Friday Trends and Indexes 01/18

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Friday, January 18

Good Luck on day #18 of 2008!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

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[pm530]

Weekend Sports Preview

The NFL Conference Championships steal most of the spotlight on the sports schedule this weekend, but there’s also plenty of NBA, college hoops and NHL action.

There are four teams still fighting to make it to the Super Bowl this weekend. After the final play is run on Sunday, only two will be going to Phoenix. Conference Championship Sunday kicks off with San Diego taking on New England (-14) for the AFC title. The NFC Championship follows as the N.Y. Giants invade Green Bay (-7).

The NBA gets the weekend started on Friday with 10 games on the schedule, highlighted by Atlanta at Toronto, Charlotte at New Orleans, and Golden State at Chicago. The rest of Friday night’s matchups include New York at Washington, Portland at Miami, Philadelphia at Boston, Seattle at Memphis, the Clippers at Utah and Minnesota at Phoenix.

The NBA stays busy on Saturday with 11 games on tap starting with Memphis at Charlotte, Toronto at Philadelphia, Portland at Orlando, Sacramento at Indiana, New York at Miami and Golden State at Milwaukee. Also on tap on Saturday is Detroit at Chicago, San Antonio at Houston, Minnesota at Denver, Seattle at Dallas and New Jersey at the Clippers.

Sunday is very quiet in the NBA, with only one game on the schedule, as New Jersey takes on Phoenix.

In college hoops this weekend all 10 of the Top 10 ranked schools take to the court. Eight of them play on Saturday with the only ranked matchup being No. 24 Clemson at No. 7 Duke. The rest of the Top 10 contests on Saturday include Notre Dame at No. 5 Georgetown, Maryland at No. 1 North Carolina, Ohio State at No. 6 Tennessee, USC at No. 4 UCLA, No. 10 Texas A&M at Kansas State, No. 3 Kansas at Missouri and Southern Miss at No. 2 Memphis.

The two Top 10 schools in action on Sunday are Penn State at No. 9 Indiana and Oregon at No. 8 Washington State.

The NHL drops the puck on the weekend with seven games on Friday night. Friday’s top matchups appear to be Atlanta at Buffalo, Edmonton at Carolina, Anaheim at Minnesota and Chicago at Colorado. The rest of the Friday night games include Florida at New Jersey, Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh, Los Angeles at Calgary.

There are 11 NHL games on Saturday night starting with the Rangers at Boston, Columbus at Dallas, Pittsburgh at Montreal, Philadelphia at the Islanders, Tampa Bay at Ottawa, Buffalo at Toronto and Florida at Washington. The later Saturday night games include Nashville at St. Louis, Chicago at Phoenix, Los Angeles at Vancouver and Detroit at San Jose.

The NHL closes out the weekend on Sunday with six games, including Boston at the Rangers, Edmonton at Atlanta, Anaheim at Dallas, Toronto at New Jersey, Ottawa at Philadelphia and Columbus at Colorado.

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[pm530]

Six-pack for Friday

-- A's GM Billy Beane not only makes $1M a year, he owns 4% of the team, which is good for him, because.......

--......the team is valued by Forbes Magazine at $292 million, compared to the $180M Lewis Wolff paid for team in 2005.

-- Wolff, by the way, is frat brother of Bud Selig; he had to get into this knowing he was going to make big bucks.

-- One reason Joe Blanton, Huston Street might still be on the A's this season? They both make only $380,000 a year.

-- One of team's minority owners is John Fisher, whose dad owns the Gap clothing stores.

-- Team's payroll LY was $79,366,940, and team was awful; they'll be awful this year too, but after dumping Haren and Swisher and Kotsay, their payroll will be a lot lighter.

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[pm530]

Friday's List of 13: Friday facts for your perusal........

13) Exhibit A why the NFL had to have a salary cap; Dallas is playing Jason Garrett $3M a year to be offensive coordinator, rather than head coach in Baltimore or Atlanta. Imagine what Jerry Jones would have paid players to stay in Dallas, if he didn't have the cap to deal with?

