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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
ALREADY EARLY PROOF THAT "NEED TO WIN" MEANS NOTHING!
The postseason tournaments had barely gotten rolling when we started hearing reports of teams who "needed" to win to ensure NCAA tournament invitations falling by the wayside.
Southern Illinois believed they deserved to get a third bid out of the Missouri Valley Conference. They couldn't even win a first round game against a sixth seed.
Virginia Commonwealth wanted to believe they had already earned a spot in the Dance. To clinch that, they certainly needed to at least make the finals of the Colonial tournament that was being played in their home city. They lost in the semifinals to unheralded William & Mary.
South Alabama was in the same boat as VCU...except they were hosting the Sun Belt tournament in their home gym instead of just their home city. South Alabama lost in the semifinals as a big favorite to Middle Tennessee.
St. Mary's was supposedly a sure thing, and probably still is based on what the bracket experts are saying. But...a semifinal loss to San Diego sure made it easier for the selection committee to snub them Sunday Night. Should there be three teams from the West Coast Conference in the Big Dance? Looks like it will happen.
Now, it wouldn't be right to say that anybody in Vegas made a lot of money betting these games. The public tends to leave the mid majors alone, particularly if the games are being played on weeknights. The sharps have been betting more totals than sides lately...and don't particularly have any affection for teams like Northern Iowa, William & Mary, and Middle Tennessee unless some special information is in play. I do know some guys who took flyers on San Diego in the semifinals against St. Mary's since San Diego was hosting. Most passed on the eventual upset over Gonzaga though figuring that San Diego would be exhausted from overtime action the night before.
These were low action games in Vegas. But, we're ABOUT to see high action games in Vegas because the major conferences will have teams in the same boat! If ESPN is going to devote a couple of hours talking about VCU and South Alabama, what's going to happen when Syracuse, Ohio State, and Florida are the teams on the bubble?
Every major conference has at least one team, and more like two or three who currently hope to play their way into the NCAA tournament with a great weekend. Some only need one win to get in. Many more need two. And, some will have to win their tournaments even if they don't believe that right now. All teams overrate their chances to get in, which is why you sometimes see flat efforts from teams who should have played with more energy. That's how VCU and South Alabama managed to lose!
Every major conference has a TV contract somewhere. The public will be betting these games. The networks will be hyping these games. And, frankly, because there's so little else of interest going on, the networks will be going OVERBOARD talking about all the bubble stuff.
This is going to create some lines that are out of touch with reality. The public is going to be hitting these "must win" teams, particularly if they're favorites against teams who have no chance to get in. The public LOVES betting favorites...the public LOVES taking teams who "need" to win...and the public LOVES betting against losing teams who might throw in the towel. This will add 1-2 points in some cases, more in others to some of this week's tournament lines.
What the public forgets is:
Teams on the bubble aren't good enough to win whenever they want to, or they wouldn't be sweating this weekend in the first place.
Teams on the bubble are under a lot of pressure to perform, and often force the issue in a way that leads to WORSE play.
Teams on the bubble are all over the news, while their opponents get completely ignored. Opponents hate hearing that they're irrelevant while the other team is important.
Anything can happen in 40 minutes on a neutral court. An ugly dog makes some treys, and the must-win team goes cold...and you've got a ballgame on your hands.
If you want to make some money the rest of this week, you owe it to yourself to play very close attention to these bubble situations. Hopefully you've got all of your projected lines in place by now, as I advised in the previous article. This will make it very easy for you to see which Vegas numbers have been inflated because of public action. If you still haven't done that, do it NOW!
Next, make a list of all the major conference teams who aren't locked into the Dance yet. It's easy to find the standings. You can also go to ESPN's website to see where their bracketology guy has everybody. You should know who the "last team in" from every conference is, and the "first team out" as well. This will tell you who's under the microscope in terms of media expectations. I'd also add in one or two more teams because the kids on those teams will also believe they're on the bubble. And, the media won't dissuade them because they need a storyline to market. Have you ever heard a color announcer tell a borderline team they've got no chance? No! They're always talking about how the conference deserves more bids. It would be an 80-team tournament if the most-discussed teams all got in.
I know some Nevada sharps who don't bet much college basketball, but get involved now just because they like going against the public. It generally works in all sports. They figure they should take an edge when it appears. They don't like watching college hoops, or betting it that much. But, they know going against the public is money. Now, the guys that love college hoops are also doing that...in addition to playing all the other edges they find.
It's a rule you should always follow. If sharps aren't involved, you shouldn't be either (roulette, most table games in Vegas and Reno). If the sharps ARE involved, there's obviously an edge to be exploited!
