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Ncaa Football 9/25-9/27......
These are my plays for this weekend. I'll bump this up daily.
Thursday, September 25, 2003
1 STAR: Nebraska (-9.5) OVER SOUTHERN MISS
I usually like to side with the home dog on Thursday nights, but I don't think they can get it done this time. The Huskers are going to pound the ball on the ground, and I don't think Southern Miss will be able to with stand the ground attack throughout the entire game. The Golden Eagles allowed Memphis to rush for 205 yards and now they face the Cornhuskers that average 293 yards rushing per game. Southern Miss is only 1-5 against the spread after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons, 1-7 against the spread in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons, 1-7 against the spread as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 1-5 against the spread after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Southern Miss has been a home dog just twice in the last five years, losing both games straight up and against the spread and they are 0-9-1 against the spread versus winning teams off of a straight up win. The Huskers are a small play here.
Saturday, September 27, 2003
5 STAR: Cincinnati (+7) OVER MIAMI-OHIO
In a match up of two very good teams I have to take the generous points with the Bearcats. Cincinnati and quarterback Gino Guidugli are unbeaten at 3-0 after last week's triple overtime win over Temple and they will be seeking revenge for last seasons home loss against Miami-Ohio. Cincinnati is 8-2 against the spread in their last ten revenge games and the Bearcats are on a 7-1 run against the spread on the road. Miami-Ohio and Ben Roethlisberger are 2-1 after a huge 41-21 win at Colorado St last week, but they are only 9-26 straight up against non conference opponents that have a winning record. This is the Redhawks first home game of the season where they are only 3-6 against the spread in their last nine games as the host. This should be a game that goes down to the wire, and the Bearcats have the talent to win here straight up. The Bearcats are 12-4 against the spread when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% since 1992, 9-2 against the spread as an underdog over the last three seasons and 5-1 against the spread in road games after a home win over the last three seasons. Miami-Ohio is only 1-5 against the spread in home games after covering the spread in two out of their last three games over the last three seasons. Take the points here!
3 STAR: MICHIGAN STATE (+7) OVER Iowa
Both of these teams come in off of big wins last week. Iowa handled Arizona State at home, while Michigan State won on the road at Notre Dame. The Spartans are 15-4 against the spread after a road win since 1992. The underdog in this series is 6-3 against the spread in the last nine meetings, the Spartans are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight games as a home underdog and they are 11-2 against the spread as an underdog of 4 points or more in Big 10 conference games. Iowa has played very well so far this season, but they are a young team and this is only their second road game of the year. They also find themselves as a road favorite in a place where they have lost three out of the last four meetings. The Hawkeyes offense and their young offensive line will get a true test this week by a Michigan State defense that has 15 sacks and is only allowing 42 yards rushing per game at a rate if 1.4 yards per carry. The Hawkeyes usually don't fare well against good run stopping defenses. Iowa is only 2-8 against the spread versus strong rushing defenses that are allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry since 1992. The home dog is the play here!
3 STAR: Connecticut (+22) OVER VIRGINIA TECH
This is too many points to lay against a quality UCONN team. Connecticut is 7-1 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their last eight games and were competitive in their loss last week to Boston College. Since reaching the Division 1A level in 2000, the Huskies are 12-5 against the spread as a double digit underdog and they are 13-3 against the spread in all games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Playing on the road also does not seem to bother UCONN as they are 13-1 against the spread in road games over the last 3 seasons. I also think the Hokies might be taking this game a little lightly, considering that the last time they played them in 2000 they beat the Huskies 52-10, but this is a much improved UCONN team. Take the points!
2 STAR: Notre Dame (+10) OVER PURDUE
The Irish have looked terrible this season, but I look for them to keep this one close. Both of these teams play solid defense so points should be at a premium here. The Irish are 6-0 against the spread in road games after having lost two out of their last three games since 1992 and 11-3 against the spread in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% to 75% since 1992. Purdue is only 1-5 against the spread versus terrible offensive teams that are averaging 285 or less total yards per game since 1992, 1-5 against the spread in non-conference home games over the last 3 seasons and 2-8 against the spread after a win by 35 or more points since 1992. The Irish are the play here!
