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Slow week still has some gems
By Rich Podolsky
Special to ESPN Insider
Thursday, September 25
Updated: September 26
11:43 AM ET
This looks like a very difficult week, with few if any outstanding wagering opportunities. LSU and Kansas look best. We're going to play to close to the vest this week and learn as much as we can.
Thursday
Southern Miss (+ 10 ½) vs. Nebraska: This game figures to be a 10-9 thriller. Both teams have superior defenses. Both teams have mediocre offenses. Nebraska didn't convince me of anything in its win over Penn State. Southern Miss hasn't looked sharp yet either, but the Golden Eagles have a terrific home record. They've lost just one game at home since '99, and that was by two pints.
The play: Southern Miss, one unit.
Saturday
South Carolina (+16) at Tennessee: Tennessee is coming off a very emotional victory, and even though they're home, they're in a vulnerable spot. South Carolina sharpened its teeth last week, destroying UAB, and has the defense to keep this game close until the finish.
The play: South Carolina, one unit.
Also: The over/under has fluctuated between 37½ and 38 of late; if it's 38 or higher, play the under at one unit.
LSU (-13) at Mississippi State: True, LSU is coming off a big win, and true the Bulldogs will be looking to regain some respect after losing at Houston last week. And MSU coach Jackie Sherill is fighting for his coaching life. All that said, I just don't see them hanging tough with LSU for more than a quarter or so. By halftime LSU should have at least a 10-point lead and wear them down -- talent wise -- in the second half.
The play: LSU, two units up to 14; one unit at 14 ½ or more.
Texas A&M (+1) over Pittsburgh: Pitt is coming off a shocking loss at Toledo that just might have ruined its season. It certainly ruined any chance of playing in a top BCS bowl. Now the Panthers have to travel to Lubbock and take on a well-rested A&M team that's improving for new coach Dennis Franchione. You never want to go into Aggie-land, especially on a downer.
The play: Texas A&M, one unit.
Kansas (+10) over Missouri: Kansas has won three in a row behind quarterback Bill Whittemore, who threw for four scores last week against Wyoming. The Cowboys are too easy, you say? Then how about the three TD passes he threw in the Jayhawks' easy win over UNLV -- the same UNLV that dominated Wisconsin and Hawaii the next two games. Mizzou is coming off an exhausting triple-overtime win over Middle Tennessee. Kansas is home getting a bundle of points in the conference opener. They just might win it.
The play: Kansas, two units at 10; one unit +9 ½ or less.
Texas vs. Tulane, over 62: Texas' win last week over Rice showed the Longhorns are focused once again. Question: If Army put up 33 points against Tulane, how many will Texas score against them, at Texas? Maybe a hundred, you say? Maybe. Even with the second- and third-stringers getting playing time, Texas should be able to put 63 on the board. The question is, can they stop Green Wave quarterback J.P. Losman from putting up 28? We think so, but we feel better about the over.
The play: Texas over 62, one unit.
Northern Illinois (-6 ½) over Iowa State: After victories over Maryland and at Alabama, no one is doubting that Northern Illinois is for real. Now they have their last big fish to fry, Iowa State, coming into their bandbox. The Cyclones, who have Oklahoma next week, looked very unprepared for Iowa two weeks ago, and we can't see them being thrilled about this road game. The Huskies' superb running game will dominate.
The play: Northern Illinois, one unit at 7 or less.
The Specials
Outside of the top 25 there are some intriguing opportunities, although who would've thought Northern Illinois would be inside the top 25? Another strong victory for Miami-Ohio and they'll be in the top 25 also. That and other examples follow.
Miami-Ohio (-7) over Cincinnati: The Redhawks dominated Northwestern at Northwestern. OK, that's one thing. But then to travel to Colorado State and completely dominate the Buffs, that's another. This team deserves to be in to top 20 and will show it this week. They have beaten Cincy the last two years, and this is a big recruiting game for Miami. The Bearcats will have their hands full.
The play: Miami-Ohio, one unit.
Louisville (-14) over Temple: The Cardinals have another great passing attack and are a threat to put up a big number. Temple has hung in valiantly in three close defeats, but last week's triple OT loss to Cincinnati has to pay its toll. The exhausted Owls won't know what hit them.
The play: Louisville, one unit up to 15.
Utah State (-13 ½) over UL Monroe: UL Monroe couldn't move the ball last week against Div. I-AA Northwestern State. On top of that, they lost on the last play of the game, 14-10. It could have been their only chance to win one this year after a similar loss to Stephen F. Austin. Utah State, on the other hand, hung in there with Arizona State, losing 26-16. This should be no contest, with Aggies QB Travis Cox throwing some easy TDs.
The play: Utah State, one unit up to 14.
Passing thoughts
Its hard not to think that TCU can't manhandle Arizona just like everyone else has. Until something is done at Arizona, you've got to play against them. ... Can't ever remember a time when a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team like Minnesota came into Happy Valley favored. This is Joe Paterno's last stand. Penn State should be ready. ... Looks like Florida State is getting Lorenzo Booker back at RB this week, which is bad news for a poor running defense like Duke's. ... Akron scores by the bushel. Buffalo can't seem to stop anyone. Does it matter where they play it?
Last week: 7-5-1 overall, + 5 units; Specials: 2-2-1, + 1 unit.
Season: 22-12-2 overall, + 10 units; Specials: 7-3-2, + 6 units.
