Super Bowl XLII Picks

[roccodean]

Love this one! Will have full analysis closer to gametime.

1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units


3* N.Y. Giants +14 over New England (bought 1/2 point) -120

[BettorsChat]

gl rocco

[Chado1]

BOL with the Giants rocco!!!

[roccodean]

Here's my analysis. May add some props tomorrow. May upgrade giants also.

My main reason for loving the Giants is because you have to do two things to beat the Pats, run the ball on their overrated rushing defense (the Giants are a very good running team averaging 134 YPG) and pressure Brady (Giants lead the league in sacks). The public is on the Giants right now (which usually isn't a god thing), but as the game gets closer the Patriots will get more action.
Let's first dissect the Patriots statistics. As we all know offensively they are amazing. Brady averaged 8.3 YPPA in the regular season, but in the postseason this number slipped to 7.7. On the ground N.E. is simply average gaining 4.1 YPR (14th in the NFL). Defensively, they are very bad against the run allowing 4.4 YPR (26th during the regular season) and have allowed 4.2 YPR in the postseason. This is one of the main reasons I love the Giants because they are going to exploit this weakness. In the air, they allowed 6.4 YPPA during the regular season and 7 during the postseason (slightly above average).
Now let's look at the Giants. The Giants are very strong on the ground averaging 4.6 YPR and they are going to eat up the Patriots overrated defense. They want to keep Brady off the field as long as possible to they will run the ball effectively and eat up the clock, which is always good when you bet a big dog. Eli struggled during the regular season throwing for only 6.2 YPPA, but this improved to 7 YPPA in the postseason. As long as Eli manages the game and doesn't make mistake the Giants will stay in this contest. Defensively, the Giants are very strong especially getting pressure on the QB where they led the league with 3.3 sacks/game. That is exactly what you need to do to beat Brady. The Giants only allowed 3.8 YPR during the regular season (8th) and 3.6 YPR in the playoffs. During the regular season they allowed 7 YPPA, but in the playoffs they have allowed only 5.86 YPPA (best out of all playoff teams). My Super System has the Pats -15.4. Unless the line goes to 11 this comes into play, but I don't foresee this happening. If it does, the Giants will be downgraded.
I love the Giants and am also taking the money line at +400 for 0.2 units because I think they have a chance for the upset.

[Dat Boi E]

good luck with tha play, Roc! i'm on that one myself!

[roccodean]

Props

N.Y. Giants longest FG in game -125
The Pats are more inclined to go on fourth down if it's short yardage, where the Giants will kick the field goal.

N.E. Total FG under 1.5 +120
I am betting this for the same reason as my bet above. Gostkowski (Patriot's kicker) has only made 21 field goals all year (in 18 games) so the odds are in your favor on this wager.

N.Y. Giants more rushing yards -105
This one seems too easy. The Giants averaged 134 YPG and the Pats averaged 116 YPG. The only way this one loses is if the Pats take a big lead and run the ball more.

[roccodean]

HIT THE GIANTS AND THE MONEY LINE AND EVERY PROP!!!!!!!!!!!!

[GrandPa]

Nice job Roc!

Especially that ML

Congrats

[roccodean]

[roccodean]

still celebratin!

[Chado1]

That makes one of us...

Congrats..

[roccodean]

thanks chado...youll be back dont worry!