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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 05:49 AM

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

Week 17

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 30

Game 419-420: Buffalo at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.199; Philadelphia 138.979
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 14 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7 1/2); Over

Game 421-422: Carolina at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 126.150; Tampa Bay 129.977
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Over

Game 423-424: Cincinnati at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.905; Miami 125.210
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under

Game 425-426: Dallas at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 133.166; Washington 138.431
Dunkel Line: Washington by 7 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Washington by 9; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+9); Over

Game 427-428: Detroit at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 128.186; Green Bay 134.867
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Over

Game 429-430: Jacksonville at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 136.049; Houston 134.172
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 2; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7); Over

Game 431-432: New Orleans at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 129.938; Chicago 134.089
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4; 43
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2); Over

Game 433-434: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.931; Baltimore 128.869
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 40
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3 1/2); Over

Game 435-436: Seattle at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 129.879; Atlanta 124.985
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2 1/2); Over

Game 437-438: San Francisco at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 118.893; Cleveland 132.084
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 13 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 10; 40
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-10); Under

Game 439-440: Tennessee at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 133.692; Indianapolis 141.816
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 8; 42
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+6); Over

Game 441-442: Minnesota at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 130.055; Denver 131.131
Dunkel Line: Denver by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3); Over

Game 443-444: San Diego at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 140.930; Oakland 126.355
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 14 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7 1/2); Over

Game 445-446: St. Louis at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.971; Arizona 128.141
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 7; 52
Vegas Line: Arizona by 6; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-6); Over

Game 447-448: Kansas City at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 121.344; NY Jets 131.273
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 10; 37
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 5 1/2; 33 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-5 1/2); Over

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 05:50 AM

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

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Sunday, December 30
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BUFFALO (7 - 8) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 8) - 12/30/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (6 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (9 - 6) - 12/30/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 72-45 ATS (+22.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (6 - 9) at MIAMI (1 - 14) - 12/30/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (13 - 2) at WASHINGTON (8 - 7) - 12/30/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (7 - 8) at GREEN BAY (12 - 3) - 12/30/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
GREEN BAY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (11 - 4) at HOUSTON (7 - 8) - 12/30/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (7 - 8) at CHICAGO (6 - 9) - 12/30/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (10 - 5) at BALTIMORE (4 - 11) - 12/30/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (10 - 5) at ATLANTA (3 - 12) - 12/30/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 10) at CLEVELAND (9 - 6) - 12/30/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (9 - 6) at INDIANAPOLIS (13 - 2) - 12/30/2007, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (8 - 7) at DENVER (6 - 8) - 12/30/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (9 - 5) at OAKLAND (4 - 11) - 12/30/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 5-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (3 - 12) at ARIZONA (7 - 8) - 12/30/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-2 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 11) at NY JETS (3 - 12) - 12/30/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 05:51 AM

National Football League - Short Sheet

Week 17

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, December 30th

Buffalo at Philadelphia, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 5-1 Under off an Over
Philadelphia: 4-0 ATS off BB road wins

Carolina at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 1-5 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win
Tampa Bay: 14-3 ATS off a loss as a road favorite

Cincinnati at Miami, 1:00 EST
Cincinnati: 10-2 ATS off 4+ Unders
Miami: 2-10 ATS off a road loss

(TC) Dallas at Washington, 4:15 EST
Dallas: 12-4 Over in road games
Washington: 6-16 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Detroit at Green Bay, 1:00 EST
Detroit: 7-19 ATS away off a win by 6 or less points
Green Bay: 7-1 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 7-0 ATS off BB Overs
Houston: 0-6 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games

New Orleans at Chicago, 1:00 EST
New Orleans: 12-1 ATS away after allowing 175+ rushing yards
Chicago: 18-6 Over vs. conference opponents

(TC) Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 4:15 EST
Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS after scoring 35+ points
Baltimore: 6-0 ATS at home off a non-conference game

Seattle at Atlanta, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 0-8 ATS away off a win by 14+ points
Atlanta: 9-1 Under as a home favorite

San Francisco at Cleveland, 1:00 EST
San Francisco: 0-7 ATS away after allowing 300+ passing yards
Cleveland: 7-1 ATS as a favorite

(TC) Tennessee at Indianapolis, 8:15 EST NBC
Tennessee: 6-1 Under off a straight up win
Indianapolis: 7-1 ATS off 3+ wins

Minnesota at Denver, 4:15 EST
Minnesota: 18-34 ATS off a loss as a favorite
Denver: 9-1 ATS off BB games scoring 14 or less points

San Diego at Oakland, 4:15 EST
San Diego: 23-4 ATS off 4+ ATS wins
Oakland: 2-12 ATS in December

St. Louis at Arizona, 4:15 EST
St. Louis: 4-13 ATS off a loss by 14+ points
Arizona: 15-6 Over playing on artificial turf

(TC) Kansas City at NY Jets, 4:15 EST
Kansas City: 10-24 ATS vs. AFC East opponents
NY Jets: 9-2 ATS after scoring 14 or less points

** End of Regular Season **

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 05:54 AM

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up

Week 17

Week 17 NFL scoreboard

Very strange week looms ahead, as most of the playoff spots are already sewn up, so motivation and who-plays-how much is the big question of the week. More than most weeks, keeping your ears to the TV for late news Saturday night/Sunday will be very helpful in your handicapping efforts.

Sunday, December 30

Bills (7-8) @ Eagles (7-8) -- Philly showing spunk, grit as season ends; they're 5-2 in last seven games, losing 28-24 to Seattle and 16-13 to Giants (two playoff teams), but those losses were in last two home games (Eagles are 2-5 at home, 3-6 vs spread as a fave this year). Buffalo is 3-4 on road, 2-4 as road dog, with losses by 23-31-22-8 points- they've given up 174-291 rushing yards in last two games, losing last week after leading 14-0. In last four games Eagles ran for 144-141-134-184 yards, so Westbrook has to have big eyes here. Over is 6-3 in Eagles' last nine games.

