Monday Trends and Indexes 03/31

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Monday, March 31

Good Luck on day #91 of 2008!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
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[pm530]

Six-pack for Monday

-- Four #1 seeds in the Final Four, so next weekend's games should make up for mostly awful games this weekend.

-- Bronx Bombers have someone whose job title is "Director of Mental Conditioning". Seriously, they do.

-- Anders Romero won the PGA Tour event this weekend in New Orleans, in just his 12th start on Tour, which gets him into the Masters in two weeks.

-- Went to movies this weekend; 17 minutes of previews and then the actual movie started. Lot of previews. 21 was pretty good movie, but didn't hold to close to book it was based on Bringing Down the House, a really great book.

-- They're making a Get Smart movie; I was probably only person in the theater who saw the TV show back in the 60's.

-- They charge $4.25 for a bottle of water at theater, which is price gouging, pure and simple.

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[pm530]

Monday's List of 13: Baseball knowledge for Opening Day.....

If you like baseball statistics, you have to buy the Bill James Goldmine it greatly resembles the original Bill James Abstract, an annual work that inspired a generation of sports fans to be deeper thinkers. Here are some tidbits for the 2008 Goldmine, not all of which are valuable, but all are interesting........

13) Micah Owings drove in 15 runs LY, the second-most of all pitchers since 1983. 12 of his 20 hits were for extra bases.

12) The last time the Atlanta Braves allowed more home runs than they hit was way back in 1988.

11) Last year, the Orioles scored 172 runs in Denial Cabrera's 34 starts (5.1 runs/start) which is solid support, but they were just 13-21 in those games. When Cabrera let leadoff man get on base, his RA in those innings was 12.38. If he got the first guy out, his RA in those innings was 2.73.

10) The Red Sox starting lineup started 84% of their games LY, no other team started more than 77% of its games, with major league average just 70%.

9) Arizona was 20-10 LY in games that they gave up four runs in; San Diego was just 9-11 in similar games.

8) Blue Jays won 12 games LY when they scored two runs, a very high number, but were just 23-40 when they scored 3-5 runs. Hard to win 12 AL games scoring just two runs.

7) Matt Cain of the Giants got just 3.16 runs per start LY, worst run support of any starting pitcher.

6) White Sox were 39-19 LY when they hit 2+ home runs, 33-71 when they didn't.

5) Adam Dunn hit 27 doubles LY, only five drove in runs.

4) Speaking of the Reds, they were 24-10 when Aaron Harang started LY, 48-80 in all other games.

3) Indians drew 180 more walks than they allowed last year.

2) From 2004-06, Brad Hawpe was 23-107 (.215) when batting in clutch situations, with 23 RBI; LY, he was 28-74 (.378), with 45 RBI, part of the reason the Rockies did so well last season.

1) Todd Helton hit 600 foul balls LY, most in major leagues.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Dunkel Index

MLB
Dunkel Index

MONDAY, MARCH 31

Game 901-902: Arizona at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Webb) 15.088; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.576
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-105); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-105); Under

Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Sheets) 14.962; Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) 15.077
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-120); N/A

Game 905-906: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Chico) 14.368; Philadelphia (Myers) 15.473
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-205); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-205); Under

Game 907-908: San Francisco at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.853; LA Dodgers (Penny) 14.786
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+160); Over

Game 909-910: NY Mets at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 15.163; Florida (Hendrickson) 14.167
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-210); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-210); Over

Game 911-912: Colorado at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 15.501; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.748
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-110); Under

Game 913-914: Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Snell) 14.463; Atlanta (Glavine) 15.773
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Over

Game 915-916: Houston at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 14.375; San Diego (Peavy) 15.140
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-155); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-155); Over

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 14.981; Detroit (Verlander) 15.530
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under

Game 919-920: Toronto at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 15.243; NY Yankees (Wang) 16.006
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-150); Over

Game 921-922: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.425; Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.158
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Under

Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.803; Cleveland (Sabathia) 15.452
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-170); Under

