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Sunday NFL..........
Here is my card for week three. Lets see it things turn around this week. Play at your own risk!
5 STAR: NY Giants (+2.5) OVER WASHINGTON
I really like the Giants in this spot. I feel that we have some nice value in this line due to Washington's 2-0 start and the Giants falling on National TV Monday night to the Cowboys. The Giants have held the edge in the games played in the nation's capital, going 6-4-1 straight up and 7-4 against the spread in the last 11 meetings. The Giants are 11-3 against the spread in road games after allowing 30 points or more in their last game since 1992 and 6-0 against the spread after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. I just don't see the Skins as a 3-0 team, and they are 4-16 against the spread in home games in the first month of the season since 1992, 1-5 against the spread after an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons and 1-6 against the spread in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Redskins are also pretty banged up and several players will be playing with injuries. Quarterback Patrick Ramsey has a shulder injury, Laveranues Coles (neck), Trung Canidate (ankle), Ladell Betts (hip), and starting cornerback Fred Smoot was injured in practice after taking a hit to the head from safety Matt Bowen. Smoot's availability for Sunday's game against the Giants is in question, which would be a significant setback for the Redskins. Take the points here, but I don't think we will need them!
3 STAR: Cleveland (+7) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
The Niners come into this game with their two stars Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens banged up for a 3 point overtime loss at St. Louis last week. Cleveland comes in at 0-2, and will be looking for a big defensive performance this week after being embarrassed by Jamal Lewis and the Ravens when Lewis rushed for an NFL record 295 yards. I look for an inspired effort by the Browns, while the 49ers might have a tough time getting up for Cleveland after last weeks overtime loss to rival St. Louis. In fact, home favorites off an extremely close road loss of 3 points or less, in the first half of the season are only 13-39 against the spread in their next game over the last 5 seasons. I look for the Cleveland offense to also come alive this week, as the Browns are 8-2 against the spread after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in last game over the last 3 seasons. This looks like a big number for the Niners to cover, Cleveland has covered four of its last five games as an underdog of a touchdown or more. Take the points here!
3 STAR: MIAMI (-3) OVER Buffalo
Miami needs a strong effort at home in front of their fans after losing their pathetic home opener to the Texans. The Dolphins have handled the Bills well in south Flordia, winning seven of nine straight up and going 6-3 against the spread in that span. The Bills are off to great start, out scoring their first two opponents 69-17, but I look for them to come back down to earth in this game because Buffalo is only 1-5 against the spread after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points since 1992. The Dolphins defense did not give up alot of points, but gave up alot of yards to the Jets last week, but expect a strong effort from them here because the Dolphins are 12-2 against the spread in home games after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game since 1992 and 6-1 against the spread in home games after allowing 14 points or less in their last game over the last 3 seasons. The Dolphins will look to pound the ball with Ricky Williams, if the do that well the Bills will be in trouble, Buffalo is only is 5-18 against the spread when they allow 150 or more rushing yards since 1992. Lay the three with the Fish!
2 STAR: NY Jets (+6.5) OVER NEW ENGLAND
The Jets have had great success at New England recently. New York has won five of the last six games straight up at Foxboro and are 6-0 against the spread in that span. The Patriots got a big 31-10 win last week at Philly, but they are only 10-25 against the spread after scoring 30 points or more in their last game since 1992. New England is also only 16-33 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992 and favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after playing their last game on the road, in the first half of the season are only 41-77 against the spread. The Jets should bounce back with a good effort here after the loss last week at home to Miami, as New York is 16-4 against the spread after a home loss against a division rival since 1992 and they are 6-1 against the spread in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets!!!
