Tweet
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
HOW THE SHARPS HANDICAP MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
Baseball is the favorite sport of many old school sharps. It's not a high action sport with the public. But, it's one of those sports where you see the same regulars coming back to make bets year after year. Then, they sit around and watch the games on big screen TVs all day and night. They come back the next day and do it again.
The fact that there are "long term" baseball bettors suggests that they're winning. There are no long term roulette players, because you can't beat roulette on purpose. If you've been betting baseball your whole life, you must be winning or you would have run out of money!
The guys who have had success for many years tend to focus on the same fundamentals:
UNDERDOGS
It's a grinder's way to play, but that's what works in this sport. You'll often here these guys say something like "I only have to hit 50% to win money." That's true of course. It exaggerates things a bit because they do play some smaller favorites too. But, the bread and butter of experienced baseball bettors is the underdog.
They like to take underdogs when that team has its ace pitcher on the mound (say, when a .500 caliber team is taking on the Yankees or Red Sox, or another high priced opponent).
They like to take underdogs whenever high priced teams are throwing one of their worst pitchers (the fourth or fifth guy in a division leader's rotation).
Those two situations are probably the most common. Nevada sharps are constantly rooting against the very best teams because they know the value lies in going against who the public is betting on. To the degree the public bets this sport, they focus on big name high salaried teams who are supposed to win. That drives the price too high. Sharps come in and scoop up the value with aces on lesser teams, or by going against the weakest links on the top teams.
Sharps also like taking underdogs if a team has been playing well lately. Some have an uncanny sense for riding teams like Washington, Florida, or even Kansas City for a few days when things are going well with those teams. The public won't touch about a third of major league teams with a 10-foot pole. Sharps have a keen eye for when those teams have put some pieces together at a time when opponents aren't taking them seriously enough.
I also know some guys who have certain veteran pitchers they like going against. Last year a lot of guys liked to go against Barry Zito when he was favored. If a veteran is seen to have "lost his stuff" to a degree, these grizzled gambling veterans will know that before anyone else.
Favorite Sharp Underdog Plays on Opening Day: Pittsburgh (+) at Atlanta (going against the aging Glavine with the ace of Pittsburgh's staff), Kansas City (+) at Detroit (because the media keeps saying Detroit's going to be unbeatable), Texas (+) at Seattle (because Bedard had a shaky Spring). The first two won in nailbiters, but Texas couldn't get there.
TOTALS
There not as easy to beat as they used to be. But, many sharps still specialize in totals. In fact, a few guys almost look exclusively at totals because they think that's where the biggest edges are.
These bettors look at ballpark effects, weather conditions, day/night stats, umpire stats, travel situations on the day before or the day after a game. The explosion of the internet allowed them to keep this stuff easily...and other things like career batter/pitcher breakdowns. When you've got all that at your disposal, it's just not that hard to find a few good totals each day!
I think the general public would be much better served spending more time handicapping totals. I'm always amazed how squares ignore totals...or just "bet the obvious" by taking the Under when they like a pitcher, or the Over when they like an offense. I can assure you, if you're betting the obvious in Las Vegas or Reno, you're taking the worst end of the proposition. Everything's shaded against the obvious. Always has been.
Favorite Sharp Total Plays on Opening Day: Houston/San Diego Under (Oswalt and Peavy in a low scoring park). This was really the only game I heard comments about. Sharps are careful on opening day because of weather factors, and because the starters won't be going as deep now as they will in a few weeks. You can always count on the weather in San Diego!
LINE SHOPPING
It might seem odd that guys who sit around watching games all day would have the ability to shop for the best lines. Believe me, they do. These guys have contacts all over the city, making sure they get the best available numbers on the underdogs and totals they like. And, they tend to camp out at the sportsbooks that most favor their approach. Different stores have different tendencies with how they price sides and totals. Veterans will camp out at the best spot, then have contacts at other places just in case something better pops up.
In a sport like baseball, it's CRITICAL to get the best number all the time. You're talking about a bunch of games every day...and daily games for six months. Getting an extra half run on a total is going to pay off time and time again (and won't ever hurt you). Getting those extra cents on an underdog will be magnified over and over again when you're betting more than 100 underdogs in a season. The heavy action guys play a lot more dogs than that. Every cent counts.
We've got several months to talk baseball. I'll go into more specifics regarding the strategies of these guys during the course of the season. For now, I wanted to outline the basics. I'd have to say the three keys involved with EVERY winning sharp I know are underdogs, totals, and line shopping. Now, the order might be reversed from guy to guy. Maybe a few focus heavily on shopping for lines, and aren't into totals. So much. I already mentioned that some guys really emphasize totals. The point is, you'll have trouble winning money in baseball if you're not cognizant of these three keys.
Try winning money by betting nothing but favorites. You'll have nice stretches where you catch some breaks. It only takes a few losing big favorites to kill that approach though. Always happens. Try grinding out a living while NOT shopping for the best numbers. For some guys, it's the difference between making a little and making a lot. In a down season, it's the difference between making money and breaking even. Professional wagerers don't like spending six months breaking even.
Some guys do okay without totals. Why pass on some of the most beatable propositions on the board though?
