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Week Four NFL.............
A moral victory last week going 4-4 (+.9 of a unit). This is the week we turn the corner. These are my plays..........
5 STAR: NEW ORLEANS (+1.5) OVER Indianapolis
I really like the Saints in this game. I feel that there is great value in this line due to the early season performance of these two teams. The Saints have not looked very good, coming in at 1-2, but both of those loses were on the road to teams that should be playoff contenders. New Orleans tends to play much better at home on the turf. The Colts are 3-0, but yet still I am not very impressed with their performance on the offensive side of the ball. Payton Manning has not throw for more than 216 yards in a game yet. The Colts are also 3-0 against the spread. In week four on the season teams that are road favorites and are 3-0 against the spread are only 2-15 against the spread in game four since 1985 and the Colts are only 4-12 against the spread after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992. Indianapolis is also only 4-12 against the spread after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons and 1-5 against the spread in road games after a home win over the last 3 seasons. Look for the Saints to get the win here!
3 STAR: Philadelphia (+3) OVER BUFFALO
Buffalo came back down to earth last week against the Dolphins and now return home to face the struggling Eagles. I like the fact that Philly had the extra week off to get ready for the Bills, while Buffalo played a very tough road game against a division rival. The Bills usually do not far well after playing Miami, as they are 2-20 against the spread after playing the Dolphins. This is an almost must win for the Eagles who are on a 19-8 against the spread run on the road, while Buffalo is only 2-5-1 against the spread in their last eight games against the NFC. I look for the Eagles to bounce back from their loss to the Patriots here at Buffalo. Philly is 10-3 against the spread in road games after a game where they committed four or more turnovers since 1992, 10-3 against the spread after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992, 16-4 against the spread after a straight up and against the spread loss and 5-1 against the spread in road games after a bye week since 1992. Look for Philly to get it done here!
3 STAR: BALTIMORE (+3) OVER Kansas City
The Chiefs have been strong out of the gate winning their first three games and now they bring their high powered offense to Baltimore,but I really like the Ravens in this spot. Baltimore is 12-4 against the spread when playing against a top-level team that has a winning percentage of 75% or bettor since 1992 and they are 10-3 against the spread versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons. The Ravens are also 5-1 against the spread in home games after a win by 10 or more points since 1992, 6-1 against the spread in home games after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons and 6-1 against the spread in home games against AFC West division opponents since 1992. The Chiefs are 7-22 against the spread after playing three straight games as a favorite since 1992 and 1-5 against the spread in road games off a double digit road win since 1992. Also, road favorites in week four of the season that are 3-0 against the spread are only 2-15 against the spread since 1985. Take the Ravens here!
3 STAR: Dallas (+3) OVER NY JETS
The Tuna brings his team to the Meadowlands for their second straight game having already beat the best team in New York. Now the Cowboys get to face another one of Parcells former teams, the struggling Jets. having an extra week to prepare for the Jets will be a great advantage for the Boys, and if anyone can come up with a game plan to rattle Testaverde (its not very hard these days) it should be the Tuna. Dallas has too much team speed on both sides of the ball for the Jets to handle, and if they take care of the ball Dallas should get their second straight win at the Meadowlands. Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a road loss against a division rival, in the first month of the season are 9-30 against the spread since 1983. The Jets are 15-33 against the spread in home games after playing a game as a road underdog since 1992, 4-16 against the spread in home games in the first month of the season since 1992 and 6-18 against the spread after a road loss against a division rival since 1992. Also, road underdogs after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in their last game are a solid 32-10 over the last 5 seasons. Play the 'Boys here!
2 STAR: Cincinnati (+5.5) OVER CLEVELAND
The Browns got a big win at San Francisco last week in what most of the Cleveland plays called a must win. This could be a real flat spot for the Browns facing the winless Bengals. Cleveland has struggled to put points on the board so far this season averaging just over 10 points per game so far, so asking them to cover almost a full touchdown seems to be a bit much. This could be a real good spot for the Bengals to pick up their first win of the season. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after three or more consecutive losses and their winning percentage is 25% or less on the season are 94-50 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after playing their last game on the road, in the first half of the season are only 45-78 against the spread. Take the points here!
2 STAR: Detroit (+12.5) OVER DENVER
I see this as a real flat spot for the Broncos as they get caught in a sandwich game here having played the Raiders on Monday night and having the Chiefs coming up next week. The Broncos are 0-6 against the spread after a home win against a division rival over the last three seasons, 1-5 against the spread in home games after a win by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons, 1-5 against the spread in home games against NFC North division opponents since 1992 and 1-8 against the spread after scoring 30 points or more in three straight games since 1992. I think the Lions offense will be more productive this week and keep them within striking range. Detroit is 8-1 against the spread in road games after a home loss by 10 or more points since 1992 and 8-2 against the spread in road games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games since 1992. The Lions due have a pretty bad defense, but underdogs that have a terrible defense that is allowing 360 or more yards per game and allowed more than 400 yards in their last game are 39-14 against the spread. Play the Lions here!
I'm watching the lines and injuries on two more games and my add one or two more plays later in the week.
