Wednesday Trends and Indexes 01/16

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Wednesday, January 16

Good Luck on day #16 of 2008!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

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[pm530]

Six-pack for Wednesday

Some thoughts related to the '62 New York Mets.......

-- '62 Mets were 40-120, scoring 617 runs., giving up 948; they were outscored by average of over two runs a game.

-- They drew 922,530 fans that year (11,532/game) which was 6th out of 10 NL teams. Teams draw better now.

-- Mets used 14 different starting pitchers, who combined to toss 43 complete games; in all of major leagues in 2007, there were 112 complete games, 48 in NL, 64 in AL.

-- Some famous guys played for '62 Mets: Ashburn-Bell-Hodges-Zimmer-Craig (somehow won 10 games on mound) but they were all pretty much washed up by then.

-- One pitcher, Craig Anderson, was 3-17, with four saves, two CGs; somehow, he allowed 30 unearned runs in 131.1 IP, a really high amount of unearned runs.

-- Jim Hickman was OF for '62 Mets; eight years later, his hit in All-Star game, while a Cub, resulted in the famous Rose-Fosse collision at home plate.

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[pm530]

Wednesday's List of 13: Random thoughts on a cold night

13) Potential ugly situation at West Virginia, where it looks as if Rich Rodriguez may have shredded all the information for the West Virginia football team........

12) I mean, everything, so new staff will have no information as far as the off-season weight training, kids' grades, files on personnel.......if Rodriguez thinks they're going to settle his $4M lawsuit now, he's probably mistaken. People are mad.

11) What we need, then, is Michigan-West Virginia bowl in next year or two, while these kids at WVa are still in school.

10) In the NBA, Utah Jazz (22-17) are currently 9th in western conference, out of playoffs, while Indiana Pacers (17-22) are in 8th in east, in the playoffs. West is still dominant.

9) Pacman Jones may go down in history as dumbest person ever, if it is true he punched a female lawyer in strip club late on night of January 3rd. This is incredible on many levels......

8) First of all, how does this guy still go to strip clubs? He is on probation from his very lucrative job, which he needs to be reinstated to (this won't help)............he needs to keep his nose clean (this won't help).........and then he punches, of all people, a lawyer (why was a female lawyer in a strip club?)

7) Toronto Raptors' Jamario Moon was playing here in CBA, in total obscurity, two years ago; now, he is going to be in the Slam Dunk contest All-Star weekend in New Orleans. A terrific story for Moon, who didn't play at a 4-year college, but at some junior college in Mississippi.

6) U of Buffalo football coach Turner Gill re-upped for couple years, in wake of his not getting Nebraska job. Gill was a QB, and a very good one, for the Cornhuskers.

5) Michigan QB Ryan Mallett transferred to Arkansas, so it looks like Bobby Petrino has his QB for '09; it be fun to see if Petrino will still be coach there when Mallett graduates four years from now-- odds are against it.

4) Weird stat; San Jose Sharks are 16-3-3 on road, just terrific record, but they're only 9-9-4 at home in the Shark Tank.

3) Tampa Rays' radiocaster Andy Freed, who is very good, is staying in Florida, rather than joining Mets' radio booth. We get to hear Freed on our summer trips to Florida- he must like Tampa an awful lot, since he passed up chance to work in a huge market for a winning team.

2) Kentucky has used 12 different starting lineups this year.

1) Mississippi State has shot blocker named Jarvis Varnardo who has an astounding 20 blocked shots in last two games, vs Georgia, Kentucky. Bulldogs are tremendous on defense. Varnado had triple-double vs Kentucky (pts-reb-blocks).

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Sunday, January 20
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SAN DIEGO (13 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (17 - 0) - 1/20/2008, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 116-87 ATS (+20.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 52-29 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN DIEGO is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (12 - 6) at GREEN BAY (14 - 3) - 1/20/2008, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
GREEN BAY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games this season.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games this season.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
NY GIANTS are 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
NY GIANTS are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


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Sunday, January 20
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AFC Championship Game
TV: CBS
San Diego at New England, 3:00 ET


San Diego:
21-3 ATS off 5+ ATS wins
7-1 ATS off BB wins

New England:
1-6 ATS after winning 8+ of their last 10 games
1-7 ATS off a SU home win / ATS loss

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NFC Championship Game
TV: FOX
NY Giants at Green Bay, 6:30 ET


