Sunday Trends and Indexes 12/23

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, December 23

Good Luck on day #357 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

FOOTBALL:
For trends & indexes for all the NCAA Bowl Games, please look for separate thread:
“2007-2008 BOWL SEASON TREND FACTORS AND INDEXES”

[pm530]

Six-pack for Sunday

Sunday is the 30th anniversary of my 18th birthday. Here is a short list of some differences between then and now........

-- The drinking age in '77 was 18; now, you can go to war at 18 and get killed, but you can't buy a beer. Seems wrong.

-- There was no shot clock or 3-pointer in college ball, and we had never heard of Magic or Jordan. Bird we had heard just a little of, but no one had seen him play yet.

-- Hell, there wasn't any ESPN either. There was one or two college hoop games a weekend on TV, and they were not the best games you'd want to see.

-- In December of '77, the Bucs got their first-ever win, after an 0-26 start; in December of '07, thirty years later, Tampa Bay scored their first-ever TD on a kick return.

-- I had a full head of hair 30 years ago; now? Not so much, but I do have a lot of hats now.

-- Things are more confusing now; the best point guard is a Canadian, the best golfer is a black guy. That what makes it interesting, I guess. You just never know.

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Six-packs

(Two earlier “Six-packs” are repeated here.)

More trends to consider for Week 16 of the NFL season

-- Browns covered five of their last six division games.

-- Seahawks covered 15 of last 22 as a home favorite.

-- Eagles covered six of last eight as an underdog.

-- Dolphins are 3-13-1 vs spread in AFC East road games.

-- Chiefs are 5-13-1 vs spread when visiting an NFC team.

-- Giants covered one of last six against the AFC.

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Trends to consider for Week 16 of the NFL season

-- Seahawks covered six of last eight as double digit fave.

-- Packers covered 10 of last 14 division road games.

-- Buffalo is 6-1-1 vs spread when hosting an NFC team.

-- Browns are 11-5-1 vs spread in last 17 road games.

-- Colts covered one of last eight division games.

-- Buccaneers covered two of last 10 as a road favorite.

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[pm530]

Sunday's List of 13: Ranting after difficult sports Saturday

13) BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall doesn't know how a game should be managed, which is a nice way of saying that as a as a game coach, he's an idiot.

12) His Cougars led UCLA 17-6 with 0:30 left in the first half Saturday, UCLA punts near midfield. For some reason (we are assuming lack of coaching) the kid fair-catches ball at his 7. Why risk catching a ball when you aren't going to try to get any points? Again, you tell me. I'd love to know. We see it in almost every game; nonsensical things keep happening.

11) No harm done; BYU has ball on its 7-yard line with 0:19 left in half, Cougars leading 17-6 and UCLA playing 4th QB. All in all, BYU is in good shape. Until they hand the ball off instead of taking a knee, the back fumbles, Bruins recover on the 7 or 8, and then score a TD to cut lead to 17-13 at half.

10) What in the name of Joe Pisarcik was on these people's minds? BYU didn't score another point rest of game, but won anyway, only because a chipshot UCLA FG on the last play of game was blocked, preserving a 17-16 BYU win. If you're guessing I am bitter because I had BYU -6, then you're 100% right. Fact of matter is, Cougars are not a well-coached team.

9) If I did one of those confidence pools, where you rank the SU winner in each bowl from 1-32, woiuld have been sweaty end to BYU-UCLA game; Cougars would have been #32, for team I had most confidence winning its bowl.

8) There aren't many shutouts in bowls, and last team you'd expect to see get blanked would be a WAC squad, but the Nevada Wolf Pack got shut out in Albuquerque by Lobos, 23-0, ending Nevada's string of close bowl games.

7) ESPN viewers listed Boise State as the most popular pick in the Confidence Pools; could be that East Carolina is getting a raw deal on this one? Last year was last year, Hawai'i Bowl is traditionally high scoring, as long as winds are calm. Pirates have a lousy defense, but they also score lot of points.....

6) Are there really people out there who think having a bowl in Boise or Mobile is better than a playoff system? Could do both, ayway, but 8 or 16-team college football playoff would be a tremendous money maker. It'll probably never happen.

5) Was very impressed by Tennessee in their win at Xavier, it is the kind of win that will be very valuable in March.

4) Why did Mr and Mrs Lopez have very large twin sons and then give them girls' names (Brook-Robin)? Stanford has look of an NCAA team with Brook Lopez in there, but they lost lot of ground while he was ineligible.

3) ESPN really did excellent job of setting up most of games that appearend in ESN/ESPN2 Saturday. Every game was fun to watch and had an inbteresting story line.

2) Ole Miss ran its record to 12-0 with win over Clemson in finals of tourney in Puerto Rico. Rebels better come up with some cash for ol' Andy Kennedy; he is pretty close to being a very hot commodity in the coaching ranks, and I know he just signed a contract extension, but believe me, when the big boys come calling, he'll want the extension sweetened.

1) Memphis was awesome in second half vs Georgetown, as they ran way from the Hoyas. Roy Hibbert looked sluggish. and that game was played at an NBA-like pace. Uh-oh. .

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 315-316: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.636; Cincinnati 126.323
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 4 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-2 1/2); Under

Game 317-318: Green Bay at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.417; Chicago 127.007
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 13 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-8 1/2); Over

Game 319-320: Houston at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.171; Indianapolis 145.701
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 16 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 46
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-7); Under

Game 321-322: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.423; Detroit 129.493
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+4 1/2); Over

Game 323-324: Miami at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 122.129; New England 150.718
Dunkel Line: New England by 28 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 22; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-22); Over

Game 325-326: NY Giants at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.184; Buffalo 129.056
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 38
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over

Game 327-328: Oakland at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.348; Jacksonville 144.198
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 21; 42
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 13; 39
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-13); Over

Game 329-330: Philadelphia at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 129.468; New Orleans 135.177
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Over

Game 331-332: Washington at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.446; Minnesota 138.901
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Under

Game 333-334: Atlanta at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.358; Arizona 130.064
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 14 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-10); Over

Game 335-336: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 123.095; Seattle 134.837
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Over

Game 337-338: NY Jets at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 125.290; Tennessee 130.879
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 9; 37
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+9); Over

Game 339-340: Tampa Bay at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 133.494; San Francisco 121.220
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 12; 39
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 6; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-6); Over


MONDAY, DECEMBER 24

Game 343-344: Denver at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 128.041; San Diego 138.363
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 10; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 8 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-8 1/2); Over

