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Houston (-1 ½) 31 EAST CAROLINA 24
East Carolina has covered the number in their last two games, but they still lost those games straight up by a combined 53 points and are not a team that I’d like to back in a near pick’em situation. Houston, meanwhile, is 3-1 straight up with their only loss coming at Michigan and my mathematical model favors the Cougars by 7 points in this game. Houston’s offense has been a bit worse than average so far this year (5.4 yards per play against teams that allow a combined 5.6 yppl on defense), but the Cougars have averaged 37 points and over 6 yards per play against the 3 bad defensive teams that they’ve faced and East Carolina is a bad defensive team (allowing 6.4 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense). With Houston capable of exploiting the Pirates’ porous defense, it will be up to the Cougars’ defense to make sure that ECU can’t keep up. That should be too tough a task, as the Pirates have managed just 4.3 yppl in their 4 games (against teams that allow a combined 5.1 yppl on defense) while averaging just 7 points per game with a high of 16 points. The Pirates have actually had a decent pass attack since Desmond Robinson took over at quarterback, as he’s averaged 6.0 yards per pass play (against teams that allow 6.0 yppp), but Houston has done a good job defending the pass (5.1 yppp allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppp) and ECU’s rushing attack is non-existent (3.3 yards per rushing play against teams that allow 4.1 yprp). Overall, Houston’s defense has played at a decent level this year, allowing 5.2 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense, so I don’t see the Pirates keeping up with the Cougars on the scoreboard in this one. I’m not sure why the line has come down from 4 points to 1 ½ points, but I’ll side with the better team in this one. dr bob
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