Panthers (6-9) @ Tampa Bay (9-6) -- Bucs have playoff game next week, sat Garcia for lot of loss at 49ers last week, likely to do so again here. Panthers lost last three road games, by 13-14-31 pts, after winning first four on road; they're 2-2 last four games, had a tough home loss to Cowboys Saturday night. Carolina averaged just 2.7 yds/pass in first meeting, 20-7 home loss, as Tampa Bay outrushed them 189-99, and had 22-yard edge in field position. Gruden has already said he is preparing for Giants (unusual that Wild Card pairings are set early). Is under the play here?

Bengals (6-9) @ Dolphins (1-14) -- Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread the week after playing the Patriots, which Miami did last week-- Cincy is 1-6 on road, with only win 21-7, when they didn't score a TD. In last four games, Bengals scored 10-19-13-19 pts (five TDs on last 40 drives); they've played better at home in second half of season, but not on road, losing last away game to 49ers. Miami has six losses by exactly three points- they covered three of last four tries as underdog. Last five Bengal games stayed under the total, three of last four Miami games went over.

Cowboys (13-2) @ Redskins (8-7) -- Washington makes it into the playoffs with win vs arch-rival, who are locked into the top seed in NFC and could rest Romo (thumb)- Owens (ankle) is definitely out. Redskins won last three games, by 8-12-11 points; they lost 28-23 at Dallas six weeks ago (+11), despite Campbell's 34-55/361 passing game (Skins had 28 first downs). Spread is inflated due to Redskins' needing to win- keep in mind Collins is backup QB that has played well thus far (30-55/417, six TDs on 26 drives and two wins). Skins are 4-3 at home, with wins by 3-31-2-8 points.

Lions (7-8) @ Packers (12-3) -- Green Bay has home playoff game next week, unsure of how long Favre will play (backup Rodgers has injury issues, oddly enough). Pack had two punts blocked in loss last week, first defensive/special teams TDs they allowed all season. Despite snapping 6-game skid last week, Lions still have shot at first .500 season of Millen era- they lost 37-26 at home to Packers Thanksgiving Day (+3), in game where Favre was 31-41/ 381 passing. Pack sacked Kitna four times on Turkey Day. Over is 5-0-1 in last six Packer games, 5-0 in Detroit's last five.

Jaguars (10-5) @ Texans (7-8) -- Houston has a shot at first-ever .500 season, against Jaguar club that is in playoffs next week, so could be resting guys (they played well enough with backup QB Gray earlier, winning at Tampa, losing at Superdome). Jags won first meeting 37-17 in Week 6 (-7), outrushing Texans 244-61 in a game that was just 10-6 at half. Houston had just one TD in five visits to Jax red zone; they're 5-2 at home, scoring 24-36 points in the two losses- they won last three home games, by 13-14-18 pts. Last nine Jcksonville games went over the total.

Saints (7-8) @ Bears (6-9) -- New Orleans is still alive, depsite loss at home last week; their magical '06 season ended here LY, in the NFC title game, so they have revenge motive vs a Chicago team that blocked two Packer punts last week, allowing Orton to try only 14 passes (8-14/101). Two games Saints need for help are at 4:15, so they have to win, then hope- this is their second outdoor game since Halloween, first in five weeks (they're 3-1 outside this year, losing only at Tampa in Week 2). Seven of last nine Saints games went over the total.

Steelers (10-5) @ Ravens (4-11) -- Pittsburgh has a home playoff game next week, had 10 days since last game; Charlie Batch is #2 QB, if Tomlin decides to rest Big Ben, vs division rival they beat 38-7 back in Week 9 (-9.5). Ravens were just 16-31/40 passing in game they trailed 35-7 at half. Would be concerned about Pitt's running game, with Parker now gone (broken leg). Rookie Smith is 31-63/369 passing in first two NFL starts- they got whacked in Seattle last week and went 3/out on 17 of last 44 drives. Five of last six Baltimore games went over total.

Seahawks (10-5) @ Falcons (3-12) -- Jim Mora Jr was coach of the Falcons until LY; now he has to be glad as hell they fired him, as 2007 is worst season in Falcon history, and thats saying quite a bit. Mora is Seahawks' DB coach now, and is line either to take Holmgren's place when time comes, or take over at Washington if Willingham gets fired next year. Seattle has a home playoff game next week- they are in eastern time zone for third time in last five weeks- they've won six of last seven games, losing at Carolina in Week 15. Falcons lost six in row, are unbackable (is that a word?)

49ers (5-10) @ Browns (9-6) -- Game doesn't matter to Cleveland team that coughed up chance to make playoffs last week; they'll need Colts to beat Titans Sunday night, no matter what happens here, so hard to lay double digits, considering that if they make playoffs, they play next week. 49ers are 3-2 in last five games and won last two weeks (both at home), as defense allowed just 81.7 rushing yards in the last three games. Niners are 2-5 as road dog, losing away games by 21-18-4-24-17 points. Last five Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Titans (9-6) @ Indianapolis (13-2) -- Sunday night game decides #6 seed in AFC; how much Manning, Colt regulars play decides who wins game. Dungy has said Manning will play half at most. Titans won three of their last four games after a three-game skid had Tennessee at 6-5 and looking dead; they lost 22-20 at home to Indy in Week 2 (+7), holding Colts to one TD in five visits to Titan red zone. Potential s-factor would be return of Harrison at WR, which would keep Manning in game, to re-establish timing after long layoff. Four of last five Indy games went over total.

Vikings (8-7) @ Broncos (6-9) -- Minnesota will have one eye on Broncos, one eye on scoreboard for Redskin updates; they need Dallas to win to have shot at making playoffs, after home loss to Skins last week (first loss in last six games) put Vikings in tough spot. Denver lost four of last five games (win was 41-7 vs Chiefs) scoring one TD on 20 drives in last two games, both vs division rivals. Vikings won last two road games (41-17/27-7) after losing four of first five away games; they scored five defensive TDs in last four road games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Denver games.