2 STAR: ATLANTA (+4) OVER Tampa Bay
Tampa was sloppy last week in a home loss to Carolina, and now travel to Hotlanta to face the Falcons. Tampa has owned this series lately, winning the last five games straight up and against the spread and now they face the Vickless Falcons and are only a 4 point favorite? The defending Super Bowl champion as a road favorite has been a money burning play over the years, and the Bucs are just 4-9 against the spread as a road favorite since 2000. Also, the Bucs are only 1-5 against the spread in road games after scoring 14 points or less over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 14-5 against the spread in home games after a loss by 6 or less points since 1992, 5-1 against the spread after an upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 against the spread after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Underdogs in general, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 48-22 against the spread over the last 5 seasons and underdogs after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in their last game are a solid 31-9 against the spread the last five seasons. Solid technical spot here for the Falcons, take the points!
2 STAR: DETROIT (+3.5) OVER Minnesota
The Vikings beat the Bears last Sunday night after opening up with a road win at Green Bay, but I am still not convinced that they are a worthy road favorite. The Vikings have now won two straight road games going back to last season, but had dropped 17 straight on the road before those two wins. Also, road favorites in conference games that are coming off of a home win by 10 points or more are only 130-194 against the spread since 1983 and the Vikings are 1-6 against the spread in road games after a home win. The Vikings have won six of the last eight meetings with the Lions, but Detroit is 6-2 against the spread in those games. The Lions are also 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen games as a home underdog. Take the points here!
2 STAR: ARIZONA (+7.5) OVER Green Bay
Green Bay may look like the easiest play on the board this week, but I am going to go the other way here. The Packers just can't be trusted as a road favorite, Green Bay was 0-4 against the spread as a road favorite last year, and lost three of those games straight up. Just because it is the lowly Cardinals does not help matters for the Packers either, because they are only 4-14 against the spread versus teams with a winning percentage of less than 25% since 1992. Road favorites in conference games, after a home win by 10 points or more are only 130-194 since 1983 and road favorites that out rushed their last opponent by 100 or more yards are only 26-56 against the spread. I look for the Cardinals to play better this week, Arizona is 12-4 against the
spread in home games after two consecutive games where they committed three or more turnovers since 1992. Take the home dog here!
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-2 (-1.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 1-5 (-13.5 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 0-2-1 (-4.4 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 3-9-1 (-18.9 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $1890.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
5 STAR: NY Giants (+2.5) OVER WASHINGTON
I really like the Giants in this spot. I feel that we have some nice value in this line due to Washington's 2-0 start and the Giants falling on National TV Monday night to the Cowboys. The Giants have held the edge in the games played in the nation's capital, going 6-4-1 straight up and 7-4 against the spread in the last 11 meetings. The Giants are 11-3 against the spread in road games after allowing 30 points or more in their last game since 1992 and 6-0 against the spread after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. I just don't see the Skins as a 3-0 team, and they are 4-16 against the spread in home games in the first month of the season since 1992, 1-5 against the spread after an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons and 1-6 against the spread in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Redskins are also pretty banged up and several players will be playing with injuries. Quarterback Patrick Ramsey has a shulder injury, Laveranues Coles (neck), Trung Canidate (ankle), Ladell Betts (hip), and starting cornerback Fred Smoot was injured in practice after taking a hit to the head from safety Matt Bowen. Smoot's availability for Sunday's game against the Giants is in question, which would be a significant setback for the Redskins. Take the points here, but I don't think we will need them!
3 STAR: Cleveland (+7) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
The Niners come into this game with their two stars Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens banged up for a 3 point overtime loss at St. Louis last week. Cleveland comes in at 0-2, and will be looking for a big defensive performance this week after being embarrassed by Jamal Lewis and the Ravens when Lewis rushed for an NFL record 295 yards. I look for an inspired effort by the Browns, while the 49ers might have a tough time getting up for Cleveland after last weeks overtime loss to rival St. Louis. In fact, home favorites off an extremely close road loss of 3 points or less, in the first half of the season are only 13-39 against the spread in their next game over the last 5 seasons. I look for the Cleveland offense to also come alive this week, as the Browns are 8-2 against the spread after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in last game over the last 3 seasons. This looks like a big number for the Niners to cover, Cleveland has covered four of its last five games as an underdog of a touchdown or more. Take the points here!
