Monday Trends and Indexes 12/24

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Monday, December 24

Good Luck on day #358 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

NCAA FOOTBALL:
For trends & indexes for all the NCAA Bowl Games, please look for separate thread:
“2007-2008 BOWL SEASON TREND FACTORS AND INDEXES”

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Six-pack for Monday

-- Florida State will have only 43 scholarship players for its bowl game against Kentucky, less than an NFL team has. They will also have some walk-ons to utilize, if they want.

-- Has one team ever had better players wear same number like the Lions' #20? Lem Barney-Billy Sims-Barry Sanders, now thats three dynamite guys who wore same number.

-- I don't like scarves; they don't keep you warm enough. If you live in cold weather, just buy a parka with bulky neck.

-- Hey, the sun goes down later every day now. Downhill to spring, thats what I'm thinking.

-- Memo to the nitwit who directed Missouri-Illinois hoop game on ESPN2 Saturday; when one team presses for 40 minutes, never take the camera off the ball. You miss stuff.

-- Sunday was first time Giants won a game played in NY State since they moved to the Meadowlands 30 yrs ago.

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Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday...........

13) No Jaguars in Pro Bowl? There might be 45 or 50 in Super Bowl, the way they're playing.

12) Jaguar assistants Dirk Koetter, Mike Shula are having lot more fun this year, I am guessing, after being fired last year by their college teams. Arizona State struck gold with Dennis Erickson, Alabama spent lot of gold to go 6-6 with Saban.

11) Giants won last seven road games, which doesn't happen a lot on NFL. They ran ball for 291 yards at Buffalo. Rarely have I heard such negativity about a 10-5 team, but the Giant fans in this area aren't into this particular team.

10) You have to believe Bill Parcells will circle Miami's games with the Patriots next year, when schedule comes out. Hard to tell just how far away the Fish are-- I'm saying Patriots-Miami is an early season primetime TV game next season.

9) I laugh when announcers say Dolphin players will play lot harder because Parcells was hired; wasn't the previous boss evaluating players for next season? Why more with Parcells?

8) Eagles had 294 total yards in first half at Superdome; Andy Reid has coached this team well- they're still competing hard, but the payoff will be next year, not this one.

7) Browns started four of their 11 drives in Bengal territory, but came up empty on three of the four drives, which is why they lost by five points, and might miss the playoffs.

6) Tennessee at Indianapolis is the Sunday night game next week, a playoff elimination game for Jeff Fisher's Titans.

5) If Mike Nolan fires his offensive coordinator, they'll have their fourth OC in four seasons in 2008. Not good.

4) Shaun Hill is now 2-0 as 49ers' starting QB; if he plays well at Cleveland next week, the summer of '08 could have little bit of QB controversy with Alex Smith in training camp.

3) What is Arizona going to do next year? You know they'll want Matt Leinart to start, but no way is he as goos as Kurt Warner. Another interesting QB situation.

2) You think the Packers will practice punt protection during their bye week?

1) How about the AFC playoffs, the weekend of January 12? Could be Jacksonville-Indy/Chargers-Patriots.........nice.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

MONDAY, DECEMBER 24

Game 343-344: Denver at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 128.041; San Diego 138.363
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 10; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 8 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-8 1/2); Over

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

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Monday, December 24
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DENVER (6 - 8) at SAN DIEGO (9 - 5) - 12/24/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 16

Monday, December 24th

Denver at San Diego, 8:30 EST ESPN
Denver: 2-9 ATS vs. division opponents
San Diego: 17-6 ATS off a win by 21+ points

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Week 16 NFL schedule

Monday, December 24

Broncos (6-8) @ Chargers (9-5) — San Diego is rolling, (4-0 SU, vs spread last four games) with wins at home by 37-18-2-25-14 points in last five home games. Cutler is from Santa Claus, IN, hard to buck him on Christmas Eve, but Denver lost three of last four games, giving up 31+ points in all three losses; they’re 1-5 in last six road games, with losses by 18-37-3-14-18 pts. In last three games, Norv’s offense ran ball for 191-148-274 yards; they crushed Broncos 41-3 in first meeting, running ball for 214 yards. Shanahan cut the punter this week, so he must be in great mood. Six of last seven Denver games went over the total. Denver is 2-4 vs spread as underdog this season- this is their fourth road game in last five weeks.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


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Tips and Trends
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Monday, December 24

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (ESPN | 8:30 PM ET)