NY Giants:
7-1 ATS away vs. conference opponents
6-0 ATS revenging a loss by 14+ points

Green Bay:
8-1 Over off BB wins
7-1 Over after scoring 30+ points

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


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Tips and Trends
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Sunday, January 20

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (CBS | 3 PM ET)

This is a rematch of a Week 2 matchup at New England, which the Patriots won 38-14. That game was played with some major revenge by the home team, who was accused of stealing signals the week before against the Jets. Randy Moss had a big game for the Pats with 8 catches for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns while Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson was limited to 43 yards on 18 carries. Neither player was effective last week, with Tomlinson nursing a knee injury that will likely keep him from playing at 100 percent. EDGE: PATRIOTS
San Diego Pro Bowl CB Antonio Cromartie did not play in the 1st meeting, as he did not see action until Week 3 at Green Bay. Cromartie played a key role in Sunday's win at Indy and picked off Peyton Manning 4 times in 2 meetings. He led the NFL in interceptions with 10 and will likely be assigned the task of checking Moss in the AFC Championship. SLIGHT EDGE: CHARGERS
Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after starting the season on a 9-1 ATS run.
Chargers are 8-0 SU & ATS in their last 8 games.
Chargers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. AFC opponents.
The OVER is 11-2-2 in San Diego's last 15 road games.
The OVER is 16-6-1 in New England's last 23 game overall.
The OVER is 8-3-1 in New England's last 12 games on field turf.
The UNDER is 9-2-1 in New England's last 12 home playoff games.


New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (FOX | 6:30 PM ET)

These teams also met in Week 2 of the regular season before Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had fully implemented his scheme. The Packers rolled to an easy 35-13 victory at New York behind 3 touchdown passes from Brett Favre. The Giants were led by Derrick Ward's 90 rushing yards and Jeremy Shockey's 5 catches for 60 yards. Both Ward and Shockey are out of the playoffs with injuries, but the team has had little trouble replacing them. SLIGHT EDGE: PACKERS
Packers RB Ryan Grant was 5th on New York's depth chart in the preseason behind Ward, Brandon Jacobs, Reuben Droughns and Ahmad Bradshaw. Grant was then acquired by Green Bay from the Giants for a 6th-round draft pick before another team could claim him on waivers. Even though he fumbled twice against the Seahawks, Grant's 201 rushing yards clearly set the tone for the rest of the team's win. He will likely be the key figure again at frigid Lambeau Field on Sunday in what could very well be a ball-control game. EDGE: PACKERS
Giants QB Eli Manning has played well in the last 3 games, throwing 8 touchdowns with just 1 interception. However, all 3 of those games were played in good weather conditions while the temperature in Sunday's game might not even reach double digits. EDGE: PACKERS
Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
Giants have won 9 straight on the road, going 8-1 ATS in those games.
Giants are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. NFC opponents.
The UNDER is 8-1 in New York's last 9 road games.
The OVER is 13-3 in Green Bay's last 16 games overall.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Recent Trends

NFL


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NFL Recent Trends
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Sunday, January 20

San Diego (13-5) at New England (17-0)

San Diego:
SD are 43-20-2 ATS in their last 65 games overall.
SD are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 vs. AFC.

New England:
Under is 9-2-1 in NE last 12 playoff home games.
Over is 16-6-1 in NE last 23 games overall.
Over is 8-3-1 in NE last 12 games on field turf.

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N.Y. Giants (12-6) at Green Bay (14-3)

N.Y. Giants:
Under is 8-1 in NYG last 9 road games.

Green Bay:
GB are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Over is 13-3 in GB last 16 games overall.
GB are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.

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[pm530]

National Football League – In Depth Trends

NFL


Sunday, January 20

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NFL In Depth Trends
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Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher.
Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

Trends - San Diego at New England

ATS Trends

San Diego
Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chargers are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chargers are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.
Chargers are 46-15-2 ATS in their last 63 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chargers are 27-10-2 ATS in their last 39 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 43-20-2 ATS in their last 65 games overall.
Chargers are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 vs. AFC.
Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

New England
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Championships games.
Patriots are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff home games.
Patriots are 44-19-2 ATS in their last 65 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games in January.
Patriots are 41-20-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.


