4* Green Bay over ARIZONA - These two last met in 2000 when the Packers
travelled to Arizona and shuffled the Cards 29-3 as a 1’ pt AD. Arizona has
not handled the HD role well going 7-16 ATS over the L/6Y. Green Bay is
4-9-1 ATS the L/14 as an AF of 5’ or more. Both teams are fielding beat up
WR units and the Packers may hold out WR Driver another week so call a
Northcoast Full Service Line for updates. Both teams have faced the Lions
with the Cardinals having a misleading final. They outgained Detroit
439-261 and had a 21-16 FD edge. Special teams is what really hurt them
with a PR for a TD and a muffed punt setting up another as well as a 48 yd
int return for a TD. At one point Arizona had allowed 70 yds but gave up 28
points. Jeff Blake left in 1H LW with a heel bruise and his status is
uncertain. It took Green Bay all of 52 seconds to revive its running game
on the soggy tundra of Lambeau Field as Ahman Green reestablished himself
with a 65 yd TD on the Pack’s 2nd play en route to 160 yds rushing (7.0
ypc). GB avg’d 5.7 ypp on a field that was deluged with 3 inches of rain in
the 24 hours prior to the game. Green Bay is still a playoff caliber team
and are now going against what we rate as the worst team in the NFL. We are
leery of going with such a public choice but Green Bay should still handle
the Cardinals easily. FORECAST: Green Bay 31 ARIZONA 9
3* Tampa Bay over ATLANTA - The Bucs have owned the Falcons as of late
going 5-0 SU and ATS since ‘97 winning by an avg score of 26-10. Tampa Bay
has a bye next week and are 5-9 ATS (1-4 vs Div) before hand. They won SU
and ATS LY with Gruden before their bye. Gruden is 8-2 ATS the L/10 at home
off a SU loss. When the Falcons hosted the Bucs LY they drove QB Vick into
to the turf knocking him out of the game. Doug Johnson came off the bench
and threw for 150 yds (52%) with 3 int’s in relief. The Falcons were up 6-3
until a defender slipped on the turf enabling WR Johnson to scamper in with
a 76 yd TD. Atlanta has not flown high as a HD going 4-9 ATS S/’99 (0-4
L2Y!). Tampa Bay has stuffed a scrambling QB (McNabb) and a similar pocket
passing QB in Jake Delhomme to the tune of 244 yds passing (48%) with a 0-3
ratio combined TY. The Falcon’s WR Price has had trouble adjusting to being
the #1 WR here and asked to be moved to the slot so he can face smaller
DB’s and face less double teams. Now Price has to deal with an even better
secondary and a Bucs defense that has made 5 sacks TY. LY the Bucs held
Dunn to 27 combined yds (2.4 ypc) in the home game and he didn’t play in
the road game. The Bucs manhandled a Falcons’ team LY that was more
dangerous than the one they face this week and should get the job done
again vs a conventional QB. FORECAST: Tampa Bay 24 ATLANTA 10
NFL OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets - The home team in this series has lost 8
straight games ATS in this series and the dog is 7-1 ATS since 1999. The
Jets are 11-3 ATS at New England the L/14 and have won the L/6 here. This
will be the Patriots home opener. LY Jets QB Testaverde threw for 150 yds
(65%) with a 1-1 ratio in their 44-7 loss as a 1’ pt HF. The Jets are a
25-8-3 ATS as an AD and the Pats are 1-5 ATS the L/6 as a HF. For the L2Y
the Patriots have been using a short passing offense specializing in RB and
WR screens with Tom Brady. This boosts his pass % and gets the ball into
the hands of his best weapons and helps Brady establish a rhythm for the
game. However teams with quick LB’s can cut off the short routes (see
Buffalo in WK 1) and destroy the play before it develops. The Jets SLB Mo
Lewis and MLB Marvin Jones turn 34 and 31 TY and HC Edwards has expressed a
concern that Lewis is slowing down. The Jets were outgained 276-113 at the
half LW and outFD’d 16-5. What should really concern the Jets is the fact
that in game 1 they mustered 57 yds rushing (2.6 ypc) and only 21 yds (1.9
ypc) LW. We expect the Jets to continue to fade as the Pats expose the lack
of speed the Jets have at LB and Belichick to continue the rushing woes as
well with a solid gameplan for a division win. FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 24 NY
Jets 6
2* INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville - LY the Colts were 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS vs
Jax but those two ATS losses were by a TOTAL of 1 pt as the hook snagged
them twice. The Jags actually held outFD’d the Colts 39-36 and outgained
them 609-579. Jax QB Brunell did not play in the season finale vs the Colts
LY. The Colts still rate homefield edge despite the “Crown Jewel” in their
schedule vs the Titans not selling out as they are a team built around
playing on turf. QB Manning only threw for 173 yds (67%) with a 1-0 ratio
but RB James had 120 yds (4.0 ypc) LW vs the Titans. The Colts were never
threatened after the 8 min mark in the 2Q winning easily as our 4* NFL
September Game of the Month. QB Brunell struggled LW throwing for 122 yds
(59%) and Byron Leftwich was put in during garbage time and he threw for 92
yds (87%) with a 1-0 ratio. The Colts showed they can play physical defense
LW and have provided 2 straight wins for us on the Late Phones and we like
them this week as well. FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 34 Jacksonville 17
NFL OTHER GAMES:
Pittsburgh 23 CINCINNATI 16 - This is the 4th consecutive year that this
game has been sold out. This is only the 9th sellout in Paul Brown Stadium
history. Pitt is 2-1 ATS in those games with SU wins by 27 and 20 pts but
lost SU 26-23 in 2001 as a 7 pt AF. It is only a 4 hour trip from
Pittsburgh and LY 20,000 Steelers fans made the trip and the same is
expected TY. The Steelers have outFD’d Cincy 42-35 and outgained them
799-620. The Steelers are 8-2 ATS when favored by 6 or less but 2-7-1 ATS
when favored by 6.5 or more. Cincy is 1-7 ATS the last 2 seasons as a HD.
