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Good luck to all! Will probably be adding 4:00 plays.
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Math System Plays This week: 35-20 this year
1) Pittsburgh over St. Louis: Winner
2) Philadelphia over N.O.: My system has line at the Eagles -1.2. I really like Philly but I am laying off them because they may be in for a letdown after a big win in Dallas and there are 2 money line trends favoring the Saints both of which are 34-2. That's too much to go against.
3) New England: System has the line at 32.7. Not playing because of trends favoring the Phins.
4) T.B.: math model has the Bucs as 12 point favs. Not playing this game because they are in a letdown spot.
5) San Diego: Diego -15.5. May be play Monday night.
2* Cinci +3.5 over Cleveland (Buy 1/2 point)
The Bengals are coming off a road loss in San Fran and 10 days of rest to think about that pitiful game. The Browns have been the feel good story of the year and are fighting for a playoff spot, but it will be tough on the road where they are only 3-4. Cinci would love to knock the Browns out of the playoffs. Statistically, the Browns are slightly better, but as we have learned in the NFL the better team does not always win. The Browns rushing game is tough averaging 4.2 YPR (10th) as is their passing game (7.3 YPPA, 9th). But, defensively they are bad allowing 25.6 PPG versus teams that have combined to score 21.6 PPG. They allow 4.5 YPR (30th), and this will come into play this because they expect up to 40 mph winds in Cincinnati. In the air they are also bad allowing 250 YPG (29th). The Bengal's D is not much better allowing 4.2 YPR (21st) and 7.4 YPPA (25th), but over the last 3 games they are 1 yard/play better. Offensively they average 3.7 YPR and 7.1 YPPA (13th). Don't be scared that the Browns are fighting for a playoff spot because over the last 17 years teams that are out of playoff contention are 75-49-4 ATS in weeks 16 and 17 against teams that must win to get into the playoffs. My Super System has Cinci -0.3 so there is good line value in this game. There are 6 trends favoring the Bengals including one that is 31-7 ATS over the last 25 years!
1* K.C. +6 over Detroit
Detroit will be deflated as they started the season 6-2 and now after dropping their last 6 they are out of playoff contention. Detroit's defense is bad allowing 4.2 YPR (19th), 7.3 YPPA (24th), and 258 YPG in the air (second to last). Offensively they gain 4 YPR (16th) and 7.4 YPPA (8th). The Chief's stats aren't stellar but will be enough to cover against a bad Lion team. K.C. averages 3.2 YPR and 7.3 YPPA. Defensively they allow 4.34 YPR (26th) and 7.16 YPPA (23rd). One of the biggest reasons I like the Chiefs is because there are 25 trends favoring them including a 40-16 and 32-10 ATS record. My math system has Detroit -5 so it does not come into play. This line is too high for a sub-par team that has thrown in the towel.
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Math System Plays This week: 35-20 this year
1) Pittsburgh over St. Louis: Winner
2) Philadelphia over N.O.: My system has line at the Eagles -1.2. I really like Philly but I am laying off them because they may be in for a letdown after a big win in Dallas and there are 2 money line trends favoring the Saints both of which are 34-2. That's too much to go against.
3) New England: System has the line at 32.7. Not playing because of trends favoring the Phins.
4) T.B.: math model has the Bucs as 12 point favs. Not playing this game because they are in a letdown spot.
5) San Diego: Diego -15.5. May be play Monday night.
2* Cinci +3.5 over Cleveland (Buy 1/2 point)
The Bengals are coming off a road loss in San Fran and 10 days of rest to think about that pitiful game. The Browns have been the feel good story of the year and are fighting for a playoff spot, but it will be tough on the road where they are only 3-4. Cinci would love to knock the Browns out of the playoffs. Statistically, the Browns are slightly better, but as we have learned in the NFL the better team does not always win. The Browns rushing game is tough averaging 4.2 YPR (10th) as is their passing game (7.3 YPPA, 9th). But, defensively they are bad allowing 25.6 PPG versus teams that have combined to score 21.6 PPG. They allow 4.5 YPR (30th), and this will come into play this because they expect up to 40 mph winds in Cincinnati. In the air they are also bad allowing 250 YPG (29th). The Bengal's D is not much better allowing 4.2 YPR (21st) and 7.4 YPPA (25th), but over the last 3 games they are 1 yard/play better. Offensively they average 3.7 YPR and 7.1 YPPA (13th). Don't be scared that the Browns are fighting for a playoff spot because over the last 17 years teams that are out of playoff contention are 75-49-4 ATS in weeks 16 and 17 against teams that must win to get into the playoffs. My Super System has Cinci -0.3 so there is good line value in this game. There are 6 trends favoring the Bengals including one that is 31-7 ATS over the last 25 years!
1* K.C. +6 over Detroit
Detroit will be deflated as they started the season 6-2 and now after dropping their last 6 they are out of playoff contention. Detroit's defense is bad allowing 4.2 YPR (19th), 7.3 YPPA (24th), and 258 YPG in the air (second to last). Offensively they gain 4 YPR (16th) and 7.4 YPPA (8th). The Chief's stats aren't stellar but will be enough to cover against a bad Lion team. K.C. averages 3.2 YPR and 7.3 YPPA. Defensively they allow 4.34 YPR (26th) and 7.16 YPPA (23rd). One of the biggest reasons I like the Chiefs is because there are 25 trends favoring them including a 40-16 and 32-10 ATS record. My math system has Detroit -5 so it does not come into play. This line is too high for a sub-par team that has thrown in the towel.
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