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**pm530** · 02-03-2008, 04:50 AM

National Football League – Indexes, trends, stats, info.

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NFL
Dunkel Index

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
The Super Bowl features a rematch of Week 16 when the Giants gave New England a scare before losing (38-35). New York rode the motivation from that performance to three straight road wins in the playoffs, extending their road winning streak to 10 games. The Patriots continue to win, but not in the impressive fashion of earlier in the season and come into the game 0-5 ATS in their last five contests. The Giants are the underdog pick (+12) according to Dunkel, which has New England favored by only 9. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+12). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 3

Game 101-102: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.052; New England 146.340
Dunkel Line: New England by 9; 49
Vegas Line: New England by 12; 54
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+12); Under

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NFL
Long Sheet

Super Bowl XLII

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Sunday, February 3
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NY GIANTS (13 - 6) vs. NEW ENGLAND (18 - 0) - 2/3/2008, 6:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 52-30 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
NY GIANTS are 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

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Sunday, February 3
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Super Bowl XLII
TV: FOX
NY Giants vs. New England, 6:20 ET

NY Giants:
9-2 ATS in road games
8-2 ATS as an underdog

New England:
2-8 ATS off 8+ wins
1-8 ATS off a SU home win / ATS loss

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NFL
Write-up

Sunday, February 3

Super Bowl (Glendale,AZ)

With two weeks since conference championship games, Super Bowl gets overanalyzed, so I'm just going to present some stuff I think about the game, then give you who I think is right side to have Sunday night.

-- Giants didn't have a bye before playoffs, so extra time off has to help them more than it does the Patriots.

-- New England won 38-35 in Swamp in Week 17 Sunday nighter, a game Giants led 26-14 in second half.

-- Patriots covered first ten games, but only one of last eight, as New England does enough to get by, even though their they've shown some cracks.

-- New England likes to blitz (only about 33% of their sacks were by defensive linemen), so critical for Giants to protect Eli against the blitz, so he find advantageous matchups against the slowish defenders Patriots do have.

-- Eli Manning played in the SEC; he led Ole Miss to a win in the Cotton Bowl, so he has played well before in big games. He also is definitely being helped by his brother, who played lot against New England, and can advise him as to what to expect.

-- Do you know how rare it is for an NFL team to win ten games in row on the road? It hardly ever happens-- it is a streak that must be respected.

-- That said, no team has ever been 18-0 before, although certain amount of pressure comes with that.

'72 Dolphins were last team to go unbeaten; they won 14-7 in one of worst Super Bowls, if not worst Super Bowl ever played, so if the Patriots finish 19-0, it doesn't mean they have to be pretty in this game, they just have to win, just as they did the last three times they were in Super Bowl, winning all three games by three.

I think Giants (+12) are right side in this game. Patriots, 31-20.

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**pm530** · 02-03-2008, 04:54 AM

NFL

Sunday, February 3

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Tips and Trends
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New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Super Bowl XLII (FOX | 6:30 PM ET)

New York is trying to become the 2nd team in NFL history to win all of its playoff games on the road and then hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy, following the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XL. The Giants have won 10 straight away from home, going 9-1 ATS, with the lone loss coming in a 13-10 victory against Miami in London back on October 28th. EDGE: GIANTS
The Patriots are going for the 1st 19-0 season in NFL history and are already the 1st team to start 18-0. However, after covering their 1st 8 games of the regular season, they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10, including 0-2 in the playoffs with a nearly identical spread as this one. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. EDGE: GIANTS
These teams met in the regular-season finale, which the Giants used as a springboard to the Super Bowl. Some questioned whether or not they would be mentally and physically drained after playing the Patriots hard when they had nothing on the line, but instead they gained a ton of confidence. Quarterback Eli Manning even admitted after winning the NFC Championship that playing competitively against New England in a playoff-type atmosphere is one of the main reasons they earned a rematch in the Super Bowl. EDGE: GIANTS
Manning continues his growth and maturity for the Giants with 8 touchdown passes and just 1 interception in his last 4 games. Ironically, that pick came against the Patriots, who were burned by 4 TD passes as well, 2 of which went to Plaxico Burress. While Manning's development has been crucial, New England QB Tom Brady is clearly in a league of his own as he goes for his 4th Super Bowl title in 4 attempts. Brady has been named Super Bowl MVP twice and is coming off the best regular season of any QB in league history with an NFL-record 50 touchdown passes. EDGE: PATRIOTS
New England is definitely seeing the benefit of a healthy Laurence Maroney, who remains as fresh as any running back the NFL has ever seen in the playoffs. Maroney was very limited for a majority of the regular season, sitting out 3 full games and carrying the ball 15 times or less in 9 other games. Maroney had scored just 2 touchdowns in the 1st 13 games of the regular season, but he has scored at least once in each of the last 5 - scoring 6 total during that stretch - including 2 in the regular-season finale against the Giants. He has rushed for 122 yards in each of the team's 2 playoff games so far on a combined 47 carries. BIG EDGE: PATRIOTS
Patriots are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 40-19-3 ATS in ther last 62 games on grass.
The UNDER is 13-5-1 in New England's last 19 playoff games.

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NFL
Recent Trends

Sunday, February 3

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NFL Recent Trends
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N.Y. Giants (13-6) vs New England (18-0)

New England:
Under is 13-5-1 in NE last 19 playoff games.
NE are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
NE are 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass.

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NFL

Sunday, February 3

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NFL In Depth Trends
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Trends – New York Giants vs. New England Patriots

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher.
Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

N.Y. Giants
Giants are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.

New England
Patriots are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

O/U Trends

N.Y. Giants
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 playoff games.
Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games on grass.
Under is 44-19-2 in Giants last 65 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

New England
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games on grass.
Under is 4-1-1 in Patriots last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 4-1-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall.
Under is 13-5-1 in Patriots last 19 playoff games.
Over is 9-4-1 in Patriots last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.

Head to Head
No trends available.

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NFL

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NFL – 5 Statistics
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Five Super Bowl stats you should know

With all the hype about this year’s Super Bowl it’s going to be relatively easy to find the obvious betting statistics, like against the spread and over/under records between the Pats and the Giants.

To give bettors a greater edge in their Super Bowl betting, we’ve gone back through 20 years worth of statistics to bring you a few nuggets of information that could help you make some money.

1. Big favorites have mixed results

The Patriots are hefty 12-point favorites to beat the Giants, which is not surprising for a team that is 18-0. But how have big favorites fared against the spread in past Super Bowls?

Favorites of seven points or more have gone 7-6-1 against the spread in the Super Bowl since the 1986 season, while faves of 10 points or more have gone 4-3-1. Ironically, the biggest spread over that time came in the 2002 clash between St. Louis and New England. The Rams were 14-point favorites, but ended up losing 20-17 to the Pats.

In their next two Super Bowl appearances, the Patriots were seven-point favorites. But they failed to cover on both occasions, beating the Panthers by three in 2004 and the Eagles by three in 2005. In fact, the Pats have been to five Super Bowls in 21 years, but have covered just once.

2. NFC wins battle of the East

Recent history is on the Giants’ side if you look back at Super Bowl matchups between teams from the AFC East and the NFC East.

In the five contests between teams from those divisions in the past 20 years, the NFC East teams are 4-1 straight and 5-0 against the spread, with three of those games going over the total. The Giants were involved in one of those battles, beating the Buffalo Bills 20-19 in 1991.

But the only AFC East team to hand an NFC East franchise a Super Bowl loss over that time was the New England Patriots. They beat the Eagles 24-21 in 2005.

3. Giants home record sets a record

The Giants set an unwanted record this season, becoming the only team in history to make football’s showpiece game, despite having a losing home record.

