Friday Trends and Indexes 12/21

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Friday, December 21

Good Luck on day #355 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

FOOTBALL:
For trends & indexes for all the NCAA Bowl Games, please look for separate thread: “2007-2008 BOWL SEASON TREND FACTORS AND INDEXES”

[pm530]

Weekend Sports Preview

Weekend Sports Preview

The sports schedule gets even more crowded this week as the college bowls get packed in with NFL, NBA, college hoops and NHL.

Week 16 in the NFL began early on Thursday and there’s another early game on Saturday when Dallas takes on Carolina (+10.5). The Sunday NFL early games include the Giants at Buffalo (+3), Green Bay at Chicago (+8.5), Cleveland at Cincinnati (+3), Kansas City at Detroit (-5), Houston at Indianapolis (-7), Oakland at Jacksonville (-13) and Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3). The late Sunday games include Atlanta at Arizona (-10), Tampa Bay at San Francisco (+6.5), Miami at New England (-22), Baltimore at Seattle, NY Jets at Tennessee (-8.5) and Washington at Minnesota (-6.5).

The bowl schedule begins in college football this weekend starting with the New Orleans Bowl featuring Florida Atlantic and Memphis (+2.5) on Friday. There are three bowl games on Saturday including Southern Miss versus Cincinnati (-11) in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, Nevada versus New Mexico (-3) in the New Mexico Bowl and BYU versus UCLA (+5.5) in the Las Vegas Bowl.

There is only one bowl game on the schedule for Sunday, as Boise State takes on East Carolina (+10.5) in the Hawaii Bowl.

The NBA weekend schedule tips off on Friday with 10 games, highlighted by Chicago at Boston, Utah at Orlando, Denver at Portland, the Lakers at Philadelphia and Toronto at Seattle. The rest of the Friday night schedule includes Atlanta at Washington, New York at Charlotte, Indiana at Minnesota, Memphis at Detroit and the Clippers at Dallas.

Nine games follow on Saturday starting with Washington at Indiana, Utah at Miami, Golden State at New Jersey, Minnesota at New Orleans and Philadelphia at Memphis. Also on tap for Saturday is Houston at Chicago, Charlotte at Milwaukee, the Clippers at San Antonio and Toronto at Phoenix.

The Sunday NBA schedule is a lot lighter with only five games, including the Lakers at New York, Golden State at Cleveland, Houston at Detroit, Orlando at Boston and Denver at Sacramento.

In college hoops this weekend eight of the Top 10 teams in the nation will be in action this weekend. Most of those games take place on Saturday, including No. 5 Georgetown at No. 2 Memphis, UCSB at No. 1 North Carolina, Miami (OH) at No. 3 Kansas, No. 8 UCLA at Michigan and No. 4 Texas at No. 9 Michigan. The only Top 10 team playing on Sunday is No. 7 Washington at Idaho State.

On the ice this weekend six games get things started on Friday night. The Friday night schedule includes Los Angeles at Columbus, Philadelphia at Buffalo, the Islanders at Pittsburgh, New Jersey at Edmonton, the Rangers at Colorado and Dallas at Calgary.

There are 11 games on tap for Saturday including St. Louis at Boston, Washington at the Islanders, Chicago at Ottawa, Buffalo at Philadelphia, Montreal at Atlanta and Toronto at Florida. The rest of the Saturday schedule sees Carolina at Tampa Bay, Los Angeles at Nashville, Detroit at Minnesota, Vancouver at Phoenix and Anaheim at San Jose.

The Sunday NHL schedule includes eight games with Boston at Pittsburgh, Nashville at Columbus, Atlanta at St. Louis, Edmonton at Chicago, Ottawa at the Rangers, New Jersey at Calgary, Montreal at Dallas and Vancouver at Colorado.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Friday

More trends to consider for Week 16 of the NFL season

-- Browns covered five of their last six division games.

-- Seahawks covered 15 of last 22 as a home favorite.

-- Eagles covered six of last eight as an underdog.

-- Dolphins are 3-13-1 vs spread in AFC East road games.

-- Chiefs are 5-13-1 vs spread when visiting an NFC team.

-- Giants covered one of last six against the AFC.

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[pm530]

Friday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but..........

As Thursday nights go, this was a pretty good one.........

13) Driving here in America's second-favorite city was awful Thursday, as every citizen was apparently out shopping for Christmas presents. Took me half-hour to go mile and a half, and when I got where I was going, couldn't find place to park, so had to leave anyway, and start all over. Aggravating.

12) Excellent that Rams retired Marshall Faulk's #28 last night. He single-handedly gave Rams a confidence that they hadn't had since moving to St Louis, and more than anyone, I think, was responsible for them winning the Super Bowl-- he was the key to opening up their passing game. It will be fun to be in Canton when he gets inducted in Hall of Fame.