Chargers (10-5) @ Raiders (4-11) -- San Diego has home playoff game next week; they rested Rivers last week, likely to do more of same, and Volek wasn't exactly impressive in relief last week, but Raiders are giving young Russell his first NFL start after a horror show vs Jaguars last week, in 49-11 loss, their third in row (by 31- 7-38 pts). Bolts won first meeting 28-14 in Week 6 (-10), as hosts outrushed Oakland 206-53, sacked Culpepper six times. Raiders been outscored 56-15 in second half of last three games. Five of Raiders' last six games went over total.

Rams (3-12) @ Cardinals (7-8) -- Arizona has shot at rare .500 year after blowing chances to contend for playoff spot; they won the first meeting at St Louis 34-31 in Week 5 (-3.5) when Leinart hurt his collarbone and two-time MVP (with Rams) Warner came in, won game for Big Red. Cardinals are just 2-3 in last five at home, losing twice in OT in last five weeks. Lost year ends for St Louis, which lost last three games, by 9-19-17 points; they covered last three road games, after going 0-4 vs spread in first four. Losses on road for Rams are by 21-28-19-27-9 pts (won at NO, SF).

Chiefs (4-11) @ Jets (3-12) -- Herm Edwards quit Jets two years ago, now makes first visit back with Chief team that last won on October 21 (12-10 vs Raiders, which made them 4-3 at the time). Jets lost last three games, are 1-12 vs teams other than Dolphins; they're favored for first time since Halloween, in stadium where they're 2-6 this season, beating Miami (31-28 in Week 3) and the Steelers (19-16 ot in Week 11). Chiefs just don't have QB who is at NFL level; they're 1-7 vs spread during losing streak; they are 2-5 on road, losing by 17-10-3-34-5 points.

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 05:57 AM

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
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Sunday, December 30

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Browns missed a "Golden Opportunity" according to head coach Romeo Crennel, when his team lost to the Bengals last week. A win would have put his team into the playoffs, and now if the Titans defeat the Colts it doesn't matter what they do this week. According to team insiders the buzz in the locker room took a big hit after that loss. EDGE: 49ERS
San Francisco 49ers look to close its dismal season with a third straight victory. Third-string QB Shaun Hill improved to 2-0 as a starter in his career after a win against the Buccaneers last Sunday. Problem is Hill will miss Sunday's game with back spasms, and Chris Weinke will start. EDGE: BROWNS
Browns are playing for an AFC Wild Card spot - need a win and Titans loss.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

According to Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy his team will "play to win this game". Green Bay has won 12 of their last 14 games against the Lions, and look to be just what the doctor ordered for a Packers team looking to rebound after their embarrassing loss in Chicago to the Bears. QB Brett Favre has 700 completions and 8,155 passing yards against Detroit, which are his best against any team. EDGE: PACKERS
The Detroit Lions snapped a six-game losing streak last week, defeating the Kansas City Chiefs, but coach Rod Marinelli said the "knife is still in" and this season "hurts." Lions do have a shot at reaching .500 for the first time since 2000 with a win, and expect to see a lot of RB TI Duckett. Lions offensive coordinator Mike Martz said Duckett "will get the ball frequently" after the Packers defense just got ran over to the tone of 139 yards last week. EDGE: LIONS
Packers have already clinched the #2 seed in the NFC - may rest starters.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The New Orleans Saints have a shot at the NFC Wildcard, but according to QB Drew Bress "We are not worried about that, as we are playing for pride." Saints will be without RB Reggie Bush for this game, but according to team insiders they are looking to avenge last years playoff loss to these Bears, in hopes of saving their current season. EDGE: SAINTS
The Chicago Bears embarrassed the Packers just last week, and coach Lovie Smith said "Our team showed a lot of character". Chicago produced a season high 139 rushing yards against the Pack, and the Saints defense is allowing 108 yards on the ground over their last three games. EDGE: BEARS
Saints playing for an NFC wild card spot - need a win + Vikings/Redskins losses.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers already have wrapped up the NFC South Division, and per coach Jon Gruden the starters are expected to see only limited action in this game. Gruden rested his players for in the second half last week, and said "This week will be a similar case." EDGE: PANTHERS
Panthers rookie QB Matt Moore has given the team some stability finally at the postion, starting the last two games, including a 13-10 upset victory over the Seahawks. The Buccaneers gave up three passing touchdowns to San Francisco just last week, so look for Moore to go to the air as well. EDGE: PANTHERS.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Jaguars have locked up the No.5 seed in the AFC, and may rest their starters for this game. Backup QB Quinn Gray is expected to see some playing time filling in for David Garrard, and running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are out. Coach Jack Del Rio said no matter who is out there "We will complete." EDGE: JAGUARS
The Texans haven't won a game against their South division rivals all season, and with a loss to the Jags here, they will fall to 0-6. However, look for the Texans to come out firing as they are averaging close to 30 points in their last two home games with QB Sage Rosenfels starting. EDGE: TEXANS

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)

The Pittsburgh Steelers need a victory and a Chargers loss to claim the No.3 seed in the AFC. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger will rest and not play in this game, but coach Mike Tomlin said "The No.3 seed is significant. We have the opportunity to get it, and we will plan to do just that." With a victory Sunday, the Steelers will have gone undefeated in divisional play for the first time since 2002. EDGE: STEELERS
The Ravens have been hit hard by the injury bug. Rookie QB Troy Smith will make his second career start, after completing 16 of 33 passes for 199 yards last week, replacing Kyle Boller. TE Todd Heap, DE Trevor Smith, CB Chris McAlister, CB Samari Rolle, LB Ray Lewis, and RB Willis McGahee are all not expected to play. Ravens failed to score until the fourth quarter last week, and have been outscored by an average of 14 points during their current nine game slide. EDGE: STEELERS

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)

With a win, the San Diego Chargers will host either Tennessee or Cleveland in the wild-card round. More importantly, the Chargers would grad the No.3 seed in the AFC and wouldn't have to face Jacksonville, which handed them their last loss. The No.3 seed is "Important to us" according to Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Expect to see LT playing in this game (maybe not a lot though) as he is going for the rushing title and his lineman have all been asking him "How many more yards are needed?" Tomlinson has eight career 100 yard rushing games against the Raiders. EDGE: CHARGERS
Raiders No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell will get the start once again. Russell was 7-for-23 for 83 yards with a touchdown pass, but also had three interceptions and a fumble, last week. Head coach Lane Kiffin said "You name it" and Russell has to fix it. The Raiders are expected to have to deal with Luis Castillo and Shawne Merriman on defense as well. EDGE: CHARGERS