12) Saskatchewan Roughriders won Grey Cup this year, but they lost their coach this week, as Ole Miss alum Kent Austin signed to be offensive coordinator of the Rebels, at $290,000 a year. Lot of big money in college football.

11) NFL will play another game in England next year; we'd like them to bring a sturdy grass field to play on this time.

10) Tennessee Vols are deep; they have 11 guys playing at least ten minutes a game. Thats a lot of guys getting time.

9) Bud Selig is now staying as baseball commissioner until at least 2012, getting a three-year extension Thursday. Selig has some good ideas, but hasn't been given enough clout to get them to happen by the nitwit baseball owners.

8) Actor Samuel L. Jackson was an usher at Martin Luther King's funeral back in 1968.

7) 13 of the Cavaliers' 21 wins this season are by five points or less, which explains why Lebron James should be MVP.

6) Signing Day in college football is 19 days away; will be fun to see who Bobby Petrino hoodwinks into signing with his new team, Arkansas. Most recruits redshirt their first year in college, so they stay five years; no way Petrino stays all five.

5) Golf Channel analyst Kelly Tilghman got two-weeks off as punishment for her "lynching"comment on air few weeks ago She'll be back on TV next week.

4) Talk is cheap because supply exceeds demand.

3) Arizona State came from behind to upset Cal in Berkeley as they moved to 4-0 in Pac-10, an excellent Cinderella story.

2) Thursday was bad day to be a college hoop coach, as two of them lost their job, on January 17. South Carolina's Dave Odom will be "retiring" after the season; you think he'd be in that position if Gamecocks were winning games?

1) Pepperdine's Vance Walberg is resigning midway through his second season in Malibu; not sure why. His team is full of freshmen, they appeared to have promise, but maybe losing took its toll on Walberg, who had done nothing but win big in his coaching career, in high school and junior college.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

San Diego at New England
The Patriots were a part of San Diego's early demise as they easily defeated the Chargers (38-14) in Week 2. But San Diego recovered by winning 10 of its last 12, including last week's upset at Indianapolis over the heavily-favored Colts. The Patriots keep on winning, but are just 1-6 in their last seven ATS compared to San Diego's perfect 7-0 mark. The Chargers are the underdog pick (+14) according to Dunkel, which has New England favored by just 8. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+14). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 20

Game 303-304: San Diego at New England
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 140.943; New England 148.923
Dunkel Line: New England by 8; 44
Vegas Line: New England by 14; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+14); Under

Game 305-306: NY Giants at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 133.243; Green Bay 142.357
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9; 43
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7); Over

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Sunday, January 20
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SAN DIEGO (13 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (17 - 0) - 1/20/2008, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 116-87 ATS (+20.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 52-29 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN DIEGO is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (12 - 6) at GREEN BAY (14 - 3) - 1/20/2008, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
GREEN BAY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games this season.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games this season.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
NY GIANTS are 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
NY GIANTS are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


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Sunday, January 20
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AFC Championship Game
TV: CBS
San Diego at New England, 3:00 ET


San Diego:
21-3 ATS off 5+ ATS wins
7-1 ATS off BB wins

New England:
1-6 ATS after winning 8+ of their last 10 games
1-7 ATS off a SU home win / ATS loss

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NFC Championship Game
TV: FOX
NY Giants at Green Bay, 6:30 ET


NY Giants:
7-1 ATS away vs. conference opponents
6-0 ATS revenging a loss by 14+ points

Green Bay:
8-1 Over off BB wins
7-1 Over after scoring 30+ points

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Sunday, January 20

Conference Championship Games

Chargers have severe injury issues, with Rivers, Tomlinson and Gates all banged up, but they've won eight games in row, are on roll, with 26 takeaways, 25 sacks and +18 turnover ratio in those eight games. That said, Patriots are 17-0, crushed Bolts 38-14 on this field way back in Week 2 (-3.5), outgaining them by 206 yds in game that was 24-0 at half. Would New England have letdown because they're not facing the Colts? Patriots upset Chargers in San Diego last year in playoffs; can Bolts turn the tables?

