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    THE HARMON FORECAST WEEK #4

    NCAA Stat Pack

    Total games predicted, 1992-2002: 26,517
    Total right: 19,823
    Total wrong: 6,537
    Ties: 157
    Forecasting percentage: .752
    Showdown of the Week
    Notre Dame
    19 Purdue
    17
    The Boilermakers are aching for revenge for three turnovers returned for TD's in a heartbreaking 24-17 loss to the Fighting Irish last year -- including two fumble returns 11 seconds apart.

    * - Home team

    Week of Sept. 27
    Major Colleges - Div. I-A
    Akron 23 *Buffalo U. 14
    *Alabama 24 Arkansas 12
    *Arizona 21 Texas Christian 20
    *Auburn 36 Western Kentucky 9
    *Boise State 34 Wyoming 8
    *Boston College 35 Ball State 7
    *Brigham Young 27 Air Force 21
    Central Florida 31 *Kent 7
    Cincinnati 22 *Miami (Ohio) 16
    *Colorado State 21 Utah 9
    Florida 28 *Kentucky 14
    Florida State 35 *Duke 13
    *Fresno State 27 Portland State 7
    Georgia Tech 21 *Vanderbilt 14
    *Hawaii 31 Rice 14
    Iowa 29 *Michigan State 10
    Iowa State 20 *Northern Illinois 17
    LSU 27 *Mississippi State 15
    *Louisville 27 Temple 13
    Marshall 20 *Troy State 10
    Maryland 42 *Eastern Michigan 7
    *Memphis 26 Arkansas State 10
    *Michigan 48 Indiana 6
    Missouri 29 *Kansas 7
    *Montana 21 Idaho 12
    Nebraska 30 *Southern Mississippi 13
    *Nevada 21 Southern Methodist 7
    *New Mexico 34 New Mexico State 7
    *North Carolina State 34 North Carolina 9
    *North Texas 26 Louisiana-Lafayette 7
    Notre Dame 19 *Purdue 17
    *Ohio 18 Western Michigan 15
    *Ohio State 42 Northwestern 9
    *Oregon State 21 Arizona State 17
    *Penn State 21 Minnesota 19
    Pittsburgh 20 *Texas A&M 14
    *Rutgers 20 Navy 19
    South Florida 32 *Army 6
    Southern California 25 *California 15
    *Syracuse 17 Toledo 14
    *Tennessee 27 South Carolina 17
    *Texas 38 Tulane 10
    Texas Tech 18 *Mississippi 14
    *Texas-El Paso 24 Sam Houston State 15
    *UCLA 29 San Diego State 13
    *Utah State 23 Louisiana-Monroe 13
    *Virginia Tech 33 Connecticut 15
    Wake Forest 20 *Virginia 12
    *Washington 26 Stanford 12
    Washington State 24 *Oregon 17
    Wisconsin 22 *Illinois 20