11) How do the Cavaliers lose to the Knicks, then beat Lakers the next night? Sometimes, the NBA just makes no sense.

10) Carmelo Anthony was 2-17 at half last night, then in third quarter, he went 8-8. You tell me. Did they have really tasty sliced oranges in the locker room at halftime? Did they just run better plays for him? How does this happen?

9) Wild end to Navy-Utah game; in last 4:00, when Utes led 28-25, Navy stopped them on downs at the 1, then turned it back over on downs at the 9, from where Utah scored to make it 35-25 and apparently cover. But Navy struck for long TD to cut it to 35-32, then recovered onside kick to havre shot for a win, but Utes picked off pass to preserve their sixth straight win in a bowl game.

8) What are odds Bill Parcells finishes four years in Miami?

7) Tremendous finish in Duke-Pitt hoop game, when Fields hit a trey with 0:04.7 left in OT to give Panthers 65-64 win, in tilt where Duke led 34-22 at the half. Watching game without any sound, it looked like Panthers pushed Duke around inside in the second half. Great win for them.

6) Things aren't looking up for Oklahoma State, which lost to Oral Roberts 74-59, in game that wasn't that close. It won't be fun winter for Cowboys, if ORU is whipping them. Two head coaches in game are brothers (Sons of Eddie Sutton).

5) Whatever happened to St John's? They lost to Ohio U in first round game in Rainbow Classic, and it wasn't an upset. They're one of teams dragging Big East's power rating down.

4) Houston Rockets scored last seven points in regulation, forcing OT in Denver; but when it was over, Denver won the game anyway 112-111 in double OT, as sub guard Anthony Carter hit a leaner in the lane with 0:00.8. Carter was certainly an unlikely hero.

3) I really don't know how NFL players recover from game late in season, played on a Sunday, and get ready to play again on Thursday? It makes no sense, especally when you figure so few people are actually seeing the games on TV. NFL did dump the late-season Saturday afternoon games that were a staple on network TV for decades.

2) Wasn't at all impressed by Steelers tonight; they struggled to run ball early, and are more of a finesse team than anything else right now. They won't last long in playoffs. That said......

1) Steelers got very lucky the whole Eli Manning/San Diego thing happened, because thats only reason they got to draft Roethlisberger, who is way better QB than young Manning.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 307-308: Dallas at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 137.733; Carolina 127.714
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 10; 40
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+10 1/2); Under


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 315-316: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.636; Cincinnati 126.323
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 4 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-2 1/2); Under

Game 317-318: Green Bay at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.417; Chicago 127.007
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 13 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-8 1/2); Over

Game 319-320: Houston at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.171; Indianapolis 145.701
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 16 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 46
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-7); Under

Game 321-322: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.423; Detroit 129.493
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+4 1/2); Over

Game 323-324: Miami at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 122.129; New England 150.718
Dunkel Line: New England by 28 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 22; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-22); Over

Game 325-326: NY Giants at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.184; Buffalo 129.056
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 38
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over

Game 327-328: Oakland at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.348; Jacksonville 144.198
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 21; 42
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 13; 39
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-13); Over

Game 329-330: Philadelphia at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 129.468; New Orleans 135.177
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Over

Game 331-332: Washington at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.446; Minnesota 138.901
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Under

Game 333-334: Atlanta at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.358; Arizona 130.064
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 14 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-10); Over

Game 335-336: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 123.095; Seattle 134.837
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Over

Game 337-338: NY Jets at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 125.290; Tennessee 130.879
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 9; 37
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+9); Over

Game 339-340: Tampa Bay at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 133.494; San Francisco 121.220
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 12; 39
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 6; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-6); Over


MONDAY, DECEMBER 24

Game 343-344: Denver at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 128.041; San Diego 138.363
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 10; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 8 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-8 1/2); Over

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

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Saturday, December 22
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DALLAS (12 - 2) at CAROLINA (6 - 8) - 12/22/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 23
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CLEVELAND (9 - 5) at CINCINNATI (5 - 9) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (12 - 2) at CHICAGO (5 - 8) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (7 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 2) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 10) at DETROIT (6 - 8) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 13) at NEW ENGLAND (14 - 0) - 12/23/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 116-85 ATS (+22.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (9 - 5) at BUFFALO (7 - 7) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (4 - 10) at JACKSONVILLE (10 - 4) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (6 - 8) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 7) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 117-84 ATS (+24.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 37-59 ATS (-27.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-73 ATS (-30.3 Units) in home games in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-73 ATS (-30.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-76 ATS (-33.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-76 ATS (-33.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (7 - 7) at MINNESOTA (7 - 6) - 12/23/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (3 - 11) at ARIZONA (6 - 8) - 12/23/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 10) at SEATTLE (9 - 5) - 12/23/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (3 - 11) at TENNESSEE (8 - 6) - 12/23/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (9 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 10) - 12/23/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 24
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DENVER (6 - 8) at SAN DIEGO (9 - 5) - 12/24/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 16