Giants won last nine road games, a tremendous streak, but now they're on road for third week in row, fourth time in last five wks. Manning has experience in bad weather; he was just 7-15/94 on a windy day in Buffalo four weeks ago, but Giants ran ball for 291 yards in that win. Green Bay, like Patriots, has advantage of not having played two weeks ago, so they should have fresher legs. RB Grant was in Giants' training camp, then deal to Packers right before season started; now he's a big star with a revenge motive. 5:30 local time kickoff with sub-zero temps make this a miserable game to attend, and hard game to pass in.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


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Tips and Trends
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Sunday, January 20

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (CBS | 3 PM ET)

This is a rematch of a Week 2 matchup at New England, which the Patriots won 38-14. That game was played with some major revenge by the home team, who was accused of stealing signals the week before against the Jets. Randy Moss had a big game for the Pats with 8 catches for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns while Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson was limited to 43 yards on 18 carries. Neither player was effective last week, with Tomlinson nursing a knee injury that will likely keep him from playing at 100 percent. EDGE: PATRIOTS
San Diego Pro Bowl CB Antonio Cromartie did not play in the 1st meeting, as he did not see action until Week 3 at Green Bay. Cromartie played a key role in Sunday's win at Indy and picked off Peyton Manning 4 times in 2 meetings. He led the NFL in interceptions with 10 and will likely be assigned the task of checking Moss in the AFC Championship. SLIGHT EDGE: CHARGERS
Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after starting the season on a 9-1 ATS run.
Chargers are 8-0 SU & ATS in their last 8 games.
Chargers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. AFC opponents.
The OVER is 11-2-2 in San Diego's last 15 road games.
The OVER is 16-6-1 in New England's last 23 game overall.
The OVER is 8-3-1 in New England's last 12 games on field turf.
The UNDER is 9-2-1 in New England's last 12 home playoff games.


New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (FOX | 6:30 PM ET)

These teams also met in Week 2 of the regular season before Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had fully implemented his scheme. The Packers rolled to an easy 35-13 victory at New York behind 3 touchdown passes from Brett Favre. The Giants were led by Derrick Ward's 90 rushing yards and Jeremy Shockey's 5 catches for 60 yards. Both Ward and Shockey are out of the playoffs with injuries, but the team has had little trouble replacing them. SLIGHT EDGE: PACKERS
Packers RB Ryan Grant was 5th on New York's depth chart in the preseason behind Ward, Brandon Jacobs, Reuben Droughns and Ahmad Bradshaw. Grant was then acquired by Green Bay from the Giants for a 6th-round draft pick before another team could claim him on waivers. Even though he fumbled twice against the Seahawks, Grant's 201 rushing yards clearly set the tone for the rest of the team's win. He will likely be the key figure again at frigid Lambeau Field on Sunday in what could very well be a ball-control game. EDGE: PACKERS
Giants QB Eli Manning has played well in the last 3 games, throwing 8 touchdowns with just 1 interception. However, all 3 of those games were played in good weather conditions while the temperature in Sunday's game might not even reach double digits. EDGE: PACKERS
Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
Giants have won 9 straight on the road, going 8-1 ATS in those games.
Giants are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. NFC opponents.
The UNDER is 8-1 in New York's last 9 road games.
The OVER is 13-3 in Green Bay's last 16 games overall.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Recent Trends

NFL


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NFL Recent Trends
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Sunday, January 20

San Diego (13-5) at New England (17-0)

San Diego:
SD are 43-20-2 ATS in their last 65 games overall.
SD are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 vs. AFC.

New England:
Under is 9-2-1 in NE last 12 playoff home games.
Over is 16-6-1 in NE last 23 games overall.
Over is 8-3-1 in NE last 12 games on field turf.

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N.Y. Giants (12-6) at Green Bay (14-3)

N.Y. Giants:
Under is 8-1 in NYG last 9 road games.

Green Bay:
GB are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Over is 13-3 in GB last 16 games overall.
GB are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.