    Major Colleges - Div. I-AA
    Alabama A&M 32 *Prairie View A&M 6
    *Albany (N.Y.) 17 Sacred Heart 12
    Appalachian State 19 *The Citadel 14
    Arkansas-Pine Bluff 20 Kentucky State 19
    *Austin Peay 31 Kentucky Wesleyan 6
    Bethune-Cookman 28 *Norfolk State 8
    Carson-Newman 28 Florida International 7
    Central Connecticut St.16 *Siena 7
    *Colgate 24 Towson 9
    *Columbia 20 Bucknell 17
    Davidson 27 *Emory & Henry 7
    *Dayton 42 St. Peter's 6
    Delaware 21 *Hofstra 19
    Eastern Illinois 21 *Indiana State 13
    Eastern Kentucky 19 *Jacksonville State 17
    *Florida A&M 26 Delaware State 13
    *Furman 34 Gardner-Webb 9
    *Georgia Southern 44 Chattanooga 10
    Hampton 22 Morgan State 13
    *Harvard 28 Brown 13
    Holy Cross 27 *San Diego 14
    Howard 33 *Savannah State 10
    Idaho State 23 *Cal State Sacramento 14
    *Illinois State 30 Florida Atlantic 12
    Jackson State 21 *Mississippi Valley 14
    *Jacksonville 20 Valparaiso 10
    *Lafayette 21 Princeton 16
    *Massachusetts 24 James Madison 12
    *Morehead State 21 Drake 7
    Murray State 22 *Tennessee Tech 17
    *New Hampshire 23 Dartmouth 10
    *Nicholls State 33 Texas Southern 9
    North Carolina A&T 17 *Elon 14
    *Northern Arizona 25 Cal Poly S.L.O. 14
    Northwestern St. (La.) 20 *Northern Iowa 12
    Penn 27 *Lehigh 12
    *Richmond 29 Rhode Island 6
    St. Mary's (Calif.) 21 *Western Washington 20
    South Carolina State 35 Benedict 10
    Southeast Missouri St. 24 *Samford 10
    *Southern Illinois 45 St. Joseph's 7
    *Southern U. 14 Alabama State 7
    *Stephen F. Austin 31 Alcorn State 7
    *Tennessee State 30 Tennessee-Martin 10
    Tusculum 20 *Charleston Southern 7
    *Villanova 16 Northeastern 14
    *Wagner 21 Marist 10
    Western Carolina 23 *East Tennessee State 16
    *William & Mary 21 Maine 17
    *Wofford 30 Catawba 7
    *Yale 22 Cornell 7
    Youngstown State 28 *Liberty 14