HOW THE SHARPS HANDICAP MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
Baseball is the favorite sport of many old school sharps. It's not a high action sport with the public. But, it's one of those sports where you see the same regulars coming back to make bets year after year. Then, they sit around and watch the games on big screen TVs all day and night. They come back the next day and do it again.
The fact that there are "long term" baseball bettors suggests that they're winning. There are no long term roulette players, because you can't beat roulette on purpose. If you've been betting baseball your whole life, you must be winning or you would have run out of money!
The guys who have had success for many years tend to focus on the same fundamentals:
UNDERDOGS
It's a grinder's way to play, but that's what works in this sport. You'll often here these guys say something like "I only have to hit 50% to win money." That's true of course. It exaggerates things a bit because they do play some smaller favorites too. But, the bread and butter of experienced baseball bettors is the underdog.
They like to take underdogs when that team has its ace pitcher on the mound (say, when a .500 caliber team is taking on the Yankees or Red Sox, or another high priced opponent).
They like to take underdogs whenever high priced teams are throwing one of their worst pitchers (the fourth or fifth guy in a division leader's rotation).
Those two situations are probably the most common. Nevada sharps are constantly rooting against the very best teams because they know the value lies in going against who the public is betting on. To the degree the public bets this sport, they focus on big name high salaried teams who are supposed to win. That drives the price too high. Sharps come in and scoop up the value with aces on lesser teams, or by going against the weakest links on the top teams.
Sharps also like taking underdogs if a team has been playing well lately. Some have an uncanny sense for riding teams like Washington, Florida, or even Kansas City for a few days when things are going well with those teams. The public won't touch about a third of major league teams with a 10-foot pole. Sharps have a keen eye for when those teams have put some pieces together at a time when opponents aren't taking them seriously enough.
I also know some guys who have certain veteran pitchers they like going against. Last year a lot of guys liked to go against Barry Zito when he was favored. If a veteran is seen to have "lost his stuff" to a degree, these grizzled gambling veterans will know that before anyone else.
Favorite Sharp Underdog Plays on Opening Day: Pittsburgh (+) at Atlanta (going against the aging Glavine with the ace of Pittsburgh's staff), Kansas City (+) at Detroit (because the media keeps saying Detroit's going to be unbeatable), Texas (+) at Seattle (because Bedard had a shaky Spring). The first two won in nailbiters, but Texas couldn't get there.
TOTALS
There not as easy to beat as they used to be. But, many sharps still specialize in totals. In fact, a few guys almost look exclusively at totals because they think that's where the biggest edges are.
These bettors look at ballpark effects, weather conditions, day/night stats, umpire stats, travel situations on the day before or the day after a game. The explosion of the internet allowed them to keep this stuff easily...and other things like career batter/pitcher breakdowns. When you've got all that at your disposal, it's just not that hard to find a few good totals each day!
I think the general public would be much better served spending more time handicapping totals. I'm always amazed how squares ignore totals...or just "bet the obvious" by taking the Under when they like a pitcher, or the Over when they like an offense. I can assure you, if you're betting the obvious in Las Vegas or Reno, you're taking the worst end of the proposition. Everything's shaded against the obvious. Always has been.
Favorite Sharp Total Plays on Opening Day: Houston/San Diego Under (Oswalt and Peavy in a low scoring park). This was really the only game I heard comments about. Sharps are careful on opening day because of weather factors, and because the starters won't be going as deep now as they will in a few weeks. You can always count on the weather in San Diego!
LINE SHOPPING
It might seem odd that guys who sit around watching games all day would have the ability to shop for the best lines. Believe me, they do. These guys have contacts all over the city, making sure they get the best available numbers on the underdogs and totals they like. And, they tend to camp out at the sportsbooks that most favor their approach. Different stores have different tendencies with how they price sides and totals. Veterans will camp out at the best spot, then have contacts at other places just in case something better pops up.
In a sport like baseball, it's CRITICAL to get the best number all the time. You're talking about a bunch of games every day...and daily games for six months. Getting an extra half run on a total is going to pay off time and time again (and won't ever hurt you). Getting those extra cents on an underdog will be magnified over and over again when you're betting more than 100 underdogs in a season. The heavy action guys play a lot more dogs than that. Every cent counts.
We've got several months to talk baseball. I'll go into more specifics regarding the strategies of these guys during the course of the season. For now, I wanted to outline the basics. I'd have to say the three keys involved with EVERY winning sharp I know are underdogs, totals, and line shopping. Now, the order might be reversed from guy to guy. Maybe a few focus heavily on shopping for lines, and aren't into totals. So much. I already mentioned that some guys really emphasize totals. The point is, you'll have trouble winning money in baseball if you're not cognizant of these three keys.
Try winning money by betting nothing but favorites. You'll have nice stretches where you catch some breaks. It only takes a few losing big favorites to kill that approach though. Always happens. Try grinding out a living while NOT shopping for the best numbers. For some guys, it's the difference between making a little and making a lot. In a down season, it's the difference between making money and breaking even. Professional wagerers don't like spending six months breaking even.
Some guys do okay without totals. Why pass on some of the most beatable propositions on the board though?
PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !! 
Comment