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)

The Washington Redskins are in control of their playoff fate, and with a win against the Dallas Cowboys they will clinch a playoff spot for just the second time since the 1999 season. RB Clinton Portis said "We are in this position and we have to finish it out." QB Todd Collins has completed 60 percent of his passes and has thrown for four touchdowns during their current three game winning streak. EDGE: REDSKINS
The Dallas Cowboys have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and are likely to sit a few startes. WR Terrell Owens is nursing an ankle sprain and QB Tony Romo with his thumb injury are both not expected to play. Cowboys backup QB Brad Johnson looks to be in line for this first start this season, along with WR Terry Glenn returning from knee surgery. Dallas hasn't looked sharp of late, while the Redskins have looked nothing but. EDGE: REDSKINS.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (NBC | 8:15 ET)

The Tennessee Titans can clinch the AFC wild card spot with a win against the Indianapolis Colts. "I feel like we match up pretty good," said QB Vince Young. Tennessee has the fifth-best rushing offense in the NFL with 134 yards per game, and Colts S Antonie Bethea with DE Robert Mathis are both nursing knee injuries and are expected to see limited time. EDGE: TITANS
Colts WR Marvin Harrison is expected to make his return from a knee injury, but coach Tony Dungy wouldn't see how long he'll play. QB Peyton Manning, who needs just 55 yards passing to reach the 4,000 mark is expected to start, but rest for at least half of the game, with backup Jim Sorgi taking over. EDGE: TITANS.

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (FOX | 1 PM ET)
Browns are playing for an AFC Wild Card spot - need a win and Titans loss.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (FOX | 1 PM ET)
Packers have already clinched the #2 seed in the NFC - may rest starters.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (FOX | 1 PM ET)
Saints playing for an NFC wild card spot - need a win + Vikings/Redskins losses.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX | 1 PM ET)
Bucs already clinched the #4 Seed in the NFC - may rest starters.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (CBS | 1 PM ET)
Jags have already clinched the #5 seed in the AFC - may rest starters.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)
Steelers clinched a playoff spot - playing for #3 seed in the AFC but need Chargers loss so may rest starters.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)
Chargers have already clinched playoff spot and will earn the #3 seed in the AFC with a win.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)
Cowboys have already clinched the #1 Seed in the NFC - may rest starters.
Redskins win and they clinch the NFC wild card.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (NBC | 8:15 ET)
Titans win clinches an AFC Wild Card spot.

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 06:01 AM

National Football League – Line Moves

NFL
Line Movements

Sunday, December 30

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Line Movements
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Line movements in the NFL

The final week of the NFL’s regular season often leads to pending playoff teams resting their regulars. Recently, teams have put a greater emphasis on carrying momentum into the postseason, though. The oddsmakers failed to fully take that fact into account with three games on the slate for this weekend. Here are those games:

Detroit at Green Bay

Open – Green Bay (-3.5)

Any other week in the season and this line would be approaching double digits. The only reason it’s so low is because of Green Bay’s impending trip to the playoffs. The odds-makers assumed the Packers would simply rest up for the postseason and not put much effort into this game. But that will not be case.

Green Bay played its worst game of the year last week at Chicago, taking a 35-7 pounding at the hands of Chicago. Mike McCarthy, Brett Favre and the rest of the Packers will not want to go into the postseason with consecutive poor performances. They didn’t get to run any of their normal offense in the 40 mph Chicago wind so letting up this week would mean essentially three consecutive weeks off for the Green Bay offense. The Packers don’t want to take this chance so they’ll come out firing, maybe not for the whole game but for a good portion of it.

The betting public has already jumped on this line with a majority of the action going on Green Bay. This will continue throughout the week and lead to a rise in the spread. So if you like the Packers to bounce back take the line now while it’s at its lowest. If you like Detroit wait until later in the week to place your bet.

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Open – Carolina (-3)

Tampa Bay falls into a similar situation as Green Bay. The Buccaneers are coming off an unexpected loss to the lowly 49ers last week and won’t want to head into the playoffs with consecutive losses. Momentum plays a large part in postseason success and Tampa Bay will need to build some up with a win in the final week. The Bucs may not play their starters throughout but they’ll give them some significant action.

The biggest advantage for Tampa Bay may be at quarterback position. Jeff Garcia may not see much action for the Bucs but his backup, Luke McCown, has played extremely well in spot action this year. McCown has completed 65.8 percent of his passes this year and owns a very solid 87.4 quarterback rating.

Carolina, meanwhile, is down to third-string quarterback Matt Moore. For as good as McCown has been, Moore has been equally as bad. He has completed just 55.2 percent of his passes this year and is the not-so-proud owner of an awful 59.4 quarterback rating.

The Panthers have garnered no respect from the public this year and they’re not about to start this week. The Bucs have received a majority of the action so far this week and will likely continue to up until game time. So if you like the Bucs take them now while they’re still underdogs. But if you like Carolina, wait until closer to kickoff to place your bet.

Seattle at Atlanta

Open – Atlanta (-2.5)

Drama has surrounded this Atlanta franchise since the offseason and it continues to envelop the team into the final week. From Mike Vick’s legal troubles to Bobby Petrino abruptly leaving the team, this squad is in absolute shambles. Atlanta’s issues have been well-publicized, making the public’s perception of the Falcons a non-favorable one.

The Falcons are currently favored but that might not last much longer. Seattle’s division title, coupled with Atlanta’s negative public perception, make betting on the Seahawks an attractive proposition. And that has been the exact case so far with heavy action on Seattle through Wednesday. Bettors don’t care that Seattle will rest its starters for at least a portion of the game.