    Other Games - East
    *Allegheny 17 Westminster (Pa.) 12
    *Amherst 35 Bowdoin 7
    *Brockport State 22 Frostburg State 14
    *Bryant 17 American International 16
    *California (Pa.) 42 Cheyney 6
    *Clarion 28 Kutztown 7
    East Stroudsburg 20 *Edinboro 19
    Fayetteville State 19 *Bowie State 17
    *Indiana (Pa.) 34 Millersville 7
    *Ithaca 24 St. John Fisher 12
    *LIU-C.W. Post 27 Southern Connecticut St. 9
    *Lock Haven 24 Mansfield 15
    *Lycoming 31 Albright 12
    *Merchant Marine 21 Dickinson 10
    *Middlebury 26 Colby 13
    *Moravian 42 Lebanon Valley 7
    *New Haven 31 Glenville State 8
    Rensselaer 21 *Worcester Tech 14
    *Shippensburg 27 West Chester 15
    *Slippery Rock 24 Bloomsburg 17
    Springfield 33 *Coast Guard 8
    Susquehanna 28 *Delaware Valley 14
    *Trinity (Conn.) 21 Williams 20
    *Washington & Jefferson28 Thiel 12
    *Waynesburg 22 Alfred 9
    Wesleyan (Conn.) 23 *Hamilton 7
    Wilkes 29 *FDU-Florham 14
    Other Games - Midwest
    Adams State 20 *Fort Hays State 19
    Alma 35 *Defiance 10
    *Augustana (Ill.) 24 Wisconsin-Platteville 7
    *Baldwin-Wallace 50 Heidelberg 6
    Benedictine (Ill.) 14 *Greenville 7
    *Benedictine (Kan.) 21 Evangel 14
    Bethany (Kan.) 20 *McPherson 13
    *Capital 35 Marietta 7
    Central (Iowa) 26 *Loras 13
    Central Methodist 21 *Lindenwood 12
    *Central Missouri State 36 Missouri Southern State 6
    *Chadron State 31 Colorado Mines 7
    *Emporia State 19 Missouri Western State 17
    Ferris State 17 *Wayne State (Mich.) 13
    Grand Valley State 34 *Hillsdale 8
    *Hastings 29 Dakota Wesleyan 12
    *John Carroll 20 Ohio Northern 7
    Kansas Wesleyan 33 *Sterling 7
    Macalester 30 Kenyon 6
    Mid-America Nazarene 30 *Baker 13
    *Midland Lutheran 22 Morningside 16
    *Millikin 24 Anderson 12
    Missouri Valley 17 *Culver-Stockton 16
    Mount Union 44 *Muskingum 7
    Nebraska-Omaha 20 *South Dakota 16
    *North Dakota 21 Augustana (S.D.) 9
    *Northern Michigan 21 Indianapolis 19
    Northwest Missouri St. 47 *Missouri-Rolla 6
    *Northwestern (Iowa) 17 Nebraska Wesleyan 14
    *Northwood 28 Mercyhurst 7
    Olivet (Mich.) 27 *Manchester 7
    Ottawa 14 *St. Mary (Kan.) 13
    Pittsburg State 29 *Southwest Baptist 8
    *Saginaw Valley State 42 Ashland 7
    South Dakota State 23 *North Dakota State 17
    *Southern Nazarene 18 Langston 14
    *Southwestern (Kan.) 20 Friends 10
    St. Cloud State 31 *Minnesota-Mankato 14
    *Taylor 28 Iowa Wesleyan 12
    Truman State 21 *Washburn 16
    Walsh 33 St. Francis (Ill.) 10
    *Wheaton 40 Hope 7
    William Jewell 38 *Graceland 12
    *Wittenberg 34 Thomas More 9
    Other Games - South & Southwest
    Albany State (Ga.) 29 *Lane 7
    Bridgewater (Va.) 30 *Christopher Newport 7
    Central Arkansas 20 *Ouachita Baptist 14
    Central Oklahoma 22 *Texas A&M-Commerce 13
    Concord 24 Charleston 13
    Delta State 20 *West Alabama 10
    Fort Valley State 29 Clark Atlanta 6
    *Georgetown (Ky.) 52 Union (Ky.) 7
    Hampden-Sydney 26 *Guilford 13
    *Harding 29 Arkansas Tech 13
    *Henderson State 17 West Georgia 14
    Livingstone 20 *Elizabeth City State 19
    *Mars Hill 19 Miles 14
    Mississippi College 21 *Sul Ross State 14
    Morehouse 26 *Johnson Smith 10
    *North Alabama 27 Arkansas-Monticello 9
    *Rhodes 23 Pomona-Pitzer 17
    Sewanee 20 *Maryville (Tenn.) 7
    Southwestern Oklahoma21 *Angelo State 17
    Stillman 29 Newberry 10
    Texas A&M-Kingsville 21 *Tarleton State 20
    Valdosta State 26 *Southern Arkansas 17
    *Virginia State 27 North Carolina Central 14
    *Virginia Union 17 Winston-Salem 12
    *Washington & Lee 18 Centre 15
    Other Games - Far West
    *Azusa Pacific 34 Cal Lutheran 7
    *Claremont-M-S 36 Colorado College 10
    *Eastern New Mexico 20 East Central Oklahoma 17
    *Lewis & Clark 29 Puget Sound 12
    Nebraska-Kearney 42 *New Mexico Highlands 7
    Occidental 19 *Whittier 17
    Redlands 27 *Chapman 10
    Southern Oregon 19 *Humboldt State 14
    *Western Oregon 22 Mesa State 14
    *Western State 25 Fort Lewis 7
    Willamette 21 *Menlo 14

  • #2
    SUNSHINE FORECAST HISTORICAL TRENDS

    Sides: September 27, 2003
    Arizona State at Oregon State
    Take Oregon State
    Domination by home team (5-1, 83% )

    Arkansas at Alabama
    Take Underdog
    Domination by underdog (6-2, 75% )

    Florida at Kentucky
    Take Favorite
    Domination by favorite at Kentucky (4-0, 100% )
    Take Florida
    Domination on the road by Florida (4-0, 100% )

    Louisiana State at Mississippi State
    Take Louisiana State
    Domination by Louisiana State (7-1, 88% )
    Domination on the road by Louisiana State (4-0, 100% )
    Minnesota at Penn State
    Take Minnesota
    Domination by Minnesota (4-0, 100% )
    Northwestern at Ohio State
    Take Ohio State
    Domination by home team (4-0, 100% )

    Notre Dame at Purdue
    Take Underdog
    Domination by underdog at Purdue (3-0-1, 100% )
    Rice at Hawaii
    Take Rice
    Domination by Rice (4-0, 100% )

    Stanford at Washington
    Take Washington
    Domination at home by Washington (3-0, 100% )
    Utah at Colorado State
    Take Colorado State
    Domination by Colorado State (5-0, 100% )