O/U Trends

San Diego
Over is 4-0-1 in Chargers last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0-2 in Chargers last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-1-2 in Chargers last 9 road games.
Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games in January.
Over is 5-1-1 in Chargers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1-1 in Chargers last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Chargers last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Over is 6-2 in Chargers last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 9-3-2 in Chargers last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

New England
Over is 5-1-1 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 9-2-1 in Patriots last 12 playoff home games.
Over is 10-3-1 in Patriots last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Over is 9-3-1 in Patriots last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 9-3-1 in Patriots last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 19-7-1 in Patriots last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 games as a home favorite.
Over is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 games on field turf.
Over is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 home games.
Under is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 16-6-1 in Patriots last 23 games overall.
Over is 13-5-1 in Patriots last 19 games as a favorite.
Over is 15-6-1 in Patriots last 22 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 12-5-1 in Patriots last 18 playoff games.
Under is 9-4 in Patriots last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.


Head to Head
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New England.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

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Trends - N.Y. Giants at Green Bay

ATS Trends

N.Y. Giants
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
Giants are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff road games.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Giants are 7-16-3 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Giants are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Green Bay
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Packers are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win.
Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Packers are 14-4-2 ATS in their last 20 vs. NFC.
Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Packers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


O/U Trends

N.Y. Giants
Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games in January.
Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 playoff games.
Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC.
Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 road games.
Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games overall.

Green Bay
Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games as a home favorite.
Over is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games on grass.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 home games.
Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games as a favorite.
Over is 7-0 in Packers last 7 vs. NFC.
Over is 11-1 in Packers last 12 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 13-3 in Packers last 16 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Packers last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


Head to Head
Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

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[pm530]

National Football League – 10 Trends

NFL


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NFL – 10 Trends
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10 NFL trends that might matter this weekend

When it comes to handicapping trends and against the spread (ATS) statistics, you either love ‘em or hate ‘em. Here’s a list of compelling tidbits for you number nerds out there.

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-14, 47 ½)
Sunday Jan. 20, 3 p.m. ET

San Diego is 14-3-1 against the number in its last 18 games as an underdog
- San Diego hasn’t been dogged since dropping a 24-17 decision at Jacksonville as a three-point favorite in Week 11. The week before that, the Chargers downed the Colts 23-21 as 3 ½-point favorites.

San Diego is riding an 8-0 streak both straight up and ATS
- Looking back, San Diego’s slow start out of the gate makes a lot more sense. The Chargers were still getting used to Norv Turner and they get a pass for two of those losses (at Green Bay and at New England). Since then they’ve been a lot more like last year’s dominant 14-2 team.

San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog of 10 ½ points or greater
- Unfamiliar territory for San Diego bettors here, so take this one with a grain of salt. The Chargers haven’t been this big of an underdog since the 2000 season.

New England has dropped six of its last seven games ATS
-The public perception police will be banging on my door if I keep this up, but you can’t ignore the impact of the media’s Patriots mania on New England’s pointspreads. This is the best team I’ve ever seen. However, that doesn’t mean the Pats can be two touchdowns better than every other club in the league every single Sunday. Everybody wants to be the team that beats the Pats so they’re getting everyone’s best game right now with some awfully big spreads to cover.

Six of the last eight meetings between New England and San Diego have played over the total
- San Diego’s injury status might be the difference here. If Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates are all healthy enough to play, the Chargers should be able to put some points on the board. And you know the Pats won’t be held down.


New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7, 42)
Sunday Jan. 20, 6:30 p.m. ET

New York is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a winning home record
- I love New York sports fans – as long as their team’s winning. You have to respect their passion and intensity, but the ruthless fans at Giant Stadium are part of the reason why this team is so good away from home.

New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six January games
- The Giants have won January games in sunny Tampa Bay and Dallas this year and beat the Eagles in Philadelphia last year. It was 53 degrees in Philly for that one. They might get a real taste of winter football at Lambeau this week.

Green Bay is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games played on grass
-Ryan Grant is great at making one cut to the weak side and pointing his shoulders straight downhill to take would-be tacklers for a ride. Green Bay’s nasty defense is made for a grass surface too.

Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games
- Years ago you won’t even consider betting against the Pack at Lambeau once November hit. You’ll hear that rule of thumb a lot more now that they have a running game again.