Saturday, December 22nd

Dallas at Carolina, 8:15 EST NFL
Dallas: 8-1 ATS away off a division game
Carolina: 1-5 ATS vs. NFC East opponents


Sunday, December 23rd

Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Cleveland: 7-0 ATS as a favorite
Cincinnati: 0-7 ATS off an Under

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS after allowing 14 or less points
Chicago: 1-5 ATS in home games

Houston at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST
Houston: 1-9 ATS away off a home game
Indianapolis: 15-6 ATS off 4+ wins

Kansas City at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Kansas City: 17-6 Over off 3+ ATS losses
Detroit: 11-1 ATS at home off 5+ losses

(TC) Miami at New England, 4:05 EST
Miami: 1-9 ATS vs. division opponents
New England: 15-6 ATS playing on artificial turf

NY Giants at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
NY Giants: 6-1 Under off a home loss by 10+ points
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Oakland at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Oakland: 2-11 ATS in December
Jacksonville: 6-0 ATS off BB Overs

Philadelphia at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
New Orleans: 8-19 ATS at home after winning 3 of their last 4 games

(TC) Washington at Minnesota, 8:15 EST NBC
Washington: 0-6 ATS off a road game
Minnesota: 5-1 Under vs. Washington

Atlanta at Arizona, 4:05 EST
Atlanta: 13-4 ATS away after allowing 175- rushing yards
Arizona: 6-0 Over after losing 3 of their last 4 games

Baltimore at Seattle, 4:15 EST
Baltimore: 1-8 ATS off an Over
Seattle: 17-7 ATS in home games

NY Jets at Tennessee, 4:15 EST
NY Jets: 3-12 ATS off a SU road loss / ATS win
Tennessee: 5-1 Under off a straight up win

(TC) Tampa Bay at San Francisco, 4:05 EST
Tampa Bay: 8-2 ATS vs. conference opponents
San Francisco: 2-9 ATS vs. conference opponents

** (TC) Denotes Time Change


Monday, December 24th

Denver at San Diego, 8:30 EST ESPN
Denver: 2-9 ATS vs. division opponents
San Diego: 17-6 ATS off a win by 21+ points

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Week 16 NFL schedule

Saturday, December 22

Cowboys (12-2) @ Panthers (6-8) — In last three weeks, Cowboys gave up 124-152-134 rushing yards (5.4 yds/carry) which has to be a concern, but Romo’s thumb key concern here; he was 13-36/ 187 vs Eagles, had trouble gripping ball. Dallas now tied with the Packers for best mark in NFC, but to keep home field edge thru playoffs, they need to win out- they’re 6-0 on road (3-2 as road favorite), with wins by 17-24-1-21-1-11 points. Carolina won last two home games after losing first five; their home losses are by 13-13-24-7-25 pts. Seven of Panthers’ eight losses are by 13+ pts. Cowboys are 3-0 on grass fields this year, scoring 37-34-38, but in last five halves overall, they’ve been outscored 47-44.

Sunday, December 23

Browns (9-5) @ Bengals (5-9) — Cincy allowed 48.1 yds/drive to 49ers last week, when Niners’ previous best in any game had been 26.7, so Bengals don’t always play hard- would guess they will in rivalry game, but Browns won first meeting 51-45 in Week 2 (+6.5), outrushing Cincy 226-137, averaging 9.9 yds/pass (TY was 554-531, Browns). Cleveland is finding ways to win; they’re 7-2 in last nine games, and just 3-4 on road, with wins by 7 points (Rams), 3 (Ravens), 6 (Jets) points. Bengals are 4-3 at home, with wins last two ; they’re 2-9 if they allow 20+ points—Browns had scored 21+ in eight straight games before 8-0 win last week in blizzard. Bengals scored one offensive TD in each of last three games.

Packers (12-2) @ Bears (5-9) — This is NFL’s oldest rivalry, and Bears won first meeting 27-20 (Pack led 17-7 at half-- Bears were +4 in turnovers, had 13-yard edge in field position), but Pack now in position to get home field thru NFC playoffs, if Dallas slips up, so win here is big. Green Bay is 8-1 since first Bear game; its last three road wins all by 11+ points. Chicago was +3 in turnovers Monday night, still lost 20-13 at Minnesota; they were 1-14 on 3rd down, were outgained 372-209, and averaged just 4.5 ypp in dome. Bears lost four of last five home games; they’re 3-4 vs the spread as underdog. Pack is 6-1-1 as favorite. Over is 4-0-1 in Green Bay’s last five games.

