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Ted Sevransky, Experts: Two key stats
Statistics don’t get many bettors very excited, but they can make an enormous impact on the outcome of games. Two key statistics that I use in my March Madness handicapping are free throw shooting percentage and defensive field goal percentage allowed.
Most games in the Big Dance are fairly competitive. We’ll see a number of double digit favorites in the first round, but after that the vast majority of favorites are lined at -10 or less. Quite simply, teams that hit their free throws down the stretch of relatively close games are much more likely to cover the pointspread than teams that consistently struggle from the charity stripe. Whenever I’m considering supporting one of these mid-priced favorites, I’ll take a hard look at their ability to make those clutch free throw attempts that often make the difference between a pointspread winner and a pointspread loser. Of the expected top seeds, UCLA and North Carolina are well above average at the free throw line, while Memphis and Tennessee both struggle to make those crucial late game free throw attempts.
Offense makes Sportscenter highlights, but defense wins championships. The best defensive teams don’t give up easy buckets in transition. They don’t give up good looks in the paint. And they don’t allow open shooters to drain three pointers from the perimeter. Georgetown, Mississippi State, Kansas, Wisconsin, Louisville and UConn all rank in the Top 10 nationally in defensive field goal percentage allowed. Pitt, UCLA, Tennessee and Duke don’t rank in the Top 100, making them extremely vulnerable to one of those hot shooting teams that they’ll inevitably face on the road to the Final Four.
David Chan, Experts: Don't forget the favorites
It’s easy to get caught up in all the hype surrounding underdogs and so-called ‘Cinderellas’ at tourney time, but it’s important not to lose sight of the fact that favorites can cover the number too.
Last year’s opening round was a perfect example. On the first Thursday of tourney action, the favorites covered at a 13-3 ATS clip. The underdogs got a bit of that cash back on Friday, but the favorites still held a 9-7 ATS edge.
Remember, George Masons don’t come around every year.
I start to give underdogs a longer look from the second round forward. I will pick my spots in the opening round as well, but only with teams that I feel have a shot at the outright victory. In most cases, I just don’t see the sense in backing a team knowing that your best shot at cashing is by way of a backdoor cover.
Once a team avoids that opening round hurdle, anything can happen. Poolies aside, in my opinion you’re better off waiting until the second round to size up possible ‘Cinderellas’. There’s no worse feeling than going big on a 13-seed on the opening day of the tournament and watching them dig a 29-7 hole in the first 10 minutes.
Keep your eyes peeled for those underpriced opening round faves and your bankroll will thank you.
Scott Rickenbach, Experts: Patience is key
March Madness is on, but don’t let the frenzy force you to make hasty (read: wrong) decisions.
The problem with March Madness is that so many games are packed into such a short period of time, many bettors become overwhelmed. These are the bettors who wager on too many games, or who can’t pass up on playing a game because it tips off at a certain time of day … and the list goes on.
Patience and money management are real keys in all sports gaming, but they sometimes get thrown out the window during a crazy time of year like March Madness. Don’t let yourself be one of those doing the throwing.
The key to having an enjoyable (read: profitable) March Madness is to use the same principles that work year-round. Make sure your plays meet the same requirements you insist on during the regular season. That’s not to say March Madness handicapping is like regular-season handicapping, because it’s not. The point is, you should still require the same number of key factors to be in play before considering a game wager. Don’t lose the discipline that allows you to be successful during the regular season.
One place to look for profit at this time of year is the NIT Tournament. Once the Big Dance has selected all its contestants, take a look at the NIT matchups.
We know the betting will be big on the NCAA Tourney games. But we also know there are excellent opportunities every year to build a bankroll off the teams the NCAA snubbed. Teams that don’t get asked to the Big Dance can turn a number of ways when it comes to the NIT. It’s important to know what teams might be worth betting on or against.
Examine teams and their psyche: How are they reacting to now playing in the “inferior” tournament? Some teams go in happy to be in any tourney; others go in extremely disappointment. Still others go into the NIT tourney playing like they expect to win the whole thing, and will ultimately show that they are indeed determined to do so.
Patience, money management, looking where others fail to look and seeking the motivational edges: all these are keys to boosting your bankroll in March. Where there are big cards worthy of a bigger number of plays, don’t be afraid to take the rubber band off your bankroll and get a few more dollars in action.
But make sure you’re holding your plays to the same high standard you during the regular season. If you don’t let the madness get to you, March Madness can be enjoyable and highly profitable. Keep your focus, find your edges and win big.
