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Let's keep er goin boys...24-8-1 since week 8
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
I loved S.F. (was going to be a 4*) but cannot bet Weinke so no play
Super System Plays
1) Philly: see below
2) Chicago: see below
3) San Diego: Super Sytem has them as 12 point favorites, but don't know how long starters will play so not wagering on them.
2* Phil -7.5 over Buffalo
I've been riding the Eagles the last few weeks because as I have said they are an underrated team and this week there is line value as my math system has them as 13 point favorites. The Eagles may be 7-8 but they are 1-5 in games decided by 4 or less which is a huge contributor to their record. The Bills meanwhile are coming off an emotional loss in which Kevin Everett was present versus the Bills. Both teams have no shot at the playoff, but McNabb has been playing well and will continue to try to impress NFL owners as he looks to be traded for a big contract next year. Buffalo caught a hot streak in the middle of the year but this was against sub-par opponents and they lost their last two, both against winning teams (Cleveland and N.Y. Giants). The Bills offense is below average gaining 4 YPR (18th) and 6.53 YPPA (21st) and scoring only 16.2 PPG versus teams that allow 21.7. Defensively, they are not much better allowing 4.4 YPR (28th) and 6.9 YPPA (14th). The Eagles have on of the best rushing games in the league averaging 4.74 YPR (2nd) and will take advantage of the Bills bad rush D. In the air Philly averages 6.8 YPPA (19th). The Eagles have a very strong D allowing only 19.4 PPG versus teams that have combined to score 23.7. The Eagles rushing defense is one of the best in the NFL allowing only 3.76 YPR (6th). This will allow the Eagles to stop the run and put the game on Trent Edwards' shoulders, a proposition that I love!
2* Chicago +2 over N.O.
It is week 17 and the public still doesn't realize how bad the Saints are! New Orleans is just as bad as the Bears and playing on the road in cold weather they have no business being a favorite. My Super System has the Bears as 4 point favorites! The line is obviously skewed because N.O. has an outside shot at making the playoffs if they win (they need both Minnesota and Washington to lose), but as I said last week these teams are 49-76-4 ATS over the last 17 years. The Saints have a terrible rushing game averaging only 3.7 YPR (28th). Their passing game is average gaining 6.9 YPPA (15th). Defensively they allow 23.6 PPG versus teams that have combined to average 20.8 PPG. They allow 4.1 YPR (17th) and a pitiful 8 YPPA (last in NFL) and 250 YPG in the air (30th). The Bears stats are similar to the Saints. They gain 3.2 YPR and 6.5 YPPA (23rd), but a high school team could pass against this Saints D. Defensively they are slightly better than average allowing 20.1 PPG versus teams that have combined to score 21.1 PPG. They allow 4.2 YPR (24th) and 7.55 YPPA (28th). There are no trends in the contest. I'm following my Super System and taking the Bears as a 2* play.
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
I loved S.F. (was going to be a 4*) but cannot bet Weinke so no play
Super System Plays
1) Philly: see below
2) Chicago: see below
3) San Diego: Super Sytem has them as 12 point favorites, but don't know how long starters will play so not wagering on them.
2* Phil -7.5 over Buffalo
I've been riding the Eagles the last few weeks because as I have said they are an underrated team and this week there is line value as my math system has them as 13 point favorites. The Eagles may be 7-8 but they are 1-5 in games decided by 4 or less which is a huge contributor to their record. The Bills meanwhile are coming off an emotional loss in which Kevin Everett was present versus the Bills. Both teams have no shot at the playoff, but McNabb has been playing well and will continue to try to impress NFL owners as he looks to be traded for a big contract next year. Buffalo caught a hot streak in the middle of the year but this was against sub-par opponents and they lost their last two, both against winning teams (Cleveland and N.Y. Giants). The Bills offense is below average gaining 4 YPR (18th) and 6.53 YPPA (21st) and scoring only 16.2 PPG versus teams that allow 21.7. Defensively, they are not much better allowing 4.4 YPR (28th) and 6.9 YPPA (14th). The Eagles have on of the best rushing games in the league averaging 4.74 YPR (2nd) and will take advantage of the Bills bad rush D. In the air Philly averages 6.8 YPPA (19th). The Eagles have a very strong D allowing only 19.4 PPG versus teams that have combined to score 23.7. The Eagles rushing defense is one of the best in the NFL allowing only 3.76 YPR (6th). This will allow the Eagles to stop the run and put the game on Trent Edwards' shoulders, a proposition that I love!
2* Chicago +2 over N.O.
It is week 17 and the public still doesn't realize how bad the Saints are! New Orleans is just as bad as the Bears and playing on the road in cold weather they have no business being a favorite. My Super System has the Bears as 4 point favorites! The line is obviously skewed because N.O. has an outside shot at making the playoffs if they win (they need both Minnesota and Washington to lose), but as I said last week these teams are 49-76-4 ATS over the last 17 years. The Saints have a terrible rushing game averaging only 3.7 YPR (28th). Their passing game is average gaining 6.9 YPPA (15th). Defensively they allow 23.6 PPG versus teams that have combined to average 20.8 PPG. They allow 4.1 YPR (17th) and a pitiful 8 YPPA (last in NFL) and 250 YPG in the air (30th). The Bears stats are similar to the Saints. They gain 3.2 YPR and 6.5 YPPA (23rd), but a high school team could pass against this Saints D. Defensively they are slightly better than average allowing 20.1 PPG versus teams that have combined to score 21.1 PPG. They allow 4.2 YPR (24th) and 7.55 YPPA (28th). There are no trends in the contest. I'm following my Super System and taking the Bears as a 2* play.
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