Atlanta has been favored just once coming into the season’s final week. There’s a reason for that. The Falcons are not a good team and the public will realize that and decrease this spread throughout the week. If you like Seattle take the line now. If you like Atlanta delay your wager until later in the week.

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 06:02 AM

National Football League – Betting Notes

NFL
Betting Notes

Sunday, December 30

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NFL game day buzz: Week 17 betting notes
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Buffalo at Philadelphia (-9)

Philadelphia closes a regular season with Donovan McNabb under center for the first time in four years when it meets the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in a matchup of teams trying to finish at .500.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (+3)

Carolina and Tampa Bay have developed a rivalry in the NFC South, and the Buccaneers will be trying to beat the Panthers twice in a season for just the second time and first since 2002. Carolina has won seven of nine against the Bucs and four straight in Tampa Bay since then.

Cincinnati at Miami (+3)

The Bengals have lost all six of their games at Miami, including one playoff matchup, since winning their first visit there in 1968. The Dolphins lead the all-time series 12-4, though they lost 16-13 at Cincinnati in 2004 in the most recent meeting.

Detroit at Green Bay (-4)

Overall, the Packers have won 12 of their last 14 games against the Lions, including a 37-26 win on Thanksgiving. Brett Favre's 700 completions and 8,155 passing yards against Detroit are his best against any team.

Jacksonville at Houston (-6 ½)

Houston has enjoyed more success versus Jacksonville than against its other division rivals, going 6-5 and only being swept once. The Texans, however, weren't too competitive in a 37-17 road loss to the Jaguars on Oct. 14.

Seattle at Atlanta (-1)

Atlanta has dropped four straight against the Seahawks since a 24-17 road win on Nov. 30, 1997.

San Francisco at Cleveland (-10)

This is the 49ers' first visit to Cleveland since 1993. The teams are meeting for the first time since the Browns won 13-12 on Sept. 21, 2003.

New Orleans at Chicago (+1)

This is the first time the Saints have visited Chicago during the regular season since 2002. Including last year's playoff victory, the Bears have won two straight over the Saints after losing the previous three in a row.

Minnesota at Denver (+3)

The Vikings have won two straight and five of the last seven meetings against the Broncos.

San Diego at Oakland (+9)

The Raiders have been outscored 77-31 in three straight home losses to the Chargers.

St. Louis at Arizona (-6)

A loss will send the Rams to their worst season since 1991. St. Louis, though, has won four of its last five in Arizona.

Kansas City at N.Y. Jets (-6 ½)

This will be the first meeting between Kansas City and New York since Sept. 11, 2005, when the Chiefs won 27-7.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+3)

The Ravens have won their last two home games against the Steelers, and are trying to avoid being swept by them in a season series for the first time since 2002.

Dallas at Washington (-9)

The Redskins have won the rivals' last two games at FedEx Field.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (+6 ½)

Tennessee hasn't won at Indianapolis since 2002, losing four in a row by a combined 133-47. The Titans, however, have given the Colts problems the last three times they've played them overall. They lost 22-20 in Nashville in Week 2 this season, but beat Indianapolis at home last season 20-17 on a 60-yard field goal by Rob Bironas, their only win in the last nine games of the series.

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 06:04 AM

National Football League – Mismatches

NFL

Sunday, December 30

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NFL mismatches: Where to find the edge in Sunday's games
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The following is a selection of Sunday games where mismatches in key positions could have a major affect on the outcome.

Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson vs. Denver’s rush defense

Rookie running back Adrian Peterson is the one person ultimately responsible for Minnesota’s success. The Oklahoma product leads the Vikings against one of the league’s weakest rush defenses.

Peterson ranks first in the NFL, averaging more than 100 rushing yards per game, and has more than 1,300 rushing yards this season. Peterson ran for a career-high 296 yards and three touchdowns on Nov. 4 versus San Diego. He also rushed for 224 yards last month against the Bears.

Denver’s opponents have compiled 140 rushing yards per game and have scored 14 rushing touchdowns. Denver allowed Raiders running back Justin Fargas, averaging 72 rushing yards, to accumulate 146 rushing yards against it on Dec. 2.

Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre vs. Detroit’s pass defense

Brett Favre, who has played like an MVP candidate this season, will attempt to exploit the Lions’ mediocre secondary.

Expect the veteran quarterback to suit up against the Lions. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy told reporters that they will “play to win the game” against Detroit.

Favre enters the game as the fifth-most efficient quarterback in the league. He has completed 66 percent of his passes for more than 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns. It is also just the fifth time in Favre’s 17-year career that he has passed the 4,000-yard mark. Favre is averaging more than 270 passing yards per game.

Meanwhile, Detroit’s opponents are averaging 263 passing yards. The Lions have conceded 29 passing touchdowns and are allowing a league-high 27 points per game.

Cleveland receiver Braylon Edwards vs. San Francisco’s secondary

Edwards, tied with Dallas’ Terrell Owens for second in the NFL with 15 touchdowns, will attempt to increase his scoring total against the 49ers.

Edwards is averaging 80 receiving yards and ranks sixth in the league with 1,220 total receiving yards. His 16 yards per reception, ranks eighth. Edwards caught eight passes for 52 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday against the Bengals.

San Francisco has yielded 23 passing touchdowns and is conceding more than 220 passing yards per contest. It also allowed three Tampa Bay receivers to each accumulate more than 70 receiving yards last Sunday.

Philadelphia running back Brian Westbrook vs. Buffalo’s rush defense

Westbrook could be in for a spectacular performance Sunday when Philadelphia faces the Bills’ permeable rush defense.

Westbrook has totaled 1,220 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. He rushed for 100 yards in last Sunday’s victory in New Orleans, his second 100-yard rushing total in three contests and his sixth overall this campaign. The all-purpose running back also caught five touchdown passes.

Buffalo is conceding 128 yards per night on the ground, resulting in 10 rushing touchdowns. It allowed two New York running backs to each amass more than 140 rushing yards last Sunday.

San Diego cornerback Antonio Cromartie vs. Oakland quarterback JaMarcus Russell

Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell will make his first start Sunday. However, things could get ugly for the rookie when he meets Chargers cornerback Antonio Cromartie, the league leader in interceptions.