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[pm530]

National Football League – In Depth Trends

NFL


Sunday, January 20

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NFL In Depth Trends
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Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher.
Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

Trends - San Diego at New England

ATS Trends

San Diego
Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chargers are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chargers are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.
Chargers are 46-15-2 ATS in their last 63 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chargers are 27-10-2 ATS in their last 39 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 43-20-2 ATS in their last 65 games overall.
Chargers are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 vs. AFC.
Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

New England
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Championships games.
Patriots are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff home games.
Patriots are 44-19-2 ATS in their last 65 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games in January.
Patriots are 41-20-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.


O/U Trends

San Diego
Over is 4-0-1 in Chargers last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0-2 in Chargers last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-1-2 in Chargers last 9 road games.
Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games in January.
Over is 5-1-1 in Chargers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1-1 in Chargers last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Chargers last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Over is 6-2 in Chargers last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 9-3-2 in Chargers last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

New England
Over is 5-1-1 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 9-2-1 in Patriots last 12 playoff home games.
Over is 10-3-1 in Patriots last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Over is 9-3-1 in Patriots last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 9-3-1 in Patriots last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 19-7-1 in Patriots last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 games as a home favorite.
Over is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 games on field turf.
Over is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 home games.
Under is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 16-6-1 in Patriots last 23 games overall.
Over is 13-5-1 in Patriots last 19 games as a favorite.
Over is 15-6-1 in Patriots last 22 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 12-5-1 in Patriots last 18 playoff games.
Under is 9-4 in Patriots last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.


Head to Head
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New England.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

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Trends - N.Y. Giants at Green Bay

ATS Trends

N.Y. Giants
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
Giants are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff road games.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Giants are 7-16-3 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Giants are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Green Bay
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Packers are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win.
Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Packers are 14-4-2 ATS in their last 20 vs. NFC.
Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Packers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


O/U Trends

N.Y. Giants
Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games in January.
Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 playoff games.
Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC.
Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 road games.
Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games overall.

Green Bay
Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games as a home favorite.
Over is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games on grass.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 home games.
Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games as a favorite.
Over is 7-0 in Packers last 7 vs. NFC.
Over is 11-1 in Packers last 12 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 13-3 in Packers last 16 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Packers last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


Head to Head
Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Ten Trends

NFL


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NFL – 10 Trends
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10 NFL trends that might matter this weekend

When it comes to handicapping trends and against the spread (ATS) statistics, you either love ‘em or hate ‘em. Here’s a list of compelling tidbits for you number nerds out there.

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-14, 47 ½)
Sunday Jan. 20, 3 p.m. ET

San Diego is 14-3-1 against the number in its last 18 games as an underdog
- San Diego hasn’t been dogged since dropping a 24-17 decision at Jacksonville as a three-point favorite in Week 11. The week before that, the Chargers downed the Colts 23-21 as 3 ½-point favorites.

San Diego is riding an 8-0 streak both straight up and ATS
- Looking back, San Diego’s slow start out of the gate makes a lot more sense. The Chargers were still getting used to Norv Turner and they get a pass for two of those losses (at Green Bay and at New England). Since then they’ve been a lot more like last year’s dominant 14-2 team.

San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog of 10 ½ points or greater
- Unfamiliar territory for San Diego bettors here, so take this one with a grain of salt. The Chargers haven’t been this big of an underdog since the 2000 season.

New England has dropped six of its last seven games ATS
-The public perception police will be banging on my door if I keep this up, but you can’t ignore the impact of the media’s Patriots mania on New England’s pointspreads. This is the best team I’ve ever seen. However, that doesn’t mean the Pats can be two touchdowns better than every other club in the league every single Sunday. Everybody wants to be the team that beats the Pats so they’re getting everyone’s best game right now with some awfully big spreads to cover.

Six of the last eight meetings between New England and San Diego have played over the total
- San Diego’s injury status might be the difference here. If Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates are all healthy enough to play, the Chargers should be able to put some points on the board. And you know the Pats won’t be held down.