Texans (7-7) @ Colts (12-2) — Colts locked into #2 seed for AFC playoffs, don’t have history of driving hard in such situations in past. Houston needs an upset in last two weeks for first .500 season; they lost first meeting vs Indy 30-24 in Week 3 (+5), as Manning was 20-29/267 passing, Colts were +2 in turnovers. Texans had few extra days to prepare after Thursday win last week; they’re 1-5 in last six road games, with losses by 10-20-25-10-8 points (lone ’07 road wins at Carolina, Oakland), 2-4 as road dog. Colts won last five games, but only two of those wins (vs Falcons, Ravens) were by more than seven points- they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six tries as favorite. Over is 4-2-1 in Houston road games.

Chiefs (4-10) @ Lions (6-8) — KC lost last seven games (1-6 vs spread), getting outscored 119-35 in second half (47-3 in second half of last three games); they’re actually 4-2 vs spread on road, with losses by 17-10-3-34 pts. Detroit lost last six games (1-5 vs spread) after 2-6 start; they’ve run ball less than ten times in two of last three games, would guess they try to establish Jones early here, as Chiefs allowed 153-191-215-148 rushing yards in last four games. Lions are 2-0-1 vs spread as favorite this year; this is first time since Week 9 (their last win) that they’re favored. Chiefs have been -2 or worse in turnovers in four of last six games (-12 total in last six). Lions are 6-0 vs spread when they win turnover battle.

Dolphins (1-13) @ Patriots (14-0) — Heat is off Miami after they got first win last week; they’re 0-7 on road, 2-3-2 vs spread as road dog this season, with losses by 3-3-3-10-10-3-21 points. Fish lost first game vs Patriots 49-28 in Week 7 (was 42-7 at half), as NE averaged 12.4 yards/pass attempt, scored six TDs on 10 drives, although they did put Brady back in game after backup Cassel threw INT for Miami TD. Last home game for Patriot team pursuing perfection; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four games, winning by 3-3-21-10 pts; they’re 5-2 vs spread as home favorite. Miami has been outrushed 550-174 in last three games; they won field position battle last week for first time in last nine games.

Giants (9-5) @ Bills (7-7) — Emotional day, as injured Everett (neck) expected to be on field, which will pump home crowd up; last home game for gritty Buffalo squad that is 4-3 in Orchard Park, losing to Denver (15-14), Dallas (25-24), Patriots- they’re 7-5 vs spread as underdog, 5-1 at home. Visitor won last six Giant games, as Big Blue won last six road games, last four by six or less points. In their last two games, Giants have two offensive TDs, 11 3/outs on 26 drives; they’re 16-46 (34.8%) on third down in last three games. Hard to endorse Giant receivers in potential bad weather game- Manning’s 34 IPs last week were most by any NFL QB in last forty years—about ten of them were drops.

Raiders (4-10) @ Jaguars (10-4) — If you stripped team names off performance charts, Jax would be #3 in NFL, behind Patriots, Colts; they’ve won five of last six games (6-0 vs spread), winning last three home games by 7-22-31 points; this is probably their last home game of season for road-grating offense that ran ball for 168-178-225 yards in last three games (two of three foes were Colts, Steelers). Raiders hung with Indy at home last week, losing in last 5:00; they’re 4-3 as road dog this season, with away losses by 3-14-4-7-31 pts (won at Miami, KC). Jax is 4-2 as home favorite this season; they’ve clinched playoff spot, aren’t going to get week off, so no great motivation here. Last six Jaguar games went over total.

Eagles (6-8) @ Saints (7-7) — Have feeling Philly is satisfied after upsetting hated rival Dallas last week, while Saints in the middle of playoff race. Eagles had lost three in row by total of 10 pts before Cowboy game; they’re 4-1 in last five road games (5-0 vs spread), losing only 31-28 at unbeaten Patriots. NO won three of last four games, scoring 29.8 pg; they’ve averaged 8.0/9.9 ypp in last two games, and averaged 46+ yards/drive in each of last three weeks. Philly allowed average of 20.7/26.5/20.0 ypd in last three games, giving up just one TD on last 24 drives in last two games, so good matchup between Johnson’s blitzes and veteran QB Brees. Six of last eight Saint games went over the total.

Redskins (7-7) @ Vikings (8-6) — Sunday night game is huge, as Redskin win would put Saints in driver’s seat for #6 seed, with Skins poised to pounce should Saints falter. Vike QB Jackson hurt calf late in Monday’s game; status unknown; there is very large dropoff to #2 QB Bollinger. Washington is 3-4 on road, with two of three wins in Swamp; they’re 3-2-1 as road dog, with away losses by 3-45-5-6 points, but they were all with Campbell at QB. Collins was awful in gusty winds last week (8-25/156); interesting to see how he fares in dome, vs Viking defense that held last five foes to average of 52.8 rushing yards/game. Sign Vikings might be really good; in last five weeks, they’ve won two games with a -3 turnover ratio.

