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Sharps Speaking Out! Good Info for Bettors!
here is some good advice
DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
MANY SHARPS LICKING THEIR WOUNDS AFTER NFL UPSETS
Normally when you hear there have been some upsets in any sport, you can draw a firm conclusion that professional wagerers in Las Vegas just made a killing, while the general public just lost big.
You regular readers know that by now. It's almost a universal truth in all sports. Last weekend in the NFL playoffs, something amazing happened. Many professional wagerers suffered their worst weekends of the entire year. For some, it was the worst in a few years.
THE KEYS TO THE CRASH
The sharps know that bye teams have historically fared well, particularly in terms of straight up victories since the current format was instituted back in 1990.
The sharps know that using two-team teasers that cross both the 7 and the 3 have a winning history in football.
Seeing that in combination was just too good to resist!
By now you know that the Dallas Cowboys were the first NFC #1 seed to lose outright in this new format. They were minus 7.5 most of the week, which means you could tease them down to -1.5 very easily. The number one is relatively dead in football, so you were basically asking a 17-0 situation to go to 18-0 by putting the Cowboys in teasers.
The Indianapolis Colts were also a popular teaser pick early in the week. Even though the closing line on that game was at 10 or higher, the number sat at 8.5 a few days earlier. Teaser players jumped all over that, and were part of the surge that drove the line higher in the first place. The sportsbooks HATED having so much exposure on the teasers, and lifted Indy out of range.
Amazingly, Green Bay was also in the strike zone in their game with Seattle. On some NFL Sundays during the regular season, it can be hard to find more than a few top notch nominees that cross the magic numbers. Here, with just four games on the schedule, THREE made a lot of sense.
And, they weren't just crossing the magic numbers. They were BYE TEAMS with GREAT QUARTERBACKS playing AT HOME that were crossing the magic numbers. The sharps went crazy with teasers based on the historical precedents.
Most everyone who knew anything about value betting in football had:
Green Bay teased with Indy
Green Bay teased with Dallas
Indy teased with Dallas
The favorites only had to win by a field goal or more for those to go 3-0. If one team failed, you still had a good shot that the other two would win comfortably, yielding a 2-1 worst case scenario.
Once the scores were in the books, disaster had happened for the sharps, while the sports books were rejoicing. All three went down because Indianapolis and Dallas lost outright. Both were in position to salvage late victories. Neither could do it.
Normally it's the public that gets "teased" with these particular propositions. This week, it was the sharps!
Compounding the weekend woes for many sharps:
A good percentage talked themselves into Seattle plus the points at Green Bay. There was a perception that the Packers had played a soft schedule, and would have trouble winning big against a much more experienced side. Green Bay was young except for their old quarterback. Seattle was the veteran side. There was kind of a bandwagon effect on Seattle on Saturday morning.
The Colts became a bandwagon team as well over the weekend. Though, this was mostly an anti-San Diego bet. Many sharps lost big on Tennessee (+) against San Diego the prior week, and felt they were robbed. If the Titans hadn't fumbled in scoring territory once, and missed a field goal, they would have been in position to win outright instead of losing by double digits.
Many sharps were sure the Chargers would fall to pieces like they had in the past on the road against good teams. Normally a big dog winning is good news for the sharps. In this game, they were as stunned as anybody.
Dallas was a popular last second bet when the game line moved down to -7. I know some guys who bought down to -6.5 and laid some extra juice. Others laid the TD once the hook had been removed from -7.5. The news that Terrell Owens was moving well inspired these guys to step in.
This was a case of the public properly ignoring injury news and betting on the dog, while the sharps overweighted the good news and laid the points. This is also something you almost never see in Vegas.
It wasn't a total disaster because most sharps hit Jacksonville Saturday Night, and won the total at whatever number they played. Some hit a middle when the game landed over the opener in the high 40's but Under the 51.5 or 52 that was available at various times. New England won 31-20. When that score was in the books, the sharps had basically gone 2-1 on their bets, and had the Green Bay part of their teasers in the books. They had NO IDEA what was about to hit them!
I've heard some very interesting discussions about the NY Giants/Green Bay game in particular. In the AFC, everyone's hoping they'll get some injury news later in the week before they have to make a decision.
The lesson for everyone here is that even the very best sports gamblers in the world have the occasional horrible day. You've seen pro poker players on TV have bad stretches. Heck, you watched Peyton Manning and Tony Romo lose games they were expected to win easily, and they both had great regular seasons coming in. You just never know for sure what's going to happen in the world of sports.
You've got to learn how to find value.
You've got to learn how to best exploit that value.
You've got to stay humble when things are going well.
You've got to accept that bad days are going to happen.
I think professional wagerers are very good at number one, fantastic at number two (their true strength if you ask me), relatively mediocre at number three (humility isn't something you run across much in Vegas, because the humble people stay out of your way), and surprisingly disciplined about number four. They hate losing as much as anybody. They do a good job of getting through it with minimal damage (because they exploit value so well), and they come back to fight another day.
How do most squares stack up against that list?
Squares are pretty bad about finding value, because they tend to lay prices on big favorites they shouldn't be laying. It gets to them eventually even if it doesn't get to them right away. Best exploiting the value? Doesn't happen.
They see a line and they bet it. They don't shop around, or set up middles, or bet bigger at softer numbers like they should. Staying humble? There are no humble squares. There are squares who have busted out and are waiting for a chance to bet again. And, there are squares who are about to blow money because of overconfidence. One of the reasons so many squares bust out is because they get into a panic and chase in the middle of or right after a bad day.
Sharps aren't perfect, but their strengths in the right areas serve them well. Squares are bad at everything that matters. This is why casinos exist, and why so many are luxurious!
Do your best to think like a sharp. You won't win every day...but you'll win a lot more than you lose!
DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
MANY SHARPS LICKING THEIR WOUNDS AFTER NFL UPSETS
Normally when you hear there have been some upsets in any sport, you can draw a firm conclusion that professional wagerers in Las Vegas just made a killing, while the general public just lost big.
You regular readers know that by now. It's almost a universal truth in all sports. Last weekend in the NFL playoffs, something amazing happened. Many professional wagerers suffered their worst weekends of the entire year. For some, it was the worst in a few years.
THE KEYS TO THE CRASH
The sharps know that bye teams have historically fared well, particularly in terms of straight up victories since the current format was instituted back in 1990.
The sharps know that using two-team teasers that cross both the 7 and the 3 have a winning history in football.
Seeing that in combination was just too good to resist!
By now you know that the Dallas Cowboys were the first NFC #1 seed to lose outright in this new format. They were minus 7.5 most of the week, which means you could tease them down to -1.5 very easily. The number one is relatively dead in football, so you were basically asking a 17-0 situation to go to 18-0 by putting the Cowboys in teasers.
The Indianapolis Colts were also a popular teaser pick early in the week. Even though the closing line on that game was at 10 or higher, the number sat at 8.5 a few days earlier. Teaser players jumped all over that, and were part of the surge that drove the line higher in the first place. The sportsbooks HATED having so much exposure on the teasers, and lifted Indy out of range.
Amazingly, Green Bay was also in the strike zone in their game with Seattle. On some NFL Sundays during the regular season, it can be hard to find more than a few top notch nominees that cross the magic numbers. Here, with just four games on the schedule, THREE made a lot of sense.
And, they weren't just crossing the magic numbers. They were BYE TEAMS with GREAT QUARTERBACKS playing AT HOME that were crossing the magic numbers. The sharps went crazy with teasers based on the historical precedents.
Most everyone who knew anything about value betting in football had:
Green Bay teased with Indy
Green Bay teased with Dallas
Indy teased with Dallas
The favorites only had to win by a field goal or more for those to go 3-0. If one team failed, you still had a good shot that the other two would win comfortably, yielding a 2-1 worst case scenario.
Once the scores were in the books, disaster had happened for the sharps, while the sports books were rejoicing. All three went down because Indianapolis and Dallas lost outright. Both were in position to salvage late victories. Neither could do it.
Normally it's the public that gets "teased" with these particular propositions. This week, it was the sharps!
Compounding the weekend woes for many sharps:
A good percentage talked themselves into Seattle plus the points at Green Bay. There was a perception that the Packers had played a soft schedule, and would have trouble winning big against a much more experienced side. Green Bay was young except for their old quarterback. Seattle was the veteran side. There was kind of a bandwagon effect on Seattle on Saturday morning.
The Colts became a bandwagon team as well over the weekend. Though, this was mostly an anti-San Diego bet. Many sharps lost big on Tennessee (+) against San Diego the prior week, and felt they were robbed. If the Titans hadn't fumbled in scoring territory once, and missed a field goal, they would have been in position to win outright instead of losing by double digits.
Many sharps were sure the Chargers would fall to pieces like they had in the past on the road against good teams. Normally a big dog winning is good news for the sharps. In this game, they were as stunned as anybody.
Dallas was a popular last second bet when the game line moved down to -7. I know some guys who bought down to -6.5 and laid some extra juice. Others laid the TD once the hook had been removed from -7.5. The news that Terrell Owens was moving well inspired these guys to step in.
This was a case of the public properly ignoring injury news and betting on the dog, while the sharps overweighted the good news and laid the points. This is also something you almost never see in Vegas.
It wasn't a total disaster because most sharps hit Jacksonville Saturday Night, and won the total at whatever number they played. Some hit a middle when the game landed over the opener in the high 40's but Under the 51.5 or 52 that was available at various times. New England won 31-20. When that score was in the books, the sharps had basically gone 2-1 on their bets, and had the Green Bay part of their teasers in the books. They had NO IDEA what was about to hit them!
I've heard some very interesting discussions about the NY Giants/Green Bay game in particular. In the AFC, everyone's hoping they'll get some injury news later in the week before they have to make a decision.
The lesson for everyone here is that even the very best sports gamblers in the world have the occasional horrible day. You've seen pro poker players on TV have bad stretches. Heck, you watched Peyton Manning and Tony Romo lose games they were expected to win easily, and they both had great regular seasons coming in. You just never know for sure what's going to happen in the world of sports.
You've got to learn how to find value.
You've got to learn how to best exploit that value.
You've got to stay humble when things are going well.
You've got to accept that bad days are going to happen.
I think professional wagerers are very good at number one, fantastic at number two (their true strength if you ask me), relatively mediocre at number three (humility isn't something you run across much in Vegas, because the humble people stay out of your way), and surprisingly disciplined about number four. They hate losing as much as anybody. They do a good job of getting through it with minimal damage (because they exploit value so well), and they come back to fight another day.
How do most squares stack up against that list?
Squares are pretty bad about finding value, because they tend to lay prices on big favorites they shouldn't be laying. It gets to them eventually even if it doesn't get to them right away. Best exploiting the value? Doesn't happen.
They see a line and they bet it. They don't shop around, or set up middles, or bet bigger at softer numbers like they should. Staying humble? There are no humble squares. There are squares who have busted out and are waiting for a chance to bet again. And, there are squares who are about to blow money because of overconfidence. One of the reasons so many squares bust out is because they get into a panic and chase in the middle of or right after a bad day.
Sharps aren't perfect, but their strengths in the right areas serve them well. Squares are bad at everything that matters. This is why casinos exist, and why so many are luxurious!
Do your best to think like a sharp. You won't win every day...but you'll win a lot more than you lose!
NBA is a joke
PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !! 
NFL
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