New York went 3-5 at home this season, losing to Green Bay, Dallas, Minnesota, Washington and New England at Giants Stadium. They lost to the Packers and Dallas by a combined 33 points in those home losses, but it’s worth noting that they defeated both teams on the road in the playoffs.

The home loss to New England will also be a source of encouragement for the Giants. They were only the third team this season to take a lead into the final quarter against the Patriots (28-23), but ended up losing 38-35 because of Tom Brady’s pinpoint passing under pressure.

4. Don’t overlook the total

There have only been five Super Bowls in the last 20 years with a total of 50 or more, with two of them going over the total and the other three going under. The Patriots were involved in one of those games – their 2004 win over Carolina went over the 53-point total.

Of more relevance are the total trends in recent matchups between the Pats and the Giants. Three straight meetings between these teams have gone over, but the totals only ranged from 35 to 46 ½ over that period.

In fact, the 53 ½-point spread between the New England and New York is the highest in well over 10 years and is likely the reaction of oddsmakers to the offensive shootout these teams produced in their last meeting.

5. Successful road teams in the Super Bowl

The New York Giants have won 10 straight road games (a single season record), including three straight in this season’s playoffs. Only five wild-card teams since 1970 have reached the Super Bowl.

The two most recent were the 1986 New England Patriots and the 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots went on to lose the ‘86 final to the Chicago Bears – a 46-10 blowout loss. But the Steelers continued their momentum, defeating Seattle 21-10 as four-point favorites.

Although the Super Bowl is technically at a neutral venue in Arizona, the Giants have been designated as the visiting team.

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NFL
What bettors need to know…….

Sunday, February 3

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What bettors need to know: Giants vs. Patriots
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What bettors need to know: Super Bowl XLII

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET (-12, 53 ½)

Line moves

Some Vegas sportsbooks opened with New England favored by as many as 13 ½ points. Since then, heavy action on New York has moved the line to Patriots -12 at most Vegas and offshore books. The game’s total has held steady between 53 ½ and 54 points.

Brady’s boot

On Monday, Tom Brady was photographed heading from an SUV to his girlfriend Gisele Bundchen's apartment in New York on what looked like a walking cast on his right foot.

"Ah, you know, there's always bumps and bruises. I'll be ready for the Super Bowl," Brady said Monday during his weekly radio appearance on WEEI. "I'm not worried about that. I'm not missing this one. I'd have to be on a stretcher to miss this one. There will be treatment this week. In games like this, you get a little nicked up. It's nothing serious."

Stay tuned for updates.

Raising Arizona

The Super Bowl will be played at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The stadium, which opened Aug. 1, 2006, features a retractable grass field and roof and should accommodate more than 73,000 fans.

Slaying the Giants

New York gave up 80 combined points in its first two games of the season, both of which, not surprisingly, ended up as straight up and ATS losses. Since then, the Giants have held 14 of their last 17 opponents to 24 points or fewer with only Dallas, Minnesota and New England topping that total. The Giants lost all three of those games, covering only against New England in Week 17’s 38-35 loss.

The kicking game

New York’s Lawrence Tynes was 23-of-27 in his field goal attempts in the regular season, with all four of his misses coming on kicks from less than 40 yards out. Tynes missed two huge field goal attempts during the NFC championship game, but he hit the one that counted in overtime from 47 yards. His longest kick of the year was a 48-yarder.

Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski hit 21 of his 24 regular season field goal attempts, with two misses from outside 40 yards. He has only attempted two field goals in the playoffs, hitting one of them. His longest kick of the year was a 45-yarder.

Super stats

The Giants are 5-0 in their last five against the spread and against teams with a winning record.

The Patriots are 0-5 in their last five against the spread.

The favored team has gone 9-3 straight up and 4-6-2 against the spread in the last dozen Super Bowls.

Teams that score more than 27 points in the Super Bowl are 23-1 and 22-2-1 against the spread. New England has averaged 35.6 points per game, while New York averages 23.2.

Recent meetings

The two teams have split the last four meetings between them dating back to 2005, but the Giants covered the number in three of those games. The over cashed in three times as well.

Notable injuries:

New England:
Tom Brady QB - (ankle) probable.
Mike Wright DE - (foot) IR
Rosevelt Colvin LB - (foot) IR
Sammy Morris RB - (chest) IR
David Thomas TE - (foot) IR

New York:
Rich Seubert OG - (knee) questionable
Craig Dahl S - (knee) IR
Jeremy Shockey TE - (leg) IR
Derrick Ward RB – (fibula) IR
Mathias Kiwanuka LB – (leg) IR
Robert Douglas FB – (knee) IR
Adrian Awasom DL – (back) IR
Jim Finn FB – (shoulder) IR
Will Demps SS – (elbow) IR

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NFL
Key Matchups

Sunday, February 3

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Giants vs. Patriots: the key matchups
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Matchups for the Super Bowl between the New York Giants and New England Patriots on Feb. 3 at the University of Phoenix Stadium:

When the Giants have the ball

Having scored 35 points in their season-finale loss to New England, the Giants know they can move the ball on the Patriots. Moving the ball is not enough, though. Nor is kicking field goals. New York must reach the end zone several times, while also trying to use up the clock.

That means Brandon Jacobs (27) and Ahmad Bradshaw (44) running often. Both have been particularly effective down the stretch, with the rookie Bradshaw breaking some long runs. New England is most vulnerable in that area, although calling the Patriots' run defense a weakness would be an exaggeration.

Linebackers Tedy Bruschi (54), Mike Vrabel (50), Junior Seau (55) and Adalius Thomas (96) will be kept busy by those running backs. The Giants could be without left guard Rich Seubert (69), who hurt his knee, which won't help against the assortment of defensive linemen New England uses. The star is Richard Seymour (93), who missed half the season recovering from a knee injury and has not been particularly dynamic yet. But Ty Warren (94) and Vince Wilfork (75) certainly have been, and Jarvis Green (97) provides depth up front.

New York's blocking has been superb in the playoffs, providing ample protection for Eli Manning (10) and opening wide holes for the running backs. Tackle David Diehl (66) and guard Chris Snee (76) have been particularly impressive.

If Manning gets the same amount of time he's received recently, his hookups with WRs Plaxico Burress (17) and Amani Toomer (81), and rookies Steve Smith (12) and TE Kevin Boss (89) will give the Patriots plenty of trouble. Burress is not the deep threat the Patriots' Randy Moss (81) provides, but he's nearly as dangerous because of his size, good hands and athletic ability. Burress also has been at his healthiest recently, which makes him a matchup problem for Asante Samuel (22) and Ellis Hobbs (27).

Manning has been at his most accurate, playing the best football of his four-year career. His playoff numbers - particularly four touchdowns to no interceptions and a 99.2 rating - are worthy of brother Peyton, last year's Super Bowl MVP.

When the Patriots have the ball

Unquestionably, the key for New York is slowing Moss, who overwhelmed Giants cornerbacks and safeties in the last meeting. Moss had six receptions for 100 yards and two TDs as he broke Jerry Rice's NFL mark with 23 touchdown catches. While Corey Webster (23) has made some big plays in the postseason, he'll need help from Gibril Wilson (28) and the other safeties. The Giants must be aggressive in their approach against Moss.

Of course, that usually leaves Wes Welker (83) with single coverage, and Welker can be destructive on underneath routes. He had 11 catches for 122 yards in the season finale.

There's also Donte' Stallworth (18) and Jabar Gaffney (10) for New York cornerbacks Webster, Sam Madison (29), rookie Aaron Ross (31) and R.W. McQuarters (25) to deal with. The safeties have to handle tight end Benjamin Watson (84), who's extremely dangerous in the red zone.

