Kaptains "NFL" plays for Sunday

[Kaptain]

I'm gonna take, what I think is the EZ way out of these games........

MONEY LINE PARLAY
NE -850
GB -345...........1 = 0.44..........................10* (10 for 4.4)

Lots of juice given up, but I see GB and NE both winning....can't speak for the spread though.....weather is preventing me from playing OVER's, but do lean to OVER's in both games.....

GL fellows---enjoy your NFL TV day......thanks

[poskid]

I think I can honestly say...nice move. NE is a lock and the added money value to the GB game makes this a very good play.

BOL

PK

[10DimeBry]

GL today kapt

[Shaun32]

gl kapt

[BillMill71]

Good Luck Kapt

[wayne1218]

gl MBFAM!!!!!!!!!!!

[jt4545]

good luck Kapt on my way to bowl in a tournament

[Kaptain]

When evaluating betting lines, many professional odds makers look for the most obscure statistic with the most reason. Not that the Patriots need any more impetus towards this game or experts who unite in their votes, hoping it will be at least a reasonably competitive match. But in the last 25 years, teams traveling west to east through three time zones in playoff games are 3 and 14. Flat out it doesn't matter how much better the Patriots seem to be if these teams were considered even, the Chargers would only have an 18% chance of winning the game.

So the bottom line is that this is the Pats' game to lose, not the Chargers' game to win. And knowing the Pats' track record in the post-season, I can sleep good tonight knowing they won't make more mistakes than the Chargers. No disrespect to San Diego, but the Pats are just too good, especially this time of year, especially at home, and especially in the cold weather (7-0 all-time in post-season home games with temperatures below 32 degrees). Go Pats!

[MrReporter]

Your book is gonna be shipwrecked after today Kaptain!!...Lock it up!!!!!

[st bobby]

gl kap bring it home

[TheRook]

good luck kapt!

[Kaptain]

Here's looking at the games

SD Chargers at NE
The injuries: The Chargers are in trouble, with tight end Antonio Gates (dislocated toe), running back LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) and quarterback Philip Rivers (knee) all injured. "It's that time of year," said general manager A.J. Smith. And the timing couldn't be worse.

Tomlinsin probably will play, but Gates didn't practice on Friday and is listed as doubtful. And Rivers went through a limited practice and is also listed as doubtful. Not good. Defensive tackle Jamal Williams, who suffered an ankle injury last weekend, did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, either.

By contrast, the Patriots are in much better shape. Tackle Matt Light (illness) sat out practice Thursday but is expected to play. Safety Mel Mitchell (biceps) is listed as out.

The story: The Chargers played here in September and got waxed 38-14. Now they're back, this time with their top three offensive playmakers -- Tomlinson, Rivers and Gates -- injured, and the Patriots in a spot (home for the playoffs) where they never lose. Soooooo .... somehow San Diego is supposed to make this a game? I don't see how.

The Chargers might have a chance if Rivers were healthy, but he's playing on two bad knees. He says he will start, and I believe him. But how good will he be? Tomlinson is the league's best back and has a history of shredding the Patriots, but he's operating on one bad knee. He, too, will play, but at what level? Sorry, San Diego, but the tide is going out, and only the Bolts' defense can make this a game.


Tom Brady might have to deal with harsh winds on Sunday.
Look what happened in last year's playoff game between these two. The Chargers harried Tom Brady all afternoon, forced him into three interceptions and still lost. And they lost because they forgot that Tomlinson was their best weapon, basically ignoring him on the final two series. I'm not sure how the Chargers play better on defense, but I am sure they will need turnovers, big plays and possibly scores.

The problem is, where the Patriots beat them in 2007 with receivers like Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell (it was his catch that set up the game-winning field goal), now they have Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte' Stallworth as targets for Tom Brady. Maybe San Diego's only hope here is Mother Nature, and I'm not talking about the cold. I'm talking about the wind, with gusts of 20-25 mph forecast for Sunday.

If you're a San Diego fan, that's welcome news because it will make it difficult to throw. Which means it could come down to rushing attacks, and there's no comparison here except ... except that Tomlinson is hampered. There is nothing good about this game for San Diego, including New England's home [COLOR="red"]playoff record with Brady [/COLOR](unbeaten), Brady's record-breaking season and the Chargers' having to play their second straight game in the Eastern time zone.