Game 925-926: Texas at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 14.879; Seattle (Bedard) 15.368
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-180); Under

Game 927-928: LA Angels at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.101; Minnesota (Hernandez) 15.179
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+135); Under

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Long Sheet

MLB
Long Sheet


Monday, March 31

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ARIZONA (93 - 76) at CINCINNATI (72 - 90) - 2:10 PM
BRANDON WEBB (R) vs. AARON HARANG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HARANG is 24-10 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HARANG is 24-10 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ARIZONA is 93-76 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 34-22 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 93-76 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 45-67 (-23.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
HARANG is 6-17 (-14.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BRANDON WEBB vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
WEBB is 4-2 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.169.
His team's record is 5-3 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-7. (-7.6 units)

AARON HARANG vs. ARIZONA since 1997
HARANG is 2-2 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 1.74 and a WHIP of 0.992.
His team's record is 3-3 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-0. (+6.0 units)

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MILWAUKEE (83 - 79) at CHICAGO CUBS (85 - 80) - 2:20 PM
BEN SHEETS (R) vs. CARLOS ZAMBRANO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 20-44 (-22.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 32-49 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 6-19 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 30-48 (-18.4 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 44-76 (-27.7 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 152-176 (-39.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 458-442 (-119.4 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 76-91 (-28.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 805-862 (-175.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 639-692 (-128.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
ZAMBRANO is 6-11 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ZAMBRANO is 8-13 (-13.6 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
ZAMBRANO is 6-11 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BEN SHEETS vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
SHEETS is 9-7 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.87 and a WHIP of 1.150.
His team's record is 11-11 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 12-10. (+1.0 units)

CARLOS ZAMBRANO vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
ZAMBRANO is 9-8 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.268.
His team's record is 9-10 (-5.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-8. (+1.1 units)

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WASHINGTON (73 - 89) at PHILADELPHIA (89 - 76) - 3:05 PM
MATT CHICO (L) vs. BRETT MYERS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-10 (+12.8 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 73-89 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 24-21 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 70-86 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICO is 7-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MYERS is 1-7 (-10.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MATT CHICO vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
CHICO is 1-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

BRETT MYERS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
MYERS is 6-6 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 5.30 and a WHIP of 1.410.
His team's record is 7-9 (-6.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-8. (-2.6 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (71 - 91) at LA DODGERS (82 - 80) - 4:10 PM
BARRY ZITO (L) vs. BRAD PENNY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 71-91 (-21.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-44 (-17.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 71-91 (-21.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 116-63 (+51.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 337-320 (+40.1 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BARRY ZITO vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
ZITO is 3-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.131.
His team's record is 3-3 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

BRAD PENNY vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
PENNY is 3-3 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.81 and a WHIP of 1.218.
His team's record is 7-10 (-4.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-7. (+2.3 units)

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NY METS (88 - 74) at FLORIDA (71 - 91) - 4:10 PM
JOHAN SANTANA (L) vs. MARK HENDRICKSON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 35-37 (-19.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SANTANA is 6-11 (-11.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 96-70 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 94-69 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JOHAN SANTANA vs. FLORIDA since 1997
SANTANA is 2-0 when starting against FLORIDA with an ERA of 1.59 and a WHIP of 1.059.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.1 units)

MARK HENDRICKSON vs. NY METS since 1997
No recent starts.

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COLORADO (97 - 77) at ST LOUIS (78 - 84) - 4:15 PM
JEFF FRANCIS (L) vs. ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 37-15 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 97-77 (+27.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 40-26 (+17.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 97-74 (+30.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 74-53 (+30.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
FRANCIS is 24-13 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRANCIS is 13-2 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRANCIS is 9-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRANCIS is 24-13 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JEFF FRANCIS vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
FRANCIS is 4-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 0.831.
His team's record is 5-1 (+6.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.0 units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. COLORADO since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 1-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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PITTSBURGH (68 - 94) at ATLANTA (84 - 78) - 7:10 PM
IAN SNELL (R) vs. TOM GLAVINE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 19-50 (-24.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
GLAVINE is 27-6 (+15.8 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
SNELL is 27-20 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 114-117 (-26.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