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

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Sunday, December 23
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CLEVELAND (9 - 5) at CINCINNATI (5 - 9) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (12 - 2) at CHICAGO (5 - 8) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (7 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 2) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 10) at DETROIT (6 - 8) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 13) at NEW ENGLAND (14 - 0) - 12/23/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 116-85 ATS (+22.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (9 - 5) at BUFFALO (7 - 7) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (4 - 10) at JACKSONVILLE (10 - 4) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (6 - 8) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 7) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 117-84 ATS (+24.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 37-59 ATS (-27.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-73 ATS (-30.3 Units) in home games in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-73 ATS (-30.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-76 ATS (-33.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-76 ATS (-33.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (7 - 7) at MINNESOTA (7 - 6) - 12/23/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (3 - 11) at ARIZONA (6 - 8) - 12/23/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 10) at SEATTLE (9 - 5) - 12/23/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (3 - 11) at TENNESSEE (8 - 6) - 12/23/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (9 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 10) - 12/23/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 24
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DENVER (6 - 8) at SAN DIEGO (9 - 5) - 12/24/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 16

Sunday, December 23rd

Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Cleveland: 7-0 ATS as a favorite
Cincinnati: 0-7 ATS off an Under

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS after allowing 14 or less points
Chicago: 1-5 ATS in home games

Houston at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST
Houston: 1-9 ATS away off a home game
Indianapolis: 15-6 ATS off 4+ wins

Kansas City at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Kansas City: 17-6 Over off 3+ ATS losses
Detroit: 11-1 ATS at home off 5+ losses

(TC) Miami at New England, 4:05 EST
Miami: 1-9 ATS vs. division opponents
New England: 15-6 ATS playing on artificial turf

NY Giants at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
NY Giants: 6-1 Under off a home loss by 10+ points
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Oakland at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Oakland: 2-11 ATS in December
Jacksonville: 6-0 ATS off BB Overs

Philadelphia at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
New Orleans: 8-19 ATS at home after winning 3 of their last 4 games

(TC) Washington at Minnesota, 8:15 EST NBC
Washington: 0-6 ATS off a road game
Minnesota: 5-1 Under vs. Washington

Atlanta at Arizona, 4:05 EST
Atlanta: 13-4 ATS away after allowing 175- rushing yards
Arizona: 6-0 Over after losing 3 of their last 4 games

Baltimore at Seattle, 4:15 EST
Baltimore: 1-8 ATS off an Over
Seattle: 17-7 ATS in home games

NY Jets at Tennessee, 4:15 EST
NY Jets: 3-12 ATS off a SU road loss / ATS win
Tennessee: 5-1 Under off a straight up win

(TC) Tampa Bay at San Francisco, 4:05 EST
Tampa Bay: 8-2 ATS vs. conference opponents
San Francisco: 2-9 ATS vs. conference opponents

** (TC) Denotes Time Change


Monday, December 24th

Denver at San Diego, 8:30 EST ESPN
Denver: 2-9 ATS vs. division opponents
San Diego: 17-6 ATS off a win by 21+ points

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Week 16 NFL schedule

Sunday, December 23

Browns (9-5) @ Bengals (5-9) — Cincy allowed 48.1 yds/drive to 49ers last week, when Niners’ previous best in any game had been 26.7, so Bengals don’t always play hard- would guess they will in rivalry game, but Browns won first meeting 51-45 in Week 2 (+6.5), outrushing Cincy 226-137, averaging 9.9 yds/pass (TY was 554-531, Browns). Cleveland is finding ways to win; they’re 7-2 in last nine games, and just 3-4 on road, with wins by 7 points (Rams), 3 (Ravens), 6 (Jets) points. Bengals are 4-3 at home, with wins last two ; they’re 2-9 if they allow 20+ points—Browns had scored 21+ in eight straight games before 8-0 win last week in blizzard. Bengals scored one offensive TD in each of last three games.

Packers (12-2) @ Bears (5-9) — This is NFL’s oldest rivalry, and Bears won first meeting 27-20 (Pack led 17-7 at half-- Bears were +4 in turnovers, had 13-yard edge in field position), but Pack now in position to get home field thru NFC playoffs, if Dallas slips up, so win here is big. Green Bay is 8-1 since first Bear game; its last three road wins all by 11+ points. Chicago was +3 in turnovers Monday night, still lost 20-13 at Minnesota; they were 1-14 on 3rd down, were outgained 372-209, and averaged just 4.5 ypp in dome. Bears lost four of last five home games; they’re 3-4 vs the spread as underdog. Pack is 6-1-1 as favorite. Over is 4-0-1 in Green Bay’s last five games.

Texans (7-7) @ Colts (12-2) — Colts locked into #2 seed for AFC playoffs, don’t have history of driving hard in such situations in past. Houston needs an upset in last two weeks for first .500 season; they lost first meeting vs Indy 30-24 in Week 3 (+5), as Manning was 20-29/267 passing, Colts were +2 in turnovers. Texans had few extra days to prepare after Thursday win last week; they’re 1-5 in last six road games, with losses by 10-20-25-10-8 points (lone ’07 road wins at Carolina, Oakland), 2-4 as road dog. Colts won last five games, but only two of those wins (vs Falcons, Ravens) were by more than seven points- they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six tries as favorite. Over is 4-2-1 in Houston road games.

Chiefs (4-10) @ Lions (6-8) — KC lost last seven games (1-6 vs spread), getting outscored 119-35 in second half (47-3 in second half of last three games); they’re actually 4-2 vs spread on road, with losses by 17-10-3-34 pts. Detroit lost last six games (1-5 vs spread) after 2-6 start; they’ve run ball less than ten times in two of last three games, would guess they try to establish Jones early here, as Chiefs allowed 153-191-215-148 rushing yards in last four games. Lions are 2-0-1 vs spread as favorite this year; this is first time since Week 9 (their last win) that they’re favored. Chiefs have been -2 or worse in turnovers in four of last six games (-12 total in last six). Lions are 6-0 vs spread when they win turnover battle.

Dolphins (1-13) @ Patriots (14-0) — Heat is off Miami after they got first win last week; they’re 0-7 on road, 2-3-2 vs spread as road dog this season, with losses by 3-3-3-10-10-3-21 points. Fish lost first game vs Patriots 49-28 in Week 7 (was 42-7 at half), as NE averaged 12.4 yards/pass attempt, scored six TDs on 10 drives, although they did put Brady back in game after backup Cassel threw INT for Miami TD. Last home game for Patriot team pursuing perfection; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four games, winning by 3-3-21-10 pts; they’re 5-2 vs spread as home favorite. Miami has been outrushed 550-174 in last three games; they won field position battle last week for first time in last nine games.

