Thursday Trends and Indexes 03/20

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet


Thursday, March 20th

San Antonio at Chicago, 8:05 ET TNT
San Antonio: 10-1 Under Away off SU loss
Chicago: 3-12 ATS off home win

Boston at Dallas, 8:35 ET
Boston: 8-2 ATS in March
Dallas: 2-6 ATS after a loss by 6 points

Miami at Toronto, 7:05 ET TNT
Miami: 23-8 Under playing their 3rd road game in 5 days
Toronto: 2-9 ATS playing with 2 days rest

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet


Thursday, March 20th

Montreal at Boston, 7:05 ET
Montreal: n/a
Boston: n/a

St. Louis at Ottawa, 7:35 ET
St. Louis: 7-2 SU in road games in non-conference games
Ottawa: 2-10 SU in home games after allowing 5 goals or more

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh, 7:35 ET
Tampa Bay: 14-23 SU after one or more consecutive overs
Pittsburgh: 20-11 SU after 1 or more consecutive losses

Carolina at Florida, 7:35 ET
Carolina: 15-5 SU after playing a game where 8 or more total goals
Florida: 9-17 SU as a home favorite of -200 or less

Detroit at Nashville, 8:05 ET
Detroit: 1-8 SU in road games after 2 consecutive division games
Nashville: 72-61 SU after having lost 3 of their last 4

Colorado at Calgary, 9:05 ET
Colorado: 17-6 SU in March games
Calgary: 1-5 SU in home games revenging a close loss

Vancouver at Edmonton, 10:05 ET
Vancouver: 19-5 SU when playing with 2 days rest
Edmonton: 10-20 SU in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 4 or more

Los Angeles at Phoenix, 10:05 ET
Los Angeles: 5-18 SU as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Phoenix: 17-7 SU vs. division opponents

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NIT
Short Sheet


Thursday, March 20th

NIT Tournament
Second Round
Bottom Team Is Home

Maryland at Syracuse, 7:00 ET ESPNU
Maryland: 14-5 ATS in road games
Syracuse: 0-7 ATS off a home win scoring 85+ points

Southern Illinois at Arizona State, 11:59 ET ESPN2
Southern Illinois: 29-12 ATS after allowing 55 points or less
Arizona State: 8-1 Under after covering 2 of their last 3 ATS

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NCAAB - Friday
Short Sheet


Friday, March 21


Midwest Region - RBC Center (Raleigh, NC)

#10 Davidson vs. #7 Gonzaga [CBS | 12:25 PM ET]

Davidson (-2, O/U 139.5): The Wildcats bring a nation-leading 19-game winning streak into the Big Dance and played a very tough non-conference slate that included meetings with Duke, North Carolina and UCLA. All 5 starters are back from last year's NCAA Tournament team, and they led the Southern Conference in free-throw shooting.

PROJECTED SCORE: 71

The UNDER is 8-2 in Davidson?s last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

Gonzaga: The Bulldogs have become an annual staple in the Big Dance, making the NCAA Tournament in each of the last 10 years. However, this is not one of their best teams, which was proven again in a loss to San Diego in the West Coast Conference Tournament title game. Point guard Jeremy Pargo will face a lot of pressure defensively trying to keep up with Davidson's Stephen Curry (25.3 points per game), which could affect him on the offensive end.

PROJECTED SCORE: 69

Gonzaga is 2-4 ATS in 6 games on neutral courts this season.

Key Injuries - NONE



#15 UMBC vs. #2 Georgetown [CBS | 2:55 PM ET]

UMBC: The Retrievers could be a dangerous 15 seed. They shoot 39 percent from 3-point range and have a number of players that can hoist the long ball. UMBC also hits its free throws, connecting on 73 percent of its attempts this season. The Retrievers only lost one game by double-digits all year, a 24-point defeat at West Virginia.

PROJECTED SCORE: 60 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Maryland-Baltimore County is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

Georgetown (-16.5, O/U 130): The Hoyas shared a common opponent with Maryland-Baltimore County in West Virginia. While the Retrievers suffered their worst loss of the season at Morgantown, Georgetown beat the Mountaineers twice, including a 72-55 victory in the Big East Tournament semifinals. Even though Georgetown lost to Pitt in the tourney title game, this is a battle-tested team that played a very rugged Big East schedule and won the regular-season championship.