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 3-3 (-1.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 3-5 (-7.5 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 1-5-1 (-9.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 7-13-1 (-18.0 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $1800.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
5 STAR: NEW ORLEANS (+1.5) OVER Indianapolis
I really like the Saints in this game. I feel that there is great value in this line due to the early season performance of these two teams. The Saints have not looked very good, coming in at 1-2, but both of those loses were on the road to teams that should be playoff contenders. New Orleans tends to play much better at home on the turf. The Colts are 3-0, but yet still I am not very impressed with their performance on the offensive side of the ball. Payton Manning has not throw for more than 216 yards in a game yet. The Colts are also 3-0 against the spread. In week four on the season teams that are road favorites and are 3-0 against the spread are only 2-15 against the spread in game four since 1985 and the Colts are only 4-12 against the spread after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992. Indianapolis is also only 4-12 against the spread after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons and 1-5 against the spread in road games after a home win over the last 3 seasons. Look for the Saints to get the win here!
3 STAR: Philadelphia (+3) OVER BUFFALO
Buffalo came back down to earth last week against the Dolphins and now return home to face the struggling Eagles. I like the fact that Philly had the extra week off to get ready for the Bills, while Buffalo played a very tough road game against a division rival. The Bills usually do not far well after playing Miami, as they are 2-20 against the spread after playing the Dolphins. This is an almost must win for the Eagles who are on a 19-8 against the spread run on the road, while Buffalo is only 2-5-1 against the spread in their last eight games against the NFC. I look for the Eagles to bounce back from their loss to the Patriots here at Buffalo. Philly is 10-3 against the spread in road games after a game where they committed four or more turnovers since 1992, 10-3 against the spread after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992, 16-4 against the spread after a straight up and against the spread loss and 5-1 against the spread in road games after a bye week since 1992. Look for Philly to get it done here!
3 STAR: BALTIMORE (+3) OVER Kansas City
The Chiefs have been strong out of the gate winning their first three games and now they bring their high powered offense to Baltimore,but I really like the Ravens in this spot. Baltimore is 12-4 against the spread when playing against a top-level team that has a winning percentage of 75% or bettor since 1992 and they are 10-3 against the spread versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons. The Ravens are also 5-1 against the spread in home games after a win by 10 or more points since 1992, 6-1 against the spread in home games after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons and 6-1 against the spread in home games against AFC West division opponents since 1992. The Chiefs are 7-22 against the spread after playing three straight games as a favorite since 1992 and 1-5 against the spread in road games off a double digit road win since 1992. Also, road favorites in week four of the season that are 3-0 against the spread are only 2-15 against the spread since 1985. Take the Ravens here!
3 STAR: Dallas (+3) OVER NY JETS
The Tuna brings his team to the Meadowlands for their second straight game having already beat the best team in New York. Now the Cowboys get to face another one of Parcells former teams, the struggling Jets. having an extra week to prepare for the Jets will be a great advantage for the Boys, and if anyone can come up with a game plan to rattle Testaverde (its not very hard these days) it should be the Tuna. Dallas has too much team speed on both sides of the ball for the Jets to handle, and if they take care of the ball Dallas should get their second straight win at the Meadowlands. Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a road loss against a division rival, in the first month of the season are 9-30 against the spread since 1983. The Jets are 15-33 against the spread in home games after playing a game as a road underdog since 1992, 4-16 against the spread in home games in the first month of the season since 1992 and 6-18 against the spread after a road loss against a division rival since 1992. Also, road underdogs after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in their last game are a solid 32-10 over the last 5 seasons. Play the 'Boys here!
2 STAR: Cincinnati (+5.5) OVER CLEVELAND
The Browns got a big win at San Francisco last week in what most of the Cleveland plays called a must win. This could be a real flat spot for the Browns facing the winless Bengals. Cleveland has struggled to put points on the board so far this season averaging just over 10 points per game so far, so asking them to cover almost a full touchdown seems to be a bit much. This could be a real good spot for the Bengals to pick up their first win of the season. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after three or more consecutive losses and their winning percentage is 25% or less on the season are 94-50 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after playing their last game on the road, in the first half of the season are only 45-78 against the spread. Take the points here!
2 STAR: Detroit (+12.5) OVER DENVER
I see this as a real flat spot for the Broncos as they get caught in a sandwich game here having played the Raiders on Monday night and having the Chiefs coming up next week. The Broncos are 0-6 against the spread after a home win against a division rival over the last three seasons, 1-5 against the spread in home games after a win by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons, 1-5 against the spread in home games against NFC North division opponents since 1992 and 1-8 against the spread after scoring 30 points or more in three straight games since 1992. I think the Lions offense will be more productive this week and keep them within striking range. Detroit is 8-1 against the spread in road games after a home loss by 10 or more points since 1992 and 8-2 against the spread in road games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games since 1992. The Lions due have a pretty bad defense, but underdogs that have a terrible defense that is allowing 360 or more yards per game and allowed more than 400 yards in their last game are 39-14 against the spread. Play the Lions here!
I'm watching the lines and injuries on two more games and my add one or two more plays later in the week.
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 3-3 (-1.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 3-5 (-7.5 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 1-5-1 (-9.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 7-13-1 (-18.0 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $1800.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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