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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS TEMPTING FATE AGAIN BY LOOKING AT FINAL FOUR UNDERDOGS
Even though bucking the public has hurt them significantly so far through March Madness, my discussion with sharps (professional wagerers) this week has me convinced they'll be doing that in both Final Four games scheduled this weekend.
I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again in the championship game Monday Night.
We've already seen early moves toward the favorites in both the UCLA-Memphis and Kansas-North Carolina games:
Memphis opened at -1, then moved to -2 where it sits as I write this
North Carolina opened at -3 in Las Vegas (lower at places offshore), and is currently settling in there because sharps bet Kansas whenever the public drives the line up to 3.5.
Now, the public really doesn't start betting these games until Saturday. There's an influx of tourists and locals that come into to enjoy Final Four weekend in Vegas and Reno. There's just no reason to be here before Saturday. It's pretty well assumed that more money will be hitting the favorites once that happens. In fact, the early move on Memphis actually involved some sharps taking an early position on Memphis just so they could come back over the top on UCLA after a move to a better number.
Why does everyone thing the public will be hitting the favorites? Several reasons:
The public ALWAYS hits the favorites!
The public wants to bet on the teams that just looked the most impressive. They have very short attention spans. If a team looked great in one game, they want them the next. Memphis just played two great games down in Houston, throttling Michigan State and Texas in dominant fashion. North Carolina was just as impressive taking out Washington State and Louisville. It's not just that Memphis and Carolina looked great...they were beating very strong teams by impressive margins.
The public doesn't have much faith in teams that seem lucky to still be around. Kansas almost lost at the buzzer last week to Davidson. UCLA almost lost to Texas A&M in a prime time game two Sundays ago that the whole nation was watching. If a team that looks vulnerable is up against a team that looks unbeatable...the public is going to be on the team that looks unbeatable!
The lines are low. The public tends to lay whatever the number is. But, if they see a small pointspread, they tend to make max size bets for them. North Carolina -9 against somebody is something they'll take. North Carolina -5 of -6 is something they'll be bigger. North Carolina -3 seems like a steal! They just don't think about the opponent that much. They think Carolina is going to win easily. If they don't, they still might get there with free throws. So, they gladly lay the points. Sportsbooks will have a very high handle this weekend because the public will be betting STRONG on the favorites, and sharps will be there to buy those points right back.
Well, I've outlined how the public thinks. Why are the sharps going the other way?
Most had Kansas higher than North Carolina all year in their power ratings. Kansas was seen as the better defensive team. And, they were playing in a tougher conference. North Carolina, while respected, was seen as a team that was exploiting a soft conference that lacked many inside stars. In the minds of sharps, Carolina isn't as good as they seem, while Kansas is actually the superior side. Most guys I know either have Kansas by a point here, or something near pick-em (after lifting Carolina for their recent stellar play).
West Coast bettors have a lot of respect for UCLA. They really like this coach, and they like the defensive-minded style he plays. That's something I should have mentioned earlier. The public LOVES OFFENSE! North Carolina and Memphis scored a zillion points last week. Sharps love defense. They know you have to be cautious laying big number with UCLA in a tournament game because they'll play a conservative style that doesn't consistently lead to blowouts. Give them UCLA as a dog, and they're going to be there.
The sharps have largely made their careers by going against the public. They're not going to stop now. Professional wagerers lost for an entire NFL season one year because they were going to be against the public come hell or high water. They got hit with BOTH that year...and it's happening again so far this tournament. That's okay with the sharps. They believe they'll come out way ahead in the long run by going against public sentiment. If a sharp didn't have an opinion on the game...but knew the public loved one side, he'd automatically bet the other.
I haven't talked about the totals yet. Sharps seem gun shy this week on the totals because they've been getting crushed so far! Professional wagerers prefer Unders in tournament or playoff games. The past few weekends have seen a lot of very high scoring games. Oddsmakers have been lifting the totals to match the reality on the court, and the public tendency to bet Overs. Sharps have been loading up on the Unders and taking a big hit.
Thus far, we've seen a small move to the Under in UCLA/Memphis (remember that sharps like UCLA's defense), and a small move to the Over in Kansas/North Carolina. That's such a high total already I'm tempted to think that's guys taking a position to set up a middle later. The totals guys I talk to are as hesitant as I've ever seen them. That tells me they like the Unders but are afraid to get involved.
The question for YOU this week as a legal sports wagerer, and me as an analyst is whether or not it's the public that's going to be right, or the sharps. I wrote an article last week explaining why so many sharps were struggling with the hoops right now. Those factors are still in play. The game has changed in a way that many of those guys haven't adjusted to. North Carolina and Memphis weren't impressive last week because of luck. If you're beating Louisville and Texas by double digits on neutral or somewhat neutral courts, you're doing the right things at the right times. Carolina and Memphis really were playing great at a very fast speed. If Kansas and UCLA can't keep up, then these lines are way too small. If they can, then the sharps could be right that the wrong teams are favored in both games
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS TEMPTING FATE AGAIN BY LOOKING AT FINAL FOUR UNDERDOGS
Even though bucking the public has hurt them significantly so far through March Madness, my discussion with sharps (professional wagerers) this week has me convinced they'll be doing that in both Final Four games scheduled this weekend.
