Super Bowl Discussion!!!!!!!!

[Chado1]

Super Bowl is only 6 days away....thought we could talk some football for the last time of the season....

Right now liking the Pats and over....whats everyone else thinking for the big game....props too?

[3ebRocks]

Giants and over for me.
also betting under 4.5 sacks as a prop. havent decided on any others yet.

[Chado1]

I am thinking about laying the -150 for the Pats -10.0!!!

[3ebRocks]

Looking at strictly the matchup on the field, I think the Giants stay within this number. So, I am stressing that I am not looking at other factors with line movement, public perception and things like that, just the on field matchups.

Giants scored more points on New England than any other team has this year. Also, although just two games, New England is averaging 12 points a game less in the playoffs than they did during the regular season. In fact, taking into account just the last six games of the regular season, they scored at or below their season average every game. I think taking a more recent sampling is a better way to look at this game as opposed to looking at what happened in September and October.

Also, the Giants have the defensive style and players that match up somewhat well against New England. The key is pressuring Brady without sacrificing too much or any of your coverage units. Well, the Giants have the front four that can do that. They knocked down Brady 9 times back in December and including that game up until now have 36 qb hits in the last 4 games.

Am I saying the Giants will win this game. No, I am not. Can they win? Sure, I think they can but I also do know that the Patriots should be a decent sized favorite. But I think 12.5 is too many. I anticipate a game in which the offenses play the lead role. Patriots can and will score on any team, especially with the Championship at stake. Bellichick is a genius of a coach and will install a gameplan filled with wrinkles that I anticipate will get the Patriots off to a good start. But I also think that Coughlin and Spagnuolo are solid coaches at well and will adjust as the game goes on. Offensively, I cant find a real solid arguement that tells me why the Giants wont score a considerable amount in this game. Manning is commanding the offense well and I expect him to continue. Ahmad Bradshaw is a player that didnt play the first time these two met that not only adds a change of pace to their offense, but he is turning into a good back. Analysts say he had 2nd-3rd round talent coming out of Marshall and only dropped as far as he did because of disciplinary reasons. Plaxico is tough to contain and if they put Samuel on him, which news out of Pats camp says that Samuel will play on the left regardless of the receiver, then I think a mismatch is created on the other side. Boss is catching passes out of the tightend position and the special teams has proved their worth and potential by having a 100 yard kick return first time these two teams met. All that being said, I think New England starts fast then both teams trade scores for a while and Giants come in within this inflated number.

[xstac2169]

Taking
Coin Toss Tails
Field Goals Over whatever it is - dont have a line yet

Thats it for now. Just some for fun.

[st bobby]

I am thinking Pats 31-20

[Chado1]

Looking at strictly the matchup on the field, I think the Giants stay within this number. So, I am stressing that I am not looking at other factors with line movement, public perception and things like that, just the on field matchups.

Giants scored more points on New England than any other team has this year. Also, although just two games, New England is averaging 12 points a game less in the playoffs than they did during the regular season. In fact, taking into account just the last six games of the regular season, they scored at or below their season average every game. I think taking a more recent sampling is a better way to look at this game as opposed to looking at what happened in September and October.

Also, the Giants have the defensive style and players that match up somewhat well against New England. The key is pressuring Brady without sacrificing too much or any of your coverage units. Well, the Giants have the front four that can do that. They knocked down Brady 9 times back in December and including that game up until now have 36 qb hits in the last 4 games.

Am I saying the Giants will win this game. No, I am not. Can they win? Sure, I think they can but I also do know that the Patriots should be a decent sized favorite. But I think 12.5 is too many. I anticipate a game in which the offenses play the lead role. Patriots can and will score on any team, especially with the Championship at stake. Bellichick is a genius of a coach and will install a gameplan filled with wrinkles that I anticipate will get the Patriots off to a good start. But I also think that Coughlin and Spagnuolo are solid coaches at well and will adjust as the game goes on. Offensively, I cant find a real solid arguement that tells me why the Giants wont score a considerable amount in this game. Manning is commanding the offense well and I expect him to continue. Ahmad Bradshaw is a player that didnt play the first time these two met that not only adds a change of pace to their offense, but he is turning into a good back. Analysts say he had 2nd-3rd round talent coming out of Marshall and only dropped as far as he did because of disciplinary reasons. Plaxico is tough to contain and if they put Samuel on him, which news out of Pats camp says that Samuel will play on the left regardless of the receiver, then I think a mismatch is created on the other side. Boss is catching passes out of the tightend position and the special teams has proved their worth and potential by having a 100 yard kick return first time these two teams met. All that being said, I think New England starts fast then both teams trade scores for a while and Giants come in within this inflated number.

VERY good points rocks and I do agree but I just think that the Pats want to go out as the best team in NFL history with a BANG and run up the score and possibly score 50 points in this game themselves. Also, how long until Eli goes back to the one we are used to. How long can he keep this up.

[Chado1]

Taking
Coin Toss Tails

Now that is funny right there..."literally" a coin flip...

[Kaptain]

Chado said........Also, how long until Eli goes back to the one we are used to. How long can he keep this up...............

That is the point I was trying to make the other day....4 straight flawless games, may just turn into 3-5 turnovers vs PATS.....IMO

[Chado1]

Chado said........Also, how long until Eli goes back to the one we are used to. How long can he keep this up...............

That is the point I was trying to make the other day....4 straight flawless games, may just turn into 3-5 turnovers vs PATS.....IMO

EXACTLY MY THINKING KAPT!!!