Green Bay has played over in 13 of its last 16 games overall
- I didn’t think Brett Favre had it in him to protect the ball and take check-downs instead of launching bombs into triple coverage like he did last year and pretty much every year before that. But I love Green Bay’s play-calling now. Favre’s seeing results and that’s enough to keep him happy.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Mismatches

NFL


Sunday, January 20


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NFL mismatches: Where to find the edge in Sunday's games
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San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-14, 47 ½)

Chargers’ receiving corps vs. Patriots’ linebackers

If the Patriots have one weakness it’s their aging linebacker corps. It has had problems covering quick receivers as the season wore on, with the Eagles’ Brian Westbrook and the Giants’ Plaxico Burress enjoying successful games.

Tedy Bruschi, Junior Seau and strong safety Rodney Harrison are especially vulnerable in coverage situations, and they are not comfortable chasing people. The average age of that trio is 35.6 years, and it’s been a bruising 17-game season for them.

The Chargers have several options to take advantage of that weakness. LaDanian Tomlinson, who is struggling with a knee injury, will certainly wear down Seau and Bruschi if he is fit enough to play.

If not, they still have Michael Turner and Darren Sproles, who are capable of causing the Pats problems.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady vs. Chargers’ pass defense

This mismatch isn’t because of any major weakness in San Diego’s pass defense, it’s just because Tom Brady is that good. The Pats quarterback keeps getting better and his record in the postseason makes for impressive reading.

Brady has won 15 of 13 career playoff games, completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 3,479 yards and 23 touchdowns. In last week’s win over Jacksonville, he was close to perfect. He set an NFL postseason record with his 92.9 completion percentage, throwing for 262 yards and three TDs.

San Diego’s pass defense was 13th overall in the regular season, allowing 212.7 yards per game. Last week against the Colts, it gave up 402 passing yards and three touchdowns to quarterback Peyton Manning.


New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7, 41 ½)

Giants’ pass rush vs. Packers’ offensive line

In the second half of last Sunday’s game against Dallas, the Giants had Tony Romo on the ground after almost every play he made. They’ll be looking to do the same to veteran quarterback Brett Favre this week, and it’s hard to see the Packers stopping defensive ends Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan.

That duo has combined for 83 tackles and 23 sacks this season, as part of a Giants’ defense that led the league in sacks (52). They had two sacks against Tony Romo last week, and were consistently getting close enough to tackle him after the pass.

During the regular season, Favre got sacked 15 times in his 16 games. He was sacked just once in Green Bay’s previous meeting with New York this season (Sept. 16), but Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin still called it a “shoddy” performance from his offensive line.

Packers quarterback Brett Favre vs. Giants’ pass defense

Even if the Giants pass rush gets after Favre, he’s still going to have a major impact on this game. The veteran has enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career, and produced 173 yards and three touchdowns against Seattle last week.

Favre joined Joe Montana as the only NFL passer with 5,000 postseason yards and he continued his streak of 17 consecutive playoff games with a touchdown pass. He also recorded his highest passer rating in 21 postseason games last week (137.6).

The Giants ranked 12th in the league against the pass this season, giving up 212.7 yards per game in the air. They allowed Favre to throw for 286 yards and three touchdowns in a 35-13 Green Bay win on Sept. 16.

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[pm530]

NFL – Reports

NFL
REPORTS



for Sunday’s games (January 20)

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Reports: AFC, NFC Championship games
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AFC

Injured Chargers limp to Foxborough after Rivers, Tomlinson are injured

San Diego Chargers (13-5) at New England Patriots (17-0)

The last time the San Diego Chargers went to New England, they had Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and a healthy Antonio Gates.

They lost anyway, 38-14.

The Chargers may have beaten the Indianapolis Colts 28-24 on Sunday without their top players, but they'll have a hard time keeping up with the unbeaten Patriots in the AFC title game if they're still out. The same thing seems true in the NFC, where the New York Giants will head to Green Bay after upsetting Dallas 21-17 with a banged-up secondary missing its top three cornerbacks.

Back on Sept. 16, a Sunday night game in the second week of the season, the Patriots were just getting started on their 16-0 run and blowing away anyone in their path. Their margin of victory dropped markedly in the second half of the season, but New England will still be 17-0 when it plays host to the Chargers next Sunday.

''A lot's happened since then,'' Patriots coach Bill Belichick said after the Chargers beat the Colts to qualify for a trip to Foxborough and the AFC title game. ''We'll definitely start all over on the preparations. It's like it's a new team.''