Falcons (3-11) @ Cardinals (6-8) — Arizona is 1-3 vs spread as favorite this year; in weak NFC, no excuse for this team to miss playoffs- they just weren’t a clutch team, converting just 17 of last 58 (29.3%) on 3rd down in last five games- they’ve committed 8+ penalties for 64+ yards in nine of last 10 games, which helped keep them from postseason. Last week at Superdome, Saints averaged 9.9 yards/pass, had just nine third down plays out of 60 they ran, so defense was awful, but Atlanta is in tank with their coaches scrambling to find employment for next year. Last week, they got outgained 285-133, completed 4-15 passes with just five first downs; they’re 0-5 vs spread in losing last five games, by 24-18-12-20-34 points.

Ravens (4-10) @ Seahawks (9-5) — Baltimore had ball on Miami’s half-yard line with 0:12 left last week, down 16-13, 4th down- they had 163 rushing yards in game, and Miami alum McGahee running ball, but they kick tying FG, lose in OT to winless Dolphins. You think these players believe in those coaches? Neuheisel has interviewed for UCLA job, so distractions aplenty, with banged-up Boller at QB, bad news vs Seahawk club that annoyed Holmgren in loss at Carolina last week, running ball just 14 times for 44 yards in 13-10 loss that was 0-0 at half. Last home game for Seattle team that will have home playoff game in two weeks; think they go hard here, maybe rest some guys at Atlanta next week.

Jets (3-11) @ Titans (8-6) — Big question here is did Jets leave anything in tank after their grudge match last week in Foxboro; Clemens got KO’d early, Pennington came in and relieved; had Jets not come up empty on three of four trips to red zone (kicked one FG in four trips) they could have handed Pats first loss. Not sure which QB goes here— Pennington probably gives Jets better chance to cover. Tennessee is 2-4 in last six games, with wins by 8,9 points; they’re 4-4 vs spread as favorite this season, Jets are 3-2 as road dog, with losses away from Swamp by 7-3-7-31-10 points. Titans want to run ball; in last three games, they gained 153-131-148 yards on the ground. Four of Jets’ last five games stayed under total.

Buccaneers (9-5) @ 49ers (4-10) — Garcia returns to old home, finds 6-year veteran Hill making just second NFL start for 49ers, who upset Bengals last week’s in Hill’s starting debut. Maryland alum was 21-28/181 last week, as Niners converted 9-15 third downs, didn’t turn ball over. Bucs are 3-4 on road, with wins at Carolina (20-7), Atlanta (31-7), Saints (27-23)- they’re 5-2-1 vs spread as favorite this season, 1-1 on road. Last road game for Tampa club that is locked into home playoff game in two weeks. 49ers are 2-5 at home, 2-4 as home dog, with losses at Candlestick by 20-2-21-4-20 points. They’re 4-0 this season when scoring 17+ points; Bucs allowed 23+ in four of last five road games.

Monday, December 24

Broncos (6-8) @ Chargers (9-5) — San Diego is rolling, (4-0 SU, vs spread last four games) with wins at home by 37-18-2-25-14 points in last five home games. Cutler is from Santa Claus, IN, hard to buck him on Christmas Eve, but Denver lost three of last four games, giving up 31+ points in all three losses; they’re 1-5 in last six road games, with losses by 18-37-3-14-18 pts. In last three games, Norv’s offense ran ball for 191-148-274 yards; they crushed Broncos 41-3 in first meeting, running ball for 214 yards. Shanahan cut the punter this week, so he must be in great mood. Six of last seven Denver games went over the total. Denver is 2-4 vs spread as underdog this season- this is their fourth road game in last five weeks.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday



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NFL Gameday
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Saturday NFL Gameday

Dallas at Carolina

The Cowboys had their seven-game winning streak snapped last week after a 10-6 loss to Philadelphia as a 10-point favorite. Tony Romo had his worst game of the season while completing 13-of-36 passes for 214 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Romo suffered a thumb injury on his throwing hand in the loss, but is expected to start on Saturday. Against Philadelphia, Marion Barber was held to 32 rushing yards on seven carries. Tight end Jason Witten led Dallas with eight receptions for 113 yards, while Terrell Owens was limited to two catches for 37 yards. Dallas will likely be without safety Roy Williams this week, as he has been suspended for one game for a horse-collar tackle he made on Donovan McNabb last week.

The Panthers upset Seattle 13-10 as a 7.5-point underdog last week. Matt Moore made his first career start at quarterback for Carolina and completed 19-of-27 passes for 208 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. DeAngelo Williams scored the Panthers’ lone touchdown while rushing for 61 yards on 15 carries, and Steve Smith caught eight passes for 72 yards. Vinny Testaverde returned to practice this week, but Moore will once again get the start on Saturday. A few injury concerns to keep an eye on this week are defensive end Julius Peppers and Steve Smith. Peppers missed practice earlier in the week with a sprained knee, while Smith was held out of practice with an illness.