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
ALREADY EARLY PROOF THAT "NEED TO WIN" MEANS NOTHING!
The postseason tournaments had barely gotten rolling when we started hearing reports of teams who "needed" to win to ensure NCAA tournament invitations falling by the wayside.
Southern Illinois believed they deserved to get a third bid out of the Missouri Valley Conference. They couldn't even win a first round game against a sixth seed.
Virginia Commonwealth wanted to believe they had already earned a spot in the Dance. To clinch that, they certainly needed to at least make the finals of the Colonial tournament that was being played in their home city. They lost in the semifinals to unheralded William & Mary.
South Alabama was in the same boat as VCU...except they were hosting the Sun Belt tournament in their home gym instead of just their home city. South Alabama lost in the semifinals as a big favorite to Middle Tennessee.
St. Mary's was supposedly a sure thing, and probably still is based on what the bracket experts are saying. But...a semifinal loss to San Diego sure made it easier for the selection committee to snub them Sunday Night. Should there be three teams from the West Coast Conference in the Big Dance? Looks like it will happen.
Now, it wouldn't be right to say that anybody in Vegas made a lot of money betting these games. The public tends to leave the mid majors alone, particularly if the games are being played on weeknights. The sharps have been betting more totals than sides lately...and don't particularly have any affection for teams like Northern Iowa, William & Mary, and Middle Tennessee unless some special information is in play. I do know some guys who took flyers on San Diego in the semifinals against St. Mary's since San Diego was hosting. Most passed on the eventual upset over Gonzaga though figuring that San Diego would be exhausted from overtime action the night before.
These were low action games in Vegas. But, we're ABOUT to see high action games in Vegas because the major conferences will have teams in the same boat! If ESPN is going to devote a couple of hours talking about VCU and South Alabama, what's going to happen when Syracuse, Ohio State, and Florida are the teams on the bubble?
Every major conference has at least one team, and more like two or three who currently hope to play their way into the NCAA tournament with a great weekend. Some only need one win to get in. Many more need two. And, some will have to win their tournaments even if they don't believe that right now. All teams overrate their chances to get in, which is why you sometimes see flat efforts from teams who should have played with more energy. That's how VCU and South Alabama managed to lose!
Every major conference has a TV contract somewhere. The public will be betting these games. The networks will be hyping these games. And, frankly, because there's so little else of interest going on, the networks will be going OVERBOARD talking about all the bubble stuff.
This is going to create some lines that are out of touch with reality. The public is going to be hitting these "must win" teams, particularly if they're favorites against teams who have no chance to get in. The public LOVES betting favorites...the public LOVES taking teams who "need" to win...and the public LOVES betting against losing teams who might throw in the towel. This will add 1-2 points in some cases, more in others to some of this week's tournament lines.
What the public forgets is:
Teams on the bubble aren't good enough to win whenever they want to, or they wouldn't be sweating this weekend in the first place.
Teams on the bubble are under a lot of pressure to perform, and often force the issue in a way that leads to WORSE play.
Teams on the bubble are all over the news, while their opponents get completely ignored. Opponents hate hearing that they're irrelevant while the other team is important.
Anything can happen in 40 minutes on a neutral court. An ugly dog makes some treys, and the must-win team goes cold...and you've got a ballgame on your hands.
If you want to make some money the rest of this week, you owe it to yourself to play very close attention to these bubble situations. Hopefully you've got all of your projected lines in place by now, as I advised in the previous article. This will make it very easy for you to see which Vegas numbers have been inflated because of public action. If you still haven't done that, do it NOW!
Next, make a list of all the major conference teams who aren't locked into the Dance yet. It's easy to find the standings. You can also go to ESPN's website to see where their bracketology guy has everybody. You should know who the "last team in" from every conference is, and the "first team out" as well. This will tell you who's under the microscope in terms of media expectations. I'd also add in one or two more teams because the kids on those teams will also believe they're on the bubble. And, the media won't dissuade them because they need a storyline to market. Have you ever heard a color announcer tell a borderline team they've got no chance? No! They're always talking about how the conference deserves more bids. It would be an 80-team tournament if the most-discussed teams all got in.
I know some Nevada sharps who don't bet much college basketball, but get involved now just because they like going against the public. It generally works in all sports. They figure they should take an edge when it appears. They don't like watching college hoops, or betting it that much. But, they know going against the public is money. Now, the guys that love college hoops are also doing that...in addition to playing all the other edges they find.
It's a rule you should always follow. If sharps aren't involved, you shouldn't be either (roulette, most table games in Vegas and Reno). If the sharps ARE involved, there's obviously an edge to be exploited!
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