Football Newsletters 9/29-10/5 (update #1)

[Sports Guru]

POINTWISE COLLEGIATE & PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1* MEMPHIS over Alabama-B'ham
1* WISCONSIN over Penn State
2* OREGON over Utah
3* GEORGIA TECH over No Carolina St
4* NAVY over Air Force
4* MARYLAND over Clemson
5* SO CALIFORNIA over Arizona State
5* BOWLING GREEN over Central Mich

NFL KEY RELEASES
2* DALLAS over Arizona
3* CAROLINA over New Orleans
4* SAN DIEGO over Jacksonville
4* WASHINGTON over Philadelphia
5* MINNESOTA over Atlanta

Detailed Analysis of Top Rated College Key Selections

Wisconsin 27 - PENN STATE (HC) 17-(12:00)- Lion overland game is finally perking, but Nits were stung for at least 250 RYs in each of their 3 losses, thus check >300 RYs by UW (193 by Smith) vs Illini, which had held all 4 previous foes to under 127 RYs. Badgers had nearly a 14 minute time edge vs Illinois, & suffered 5 TOs in their only loss. And PSt's QB Mills is now hurting (ankle).

MEMPHIS (HC) 38 - Alabama-Birmingham 14-(2:00)- Tigers are only sloppy letdown showing at SoMiss from unbeaten ranks (6 TOs in that loss). Three more TDs for Wimprine LW, & RB Williams provides the balance (led ArkySt 35-6 at the half). Uab can't run, can't stop the run, & owes for LY's gift upset.

Oregon 31 - UTAH 20-(10:00 - espn2)- Both squads in revenge sandwiches. LW, Ducks had 9 TOs, while Utes had 6 takeaways. Even in that debacle, Oregon held potent WashSt to 15-of-35 passing, & just 2.1 ypr. Utah ran a fumble back 80 yds in final 1:33 for cover vs ColoSt, & has the balance behind Smith & Warfield, but Ducks should bounce back from worst loss in since '77.

North Carolina State 31 - GEORGIA TECH (HC) 30-(3:30)- Over 600 yds for that sizzling 'Pack "O" vs UNC, but have allowed 56 FDs & 1,055 yds past 2 wks. Rivers has topped 400 PYs twice in the early going, but that Tech "D" has been decent for the most part. Jackets barely escaped Vandy, but stay in this.

Detailed Analysis of Top Rated College Key Selections

DALLAS 34 - Arizona 17-(1:00)- The man is a genius. Check Dallas' win at the Jets. That's right, a 202-66 RY edge, on the heels of 149-98 & 107-53 advantages in their first 2 games, with Hambrick emerging as the "go-to' back. The only slight reservation here is the fact that the visitor has covered all 3 Cowboy games to date. However, the Cards are just the squad to end such a trend. 'Zona was stung for 34 FDs in its loss to the Rams, & has now allowed 38, 38, 49, 30, 37, 42, & 37 pts in its last 8 RGs! Parcells rarely lets a solid chalk situation get away, & won't here. It's the 'Boys in this contest.

CAROLINA 23 - New Orleans 10-(1:00)-The Panthers are yet anotherpleasant surprise, with their perfect 3-0 log, both SU & ATS. If the exhibition season is included, make it 7-0 both SU & ATS. Their defense has allowed no TDs since the 2nd quarter of their opener, & check 6 blocked kicks thus far. Offensively, they've gotten 142 & 153 RY efforts by Davis in their last 2 outings. Contrast that to the Saints having but one win, along with losses of 17, 15, & 34 pts. On the road, New Orleans has managed only 10 & 12 pts. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS after holding a foe below 15 pts, & are 7-1 ATS as division HFs.

[Sports Guru]

RED SHEET

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
89* TEXAS TECH
89* NORTHWESTERN
88* MEMPHIS
88* CALIFORNIA
88* NEBRASKA
88* DALLAS (NFL)

TEXAS TECH 52 - Texas A&M 31 - (3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Texas Tech minus 6½, and is still minus 6½. No shock that the Raiders lead the nation in total offense (572 ypg; 38 ypg over #2), as well as passing offense (495 ypr; 115 ypg over #2). QB Symons has done the near impossible,by actually out-statting the brilliant Kingsbury. He leads the land in total "O" with 509 ypg, & has thrown for 586 & 661 PYs the past 2 weeks! No, the Raiders have not missed a beat offensively, from their scintillating squad of a year ago. The Aggies are also on the offensive rise, & with Franchione at the helm, & will be a force for years. But Tech owns this series, while the Aggies are still among worst dog plays. Buck revenge. RATING: TEXAS TECH 89