PROJECTED SCORE: 76

The OVER is 4-1 in Georgetown's last 5 games overall.
The UNDER is 9-2 in Georgetown's last 11 NCAA Tournament games.

Key Injuries - NONE



Midwest Region - St. Pete Times Forum (Tampa, FL)

#13 Siena vs. #4 Vanderbilt [CBS | 7:20 PM ET]

Siena: The Saints are a trendy pick to upset Vanderbilt in the first round. Siena backers will point to the fact that the Saints upset Stanford earlier in the year but keep in mind Siena also lost to St. Joseph?s, Syracuse, Cornell and got blasted by 44 points at Memphis. Siena shoots a ton of three-pointers and we saw what can happen when they struggle from beyond the arc. Against Memphis, the Saints only hit 9-of-21 attempts from long range and got outrebounded by 18 in a 102-58 drubbing at the hands of the Tigers. If the three-ball isn?t falling on Friday for the Saints, Siena?s chances of sticking with Vandy are slim.

PROJECTED SCORE: 73

The UNDER is 4-0 in Siena?s last 4 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

Vanderbilt (-7, O/U 153.5): The Commodores were a mediocre 6-6 in regular-season road/neutral games, which does not bode well in the Big Dance. While they are a very talented team and can get up for any opponent (see their upset of #1 Tennessee earlier this season), they can fall flat just the same, proven in losing 2 of 3 games after that big win.

PROJECTED SCORE: 80

The OVER is 4-1 in Vanderbilt?s last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE



#12 Villanova vs. #5 Clemson [CBS | 9:50 PM ET]

Villanova: The Wildcats underachieved most of the season until making a late run for the Big Dance. They got in thanks to a huge win over Syracuse in the Big East Tournament and are a very talented young team that figures to compete for the conference title next year. Turnovers have been a problem though due to having 3 freshmen and a sophomore in the backcourt.

PROJECTED SCORE: 70

Villanova is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

Clemson (-6, O/U 143.5): The Tigers return to the Big Dance for the first time in a decade after playing in the NIT each of the last 3 years. They are coming off their best finish in the ACC since 1990 and will need to overcome their status as the worst free-throw shooting team in the conference, which can be blamed for at least half of their losses this season.

PROJECTED SCORE: 75

Clemson is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE



West Region - St. Pete Times Forums (Tampa, FL)

#12 Western Kentucky vs. #5 Drake [CBS | 12:30 PM ET]

Western Kentucky: The Hilltoppers were able to rally down the stretch despite losing one of their best players last month in 6-foot-7 senior Mike Walker. They were able to hang tough with the likes of Gonzaga and Tennesee (losing by a combined 9 points) and could possibly sping the upset due to their outstanding defense and veteran guard play.

PROJECTED SCORE: 68

Western Kentucky is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

Drake (-4, O/U 139.5): The Bulldogs rewarded their backers this season - going 21-7 ATS - the most profitable team in the country. Drake lives by the long ball, putting up 28 3-pointers a game. But amazingly, MVC Player of the Year Adam Emmenecker has never attempted a 3-point shot in his 4 years at Drake.

PROJECTED SCORE: 72

Drake is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 Friday games.

Key Injuries - NONE



#13 San Diego vs. #4 Connecticut [CBS | 3 PM ET]

San Diego: The team's 2 best players - point guard Brandon Johnson and center Gyno Pomare - are also less talented than their UConn counterparts and face severe mismatches. The Toreros were able to win 13 of their last 15 games to get into the Big Dance, but 11 of those came at home, as they also hosted their conference tournament.

PROJECTED SCORE: 60

San Diego is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

UConn (-11.5, O/U 131): The Huskies outrebounded their opponents by nearly 7 per game and are anchored in the middle by 7-foot-3 Hasheem Thabeet, who was named Big East Defensive Player of the Year after blocking a conference-record 94 shots during the regular season. There's no doubt that their strength lies in the interior, but the key to their success could very well depend on the play of point guard A.J. Price, who led the league in assists.