San Diego likely needs to win the final 2 games of the regular season in order to secure the #3 seed in the AFC playoff race. That would mean a trip to Indianapolis rather than New England in the divisional round if the Chargers win their first playoff game. They have won 5 in a row, which has some insiders wondering whether or not the team is peaking too soon. "Sometimes you just have to let the course of a season play out," San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson said. "At some point it has to happen. That's just how it is. For us not to be doing it, it's happening now. It's just coming at a later time, you know what I mean? And for us, it's great, because if we can be hot going into the playoffs, Whoa, Nellie! Whoa, Nellie!" EDGE: CHARGERS
Tomlinson is averaging 129 yards during San Diego's 4-game winning streak, scoring 6 touchdowns over that stretch. He also has an outstanding shot at winning his second straight NFL rushing title after Pittsburgh's Willie Parker broke his leg on Thursday night. EDGE: CHARGERS
The Broncos were eliminated from playoff contention with a loss at Houston and wins by Cleveland and San Diego last week. However, they will be trying to avoid their first losing season since 1999 and need to win their last 2 games to finish 8-8. "Your career is based on how you perform and if you don't perform, it'll show on tape and guys will know what type of heart you have," Denver All-Pro CB Champ Bailey said. "We're aware of how (the Chargers) beat us and I know they're going to think that they could do it again. So, we've got to go out and play our game. We're capable of playing well. We've just got to do it." EDGE: BRONCOS
Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. AFC opponents.
Chargers are 16-5-3 ATS in their last 24 vs. AFC West opponents.
Broncos are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The OVER is 9-1 in Denver's 10 games vs. AFC opponents.
The OVER is 7-1 in Denver's last 8 games in December.

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National Football League – Preview

NFL

Monday, December 24

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NFL Preview
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Monday Football Preview

LaDainian Tomlinson and the San Diego Chargers will be looking for their fifth straight victory when they take on the rival Denver Broncos in Monday's Christmas Eve contest.

The 9-5 Chargers, who are the runaway winners of the AFC West division, have reeled off consecutive wins over the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans, and Detroit Lions. And while that's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents the streak has allowed the Chargers to seal up a postseason berth and start playoff preparations.

Tomlinson rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns in San Diego's 51-14 trouncing of the Lions last weekend. Backup running back Darren Sproles got a chunk of playing time in the easy win as well, and he made the most of it with 122 yards rushing and two touchdowns on 25 carries. Watch for LT to get some plays off on Monday night as well.

Philip Rivers went 14-of-21 for 142 yards passing against Detroit, with one touchdown strike and no interceptions. Brandon Manumaleuna had the TD catch, while Chris Chambers led the receiving corps with four catches for 69 yards on Sunday afternoon.

The Chargers had no trouble covering the 9.5-point spread against the Lions in that contest, which put their ATS record at 9-5 on the season as well. San Diego's output alone made last week's game an OVER result (the posted total was 46), and they're now 7-5-2 on the OVER/UNDER this season. As well, the Chargers are 6-1 against-the-spread at Qualcomm Stadium this year, and they're also 8-3 ATS as the favored team.

Denver fell to 6-8 on the season with a 31-13 road loss to the Houston Texans last Thursday night. Jay Cutler completed 27-of-39 pass attempts for 254 yards in that game, with one touchdown strike and no interceptions. Tony Scheffler caught seven passes for 100 yards and a score, and Brandon Marshall had 11 catches for 107 yards.

The Broncos couldn't get much going on the ground against the Texans, with Selvin Young and Travis Henry combining for just 61 yards rushing. Young fared the better of the two with 34 yards on eight carries, while Henry was held to 27 yards on 10 attempts.

Bettors have had a hard time making money off the Broncos this season, as their against-the-spread loss in Week 15 put them at just 4-10 ATS. The combined score of that game was an UNDER result, and Denver is 10-3-1 on the OVER/UNDER so far this year. As well the Broncos are 1-6 ATS on the road in '07, and 2-5 ATS as the underdog.

The oddsmakers have the Chargers pegged as 8.5-point home favorites in this matchup, with the total listed at 47 points. San Diego was favored on the road over Denver earlier this season, and they walked away with a 41-3 victory. The Chargers also knocked off the Broncos in both their meetings last season, getting two ATS wins.

