Black Saturday For Public Bettors

[GOLDENGREEK]

Public Got Crushed Today

Did Very Bad Yesterday Also


Hope The Trend Continues Thru The Final Four

Its Vegas's Time Of The Year


Public Games That Lost Today :

81 & Kentucky - Loser

70 % Tennessee - Loser

60% Miss St -- Loser

70 % N. Carolina - Loser

65 % Duke - Loser

70 % Wisky - Loser

70 % Kansas - Loser

65 % Ucla - Loser

65 % Georgetown - Loser

65 % New Mex St - Loser



Public Wins:

71 % Texas - Winner


Thas It


Wow

And It Was Similar Yesterday As Well

[tash]

gotta love it !

[spreadman]

WED. and Thurs. was good also..

[spreadman]

It started to turn WED...

[spreadman]

Its the same thing every year.. At the same time..

Football same thing Public wins during Thanksgiven Weekend every year..

[GOLDENGREEK]

Its the same thing every year.. At the same time..

Football same thing Public wins during Thanksgiven Weekend every year..

AND THE SUPERBOWL LATELY ( PUBLIC WINNING )

[spreadman]

and The Superbowl Lately ( Public Winning )

So True

[bryce]

Greek -it is the same thing every year for people that have been betting for a long time--people think things are going to change and this will be their year...so they bet so called obvious faves and end up in the same boat as always..THE boat...I have done it and a typical example is Purdue yesterday--I knew it I knew it I knew it and still bet it---You see a line open at 4 and theres your clue---TAKE ILLINI!!!! Now with all that being said last years tourney was pretty much a chalk tournament---don't really remember spread wise but many faves won last year--I expect a big difference this year.

[trims]

IS NC DUE for a cover? 0-2 so far and I think after watching clemson today and the time they played Nc couple weeks back. they played NC tough although they fell apart in ot which happens sometimes

[flarendep1]

Yep, betting favorites are a sure way to get tapped out.

[bryce]

IS NC DUE for a cover? 0-2 so far and I think after watching clemson today and the time they played Nc couple weeks back. they played NC tough although they fell apart in ot which happens sometimes

They have failed to cover the last 4 times as a double digit fave--and I have taken them every time---yes they are due but DO they??

Not that they are DD--but they have really failed to cover as of late

[GOLDENGREEK]

Greek -it is the same thing every year for people that have been betting for a long time--people think things are going to change and this will be their year...so they bet so called obvious faves and end up in the same boat as always..THE boat...I have done it and a typical example is Purdue yesterday--I knew it I knew it I knew it and still bet it---You see a line open at 4 and theres your clue---TAKE ILLINI!!!! Now with all that being said last years tourney was pretty much a chalk tournament---don't really remember spread wise but many faves won last year--I expect a big difference this year.

THAT HAPPENED TO ME WITH GEORGETOWN TODAY

[bryce]

THAT HAPPENED TO ME WITH GEORGETOWN TODAY

Me too--I am from the Burgh---like my team but playing 4 in a row and seeing them do this over the past 10 years as they seem to make it their(finals) led me to GTOWN--They looked great but I do not expect much from them in the tourney--these tourneys are brutal and this had to take a lot out of them--

[GOLDENGREEK]

Greek -it is the same thing every year for people that have been betting for a long time--people think things are going to change and this will be their year...so they bet so called obvious faves and end up in the same boat as always..THE boat...I have done it and a typical example is Purdue yesterday--I knew it I knew it I knew it and still bet it---You see a line open at 4 and theres your clue---TAKE ILLINI!!!! Now with all that being said last years tourney was pretty much a chalk tournament---don't really remember spread wise but many faves won last year--I expect a big difference this year.

From what I remeber you are suppose to play the dogs in the first 2 rounds than switch to the favs starting in the sweet 16 on.

double diget dogs cover at over 60 % clip throught the tourney




An article from sports insights:


March Madness: Putting things Together

The great thing about March Madness is that many of these factors come together to help make SportsInsights' tools even more effective for our Members. We have the whole country watching the tournament due to all of the office pools. The increased attention leads to an increased number of bets -- and an increase in public biases. The team at SportsInsights decided to see how our basic sports marketplace indicators performed during this time of "national focus" on "March Madness."

Using our College Basketball database, that goes back over the past four seasons (and over 12,000 games) -- we looked at a simple system.

During March and April, betting on a team that has a:

Betting Percentage less than 40%

and is more than a 10-point Underdog

Has yielded a winning percentage of 60% over the past four seasons (Just under +30 units over the past four seasons or +7 units per season each March/April).

For example:

Say Duke is a 10.5 point favorite over Team "Big Underdog."

Also, "Joe Public" is all over Duke, with Duke collecting 75% of the bets and "Big Underdog" collecting 25%.

SportsInsights' March Madness system would "Bet Against the Public" and select "Big Underdog" (more than 10-point dog with less than 40% of the bets) to beat "the spread."

Over the past four seasons, using this kind of approach during March and April (of selecting undervalued and unwanted underdogs) would have won 60% of the games against the spread.

Smart Money Techniques

An even stronger use of "betting percentages" is to combine it with "line movement." SportsInsights.com's members will recognize this as Smart Money Techniques. We won't go over Smart Money methods since SportsInsights has several good articles (including this one on College Hoops) on that topic. Suffice it to say that using line moves in combination with betting percentages are a very powerful method of finding out where the Smart Money is going.

[bryce]

Suffice it to say that using line moves in combination with betting percentages are a very powerful method of finding out where the Smart Money is going.


I like this comment from the article--yep!!