PROJECTED SCORE: 71

The OVER is 7-3 in UConn?s last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE



East Region - BJCC Arena (Birmingham, AL)

#15 American vs. #2 Tennessee [CBS | 12:15 PM ET]

American: This is the first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance for the Eagles, who rely heavily on the 3-point shot. They shoot over 41 percent from beyond the arc to rank fourth in the nation and make 8 treys a game. However, American did have more turnovers than its opponents this season, which could be problematic against the opportunistic Vols.

PROJECTED SCORE: 60

American is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

Tennessee (-20, O/U 141): The key number for the Vols is 80. Tennessee was 21-1 SU & 13-5 ATS this season when it scored 80 points or more. When the Vols failed to reach 80, their record dipped to 8-3 straight up and 2-9 ATS. Tennessee may need to score that many points with the way its defense has played recently. The Vols gave up an average of 76 points in their last 5 games.

PROJECTED SCORE: 80

Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in 6 games on neutral courts this season.

Key Injuries - NONE



#10 South Alabama vs. #7 Butler [CBS | 2:45 PM ET]

South Alabama: The Jaguars were the best team in the Sun Belt this season despite losing in the conference tournament semifinals. They beat SEC West champ Mississippi State and lost by just 3 points to both Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, finishing 26-6 overall. Fortunately, South Alabama was still rewarded with an invite to the Big Dance and could be a nice sleeper pick to win a couple games.

PROJECTED SCORE: 61

South Alabama is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 Friday games.

Key Injuries - NONE

Butler (-4, O/U 125.5): The Bulldogs have 4 senior starters and averaged 9.2 3-pointers per game during the regular season. That obviously means they have tremendous experience and are one of the best outside shooting teams in the country. What could be a big problem is that Butler had a negative rebounding margin of 0.9 while playing a Horizon League schedule, which will hurt the team if the shots aren't falling as expected.

PROJECTED SCORE: 65

Butler is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 Friday games.

Key Injuries - NONE



#11 St. Joseph's vs. #6 Oklahoma [CBS | 7:10 PM ET]

St. Joe's: The Hawks can play with just about any team in the country, but they have trouble closing out games, which could again be an issue here. A lot of that has to do with a lack of depth, as head coach Phil Martelli has not used his bench much lately. Keep this in mind for second-half betting.

PROJECTED SCORE: 63

The UNDER is 6-2 in St. Joseph?s last 8 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

Oklahoma (-1.5, O/U 127.5): The Sooners have a favorable opponent, as both teams would prefer to keep the score in the 70s or less. Since they are not a good shooting team, pounding the ball inside to Blake Griffin and Longar Longar will be key. Oklahoma has a distinct size advantage and should be able to wear down St. Joe's, controlling the pace.

PROJECTED SCORE: 65

The UNDER is 7-0 in Oklahoma?s last 7 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE



#14 Boise State vs. #3 Louisville [CBS | 9:40 PM ET]

Boise State: The Broncos could be a live underdog against Louisville. Boise State is 14-3 SU & 10-4 ATS away from home this season. The Broncos are also the fourth-best shooting team in the country, hitting 50.2 percent from the field.

PROJECTED SCORE: 65

Boise State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 lined games.
Boise State is 10-4 ATS away from home this season.

Key Injuries - NONE

Louisville (-13, O/U 143.5): Outside of a disappointing 2-game skid heading into the Big Dance, the Cardinals were one of the hottest teams in the country down the stretch. They are finally healthy after a rough start to the season and won 9 straight games before losing to Georgetown and Pitt, both teams they beat earlier in the year. Louisville ended up going 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games, and insiders believe the Cards could be as dangerous as any of the top seeds in the field.

PROJECTED SCORE: 78

Louisville is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE



East Region - RBC Center (Birmingham, AL)

Mount St. Mary's vs. #1 North Carolina [CBS | 7:10 PM ET]

Mount St. Mary's: The Mountaineers rallied back from an early 9-point deficit to not only win but cover against 20-loss Coppin State in the opening-round game on Tuesday. Now comes the challenging task of meeting overall top seed North Carolina, something guard Jeremy Goode has always dreamed of. ?I envisioned playing against them when I was little,? said Goode, a Carolina native. ?To play against them means a lot.?