The first question for San Diego is the health of Rivers and Tomlinson, its starting quarterback and star running back, who was the 2006 NFL MVP. Both injured their knees against the Colts and their status isn't yet known for the conference championship. Gates played with a toe injury, but clearly wasn't at full speed.

Both Rivers and Tomlinson said they hope to play. Coach Norv Turner said they both were questionable.

Even if they do take the field, the Chargers (13-5) face a daunting task.

Tom Brady did to Jacksonville in Saturday night's 31-20 win what Peyton Manning did to the Chargers early in Sunday's game, completing his first 13 passes, most of them underneath, to help Indianapolis take a 7-0 lead. But after Marvin Harrison, coming back from injury, fumbled one of his completions to give the Chargers life, Manning started taking more chances and had less success deep.

San Diego managed to beat the Colts with subs - good ones in Michael Turner and Darren Sproles at running back, plus journeyman Billy Volek at quarterback leading the winning TD drive. Turner and Sproles together equal Tomlinson, but Volek is not going to beat the Patriots. Rivers will have a hard time doing that if he's ready.

If the Chargers, who opened as a 15-point underdog, are to have a chance, they'll have to get the kind of pressure they got on Manning on critical drives late in the game. That was most notable when Shawne Merriman got around rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh to force an incomplete pass on fourth down inside the San Diego 10-yard line with just over 2 minutes left.

Merriman is certainly one of the NFL's best pass rushers and Shaun Phillips is formidable from the other side.

So Brady may not have as much time as he had Saturday night in completing 26 of 28 passes, an NFL playoff-record 92.9 percent. But the Chargers don't cover as well as Jacksonville, and Randy Moss is unlikely to be limited to one catch for 14 yards, as he was by the Jaguars.

Now we wait to see if Rivers and Tomlinson will even play.

Belichick thinks they will.

''We're prepared for everybody. As we saw today, any number of players could be in the game,'' he said. ''If they're on the 53-man roster, we'll prepare for everybody.''

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NFC

New York Giants (12-6) at Green Bay (14-3)

Like the Patriots and Chargers, these two played in the second week. That one was at Giants Stadium and the Packers won 35-13 before New York understood the defense installed by Steve Spagnuolo, its new coordinator.

That defense, with its stunts and twists, confused and harassed Tony Romo enough in the second half against Dallas on Sunday to keep him from exploiting a secondary without Sam Madison, Aaron Ross and Kevin Dockery, its three top cornerbacks for most of the season.

The Packers opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite, which seems a little low.

Consider that Eli Manning's revival - eight touchdown passes, just one interception and passer ratings of well over 100 in his last three games - all came in good weather. And he has attributed his problems in the four previous games to wind and cold.

Attention Eli: The long-range forecast for next Sunday in Green Bay is a high of 4 degrees. Yes, Brett Favre, like Manning, is a southerner - his hometown of Kiln, Miss., and Manning's New Orleans are about 60 miles apart.

But Favre has played in Green Bay for 16 seasons and thrives there. Had he been forced to go to Dallas, he would have been returning to a place where he is 0-9 as a starter.

If it turns into a ground battle, there's the matchup that probably will be second only to Brett-Eli in the pregame hype: Ryan Grant, who rushed for 201 yards against in the 42-20 win over Seattle in the snow on Saturday vs. the Giants running backs.

Grant, who played high school football less than 20 miles from Giants Stadium, was signed as an undrafted free agent from Notre Dame by New York in 2005. He spent that year on the practice squad, then last season on injured reserve.

He was impressive in preseason but was fifth on the depth chart behind Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Reuben Droughns and Ahmad Bradshaw. The Packers, knowing he would be cut, gave the Giants a sixth-round pick for him before some other team could claim him on waivers.

Now Grant stands between his old teammates and the Super Bowl.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Line Report

NFL
Line Report


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NFL – Line Report for games on January 20
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NFL title games opening line report

It doesn’t matter that LaDainian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers probably are going to play, or that frigid weather is expected in Green Bay. Bookmakers are going to make you pay a high price if you want to lay the favorites.

New England opened as high as -15 hosting San Diego in the AFC championship game, while the Packers are -7 hosting the New York Giants.

“You always want to be on the high side in these championship games,” said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, in expressing the house’s point of view.

“But my personal opinion is I think these lines are inflated. It’s a lot of points to be laying into two hot teams.”

