Reasons to take Jacksonville ML/Cover over the Patriots

[slappy's son]

Pittsburgh wasn't very good this year, and if not for the dumb play calling late in the game by Pittsburgh, Jax loses that game. Jax was VERY fortunate to win last week, and Brady & Company should be able to throw mid-to-high 30's on Jax. Jax cannot make any turn-overs against NE, for if they do, they will lose by more than 2 TDs. Jax will need to match score for score, and hope NE turns it over. If they fail to match score for score, or turn it over 1-2 times, NE wins by 21.

[aplous]

I dont like betting a dog unless I think they have a chance to win SU.......no one really thinks NE will lose SU do they?


PATRIOTS (-13) over Jaguars
According to Rule No. 10 of the Manifesto, you can't pick an underdog if you don't think they can win the game. So let's look at the numbers here.


• Belichick's playoff record in New England: 14-2
• Brady's playoff record at home: 6-0
• Belichick's record against Jack Del Rio: 3-0
• New England's lifetime record against Jacksonville: 7-1
• New England's 2007 regular season record: 16-0
• Number of '07 Patriots wins by 14-plus points: 11
• Record of '07 Jags after falling behind by more than seven points: 0-4

For anyone playing the "Jacksonville can control the clock and pressure Brady" card, didn't we see the Steelers drop 19 points on them in about five seconds last weekend once they started chucking the ball every down? What about the fact Jacksonville relies on its defensive line for pressure and isn't one of those Philly-type teams that blitzes from all angles -- if anything, the Jags are pretty predictable -- which makes them exactly the type of defense Brady chewed up and wore down this season. (Remember the Redskins game?) Also, who's covering Wes Welker on the Jags? Have we figured this out yet? Do you really think Randy Moss -- someone who always shows up for big games -- isn't coming out of Round 2 with one huge play? Hasn't Belichick always been able to shut down one-dimensional offenses? Do you feel even remotely confident in Garrard trying to match points with Brady if he's down by double digits in the fourth quarter?

Maybe the Pats can be beaten, but not by these guys. In fact, I'm insulted that you even think this might be close.

The Pick: New England 42, Jacksonville 15.

[Chado1]

I wouldnt touch this game either....could go either way...way too tough to call ATS...better options for this weekend IMO....

[Chado1]

I dont like betting a dog unless I think they have a chance to win SU.......no one really thinks NE will lose SU do they?


PATRIOTS (-13) over Jaguars
According to Rule No. 10 of the Manifesto, you can't pick an underdog if you don't think they can win the game. So let's look at the numbers here.


• Belichick's playoff record in New England: 14-2
• Brady's playoff record at home: 6-0
• Belichick's record against Jack Del Rio: 3-0
• New England's lifetime record against Jacksonville: 7-1
• New England's 2007 regular season record: 16-0
• Number of '07 Patriots wins by 14-plus points: 11
• Record of '07 Jags after falling behind by more than seven points: 0-4

For anyone playing the "Jacksonville can control the clock and pressure Brady" card, didn't we see the Steelers drop 19 points on them in about five seconds last weekend once they started chucking the ball every down? What about the fact Jacksonville relies on its defensive line for pressure and isn't one of those Philly-type teams that blitzes from all angles -- if anything, the Jags are pretty predictable -- which makes them exactly the type of defense Brady chewed up and wore down this season. (Remember the Redskins game?) Also, who's covering Wes Welker on the Jags? Have we figured this out yet? Do you really think Randy Moss -- someone who always shows up for big games -- isn't coming out of Round 2 with one huge play? Hasn't Belichick always been able to shut down one-dimensional offenses? Do you feel even remotely confident in Garrard trying to match points with Brady if he's down by double digits in the fourth quarter?

Maybe the Pats can be beaten, but not by these guys. In fact, I'm insulted that you even think this might be close.

The Pick: New England 42, Jacksonville 15.

Ya but the same can be said about the close win over the Eagles and Ravens...who would have thought they could have kept it close? There is no way of telling really in this one....

[harold_bush]

Here is the problem I see for Jax. Yes, they will run the ball, yes they will score. The problem is the defense. Jax's weaknes os defense is the pass D. Uh-oh. The two games that would scare me are the last two games they played against QBs that are on the same level as Brady (obviously nobody was this year), Brees and Peyton. Manning threw for 288 yards and 4 TDs, and Brees threw for 445 yards and 3 TDs.

I see the game close early, 14-10 Pats late into the 2nd quarter. Pats score a TD before the half putting them up 21-10. Some back and forth in the 2nd half, w/ a final score of 41-24 Pats.

That said, I'd love to see the Pats lose.

[harold_bush]

double post, sorry.

[aplous]

That writeup is from the Sports Guy on ESPN...who happens to be a HUUUUGE Chowd fan.

[harold_bush]

That writeup is from the Sports Guy on ESPN...who happens to be a HUUUUGE Chowd fan.

which write up, mine?

[Chado1]

Here is the problem I see for Jax. Yes, they will run the ball, yes they will score. The problem is the defense. Jax's weaknes os defense is the pass D. Uh-oh. The two games that would scare me are the last two games they played against QBs that are on the same level as Brady (obviously nobody was this year), Brees and Peyton. Manning threw for 288 yards and 4 TDs, and Brees threw for 445 yards and 3 TDs.

I see the game close early, 14-10 Pats late into the 2nd quarter. Pats score a TD before the half putting them up 21-10. Some back and forth in the 2nd half, w/ a final score of 41-24 Pats.

That said, I'd love to see the Pats lose.

Exaclty...flip a coin on this one ATS......

[GOLDENGREEK]

I think it can be argued the 2007 Patriots have the greatest offense in NFL history. Even at 16-0 the Patriots are not the greatest team. Not even close. They're defense is very suspect. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens would have beaten the 2007 Pats.

AS WOULD THE 85 BEARS AND SOME OF THE 49er superbowl teams

[aplous]

The one that I posted.....

[GOLDENGREEK]

Im leaning to 3 of the four favs right now -- GB and Dallas are locked in and im leaning to NE ( unfortunately )

[3ebRocks]

Take a hard look at the Pittsburgh game and you will see that Jax was very very very fortunate to beat a Pittsburgh team that New England had their way with. Also, give Bellichick an extra week to prepare for a one dimensional offense? If the weather is good (ie not windy) I think the Jags are in for a heap of trouble. Probably are either way. Jax is a good storyline and the nation has picked up on the whole underdog thing and I love Garrard, think he is a heck of a qb who doesnt get the credit he deserves. That being said, they are outclassed here. We all know Del Rio will keep it on the ground to keep Brady and Co. off the field. Problem is, Bellichick knows that also. In addition, if Jax tries to throw, they have to deal with a lock down corner on one side, a healthy perenial pro bowl safety and an older but way above average linebacking core. And Jax brings merely average receivers. Nothing more, nothing less. Lastly, Jax D is not and never was this season that good. And one of their great players is banged up. Another is suspended ( I think, could be wrong but I dont think so). New England will put up 35+ IMO. Can Jax put up 21? I bet not.