PROJECTED SCORE: 62

Mount St. Mary's is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

North Carolina (-24.5, O/U 150): The Tar Heels are loaded with talent and could be very tough to beat if they don't turn the ball over. However, they have proven to be beatable when that happens, committing a combined 30 turnovers in losses to Maryland and Duke during the regular season.

PROJECTED SCORE: 87

North Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE



#9 Arkansas vs. #8 Indiana [CBS | 9:40 PM ET]

Arkansas: The Razorbacks obviously have talent, which is one of the reasons they made it all the way to the SEC Tournament title game. However, they lack consistency and focus, which was proven in losing to Georgia as an 8-point favorite in that game. Arkansas is also a poor road team with a 2-7 mark during the regular season compared to 15-1 at home.

PROJECTED SCORE: 70

Arkansas is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - Leading scorer Sonny Weems (15 ppg; knee) has been upgraded to expected to play.

Indiana (-1, O/U 140.5): The Hoosiers have one of the best 1-2 scoring punches in the country in freshman guard Eric Gordon and senior center D.J. White. The duo averaged over 38 points per game and will be very difficult to match up with. The team's motivation down the stretch will be critical though, as Indiana was just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games after Dan Dakich took over as head coach for the departed Kelvin Sampson.

PROJECTED SCORE: 71

Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE



South Region - Alltel Arena (North Little Rock, AR)

#10 St. Mary's vs. #7 Miami (FL) [CBS | 12:30 PM ET]

St. Mary's: The Gaels play outstanding pressure defense, holding 13 opponents under 60 points and forcing 15 turnovers per game. They also limit the opposition 30.4 percent from beyond the 3-point arc. However, the offense of St. Mary's could very well be the difference. The team is averaging 79.7 points per game in its 25 wins and 61.2 in its 5 losses.

PROJECTED SCORE: 69

St. Mary?s is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

Miami (-1, O/U 137.5): Hurricanes guard Jack McLinton led the ACC in 3-point field-goal percentage at 44 percent and also shoots 90 percent from the free-throw line. However, Miami sometimes becomes too dependent offensively on McLinton, which could be a major issue against a team as defensively sound as St. Mary's.

PROJECTED SCORE: 70

The UNDER is 26-9 in Miami-Florida?s last 35 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - NONE



#15 Austin Peay vs. #2 Texas [CBS | 3 PM ET]

Austin Peay: The Governors were competitive earlier in the year in losses against top-level tournament teams in Vanderbilt and Memphis and won 11 of 12 down the stretch to get into the Big Dance. However, they are very undersized, with all 5 starters standing 6-foot-5 or shorter. Center Drake Reed is one of them and should struggle going against a tough Texas frontcourt led by 6-10 Connor Atchley.

PROJECTED SCORE: 62

Austin Peay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

Texas (-15.5, O/U 140): There are not 2 more dangerous guards in the country 6-foot or shorter than Longhorns D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams. Both are outstanding 3-point shooters and will have a surprising size advantage over Austin Peay's 5-foot-9 point guard Derek Wright. Out of all the first-round games, this one seems to have the biggest individual mismatches - all in Texas' favor.

PROJECTED SCORE: 78

Texas is 3-9-2 ATS in its last 14 Friday games.

Key Injuries - NONE



#9 Oregon vs. #8 Mississippi State [CBS | 7:25 PM ET]

Oregon: This is a senior-laden team with 5 on the roster, led by starters Bryce Taylor, Malik Hairston and Maarty Leunen. The Ducks made it all the way to the Elite 8 a year ago, and those seniors will be looking for a successful end to their college careers.

PROJECTED SCORE: 72 (Side Play of the Day)

The OVER is 6-2 in Oregon?s last 8 Friday games.

Key Injuries - NONE

Mississippi State (-2.5, O/U 143): The Bulldogs enjoyed a fairly successful regular season, but they aren't a team that stands out or does anything remarkable. Their best outside shooter (Ben Hansbrough, the younger brother of North Carolina's Tyler) makes just 37 percent from beyond the 3-point arc, and they lack depth if they get into foul trouble.