One other thing: Is the current Moss situation a distraction for New England. You can't be serious. This team dealt with Spygate all season, going 17-0 to this point, and now an unverified accusation is supposed to disrupt team chemistry? There's a better chance of Brady throwing six interceptions.

Something to consider: Brady is 3-2 in five starts against the Chargers, with 10 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a passer rating of 85.0. Brady has thrown for 275 or more yards in four of those games and attempted 50 or more passes in three of them. The Chargers are one of only three non-division opponents to have beaten Brady more than once.


NFC Championship Game
New York Giants at Green Bay,

The Giants aren't sure if they'll have Sam Madison available.

The injuries: Giants cornerback Kevin Dockery (hip flexor) has not practiced and will not play. Cornerbacks Sam Madison (abdominal strain) and Aaron Ross (shoulder) were limited in practice, with Madison's status for Sunday uncertain.

Green Bay cornerback Will Blackmon (foot) practiced this week, but center Scott Wells (glute) did not. Nevertheless, coach Mike McCarthy said he expects Wells to be ready to play Sunday.

Already there is talk of a frozen tundra, though the 30 miles of heat-filled pipes running under Lambeau Field won't allow that to happen. Still, this will be billed as a Cold War, with the emphasis on cold. Game-time temperatures might hover near zero, with wind chills approximately 15 below, which means the Ice Bowl cometh again. Most of the players here have little or no knowledge of that Dallas-Green Bay game played 40 years ago, but that's OK because they're about to relive it -- with the Giants insisting they won't wear long sleeves.

Knock yourselves out, guys.

The cold won't beat the Giants, but the Packers could. New York can't lose on the road, and the Packers rarely lose at home in the playoffs. Something has to give, and the guess here is that it's the Giants' run of good fortune. They haven't lost a road game since the season opener, but they haven't played Green Bay at Lambeau Field when the temperature is in single digits and a Super Bowl berth is at stake.


Brett Favre is one victory away from a third Super Bowl.
The Packers are the league's youngest team, and that's supposed to be a factor in the playoffs. And maybe it will be. But they have experience where it counts, and I'll start at quarterback. This is Brett Favre's 22nd playoff game, and, yes, he seems to be improving. In fact, he reminds me of John Elway at this stage of his career, adapting to the players around him -- i.e., Ryan Grant -- and doing just enough to push his team over the edge.

The Packers have experience at the corners, too, with Charles Woodson and Al Harris the best tandem in the league. Look for them to play bump-and-run coverage to disrupt the rhythm of the Giants' passing attack and maybe, just maybe, force Eli Manning into the mistakes he has avoided the past three games.

Manning is the X-factor here. You keep waiting for him to hiccup, but so far, so good. The guy has been lights out the past three starts, nearly beating New England before running the table against Tampa Bay and Dallas. He looks more confident. He seems more patient. And he's not screwing things up. No fumbles. One interception. And lots of big plays. But this is his biggest stage and ... it's going to be cold, did anyone mention that?

With a game of this magnitude there must be a subplot, and if it's not the temps it's the Packers' suggestions this week that the Giants play dirty -- or, at least, they did the last time these two met, a 35-13 Green Bay blowout in September. The Giants were penalized 77 times this season, the fifth-lowest total in the league. Green Bay, on the other hand, was penalized 113 times.
Like I said, knock yourselves out, guys.

Something to consider: The key matchup is the Giants' Osi Umenyiora vs. Green Bay tackle Chad Clifton, and the edge goes to Clifton. In three previous meetings, Umenyiora doesn't have a sack. The Giants led the NFL in sacks with 53, while Green Bay allowed only 19, the third-lowest total in the league.




Stat of the week
The New England Patriots are 5-1 in conference championship games. That ties them with Washington for the best winning percentage among clubs that have made at least four conference championship appearances.

[Spark]

Good Luck Kapt

[Kaptain]

Supporting my Choices

Brett Favre and Tom Brady combined to complete 44 of 51 of their passes. That's an astonishing completion rate of 86.2%. And they also combined to throw 6 TD passes and zero interceptions. Are they on a collision course to meet in Super Bowl XLII? Me thinks so.

[jcindaville]

wow, lots of info.

good luck karl