[3ebRocks]

VERY good points rocks and I do agree but I just think that the Pats want to go out as the best team in NFL history with a BANG and run up the score and possibly score 50 points in this game themselves. Also, how long until Eli goes back to the one we are used to. How long can he keep this up.

You make a solid point but I have to say that if the Patriots win this game 3-0 on a 50 yard field goal as time expires after being outgained for the game, they will still go down as the best team in NFL history, being 19-0 and setting a ton of records in the process. IMO.

As far as Eli goes, just think about the last three games and the environments in which he had to play. AT Tampa, an aging but solid defense, hostile crowd against Jeff Garcia, a Giants nemesis. Then AT Dallas. More hostile crowd. Opposite America's sweetheart Tony Romo against America's team who beat them twice. Then AT Green Bay. -3 degrees. The legend and lure of Brett Favre and Lambeau Field. And he didnt choke on it in any of those games. And Im not saying he has to outplay Brady to win or even cover this game. He doesnt. And if he did outplay Brady then trust me, Giants win outright. But I am realistic and dont believe he will outgun the MVP of the league, future hall of fame and one of the best quarterbacks of this generation. But again, dont think he has to. But I know Eli hasnt lived up to his perceived potential, but I think to assume he will fall flat when he has had ample opportunity to do so, could be a losing proposition.

[Chado1]

Another thing to consider here that I was thinkins is that the Giants were not down by more than once score in either of their previous 3 playoffs games. If the Pats get up by 2 scores (which is very possible) and put the Giants in a position in which they have not faced this postseason, they will have to steer away for the running game of Jacobs and Bradshaw and have to throw more often. So the question then becomes how will Eli handle the pressure on his shoulders in the biggest game of his life and having to come from behind?

There is no way I can take the Giants. I know Eli has continued to play out of his world and thats great but I cannot go against Billicheck coming off 2 weeks to prepare for the "exclamation game" of the best season in NFL history with Tom Brady who has won 3 SB's and has been here before vs Eli Manning....I expect him to finally choke.....put some pressure through different blitz packages on em and force him to throw off his back foot and bad passes and ducks and it spells trouble for the GMEN all around IMO....

[Spearit]

I have a tough time believing that the Pats are not the team that finds a way to win (18-0 helps me with that one.)
Do I believe this game will be a conglomeration of points by the special teams, defensive TD's and spectacular catches?- Yes.

Will Moss show up in this game? If neutralized then it will be long day. Jacksonville and SD could not get the job done in Foxboro- but we are Arizona. Brady's foot is obviously hurt and no word here imy book is that there is concern. If it is his planting foot then there may be issues. What leg was the foot light cast on?- I forgot

Will they play a position game or go to stretching the field?
Well this is interesting because the Pats barely got past them with the formula of offensive might. I don't believe this is another footrace with NE and the Giants going toe to toe. I would reassess the past game and go more clock. Nope I see this game much lower scoring and field position. The linebackers will again play a key role for NE. The O and D line for NY will again be a big factor in this game.

So I also do not believe that NE blows out the Giants. This assumption is due mainly to confidence in playing the Pats close and finding a way to persevere in the game.

Now as I commented in super bowl info:
"The underdog usually has the edge in the first quarter, as they are flying around and going full tilt from the opening kickoff. The underdog has not trailed in the last six Super Bowls. A better indication of the eventual outcome would be the halftime score. Here the team winning or tied after 30 minutes has gone on to win 21 of the last 24 Lombardi Trophies’. Additionally, these 21 winners are 15-4-2 ATS for game.

"In looking back as the 21 halftime leaders that went on to win. Playing oddsmaker based on opening line vs adjusted line for score, what I would figure is the team leading at halftime that went on to win the Super Bowl was 13-8, 61.9 percent in covering the second half spread.

New England is 1-8 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite, with the Giants 9-2 ATS away from Giants Stadium this season. It’s interesting to note only twice in the last 20 years has a team that won the Super Bowl failed to cover the ATS in the Conference Championship contest."

-My conclusion-------------
take NY for the 1st Qtr.
NE for the 2nd Qtr.
Whoever is winning the first half - take for the 2nd half.

This is in direct contrast to many beliefs so it is what it is!

[Chado1]

Another thing to consider here that I was thinkins is that the Giants were not down by more than once score in either of their previous 3 playoffs games. If the Pats get up by 2 scores (which is very possible) and put the Giants in a position in which they have not faced this postseason, they will have to steer away for the running game of Jacobs and Bradshaw and have to throw more often. So the question then becomes how will Eli handle the pressure on his shoulders in the biggest game of his life and having to come from behind?

I think this is a huge angle to consider IMO....

[aplous]

[QUOTE=Chado1]Another thing to consider here that I was thinkins is that the Giants were not down by more than once score in either of their previous 3 playoffs games. If the Pats get up by 2 scores (which is very possible) and put the Giants in a position in which they have not faced this postseason, they will have to steer away for the running game of Jacobs and Bradshaw and have to throw more often. So the question then becomes how will Eli handle the pressure on his shoulders in the biggest game of his life and having to come from behind?
QUOTE]


If the Giants were never down by more than 1 score in the playoffs, or the 1st game v. NE, why do you think they will be losing by more than 1 score on Sunday?

Eli has handled the pressure just fine on the road this year and against NE, I dont see why he wont on Sunday. It seems as though people are trying to talk themselves into betting NE.

I dont know how you could back a team that has covered just once in the last 8 games w/ these DD spreads.