This is the Bengals 3rd straight game vs a pass oriented offense and Tommy
Maddox has thrown for 580 yds (65%) with a 4-3 ratio. The Steelers continue
to struggle rushing the ball as they were held to 8 yds (1.1 ypc) until
finishing with 55 yds (3.7 ypc) vs the Chiefs. He faces a Bengals’ defense
that allowed just 237 net yds to the Raiders LW. The Bengals shook up the
OL LW after Kitna was sacked 4 times vs the Bronco’s and it responded with
416 yds offense (303 passing) and cut the sacks in half. RB Dillon hurt his
knee LW and PIT has a travelling HF edge here.
Minnesota 27 DETROIT 23 - The dog is 6-2 ATS the L/8 meetings and the
series is 2-7 O/U in Minnesota. The Lions are 6-2 ATS the L4Y in this
series, 10-4 as a HD and 10-5 its last 15 in division play. The Vikings are
off LW’s Sunday Night game vs the Bears and those results are unavailable.
Both teams battled the Packers on their home turf. The Vikings outgained
them 201-95 in the 1H and a 20-3 lead before Favre led a rally generating a
209-136 yd edge for the Pack in the 2H. The Lions did not fare as well
being outFD’d 11-4 and outgained 216-84 while taking a 17-6 deficit into
the lockerroom at the end of the 1H. The Packers let up in the 2H and the
Lions had a 10-6 FD edge and 209-116 advantage. The Vikings host the 49ers
next week and it’ll be interesting to see if they are looking ahead to that
game instead of taking care of a division foe. Detroit starts a 2 game road
trip vs Denver and San Francisco next week. Arizona slaughtered Detroit
statistically two weeks ago and Tice is 6-1 ATS pending LW vs division foes
but we will let the line decide where we land here.
TENNESSEE 29 New Orleans 12 - The Titans are 12-3 SU, 11-4 ATS and 10-5 O/U
at home vs non-division teams since 1999. They are 7-1 SU, ATS, O/U hosting
NFC teams. This is the Saints first grass game of the year and they went
4-1 ATS LY on it. The Saints are 2-7 SU and ATS as a non-division dog since
1999. They are 5-10-2 the L/17 vs the AFC. The Saints opened the season
with 8 new defensive starters in 11 positions. The Titans started the
season with 10 of 11 starters from 2002 with C Tom Ackerman missing the
last 2 games with a knee injury. LW RB Deuce McAlllister rushed for 96 yds
(4.8 ypc) vs Houston and the Titans allowed 120 (4.0 ypc) to RB James and
DT Haynesworth left LW with an elbow injury and his status is uncertain.
Steve McNair is at his best when injured and we refuse to overreact to a
Saints defense that held David Carr to just 213 yds (47%) and registered
five sacks. We still feel the Saints are one of the weaker teams in the NFC
and The Coliseum home crowd will let themselves be heard again.
Kansas City 26 HOUSTON 12 - This is KC’s first road game of the year
(covered the L/3) and Houston’s first home game of the year. The Chiefs are
8-3 ATS and O/U the L/11 vs non-division teams. The Chief’s overcame 10-0
and 17-7 deficits before shifting gears and beating the Steelers last week.