IAN SNELL vs. ATLANTA since 1997
SNELL is 1-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 5.11 and a WHIP of 1.459.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

TOM GLAVINE vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
GLAVINE is 8-5 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.28 and a WHIP of 1.322.
His team's record is 11-7 (-4.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-10. (-4.0 units)

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HOUSTON (73 - 89) at SAN DIEGO (89 - 74) - 10:05 PM
ROY OSWALT (R) vs. JAKE PEAVY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 111-130 (-30.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ROY OSWALT vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
OSWALT is 7-1 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.39 and a WHIP of 1.094.
His team's record is 8-1 (+6.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-5. (-1.6 units)

JAKE PEAVY vs. HOUSTON since 1997
PEAVY is 6-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.77 and a WHIP of 1.056.
His team's record is 6-5 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-8. (-7.2 units)

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KANSAS CITY (69 - 93) at DETROIT (88 - 74) - 1:05 PM
GIL MECHE (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 21-21 (+18.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +200 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 99-131 (+22.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
MECHE is 16-8 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 15-21 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

GIL MECHE vs. DETROIT since 1997
MECHE is 6-4 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.319.
His team's record is 8-6 (+3.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.3 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
VERLANDER is 6-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 2.26 and a WHIP of 1.045.
His team's record is 7-1 (+5.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.4 units)

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TORONTO (83 - 79) at NY YANKEES (95 - 71) - 1:05 PM
ROY HALLADAY (R) vs. CHIEN-MING WANG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 47-33 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 29-27 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ROY HALLADAY vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
HALLADAY is 10-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 2.95 and a WHIP of 1.179.
His team's record is 15-9 (+9.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-13. (-3.9 units)

CHIEN-MING WANG vs. TORONTO since 1997
WANG is 3-2 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.289.
His team's record is 4-3 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-2. (+1.6 units)

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TAMPA BAY (66 - 96) at BALTIMORE (69 - 93) - 3:05 PM
JAMES SHIELDS (R) vs. JEREMY GUTHRIE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 49-114 (-39.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 40-97 (-36.9 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 32-83 (-33.6 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 429-467 (-105.1 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 153-205 (-65.3 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 429-467 (-105.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JAMES SHIELDS vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
SHIELDS is 1-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.67 and a WHIP of 1.265.
His team's record is 2-5 (-3.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.5 units)

JEREMY GUTHRIE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
GUTHRIE is 1-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.611.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)

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CHI WHITE SOX (72 - 90) at CLEVELAND (102 - 71) - 3:05 PM
MARK BUEHRLE (L) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 46-62 (-25.7 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 48-24 (+16.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 49-68 (-30.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MARK BUEHRLE vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
BUEHRLE is 7-11 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.65 and a WHIP of 1.358.
His team's record is 13-15 (-6.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 12-14. (-3.4 units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
SABATHIA is 14-3 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.48 and a WHIP of 1.230.
His team's record is 16-7 (+8.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-14. (-7.4 units)

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TEXAS (75 - 87) at SEATTLE (88 - 74) - 6:40 PM
KEVIN MILLWOOD (R) vs. ERIK BEDARD (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 88-74 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-5 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 83-67 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BEDARD is 9-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 72-77 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

KEVIN MILLWOOD vs. SEATTLE since 1997
MILLWOOD is 7-6 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 4.28 and a WHIP of 1.468.
His team's record is 8-7 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-5. (+1.2 units)

ERIK BEDARD vs. TEXAS since 1997
BEDARD is 4-1 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.084.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)

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LA ANGELS (94 - 71) at MINNESOTA (79 - 83) - 7:05 PM
JERED WEAVER (R) vs. LIVAN HERNANDEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 42-45 (-20.1 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JERED WEAVER vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
WEAVER is 2-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 2.11 and a WHIP of 0.797.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

LIVAN HERNANDEZ vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 0-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 6.87 and a WHIP of 2.345.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Monday, March 31

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Webb allowed four runs in seven IP in his only '07 start vs the Reds; Arizona was 5-2 in his last seven starts, with under 14-3 in his last 17 starts. Reds were 24-10 when Harang started last season, 48-80 in all other games- he allowed one run in six IP in his only start against Diamondbacks last season.