    Wake Forest at Virginia
    Take Wake Forest
    Domination by visiting team (6-1-1, 86% )
    Washington State at Oregon
    Take Favorite
    Domination by favorite at Oregon (3-0, 100% )


    Wisconsin at Illinois
    Take Favorite
    Domination by favorite at Illinois (3-0, 100% )

    Comment


    • #3
      NFL TECHNICIAN'S CORNER



      KANSAS CITY at BALTIMORE...Ravens 45-22-2 last 69 games on board! Billick 21-8-2 vs. line as dog since '99. Chiefs "over" 16-8 as visitor since '00. Tech edge-Ravens and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

      TENNESSEE at PITTSBURGH...6 of last 7 in series have gone "over." Steel "over" 20-7 last 27 on board. Steel has covered 5 of last 6 meetings. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Steel, based on recent "totals" and series trends.

      SAN FRANCISCO at MINNESOTA...Tice "over" 12-7 as Viking HC. Tech edge-slight to "over," based on Tice "totals" trend.

      ATLANTA at CAROLINA...Falcons 5-0-1 vs. line last 6 in series, 8-1-1 last 10 meetings. Atlanta also 8-3 vs. line last 11 as visitor overall. Tech edge-Falcons, based on series trends.

      JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON...Texans covered both meetings LY. Tech edge-slight to Texans, based on team trends.

      SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND...Road team 10-4 last 14 in series, Raiders 2-5 vs. line last 7 as series host. Tech edge-slight to Chargers, based on series trneds.

      DETROIT at DENVER...Lions 2-8 vs. line last 10 as visitor, also "over" 8-2 last 10 away. Mariucci teams 15-30-1 vs. line last 46 away. Broncos 11-6 vs. spread last 17 as host. Tech edge-Broncos and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

      GREEN BAY at CHICAGO (Monday, September 29)...Pack has won and covered last 5 and 6 of last 7 in series. Bears now on a 5-14 spread run last 19 on board. Tech edge-Packers, based on series trends.

      Comment


      • #4
        POINTWISE COLLEGIATE & PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY

        COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
        1* MIAMI-OHIO over Cincinnati
        1* OREGON STATE over Arizona State
        2* SO CALIFORNIA over California
        3* SOUTH CAROLINA over Tennessee
        3* IOWA over Michigan State
        4* UTAH over Colorado State
        5* MICHIGAN over Indiana
        5* KANSAS over Missouri

        NFL KEY RELEASES
        3* MINNESOTA over San Francisco
        4* PITTSBURGH over Tennessee
        4* DALLAS over New York Jets
        4* CLEVELAND over Cincinnati
        5* PHILADELPHIA over Buffalo

        Summary of Top Rated College Selections

        MIAMI-OHIO 38 - Cincinnati 17 - (3:00) - Miami has come back with vengeance after opening day flop. Superb rush "D" has held NW & ColoSt to 1.5 & 1.3 ypr past 2 wks, & Roethlisberger has been brilliant. Cincy in off luckout win vs Temple, & note Bearcat RYs going from 361 to 165 to 136. It has to be 'Hawks

        OREGON STATE 31 - Arizona State 17- (4:00) - Reports of Beav RB Jackson's demise were premature (122 RYs vs Boise). Also check QB Anderson's 408 PYs & WR Newson's 208 receiving yds. Balanced, & catching Devils seeking answers is perfect situation for advancing series home trend. Solid revenger.

        TENNESSEE 27 - South Carolina 20 - (7:00) - Loved Gamecocks' 42-0 rout of Uab. Led 28-0 at halftime, & topped 200 yds both rushing & passing, behind QB Pinkins & RB Summers. Catch Vols in bit of a sandwich affair (Florida & Auburn). UT clicked on "Hail Mary" at end of 1st half in win over Gators, which was crucial. USC has given the Vols fits, & the visitor is a 6-0 series ATS play. impressive. However, guest owns this series, & dog 15-6 ATS in Cav games.

        Iowa 27 - MICHIGAN STATE 10- (12:00) -We know that the dog is normally golden when these 2 meet. Also Spartans in off much needed bounce back win over Irish, & holding foes to just 41.5 RYpg. But Iowa more than a match in that category. Allowed only 184 yds, 12 FDs, & no pts in win over offensively talented ArizSt. Chandler is cooking, & MSt's Smoker playing hurt. We lay it!