New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7, 42)
Sunday Jan. 20, 6:30 p.m. ET

New York is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a winning home record
- I love New York sports fans – as long as their team’s winning. You have to respect their passion and intensity, but the ruthless fans at Giant Stadium are part of the reason why this team is so good away from home.

New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six January games
- The Giants have won January games in sunny Tampa Bay and Dallas this year and beat the Eagles in Philadelphia last year. It was 53 degrees in Philly for that one. They might get a real taste of winter football at Lambeau this week.

Green Bay is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games played on grass
-Ryan Grant is great at making one cut to the weak side and pointing his shoulders straight downhill to take would-be tacklers for a ride. Green Bay’s nasty defense is made for a grass surface too.

Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games
- Years ago you won’t even consider betting against the Pack at Lambeau once November hit. You’ll hear that rule of thumb a lot more now that they have a running game again.

Green Bay has played over in 13 of its last 16 games overall
- I didn’t think Brett Favre had it in him to protect the ball and take check-downs instead of launching bombs into triple coverage like he did last year and pretty much every year before that. But I love Green Bay’s play-calling now. Favre’s seeing results and that’s enough to keep him happy.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Mismatches

NFL


Sunday, January 20

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NFL mismatches: Where to find the edge in Sunday's games
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San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-14, 47 ½)

Chargers’ receiving corps vs. Patriots’ linebackers

If the Patriots have one weakness it’s their aging linebacker corps. It has had problems covering quick receivers as the season wore on, with the Eagles’ Brian Westbrook and the Giants’ Plaxico Burress enjoying successful games.

Tedy Bruschi, Junior Seau and strong safety Rodney Harrison are especially vulnerable in coverage situations, and they are not comfortable chasing people. The average age of that trio is 35.6 years, and it’s been a bruising 17-game season for them.

The Chargers have several options to take advantage of that weakness. LaDanian Tomlinson, who is struggling with a knee injury, will certainly wear down Seau and Bruschi if he is fit enough to play.

If not, they still have Michael Turner and Darren Sproles, who are capable of causing the Pats problems.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady vs. Chargers’ pass defense

This mismatch isn’t because of any major weakness in San Diego’s pass defense, it’s just because Tom Brady is that good. The Pats quarterback keeps getting better and his record in the postseason makes for impressive reading.

Brady has won 15 of 13 career playoff games, completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 3,479 yards and 23 touchdowns. In last week’s win over Jacksonville, he was close to perfect. He set an NFL postseason record with his 92.9 completion percentage, throwing for 262 yards and three TDs.

San Diego’s pass defense was 13th overall in the regular season, allowing 212.7 yards per game. Last week against the Colts, it gave up 402 passing yards and three touchdowns to quarterback Peyton Manning.


New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7, 41 ½)

Giants’ pass rush vs. Packers’ offensive line

In the second half of last Sunday’s game against Dallas, the Giants had Tony Romo on the ground after almost every play he made. They’ll be looking to do the same to veteran quarterback Brett Favre this week, and it’s hard to see the Packers stopping defensive ends Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan.

That duo has combined for 83 tackles and 23 sacks this season, as part of a Giants’ defense that led the league in sacks (52). They had two sacks against Tony Romo last week, and were consistently getting close enough to tackle him after the pass.

During the regular season, Favre got sacked 15 times in his 16 games. He was sacked just once in Green Bay’s previous meeting with New York this season (Sept. 16), but Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin still called it a “shoddy” performance from his offensive line.

Packers quarterback Brett Favre vs. Giants’ pass defense

Even if the Giants pass rush gets after Favre, he’s still going to have a major impact on this game. The veteran has enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career, and produced 173 yards and three touchdowns against Seattle last week.

Favre joined Joe Montana as the only NFL passer with 5,000 postseason yards and he continued his streak of 17 consecutive playoff games with a touchdown pass. He also recorded his highest passer rating in 21 postseason games last week (137.6).

