NFL Wildcard

[roccodean]

Good luck to all! I'll have my full write up tomorrow before gametime. Will also have a Sunday play. My math system has been good this year (39-22, 64%) so I'm going with it on Pitt.

1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units

Super System Play
1) Pittsburgh: My Super System has them as 2.3 point favorites.

1* Pitt +3 over Jax

[roccodean]

1* Pitt +3 over Jax
I don't think the Jags deserve to be a road favorite in this contest. The public is overreacting to the Jacksonville victory couple weeks ago in Pittsburgh. My math System has Pitt -2.3 and I think that's what the line should be. The Jags offense is good averaging 4.4 YPR and 7.45 YPPA. At Bye Week Picks we have a saying in the playoffs…True Colors. This means that in the playoffs teams and players true colors are exposed. I think Garrard is a solid QB but we will see his true colors this game against a Pitt D that only allow 89 YPG on the ground and 5.7 YPPA (1st in the NFL). The Jags defense is merely average allowing 4.2 YPPA (18th) and 6.7 YPPA (13th). The Steelers offense is very good averaging 4.24 YPR (7th) and 7.7 YPPA (3rd). There are 8 trends favoring the Steelers one of which is 29-6 ATS over the last 15 years. I like the Steelers in a 1* play as long as line is 2 or more.

[roccodean]

1* Tampa Bay -3 over N.Y. Giants
Tampa Bay is the most underrated football team in the league. They are in the top 10 in all significant statistical categories. Look at these amazing stats. They average 4.2 YPR (9th) and 7.3 YPPA (8th). Garcia is having a great year and will continue this as they battle an average Giant's D. Defensively, Tampa allows only 3.8 YPR (7th) and 6 YPPA (3rd). The Giants running game is strong averaging 4.6 YPR, but Eli is terrible passing for only 6.2 YPPA (27th) and a 55% completion rate (31st). Defensively, the Giants allow 3.8 YPR (9th) but their pass D allows 7 YPPA. My math system has the Bucs -3 so the line is right on the money. There are two strong long term trends favoring the Bucs one at 251-145 ATS over the last 25 years.

[Dat Boi E]

good luck tonight, Rocco! i like'em!