        Comment


        • #5
          WINNINGPOINTS FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

          SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:

          BEST BETS
          **** Atlanta over *Carolina by 9
          *** *Pittsburgh over Tennessee by 17

          RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
          Philadelphia over *Buffalo by 6
          *Baltimore over Kansas City by 9

          SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:

          BEST BETS
          **** NAVY over RUTGERS* by 17
          *** ARKANSAS over ALABAMA* by 16

          RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
          Iowa State over Northern Illinois* by 7
          Illinois* over Wisconsin by 10
          Washington State over Oregon* by 7
          San Diego State over U.C.L.A.* by 1


          Detailed Analysis of NFL & NCAA Best Bets

          ****BEST BET
          Atlanta over *Carolina by 9

          It’s rare to find a team in an underdog role when they’ve outscored their opponent, 71-0, last year. But that’s the case with this matchup. The Falcons destroyed the Panthers, 41-0 on the road and 30-0 at home last season. Now the Falcons are an underdog to these same Panthers. True, Mike Vick had something to do with those victories last year, and he’s still a few weeks from returning. The Falcons, though, have beaten Carolina nine of the last 10 times, going 8-1-1 ATS. Considering how strong the NFC South Division is, the Falcons can’t afford to drop to 0-2 in division with a loss here. So this becomes a huge matchup for them. The Panthers are 2-0, but have scored only four more points than they’ve allowed. Carolina entered its bye week ranked 30th in total offense and 25th in total defense. Those are not the statistics of a strong 2-0 team. Sure enough, the Panthers were lucky to beat winless Jacksonville at home in their opener. The Jaguars outgained the Panthers, 331-242. Carolina then used three blocked kicks and excellent defense to upset Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Doug Johnson is not Vick. He’s a smart quarterback, though, and is comfortable running Atlanta’s offense. On the other hand, Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme is a work in progress, starting just his second game. The Panthers don’t have the kind of offense to lay anything more than a field goal. Their strategy is to pound away with Stephen Davis, who already has 55 carries in two games. Atlanta has two good running backs, too, in Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett. The Falcons play on carpet, but are 8-2-2 ATS on grass, including a 5-2 spread mark last year. Don’t be surprised if the Panthers come out flat having lost the momentum they had after beating Tampa Bay by being off for two weeks. The Panthers started off hot last year, too, and then proceeded to lose eight consecutive games. ATLANTA 23-14.

          ***BEST BET
          *Pittsburgh over Tennessee by 17

          Double revenge, a top passing game, Joey Porter’s return and Eddie George’s slippage puts us squarely on Pittsburgh. Let’s start with the revenge angle. It’s usually more applicable in college handicapping, but sometimes it applies for the pros. This is one of those times. The Titans frustrated the Steelers twice last year, including ending their season with a 34-31 overtime victory in the playoffs. Both of those losses came on the road for Pittsburgh. The Steelers have been pointing to this home matchup ever since. It’s strange to see, but neither team runs very well anymore. Both have become pass-oriented. It makes sense for the Steelers since they have the best starting wide receivers in the NFL with Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress. They’ve helped the Steelers average close to 300 yards passing. The Steelers like to spread the offense out, and Tennessee doesn’t have enough quality players in its secondary to cover Ward and Burress while keeping an eye out for speedy scatback Amos Zereoue. The Titans have turned to an air attack out of necessity because RB Eddie George rarely is effective anymore. George, who turns 30 this week, started to slip last year. He’s regressed more this season. Sorry but gaining 100 yards against New Orleans doesn’t impress us. This puts everything on Steve McNair, whose accuracy can be affected by a broken finger on his passing hand. McNair doesn’t have the quality wideouts the Steelers have. Derrick Mason is McNair’s only consistent target, and he’s not in the class of Ward and Burress. Versatile Antwaan Randle-El, the Steelers’ No. 3 wideout, probably could start for Tennessee. The Steelers also get a lift on defense with the return of star linebacker Joey Porter, who was pierced by a gunshot on Aug. 31. Porter missed the first two games, but returned to action against the Bengals last Sunday and recorded a sack. PITTSBURGH 30-13.