The Giants ranked 12th in the league against the pass this season, giving up 212.7 yards per game in the air. They allowed Favre to throw for 286 yards and three touchdowns in a 35-13 Green Bay win on Sept. 16.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Reports

NFL
REPORTS


for Sunday’s games (January 20)

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Reports: AFC, NFC Championship games
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AFC

Injured Chargers limp to Foxborough after Rivers, Tomlinson are injured

San Diego Chargers (13-5) at New England Patriots (17-0)

The last time the San Diego Chargers went to New England, they had Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and a healthy Antonio Gates.

They lost anyway, 38-14.

The Chargers may have beaten the Indianapolis Colts 28-24 on Sunday without their top players, but they'll have a hard time keeping up with the unbeaten Patriots in the AFC title game if they're still out. The same thing seems true in the NFC, where the New York Giants will head to Green Bay after upsetting Dallas 21-17 with a banged-up secondary missing its top three cornerbacks.

Back on Sept. 16, a Sunday night game in the second week of the season, the Patriots were just getting started on their 16-0 run and blowing away anyone in their path. Their margin of victory dropped markedly in the second half of the season, but New England will still be 17-0 when it plays host to the Chargers next Sunday.

''A lot's happened since then,'' Patriots coach Bill Belichick said after the Chargers beat the Colts to qualify for a trip to Foxborough and the AFC title game. ''We'll definitely start all over on the preparations. It's like it's a new team.''

The first question for San Diego is the health of Rivers and Tomlinson, its starting quarterback and star running back, who was the 2006 NFL MVP. Both injured their knees against the Colts and their status isn't yet known for the conference championship. Gates played with a toe injury, but clearly wasn't at full speed.

Both Rivers and Tomlinson said they hope to play. Coach Norv Turner said they both were questionable.

Even if they do take the field, the Chargers (13-5) face a daunting task.

Tom Brady did to Jacksonville in Saturday night's 31-20 win what Peyton Manning did to the Chargers early in Sunday's game, completing his first 13 passes, most of them underneath, to help Indianapolis take a 7-0 lead. But after Marvin Harrison, coming back from injury, fumbled one of his completions to give the Chargers life, Manning started taking more chances and had less success deep.

San Diego managed to beat the Colts with subs - good ones in Michael Turner and Darren Sproles at running back, plus journeyman Billy Volek at quarterback leading the winning TD drive. Turner and Sproles together equal Tomlinson, but Volek is not going to beat the Patriots. Rivers will have a hard time doing that if he's ready.

If the Chargers, who opened as a 15-point underdog, are to have a chance, they'll have to get the kind of pressure they got on Manning on critical drives late in the game. That was most notable when Shawne Merriman got around rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh to force an incomplete pass on fourth down inside the San Diego 10-yard line with just over 2 minutes left.

Merriman is certainly one of the NFL's best pass rushers and Shaun Phillips is formidable from the other side.

So Brady may not have as much time as he had Saturday night in completing 26 of 28 passes, an NFL playoff-record 92.9 percent. But the Chargers don't cover as well as Jacksonville, and Randy Moss is unlikely to be limited to one catch for 14 yards, as he was by the Jaguars.

Now we wait to see if Rivers and Tomlinson will even play.

Belichick thinks they will.

''We're prepared for everybody. As we saw today, any number of players could be in the game,'' he said. ''If they're on the 53-man roster, we'll prepare for everybody.''

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NFC

New York Giants (12-6) at Green Bay (14-3)

Like the Patriots and Chargers, these two played in the second week. That one was at Giants Stadium and the Packers won 35-13 before New York understood the defense installed by Steve Spagnuolo, its new coordinator.

That defense, with its stunts and twists, confused and harassed Tony Romo enough in the second half against Dallas on Sunday to keep him from exploiting a secondary without Sam Madison, Aaron Ross and Kevin Dockery, its three top cornerbacks for most of the season.

The Packers opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite, which seems a little low.

Consider that Eli Manning's revival - eight touchdown passes, just one interception and passer ratings of well over 100 in his last three games - all came in good weather. And he has attributed his problems in the four previous games to wind and cold.

Attention Eli: The long-range forecast for next Sunday in Green Bay is a high of 4 degrees. Yes, Brett Favre, like Manning, is a southerner - his hometown of Kiln, Miss., and Manning's New Orleans are about 60 miles apart.