The Chargers have won and covered in their last eight games. They beat Indianapolis on the road as a double-digit underdog, despite Tomlinson and Rivers going down with knee injuries and Gates hampered by a dislocated toe.

The Giants have won nine road games in a row, despite suffering massive injuries the past few weeks, including losing tight end Jeremy Shockey for the season.

The Patriots’ number has settled in at -14. The total has come down, too, to from as high as 51 points to 47 ½. The early weather forecast for Sunday’s day game at Foxboro is 15 degrees, no snow and some wind.

LVSC’s recommended number on the Chargers-Patriots matchup was New England -14 with an ‘over/under’ of 50. This was factoring in Tomlinson and Rivers, both of whom are listed as “questionable.” Both probably will see action. The oddsmakers at LVSC consider Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates closer to doubtful than probable. Gates played on-and-off against the Colts.

The undefeated Patriots have failed to cover seven of their last nine matchups after beginning the season with eight straight covers. A combination of inflated lines, bad weather and the Patriots gearing for the postseason have factored in the team going 1-6 against the spread during their past seven games.

“The Patriots defense has looked vulnerable,” Seba said. “They haven’t looked like the Patriots of Week 8.”

Seba doesn’t anticipate the number rising. He said he would be surprised if the Patriots reached -14 ½ again, which they were on Sunday and Monday at some places.

“I think there’s more of a chance they close at 13 ½,” he said.

The Giants-Packers total also dropped within the first 24 hours since it was posted on Sunday. Some books opened the ‘over/under’ at 43 ½. The total currently is down to 41 ½ with an early forecast calling for 40 percent chance of snow with a high of 12 degrees for the night contest.

LVSC’s sent-out number on the game was Packers -7. Seba’s number was lower at -6. He believes the Giants are a take getting a touchdown.

“It’s too many points,” he said of the touchdown line. “The Giants winning nine straight road games is pretty impressive. I can see catching seven with the Giants when the temperature is going to be about five degrees.

“This isn’t going to be like the Seattle game for Green Bay. I don’t see things playing out like that (a 42-20 Green Bay victory) at all. This is going to be a conservative game played in extremely cold weather.

“I’m not a big (Giants coach) Tom Coughlin guy, but you can’t argue with the way the Giants have been playing.”

The Packers being favored by seven seems like the right number. Professional bettors would instantly grab 7 ½ if they liked the Giants, or 6 ½ if the Packers were their inclination.

“It won’t close 7 ½ if the weather is supposed to be the way it is,” Seba said. “There’s more of a chance it would close 6 ½.”

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[pm530]

National Football League – Bettors Need to Know

NFL
What bettors need to know…….


Sunday, January 20

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What bettors need to know: Giants at Packers
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New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7, 42)

Little brother comes up big

Giants quarterback Eli Manning stepped out of his big brother’s shadow on Sunday. While Peyton and the Colts were laboring to a 28-24 defeat to San Diego, younger brother Eli was leading his team to the NFC Championship game.

The Giants’ Manning threw for 163 yards and two touchdowns in a 21-17 win over No.1 seed Dallas. He led a game-changing 71-yard drive at the end of the first half, tying the score at 14-14 before the break.

“That's the man who won this game for us," Antonio Pierce said. Amani Toomer added: “Eli was just outstanding,"

Brandon Jacobs reserved the most praise, saying: “He's the best quarterback I've ever played with. I love the guy to death. I don't give a damn what anyone says about it. I don't know if he silenced the critics. In this game, you're always going to have critics.”

Youthful pack

The Green Bay Packers were the NFL’s youngest team at the start of the season, with an average age of 26 years and 89 days. Heading into Saturday’s playoff game against Seattle, veteran cornerback Al Harris said he thought Green Bay’s inexperience might count against them. Man, was he wrong.

Greg Jennings, 24, caught two touchdown passes and had a total of six receptions for 71 yards. Strong safety Atari Bigby, 26, had seven tackles and forced an important fumble early on. Defensive end Cullen Jenkins, 26, had one and a half sacks and was within inches of sacking Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck on two other occasions.

And probably the most impressive show of character was from 25-year-old tailback Ryan Grant. He had two early fumbles that helped Seattle jump out to a 14-0 lead, but recovered his composure to run for 201 yards.