          ****BEST BET
          NAVY over RUTGERS* by 17

          There was a feeling from this corner that when the Naval Academy convinced Paul Johnson to leave Georgia Southern for Annapolis, they had made perhaps the best possible hire that they could for this program. It means a return to option-based football, a terrific way to utilize the size, speed, and discipline of the available athletes, and then Johnson went a step better when he brought Buddy Green in from N.C. State to run the defensive side of the ball. And despite the fact that the Midshipmen won only twice in 12 tries LY, there were major improvements in evidence on both sides of the ball. How about the fact that away from home, against four bowl teams down the stretch (Boston College, Tulane, Notre Dame and Wake Forest), they dealt each of those opponents their worst loss of the season in the total rushing category? They even led Notre Dame and Wake Forest in the fourth quarter before coming up just short, and then dismantled Army 58-12 to cap Johnson’s first season. Now they are already at two wins for this young campaign, and yet this price tells us that the oddsmakers do not even have them close to being pegged right, perhaps because they only had close losses LY, without any break-through upset wins. Craig Candeto can direct an offense filled with veteran skill people with ease against this class of defense, while that vastly improved defense (much more team speed), has not allowed a first half point in the last two games and helps to dictate the tempo here. Minimal home advantage for the Scarlet Knights, if any at all. NAVY 34-17.

          ***BEST BET
          ARKANSAS over ALABAMA* by 16

          There are a lot of signs that indicate that Houston Nutt has his Arkansas program emerging at a true elite level, and NO, we are not going to speak much about that dominating win at Texas two weeks ago. That speaks for itself. But there is much more going on in Fayetteville. First we start with the fact that they showed the maturity to take care of business last week – instead of having a major letdown off of the Texas win they had an excellent focus vs. North Texas, and rolled to a 31-7 halftime lead. And then let us put the Texas rout into perspective – it was not all at all out of the ordinary given recent Razorback road performances. The last five times they have been a road underdog they have won three of the games outright, and the two defeats were by identical scores at difficult places to win – 41-38 at L.S.U. to close out the 2001 regular season, and 41-38 in six overtimes at Tennessee LY. They were also S.E.C. road favorites twice LY and took care of business each time in winning at South Carolina and Mississippi State. Now we get to take them in an underdog role once again despite the fact that they are the better team on the field this day. With Matt Jones developing into a poised veteran that poses both a run and a pass threat, and with Cedric Cobbs back to 100%, the Arkansas offense can move the football without having to resort to tricks. As a result, they have turned the ball over only one time in 196 snaps this season, and it is that kind of execution that keeps a team from being at risk for mistakes on the road. ARKANSAS 30-14.

          Comment


          • #6
            CKO--CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

            SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
            11* NORTH TEXAS over La.-Lafayette
            10* UTAH over *Colorado State
            10* NEVADA over Smu
            10* MICHIGAN STATE over Iowa
            10* SAN FRANCISCO over *Minnesota

            11 *NORTH TEXAS over La.-Lafayette
            Late Score Forecast:
            *NORTH TEXAS 40 - La. Lafayette 6
            Toughened by early slate that included road trips to Arkansas, Air Force and top-ranked Oklahoma, North Texas opens play in SunBelt Conference, which Mean Green (2 straight league titles; 11-1 SU & 9-3 vs. spread in conf. games L2Ys) has dominated recently. Punchless La.-Lafayette (10 ppg TY) has lost last 3 meetings vs. UNT by combined 82-13 (0-3 vs. spread). Ragin’ Cajun rush attack (only 106 ypg) will grind to a halt vs. gnarly Mean Green defense, which returns 8 starters from 2002 unit that allowed just 119 ypg on the ground & 15 ppg. And dominant sr. NT Kennedy (5-10, 312; 2002 conf. player of year) will have ineffectual ULL QBs Rekieta & Babb on run all day. Cajun defense has allowed 612 YR on 5.5 ypc in its last 2 games. UNT offense has depth at TB and 2 experienced QBs. So, wouldn’t hesitate to lay it against ULL, which has only 4 pointspread ****** vs. SunBelt foes in last 2 seasons.