Here are the official injury reports for both the Broncos and Chargers for Monday night:

Denver Injuries
Ian Gold LB Doubtful Week 16 (knee)
Daniel Graham TE Questionable Week 16 (ankle)
Brandon Stokley WR Questionable Week 16 (knee)
John Engelberger DE Probable Week 16 (shoulder)
Chris Myers C Probable Week 16 (ankle)
Javon Walker WR Probable Week 16 (knee)

San Diego Injuries
Lorenzo Neal RB Out Week 16 (fibula)
Luis Castillo DE Questionable Week 16 (ankle)
Shawne Merriman LB Questionable Week 16 (knee)
Michael Turner RB Questionable Week 16 (shoulder)
Philip Rivers QB Probable Week 16 (knee)

After playing in San Diego the Broncos will head home for their final game of the season against the Vikings. The Chargers will play in Oakland against the Raiders next Sunday.

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National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL
NFL poolies' cheat sheet


Monday, December 24

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Cheat Sheet
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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 16

Denver at San Diego (-9)

Why Broncos cover: With both Javon Walker and Brandon Stokley hurting, Brandon Marshall has stepped up his play and has 21 catches, 222 yards receiving and two TDs in his last two games. Jay Cutler has five TDs and zero interceptions in his last two games.

Why Chargers cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. LaDainian Tomlinson has scored 10 touchdowns in his last five games against Denver. Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Have picked off opposing quarterbacks 27 times this season.

Total (47): Over is 5-1 in Broncos’ last six road games.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Bettor’s Need to Know

NFL


Monday, December 24

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What bettors need to know: Broncos at Chargers
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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-9, 47)

All to play for

At first glance, there’s not much on the line in this week’s Monday nighter. Denver is out of the playoffs while the Chargers have already clinched the division. But both teams insist they still have unfinished business.

The Broncos are seeking revenge for an embarrassing loss earlier this season. The Chargers came to Denver in October and recorded a 41-3 victory, which had Invesco Field almost empty by the fourth quarter.

“This is the NFL and some people think it’s above pride and issues like that, but it’s not,” safety John Lynch told the Colorado Springs Gazette. “That was humiliating and embarrassing.”

The Chargers secured their fourth straight AFC West title with last weekend’s 51-14 blowout win over Detroit, but they still need a victory Monday to secure the No. 3 seed for the playoffs.

That would ensure that if they win their opening game of the postseason, they would avoid having to go to New England for the second game. Instead, the No. 3 seeding would see San Diego face Indianapolis in the climate-controlled RCA Dome.

“There are a lot of different scenarios, so I'm not going to be caught up in that,” Chargers coach Norv Turner told the San Diego Union Tribune. “We want to go win our next two football games.”

Merriman ready

Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman claims he will feature in Monday night’s game after missing last weekend’s win over Detroit with a sprained left knee.

"I've been doing pretty much everything the whole week," Merriman told reporters after Saturday’s practice. "I feel good, I'm moving around good and I'm expecting to play."

Merriman has been pestering medical staff and his coach all week to let him play, saying he couldn’t stand being on the sidelines last weekend.

"It drove me nuts," he said of missing out. "I didn't know what to do. But hopefully I won't be sitting this week because I've been practicing all week."

So the deal is that he wears a brace on the knee in order to get some playing time.

"Sometimes it hampers my change of direction and it prevents me from doing certain things," he said of the brace. "But I'll be good."

Merriman is not the Chargers’ only injury worry this week. Defensive end Luis Castillo (ankle) and running back Michael Turner (shoulder) will be game-day decisions, while defensive tackle Jamal Williams (ankle) is listed as questionable.

Tomlinson turns it around

San Diego lost three of its first four games when LaDainian Tomlinson made a slow start to the season. As soon as his form improved, the Chargers started winning. They are now on a four-game streak.

"Sometimes you just have to let the course of a season play out," Tomlinson told The Associated Press. "At some point it has to happen. That's just how it is. For us not to be doing it, it's happening now.

“It's just coming at a later time, you know what I mean? And for us, it's great, because if we can be hot going into the playoffs, Whoa, Nellie! Whoa, Nellie!”

Tomlinson ran for a total of 130 yards and one touchdown in his first three games, two of which the Chargers lost. During the current streak he is averaging 129 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

He has 1,772 yards for the season and is battling Adrian Peterson and Willie Parker for the rushing title. Last season’s league MVP is now looking forward to getting it done in the playoffs.

"We'd like to say we're definitely a contender. We've got to prove it," Tomlinson told AP.

"When you get to the playoffs, it's totally different. You've got more pressure on you and also less room for error, and so you've really got to take advantage of your opportunities. When we get there, that's one thing we're going to talk about."

Head to head

The Chargers have won, and covered, in three straight games against Denver. They are also an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against AFC teams. The last three meetings have gone over the total.

San Diego is 9-5-0 ATS for the season, while the Broncos are 4-10-0. Six of the last seven Broncos games have gone over the total.