Minnesota 31 - NORTHWESTERN 30 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Minnesota minus 8½, and is now minus 10½. It is rare when a spread moves our way, but such is the case here. The Gophers are suddenly a "public" squad, off their super start, in which they've topped 40 pts in all but their trip to PennSt last week, while reaching 250 yds in all 5. As noted earlier in the week, Minny is off to its best start in 16 years. But despite those plaudits, this one sets up nicely for the Wildcats. Catching the Gophers in a PennSt/Michigan sandwich cannot be lightly discarded, & note that Northwestern dominated a suddenly respectable Kansas unit; out-stated AirForce; & piled up 522 yds in 12-pt cover at Minny last year. Dog series. RATING: NORTHWESTERN 89

MEMPHIS 40 - Alabama-Birmingham 14 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Memphis minus 11, and is now minus 9. Three weeks ago, we pegged the Tigers as a Superior Red Sheet Play, in their trip to SoMiss. Well, that one didn't pan out, as Memphis turned into a turnover machine, with 3interceptions, 3 fumbles, & an 87-yd Eagle punt return contributing heavily to the 23-6 loss. That marks the only misstep for the Tigers, who are still smarting over losing to the Blazers LY, thanks to a pair of Uab TDs on fumble recoveries. Birmingham is yet to cover, with their only SU win coming over hapless Baylor, by a narrow 5 pts. Blazers had last week off, but their lack of an overland game is glaring, & will pay the price for last 3 years. RATING: MEMPHIS 88

CALIFORNIA 27 - Oregon State 20 - (5:00) -- Line opened at Oregon St minus 2, and is now minus 1½. The Bears shocked the gridiron world, with last week's OT win over mighty Southern Cal, thereby snapping the Trojans' 11-game winning streak, the final 10 of which represented double digit triumphs. Statwise, Cal had edges in all categories, which is foreign to foes ot USC, which has posted some awesome box score edges since the start of the '02 season. With that success, many would figure that a letdown is automatic, with these Beavers taking full advantage. But the home team is 11-of-14 in OSt games, including an outright upset loss (9½ pt ATS setback) in its only RG to date. Wrong team is favored. RATING: CALIFORNIA 88

NEBRASKA 45 - Troy State 10 - (1:30) -- Line opened at Nebraska minus 27½, and is still minus 27½. Just the opposite of the above game, where we bucked the letdown theory, in backing a team which pulled a major upset the previous week. In this one, we embrace the theory. In upsetting Marshall, the Trojans of Troy St actually caught the Herd in a perfect setup, namely having to travel after a pair of highly emotional contests, a home upset loss, & a road upset of KansasSt. Travelling to Lincoln, on the heels of that one, is pure poison. It only serves to alert the unbeaten 'Huskers, preventing any "look-ahead" to Missouri. Troy was destroyed by a combined 89-12 in its trips to KansSt & Minnesota. 'Nuff said. RATING: NEBRASKA 88

DALLAS 34 - Arizona 16 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Dallas minus 7½, and is still minus 7½. Carryover from earlier publication, with nothing occurring in the interim, which would lower its status. The 'Boys stumbled out of the gate, with that 2nd half collapse vs the Falcons, but have done themselves proud since, with upsets of both NY teams (10½ &14 pt ******). And note that Dallas won its 2 preseason HGs by 34-6 & 52-23 scores. The Cowboys are in the mold of all Parcells outfits, & have dominated overland. Compare that to 'Zona failing to reach 100 RYs, with just 36 RYs in its embarrassment at StLouis. On the road, the Cards have been defenseless, & hardly figure to suddenly find a stop unit to contain the 'Boys. RATING: DALLAS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87) : Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Texas, Akron -- NFL: Buffalo, Denver, & Tampa Bay

[hammertime]

you do a fine job GURU

ALWAYS WELL DETAILED.

THANKS

[Baseball_Nut]

Guru

i like your write ups

interesting:D

[Capps]

Long time reader, first time poster! Love detail. Off on 1 stat though, Carolina isn't perfect ATS, didn't cover 1st game of year vs. Jags. They were -4 and won 24-23!