Dallas and Carolina clashed last season when the Cowboys defeated the Panthers 35-14 as a 5-point road underdog. Dallas is a 10.5-point favorite in Saturday’s game.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL
NFL poolies' cheat sheet


Monday, December 17

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Cheat Sheet
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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 16

Dallas at Carolina (+10 ½)

Why Cowboys cover: Still trying to lock up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Have thrown for 35 TDs this season while Carolina has allowed 19 TDs through the air. Won seven of the last eight meetings between these teams.

Why Panthers cover: Still in the playoff hunt. Rookie QB Matt Moore made his first career start and led Carolina to a win over Seattle last week as 7-point underdogs. Tony Romo is dealing with a thumb injury that affects his grip on the ball. Roy Williams might be suspended. Road team is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Total (43): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings, 4-1 in the last five in Carolina.


Cleveland at Cincinnati (+3)

Why Browns Cover: Need to win to keep pace with Pittsburgh in the AFC North. Won last meeting 51-45 as 7-point underdogs. Cincinnati has only 20 sacks this season. Favorite is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

Why Bengals cover: Have won five of last six meetings. Carson Palmer has thrown for 1,401 yards and 14 TDs in his last five games against Cleveland. Browns have allowed the most offensive yards against them in the NFL and the second most passing touchdowns.

Total (43 ½): Teams totaled 96 points in last meeting.


Green Bay at Chicago (+9)

Why Packers cover: Still trying to clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Kyle Orton was shaky in his first game as the new Bears QB last week. Are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Chicago. Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Why Bears cover: Won four of the last five meetings including a 27-20 victory in Week 5 at Lambeau Field as 3-point underdogs. Have intercepted Brett Favre 11 times in their last five meetings.

Total (39): Over is 4-0 in Packers’ last four road games and 5-0 in their last five games overall.


Houston at Indianapolis (-7)

Why Texans cover: Are 3-0 ATS with Sage Rosenfels as the starting quarterback. Colts could end up resting starters for part of the game.

Why Colts cover: Won nine of last 10 meetings. Are holding opponents to 4.47 yards per offensive play, best in the league. Peyton Manning has thrown 12 touchdowns and only one interception in his last five games against Houston. Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Total (44 ½): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.


Kansas City at Detroit (-4 ½)

Why Chiefs cover: Won last four meetings. Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Jon Kitna has thrown 11 interceptions during Detroit’s current six-game losing streak. There is a chance Larry Johnson could play this week. Detroit has allowed the most first downs in the NFL.

Why Lions cover: Home team has won three of last four meetings. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. Are averaging 22 points per game to the Chiefs’ 14.

Total (43): Over is 5-1 in Chiefs’ last six vs. a team with a losing record, and 4-0 in Lions’ last four games overall.


N.Y. Giants at Buffalo (+3)

Why Giants cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Can clinch a playoff birth with win or tie. Bills have one of the worst offenses in the league.

Why Bills cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Won five of last seven meetings. Averaging 131.5 yards rushing in their last four games. New York is only averaging 16 points per game in their last five.

Total (32 ½): Under is 6-0 in Giants’ last six road games and 4-1 in Giants’ last five games overall.


Oakland at Jacksonville (-13)

Why Raiders cover: Have covered in three of last four games. Have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns this season.

Why Jaguars cover: Won last two meetings. Are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Can clinch a playoff birth with win or tie. Fred Taylor has rushed for 572 yards and three TDs in his last five games. Raiders lost offensive leader Justin Fargas for the season with a sprained MCL.

Total: (38 ½): Over is 7-0-1 in Jaguars’ last eight games and 4-1 in Raiders’ last five games.


Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3)

Why Eagles cover: Won seven of last nine meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Saints. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Have picked off Drew Brees four times in their last two meetings.

Why Saints cover: Still fighting to make the playoffs. Brees has been on fire with 1,082 yards passing and 10 touchdowns in his last four games. Reggie Bush could return from a knee injury. Aaron Stecker has totaled 248 yards and two TDs in two games while filling in for Bush.

Total (47): Over is 4-0 in Saints’ last four home games.


Atlanta at Arizona (-10 ½)

Why Falcons cover: Won four straight meetings. Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NFC. Arizona has allowed 35 touchdowns this season.

Why Cardinals cover: Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games and have been outscored 161-53 during that time. Atlanta could be without starting DE John Abraham who suffered knee injury on Sunday.

Total (43 ½): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.


Tampa Bay at San Francisco (+6)

Why Buccaneers cover: Are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Jeff Garcia gets to face the team that released him in 2004. Earnest Graham has scored a TD in six straight games.

Why 49ers cover: Shaun Hill has a 98.6 quarterback rating since taking over as the starter. Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and has won eight of the last 10. Niners have won last five meetings in San Francisco.