Zambrano was 3-0, 0.67 in his last four '07 starts, 2-1, 4.62 in his four starts against Brewers LY. Eight of his last nine starts went under total. Milwaukee was 14-5 in last 19 Sheets starts; he was 2-1, 3.91 in four '07 starts against the Cubs.

Nationals won in last inning last night; Chico was 1-0, 4.22 in a pair of '07 starts vs Philly. Four of his last five starts went over total. Myers allowed 16 runs in 14.1 IP in three starts, then got moved to bullpen LY-- now he's back as Opening Day starter.

Santana makes Mets' debut; he beat Florida 7-4 LY, allowing two runs in six IP, but was 1-5, 5.08 in his last six starts. Florida is so awful they're using Hendrickson as Opening Day starter; Dodgers lost eight of his last ten starts for them in 2007.

Colorado was red-hot last fall, but went just 4-4 in Francis' last eight starts; he was 1-0, 2.45 in pair of starts vs St Louis- they were 12-7 in his road starts. Cardinals are 4-1 in Wainwright's last five home starts; he beat Rockies 9-2 LY (two runs/six IP).

Snell had 2.18 RA in his last five '07 starts; he was 1-1, 6.75 in a pair of '07 starts vs Braves, who lost in ninth inning last night, despite not allowing a baserunner in innings 2-8. Glavine was
0-2, 14.81 in his last three '07 starts; he beat Pirates 6-3 in July, allowing three runs in six IP.

Padres were 10-4 in last 14 Peavy starts LY; over was 5-2 in his last seven starts. He was 1-0, 1.29 in two '07 starts vs Houston. Oswalt had 2.86 RA in his last three starts, but Astros lost all three, anyway- six of his last seven starts stayed under total.

Detroit was 8-3 in last 11 Verlander starts; under was 4-1-1 in his last six outings. He was 3-0, 4.38 in four starts vs Royals, as the Tigers scored 35 runs in the four games. Meche was 1-1, 4.50 in three starts vs Detroit LY; he allowed three or less runs in his last ten starts last season.

Wang allowed 12 runs in 5.2 IP_ in playoff series vs Indians in '07; he was 0-2, 6.88 in three starts vs Toronto LY, as Toronto won all three games. Halladay was 1-0, 3.57 in his three starts against Bronx LY; Blue Jays were 2-9 in his last ten road starts.

Rays are 5-1 in last six Shields starts; he was 1-2, 3.89 against Orioles LY, starting five times. Under was 6-2-1 in his last nine starts. Guthrie was 1-1, 5.00 in three starts vs Tampa LY; O's lost six of his last eight starts (over was 7-2 in his last nine).

Sabathia was 2-0, 2.57 in three '07 starts vs Chicago; nine of his last 12 starts LY stayed under total. Buehrle had 5.30 RA in his four starts vs Indians LY; four of his last five starts went over total. Tribe was 14-5 at home with Sabathia LY.

Bedard makes Seattle debut here; he was 2-0, 1.13 in two starts vs Texas LY; over was 3-1-1 in his last five starts. Millwood is
1-3, 6.06 in his last five starts against Seattle- under is 8-3 in his last eleven starts, with Texas losing three of the last four.

Torii Hunter starts his Angel career back in Metrodome; with Weaver (2-1, 2.11 vs Twins in '07) on hill for Halos- Weaver was 2-1, 3.27 in his last four starts LY. Livan Hernandez is making Twins/AL debut; he was 2-3, 5.35 in his last six Arizona starts.
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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


Monday, March 31

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Tips and Trends
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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees [ESPN | 1:05 PM ET]

Blue Jays: The Blue Jays mantra throughout spring training was to stay healthy, and they did so, until 3B Scott Rolen went down with a broken finger and SP Casey Janssen suffered a torn labrum. Ace Roy Halladay will take the mound, and he's enjoyed plenty of success against the Yankees. The right-hander is 7-1 with a 2.04 ERA in his last 12 starts against New York, and went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA overall in 2007.