Priest Holmes and the Chief offensive juggernaut continue to roll. Holmes
now has 311 all purpose yards in just two games and is clearly in good
health. Special teams and a revamped defense also were major factors in
LW’s win. The 2nd year Texans are a respectable 6-6 ATS vs non-division
teams as teams have had a tendency to take them lightly. Texans starting NT
Seth Payne went down with a knee injury LW and 3rd Rd DC Antwan Peek the
week before. LY the starting 11 of the Texans defense only missed a single
start which hid their lack of depth. Vermeil seems to have this team on a
mission and should be able to maintain their focus here.
N.Y. Giants at WASHINGTON - This is Washington’s first game vs a 1st string
QB this season (Testaverde and Johnson). They held the both of them to a
combined 302 yds passing (52%) with a 2-2 ratio. The dog is 7-2 the L/9
games and the Redskins are 6-3 ATS the L/9. The Giants have a bye next week
and are 6-1 ATS vs a division team before the break and 9-5 ATS overall.
They faced Dallas on MNF LW and those results are unknown. The Redskins are
7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS at home catching a team off a MNF game. The Redskins
host the Patriots next. We don’t want to overreact to QB Ramsey’s 356 yds
passing (64%) with a 2-0 ratio LW. We also have not seen the Giants on MNF
and want to see how they do vs the Cowboys and how their OL responds before
making a call here.
St. Louis 24 SEATTLE 23 - These two are part of the reshuffled NFC West
division and in the first year of division play the home team won and
covered. Seattle has a bye next week and are 10-4 ATS before it. The big
topic of this game is of course the health of Kurt Warner. In his L/8
consecutive starts (including the SB) he has posted a 5-14 ratio, been
sacked 29 times and fmbl’d 15 times while passing for 223 ypg. He is 0-8 SU
and ATS. In QB Bulgers L/8 starts he has passed for 258 ypg and has a 17-6
ratio, been sacked 15 times but LW was the first time he faced a pass
defense ranked higher than 20th. He is 7-1 SU and 3-4-1 ATS in his starts.
Seahawks QB Hasselbeck has a 16-7 ratio, been sacked 14 times and passed
for 269 ypg. He is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS the L/8. We like the Rams here if and
only if Bulger remains the starter.
SAN DIEGO 23 Baltimore 13 - The Ravens haven’t had to travel this far west
since their last road game in 2000. Ironically, they beat the Chargers 24-3
as a 14 pt HF the week before they made that trip. Baltimore is 12-4 ATS as
an AD S/’99 while SD is only 3-8 ATS the L4Y as a HF. Ravens QB Boller on
the road vs the Steelers threw for 152 yds (51%) with a 1-1 ratio but will
not likely get 43 attempts here. RB Jamal Lewis was promised 20 carries by
HC Brian Billick and responded with the biggest rushing day in NFL history
shredding Cleveland for 295 yds (9.8 ypc). The Chargers defense allowed 129
yds (10.8 ypc) 1H yds to Clinton Portis. The Raven defense rebounded LW
holding Cleveland to just 70 1H yards. The Chargers Tomlinson rushed for 93
yds (5.8 ypc) vs Denver while the Ravens allowed 60 yds (3.0 ypc) overland
to the Browns. Chargers WR David Boston was out LW with a bruised heel and
will be out until he’s 100%. Boller’s stats so far this year have failed to
impress us but the Ravens have the defensive edge. Marty is an old school
HC and has a more experienced QB with an equally if not more talented RB at
his disposal. He should get the win here vs a travelling Ravens team a team
who may be in a bit of a letdown after defeating who they consider to be
their arch rival.
SAN FRANCISCO 28 Cleveland 24 - This is the new Browns 3rd West Coast game
since their return. The last time they traveled out here was in the 4th
game of 2000 when they lost to the Raiders 36-10 as a 10.5 pt AD. The
Browns are 2-5 ATS away vs NFC teams and 8-3 ATS the L/11 as a dog. The
49ers are 3-8 ATS and O/U at home after playing the Rams. The Browns host
the Bengals next week while the 49ers travel to the Vikings. The 49ers OL
is beat up and HC Erickson said before LW’s game that he had never seen so
many injuries at one position particularly the OL. All 5 starting OL have
ankle injuries of some degree. The Browns defense is as inconsistent as it
is young as after holding Edgerrin James to 67 yds (4.5 ypc) they let Jamal
Lewis explode for 180 yds (11.3 ypc) in the 1H LW. The Browns were outFD’d
9-1 at the half and outgained 255-63. The 49ers outFD’d the Rams 10-5 at
the end of the 1H LW and outgained them 191-67. Browns HC Davis might pull
QB Holcomb after his last 2 dismal performances for Tim Couch. At any rate
he and DC Dave Campo will “motivate” the Browns defense enough to keep it
within the number here.
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