Russell passed for 83 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions in last Sunday’s setback to the Jags. He also has a shaky 24.6 passer rating.

Cromartie leads the league with 10 interceptions in 14 games. He has six interceptions in his last five games and has returned his 10 interceptions for a total of 126 yards.

Indianapolis’ turnovers recovered vs. Tennessee’s turnovers lost

The Colts shouldn’t need Peyton Manning to topple the Titans.

Indianapolis’ defense ranks third in the NFL in yards per game (274) and fourth in points allowed per game (16.4). Most impressively, it ranks second in turnovers recovered.

The Colts have forced 35 turnovers this campaign (22 interceptions and 13 fumbles). Linebacker Gary Brackett leads Indianapolis with four picks, while defensive end Robert Mathis is the team leader in sacks (7.0) and forced fumbles (4).

The Titans have struggled to protect the ball and have turned it over 32 times (22 picks and 10 fumbles). That includes twice in last week’s triumph over the Jets.

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 06:05 AM

National Football League – Underdogs

NFL
Underdogs

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NFL underdogs: picks
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NFL underdogs: Week 17 picks

New Orleans at Chicago - Bears +2

Chicago’s defense is finally coming around after injuries had the club relying on second and third stringers for much of the season. I guess it’s better late than never.

Last week the Bears used some timely defensive plays and a strong running game to shock the Green Bay Packers in a chilly game at Soldier Field. Expect much of the same this week against the Saints who could be forced to start Pierre Thomas at running back if Reggie Bush and Aaron Stecker are sidelined with injuries.

Seattle at Atlanta - Seahawks +3

This one’s a handicapping nightmare. Seattle is already postseason-bound and will probably get its starters out of the game as soon as possible. With Michael Vick’s mess and the whole Bobby Petrino issue, the Falcons have had more drama to deal with than anyone would wish upon them. Plus, they’re just awful.

Seattle’s second unit should be able to beat this Falcons team and that’s probably what it’ll come down to in the second half. I just can’t bring myself to back this Falcons fiasco. I’ll take the points.

Cincinnati at Miami - Dolphins +3

I know, I can hardly believe the Dolphins actually won a game either. Things could change in a hurry now that Bill Parcells is in town though. He doesn’t have much time to evaluate what he has to work with for next season, so for many of the Dolphins this game is basically an audition for a job next year.

The Big Tuna won’t mess around. If he doesn’t like what he sees, he’ll get rid of it and Miami coach Cam Cameron knows it.

Last week’s record: 3-0
Season record to date: 25-22-1

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 06:10 AM

National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL
NFL poolies' cheat sheet

Sunday, December 30

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Cheat Sheet
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Buffalo at Philadelphia (-9)

Why Bills cover: Have rushed for over 100 yards in four straight games averaging 137.3 yards during that span. Brian Dawkins is questionable with a foot injury.

Why Eagles cover: Donovan McNabb has rushed for 101 yards in his last three games after totaling only 135 in his first 10. That suggests he is finally recovered from the knee injury suffered last season. Bills will be without left tackle Jason Peters, who has been lost for the season with a groin injury.

Total (38): Under is 4-1 in Bills' last five road games and 6-1-2 in Eagles' last nine versus a team with a losing record.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (+3)

Why Panthers Cover: Panthers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings, winning seven of nine and four straight at Tampa. Tampa Bay's starters are only expected to see limited action. Carolina is 2-0 ATS since Matt Moore took over as the starting quarterback.

Why Buccaneers cover: Backup QB Luke McCown has played well in limited action, completing 65.8 percent of his passes with an 87.4 quarterback rating. Underdog is 8-1 ATS in last nine series meetings.

Total (36): Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.

Cincinnati at Miami (+3)

Why Bengals cover: Dolphins, allowing 30.5 points per game over their last four, are missing key defensive players Channing Crowder and Zach Thomas. Miami is on 1-6 ATS at home.

Why Dolphins cover: Both coaches and players will be hoping to impress Bill Parcells, the team's new executive VP of football operations. Cincinnati has not won back-to-back games this season and is 0-6 all-time at Miami.

Total (45): Under is 5-0 in Bengals' last five games.

Detroit at Green Bay (-4)

Why Lions cover: Packers will likely be without deep threat Greg Jennings and could rest their starters to get ready for the playoffs. With backup QB Aaron Rodgers hurting, Green Bay could use third-stringer Craig Nall to spell Brett Favre. Nall has not attempted a pass this season.

Why Packers cover: Ryan Grant has rushed for 839 yards and seven TDs in nine games since becoming the Packers' featured back. Detroit has lost 15 straight meetings in Green Bay and is 4-10-1 ATS during that span. Home team is 15-5-1 ATS in last 21 series meetings. Lions will be without starting running back Kevin Jones, who is lost for the season with a knee injury.

Total (39): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Green Bay.

Jacksonville at Houston (-6 .5)

Why Jaguars cover: Fred Taylor has rushed for over 100 yards in five consecutive games. QB Quinn Gray was 2-1 filling in for David Garrard while playing each game on the road. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in last six series meetings.

Why Texans cover: Sage Rosenfels is 3-1 as the starting quarterback. Jaguars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston. Jacksonville can't improve their playoff position and could rest their starters.

Total (41): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

Seattle at Atlanta (-1)

Why Seahawks cover: Mike Holmgren said he might not rest his players. Defense can set a team record for fewest points allowed in a season if it can hold the Falcons under 13. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in last five series meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in last five meetings.

Why Falcons cover: Chris Redman has thrown for 818 yards and six TDs in four games since becoming the starting QB. Atlanta has covered only three times this season, but two of those were at home.

Total (38): Over is 6-0 in Falcons' last 6 games.

San Francisco at Cleveland (-10)

Why 49ers cover: With wins against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, San Francisco is 2-0 both straight up and ATS since Shaun Hill became the staring quarterback. Frank Gore has stepped up his play in the second half. He is averaging 123.3 total yards per game, compared to 80 yards per game in his first seven contests.