Plus, there's RB Kevin Faulk (33) on screens, flares and other short passes he turns into decent gains, particularly on first down. Faulk also is terrific on third downs for the highest-scoring offense in league history.

Faulk won't do a lot of running with RB Laurence Maroney (39) now a focal point of the offense. Maroney has run for 244 yards and two TDs and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry.

Engineering it all is the league MVP, Tom Brady (12), who is 3-0 in Super Bowls, twice earning MVP honors. Unless the Giants get ample pressure on Brady with their standout linemen - Michael Strahan (92), Osi Umenyiora (72), Justin Tuck (91) and Fred Robbins (98) - and linebacker Antonio Pierce (58), Brady might get a third individual trophy.

Brady supposedly has a slight ankle injury. Or maybe coach Bill Belichick invented that to make his superb offensive line even stauncher in their protection. Tackle Matt Light (72), guard Logan Mankins (70) and center Dan Koppen (67) are the standouts.

Special Teams

Adam Vinatieri played a leading role in all three Patriots Super Bowl victories, and then won a title with Indianapolis last year. Now Stephen Gostkowski (3) does the placekicking, and he's money.

Lawrence Tynes (9) was inconsistent in his first year with the Giants, and he missed two potential winning field goals at frigid Green Bay in the title game. But he made a 47-yarder to send New York to the Super Bowl.

Patriots punter Chris Hanson (6) didn't get used much during the season, and his gross average in the playoffs is 38.0 yards, less than 20-year veteran Jeff Feagles' net. Feagles (18) is appearing in his first Super Bowl despite two decades in the league.

Neither team has dangerous threats on kick or punt returns, although Domenik Hixon (87) has given the Giants a late-season spark. Hobbs had a 108-yard kickoff return, but that was in the opener.

Coaching

A matchup of former colleagues with the Giants under Bill Parcells. Belichick has won three titles with the Patriots and, given two weeks to prepare for a team, he is virtually unbeatable. Then again, his team has been totally unbeatable this season.

The 2007 Coach of the Year despite the Spygate scandal that cost him a $500,000 league fine, Belichick will come up with a variety of defensive schemes to confuse Manning. His offense will be full-throttle all game.

Coughlin's work this season has been very impressive, too. The Giants were 8-8 in 2006 and barely squeezed into the playoffs, where they lost in the first round. Another such performance might have led to his firing.

Instead, he's improved his relationship with the players and, during the postseason, he's developed solid game plans that the Giants have executed magnificently. Coughlin heads to his first Super Bowl as a head coach with a contract extension certain.

Intangibles

New York simply doesn't lose on the road, and the Giants are the designated away team at University of Phoenix Stadium. They've won 10 straight away games, and they have outplayed all three opponents in the playoffs on both sides of the ball.

Don't forget that they tested the Patriots on Dec. 29, even led by 12 points in the third quarter. And all the pressure is on New England.

Not that the Patriots care about pressure. They are the, uh, perfect example of a team that responds to whatever challenge. This is the best version of any of the Pats teams to make the Super Bowl this decade, and their undefeated record has placed them in a glaring spotlight for months.

New England is experienced, well-rounded and incredibly focused on this championship.

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**pm530** · 02-03-2008, 04:55 AM

NFL
Line Report

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NFL – Super Bowl line report
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(01-20-08)

Patriots heavy favorites against Giants at Vegas sports books

LAS VEGAS (AP) -New England Patriots fans who want to bet on their team in the Super Bowl will face a significant point spread against the underdog Giants as quarterback Tom Brady aims for a 19-0 record and fourth championship ring.

The Patriots are favored by 13 to 14 points against the New York Giants (13-6) at Las Vegas sports books, a higher-than-normal spread to entice underdog bettors on the biggest booked game of the season.

''The Patriots are still considered by far the best team in the league,'' said Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton. ''We obviously make that line to get equal action on both sides. To do that, because of the perception of the Patriots, we have to increase their number more than usual.''

Bets were flowing in on the Patriots early in the season as they destroyed opponents and the spread, but the team has won by a margin that was larger than the spread only once in its last eight games, said Chuck Esposito, Caesars Palace's assistant vice president of race and sports book operations.

''A game of this magnitude, historically you'll see some money on the favorite,'' said Esposito, who put the Patriots as 14-point favorites. ''I think that's one of the reasons that the number might be a little bit high.''

The spread is the point difference oddsmakers set to even out lopsided matchups. A bettor who put $110 on the Patriots would need the team to beat the Giants by at least 14 or 15 points to get back $210, which includes his original bet.

Oddsmakers set the total score of the two teams at around 55. Bettors can wager that the final total will be more or less than that amount.

Kornegay predicted a record handle at Nevada sports books, topping the $94.5 million record set in 2006 when Pittsburgh beat Seattle 21-10.

The Patriots are trying to become the second team in NFL history to go undefeated. They already beat the Giants this season, winning 38-35 in the regular-season finale.

''The Giants played right with them for the majority of the game,'' Esposito said. ''And there will be another Manning (New York quarterback Eli Manning) in the Big Game.''

MGM Mirage Inc. sports book director Robert Walker expected the handle in Nevada sports books to hit $100 million.

''I think with the New York team and the Patriots being the most popular team in football, it has the makings of being a special game,'' he said.

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Pats always Super Bowl faves
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(01-28-08)

The New England Patriots are sitting as 12-point favorites to get past the New York Giants and win the Super Bowl on Sunday - but where were they listed in the summer?

During our rundown of the Super Bowl odds back in June we found that the Vegas oddsmakers had spurned the defending-champion Indianapolis Colts and instead pegged Tom Brady and company as the favorites. New England was installed at 5/1 championship odds at that time, while Indianapolis was just a bit behind them at 11/2.

So if you wagered on the Patriots to win Super Bowl XLII back in June you're now waiting for that 5/1 payoff on Sunday night. On the other hand, if you wagered on the Colts to win a second consecutive championship this year you're down a bit of money.

How did the rest of the National Football League fare on those early lines? The San Diego Chargers were third at 6/1 odds, followed by the Chicago Bears at 8/1, and the Baltimore Ravens at 10/1. The New Orleans Saints were pegged at 12/1 odds to win the title, while the Cincinnati Bengals and the Seattle Seahawks were both at 15/1. Of those six teams only the Chargers and the Seahawks managed to make the postseason.

The other eight playoff teams this season all began the year with Super Bowl odds of 20/1 or worse. The Dallas Cowboys led that group at 20/1, while the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Pittsburgh Steelers were at 25/1. The Green Bay Packers and the Washington Redskins were both back on the list at just 50/1 odds, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sitting at 60/1, and the Tennessee Titans close to the bottom at 70/1 odds.

And what about the Giants, who could still pay off on that futures bet this weekend? Vegas had Eli Manning's team sitting at 30/1 odds to win the Super Bowl back in June.

If you'd like to skip ahead to next year's Super Bowl and lock in some longshots you can find those early championship odds provided by the Vegas oddsmakers right now. The biggest money can be made on huge turnarounds by the Atlanta Falcons and the Miami Dolphins - should one of those clubs get an unlikely Super Bowl win they pay at 150/1.

Four other teams are listed at 100/1 odds or higher to win Super Bowl XLIII - the Kansas City Chiefs are at 100/1, while each of the Ravens, Oakland Raiders, and San Francisco 49ers are at 125/1. However, no team listed at 100/1 odds or worse by the Vegas oddsmakers in the preseason last season managed to advance to the playoffs.