PROJECTED SCORE: 70

Mississippi State is 1-3 ATS in 4 games on neutral courts this season.

Key Injuries - NONE



#16 Texas-Arlington vs. #1 Memphis [CBS | 9:55 PM ET]

Texas-Arlington: The Mavericks are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance and may just be happy to be playing in the Big Dance. They do have some size inside with All-Southland selection Jermaine Griffin, but insiders believe they could be simply overwhelmed by the Tigers from the opening tip and end up on the wrong end of the biggest rout in the tourney.

PROJECTED SCORE: 58

Texas-Arlington is 3-0 SU on neutral Courts this season.

Key Injuries - G Ro'ger Guignard (13 ppg; ankle) is listed as questionable.

Memphis (-24.5, O/U 142): Fourteen of the Tigers 33 victories this season have been by 20 points or more, so their lackluster free throw shooting hasn?t been a problem. However, Memphis connects on just 59 percent of its free throw attempts. That?s a stat that won?t just hurt them in tight games, it could also be a factor in covering big spreads throughout the Tournament.

PROJECTED SCORE: 83

Memphis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

[Udog]

NBA
Power Index


Guys, 8-2 last night for 28-12 overall.

NBA

San Antonio .5 over Chicago*
Boston .5 over Dallas*
Utah* 3 over L.A. Lakers

[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Thursday, March 20

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Today's NBA analysis

Hot Teams
-- Celtics won 13 of last 14 games. Mavericks won five of their last six games.
-- Jazz won eight of their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Spurs lost six of their last seven games. Bulls are 1-5 vs the spread in game after their last six wins.
-- Lakers covered one of their last five games.

Previous meetings this season
-- Bulls (+9.5) lost 94-79 in San Antonio Dec 26.
-- Mavericks (-2) lost 96-90 in Boston Jan 31.
-- Lakers beat Utah twice this year, by 10-14 points.

Totals
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Chicago games.
-- Five of last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-3 in last nine Laker games.

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Thursday, March 20

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Today's NHL analysis

Hot Teams
-- Montreal is 5-1 in game after its last six losses.
-- Senators won three of their last four games.
-- Lightning won three of their last four games. Penguins are 5-2 in their last seven games.
-- Carolina won ten of its last twelve games. Panthers won their last seven games, allowing total of last nine games.
-- Red Wings won six of their last eight games.
-- Oilers won ten of their last twelve games. Canucks won five of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Bruins lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Blues lost eleven of their last thirteen games.
-- Predators lost six of their last seven games.
-- Flames lost three of their last four games. Colorado lost last two games, scoring total of three goals.
-- Kings lost eight of their last eleven games. Coyotes lost last three games, outscored 16-7.

Series Records
-- Canadiens won their last nine games against Boston.
-- Senators won 4-2 in St Louis LY, in last series meeting.
-- Lightning won 10 of last 11 against the Penguins.
-- Carolina won eleven of last thirteen against Florida.
-- Red Wings are 7-3 in last ten games against Nashville.
-- Flames lost eight of last ten vs Colorado.
-- Home side won four of last five Canuck-Oiler games.
-- Kings are 0-6 against Phoenix this season.

Totals
-- Last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Ottawa games.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Tampa Bay games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Carolina games.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven Detroit-Nashville games.
-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Calgary games.
-- Over is 12-3 in last fifteen Edmonton games.
-- Seven of Kings' last eight games stayed under the total.

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[Dennis14072]

Ummm...

NBA
Power Index


Guys, 8-2 last night for 28-12 overall.

NBA

San Antonio .5 over Chicago*
Boston .5 over Dallas*
Utah* 3 over L.A. Lakers

Does this rating mean SA is favored by a half point, Chi being the play at +4, or SA a half unit play?

[Udog]

Does this rating mean SA is favored by a half point, Chi being the play at +4, or SA a half unit play?

Hey, Dennis! I hope it's going well for you so far!

It means that they favor SA by .5 point and Chi +4 is the play. The * denotes the home team.

Don't forget the posted results are SU. It's a little hard to say how they've done ATS because there's no way to know what lines people got. At the books I use, they do very well ATS, too.

[Dennis14072]

Thanks, and good luck today!