But Favre has played in Green Bay for 16 seasons and thrives there. Had he been forced to go to Dallas, he would have been returning to a place where he is 0-9 as a starter.

If it turns into a ground battle, there's the matchup that probably will be second only to Brett-Eli in the pregame hype: Ryan Grant, who rushed for 201 yards against in the 42-20 win over Seattle in the snow on Saturday vs. the Giants running backs.

Grant, who played high school football less than 20 miles from Giants Stadium, was signed as an undrafted free agent from Notre Dame by New York in 2005. He spent that year on the practice squad, then last season on injured reserve.

He was impressive in preseason but was fifth on the depth chart behind Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Reuben Droughns and Ahmad Bradshaw. The Packers, knowing he would be cut, gave the Giants a sixth-round pick for him before some other team could claim him on waivers.

Now Grant stands between his old teammates and the Super Bowl.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Line Report

NFL
Line Report


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NFL – Line Report for games on January 20
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NFL title games opening line report

It doesn’t matter that LaDainian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers probably are going to play, or that frigid weather is expected in Green Bay. Bookmakers are going to make you pay a high price if you want to lay the favorites.

New England opened as high as -15 hosting San Diego in the AFC championship game, while the Packers are -7 hosting the New York Giants.

“You always want to be on the high side in these championship games,” said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, in expressing the house’s point of view.

“But my personal opinion is I think these lines are inflated. It’s a lot of points to be laying into two hot teams.”

The Chargers have won and covered in their last eight games. They beat Indianapolis on the road as a double-digit underdog, despite Tomlinson and Rivers going down with knee injuries and Gates hampered by a dislocated toe.

The Giants have won nine road games in a row, despite suffering massive injuries the past few weeks, including losing tight end Jeremy Shockey for the season.

The Patriots’ number has settled in at -14. The total has come down, too, to from as high as 51 points to 47 ½. The early weather forecast for Sunday’s day game at Foxboro is 15 degrees, no snow and some wind.

LVSC’s recommended number on the Chargers-Patriots matchup was New England -14 with an ‘over/under’ of 50. This was factoring in Tomlinson and Rivers, both of whom are listed as “questionable.” Both probably will see action. The oddsmakers at LVSC consider Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates closer to doubtful than probable. Gates played on-and-off against the Colts.

The undefeated Patriots have failed to cover seven of their last nine matchups after beginning the season with eight straight covers. A combination of inflated lines, bad weather and the Patriots gearing for the postseason have factored in the team going 1-6 against the spread during their past seven games.

“The Patriots defense has looked vulnerable,” Seba said. “They haven’t looked like the Patriots of Week 8.”

Seba doesn’t anticipate the number rising. He said he would be surprised if the Patriots reached -14 ½ again, which they were on Sunday and Monday at some places.

“I think there’s more of a chance they close at 13 ½,” he said.

The Giants-Packers total also dropped within the first 24 hours since it was posted on Sunday. Some books opened the ‘over/under’ at 43 ½. The total currently is down to 41 ½ with an early forecast calling for 40 percent chance of snow with a high of 12 degrees for the night contest.

LVSC’s sent-out number on the game was Packers -7. Seba’s number was lower at -6. He believes the Giants are a take getting a touchdown.

“It’s too many points,” he said of the touchdown line. “The Giants winning nine straight road games is pretty impressive. I can see catching seven with the Giants when the temperature is going to be about five degrees.

“This isn’t going to be like the Seattle game for Green Bay. I don’t see things playing out like that (a 42-20 Green Bay victory) at all. This is going to be a conservative game played in extremely cold weather.

“I’m not a big (Giants coach) Tom Coughlin guy, but you can’t argue with the way the Giants have been playing.”

The Packers being favored by seven seems like the right number. Professional bettors would instantly grab 7 ½ if they liked the Giants, or 6 ½ if the Packers were their inclination.

“It won’t close 7 ½ if the weather is supposed to be the way it is,” Seba said. “There’s more of a chance it would close 6 ½.”

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