Giants (9-5) @ Bills (7-7) — Emotional day, as injured Everett (neck) expected to be on field, which will pump home crowd up; last home game for gritty Buffalo squad that is 4-3 in Orchard Park, losing to Denver (15-14), Dallas (25-24), Patriots- they’re 7-5 vs spread as underdog, 5-1 at home. Visitor won last six Giant games, as Big Blue won last six road games, last four by six or less points. In their last two games, Giants have two offensive TDs, 11 3/outs on 26 drives; they’re 16-46 (34.8%) on third down in last three games. Hard to endorse Giant receivers in potential bad weather game- Manning’s 34 IPs last week were most by any NFL QB in last forty years—about ten of them were drops.

Raiders (4-10) @ Jaguars (10-4) — If you stripped team names off performance charts, Jax would be #3 in NFL, behind Patriots, Colts; they’ve won five of last six games (6-0 vs spread), winning last three home games by 7-22-31 points; this is probably their last home game of season for road-grating offense that ran ball for 168-178-225 yards in last three games (two of three foes were Colts, Steelers). Raiders hung with Indy at home last week, losing in last 5:00; they’re 4-3 as road dog this season, with away losses by 3-14-4-7-31 pts (won at Miami, KC). Jax is 4-2 as home favorite this season; they’ve clinched playoff spot, aren’t going to get week off, so no great motivation here. Last six Jaguar games went over total.

Eagles (6-8) @ Saints (7-7) — Have feeling Philly is satisfied after upsetting hated rival Dallas last week, while Saints in the middle of playoff race. Eagles had lost three in row by total of 10 pts before Cowboy game; they’re 4-1 in last five road games (5-0 vs spread), losing only 31-28 at unbeaten Patriots. NO won three of last four games, scoring 29.8 pg; they’ve averaged 8.0/9.9 ypp in last two games, and averaged 46+ yards/drive in each of last three weeks. Philly allowed average of 20.7/26.5/20.0 ypd in last three games, giving up just one TD on last 24 drives in last two games, so good matchup between Johnson’s blitzes and veteran QB Brees. Six of last eight Saint games went over the total.

Redskins (7-7) @ Vikings (8-6) — Sunday night game is huge, as Redskin win would put Saints in driver’s seat for #6 seed, with Skins poised to pounce should Saints falter. Vike QB Jackson hurt calf late in Monday’s game; status unknown; there is very large dropoff to #2 QB Bollinger. Washington is 3-4 on road, with two of three wins in Swamp; they’re 3-2-1 as road dog, with away losses by 3-45-5-6 points, but they were all with Campbell at QB. Collins was awful in gusty winds last week (8-25/156); interesting to see how he fares in dome, vs Viking defense that held last five foes to average of 52.8 rushing yards/game. Sign Vikings might be really good; in last five weeks, they’ve won two games with a -3 turnover ratio.

Falcons (3-11) @ Cardinals (6-8) — Arizona is 1-3 vs spread as favorite this year; in weak NFC, no excuse for this team to miss playoffs- they just weren’t a clutch team, converting just 17 of last 58 (29.3%) on 3rd down in last five games- they’ve committed 8+ penalties for 64+ yards in nine of last 10 games, which helped keep them from postseason. Last week at Superdome, Saints averaged 9.9 yards/pass, had just nine third down plays out of 60 they ran, so defense was awful, but Atlanta is in tank with their coaches scrambling to find employment for next year. Last week, they got outgained 285-133, completed 4-15 passes with just five first downs; they’re 0-5 vs spread in losing last five games, by 24-18-12-20-34 points.

Ravens (4-10) @ Seahawks (9-5) — Baltimore had ball on Miami’s half-yard line with 0:12 left last week, down 16-13, 4th down- they had 163 rushing yards in game, and Miami alum McGahee running ball, but they kick tying FG, lose in OT to winless Dolphins. You think these players believe in those coaches? Neuheisel has interviewed for UCLA job, so distractions aplenty, with banged-up Boller at QB, bad news vs Seahawk club that annoyed Holmgren in loss at Carolina last week, running ball just 14 times for 44 yards in 13-10 loss that was 0-0 at half. Last home game for Seattle team that will have home playoff game in two weeks; think they go hard here, maybe rest some guys at Atlanta next week.

Jets (3-11) @ Titans (8-6) — Big question here is did Jets leave anything in tank after their grudge match last week in Foxboro; Clemens got KO’d early, Pennington came in and relieved; had Jets not come up empty on three of four trips to red zone (kicked one FG in four trips) they could have handed Pats first loss. Not sure which QB goes here— Pennington probably gives Jets better chance to cover. Tennessee is 2-4 in last six games, with wins by 8,9 points; they’re 4-4 vs spread as favorite this season, Jets are 3-2 as road dog, with losses away from Swamp by 7-3-7-31-10 points. Titans want to run ball; in last three games, they gained 153-131-148 yards on the ground. Four of Jets’ last five games stayed under total.

Buccaneers (9-5) @ 49ers (4-10) — Garcia returns to old home, finds 6-year veteran Hill making just second NFL start for 49ers, who upset Bengals last week’s in Hill’s starting debut. Maryland alum was 21-28/181 last week, as Niners converted 9-15 third downs, didn’t turn ball over. Bucs are 3-4 on road, with wins at Carolina (20-7), Atlanta (31-7), Saints (27-23)- they’re 5-2-1 vs spread as favorite this season, 1-1 on road. Last road game for Tampa club that is locked into home playoff game in two weeks. 49ers are 2-5 at home, 2-4 as home dog, with losses at Candlestick by 20-2-21-4-20 points. They’re 4-0 this season when scoring 17+ points; Bucs allowed 23+ in four of last five road games.

Monday, December 24

Broncos (6-8) @ Chargers (9-5) — San Diego is rolling, (4-0 SU, vs spread last four games) with wins at home by 37-18-2-25-14 points in last five home games. Cutler is from Santa Claus, IN, hard to buck him on Christmas Eve, but Denver lost three of last four games, giving up 31+ points in all three losses; they’re 1-5 in last six road games, with losses by 18-37-3-14-18 pts. In last three games, Norv’s offense ran ball for 191-148-274 yards; they crushed Broncos 41-3 in first meeting, running ball for 214 yards. Shanahan cut the punter this week, so he must be in great mood. Six of last seven Denver games went over the total. Denver is 2-4 vs spread as underdog this season- this is their fourth road game in last five weeks.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


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Tips and Trends
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Sunday, December 23

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (FOX | 1 PM ET)

This is a big game for the Giants as they can clinch a playoff berth with a win at Buffalo while the Bills were eliminated from playoff contention with a loss at Cleveland last week. EDGE: GIANTS
Team insiders are reporting that Pro Bowl TE Jeremy Shockey is lost for the season with a broken left leg. Both LB Mathias Kiwanuka and RB Derrick Ward are on injured reserve with identical injuries. EDGE: BILLS
Team insiders are reporting that Buffalo safety George Wilson will miss the rest of the regular season with two broken ribs. EDGE: GIANTS
Despite coming close to playoff run this season, Buffalo still comes into this contest as one of the worst “on paper” teams in the league as the defense and offense are each ranked 30th in the NFL. The Bills have 7 wins over their last 11 games, and their only losses were too the undefeated Patriots, Jaguars, Cowboys (losing 25-24) and Cleveland (8-0 last week) - all likely playoff teams. SLIGHT EDGE: GIANTS
The Giants are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS on the road this season.
Buffalo is 13-8 ATS as an underdog under head coach Dick Jauron.
Buffalo is on a 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS run over its last 11 games.


Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Unfortunately for Chicago, the Cowboys lost last weekend, which means the Packers have something to play for here since they are now tied for the top spot in the NFC. EDGE: PACKERS
Since Ryan Grant took the starting RB job for the Packers, he leads the league in rushing yards. He is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, the 2nd-best average among backs currently starting for their teams. Since Week 8, he has 772 rushing yards, second in the NFL behind LaDainian Tomlinson's 784. Grant should have another big day against the league's 28th ranked defense and one that gives up a whopping 123 rushing yards per game. EDGE: PACKERS
Green Bay comes into this contest a winner of 8 of its past 9 road contests, losing only at Dallas when several key injured defensive starters were out, including Charles Woodson and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. Both Woodson and Gbaja-Biamila are healthy for this contest. EDGE: PACKERS
Some Green Bay insiders are concerned about the mounting injuries on the Green Bay defensive side of the ball. Nose tackle Ryan Pickett is still recovering from a groin injury and it's unclear whether he'll be ready in time for the rematch with the Bears. Picket’s injury is significant because he is one of the two in this defense designated to stop the run, and with Chicago’s anemic QB play, stopping the run will be important this Sunday. SLIGHT EDGE: BEARS
Despite a horrible offensive performance this past Monday, Chicago team insiders are reporting that No. 3 quarterback Kyle Orton will return under center this Sunday against the Packers. EDGE: PACKERS
Chicago’s offensive line problems continue to get worse, as the Bears have allowed 41 sacks this season, the third-highest amount in the league. EDGE: PACKERS
The Packers are 16-2 SU & 15-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall, outscoring their opponents by a 28-17 average.
The Packers are 6-1 SU & ATS on the road this season.


Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (CBS | 1 PM ET)

This is an important game for Cleveland, as the Browns have yet to clinch a playoff spot. As it stand now, they remain a game behind for the sixth AFC playoff seed with two games left to play. However, they can still win the AFC North if they finish a game ahead of Pittsburgh since both teams are tied atop the division. EDGE: BENGALS
Cleveland has been on a roll as of late, but the Browns still do not resemble a successful NFL team defensively. Despite the fact that they come into this contest with the NFL’s 10th-ranked offense, their defense nevertheless has the distinction of being worst in the NFL, allowing 378 yards per game, including last week’s blizzard game against Buffalo in which they shut down the Bills. Some team insiders really believe that they will get a good gauge of this defense against a good offensive team like Cincinnati. Indeed, their rushing defense allows 129 yards per game (28th), and the pass defense allows 249 yards per game (30th in the league). EDGE: BENGALS
Some Cincinnati insiders believe that this is a Bengals team already thinking about their off-season plans, as they looked absolutely horrible in last Saturday's 20-13 loss at San Francisco. The 49ers were using a 3rd-string quarterback and came into that contest with one of the worst defenses in the league. EDGE: BROWNS
Some league insiders expect a lot of points in this contest, as the Browns have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and they now have to play a Bengals passing offense that averages 255 yards passing per game. EDGE: OVER
The Browns are on an impressive 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS run.


Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (CBS | 1 PM ET)

League insiders are becoming concerned with the recent QB play of Jon Kitna, who threw for 5 interceptions last weekend against San Diego. Kitna’s problem is that he is constantly under pressure behind a terrible offensive line that has allowed 51 sacks this season. The poor offensive line also makes Detroit very one-dimensional, as the team's running game has totaled 68 yards or less in the last 7 games. EDGE: CHIEFS
Kansas City team insiders are very concerned about the Chiefs defense that has been shredded over their last 7 games, giving up 33, 27, 13, 17, 24 41 and 26 points. Considering their offense is ranked 30th in the league, they need their defense to play well in order to have any shot at winning this contest. EDGE: LIONS
The Lions are on a miserable 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS run over their last 6 games.
The Chiefs come into this contest on a poor 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS run over their last 7 games.


Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Some team insiders believe motivation could be a problem this week for the Colts, as they have already clinched the AFC's No. 2 playoff seed and a first-round bye, so this is basically a meaningless game. This is also a revenge game for the Texans, as Indianapolis won 30-24 at Houston in Week 3. EDGE: TEXANS
The play of the Indianapolis defense continues to impress league insiders as they held Oakland to just 253 total yards despite the fact that 5 of the 8 guys in the Colts defensive line rotation were rookies. Overall, the Colts defense ranks No. 2 in total defense, allowing just 264 yards per game. EDGE: COLTS
Indianapolis team insiders are reporting that Colts WR Marvin Harrison (knee) is likely out until the playoffs while head coach Tony Dungy has also hinted at resting other key players for the playoffs. EDGE: TEXANS
Team insiders remain impressed with the play of backup QB Sage Rosenfels, who is filling in for Matt Schaub (out with a dislocated left shoulder). In the 3 games he has started this season, Rosenfels is 3-0 SU & ATS and has run an offense that has put up 20, 28 and 31 points during that stretch. EDGE: TEXANS
Houston has not been a very good road team this season, the Texans come into this contest at just 2-5 SU & ATS on the road, allowing 27 points per game. EDGE: COLTS


Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (CBS | 1 PM ET)

This is a very tough situational setting for the Raiders, who have to travel cross country to play an early start time 10 a.m. Pacific time. Seattle was in a similar travel spot last week and lost outright at Carolina. EDGE: JAGUARS
One league insider believes that the Oakland defense could be in for a very long day considering that the Raiders come into this contest with the second-worst rushing defense in the league, allowing 143 rushing yards per game. Jacksonville owns the 2nd-ranked rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 149 yards per game. EDGE: JAGUARS
Jacksonville is 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS in its last 16 home games.
The OVER is 8-0 in Jacksonville's last 8 games.


Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (FOX | 4:05 PM ET)

New Orleans comes into this contest with the No. 3 passing offense in the league and could get star RB Reggie Bush back this week. EDGE: SAINTS
Despite coming into this contest with only 6 wins this season, “on paper” Philadelphia is one of the most well-rounded teams in the league, as the Eagles offense ranks No. 8 in the NFL while the defense is No. 9. SLIGHT EDGE: EAGLES


Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (FOX | 4:05 PM ET)

Atlanta is one of the most undisciplined teams in the league, committing 12 turnovers over their last 5 games, which is the main reason why their offense averages only 13 points per game this season. EDGE: CARDINALS
Atlanta comes into this contest on a miserable 0-5 SU & AT, losing by an average of 21 points over that span. EDGE: CARDINALS
Team insiders are concerned with the recent play of the Arizona defense, which has been shredded as of late, giving up 21, 27, 37, 21, 42 and 31 points over their last 6 games. Even the 49ers, who rank last in the NFL in several offensive categories, gained 374 yards in a 37-31 win 3 weeks ago. EDGE: FALCONS
Atlanta team insiders believe that the Falcons could be in a lot of trouble the rest of this season as they have to try to finish out their season with new head coach Emmitt Thomas, who some of our insiders believe is not ready for this kind of responsibility. EDGE: CARDINALS


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (FOX | 4:05 PM ET)

Tampa Bay comes into this contest after securing the NFC South title Sunday by beating the Falcons, so motivation could be a concern this week. However, former San Francisco QB Jeff Garcia will be returning to the City by the Bay and doesn't expect to be resting despite clinching the division. Garcia started 74 games for the 49ers between 1999-2003. "We want to win - to do that you got to play your best players," Tampa head coach Jon Gruden said. SLIGHT EDGE: BUCS
San Francisco team insiders are reporting that 3rd-string QB Shaun Hill will again be under center for the 49ers. Hill earned his 1st win last week against Cincinnati, throwing for 197 yards and one touchdown while running for another. "I'm very pleased to see the way he's played," San Francisco head coach Mike Nolan said about Hill. "He will make us a better football team one way or the other, whatever his role." SLIGHT EDGE: BUCS
League insiders are not expecting a lot of points this weekend, as the 49ers come into this contest with one of the worst offenses in the league, and they must now try to score points against a Tampa defense that ranks #3 in the league, allowing opponents to score only 15 points per game. EDGE: BUCS
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU & ATS in its last 6 games.


Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)

Team insiders are not giving Miami a shot this week, as the Dolphins are off their first win of the season, a game in which they gave an all-out effort, so they could be in for an emotional and physical letdown against a team they have no real chance in defeating. BIG EDGE: PATRIOTS
The Patriots come into this contest with the NFL's top offense, as they are averaging 37.4 points per game. That could present all kinds of problems against a Miami run defense that is last in the NFL. allowing 156 yards rushing per game. EDGE: PATRIOTS
Despite winning only one game, Miami has shown a lot of heart this season, as 6 of the team's 13 losses have been by 3 points or less. SLIGHT EDGE: DOLPHINS
New England is beating opponents by a 35-12 average at home this season.
The Patriots are on an 18-1 SU & 14-5 ATS run going back to last season.


Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)

With only two games remaining in the season, the Seahawks can finish as either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC playoffs, so a motivated effort is expected this week. EDGE: SEAHAWKS
This is a tough travel spot for the Ravens, as they have to fly cross country after an demoralizing game they were expected to win against the previously winless Dolphins. It’s hard to imagine that things could get any worse for the Ravens, who have lost 8 straight. EDGE: SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks offense had been on a roll before last week's disappointing loss at Carolina, scoring 33, 30, 24, 30, 24, 28 and 42 points in the previous 7 games. EDGE: SEAHAWKS
Some Seattle insiders are concerned about the well-being of Seattle RB Shaun Alexander, who appears to still be hurting. In his last 3 games, Alexander has managed just 65, 38 and 17 yards rushing. EDGE: RAVENS
Despite the loss, one Baltimore insider was quick to defend the Ravens this week, as the injury bug has hit them hard. During last week's loss to Miami, the Ravens were playing without both of their first-string cornerbacks (Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister), and then they suffered a huge blow when they lost Pro Bowl LB Ray Lewis (dislocated finger) in the third quarter. On the offensive side of the ball, The Ravens lost quarterback Kyle Boller to a concussion early in the game and were forced to play backup Troy Smith, who will start this week. EDGE: SEAHAWKS
Seattle is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season and 16-3 SU & 12-6-1 ATS in its last 19 home games.


New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)

This is a must-win game for the Titans, who still have hopes of making the playoffs. They need to win this game and a victory at Indianapolis next week in the regular-season finale along with help from other teams to get into the postseason. EDGE: TITANS
There is a key matchup advantage for Tennessee's running game here going against New York's 30th-ranked run defense. The Jets are surrendering 141.1 yards per game and now must try to stop Titans RB LenDale White, who has rushed for 206 yards combined over the last 2 games. EDGE: TITANS
The last 6 teams to play the unbeaten Patriots have failed to cover in their next game, and the Jets could be next in line. EDGE: TITANS
Tennessee Pro Bowl DT Albert Haynesworth is hoping to play after being held out of last week's game with a nagging hamstring injury. "Albert just had a difficult time getting loose, I think because of the weather conditions," Titans head coach Jeff Fisher said. "He didn't have any setbacks. We've kind of been optimistic about the potential for him to practice." BIG EDGE: TITANS IF HE PLAYS
The Jets have surrendered 44 sacks this season and may be forced to start Chad Pennington at QB if Kellen Clemens can't go. Clemens suffered a rib injury last week at New England due to poor pass protection, and Pennington hasn't started a game since October 28th against Buffalo. EDGE: TITANS
Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 December games.
The OVER is 11-4 in Tennessee's last 15 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 14-6-1 in Tennessee's last 21 home games.


Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (NBC | 8:15 ET)

This is a monumental game for both teams, as both teams come into this contest with postseason aspirations. The Vikings are currently a full game ahead of the 7-7 Redskins and 7-7 Saints in the race for a wild-card spot. SLIGHT EDGE: VIKINGS
Washington team insiders have been impressed with the quarterback play of backup Todd Collins, who has been filling in for the injured Jason Campbell (knee). Collins has the benefit of knowing this offense very well, as he’s been with Washington’s offensive coordinator for 8-9 years. The result of that experience has netted him an impressive 2-0 SU mark over his last 2 games. EDGE: REDSKINS
Team insiders are reporting that Washington suffered yet another devastating injury last week when they lost the services of LB Rocky McIntosh, who tore two major knee ligaments and is out for the year. EDGE: VIKINGS
Minnesota comes into this contest with the NFL’s No. 1 overall rushing offense, averaging 172 rushing yards per game. The Vikings also have the distinction of having the top-ranked run-stopping unit. EDGE: VIKINGS
Minnesota has been on a roll lately with an impressive 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS run over its last 7 games.