2 STAR: Temple (+14.5) OVER LOUISVILLE
The Temple Owls come into Louisville at 0-3, but this is a very scrappy, hard nosed team that does not quite. The Owls gave Cincinnati all that they could handle before losing in triple overtime last week, and they should keep this one close against the Cardinals here. Temple has done very well on the road as a heavy underdog, they are currently on a 11-3 run against the spread as a double digit road underdog. Also, the Owls are is 7-1 against the spread in road games after two or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992 The Cardinals have been playing well and are 3-0 on the season, but with last weeks loss against the spread at home to UTEP, they are only 3-6 against the spread in their last nine home games and the Cardinals are 2-8 against the spread as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992. Look for Temple to keep this one close!
1 STAR: NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-6.5) OVER Iowa State
After their biggest win in the history of the school last week at Alabama, some might expect a letdown here, but I don't see it happening. Northern Illinois can take yet another huge step towards national respect by beating another BCS conference school when they host Iowa State. The Huskies have now won 10 of their last 11 games against the spread and are on an 8-2 run against the spread in non-conference play. Northern Illinois is 5-1 against the spread after an upset win as an underdog since 1992, 21-8 against the spread in the first half of the season since 1992 and 6-1 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. The Huskies will get it done here again!
1 STAR: Texas Tech (+2.5) OVER MISSISSIPPI
This game should be a real shootout, but I look for the Red Raider to come away with the win. I have not been impressed with the Rebels at all this season, and Texas Tech and quarterback BJ Symons, who passed for 586 yards against NC State last week, should have a very big day against the Ole Miss pass defense that allowed 389 yards against Memphis. Ole Miss will put up some points against Tech as well, but I think the Tech defense will be able to make more stops than the Rebels defense. The numbers don't support the Rebels winning a shootout. The Red Raiders are 16-2 against the spread when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and they are 10-1 against the spread when they gain 400 or more net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Mississippi is 2-9 against the spread when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and 4-16 against the spread when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Texas Tech is also 29-5 against the spread after a straight up loss.
Tech wins this one!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-2 (-1.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 7-6 (+1.2 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 6-2 (+7.6 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 5-1 (+3.9 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 20-11 (+11.7 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $1170.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
Thursday, September 25, 2003
1 STAR: Nebraska (-9.5) OVER SOUTHERN MISS
I usually like to side with the home dog on Thursday nights, but I don't think they can get it done this time. The Huskers are going to pound the ball on the ground, and I don't think Southern Miss will be able to with stand the ground attack throughout the entire game. The Golden Eagles allowed Memphis to rush for 205 yards and now they face the Cornhuskers that average 293 yards rushing per game. Southern Miss is only 1-5 against the spread after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons, 1-7 against the spread in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons, 1-7 against the spread as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 1-5 against the spread after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Southern Miss has been a home dog just twice in the last five years, losing both games straight up and against the spread and they are 0-9-1 against the spread versus winning teams off of a straight up win. The Huskers are a small play here.
Saturday, September 27, 2003
5 STAR: Cincinnati (+7) OVER MIAMI-OHIO
In a match up of two very good teams I have to take the generous points with the Bearcats. Cincinnati and quarterback Gino Guidugli are unbeaten at 3-0 after last week's triple overtime win over Temple and they will be seeking revenge for last seasons home loss against Miami-Ohio. Cincinnati is 8-2 against the spread in their last ten revenge games and the Bearcats are on a 7-1 run against the spread on the road. Miami-Ohio and Ben Roethlisberger are 2-1 after a huge 41-21 win at Colorado St last week, but they are only 9-26 straight up against non conference opponents that have a winning record. This is the Redhawks first home game of the season where they are only 3-6 against the spread in their last nine games as the host. This should be a game that goes down to the wire, and the Bearcats have the talent to win here straight up. The Bearcats are 12-4 against the spread when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% since 1992, 9-2 against the spread as an underdog over the last three seasons and 5-1 against the spread in road games after a home win over the last three seasons. Miami-Ohio is only 1-5 against the spread in home games after covering the spread in two out of their last three games over the last three seasons. Take the points here!