So who is listed as the favorite for next year's Super Bowl? The same team that is currently the favorite to win this year's Super Bowl. The Patriots are sitting high atop the odds list for next year's championship at 5/2, with the Cowboys and Colts the closest teams to them at 6/1. Next up are Brett Favre's Packers, who are pegged with 7/1 odds.

The Giants are in the Super Bowl this week, but that feat only has them listed seventh at 12/1 odds to win next year's championship - the Jaguars and Chargers are also ahead of them at 10/1. The Seahawks and Steelers are both listed at 18/1 odds to win Super Bowl XLIII, while the Bucs are 28/1, and the Titans and Redskins sit at 30/1 odds.

The Saints and Bears both fell to 7-9 this season, but they're listed at modest 20/1 and 25/1 odds, respectively, to win next year's Super Bowl. The Cleveland Browns had the most wins of any non-playoff team this year, and they're at 30/1 to get into the next postseason and win it all. The Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, and Minnesota Vikings are at 38/1, while the Philadelphia Eagles and the Arizona Cardinals are at 45/1.

Bigger longshots to win Super Bowl XLIII include the Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions, and Houston Texans, who all opened at lucrative 60/1 odds to become the champions. The New York Jets and the St. Louis Rams trail on that list at 75/1 odds.

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Super Bowl action report: Oddsmakers tell all
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(Note: Any reference to a specific book or web site has been deleted)

Wondering what’s going on at the sportsbooks a few days before the Super Bowl?

What’s the action been like so far? Are you seeing increased betting as we get closer to Sunday?

Bill Nevin, oddsmaker: I would say 95 percent of the action is on the day. Generally the only people betting now are sharps or people who are going to be away from their computers or phones at the weekend. Most people only start to think about a Super Bowl wager at about lunchtime on Sunday.

Ken White, consultant: So far so good, the early wagering has been about average. But we can expect about 80 percent of the overall handle to be wagered on Super Bowl weekend.

Francis Doyle, oddsmaker: The action has been fantastic. A team going for the first perfect season since 1972 against a team from the biggest city in the USA. What’s not to like there?

Where’s most of the action coming in on, the points or the chalk, over or under?

Randy Scott, sportsbook manager: The early action has been based on the pointspread. When the line opened at -13 the early bettors came in heavy on New York and there was only light betting on the New England side. That made the line drop to -12 ½ , then -12 and now -11 ½. This week is different, New England bettors are beginning to get down - and with confidence. The per-bet volume ratio for this game is 2:1 in favor of the Giants, yet the bet amount per-side is almost even - that means Patriots backers are betting more money.

Bill Nevin: All the early money was for the Giants but as the week has gone on the support has all been for the Pats. At 10 a.m. today 81 percent of the pointspread wagers are on New England -12, and 56 percent of the cash has been on the over.

Ken White: All of the early wagering has been professional money on the New York Giants. The injury news concerning Tom Brady led professionals to take an early lead. Most professionals are siding against a slight inflated line for the Patriots anyway, so the news of Brady in a walking boot pushed the sharp money the window. Early total action was on the under, however since this past weekend more money has shown up for the over creating balance action.

Francis Doyle: The line was set high initially on the basis that squares would eat up the chalk. This has not happened, and the Giants are proving quite a popular pick. Even the general sports media are giving the Giants far more of a chance than they gave the Patriots themselves against the Rams six years ago. People believe in the Giants. So far.

How much action are you expecting for game day?

Randy Scott: Sunday will draw 50 percent of the overall expected action. Meaning our action will double in volume on that day.

Bill Nevin: We expect to be up about 10 percent on last year. It’s not a total glamour tie but it’s good to have New York represented as it boosts handle. It is always best when it is two big city teams in terms of handle, but I think this is an interesting matchup so the handle will be reasonable.

Ken White: I expect the State of Nevada will surpass the record handle of 94.5 billion.

Do you think the line will hold firm until kickoff? If not, which way might it move and why would that be?

Randy Scott: I think we'll see a steady increase in action stay on the Patriots as the weekend approaches. That should raise the line back up to the opening number, maybe more come Super Bowl Sunday.

Bill Nevin: Twelve seems like a pretty solid line unless there is any injury news. Our linesmakers would be reluctant to move off that unless the public became really caught up with the Pats.

Ken White: With Tom Brady looking more like himself and general public money outweighing professional money on game day, the line will go back up to 13 or 13 1/2.

Francis Doyle: We’re expecting action all the way to the kickoff and beyond, but we expect the line to hold steady. We’ll be doing live betting during the game which we expect to be popular too.

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**pm530** · 02-03-2008, 04:56 AM

NFL
Reports

for Sunday’s game (February 3)

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Reports: Super Bowl
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NFL Rumors

Walking wounded: Brady spotted in cast
Monday, Jan 21, 2008 11:44 pm EST

AP
Fans of the New England Patriots had to be swallowing hard Monday when pictures of quarterback Tom Brady sporting a walking cast on his right foot surfaced.

A video taken of Brady in New York Sunday, which is available on TMZ, shows the NFL's MVP returning to girlfriend Gisele Bundchen's apartment. He's walking gingerly on the sidewalk after emerging from a black SUV parked on the street.

During his weekly appearance on WEEI's "Dennis and Callahan" show, Brady didn't dismiss the notion he had suffered some type of leg injury during Sunday's AFC Championship win. "Ah, you know, there's always bumps and bruises. I'll be ready for the Super Bowl," Brady said, when asked point-blank if he had a leg injury.

Source: Boston Herald

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UPDATE

Brady's injury minor - Boot is seen as just a precaution

Boston Globe / January 23, 2008

The sight of star quarterback Tom Brady wearing a protective boot over his right foot Monday had New York tabloids buzzing and Patriots followers fearing the worst, but the injury is not serious.

Brady has a high right ankle sprain, according to an NFL source, which explains why he was wearing the device during a visit to New York. The sprain, which is minor, will not jeopardize Brady's chances of playing in Super Bowl XLII Feb. 3, the source said.

Both the Patriots and Giants are not required to submit an injury report until a week from today. The Patriots do not return to practice until tomorrow.

Two medical experts, neither of whom is treating Brady, indicated that he likely was wearing the boot as a preventative measure.

"Since two weeks remain [to the game], the medical/training staff may have determined that using this short leg walker would provide some relief of pressure, and provide support and rest, even if it was a minor injury," said Dr. Michael A. Robinson, a sports podiatrist and foot surgeon based in Brookline. "The short leg walker would help promote more rapid recovery."

Dr. Nicholas DiNubile, an orthopedic surgeon specializing in sports medicine, further described the benefit of the boot.

"It is a way to rest that body part and prevent the normal movement that goes on with everyday walking," said DiNubile, who serves as an orthopedic consultant to the Philadelphia 76ers. "That allows things to settle down because it's protecting that area and preventing the motions.

"Not knowing the specifics, it looks to me that they just wanted to put it to rest for a day or two."

Brady's foot became a hot topic when he was photographed in New York City Monday afternoon. Gossip website TMZ.com also posted a 1-minute-18-second video clip of Brady and his girlfriend, Gisele Bundchen, which showed Brady favoring his right foot.

Later in the night, Brady was photographed again in New York City, but without the boot.

Brady's father was a guest on 1510 ESPN radio in New York yesterday, and said that if the injury were serious, Brady would have spoken to him about it. Tom Brady Sr. also said that there is no question Brady will play.

"If he had to go out there with two crutches and a cast on each leg, he is playing," Brady Sr. said. "He won't voluntarily walk off the field. Anybody that thinks a little tweak is going to stop [him] is just wasting ink."