Monday, December 24

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (ESPN | 8:30 PM ET)

San Diego likely needs to win the final 2 games of the regular season in order to secure the #3 seed in the AFC playoff race. That would mean a trip to Indianapolis rather than New England in the divisional round if the Chargers win their first playoff game. They have won 5 in a row, which has some insiders wondering whether or not the team is peaking too soon. "Sometimes you just have to let the course of a season play out," San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson said. "At some point it has to happen. That's just how it is. For us not to be doing it, it's happening now. It's just coming at a later time, you know what I mean? And for us, it's great, because if we can be hot going into the playoffs, Whoa, Nellie! Whoa, Nellie!" EDGE: CHARGERS
Tomlinson is averaging 129 yards during San Diego's 4-game winning streak, scoring 6 touchdowns over that stretch. He also has an outstanding shot at winning his second straight NFL rushing title after Pittsburgh's Willie Parker broke his leg on Thursday night. EDGE: CHARGERS
The Broncos were eliminated from playoff contention with a loss at Houston and wins by Cleveland and San Diego last week. However, they will be trying to avoid their first losing season since 1999 and need to win their last 2 games to finish 8-8. "Your career is based on how you perform and if you don't perform, it'll show on tape and guys will know what type of heart you have," Denver All-Pro CB Champ Bailey said. "We're aware of how (the Chargers) beat us and I know they're going to think that they could do it again. So, we've got to go out and play our game. We're capable of playing well. We've just got to do it." EDGE: BRONCOS
Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. AFC opponents.
Chargers are 16-5-3 ATS in their last 24 vs. AFC West opponents.
Broncos are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The OVER is 9-1 in Denver's 10 games vs. AFC opponents.
The OVER is 7-1 in Denver's last 8 games in December.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL
NFL poolies' cheat sheet


Monday, December 17

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Cheat Sheet
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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 16

Cleveland at Cincinnati (+3)

Why Browns Cover: Need to win to keep pace with Pittsburgh in the AFC North. Won last meeting 51-45 as 7-point underdogs. Cincinnati has only 20 sacks this season. Favorite is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

Why Bengals cover: Have won five of last six meetings. Carson Palmer has thrown for 1,401 yards and 14 TDs in his last five games against Cleveland. Browns have allowed the most offensive yards against them in the NFL and the second most passing touchdowns.

Total (43 ½): Teams totaled 96 points in last meeting.


Green Bay at Chicago (+9)

Why Packers cover: Still trying to clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Kyle Orton was shaky in his first game as the new Bears QB last week. Are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Chicago. Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Why Bears cover: Won four of the last five meetings including a 27-20 victory in Week 5 at Lambeau Field as 3-point underdogs. Have intercepted Brett Favre 11 times in their last five meetings.

Total (39): Over is 4-0 in Packers’ last four road games and 5-0 in their last five games overall.


Houston at Indianapolis (-7)

Why Texans cover: Are 3-0 ATS with Sage Rosenfels as the starting quarterback. Colts could end up resting starters for part of the game.

Why Colts cover: Won nine of last 10 meetings. Are holding opponents to 4.47 yards per offensive play, best in the league. Peyton Manning has thrown 12 touchdowns and only one interception in his last five games against Houston. Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Total (44 ½): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.


Kansas City at Detroit (-4 ½)

Why Chiefs cover: Won last four meetings. Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Jon Kitna has thrown 11 interceptions during Detroit’s current six-game losing streak. There is a chance Larry Johnson could play this week. Detroit has allowed the most first downs in the NFL.

Why Lions cover: Home team has won three of last four meetings. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. Are averaging 22 points per game to the Chiefs’ 14.

Total (43): Over is 5-1 in Chiefs’ last six vs. a team with a losing record, and 4-0 in Lions’ last four games overall.


N.Y. Giants at Buffalo (+3)

Why Giants cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Can clinch a playoff birth with win or tie. Bills have one of the worst offenses in the league.

Why Bills cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Won five of last seven meetings. Averaging 131.5 yards rushing in their last four games. New York is only averaging 16 points per game in their last five.

Total (32 ½): Under is 6-0 in Giants’ last six road games and 4-1 in Giants’ last five games overall.


Oakland at Jacksonville (-13)

Why Raiders cover: Have covered in three of last four games. Have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns this season.

Why Jaguars cover: Won last two meetings. Are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Can clinch a playoff birth with win or tie. Fred Taylor has rushed for 572 yards and three TDs in his last five games. Raiders lost offensive leader Justin Fargas for the season with a sprained MCL.

Total: (38 ½): Over is 7-0-1 in Jaguars’ last eight games and 4-1 in Raiders’ last five games.


Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3)

Why Eagles cover: Won seven of last nine meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Saints. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Have picked off Drew Brees four times in their last two meetings.

Why Saints cover: Still fighting to make the playoffs. Brees has been on fire with 1,082 yards passing and 10 touchdowns in his last four games. Reggie Bush could return from a knee injury. Aaron Stecker has totaled 248 yards and two TDs in two games while filling in for Bush.

Total (47): Over is 4-0 in Saints’ last four home games.


Atlanta at Arizona (-10 ½)

Why Falcons cover: Won four straight meetings. Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NFC. Arizona has allowed 35 touchdowns this season.

Why Cardinals cover: Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games and have been outscored 161-53 during that time. Atlanta could be without starting DE John Abraham who suffered knee injury on Sunday.

Total (43 ½): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.


Tampa Bay at San Francisco (+6)

Why Buccaneers cover: Are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Jeff Garcia gets to face the team that released him in 2004. Earnest Graham has scored a TD in six straight games.

Why 49ers cover: Shaun Hill has a 98.6 quarterback rating since taking over as the starter. Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and has won eight of the last 10. Niners have won last five meetings in San Francisco.

Total (37): Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.


Baltimore at Seattle (-10)

Why Ravens cover: Have won last three meetings. Willis McGahee ran for 116 yards and four TDs in his only career game against Seattle.

Why Seahawks cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 333 yards and five TDs in their last meeting. Ravens QB Kyle Boller is day-to-day with a concussion. Ray Lewis will play with a dislocated finger. Ravens are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games.

Total (38): Over is 5-0 in Ravens’ last five games.


N.Y. Jets at Tennessee (-9)

Why Jets cover: Won last three meetings. Have covered in four of last six games. Chad Pennington could return as the starting quarterback if Kellen Clemens can’t go. Vince Young has thrown 10 interceptions in his last seven games.