3 STAR: MICHIGAN STATE (+7) OVER Iowa
Both of these teams come in off of big wins last week. Iowa handled Arizona State at home, while Michigan State won on the road at Notre Dame. The Spartans are 15-4 against the spread after a road win since 1992. The underdog in this series is 6-3 against the spread in the last nine meetings, the Spartans are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight games as a home underdog and they are 11-2 against the spread as an underdog of 4 points or more in Big 10 conference games. Iowa has played very well so far this season, but they are a young team and this is only their second road game of the year. They also find themselves as a road favorite in a place where they have lost three out of the last four meetings. The Hawkeyes offense and their young offensive line will get a true test this week by a Michigan State defense that has 15 sacks and is only allowing 42 yards rushing per game at a rate if 1.4 yards per carry. The Hawkeyes usually don't fare well against good run stopping defenses. Iowa is only 2-8 against the spread versus strong rushing defenses that are allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry since 1992. The home dog is the play here!
3 STAR: Connecticut (+22) OVER VIRGINIA TECH
This is too many points to lay against a quality UCONN team. Connecticut is 7-1 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their last eight games and were competitive in their loss last week to Boston College. Since reaching the Division 1A level in 2000, the Huskies are 12-5 against the spread as a double digit underdog and they are 13-3 against the spread in all games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Playing on the road also does not seem to bother UCONN as they are 13-1 against the spread in road games over the last 3 seasons. I also think the Hokies might be taking this game a little lightly, considering that the last time they played them in 2000 they beat the Huskies 52-10, but this is a much improved UCONN team. Take the points!
2 STAR: Notre Dame (+10) OVER PURDUE
The Irish have looked terrible this season, but I look for them to keep this one close. Both of these teams play solid defense so points should be at a premium here. The Irish are 6-0 against the spread in road games after having lost two out of their last three games since 1992 and 11-3 against the spread in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% to 75% since 1992. Purdue is only 1-5 against the spread versus terrible offensive teams that are averaging 285 or less total yards per game since 1992, 1-5 against the spread in non-conference home games over the last 3 seasons and 2-8 against the spread after a win by 35 or more points since 1992. The Irish are the play here!
2 STAR: Temple (+14.5) OVER LOUISVILLE
The Temple Owls come into Louisville at 0-3, but this is a very scrappy, hard nosed team that does not quite. The Owls gave Cincinnati all that they could handle before losing in triple overtime last week, and they should keep this one close against the Cardinals here. Temple has done very well on the road as a heavy underdog, they are currently on a 11-3 run against the spread as a double digit road underdog. Also, the Owls are is 7-1 against the spread in road games after two or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992 The Cardinals have been playing well and are 3-0 on the season, but with last weeks loss against the spread at home to UTEP, they are only 3-6 against the spread in their last nine home games and the Cardinals are 2-8 against the spread as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992. Look for Temple to keep this one close!
1 STAR: NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-6.5) OVER Iowa State
After their biggest win in the history of the school last week at Alabama, some might expect a letdown here, but I don't see it happening. Northern Illinois can take yet another huge step towards national respect by beating another BCS conference school when they host Iowa State. The Huskies have now won 10 of their last 11 games against the spread and are on an 8-2 run against the spread in non-conference play. Northern Illinois is 5-1 against the spread after an upset win as an underdog since 1992, 21-8 against the spread in the first half of the season since 1992 and 6-1 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. The Huskies will get it done here again!
1 STAR: Texas Tech (+2.5) OVER MISSISSIPPI
This game should be a real shootout, but I look for the Red Raider to come away with the win. I have not been impressed with the Rebels at all this season, and Texas Tech and quarterback BJ Symons, who passed for 586 yards against NC State last week, should have a very big day against the Ole Miss pass defense that allowed 389 yards against Memphis. Ole Miss will put up some points against Tech as well, but I think the Tech defense will be able to make more stops than the Rebels defense. The numbers don't support the Rebels winning a shootout. The Red Raiders are 16-2 against the spread when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and they are 10-1 against the spread when they gain 400 or more net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Mississippi is 2-9 against the spread when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and 4-16 against the spread when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Texas Tech is also 29-5 against the spread after a straight up loss.
Tech wins this one!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-2 (-1.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 7-6 (+1.2 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 6-2 (+7.6 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 5-1 (+3.9 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 20-11 (+11.7 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $1170.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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