Tennesse Vols @ Memphis Tigers Saturday ( early discussion)

[GrandPa]

I know the forum here doesn't usually like to look beyond 24 hours, but this game has been hyped for awhile and now involves the #1 and # 2 teams in an interstate matchup that features two legitimate title contenders in the Big Dance, and both are likely #1 seeds.

Anyway, I am predicting a line of Memphis -6.5, and will be betting on UT regardless of what the line is, as I feel they win SU, so I will also be playing UT on ML.

Memphis needs to lose one before the tourney, and they certainly will run the table at the C-USA tournament, and Tennessee is the hotter team, IMO, and the close calls the Tigers have been getting lately will cost them here, specifically at the FT line, where they rank #331 as a team in NCAA.

Tennessee ML and whatever the line is.


Let the debate begin

[ogarza]

I dont think the line will be that big, but I also like TENN and think they win it by at least 4

[aplous]

-5.5 at Pinnacle.

[ELJUGO]

over

[ctt8410]

This should be a high-scoring game, but the difference between the 2 teams will be defense and rebounding. Memphis will be well-served to pound the ball inside and take it right at Smith and Chism. Through last night's game, Tennessee is 268th in the country in 2-point defense at 51.1% and 290th in the country in defensive rebounding at only 63.8%. Meanwhile, this plays directly into Memphis' stengths. The Tigers are 19th in the country in 2-point FG% and 15th in the country in offensive rebounding.

In addition, Tennessee's defense relies on forcing turnovers and closely guarded 3-pointers. They forced just 12 turnovers in their loss to Texas and only 13 turnovers in their loss to Kentucky. Memphis turns the ball over on just 17.7% of their possessions (14th in the country) and are middle of the pack in 3-point attempts.

I think the FT argument is overrated. If Memphis shot 10 percentage points better then they'd be middle of the pack and average just 2.5 more points per game.

I look for Douglas-Roberts and Dorsey to have big games and Memphis should run away with it towards the end.

Memphis by 12

[meaiken]

gl with the play

I think Memphis wins a close one.
IMHO the line will be closer to 2 or 3, the game in Tenn.

[meaiken]

According to Saragan Rating ratings, this game is Pick ot tenn -.5

[ctt8410]

The game is at Memphis.

[birdog]

I thought it was at the Fed Ex Forum where Grizzlies play

Which will be like a home game for Memphis

[GrandPa]

According to Saragan Rating ratings, this game is Pick ot tenn -.5

When I referred to Sagarin, I got Memphis -7.5.

I guess there really is more than one way to read the tea leaves.

[aplous]

The line is out folks........it is -5.5 at Pinnacle.

IMO it goes down, but it is out.

IMO part II........everyone in the world hopes on UT, line goes down to about 4, Memphis rolls em, 95-77.

[Kaptain]

Memphis - 5 1/2.....ttl 159

by Sagarin ratings....Strength ratings, show Memphis -7....

however;

Memphis rated #1 vs sos of # 107
Tenn rated #6...................# 17

Conf USA rated as .75, SEC as .80....

Tenn has played tougher competition........

depends on how much you factor in SOS, and Home vs away.......

everyone looks at Sagarin differently.....

On pure numbers, and Memphis home team = Memphis -7
Factoring in SOS = Memphis - 2 1/2--- /3 1/2........ IMO

[vols fan]

Speed,speed,speed will be the difference in this one.Vols 84-79

[GrandPa]

I noticed in the trends/index section ( my fave) that #1 v #2 has occurred 4 times previously involving teams within the same state, and that #2 has won all 4 times.

[Chado1]

Speed,speed,speed will be the difference in this one.Vols 84-79

No bias here at all from someone whose user name is "VOLSFAN"...