By Rich Podolsky
Special to ESPN Insider
Thursday, September 25
Updated: September 26
11:43 AM ET
This looks like a very difficult week, with few if any outstanding wagering opportunities. LSU and Kansas look best. We're going to play to close to the vest this week and learn as much as we can.
Thursday
Southern Miss (+ 10 ½) vs. Nebraska: This game figures to be a 10-9 thriller. Both teams have superior defenses. Both teams have mediocre offenses. Nebraska didn't convince me of anything in its win over Penn State. Southern Miss hasn't looked sharp yet either, but the Golden Eagles have a terrific home record. They've lost just one game at home since '99, and that was by two pints.
The play: Southern Miss, one unit.
Saturday
South Carolina (+16) at Tennessee: Tennessee is coming off a very emotional victory, and even though they're home, they're in a vulnerable spot. South Carolina sharpened its teeth last week, destroying UAB, and has the defense to keep this game close until the finish.
The play: South Carolina, one unit.
Also: The over/under has fluctuated between 37½ and 38 of late; if it's 38 or higher, play the under at one unit.
LSU (-13) at Mississippi State: True, LSU is coming off a big win, and true the Bulldogs will be looking to regain some respect after losing at Houston last week. And MSU coach Jackie Sherill is fighting for his coaching life. All that said, I just don't see them hanging tough with LSU for more than a quarter or so. By halftime LSU should have at least a 10-point lead and wear them down -- talent wise -- in the second half.
The play: LSU, two units up to 14; one unit at 14 ½ or more.
Texas A&M (+1) over Pittsburgh: Pitt is coming off a shocking loss at Toledo that just might have ruined its season. It certainly ruined any chance of playing in a top BCS bowl. Now the Panthers have to travel to Lubbock and take on a well-rested A&M team that's improving for new coach Dennis Franchione. You never want to go into Aggie-land, especially on a downer.
The play: Texas A&M, one unit.
Kansas (+10) over Missouri: Kansas has won three in a row behind quarterback Bill Whittemore, who threw for four scores last week against Wyoming. The Cowboys are too easy, you say? Then how about the three TD passes he threw in the Jayhawks' easy win over UNLV -- the same UNLV that dominated Wisconsin and Hawaii the next two games. Mizzou is coming off an exhausting triple-overtime win over Middle Tennessee. Kansas is home getting a bundle of points in the conference opener. They just might win it.
The play: Kansas, two units at 10; one unit +9 ½ or less.
Texas vs. Tulane, over 62: Texas' win last week over Rice showed the Longhorns are focused once again. Question: If Army put up 33 points against Tulane, how many will Texas score against them, at Texas? Maybe a hundred, you say? Maybe. Even with the second- and third-stringers getting playing time, Texas should be able to put 63 on the board. The question is, can they stop Green Wave quarterback J.P. Losman from putting up 28? We think so, but we feel better about the over.
The play: Texas over 62, one unit.
Northern Illinois (-6 ½) over Iowa State: After victories over Maryland and at Alabama, no one is doubting that Northern Illinois is for real. Now they have their last big fish to fry, Iowa State, coming into their bandbox. The Cyclones, who have Oklahoma next week, looked very unprepared for Iowa two weeks ago, and we can't see them being thrilled about this road game. The Huskies' superb running game will dominate.
The play: Northern Illinois, one unit at 7 or less.
The Specials
Outside of the top 25 there are some intriguing opportunities, although who would've thought Northern Illinois would be inside the top 25? Another strong victory for Miami-Ohio and they'll be in the top 25 also. That and other examples follow.
Miami-Ohio (-7) over Cincinnati: The Redhawks dominated Northwestern at Northwestern. OK, that's one thing. But then to travel to Colorado State and completely dominate the Buffs, that's another. This team deserves to be in to top 20 and will show it this week. They have beaten Cincy the last two years, and this is a big recruiting game for Miami. The Bearcats will have their hands full.
The play: Miami-Ohio, one unit.
Louisville (-14) over Temple: The Cardinals have another great passing attack and are a threat to put up a big number. Temple has hung in valiantly in three close defeats, but last week's triple OT loss to Cincinnati has to pay its toll. The exhausted Owls won't know what hit them.
The play: Louisville, one unit up to 15.
Utah State (-13 ½) over UL Monroe: UL Monroe couldn't move the ball last week against Div. I-AA Northwestern State. On top of that, they lost on the last play of the game, 14-10. It could have been their only chance to win one this year after a similar loss to Stephen F. Austin. Utah State, on the other hand, hung in there with Arizona State, losing 26-16. This should be no contest, with Aggies QB Travis Cox throwing some easy TDs.
The play: Utah State, one unit up to 14.
Passing thoughts
Its hard not to think that TCU can't manhandle Arizona just like everyone else has. Until something is done at Arizona, you've got to play against them. ... Can't ever remember a time when a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team like Minnesota came into Happy Valley favored. This is Joe Paterno's last stand. Penn State should be ready. ... Looks like Florida State is getting Lorenzo Booker back at RB this week, which is bad news for a poor running defense like Duke's. ... Akron scores by the bushel. Buffalo can't seem to stop anyone. Does it matter where they play it?
Last week: 7-5-1 overall, + 5 units; Specials: 2-2-1, + 1 unit.
Season: 22-12-2 overall, + 10 units; Specials: 7-3-2, + 6 units.
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