3 STAR: MIAMI (-3) OVER Buffalo
Miami needs a strong effort at home in front of their fans after losing their pathetic home opener to the Texans. The Dolphins have handled the Bills well in south Flordia, winning seven of nine straight up and going 6-3 against the spread in that span. The Bills are off to great start, out scoring their first two opponents 69-17, but I look for them to come back down to earth in this game because Buffalo is only 1-5 against the spread after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points since 1992. The Dolphins defense did not give up alot of points, but gave up alot of yards to the Jets last week, but expect a strong effort from them here because the Dolphins are 12-2 against the spread in home games after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game since 1992 and 6-1 against the spread in home games after allowing 14 points or less in their last game over the last 3 seasons. The Dolphins will look to pound the ball with Ricky Williams, if the do that well the Bills will be in trouble, Buffalo is only is 5-18 against the spread when they allow 150 or more rushing yards since 1992. Lay the three with the Fish!
2 STAR: NY Jets (+6.5) OVER NEW ENGLAND
The Jets have had great success at New England recently. New York has won five of the last six games straight up at Foxboro and are 6-0 against the spread in that span. The Patriots got a big 31-10 win last week at Philly, but they are only 10-25 against the spread after scoring 30 points or more in their last game since 1992. New England is also only 16-33 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992 and favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after playing their last game on the road, in the first half of the season are only 41-77 against the spread. The Jets should bounce back with a good effort here after the loss last week at home to Miami, as New York is 16-4 against the spread after a home loss against a division rival since 1992 and they are 6-1 against the spread in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets!!!
2 STAR: ATLANTA (+4) OVER Tampa Bay
Tampa was sloppy last week in a home loss to Carolina, and now travel to Hotlanta to face the Falcons. Tampa has owned this series lately, winning the last five games straight up and against the spread and now they face the Vickless Falcons and are only a 4 point favorite? The defending Super Bowl champion as a road favorite has been a money burning play over the years, and the Bucs are just 4-9 against the spread as a road favorite since 2000. Also, the Bucs are only 1-5 against the spread in road games after scoring 14 points or less over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 14-5 against the spread in home games after a loss by 6 or less points since 1992, 5-1 against the spread after an upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 against the spread after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Underdogs in general, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 48-22 against the spread over the last 5 seasons and underdogs after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in their last game are a solid 31-9 against the spread the last five seasons. Solid technical spot here for the Falcons, take the points!
2 STAR: DETROIT (+3.5) OVER Minnesota
The Vikings beat the Bears last Sunday night after opening up with a road win at Green Bay, but I am still not convinced that they are a worthy road favorite. The Vikings have now won two straight road games going back to last season, but had dropped 17 straight on the road before those two wins. Also, road favorites in conference games that are coming off of a home win by 10 points or more are only 130-194 against the spread since 1983 and the Vikings are 1-6 against the spread in road games after a home win. The Vikings have won six of the last eight meetings with the Lions, but Detroit is 6-2 against the spread in those games. The Lions are also 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen games as a home underdog. Take the points here!
2 STAR: ARIZONA (+7.5) OVER Green Bay
Green Bay may look like the easiest play on the board this week, but I am going to go the other way here. The Packers just can't be trusted as a road favorite, Green Bay was 0-4 against the spread as a road favorite last year, and lost three of those games straight up. Just because it is the lowly Cardinals does not help matters for the Packers either, because they are only 4-14 against the spread versus teams with a winning percentage of less than 25% since 1992. Road favorites in conference games, after a home win by 10 points or more are only 130-194 since 1983 and road favorites that out rushed their last opponent by 100 or more yards are only 26-56 against the spread. I look for the Cardinals to play better this week, Arizona is 12-4 against the
spread in home games after two consecutive games where they committed three or more turnovers since 1992. Take the home dog here!
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-2 (-1.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 1-5 (-13.5 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 0-2-1 (-4.4 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 3-9-1 (-18.9 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $1890.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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