Why Browns cover: Have won six straight at home, covering each time. Niners QB Hill will be playing with a sore back.

Total: (40 .5): Under is 5-0 in Browns' last five games.

New Orleans at Chicago (+1)

Why Saints cover: Saints are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Need to win to keep playoff hopes alive. Could have Reggie Bush back from a knee injury.

Why Bears cover: Are 2-0 ATS with Kyle Orton as the starting quarterback. Have won last two meetings. Already weak Saints secondary will be without Mike McKenzie, out for the season with a torn ACL.

Total (40): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Minnesota at Denver (+3)

Why Vikings cover: Need to win to keep playoff hopes alive. Have won two straight meetings and five of the last seven against Denver. Broncos are giving up 140.7 yards per game on the ground.

Why Broncos cover: Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson has been picked off five times in his last two games and will face Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly in Denver's secondary. Adrian Peterson has only totaled 108 yards rushing over his last three games.

Total (42): Over is 11-1 in Broncos' last 12 home games.

San Diego at Oakland (+9)

Why Chargers cover: Are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings and 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Oakland. A win will give San Diego the third seed in the playoffs. Favorite is 7-1 ATS in last eight series meetings. JaMarcus Russell (24.6 rating) will make his first career start at quarterback. Warren Sapp could was suspended for bumping an official.

Why Raiders cover: Are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC West. LaDainian Tomlinson has a sore hamstring and could be rested as the Chargers prepare for the playoffs.

Total (42 .5): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.

St. Louis at Arizona (-6)

Why Rams cover: Have won four of their last five meetings at Arizona. Road team is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. Underdog is 8-0 ATS in last eight series meetings.

Why Cardinals cover: Are averaging 24.7 points per game at home. Trying to avoid finishing with a losing record for the first time since 1998. The Rams have allowed the most points (390) in the NFC.

Total (48 .5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Arizona.

Kansas City at N.Y. Jets (-6 .5)

Why Chiefs cover: Herm Edwards will be facing his former team for the first time. Jets QB Kellen Clemens is battling rib and shoulder injuries. New York is only averaging 11.3 points per game over its last three games, all losses.

Why Jets cover: Larry Johnson will not play for the Chiefs. Chad Pennington (86.2 rating) will start at quarterback if Clemens (59.0) can't go.

Total (34): Under is 4-1 in Jets' last five home games and 5-1 in their last six overall.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+3)

Why Steelers cover: Ravens have lost nine consecutive games. Need to win for a chance at the third seed in the AFC playoffs. Baltimore will start third-string QB Troy Smith again. Willis McGahee has broken ribs and is unlikely to play this week.

Why Ravens cover: Ben Roethlisberger is unlikely to play because of an ankle injury. Home team is 5-2 ATS in last seven series meetings. Willie Parker suffered a broken leg last week and is out for the season. Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (34 .5): Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

Dallas at Washington (-9)

Why Cowboys cover: Are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings in Washington. Underdog is 17-4 ATS in last 21 series meetings. Coach Wade Phillips said he wants to win for "the integrity of the game." The Cowboys can set a franchise record for most wins in a season with a victory. Terry Glenn is expected to return from knee surgery.

Why Redskins cover: Will clinch a playoff birth with a victory. Todd Collins has thrown four TDs with no interceptions and has a QB rating of 107.0 since replacing the injured Jason Campbell. Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. Terrell Owens (sprained ankle) probably won't play and Tony Romo (sore thumb) is expected to be limited.

Total (39 1/2): Over is 5-1 in Vikings' last six home games.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (+6)

Why Titans cover: Can earn a playoff birth with a win. Titans are averaging 134.1 yards per game on the ground. Colts will play backup QB Jim Sorgi for at least half of the game and will likely rest many of their regulars.

Why Colts cover: Have won four straight meetings at home, outscoring Tennessee 133-47. Marvin Harrison might see his first action since Week 6.

Total (39): Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 5-1 during the last six meetings at Indianapolis.

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 06:11 AM

National Football League – over/under plays

NFL
Total bias: Week 17 over/under plays

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NFL over/under picks
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Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles - over 38
It's been a disappointing season for both Buffalo and Philadelphia. Still, finishing with a .500 record would take away some of the sting of a cruel four-month stretch.
The weather forecast doesn't look too threatening, not that it really matters for Buffalo. The Bills scored 23 points and allowed 38 in the worst conditions they'd seen all season last week against the New York Giants.
Buffalo management would love to show its fans that the club took a step forward in 2007. A loss will make that difficult to prove given that it would saddle the team with the same record (7-9) as last year.
As for Philly, there is a good chance this could be Donovan McNabb's last home game as an Eagle. I'm sure McNabb wants to go out with a performance to remember.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins - under 45
Yes, this is the Dolphins' first game with Bill Parcells on the job. Miami players will be trying to impress the Big Tuna are likely to accomplish that feat on the defensive side.
The Bengals' defense has been a disaster throughout the 2007 campaign. A good showing on the final Sunday would relieve some of head coach Marvin Lewis' season-long headache.

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns - under 40 1/2
Two words: Chris Weinke.
The former Heisman trophy winner is the NFL's quarterback version of the Brooklyn Brawler - he gets numerous chances to win and always fails miserably.
The Niners signed Weinke earlier this month after putting starting QB Alex Smith on the injury reserve. Weinke is starting this weekend because of injuries to Trent Dilfer and Shaun Hill.
The Browns' pass defense is among the worst in the league but Weinke's limited skills won?t be able to take advantage of the second-rate secondary.

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 06:16 AM

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday

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NFL Gameday
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Sunday NFL Gameday

Two Wild Card berths will still be on the line on Sunday during the last weekend of the National Football League's regular-season schedule. Here is your NFL Gameday . . .

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (-11.5) (Total 40.5)
Cleveland Browns Stadium, 1:00pm ET (FOX)

The 49ers might not have anything to play for, but that didn't stop them from upending the Buccaneers at home last weekend. Of course, that was partly due to a solid effort from Shaun Hill (three TD passes), and he'll sit out on Sunday with a back injury. That makes Chris Weinke the 49ers' starting quarterback for Sunday's game vs. Cleveland.