The OVER is 7-3 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.

Key Injuries - 3B Scott Rolen (finger) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Yankees (-150, O/U 9): For the first time in 13 years, the New York Yankees will not have Joe Torre in their dugout. Looking to bounce back from a rough end to his season is opening day starter Chien-Ming Wang, who went 19-7 with a 3.70 ERA in 2007. However, Wang struggled in the playoffs, going 0-2 with a 19.06 ERA against Cleveland and said it took a month just to get over his performances. The right-hander didn't beat the Blue Jays last season, going 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in three starts, but was a solid 10-game winner at Yankees Stadium.

Yankees are 41-17 in their last 58 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5




Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs [ESPN2 | 2:20 PM ET]

Brewers : Despite its late collapse, Milwaukee is coming off its first winning season since 1992 and still boasts one of the majors most potent lineups. The Brewers added veterans Eric Gagne, Salomon Torres and Guillermo Mota to help bolster their Bullpen unit. Ben Sheets will make his sixth opening day start, who looking to improve to 4-0 in openers. The right-hander went 12-5 with a 3.82 ERA last season."It's still a rush (to pitch on opening day)," said Sheets, who is 9-7 with a 3.87 ERA versus Chicago including 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA at Wrigley Field in 2007.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 game against the Cubs.

Key Injuries - NONE

Cubs (-120, O/U no line): For the first time since 2001, the Cubs are opening at home. They'll have most of their lineup from 2007 in place, with the only major difference being the major league debut of right fielder Kosuke Fukodome. Carlos Zambrano opens on the mound and is 9-8 with a 4.21 ERA against Milwaukee in his career, and was 2-1 in four starts versus the Brewers last season. However, the staff ace is 0-1 with an 8.16 ERA in his past three openers. The Cubs went 9-6 against the Brewers in 2007, winning five of nine meetings at Wrigley Field.

The OVER is 13-6-2 in the last 21 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD




San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers [ESPN | 4:10 PM ET]


Giants: It could be a long year in San Francisco. Barry Bonds is gone, and even with Aaron Rowand coming to town there are concerns throughout the roster. The starting pitching was sloppy in spring, and the bullpen is untested. The offense ranked among the worst in the majors during spring training as well. Barry Zito has a new windup (no hands above the head anymore), but is getting this Opening Day start based on his experience (and contract) rather than his numbers in 2007 (11-13 4.53 ERA)

Giants are 9-19 in the last 28 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Dodgers (-175, O/U 8): The Dodgers will begin the season with one of the deepest rotations in the league, under new manager Joe Torre. However, Los Angeles' lineup will be bit off on Opening Day after suffering three key injuries in spring training: Nomar Garciaparra, Andy LaRoche, and Jeff Kent. Brad Penny will get the start on Opening Day, who was 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA , including allowing just 1 earned run to the Giants in his first start of last season.

Dodgers are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall.

Key Injuries - 2B Jeff Kent (hamstring) hopes to play.
3B Normar Garciaparra (hand) is OUT.
IF Andy LaRoche (thumb) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4




Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins [ESPN2 | 7:05 PM ET] | Full Matchup

Angels (-140, O/U 9.5): The Angels were confident the addition of Torii Hunter would upgrade their offense sufficiently to compete with the heavy lumber in the American League as long as their pitching remained top caliber. That plan has taken repeated hits this spring with injuries to starters John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. Anaheim's offense is stacked and built around a jam-packed outfield. Jered Weaver will get the start after finishing the 2007 season with a 13-7 record and a 3.91 ERA. Weaver has looked strong in spring training, and went 6-4 on the road last year.