Of course the team’s veteran leader, Brett Favre, was also impressive. He threw for three touchdowns and 173 yards and his 137.6 passer rating was his best in 21 career postseason games.

Depleted secondary steps up

The Cowboys had about four minutes to rescue their season in the fourth quarter on Sunday, but the Giants’ defense came out on top. The defense’s performance is even more impressive when you consider the secondary was without several starting players because of injury.

Reserve defensive back R.W. McQuarters, along with his fellow reserve cornerbacks Corey Webster and Geoffrey Pope, were pressed into service due to the injury problems. They didn’t disappoint, and McQuarters produced the game-ending interception with nine seconds left on the clock, as Dallas pressed for the victory.

“It was a great win for us,” coach Tom Coughlin told the New York Times. “Our defensive guys were on the field for the majority of the time and had to make some big-time stops. And R. W., two weeks in a row now, played super in the secondary.”

The Giants two main injury concerns in the secondary are starting cornerback Sam Madison and his rookie counterpart Aaron Ross. Madison is struggling with a strained abdominal muscle, while Ross left Sunday’s game in the third quarter with shoulder injury.

Both are listed as doubtful for this week’s contest.

Road warriors

The Giants travel to Lambeau on an NFL-record nine-game road winning streak. With Sunday’s win over Dallas they became only the 10th team in history to win their first two playoff games on the road. Unfortunately for New York, only one of the nine went on to win the Super Bowl.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is an NFC-best 8-1 at home this season. It covered the spread in all but one of those eight wins.

Head to head

These teams have already met once this season, with the Packers coming out 35-12 victors at Giants Stadium on Sept. 16. Overall, Green Bay has won five of its last six against the Giants, covering the spread in three of the last four.

The Packers are 13-3-1 ATS for the season, compared to the Giants 12-6-0 mark

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Wednesday, January 16

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Today's NBA analysis

Hot Teams
-- Warriors won last three games, scoring 109 ppg.
-- Bobcats are 4-0-1 vs spread in last five games.
-- Kings won three of last four games, covered five of seven. Raptors won three of their last four games.
-- Trailblazers won 18 of their last 20 games.
-- Knicks won last two games, are 4-3 vs spread in last seven.
-- Hawks won three of their last four games.
-- Hornets covered eleven of their last thirteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Pacers lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Bulls covered one of their last six games. Miami lost ten in a row (1-9 vs spread).
-- Magic lost five of their last seven games.
-- Celtics lost three of their last four games.
-- Nets lost three of their last four games.
-- Bucks lost last three games, but covered five of last six.
-- Sonics lost last seven games (2-5 vs spread).

Previous meetings this season
-- Pacers (+8.5) lost 106-101 in Oakland three days ago.
-- Charlotte is 0-3 vs Orlando this year, losing by 13-16-9 pts.
-- Knicks are 2-0 vs Nets this season, winning by 7-8 points.
-- Home side won both Atlanta-Milwaukee games this year.
-- Hornets are 2-0 vs Seattle this season, winning by 3-14 pts.

Totals
-- Last four Warrior games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-2 in Chicago's last eight games.
-- Over is 7-3 in Charlotte's last ten games.
-- Over is 6-2 in last eight Sacramento games.
-- Last six Celtic games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2 in Nets' last five home games.
-- Three of last four Milwaukee games went over total.
-- Under is 6-1 in last seven Seattle games.

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Tips & Trends

NBA


Wednesday, January 16

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Tips and Trends
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Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers (7 PM ET)

The UNDER is 12-5-1 in Golden State's last 18 road games.
The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
Get Hoops Info Worth Betting on NBA games in the Buzzer Beater!


Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat (ESPN2 | 7 PM ET)

Heat are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Bulls are 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
The OVER is 9-4 Miami's last 13 games vs. Central Division.


Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors (7 PM ET)

Raptors are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Wednesday games.
The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
The UNDER is 7-3 in Toronto's last 10 games vs. Pacific Division.
The UNDER is 9-4 in Toronto's last 13 home games.


Portland Trail Blazers at Boston Celtics (7:30 PM ET)

Trail Blazers are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
The OVER is 24-4 in Boston's last 28 games vs. Northwest Division.
The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Boston's last 17 home games.


New York Knicks at New Jersey Nets (7:30 PM ET)

Knicks are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. Atlantic Division.
Nets are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 home games.
Nets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.
The OVER is 8-0 in New York's 8 road games.

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