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TOM'S PLAYING PATRIOT GAMES

January 25, 2008-- FOXBOROUGH - Who said the Patriots don't have a game until Super Bowl XXLII against the Giants on Feb. 3 in Arizona?
They played a game yesterday - a high-stakes cat-and-mouse game of hide-and-seek with their superstar quarterback Tom Brady.

Should there be there considerable concern about the health of Brady and his famously photographed ailing right ankle?

The footsie-playing Patriots would love the Giants to think so.

On the Patriots players' first day back to work after three days off, Brady was nowhere to be found - at least during the periods when reporters had access to the locker room and practice field, which was perfectly choreographed.

Giants Notes: Guarded Optimism

A Couple of Friendly Enemies

Brady was more visible on the streets of Manhattan squiring his supermodel girlfriend Gisele Bundchen around early this week than he was at the team's practice facility yesterday at Gillette Stadium.

He was a no-show in the locker room during the period it was opened to reporters, and Patriots' officials said he would not be available for interviews.

And then, about an hour later, he was a no-show on the practice field during the short window during which the media is permitted to attend.

A ruse?

Absolutely.

A mind game from Bill Belichick?

Bet on it.

Plax: Pats Don't Have Best Wide Receivers

Don't Bet Against Them

The Giants, however, are unlikely to fall for this banana-in-the-tailpipe trick.

In fact, listening to some of Brady's teammates yesterday, you got the distinct impression that there isn't a significant amount of concern about Brady's health.

Several players, in fact, were amused by the attention L'Affaire Brady has attracted, and none seemed concerned that their record-shattering MVP leader would be affected in the least come Super Bowl XLII.

"I mean, it was a walking boot, wasn't it?" Patriots defensive end Richard Seymour said, referring to the photos published in The Post this week of Brady wearing a protective boot on his right foot to protect what is believed to be a mild high ankle sprain. "The New York media wanted to make more out of it than it was. New York, New York, what can you say?

"Every channel I turned to, there it was," Seymour added. "The funny part - the good part - was the flowers (Brady was carrying to Bundchen's West Village apartment). I was (focused) on the flowers, not on the boot. I went and got my wife flowers after seeing that.

"Obviously, Tom can speak for himself (though he chose not to yesterday), but I don't foresee him not being in this game."

Nor do any of Brady's other teammates.

"He's fine. Tommy's the least of my worries. I'm going to put on a boot and see if you guys follow me around," Patriots fullback Heath Evans said.

"He's going to play, man, don't even worry about it," Patriots veteran running back Kevin Faulk said. "If the game would have been today (yesterday) he was going to play. If the game would have been on Monday or Tuesday or whenever the report (from New York) was, he was going to play. Tom is going to be all right and that's it. Simple as that. No more Tom questions, please."

Tough Mann Contest

Strahan, Captain Clutch an Inspiration

Unfortunately for the Patriots players, who were besieged with the Brady questions yesterday, the team's handling of it - purposely creating a shroud of mystery - has perpetuated the mini-hysteria.

Belichick, for example, appeared almost giddy (for him) when he began fielding questions about his quarterback.

"I don't have any comment on it," he said initially.

When asked if Brady would practice, Belichick said, "We'll go out there . . . I don't know."

A moment later, he smirked, "The injury report will be out next Wednesday and we're excited to get that to you. (It'll be) filled out completely and I can't wait to get that to you, because I know you're anxious for it."

Of course, on cue from Belichick, Patriots officials declined to say whether Brady participated in any part of the practice session.

The Patriots will conduct another practice today and players who choose to make themselves available will be speak to reporters again.

All eyes, of course, will be in search of Brady. Let the games continue.

Source: New York Post

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Bootless Brady looks fine at Super arrival

Patriots QB acknowledges injury, but says he'll be fine

The Associated Press
updated 6:54 p.m. PT, Sun., Jan. 27, 2008

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. - Relax, Patriots fans. A smiling Tom Brady says not to worry about his much publicized and photographed ankle. It won’t keep him out of Sunday’s Super Bowl.

New England’s star quarterback walked up the three short steps to the podium with ease Sunday night, showing no signs of the right ankle injury that had become such a hot topic since he was spotted wearing a protective boot last Monday.

“It’s feeling good. I’ll be ready to go,” Brady said as the AFC champions met the media for the first time shortly after arriving in Phoenix.

It was also the first time Brady acknowledged he was injured in the AFC championship game.

“It was in the San Diego game, I think in the third quarter,” Brady said, referring to the Patriots’ 21-12 victory last Sunday.

Brady hasn’t practiced since, but said he moved a little bit during the week and “shuffled around.”

“I’m not concerned about how it’s going to affect my play,” he said. “This won’t keep me out.”

The face of New England’s franchise reportedly has a minor high ankle sprain. He wore a protective boot on his right foot last Monday in New York while visiting supermodel girlfriend Gisele Bundchen, causing a major stir and concern among Patriots fans.

“I was just trying to get into the house as fast as I could,” Brady said. “I was trying to hobble along. It kind of caught me off guard.”

New England will try to become the first team in NFL history to finish 19-0 when it plays the New York Giants in the Super Bowl next Sunday.

After returning to Foxborough on Wednesday, Brady wasn’t spotted by the media the next two days while reporters were allowed into the locker room and at practice.

“I was glad to be back in New England and in the insulated atmosphere of our locker room,” he said.

It sure wasn’t safe on the streets of New York for Brady.

“Yeah, it’s been an interesting week,” he said. “I’m much lighter on my toes than I thought.”

Brady also issued a playful warning: “Don’t any of you chase me around. I won’t be nearly as nice as I was last week.”

That was when he was followed by paparazzi as he exited a taxi in New York, with a handful of flowers for his girlfriend. Later that day and on Tuesday, he wasn’t wearing the boot when photographed.

“It’s just part of the world we’re living in,” he said. “Those places I went for refuge, I guess I can’t go anymore. If we were 0-16, nobody would (care).”

Coach Bill Belichick, who spoke before Brady, wouldn’t address the injury or Brady’s status.

“We’ll update our injury report on Wednesday,” Belichick said with a smirk. “And, I look forward to it, too.”

When Brady was asked, he grinned and said, “How’s the ankle? What did Coach say?”

The reporter responded with: “He said ask you.”

Brady laughed and shook his head.

“Did he?” he said. “Wow, that’s different.”

Brady, who stood at the podium in a navy, pinstriped suit, with a navy vest and his white shirt open at the collar, smiled throughout the news conference and was in a playful mood. When asked about the ankle once again, he interrupted the reporter and said, “Last question of the week.”

He then went through the details one more time and closed with, “Good? That work?”

Earlier Sunday, Brady appeared in front of reporters and photographers in Foxborough for the first time since the game against the Chargers. At a departure rally shortly before the team buses left for their trip to Phoenix, he walked without slipping on a light dusting of snow on the Gillette Stadium field as flurries fell.

“Now this is Foxborough faithful right here,” Brady told the cheering crowd of about 15,000 after he reached the podium at midfield along the Patriots sideline. “We can just go ahead and play the game today. Thank you guys for coming out.”

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**pm530** · 02-03-2008, 04:57 AM

NFL
Notes, Miscellaneous

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Vegas - the Only Place Patriots Don't Win
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Although the rest of the sporting world may look at the Patriots as being one win away from completing a perfect season, Las Vegas views them through a much different prism.

To the oddsmakers on the Strip, the 18-0 Patriots are really 10-8.

"As far as the pointspread goes, that's correct," said Chuck Esposito, director of the race and sports book at Caesars Palace, where the Patriots were installed last week as 14-point favorites over the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII Sunday.