Angels are 2-7 in their last 9 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side Play of the Day)

Twins: Minnesota's rotation is the biggest question mark this season, thanks to the loss of Johan Santana. Four-fifths of the rotation has never held a major league starting spot for an entire season. The Twins do have a deep bullpen with Joe Nathan and company, as well as a stacked middle-of the order lineup with Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, and Justin Morneau. Veteran Livan Hernandez will be making his first start for the Twins, after going 11-11 with a 4.93 ERA with Arizona last season, as he is the only vet on this young rotation.

Twins are 4-9 in their last 13 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 4





Houston Astros at San Diego Padres [ESPN2 | 10:05 PM ET] | Full Matchup

Astros: The Astros will open the season with one starting position player on the DL in 2B Kaz Matsui. The starting lineup, which was bolstered by the trades for shortstop Miguel Tejada and the signing of second baseman Kaz Matsui, was potent in the spring and scored runs in bunches. One of the major problems for Houston in the spring was its bullpen, but hopefully it wont be needed with ace Roy Oswalt taking the hill. Oswalt was 14-7 last year with a 3.18 ERA, including going 11-2 with a 2.17 ERA under the lights.

The UNDER is 9-2-2 in the last 13 meetings.

Key Injuries - 2B Kaz Matsui (surgery) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Padres (-155, O/U 6.5): San Diego, thanks to an injury to center fielder Jim Edmonds, has only one proven major league starter (Brian Giles) in the outfield. Still, the Padres look to be a contender in the National League West with a strong pitching staff that led the league in ERA (3.68) last season. Runs, however, could be hard to come by, particularly at Petco Park, where the Padres hit only .235 and scored four runs a game last season. Ace Jake Peavy went 19-6 last year, and was dominate with 2.51 ERA at home.

Padres are 13-5 in their last 18 home games.

Key Injuries - CF Jim Edmonds (calf) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Preview

MLB


Monday, March 31

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Gameday
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Monday MLB Gameday

Baseball's regular season really gets going on Monday, with most of the league's teams in action. Here's a look at a few of the notable matchups in your first MLB Gameday …

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, 2:20pm ET
Ben Sheets (0-0) vs. Carlos Zambrano (0-0)

The Brewers ended up two games back of the Cubs in the race for first place in the NL Central last season, and they'll be looking for a better result this time around. Milwaukee will send ace Ben Sheets to the mound in the opener. The righthander was limited to just 24 starts last season due to injury but he went 12-5 with a 3.82 ERA over that span.

The Cubs' first-place finish didn't lead to any playoff success for them last season, so their World Series drought continues into 2008. Carlos Zambrano will get the ball for Chicago on Monday, and he went 18-13 with a 3.95 ERA for the team last season. Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome will make his Major League debut in this game.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians, 3:05pm ET
Mark Buehrle (0-0) vs. C.C. Sabathia (0-0)

The White Sox crashed to just 72 wins in 2007, and they ended up 24 games back of first-place Cleveland in the AL Central. Chicago will be looking to get on the road to recovery on Monday, when they send ace Mark Buehrle to the mound to battle the Tribe. The lefthander went only 10-9 over his 30 starts last year, with a solid 3.63 ERA.

Cleveland won the AL Central by eight games over the Tigers in 2007, and Indians fans are hoping that their team can hold off that improved Detroit squad once again in 2008. C.C. Sabathia will take the mound for the Indians on Monday, and he's coming off a Cy Young campaign; the lefthander had a 19-7 record last season and posted a 3.21 ERA.

Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, 4:15pm ET
Jeff Francis (0-0) vs. Adam Wainwright (0-0)

The Rockies surged into the playoffs and all the way to the World Series last season, but time will tell if that accomplishment was a fluke or a sign of great things to come. Jeff Francis gets the nod for Colorado on opening day, and he broke out with a 17-9 record over 34 starts last season. The Canadian lefthander ended up with a 4.22 ERA.