Why Titans cover: Have AFC’s fourth-best rush defense. Need to win to stay in the playoff race. League’s fourth-best rush offense gets to face the NFL’s 30th-ranked rush defense.

Total (37): Over is 4-1-1 in Titans’ last six games.


Miami at New England (-21 ½)

Why Dolphins cover: Coming off first win of the season. New England has failed to cover in three games this season with spreads bigger than 19 points. Pats have only covered twice in last six games after covering 11 straight times going back to last season. With nothing left to gain, Patriots could rest their regulars in the second half.

Why Patriots cover: Are still looking to become second team to go undefeated in a season. Tom Brady and Randy Moss are still looking to set NFL records. Home team is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in New England.

Total (45): Over is 8-2 in Patriots’ last 10 home games and 4-1 in Dolphins’ last five vs. AFC East.


Washington at Minnesota (-6 ½)

Why Redskins cover: After losing four straight, have won two consecutive games covering both times. Need to win to stay in the playoff race. Holding opponents to 15.5 points in their last four games.

Why Vikings cover: Won three of last four meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Saints loss or tie. Washington is dealing with multiple injuries in many key areas. Holding opponents to 67.6 rushing yards per game.

Total (41): Over is 5-1 in Vikings’ last six home games.


Denver at San Diego (-9)

Why Broncos cover: With both Javon Walker and Brandon Stokley hurting, Brandon Marshall has stepped up his play and has 21 catches, 222 yards receiving and two TDs in his last two games. Jay Cutler has five TDs and zero interceptions in his last two games.

Why Chargers cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. LaDainian Tomlinson has scored 10 touchdowns in his last five games against Denver. Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Have picked off opposing quarterbacks 27 times this season.

Total (47): Over is 5-1 in Broncos’ last six road games.

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[pm530]

National Football League – over/under plays

NFL
Total bias: Week 16 over/under plays


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NFL over/under picks
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Total bias: Week 16 over/under plays

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals – under 44

Arizona struggles with defending the pass but things are so discombobulated in Atlanta right now the Cards secondary will look like a group of seasoned pros.

The Falcons’ offense is so bad the Cards could score 40 and the game would probably still play under. Bobby Petrino’s quick exit messed with whatever direction the Dirty Birds had on offense.

Chris Redman proved he’s better suited selling insurance than he is quarterbacking in the NFL. He completed just 26 percent of his passes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.

Arizona will jump out to an earlier lead and then milk the clock in the second half. Look for coach Ken Whisenhunt to call Edgerrin James’ number early and often.


Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots – under 45

The Dolphins grabbed their first victory and netted themselves the Big Tuna all in one week. None of this will help the Fish find the painted grass Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium.

New England has shown it is susceptible against the run but Miami is particularly shorthanded in its backfield. Something tells me Samkon Gado isn’t in the same class of running backs as Willie Parker, Brian Westbrook and Willis McGahee.

The Pats played under for the second week in a row and I see the trend continuing. Tom Brady isn’t overly concerned about eclipsing Peyton Manning’s single-season record of 49 TD passes. New England wins big but the Fish won’t score enough to push the total over 45 points.


Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings – under 40 ½

Todd Collins’ familiarity with Al Saunders’ playbook has helped during Washington’s recent two-game win streak. The wily veteran is an effective game manager but his talents are limited. The Redskins’ offense is at its best when Clinton Portis has the ball in his hands.

The problem is Minnesota’s defensive tackle duo of Kevin and Pat Williams (both Pro Bowlers) makes it extremely difficult for opponents to gain any yards on the ground. The Redskins will struggle to score if they have to rely on Collins’ arm rather than Portis’ feet.

I expect a pitchers’ duel in this one: low scoring and over in a hurry.


Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record: 25-20

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[pm530]

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday



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NFL Gameday
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Sunday NFL Gameday

The eve of Christmas Eve brings several important matchups, including Kellen Winslow and the Browns looking for a victory over the Bengals. Here is your NFL Gameday . . .

Cleveland Browns (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (Total 43.5)
Paul Brown Stadium, 1:00pm ET (CBS)

The Browns will be hoping to help their playoff chances when they hit the road to take on Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon. Cleveland knocked the Bills out of the playoff race with a snowy 8-0 home win last weekend, thanks mostly to a pair of clutch Phil Dawson field goals. Derek Anderson went just 9-of-24 for 137 yards passing against Buffalo, while Jamal Lewis rushed for 163 yards on 33 carries. A safety rounded out the scoring.

The Bengals fell to a miserable 5-9 on the season with a 20-13 road loss to the 49ers last Saturday night. Carson Palmer completed 19-of-31 pass attempts for 251 yards in that contest, with one touchdown strike to Chris Henry in the second quarter. Kenny Watson led the way on the ground with 33 yards on eight carries, while Chad Johnson had six catches for 78 yards in the defeat. Shayne Graham booted a pair of field goals.


Green Bay Packers (-8.5) at Chicago Bears (Total 35.5)
Soldier Field, 1:00pm ET (FOX)

Green Bay can still take the top seed in the NFC with a strong finish to the season, and they'll be going up against a Bears team that has now lost three games in a row. The Packers had no trouble getting past the Rams last weekend, cruising to a 33-14 road victory. Brett Favre went 19-of-30 for 227 yards passing against St. Louis, with two touchdown strikes and two interceptions. Ryan Grant rushed for 55 yards and a score.

Chicago is now well out of the playoff picture in the NFC, so they're playing only for pride down the stretch. The Bears dropped a 20-13 decision on the road to the Vikings on Monday night, getting blanked in the second half. Kyle Orton was good on 22-of-38 pass attempts for 184 yards in the loss, with no touchdowns and one interception. Adrian Peterson rushed for just 26 yards on nine carries, but also caught eight passes.


Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-22) (Total 45)
Gillette Stadium, 4:15pm ET (CBS)

The Dolphins vanquished the donut from their win column by knocking off the Ravens 22-16 on the weekend. Miami was down 13-3 at halftime in that contest, but they somehow came back and claimed the victory in overtime. Cleo Lemon went 23-of-39 for 315 yards passing on that day, with one touchdown strike to Greg Camarillo in the extra frame. Samkon Gado rushed for 43 yards on 18 carries and found the end zone as well.

New England will be looking to pound the Dolphins for the second time this season on Sunday, especially after they had to settle for a modest win over the Jets last weekend. Tom Brady went just 14-of-27 for 140 yards passing in that 20-10 home win, with no touchdowns and one interception. Randy Moss had five catches for 79 yards in that game, while Laurence Maroney rushed for 104 yards and a score on his 26 attempts.


Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) (Total 40.5)
Metrodome, 8:15pm ET (NBC)

The Redskins kept their playoff hopes alive with a 22-10 road win over the Giants in Week 15. That victory put Washington at 7-7 on the season, and within shouting distance of a Wild Card berth. Todd Collins went 8-of-25 for 166 yards passing against New York, with no touchdowns and no interceptions. Clinton Portis rushed for 126 yards and a score on 25 carries, while Ladell Betts ran for 29 yards and a score in the contest.

Minnesota sits one game up on the Redskins in the Wild Card race at 8-6, so this is a huge game for Purple Jesus and company. The Vikings got their fifth win in a row on Monday night by handling the struggling Bears, with Adrian Peterson running for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. Tarvaris Jackson completed 18-of-29 pass attempts for 249 yards in that Monday win, with no touchdowns but three interceptions.

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[pm530]

College Basketball – Long Sheet

NCAAB
Long Sheet


Sunday, December 23

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VIRGINIA TECH (6 - 4) at WAKE FOREST (7 - 3) - 12/23/2007, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 24-39 ATS (-18.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 24-39 ATS (-18.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-1 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 3-0 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (4 - 6) at NC STATE (6 - 3) - 12/23/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WEBER ST (4 - 6) at NEW MEXICO (10 - 2) - 12/23/2007, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW MEXICO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all home games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
NEW MEXICO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
WEBER ST is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WEBER ST is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WEBER ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON ST (10 - 0) at IDAHO ST (2 - 7) - 12/23/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO ST is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) in all games since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
IDAHO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON ST is 1-0 straight up against IDAHO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Matchup Notes

NBA
Betting Matchup Notes


Sunday, December 23

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Today's key NBA betting matchup notes
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Sunday's key NBA matchup notes

L.A. Lakers at New York (+5, 205)

This is the first 2007-08 meeting between these teams after New York swept two games from Los Angeles last season for the first time since 2000-01.


Houston at Detroit (off)

The Pistons lost 80-77 at Houston on Dec. 12, the teams' most recent meeting. Detroit shot a season-low 36.1 percent from the floor en route to its lowest point total of the season.


Golden State at Cleveland (pick, 209)

Cleveland defeated the Warriors 108-104 on the road Nov. 6, and has averaged 112.7 points while winning its last three meetings with Golden State.


Orlando at Boston (-9 ½, 192 ½)

The Magic beat Boston 104-102 in Orlando on Nov. 18 in the teams' first meeting this season, handing the Celtics their first loss after an 8-0 start.


Denver at Sacramento (off)

Denver won its last visit to Sacramento - 113-101 on March 11 - after losing 20 straight trips there dating to Jan. 7, 1997. The Nuggets won at home in the only meeting this season, 101-97 on Dec. 8.

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[pm530]

College Basketball – Matchup Notes

NCAAB


Sunday, December 23

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Today's key NCAAB Top 25 matchup notes
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Sunday's key college basketball matchup notes

Since the beginning of last season, the Predators (15-16-2) have won all 10 meetings with the Blue Jackets (15-13-6), outscoring them 36-16 and holding them to one goal or less six times.


Atlanta at St. Louis (-150, 5 ½)

The Thrashers go for their fourth straight victory and first in St. Louis on Sunday when they visit the Blues for the first time since 2002.


Edmonton at Chicago (-138, 5 ½)

The Blackhawks lost 3-2 in a shootout at Edmonton on Nov. 24 but are looking for their third straight home win over Edmonton, and are 3-0-2 versus the Oilers there since their last regulation loss in the series in January 2004.


Ottawa at N.Y. Rangers (+100, 5 ½)

The Senators beat the Rangers 3-1 in New York on Oct. 13 and have won four straight at MSG since losing 5-1 to the Rangers on Feb 8, 2006. New York (17-14-4) did win the teams' most recent meeting - 5-2 at Ottawa on Dec. 1.


Vancouver at Colorado (-147, 5)

The surging Avalanche look for their fifth straight home victory, but first against the Vancouver Canucks this season. The Canucks, who lead the division by two points over Colorado are 11-6-2 on the road and look for a third straight victory at Colorado after losing three in a row there.


New Jersey at Calgary (-132, 5)

The Flames have won three of their last four meetings with the Devils (19-13-3), but have not faced them since a 4-1 victory at New Jersey on Dec. 7, 2005. Calgary has not hosted the Devils since a 5-4 win on March 5, 2003.


Montreal at Dallas (-152, 5 ½)

The Stars have not played Montreal since losing 4-2 on Jan. 16, 2006. The teams also haven't met in Dallas since playing to a 1-all tie on Dec. 31, 2003.

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[pm530]

National Hockey League - Matchup Notes

NHL


Sunday, December 23

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Today's key NHL betting matchup notes
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Sunday's key NHL matchup notes

Boston at Pittsburgh (-167, 5 ½)

Boston has scored two or fewer goals in four of its last five games. The only time they scored more was Thursday at home against the Penguins (17-16-2), when they erased a four-goal second-period deficit but ultimately lost 5-4 in a shootout.


Nashville at Columbus (-144, 5)

Since the beginning of last season, the Predators (15-16-2) have won all 10 meetings with the Blue Jackets (15-13-6), outscoring them 36-16 and holding them to one goal or less six times.


Atlanta at St. Louis (-150, 5 ½)

The Thrashers go for their fourth straight victory and first in St. Louis on Sunday when they visit the Blues for the first time since 2002.


Edmonton at Chicago (-138, 5 ½)

The Blackhawks lost 3-2 in a shootout at Edmonton on Nov. 24 but are looking for their third straight home win over Edmonton, and are 3-0-2 versus the Oilers there since their last regulation loss in the series in January 2004.


Ottawa at N.Y. Rangers (+100, 5 ½)

The Senators beat the Rangers 3-1 in New York on Oct. 13 and have won four straight at MSG since losing 5-1 to the Rangers on Feb 8, 2006. New York (17-14-4) did win the teams' most recent meeting - 5-2 at Ottawa on Dec. 1.


Vancouver at Colorado (-147, 5)

The surging Avalanche look for their fifth straight home victory, but first against the Vancouver Canucks this season. The Canucks, who lead the division by two points over Colorado are 11-6-2 on the road and look for a third straight victory at Colorado after losing three in a row there.


New Jersey at Calgary (-132, 5)

The Flames have won three of their last four meetings with the Devils (19-13-3), but have not faced them since a 4-1 victory at New Jersey on Dec. 7, 2005. Calgary has not hosted the Devils since a 5-4 win on March 5, 2003.


Montreal at Dallas (-152, 5 ½)

The Stars have not played Montreal since losing 4-2 on Jan. 16, 2006. The teams also haven't met in Dallas since playing to a 1-all tie on Dec. 31, 2003.

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