"Granted, it's a lot of points," Esposito said, "but we looked for a number that would draw good two-way action [an equal number of bets on both teams]. We're not predicting who is going to win or lose, but it's a pointspread that we feel is going to draw good two-way action."

Since its initial release, however, the pointspread has gone down to 121/2, which, oddsmakers say, is not so much a reflection of the recent news about quarterback Tom Brady's right ankle sprain as it is of the Patriots' 2-7 record against the spread in their past nine games.

"[Brady] would probably affect the line more than anybody in the NFL; maybe Peyton Manning could rival him," said Tony Sinisi, odds director at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. "But it might be a 10-point drop if it went from Tom Brady to Matt Cassel. It would probably go down to New England 3. But there's not any feeling out there that Brady won't play."

Before news broke about Brady's ankle, "I think the betting public was looking for value and felt that, at 13 or 14, there was just too good a value on the Giants," Esposito said. "They have covered nine out of 10 road games and have won 10 straight road games and covered all three playoff games."

It has prompted many bettors to take the Giants and the points.

"We opened the Super Bowl line at 14 and it quickly moved from 14 to 131/2, and ever since then, it's been dropping little by little," said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the race and sports book at the Las Vegas Hilton, who estimated that 70 percent of the early action has been on the Giants.

"It's a little odd, because the favorite in the Super Bowl is always inflated and in this case, it's no different. This is one line that we make that's geared toward the general public, because the general public's money always dominates the action in the Super Bowl. When we put that line out, we expected a little bit more support on the Patriots and we haven't seen that yet, but we're hoping it comes out later."

At the beginning of the season, the Patriots were a sure bet after they trampled not only their opposition en route to an 8-0 start, but the Vegas sports books as well, beating the spread in those wins. Their perfect record (against the spread, that is) was blemished when they failed to cover as a 5-point favorite in a 24-20 triumph at Indianapolis Nov. 4.

"Actually, the Patriots all season long have been a thorn in our side," Kornegay said. "It's a team we just cannot figure out. We took it in the shorts for pretty much two-thirds of the season. The last game that we won -- one of the games that we won -- was the Eagles game [a 31-28 Patriots triumph]. That was the last game we saw this huge snowball effect of support for the Patriots.

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“Six Pack” Super Bowl notes
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Six quick, random thoughts on the Super Bowl

-- Patriots are 3-0 in Super Bowls under Belichick, but won all three games by a field goal.

-- New England is 12-point favorite; they were 12-point dog in their first Super Bowl win, against the Rams.

-- Belichick and Tom Coughlin coached together with the Giants from 1988-1990.

-- Don't forget, when Giants led New England 26-14 in the second half Dec 30, before losing 38-35, when Randy Moss got loose for some long passes in fourth quarter.

-- Eli Manning played college football in the SEC, where games against Alabama, LSU, Auburn are treated like the Super Bowl and Mardi Gras rolled into one. He'll do fine.

-- Must respect Patriots' 18-0 record, the best record ever in the NFL, to this point. Its going to take a supreme effort to beat them; they've taken everyone's best shot so far.

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Super Bowl XLII –Preview
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It's fair to say that the Super Bowl is undoubtedly the most watched sporting event of the year and is also the largest wagered event in all of sports. Super Bowl's bring both experienced and novice bettors together for this one day in the calendar year. After reading this article even the novice bettor will be wiser come Super Bowl XLII.

The Super Bowl has a number of variants that are not associated to any regular season game. Teams have two weeks of rest and time to prepare, and of course there is the neutral field. It's no longer the case as it was back in the 80's and the early years of the 90's when it was simply a matter of putting one's money down on the team from the NFC. The NFC does however hold a 21-20 SU and 20-18-3 ATS edge all time, and has covered the spread in three of the last five Super Bowls.

From a statistical view point, four key areas have more relevance to who will win than anything else. These areas are: time of possession, rushing yards, passing yards per attempt and turnovers. Let's take a look.

> Teams that have possession of the football for more than 30 minutes are 31-10 SU and 29-9-3 ATS.

> Teams who have more rushing yards are 34-7 SU and 30-8-3 ATS.

> Teams that gain more yards per pass attempt are 35-6 SU and 30-8-3 ATS.

> Teams that win the turnover battle are 38-3 SU and 32-6-3 ATS.

When any team has an advantage in at least three of the above four stats, that team is 35-1 SU and 30-5-1 ATS. On 23 occasions, one team had all four statistical edges. They have been money in the bank, recording a record of 23-0 SU and 21-1-1 ATS. That said, New England had the edge in 2005 in all four categories, yet were the only team not to cover the number.

It is often said that defense wins championships and those words still hold true more often than not. Over the last 20 years, the team that wins the Super Bowl averages just under 31 points per game. It’s not often a team wins without scoring 21 points or more. The last team to do it was Pittsburgh back in Super Bowl IX when they defeated Minnesota 16-6.

The favored team has only been lined at less than a touchdown in five of the last 22 Super Bowls. Double-digit favorites are 4-3-1 ATS since 1986, but since 1996 these large chalks are 2-2 SU (two losers being Rams in 2002 and Packers in 1998) and 0-3-1 ATS.

The last 22 Super Bowls have had an average posted total of 46.4 points.

There have been ten games played inside a dome in Super Bowl history. The average points scored in those ten games is 45.2. Posted totals have only been available over the last 22 years and during this period 14 games have gone 'Over' the total, including 9 of the last 15. Five of those six 'Unders' have occurred since the turn of the century with an Over /Under line of at least 47 points.

Super Bowl favorites have won straight up 29 times out of the previous 41 tries and have a slight edge against the number with a 21-17-3 mark. That record doesn't tell the whole picture though. Take out the dominating years by the 49'ers and the Cowboys (1985 to 1995) when the favorite covered 8 of the 11 years, including double-digit favs going a perfect 4-0 ATS, it is true to say that the underdog has certainly had its day, as since 1996, the dog is 6-3-2 ATS. As in most cases, the straight up winner usually covers the number evidenced by the fact that Super Bowl winners are 33-5-3 ATS all-time. However, two of those five non-covers came in 2004 and 2005, so beware!

Since 1999, two teams (New England in 2002 and St Louis in 1999) have sought revenge for a regular season loss against their Super Bowl opponent. In both of those games the team that lost the regular season game ended up getting revenge and winning the Super Bowl.

Some further trends that may be of some use.

> The higher playoff seed is 1-9-2 ATS in the last 12 Super Bowls.

> The team with the better record going into the game is 27-10 SU.

> If one (but not both) of the road teams win in the Conference Championship round, they are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.

> Teams that won outright as underdogs in the Conference Championship round are 10-6-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1981, including 4-0 ATS since 2002.

> If one of the teams has allowed their previous two opponents to score two touchdowns or less, the game has gone over 78% of the time.

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Exposing Super Bowl betting myths
----------------------------------------------------------------------

There are a lot of myths out there when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl.

One such myth is that only the public is playing. This is the one football game where public money does outweigh wiseguy money, but professional gamblers still get very involved.

These wiseguys get involved betting proposition wagers. One Las Vegas professional gambler said he’ll put out $100,000 on various Super Bowl props and expects to make $20,000. He said he’s never had a losing Super Bowl betting on props. His worst Super Bow was last year, he said, when the return on his investment was six percent.

Super Bowl props have become big business. Some hotels and online sportsbooks put out hundreds of them. It’s impossible for the house to put the right number on every one. There are a lot of sharps anxious to fire as soon as the props come out, which usually occurs a couple of days after the championship games.

Some places, for instance, put out a pick’em type opening number on which team would have the longest kickoff return. This isn’t a coin flip type of line, though, with a matchup of New York against New England. The Patriots are big favorites in the game so they figure to be kicking off more than the Giants.

