SUPER Special Situation Saturday AM -- 14-8

[thesandman]

I hope the subject got your attention so you don't miss this play. This would be a GOY if I did them and I did just play it for double my usual big bets. Stanford played UCLA even until OT Thursday and I can't see any reason Stanford will lose two in a row by losing to a USC team that is not near as good as UCLA. Yet Stanford is the dog. Here is all you have to know. USC AT HOME LOST TO EVERY TOP TIER TEAM IN THE PAC 10.

USC lost, at home, to Washington State by 15, lost to Arizona by 11 and UCLA by 10. Stanford beat both Washington State and Arizona twice. If USC can't win at home over teams that Stanford is better than, why should they be favored over Stanford today. Maybe people back East woke up Friday morning and saw UCLA beat Stanford by 10. If that's the reason they think USC will also beat Stanford, it's a huge mistake. I can't stress enough what a great play this is.

PLAY STANFORD +1

Even if the line moves and Stanford is a small favorite, no problem. The games USC lost at home to the good teams were not close.

THIS IS IMPORTANT. THIS GAME HAS A TIME CHANGE AND GOES EARLY AT 11 am PST.

Special Situation Plays Season to Date 14-8.

[Shaun32]

gl sandman

[meaiken]

Good Luck with the play, I hope your right.

[Kaptain]

thanks for the pick and the write up Sandy----gl to ya

[spreadman]

Stan 24-5
USC 19-10 and its a pick??

USC is the play..

[drsho01]

just an observation.In this situation I would be thinking USC is bad at home, they are playing a team that is good. They are playing a team that had UCLA on the ropes. Therefore, most folks(public) would think that Stanford catching points on the road to a crappy home team is to good to be true and therefore would jump all over them and bet Stanford. Meaning I would be taking USC. Is this a trap situation? Sandman, I beleive respect your analysis and your experience. I am not calling you out. What I am asking is how do I tell the difference between a trap game (only in my opinion) and not a trap game. Thank you for your patience with me.

[tech fan]

gl on the play buddy

[bryce]

Good luck Sand!!

[Dat Boi E]

good luck with Standford, Sandy! i like it!

[thesandman]

drsho01 said

just an observation.In this situation I would be thinking USC is bad at home, they are playing a team that is good. They are playing a team that had UCLA on the ropes. Therefore, most folks(public) would think that Stanford catching points on the road to a crappy home team is to good to be true and therefore would jump all over them and bet Stanford. Meaning I would be taking USC. Is this a trap situation? Sandman, I beleive respect your analysis and your experience. I am not calling you out. What I am asking is how do I tell the difference between a trap game (only in my opinion) and not a trap game. Thank you for your patience with me.
Reply With Quote

Believe me, the idea of a trap did enter my mind but for me to think a line is a trap, I want to see it move TOWARD the team in question, to try and force more money on that side. It wasn't much of a move AWAY from Stanford, but they went from a one point dog to a one point favorite, which makes it more likely for USC bets.

The money breakdown was 80-20 Stanford, now down to 74-26 Stanford. Small, but does show a trend.

[thesandman]

I'm going to be embarrassed and broke. You guys are right. So far, Stanford looks as bad as any team can look. Still early but they need to start playing better now or it's going to be a long morning for me. I should change the channel and watch cartoons.

[ELJUGO]

Plenty of game left Sandy, Gonna be tough though. I think that UCLA game took the wind out of their sails and USC wants payback from the last time they met. I wish you luck though...

[birdog]

good luck

[Chado1]

BOL with Stanford today Sandy!!!