Statistics don’t get many bettors very excited, but they can make an enormous impact on the outcome of games. Two key statistics that I use in my March Madness handicapping are free throw shooting percentage and defensive field goal percentage allowed.
Most games in the Big Dance are fairly competitive. We’ll see a number of double digit favorites in the first round, but after that the vast majority of favorites are lined at -10 or less. Quite simply, teams that hit their free throws down the stretch of relatively close games are much more likely to cover the pointspread than teams that consistently struggle from the charity stripe. Whenever I’m considering supporting one of these mid-priced favorites, I’ll take a hard look at their ability to make those clutch free throw attempts that often make the difference between a pointspread winner and a pointspread loser. Of the expected top seeds, UCLA and North Carolina are well above average at the free throw line, while Memphis and Tennessee both struggle to make those crucial late game free throw attempts.
Offense makes Sportscenter highlights, but defense wins championships. The best defensive teams don’t give up easy buckets in transition. They don’t give up good looks in the paint. And they don’t allow open shooters to drain three pointers from the perimeter. Georgetown, Mississippi State, Kansas, Wisconsin, Louisville and UConn all rank in the Top 10 nationally in defensive field goal percentage allowed. Pitt, UCLA, Tennessee and Duke don’t rank in the Top 100, making them extremely vulnerable to one of those hot shooting teams that they’ll inevitably face on the road to the Final Four.
David Chan, Experts: Don't forget the favorites
It’s easy to get caught up in all the hype surrounding underdogs and so-called ‘Cinderellas’ at tourney time, but it’s important not to lose sight of the fact that favorites can cover the number too.
Last year’s opening round was a perfect example. On the first Thursday of tourney action, the favorites covered at a 13-3 ATS clip. The underdogs got a bit of that cash back on Friday, but the favorites still held a 9-7 ATS edge.
Remember, George Masons don’t come around every year.
I start to give underdogs a longer look from the second round forward. I will pick my spots in the opening round as well, but only with teams that I feel have a shot at the outright victory. In most cases, I just don’t see the sense in backing a team knowing that your best shot at cashing is by way of a backdoor cover.
Once a team avoids that opening round hurdle, anything can happen. Poolies aside, in my opinion you’re better off waiting until the second round to size up possible ‘Cinderellas’. There’s no worse feeling than going big on a 13-seed on the opening day of the tournament and watching them dig a 29-7 hole in the first 10 minutes.
Keep your eyes peeled for those underpriced opening round faves and your bankroll will thank you.
Scott Rickenbach, Experts: Patience is key
March Madness is on, but don’t let the frenzy force you to make hasty (read: wrong) decisions.
The problem with March Madness is that so many games are packed into such a short period of time, many bettors become overwhelmed. These are the bettors who wager on too many games, or who can’t pass up on playing a game because it tips off at a certain time of day … and the list goes on.
Patience and money management are real keys in all sports gaming, but they sometimes get thrown out the window during a crazy time of year like March Madness. Don’t let yourself be one of those doing the throwing.
The key to having an enjoyable (read: profitable) March Madness is to use the same principles that work year-round. Make sure your plays meet the same requirements you insist on during the regular season. That’s not to say March Madness handicapping is like regular-season handicapping, because it’s not. The point is, you should still require the same number of key factors to be in play before considering a game wager. Don’t lose the discipline that allows you to be successful during the regular season.
One place to look for profit at this time of year is the NIT Tournament. Once the Big Dance has selected all its contestants, take a look at the NIT matchups.
We know the betting will be big on the NCAA Tourney games. But we also know there are excellent opportunities every year to build a bankroll off the teams the NCAA snubbed. Teams that don’t get asked to the Big Dance can turn a number of ways when it comes to the NIT. It’s important to know what teams might be worth betting on or against.
Examine teams and their psyche: How are they reacting to now playing in the “inferior” tournament? Some teams go in happy to be in any tourney; others go in extremely disappointment. Still others go into the NIT tourney playing like they expect to win the whole thing, and will ultimately show that they are indeed determined to do so.
Patience, money management, looking where others fail to look and seeking the motivational edges: all these are keys to boosting your bankroll in March. Where there are big cards worthy of a bigger number of plays, don’t be afraid to take the rubber band off your bankroll and get a few more dollars in action.
But make sure you’re holding your plays to the same high standard you during the regular season. If you don’t let the madness get to you, March Madness can be enjoyable and highly profitable. Keep your focus, find your edges and win big.
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