            10 UTAH over *Colorado State
            Late Score Forecast:
            UTAH 31 - *Colorado Sate 27
            Respected CKO scouts rather surprised rested, MWC contender Utah getting nearly full TD in this key conf. opener vs. CSU squad that has unresolved defensive issues. With clever HC Urban Meyer reportedly adding some wrinkles during bye week, Utes strong-armed, 6-4 soph QB A. Smith & emerging go-to, 6-2 jr. WR Warren (16 catches in just 2 games; suspended vs. Tex. A&M) should fully exploit reeling Ram 2ndary that’s allowed awhopping 970 YP vs. 3 major foes so far. And with Utes slashing 6-0, 212 RB Warfield (477 YR, 4.8 ypc, 7 TDs) doing his thing on the ground, anxious CSU defense can ill-afford to blitz on early downs. On other side, suretackling Utah defense effectively copes (again) with Rams highly-mobile QB Van Pelt, who accounted for only 103 yds. in somewhat misleading 28-20 win LY. Utes outgained CSU 481-252 but bogged down too often in redzone. Not this time. Also, make note, Utah is a highly-profitable 19-5 as road dog last decade (9-1 L5Ys)!

            10 *NEVADA over Smu
            Late Score Forecast:
            *NEVADA 44 - Smu 14
            Sure, impost is hefty. But this is simply a case of “go-with vs. go-against.” Improving Nevada is 10-4-1 vs. spread its last 15 on board, including 2-0 TY. Struggling SMU is 2-9-1 against line its last 12, including 0-3 TY. Wolf Pack has won & covered last 2 meetings inconvincing fashion. Balanced Nevada has scored 30 ppg TY. Sledgehammer RB Kretschmer, who led NCAA with 1732 YR as a RS frosh before sitting out LY due to a kneeinjury, ran for 3 TDs last week and has 391 YR on 5.2 ypc. And WAC scouts say Wolf Pack attack ready to really start clicking now that versatile jr. Heiser (71%, 291 YP, 49 YR in win over San Jose State) has emerged as clear-cut No. 1 QB. Meanwhile, punching-bag Ponies have been outscored 120-23 in their first 3 games, with only 1 meaningful TD. Ground game has generated just 97 ypg, and QBs Bartel & Wallis have thrown for only 426 yds. with 6 interceptions. Nevada on the rise; SMU sinking. Lay it.

            10 *MICHIGAN STATE over Iowa
            Late Score Forecast:
            *MICHIGAN STATE 20 - Iowa 16
            New HC John L. Smith has already made a significant impact at Michigan State. The cupboard was far from bare talentwise when he arrived, as former coach Bobby Williams was a solid recruiter. Now Smith has instilled the proper attitude and improved team discipline to take full advantage of that talent. The defensive turnaround has been dramatic, as last season’s team was the worst in school history, yielding 33 ppg and 214 ypg rushing. This season MSU has given up 21 ppg and just 1.4 ypc through four games, as defenders are in better shape and making more plays. Sr. LB Labinjo lost 30 lbs. and regained his starting status; sr. DE Taplin had a 40-yard int. return TD at ND; soph S Eric Smith had 12 tackles & 2 sacks vs.Irish. The offense is more balanced than last season with the return to health of speedy RB Dortch and the continued improvement of soph RB Hayes (249 YR last 2 games). MSU QB Smoker has developed rapport with new go-to WR Shabaj (20 recs.). Iowa offense has been hampered by WR injuries, and Hawkeyes will find the going tough facing revitalized Spartans.

            10 SAN FRANCISCO over *Minnesota
            Late Score Forecast:
            SAN FRANCISCO 27 - *Minnesota 19
            (Sunday, Sept. 28)
            After playing offensively-challenged Chicago and youthful Detroit last two games, Minny’s new defense faces a much tougher test this week vs. the faster, deeper, and better-balanced attack of S.F., led by wily and mobileQB Garcia. Vikes vulnerable CBs will have to deal with Niners terrific trio of WRs of Owens, Streets & C. Wilson, not to mention the RB tandem of Hearst & Barlow. NFL insiders report S.F.’s emphasis on def. speed past few drafts is working out, with HC Erickson happy to take more risks because Niner defenders (many of whom were out with injuries late LY) can now pursue & recover more quickly (S.F. allowing only 16 ppg, vs.23 LY). Vikings pleased as punch with their 3-0 start, but now they’re the hunted ones. And S.F., off two late losses (one of which, in St. Louis, shouldn’t have happened), are ravenous to prevent their own 1-3 start.