The Cardinals ended up behind both the Brewers and the Cubs in the NL Central last season, and an injury-riddled pitching staff could have them sinking even farther in the division in 2008. Adam Wainwright went 14-12 with a 3.70 ERA for St. Louis last season, and with ace Chris Carpenter still sidelined he'll get the start on opening day.

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, 7:05pm ET
Jered Weaver (0-0) vs. Livan Hernandez (0-0)

The Angels finished six games ahead of the second-place Mariners in the AL West in 2007, but they'll have to start their defense of that division crown with top starters John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar on the disabled list. That means Jered Weaver will get the nod for opening day; the young righthander had a 13-7 mark and a 3.91 ERA last year.

Minnesota ended up 17 games behind the Indians in the AL Central in 2007, and they dealt away ace starter Johan Santana to the Mets over the winter. And with Francisco Liriano beginning the season in the minors the team's opening-day start will go to Livan Hernandez; the righthander went 11-11 with a 4.93 ERA for the Diamondbacks in 2007.

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[pm530]

MLB
”Baseball Today”


Monday, March 31

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Baseball Today
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This Day in Baseball History
March 31

"It's just throwing and catching and hitting and running. What's simpler than that?" -PAUL RICHARDS, Oriole manager (1955-1961)

1958 Indians Gene Woodling, Dick Williams and Bud Daley are traded to the Orioles for Larry Doby and Don Ferrarese.

1959 The Pacific Coast League proposal to use a designated hitter is voted down by the Professional Baseball Rules Committee. Prompted by the Cubs' college of coaches, the committee also rules each team must name a manager 30 minutes prior to the game.

1968 The AL's new franchise in Seattle chooses Pilots as its nickname.

1982 Rangers trade outfielder/first baseman Al Oliver to the Expos for outfielder/third baseman Larry Parrish and minor league first baseman Dave Hostetler.

1993 Bill White, the first black to serve as a league president, resigns from his NL post. The former Cardinal first baseman will remain at the job until March of 1994.

1994 Mets trade hard-luck righthander Anthony Young to the Cubs for shortstop Jose Vizcaino. Young holds the major league record for the most consecutive losses by a pitcher.

1994 The White Sox assign NBA superstar Michael Jordan to Birmingham Barons of the Class AA Southern League.

1996 For the first time in history, the major league season opens in March with Mariners beating the White Sox in 12 innings, 3-2.

1998 At Atlanta's Turner Field, all-time home run leader and fan favorite, Hank Aaron, helps to mark Milwaukee's historic return to the National League with a rare on-the-field appearance.

1998 In front of a sellout crowd of 47,484 at Bank One Ballpark, the Arizona Diamondback lose to the Rockies, 9-2. The seven run difference matches the '62 Mets and the '77 Mariners for the most-lopsided lost by an expansion team in their first game.

1998 The Brewers play their inaugural game as a National League team and lose to the Braves at Turner Field, 2-1. Milwaukee is the first team since the inception of the American League in 1901 to switch leagues.

2005 The Orioles and MLB agree on a deal which will allow Nationals games to be televised. A joint venture backed by MLB will allow fans in the Baltimore-Washington area to enjoy telecasts of both franchises and will ensure the Orioles fans in the nation’s capitol will still have an opportunity to watch their ‘Birds’.

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[pm530]

College Basketball – Long Sheet

NCAAB
Long Sheet


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Monday, March 31

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BRADLEY (20 - 15) at TULSA (23 - 13) - 3/31/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
TULSA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all home games this season.
TULSA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games this season.
TULSA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in March games this season.
TULSA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
TULSA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TULSA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
BRADLEY is 58-39 ATS (+15.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BRADLEY is 58-39 ATS (+15.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BRADLEY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Tuesday, April 1

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MASSACHUSETTS (24 - 10) vs. FLORIDA (24 - 11) - 4/1/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
MASSACHUSETTS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OLE MISS (24 - 10) vs. OHIO ST (22 - 13) - 4/1/2008, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLE MISS is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
OHIO ST is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OLE MISS is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[pm530]

College Basketball – Write up

NCAAB
Write-up


Monday, March 31

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Monday's CBI Game

Tulsa won seven of last eight games, losing only to Memphis when they were playing fourth game in four days; Hurricane is 9-0 in last nine home games, covering last eight. Bradley won its three CBI games, going +2, +19 and +11 in second halves of their games- Braves led at half in only one of last seven games. These teams were once conference rivals, back in 80's. By the way, this is first of best-of-3 series for first CBI championship.