Professional bettors usually play more underdogs than favorites during the NFL season. It’s a myth in the Super Bowl, however, that wiseguys are looking to take a plus price. It’s just the opposite, in fact, when it comes to playing props.

Bookmakers shade their prop bets knowing the public likes to play on or over rather than the negative. This way bettors can cheer and pull for a certain thing or player. Tom Brady, for instance, averaged 293 yards passing in 18 games this season counting the post-season.

Try finding that number on an ‘over/under’ prop on Brady’s passing yards for the Super Bowl. Bookmakers know the betting public wants to root for Brady so they jack his number up.

Most people assume the best value is betting a little to win a lot. That’s why they’ll take big odds on something unusual to happen such as a safety.

Wiseguys don’t follow this when it comes to the Super Bowl. They realize the best value is laying a big price to win a little such as there will not be overtime. There has yet to be an overtime game in Super Bowl history and that streak shouldn’t be in jeopardy during this matchup with New England currently a 12-point favorite.

“Don’t look for plus prices that look like even money plays,” one professional gambler said. “They’re sucker plays. The way to make money is to play the minuses. That’s the way the line has moved. That should tell you right there, which is the right side.”

Most places won’t let you parlay prop bets. But it’s a myth that it can’t be done. Sharps are able to do it, just not by conventional means.

If a wiseguy for instance likes the Patriots to cover the spread, he’ll look to play the Patriots on less marquee props such as first team to make six first downs and other obscure yardage type props.

There’s a myth that Internet books are better to play at than Las Vegas hotels. Online books certainly are convenient. They also can offer certain kinds of outlandish props that Nevada casinos can’t.

But online bookmakers also can cancel wagers they deem a mistake, without any recourse for the bettor. That’s not the case in Nevada where casino bookmakers must live with any mistakes or risk dealing with strict state regulatory agencies on player disputes.

Still another myth is that it’s near impossible to consistently middle or side Super Bowl props. It’s actually quite easy – if you have the time and resources to scour all the different books.

Just in Nevada it’s possible to find one book listing a ‘yes/no’ prop on the shortest field goal being 24 yards, while another place uses 28 yards for the shortest field goal number.

A number of places are using a prop on how many rushing attempts Laurence Maroney will have. Some books have ‘over/under’ 19 ½, while others are using ‘over/under’ 20 ½ setting up a middle if Maroney should finish with 20 rushes.

Granted you’ll have to search for these types of props, but they certainly can be worth the time and effort.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Gameday preview
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Super Bowl XLII Preview

The New England Patriots will be looking to cap an incredible season with a Super Bowl win on Sunday night when they take on the New York Giants in Glendale, Arizona.

And if you've been eager to wager on Tom Brady and company to win this matchup at University of Phoenix Stadium you've been better off waiting until late this week to place your bet. The Pats opened as two-touchdown favorites at many online sportsbooks two weeks ago, but that line has fallen to 12 points on the eve of the championship contest.

When then Giants hosted the Patriots back in Week 17 of the regular season New England had been listed as a 14.5-point road favorite, and of course they didn't come close to covering that big spread. In fact, before the Pats surged in the fourth quarter in that game it looked like they would be entering the playoffs with only a record of 15-1.

New England has had a hard time covering the spread during the postseason as well. In their opener against the Jaguars the Patriots were listed as 13.5-point home favorites, but they won by just 11 points (31-20). Against the Chargers in the AFC Championship Game the Pats were favored by 14 points, but the final result was just a 21-12 victory.

New York, on the other hand, was a road underdog in each of their first three playoff games, so they've managed to pick up against-the-spread victories in each of those contests. The Giants were 3-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first round, 7-point underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys in the second round, and 7-point underdogs versus the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago in the NFC title game.

The total for this year's Super Bowl is pegged at 54 points, which is higher than any total for any Patriots or Giants playoff game so far in 2008. New York and Tampa Bay played UNDER the 39.5-point total, while the Giants/Cowboys game was an UNDER result as well (with the total at 47.5 points). New York's only OVER result in the playoffs came against Green Bay, when the combined 43 points exceeded the 40.5-point total.

The high-flying Patriots have surprised with UNDER results in both of their games so far during the postseason. The total for the New England/Jacksonville tilt was set at 51.5 points, and the teams combined for just 51 points. That was a close call, but the 46.5-point total for the Pats/Chargers game was never approached. Back in Week 17 the total was set at 46.5 points, with New England and New York combining for 73 points.

Those who like to bet on the OVER were probably spooked by Tom Brady's tender ankle, with every site on the internet posting pictures of him in various stages of hobble throughout the country. However, there is no mention of a sprained ankle for Brady on the Pats' official Super Bowl injury report - he's listed as PROBABLE with a sore right shoulder (as he is almost every week). No other Patriots player was listed on the report.

The surprise on the Giants' injury report this week was wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who missed some practice time with ankle and knee ailments. Burress was spotted warming up and doing drills on Friday, but he's officially listed as QUESTIONABLE for Sunday. Three other New York players were listed as PROBABLE for the Super Bowl: CB Kevin Dockery (hip flexor), G Rich Seubert (knee), and DE Osi Umenyiora (thigh).

Kickoff for Super Bowl XLII is set for around 6:15pm ET on FOX on Sunday night. And those viewers who don't get enough of crotchety Bill Belichick during the telecast can stick around after the game is finished - FOX will be showing a special episode of their medical series featuring crotchety Dr. House. That show is slated to start around 10:15.

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**pm530** · 02-03-2008, 04:59 AM

National Basketball Association – Write up

NBA
Write-up

Sunday, February 3

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Today's NBA analysis

Hot Teams
-- Lakers are 9-4 vs spread in last thirteen road games.
-- Mavericks won four of their last five games. Pistons won last four games, by 8-8-6-1 point.

Cold Teams
-- Wizards lost four of last six games, are expecting Butler to be back in lineup against his former team.

Previous meetings this season
-- Pistons (+2) lost 102-86 at Dallas Jan 9.

Totals
-- Six of last nine Washington games went over the total.
-- Last three Dallas games stayed under the total.

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**pm530** · 02-03-2008, 04:59 AM

National Basketball Association - Tips & Trends

NBA

Sunday, February 3

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Tips and Trends
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Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards (NBA | 12 PM ET)

The new Los Angeles Laker Pau Gasol may have made this Lakers team one of the elite in the powerful Western Conference. The former All-Star forward could make his Lakers debut in this game. Gasol is set to have a physical this weekend, and when he does join the lineup he will make the trio of Lamar Odom and Kobe Bryant a very formable one. Head coach Phil Jackson said “We would love to have him for Sunday’s game.” EDGE: LAKERS
The Lakers are fresh off a spirited 121-101 win at Toronto on Friday after the trade was announced. Kobe Bryant had 46 points that night, and called the trade a “a great step”. Bryant is averaging 39 ppg in his last four contests versus the Wizards. BIG EDGE: LAKERS
The Washington Wizards lost 96-87 to Utah on Friday and suffered their fourth defeat in six games. All-Star forward Caron Butler missed his third consecutive game with a hip injury, but could return for this game (Check status on the Pregame Wire!). The Wizards are averaging 99 ppg, and the Lakers defense is allowing 102 ppg over their last five. EDGE: WIZARDS
Lakers are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
Wizards are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against the Pacific Division.
The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons (ABC | 2:30 PM ET)

Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games.
Pistons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
The UNDER is 12-2 in the Pistons last 14 games against the Southwest Division.