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National Football League – Recent Trends

NFL
Recent Trends

Monday, December 24

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Recent Trends
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Denver:
Over is 9-1 in DEN last 10 vs. AFC.
Over is 7-1 in DEN last 8 games in December.
DEN are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

San Diego:
SD are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
SD are 16-5-3 ATS in their last 24 vs. AFC West.
Over is 6-2 in SD last 8 games in Week 16.

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National Football League – In Depth Trends

NFL
In Depth Trends

Monday, December 24

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In Depth Trends
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Trends - Denver at San Diego

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher.
Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

Denver

Broncos are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss.
Broncos are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games on grass.
Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Broncos are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 vs. AFC.
Broncos are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Broncos are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Broncos are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Broncos are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC West.
Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

San Diego

Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
Chargers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Chargers are 16-5-3 ATS in their last 24 vs. AFC West.
Chargers are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Chargers are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Chargers are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chargers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Chargers are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games on grass.
Chargers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Chargers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 16.
Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.


O/U Trends

Denver

Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 vs. AFC West.
Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games as a road underdog.
Over is 7-0 in Broncos last 7 games as an underdog.
Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 11-1 in Broncos last 12 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 9-1 in Broncos last 10 vs. AFC.
Over is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 games in December.
Over is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 road games.
Over is 17-4 in Broncos last 21 games on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 Monday games.
Over is 16-5 in Broncos last 21 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Under is 6-2 in Broncos last 8 games in Week 16.
Over is 20-7-1 in Broncos last 28 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 20-7-1 in Broncos last 28 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 19-7 in Broncos last 26 games overall.

San Diego

Over is 4-0-1 in Chargers last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 Monday games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Chargers last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 8-2-2 in Chargers last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-2 in Chargers last 7 vs. AFC.
Over is 6-2 in Chargers last 8 games in Week 16.
Over is 9-3 in Chargers last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 11-4-2 in Chargers last 17 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 13-5 in Chargers last 18 vs. AFC West.
Under is 5-2 in Chargers last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 7-3 in Chargers last 10 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Under is 7-3-2 in Chargers last 12 games following a ATS win.

Head to Head
No trends available.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Weather

NFL

National Football League Weather

Monday, December 24th

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers, 8:00 p.m.
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Inside the Lines

NFL


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NFL - Inside the Lines
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Denver (6-8 SU, 4-10 ATS) at San Diego (9-5 SU and ATS)

The surging Chargers look to maintain their grip on the No. 3 spot in the AFC playoffs when they host the Broncos in a primetime Christmas Eve matchup at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego.

The Chargers turned their season around on Oct. 7 with a 41-3 dismantling of the Broncos in Denver, easily covering as one-point favorites. Since that game San Diego has won eight of 10 SU and ATS, including the last four in a row, and clinched the AFC West crown with last week’s 51-14 rout of the Lions as a 9½-point home chalk. The Chargers forced five turnovers and had a 276-26 yard edge in rushing, while the 51 points were the most for the team in 21 years.

Denver’s 31-13 loss to the Texans last week as a 2½-point road favorite eliminated the Broncos from any playoff contention. With that setback, Denver dropped to 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four overall and 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six on the highway.

San Diego has won the last three meetings with the Broncos (3-0 ATS), including a 48-20 home victory last year as a nine-point chalk. The Chargers, who have scored 35 points or more in each their three wins over Denver, hasn’t won four in a row in this rivarly since 1967-68.

The straight-up winner is 7-0-3 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The winner has also covered the spread in every Chargers game this season.

The Broncos are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against teams with a winning record.

Chargers’ RB LaDainian Tomlinson has stepped up his production, averaging 129 rushing yards per game during the team’s four-game winning streak. In the last three games, San Diego is averaging 32.7 points and a whopping 204.3 rushing yards per contest. On the opposite end, the Chargers are allowing just 13.7 points per game and limiting the opposition to 81.7 rushing yards in the last three.

San Diego has dominated its division, going 16-5-3 ATS in its last 24 against AFC West squads. Also, the Chargers are on further ATS runs of 7-1 ATS against the AFC, 15-3 as a home favorite of 3½ to 10 points and 11-5 at home against a team with a losing road mark.

The over is 11-3 in Broncos games this season, 5-1 in their last six on the road, 9-1 in their last 10 against AFC competition and 7-1 in their last eight December kickoffs. Also, the Chargers have topped the total in their last two home games, and the over is 3-0 in the last three series meetings between these rivals.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and OVER

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