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Monday, March 31

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NBA Games

Miami lost 88-62 in Boston yesterday, their 14th loss in last 16 games- they scored 69-62 pts in last two games. Four of their last five games stayed under total, but four of last five Pacers' games went over. Indiana covered four in a row as a favorite.

Raptors lost at home to Hornets yesterday; they're 3-8 in their last 11 games- six of their last eight games stayed under total, as did eight of last nine Bobcat games. Charlotte won three in row, all on road, beating Lakers, Portland and Supersonics.

Hawks won three in row, seven of last nine games, with its last three games going over total; they beat Memphis 86-78 Dec 8 (-4.5). Grizzlies are 2-20 in last 22 road games, losing three of its last four overall, with losses by 14-1-13 points.

Wizards lost in OT at Staples last night, just their third loss in last ten games- under is 5-2-1 in their last eight. Wiz lost 96-87 at home to Utah Feb 1 (+5). Jazz covered seven of last nine at home- their last three games all went over the total.

Nuggets are in 3-way tie for last two playoff spots in the west; they won last five games, scoring 118.2 ppg- home team won both their games vs Phoenix this season. Suns won nine of last 11 games- they covered their last five home games.

Dallas lost in Oakland last night; they're also in a 3-way tie for last two playoff spots in west; Mavs lost five of last six games, with last three going over total. Clippers are 1-10 in last eleven games; they're 2-16 vs spread in game after their last 18 wins.

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Tips & Trends

NBA


Monday, March 31

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Tips and Trends
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Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns [NBA | 10 PM ET

Nuggets: With a 119-112 win Saturday over Golden State, the Nuggets suddenly find themselves in the playoffs as of right now. Denver is averaging 110 ppg this season and has won 5 straight and 8 of 10, outscoring opponents by 16 points during that stretch. The Nuggets scored 126 points the last time they faced this Suns defense, and according to team insiders the players know the race in the West is on.

The OVER is 20-8 in the Nuggets last 28 overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 117

Suns (-5.5, O/U 236): Coach Mike D?Antoni played only seven players on the second night of a back-to-back situation on Saturday Night against the Nets and escaped with a 6-point victory. Phoenix endured a cross-country flight and tried to catch a breather on Sunday, getting ready for this game, after the starters played close to 40 minutes in that victory. The Suns are 24-17-1 ATS this season on 1 days rest and have won their last 5 home games by an average of 15 points.

The OVER is 9-3 in the Suns last 12 home games.

Key Injuries - F Grant Hill (13 ppg; groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 123 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Monday, March 31

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Today's NHL analysis

Hot Teams
-- Penguins won ten of last thirteen games.
-- Tampa Bay won last three games, allowing five goals.

Cold Teams
-- Rangers lost three of their last four games.
-- Thrashers lost sixteen of last nineteen games.

Series Records
-- Rangers won four of last six against Pittsburgh, with home team 8-1 in last nine series games; they lost 3-1 in Pittsburgh Sunday afternoon.
-- Lightning lost their last four games against Atlanta.

Totals
-- Last four Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Atlanta-Tampa games went over total.

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[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel


Bradley at Tulsa
Tulsa hosts the first game tonight in the best of three series for the CBI championship and comes in with a 16-2 record at home. But Bradley has played well on the road with a 7-1 record ATS in its last eight games, including a win at Virginia in the semifinals. The Braves are the underdog pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Tulsa favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, MARCH 31

Game 613-614: Bradley at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 63.230; Tulsa 67.957
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+5 1/2)