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**pm530** · 02-03-2008, 05:00 AM

College Basketball – Long Sheet

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 3

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NORTHWESTERN (7 - 11) at INDIANA (17 - 3) - 2/3/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHWESTERN is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games in February games since 1997.
INDIANA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NORTHWESTERN is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 2-0 straight up against NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WAKE FOREST (13 - 6) at NC STATE (13 - 7) - 2/3/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WAKE FOREST is 128-166 ATS (-54.6 Units) in all games since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 128-166 ATS (-54.6 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 101-144 ATS (-57.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 60-89 ATS (-37.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
NC STATE is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
NC STATE is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in all games this season.
NC STATE is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
NC STATE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NC STATE is 3-2 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
NC STATE is 3-2 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GEORGE WASHINGTON (5 - 11) at TEMPLE (10 - 9) - 2/3/2008, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGE WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGE WASHINGTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGE WASHINGTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games in February games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGE WASHINGTON is 2-1 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
GEORGE WASHINGTON is 2-1 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WISCONSIN (17 - 3) at MINNESOTA (13 - 6) - 2/3/2008, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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N CAROLINA (20 - 1) at FLORIDA ST (13 - 9) - 2/3/2008, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games this season.
N CAROLINA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
N CAROLINA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
N CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
N CAROLINA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
FLORIDA ST is 6-13 ATS (-8.3 Units) in all games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 6-13 ATS (-8.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 3-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 3-0 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FAIRFIELD (7 - 14) at NIAGARA (13 - 6) - 2/3/2008, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NIAGARA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
NIAGARA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
NIAGARA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NIAGARA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NIAGARA is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
NIAGARA is 3-3 against the spread versus FAIRFIELD over the last 3 seasons
NIAGARA is 4-2 straight up against FAIRFIELD over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOYOLA-MD (12 - 10) at CANISIUS (4 - 17) - 2/3/2008, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CANISIUS is 3-2 against the spread versus LOYOLA-MD over the last 3 seasons
LOYOLA-MD is 4-1 straight up against CANISIUS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MANHATTAN (8 - 13) at ST PETERS (4 - 17) - 2/3/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST PETERS is 3-3 against the spread versus MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons
MANHATTAN is 5-1 straight up against ST PETERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MONTANA (9 - 12) at E WASHINGTON (8 - 15) - 2/3/2008, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTANA is 4-2 against the spread versus E WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTANA is 5-1 straight up against E WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**pm530** · 02-03-2008, 05:01 AM

College Basketball – Write up

NCAAB
Write-up

Sunday, February 3

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Sunday's College Basketball

Game of the Day

Wisconsin is 7-1 in Big 11, 2-0 as road favorite, winning by 16 at Michigan, by 25 at Penn State, losing at Purdue; no one has scored more than 61 points against them in Big 11. Minnesota is 3-4 in Big 11, losing last two home games, 65-60 vs Indiana, 78-73 to Michigan State- they lost three of last four overall.

Rest of the Card

-- NC State is 1-4-1 vs spread in its ACC games, splitting pair at home; three of their last four games were decided by three pts or less. Wake Forest is 0-3 on ACC road, 2-1 as road dog, with a 112-73 loss at BC following by losses of 7-5ot points.

-- Northwestern is 0-7 in Big 11, 2-2 as road dog, losing on road by 19-11-12-33 points; they shot 29.8% from arc last five games they ain't beating anyone when they shoot 30%. Indiana lost last two games; they're 1-2 as Big 11 home favorite.

-- North Carolina's next game is against Duke, so they have to avoid letdown here, vs Florida State team that lost five of last six games, losing at home by 13 to Duke, by 3 to NC State club that Heels beat by 31. UNC is 1-2 as road favorite in ACC tilts.

-- George Washington lost last five games since beating Saint Louis 49-20 in A-14 opener; they covered three of last four, are 1-2 as road dog, losing away games by 13-11-25 pts. Temple is improved, winning three of last four games.

-- Loyola's game Friday was postponed, so they're little more rested for this than normal; Greyhounds won seven of the last eight games, covering last four in MAAC. Canisius made 14-23 from arc in upset win vs Fairfield Friday; they're 2-9 in MAAC.

-- Fairfield lost by 28 at 2-9 Canisius Friday, their fifth loss in last seven games. Stags (even) lost 73-61 at home to Niagara last Sunday- they lost last three road games by 7-15-28, after winning their first three MAAC road games of season.

-- St Peter's lost last eight games, Manhattan lost last six; this isn't good game to invest in. Peacocks (+5) lost 65-62 in league opener at Manhattan Dec 7 (Jaspers won despite being 3-12 at foul line). Manhattan lost five of six MAAC road games.

-- Eastern Washington lost five of last six games, losing 80-61 at Montana ten days ago, in game Griz shot 61.4% from floor, outrebounded Eastern by 20. Montana won last three on road, but are 2-3 in last five overall, losing all three games by hoop.

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**pm530** · 02-03-2008, 05:02 AM

College Basketball - Tips & Trends

NCAAB

Sunday, February 3

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Tips and Trends
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#4 North Carolina at Florida State (FSN | 2 PM ET)

North Carolina is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games overall.
Florida State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games overall.
The UNDER is 13-4 in Florida State’s last 17 games against the Atlantic Coast.

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**pm530** · 02-03-2008, 05:03 AM

National Hockey League – Write up

NHL
Write-up

Sunday, February 3

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Today's NHL analysis

Hot Teams
-- Canadiens won six of their last eight games. Rangers are 4-1 in their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- None

Series Records
-- Rangers won three in row, five of last six vs Montreal.

Totals
-- Six of last nine Montreal games stayed under the total.

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**Udog** · 02-03-2008, 08:53 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 3

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LA LAKERS (29 - 16) at WASHINGTON (24 - 21) - 2/3/2008, 12:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (31 - 14) at DETROIT (33 - 13) - 2/3/2008, 2:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 196-149 ATS (+32.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 185-130 ATS (+42.0 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
DALLAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 02-03-2008, 09:08 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 3

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NY RANGERS (26-22-0-6, 58 pts.) at MONTREAL (28-15-0-9, 65 pts.) - 2/3/2008, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 26-28 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 2-7 ATS (-8.4 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 6-4 (+2.1 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 6-4-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

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**Udog** · 02-03-2008, 09:22 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Fairfield at Niagara
The Stags are coming off a 28-point loss at lower-rated Canisius (88-60) for their fifth setback in seven games. Fairfield stays on the road today against a Niagara team that beat the Stags by 12 (73-61) at their place last week and has won two straight. The Purple Eagles are the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has Niagara favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-11). Here are all of today's games.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 4

Game 505-506: Northwestern at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 53.520; Indiana 73.966
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-18 1/2)

Game 507-508: Wake Forest at NC State
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 62.189; NC State 63.006
Dunkel Line: NC State by 1
Vegas Line: NC State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+4 1/2)

Game 509-510: George Washington at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 53.198; Temple 68.036
Dunkel Line: Temple by 15
Vegas Line: Temple by 11
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-11)

Game 511-512: Wisconsin at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 71.765; Minnesota 68.706
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 3
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-1 1/2)

Game 513-514: North Carolina at Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 78.321; Florida State 63.580
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 15
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-10 1/2)

Game 515-516: Fairfield at Niagara
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 42.641; Niagara 57.649
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 15
Vegas Line: Niagara by 11
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-11)

Game 517-518: Loyola-MD at Canisius
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 57.454; Canisius 45.424
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 12
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-10 1/2)

Game 519-520: Manhattan at St. Peters
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 46.303; St. Peter's 46.917
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+1 1/2)

Game 521-522: Montana at Eastern Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 52.665; Eastern Washington 51.330
Dunkel Line: Montana by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana by 4
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+4)

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