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  • Faders beware

    Seems smart money hit Minnesota early, now the public is pushing the line in Penn St. direction.

    Colorado St is another, public all over Utah and The line went Colorado St -4½ to Colorado St. -6½

    One other that seems to stick out is Tennesse
    Public seems to be all over South Carolina and the line went from Tennesse-14½ to Tennesse -16

  • #2
    Are you saying the linesmakers are moving the line in the same direction as the money? Such as, the public is betting on Utah so the linesmakers are moving the line to give more points to bets on Utah, to attract more bets on Utah?

    Doesn't make sense.
    sigpic

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    • #3
      Not

      What I am saying at all.
      I'm saying that the public is on these games, smart money is moving the lines

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      • #4
        Had noticed that last nite WIZ!!! Best of Luck today!!! Knock!

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        • #5
          so you are saying to go with the public push.....
          You can't get there from here..........

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          • #6
            WIZ

            Still don't undersand you.

            Money moves lines - the more the money the more the line move.

            The lines moves opposite the money to attract bets on the side that money has not been going to.

            How do you know that the money bet is public money vs. smart money?

            Do you assume, as I do, that smart money is early money as well as late money bet an hour before the game? What other way do you have to distinguish smart money from public money?
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            • #7
              I'm saying

              looks like the plays here should be

              Minnesota

              Colorado St

              Tennesse

              Are smart money plays
              If you want to follow smart money, play these three

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              • #8
                I'm saying

                for instance
                Utah is taking 78% of all the acting, yet the line has went from COLORADO STATE -4½ to COLORADO STATE -6½ If 78% of all plays are on Utah, why did the line go to COLORADO STATE -6½

                SMART money has moved the line.
                Also known as a STEAM play

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                • #9
                  Still trying to understand this.

                  You said:

                  Utah is taking 78% of all the acting, yet the line has went from COLORADO STATE -4½ to COLORADO STATE -6½ If 78% of all plays are on Utah, why did the line go to COLORADO STATE -6½

                  SMART money has moved the line.
                  Also known as a STEAM play


                  I say:

                  Total money moves the line. When you say that 78% of the action is on Utah yet the line moved to attract even mor emoney on Utah, do you mean:

                  1. 78% of the bets, regardless of size , are on Utah while the 22% of bets on Col. St. are of much larger sums of money so that more total money is being bet on Col St. even though a greater number (of smaller bets) is being bet on Utah. This would define "smart money" as bets of very high money value. Or,

                  2. 78% of the total money is being bet on Utah and the line is moving to attract even more money on Utah, which means the linesmakers are betting on Col. St. and are much smarter than the public.

                  I am asking you to define how public money is determined and how smart money is determined, if you can. Unless you can do this then how do you know that Col St. is the smart money bet?
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                  • #10
                    smart money

                    this is what I'm saying

                    78 people play $100 each on Utah

                    21 people play $100 each on Colorado St.

                    1 person plays $20,000 on Colorado St.
                    The one person is moving the line, not the 78
                    That's what I am calling SMART money.
                    This is a very simple explanation

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                    • #11
                      The following games I know for a fact are attracting a lot of square/dumb money....


                      Purdue
                      arkansas
                      pitt
                      Kansas City Chiefs
                      Buffalo Bills
                      Green Bay Packers

                      doesn't mean they will all lose, but betting against squares will win you more in the long run.

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                      • #12
                        Wiz

                        Ok - thanks for the info.

                        Smart money is a few big-bets money while public money is many small-bets money, where smart money is more on a total money basis but less on a number of bets basis.

                        Sounds great.

                        How do you find this out?

                        If you don't want to tell us, I hope you will continue to advise of the smart side before gametime.
                        sigpic

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                        • #13
                          art

                          I was a book for almost 20 years. I guess it's just something I have learned. You see a lot of hype on a side and the line is not going in that direction. It's hard to explain. Almost as hard as explaining smart money........LOL

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                          • #14
                            $500 bet could be smart money $100,000 bet could be stupid money
                            Smart money is the book being aware of who made the bet and the book being well aware of the fact this is a pro bettor

                            If i walked into a book and bet $20,000 on a football game they would say thanks for the Action..If Lem Banker or Billy Walters walked into a casino and bet $1,000 RED FLAGS would go up everywhere bookmakers across the globe would move the line
                            it's about who made the bet rather the amount.

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                            • #15
                              I look at the bottom line

                              WIZ puts out the information for all to "use or lose".....See previous thread on 3 of 4 "public (dumb) vs smart on just 4 plays....3 of 4 come home easy.....I am not promoting or demoting anyone or any persons opinion.....I just happen to know that a MONSTER MAJORITY of the time when WIZ posts those........PLAY THEM and THANK HIM OR NOT.........I personnally do not care when, who or what the information comes from, through or at but use it to an advantage to yourself if possible.......THAT is why we are all on the forum.......BEST OF LUCK TO YOU RYANC and look forward to more of your posted plays!!! GoldV
                              I am NOT schizophrenic......and NEITHER am I! Just paranoid that fear may overcome my insanity!

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