            TOTALS: Cincinnati-Cleveland UNDER (40; estimated)—Except for the Jamal Lewis debacle in Baltimore, Cleveland defense doing well; Bengals have gone “under” three straight under Marvin Lewis... Arizona-St. Louis OVER (45) —Jeff Blake gaining rapport with his WRs faster than expected; defense (only 1 sack first 3 games) a major concern vs. Ram offense (even without Marshall Faulk).

            HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): BYU (-3) vs. Air Force—These two developing great series animosity and trading humiliating victories; new def. coord. Mendenhall giving Cougars their best defense in years... CALIFORNIA (+13) vs. Southern Cal—Bears coach Tedford (7-2 as dog) has the magic touch; Cal might despise USC more than UCLA does (yes, that much)... AKRON (-16½) at Buffalo—Charlie Frye & Akron capable of putting up 600+ yds. in this one; Bulls trailed UConn by 24 at the H last week... SOUTH CAROLINA (+16) at Tennessee—Lou’s defense has held Vols’ offense to 17, 17 & 18 L3Ys;
            Gamecocks’ blue-chip RB Summers blossoming rapidly... PHILADELPHIA (+3) at Buffalo—Andy Reid 13-4-2 as dog L3Ys; Bills’ ground game hurting, so QB Bledsoe vulnerable in pocket.

            Comment


            • #7
              NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP

              UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
              CINCINNATI +7 over MIAMI (OHIO)

              NCAA KEY SLEECTIONS:
              4* BYU over Air Force 30-20
              3* WASHINGTON over Stanford 37-13
              3* USC over CALIFORNIA 35-13
              2* Pittsburgh over TEXAS A&M 27-20
              2* Arkansas over ALABAMA 17-13
              2* Maryland over EASTERN MICHIGAN 51-3

              NFL KEY SLEECTIONS:
              4* CAROLINA over Atlanta 23-10
              3* ST. LOUIS over Arizona 37-16
              2* New England over WASHINGTON 21-17
              2* Kansas City over BALTIMORE 20-10

              NFL TOTALS:
              3* CARDINALS/RAMS OVER 45
              3* CHIEFS/RAVENS UNDER 45
              3* PATRIOTS/REDSKINS UNDER 43
              2* 49ERS/VIKINGS OVER 44
              2* EAGLES/BILLS UNDER 41

              Comment


              • #8
                northcoast

                what happen to write ups on college games from powersweep. Went to forum and tried to find to no avail. thanks hc

                Comment


                • #9
                  There all in 1 thread under northcoast

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    ncoast

                    i went through the threads all the way back to mon. It was there this morning under newsletters, and now it shows their star rated plays but not the write ups on the other games. thanks

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I noticed that. BC must of condensed it to units and scores i guess..... i'm not really sure.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        one game

                        there is one game that im particular interested in and that is navyrutgers any opinions would be appreciated, hc

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I removed the writings as northcoast as me to remove them. I encourage anyone that want's the actual writeups to buy the newsletter as it does have a lot of information in it.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            WELL, ANYONE WHO HAS TEXAS TECH-OLE MISS GAME AT ONLY 32 IS OUT OF THERE MIND. 18-14? HOW CAN ANYONE PREDICT THAT SCORE? ITS NOT OKLAHOMA AND OHIO STATE PLAYING. THIS GAME SHOULD EASILY HIT 70 PTS.
                            A $300 PICTURE TUBE WILL BLOW BEFORE A $.10 FUSE- MURPHY'S LAW

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              BC

                              Is it ok for pickem to post the star rated plays without the write ups? Or is Northcoast telling you to ban everything? Was is PhilSr himself that called?
                              You can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning

                              Comment

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