I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again in the championship game Monday Night.
We've already seen early moves toward the favorites in both the UCLA-Memphis and Kansas-North Carolina games:
Memphis opened at -1, then moved to -2 where it sits as I write this
North Carolina opened at -3 in Las Vegas (lower at places offshore), and is currently settling in there because sharps bet Kansas whenever the public drives the line up to 3.5.
Now, the public really doesn't start betting these games until Saturday. There's an influx of tourists and locals that come into to enjoy Final Four weekend in Vegas and Reno. There's just no reason to be here before Saturday. It's pretty well assumed that more money will be hitting the favorites once that happens. In fact, the early move on Memphis actually involved some sharps taking an early position on Memphis just so they could come back over the top on UCLA after a move to a better number.
Why does everyone thing the public will be hitting the favorites? Several reasons:
The public ALWAYS hits the favorites!
The public wants to bet on the teams that just looked the most impressive. They have very short attention spans. If a team looked great in one game, they want them the next. Memphis just played two great games down in Houston, throttling Michigan State and Texas in dominant fashion. North Carolina was just as impressive taking out Washington State and Louisville. It's not just that Memphis and Carolina looked great...they were beating very strong teams by impressive margins.
The public doesn't have much faith in teams that seem lucky to still be around. Kansas almost lost at the buzzer last week to Davidson. UCLA almost lost to Texas A&M in a prime time game two Sundays ago that the whole nation was watching. If a team that looks vulnerable is up against a team that looks unbeatable...the public is going to be on the team that looks unbeatable!
The lines are low. The public tends to lay whatever the number is. But, if they see a small pointspread, they tend to make max size bets for them. North Carolina -9 against somebody is something they'll take. North Carolina -5 of -6 is something they'll be bigger. North Carolina -3 seems like a steal! They just don't think about the opponent that much. They think Carolina is going to win easily. If they don't, they still might get there with free throws. So, they gladly lay the points. Sportsbooks will have a very high handle this weekend because the public will be betting STRONG on the favorites, and sharps will be there to buy those points right back.
Well, I've outlined how the public thinks. Why are the sharps going the other way?
Most had Kansas higher than North Carolina all year in their power ratings. Kansas was seen as the better defensive team. And, they were playing in a tougher conference. North Carolina, while respected, was seen as a team that was exploiting a soft conference that lacked many inside stars. In the minds of sharps, Carolina isn't as good as they seem, while Kansas is actually the superior side. Most guys I know either have Kansas by a point here, or something near pick-em (after lifting Carolina for their recent stellar play).
West Coast bettors have a lot of respect for UCLA. They really like this coach, and they like the defensive-minded style he plays. That's something I should have mentioned earlier. The public LOVES OFFENSE! North Carolina and Memphis scored a zillion points last week. Sharps love defense. They know you have to be cautious laying big number with UCLA in a tournament game because they'll play a conservative style that doesn't consistently lead to blowouts. Give them UCLA as a dog, and they're going to be there.
The sharps have largely made their careers by going against the public. They're not going to stop now. Professional wagerers lost for an entire NFL season one year because they were going to be against the public come hell or high water. They got hit with BOTH that year...and it's happening again so far this tournament. That's okay with the sharps. They believe they'll come out way ahead in the long run by going against public sentiment. If a sharp didn't have an opinion on the game...but knew the public loved one side, he'd automatically bet the other.
I haven't talked about the totals yet. Sharps seem gun shy this week on the totals because they've been getting crushed so far! Professional wagerers prefer Unders in tournament or playoff games. The past few weekends have seen a lot of very high scoring games. Oddsmakers have been lifting the totals to match the reality on the court, and the public tendency to bet Overs. Sharps have been loading up on the Unders and taking a big hit.
Thus far, we've seen a small move to the Under in UCLA/Memphis (remember that sharps like UCLA's defense), and a small move to the Over in Kansas/North Carolina. That's such a high total already I'm tempted to think that's guys taking a position to set up a middle later. The totals guys I talk to are as hesitant as I've ever seen them. That tells me they like the Unders but are afraid to get involved.
The question for YOU this week as a legal sports wagerer, and me as an analyst is whether or not it's the public that's going to be right, or the sharps. I wrote an article last week explaining why so many sharps were struggling with the hoops right now. Those factors are still in play. The game has changed in a way that many of those guys haven't adjusted to. North Carolina and Memphis weren't impressive last week because of luck. If you're beating Louisville and Texas by double digits on neutral or somewhat neutral courts, you're doing the right things at the right times. Carolina and Memphis really were playing great at a very fast speed. If Kansas and UCLA can't keep up, then these lines are way too small. If they can, then the sharps could be right that the wrong teams are favored in both games
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