The Browns hurt their Wild Card chances by losing 19-14 on the road to the Bengals last weekend. Cleveland now needs to hope that the Titans fall to the Colts on Sunday night to reach the postseason. Derek Anderson went 29-of-48 for 251 yards passing in the loss to Cincinnati, with two touchdown passes but four big interceptions on the day.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-9) (Total 39.5)
FedExField, 4:15pm ET (FOX)

Dallas has said they want to win Sunday's game, but the result won't make any difference to them in the standings. Terrell Owens has already been ruled OUT for the contest with his ankle injury, while Marion Barber is expected to have limited carries. Tony Romo is likely to get the start at QB but he's not expected to play the whole game.

The Redskins can clinch the second NFC Wild Card berth with a win over the Cowboys; if they lose they'll have to hope that both the Vikings and the Saints lose on Sunday as well. Washington came up large in a 32-21 road win over Minnesota last weekend, with Todd Collins going 22-of-29 for 254 yards and two TDs. Clinton Portis also had a score.

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Denver Broncos (Total 41.5)
Invesco Field, 4:15pm ET (FOX)

The Vikings need the Redskins to lose to advance to the postseason, but they won't know the result of that game when this one begins. Minnesota scored two late touchdowns last week to make the game close, but they couldn't come all the way back. Tarvaris Jackson went 25-of-41 for 220 yards passing, with one TD strike and two INTs.

Denver probably doesn't care if Minnesota or Washington makes the postseason, so there's no telling how much their starters will play on Sunday afternoon. The Broncos were embarrassed 23-3 on the road vs. San Diego on Christmas Eve, with Jay Cutler going just 14-of-32 for 155 yards passing and two INTs. Jason Elam booted a field goal.

Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts (Total 39)
RCA Dome, 8:15pm ET (NBC)

The Titans are in with a win, or they can play for a tie and still make the playoffs if the Browns lose in the afternoon. Tennessee kept their playoff drive alive with a slim 10-6 home win over the Jets last week. Vince Young went 12-of-22 for 166 yards passing in that contest, with one INT. LenDale White rushed for 103 yards on 23 carries in the win.

The Colts are expected to limit Peyton Manning to only a cameo appearance on Sunday night, although Marvin Harrison is finally expected to return from injury and get the start at wide receiver. Indianapolis cruised to a 38-15 home win over the Texans last weekend, with Manning throwing for 311 yards and three touchdowns in that matchup.

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 06:23 AM

National Basketball Association – Matchup Notes

NBA
Betting Matchup Notes

Sunday, December 30

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Today's key NBA betting matchup notes
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Sunday's key NBA matchup notes

Chicago at New York (+2 ½, 193)

The Knicks have dropped 10 of 13 against the Bulls but have won the last two meetings at Madison Square Garden.

Philadelphia at Portland (-7, 183 ½)

On Nov. 16, Portland led Philadelphia by 25 points in the second quarter and 22 in the third before the Sixers outscored the Blazers 36-15 in the fourth quarter to win 92-88.

Golden State at Denver (-4, 227 ½)

Denver has won eight of the last 12 meetings against Golden State over the last four seasons.

Memphis at San Antonio (off)

The Spurs have won six straight at home against the Grizzlies.

Phoenix at Sacramento (off)

The Kings are 2-7 in games Ron Artest has missed this season. Sacramento had Artest in the lineup in its first matchup with Phoenix this season, losing 100-98 on Nov. 20.

Boston at L.A. Lakers (-2, 200 ½)

The Celtics won their first meeting with the Lakers 107-94 on Nov. 23 at TD Banknorth Garden.

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**pm530** · 12-30-2007, 06:26 AM

College Basketball – Long Sheet

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, December 30

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NORTHEASTERN (4 - 6) at SYRACUSE (9 - 3) - 12/30/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHEASTERN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 1-0 against the spread versus NORTHEASTERN over the last 3 seasons
SYRACUSE is 1-0 straight up against NORTHEASTERN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UC-IRVINE (4 - 8) at HARVARD (4 - 10) - 12/30/2007, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UC-IRVINE is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
UC-IRVINE is 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
UC-IRVINE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UC-IRVINE is 1-0 against the spread versus HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
UC-IRVINE is 1-0 straight up against HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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AIR FORCE (8 - 4) at WAKE FOREST (8 - 3) - 12/30/2007, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 24-40 ATS (-20.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 24-40 ATS (-20.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 71-97 ATS (-35.7 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
AIR FORCE is 1-0 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE is 1-0 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MISSOURI ST (7 - 5) at S ILLINOIS (5 - 6) - 12/30/2007, 3:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
S ILLINOIS is 2-2 against the spread versus MISSOURI ST over the last 3 seasons
S ILLINOIS is 3-1 straight up against MISSOURI ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLORIDA ST (10 - 4) at GEORGIA TECH (6 - 5) - 12/30/2007, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA TECH is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA TECH is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA TECH is 3-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA TECH is 2-1 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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VALPARAISO (10 - 2) at N CAROLINA (12 - 0) - 12/30/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
N CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
N CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
N CAROLINA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
N CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
N CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
VALPARAISO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (9 - 1) at UNLV (9 - 3) - 12/30/2007, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UNLV is 1-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
UNLV is 1-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE ST (3 - 7) at ILLINOIS (8 - 4) - 12/30/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a road underdog of 18.5 to 24 points since 1997.
ILLINOIS is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ILLINOIS is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ILLINOIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
ILLINOIS is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
ILLINOIS is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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N COLORADO (6 - 6) at N ARIZONA (8 - 5) - 12/30/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N COLORADO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
N COLORADO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
N COLORADO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ARIZONA is 3-1 straight up against N COLORADO over the last 3 seasons

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MONTANA ST (7 - 5) at OREGON ST (6 - 5) - 12/30/2007, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 69-98 ATS (-38.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 1-0 against the spread versus MONTANA ST over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 1-0 straight up against MONTANA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Announcement

Sunday Trends and Indexes 12/30

Sunday Trends and Indexes 12/30

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