Total (37): Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.


Baltimore at Seattle (-10)

Why Ravens cover: Have won last three meetings. Willis McGahee ran for 116 yards and four TDs in his only career game against Seattle.

Why Seahawks cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 333 yards and five TDs in their last meeting. Ravens QB Kyle Boller is day-to-day with a concussion. Ray Lewis will play with a dislocated finger. Ravens are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games.

Total (38): Over is 5-0 in Ravens’ last five games.


N.Y. Jets at Tennessee (-9)

Why Jets cover: Won last three meetings. Have covered in four of last six games. Chad Pennington could return as the starting quarterback if Kellen Clemens can’t go. Vince Young has thrown 10 interceptions in his last seven games.

Why Titans cover: Have AFC’s fourth-best rush defense. Need to win to stay in the playoff race. League’s fourth-best rush offense gets to face the NFL’s 30th-ranked rush defense.

Total (37): Over is 4-1-1 in Titans’ last six games.


Miami at New England (-21 ½)

Why Dolphins cover: Coming off first win of the season. New England has failed to cover in three games this season with spreads bigger than 19 points. Pats have only covered twice in last six games after covering 11 straight times going back to last season. With nothing left to gain, Patriots could rest their regulars in the second half.

Why Patriots cover: Are still looking to become second team to go undefeated in a season. Tom Brady and Randy Moss are still looking to set NFL records. Home team is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in New England.

Total (45): Over is 8-2 in Patriots’ last 10 home games and 4-1 in Dolphins’ last five vs. AFC East.


Washington at Minnesota (-6 ½)

Why Redskins cover: After losing four straight, have won two consecutive games covering both times. Need to win to stay in the playoff race. Holding opponents to 15.5 points in their last four games.

Why Vikings cover: Won three of last four meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Saints loss or tie. Washington is dealing with multiple injuries in many key areas. Holding opponents to 67.6 rushing yards per game.

Total (41): Over is 5-1 in Vikings’ last six home games.


Denver at San Diego (-9)

Why Broncos cover: With both Javon Walker and Brandon Stokley hurting, Brandon Marshall has stepped up his play and has 21 catches, 222 yards receiving and two TDs in his last two games. Jay Cutler has five TDs and zero interceptions in his last two games.

Why Chargers cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. LaDainian Tomlinson has scored 10 touchdowns in his last five games against Denver. Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Have picked off opposing quarterbacks 27 times this season.

Total (47): Over is 5-1 in Broncos’ last six road games.

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[pm530]

National Football League – over/under plays

NFL
Total bias: Week 16 over/under plays


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NFL over/under picks
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Total bias: Week 16 over/under plays

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals – under 44

Arizona struggles with defending the pass but things are so discombobulated in Atlanta right now the Cards secondary will look like a group of seasoned pros.

The Falcons’ offense is so bad the Cards could score 40 and the game would probably still play under. Bobby Petrino’s quick exit messed with whatever direction the Dirty Birds had on offense.

Chris Redman proved he’s better suited selling insurance than he is quarterbacking in the NFL. He completed just 26 percent of his passes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.

Arizona will jump out to an earlier lead and then milk the clock in the second half. Look for coach Ken Whisenhunt to call Edgerrin James’ number early and often.


Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots – under 45

The Dolphins grabbed their first victory and netted themselves the Big Tuna all in one week. None of this will help the Fish find the painted grass Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium.

New England has shown it is susceptible against the run but Miami is particularly shorthanded in its backfield. Something tells me Samkon Gado isn’t in the same class of running backs as Willie Parker, Brian Westbrook and Willis McGahee.

The Pats played under for the second week in a row and I see the trend continuing. Tom Brady isn’t overly concerned about eclipsing Peyton Manning’s single-season record of 49 TD passes. New England wins big but the Fish won’t score enough to push the total over 45 points.


Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings – under 40 ½

Todd Collins’ familiarity with Al Saunders’ playbook has helped during Washington’s recent two-game win streak. The wily veteran is an effective game manager but his talents are limited. The Redskins’ offense is at its best when Clinton Portis has the ball in his hands.

The problem is Minnesota’s defensive tackle duo of Kevin and Pat Williams (both Pro Bowlers) makes it extremely difficult for opponents to gain any yards on the ground. The Redskins will struggle to score if they have to rely on Collins’ arm rather than Portis’ feet.

I expect a pitchers’ duel in this one: low scoring and over in a hurry.


Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record: 25-20

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Friday, December 21

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Today's NBA analysis

Hot Teams
-- Lakers won six of their last eight games.
-- Celtics won nine of their last ten games.
-- Wizards woin six of their last eight games, covered 14 of 19. Hawks also won six of their last eight games.
-- Pacers won last three games, covered 11 of last 15.
-- Pistons won three in row, 12 of last 15 games. Grizzlies are 2-1 in last three games, after losing previous six; they upset Spurs at home in last game.
-- Mavericks won last four games, but covered one of last five.
-- Portland won its last nine games. Denver won six of last nine games, but is 0-5 vs spread in last five contests- they won in double OT at home last night.
-- Raptors won five of their last seven games. Seattle is 5-3 vs spread in its last eight games.

Cold Teams
-- Bobcats are 2-11 vs spread in last thirteen games. Knicks are 1-5 vs spread in game after their last six wins.
-- 76ers are 4-9-1 vs spread at home this season.
-- Orlando lost last three home games by 6-11-4 points. Jazz lost eight of its last nine games.
-- Bulls are 2-6 vs spread in game following a win this season.
-- Wolves lost last six games, but are 5-3 vs spread in last eight.
-- Clippers are 4-13 SU in last 17 games, but covered four of last five games.

Series Records
-- Knicks, Bobcats split four games last season.
-- Home side won both Laker-Philly games last season.
-- Orlando beat Jazz twice LY, 88-75/101-90.
-- Celtics won 92-81 at Chicago Dec 8, their first win in last four tries against the Bulls.
-- Wizards won four of their last five games vs Atlanta.
-- Pacers lost to Minnesota twice LY, 79-71/86-81.
-- Pistons won last three vs Memphis: 95-86/92-89/112-103.
-- Home side won all three Dallas-Clipper games last season.
-- Portland, Denver already split pair in Denver this season.
-- Home side won both Toronto-Seattle games last season.

Totals
-- Four of last five New York games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Laker games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Celtic games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Wizard games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Indiana games went over the total, but under is 7-1 in last eight Minnesota games.
-- Last four Detroit games all stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2 in Portland's last nine home games.
-- Four of last five Toronto games stayed under total.

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Tips & Trends

NBA


Friday, December 21

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Tips and Trends
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Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics (ESPN | 7 PM ET)

Bulls are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games against the Atlantic Division.
Celtics are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against a losing team.
The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.


Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic (8 PM ET)

Jazz are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against the Southeast Division.
Jazz are 0-7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Magic are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS win.


Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (ESPN | 9:30 PM ET)

Clippers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games on 2 days off.
Mavs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 11+ points.


Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (10 PM ET)

Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
Nuggets are 20-8-1 ATS in the the last 29 meetings.
Blazers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Hot Lines

NBA
Hot Lines


Friday, December 21

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Pick 'n' roll: Friday's best NBA bets
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Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics (-10, 182 1/2)

The Celtics fell to Detroit 87-85 on Wednesday, their first home loss this season. They should avenge that loss on Friday against the struggling Bulls.

Boston routed the Bulls on Dec. 8 in the Windy City, covering the spread as a five-point road favorite. Ray Allen led the Celtics in scoring with 21 points.

Bulls center Ben Wallace could miss Friday’s contest with a sore foot. Wallace is averaging a meager four points and eight rebounds.

Pick: Celtics


Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards (-5, 189 1/2)

The Hawks are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six outside the Peach State.

Hawks forward Josh Smith accumulated 39 points, 25 rebounds, five steals and five blocks in his last two road contests. Smith is also leading the league in blocks, managing more than three per night.

Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with the Wizards.

Pick: Hawks


New York Knicks at Charlotte Bobcats (-5, 191)

So the Knicks outlasted the Cavs Wednesday. Big deal. New York still stinks.

New York is a dismal 1-9 straight up (SU) on the road, including last Friday’s setback to the struggling Bulls. Charlotte, on the other hand, has been tough at home. It has won three of its last four in the Tar Heel State, including Wednesday’s 98-92 triumph over Utah.

The Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bobcats.

Pick: Bobcats


Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic (-4, 207 1/2)

Orlando has been bad. The Jazz, though, have been worse.

The Jazz are a miserable 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 and have lost two straight on the road, including Wednesday’s loss to the Bobcats. Utah center Mehmet Okur is questionable for Friday. Okur, averaging 12 points and five boards, has missed four straight contests with a shoulder ailment.

Orlando is a remarkable 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight showdowns with the Jazz.

Pick: Magic


Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers (+3, 199 1/2)

Philly native Kobe Bryant loves playing in his hometown.

Bryant scored 30 points in his last visit to the City of Brotherly Love and is averaging more than 38 points in his last three meetings with the Sixers. Bryant also ranks second in the league in scoring this season, averaging more than 26 points.

Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last six home games. The Lakers, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS in their last four outside L.A.

Pick: Lakers


Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons (off)

The Pistons have won eight of their last 10, including Wednesday’s victory over first-place Boston.

Detroit outscored its last three home opponents by an average of 17 points. It is also 5-1 ATS in its last six matches in the Motor City.

Memphis, meanwhile, could be without starter Pau Gasol, who has missed four straight games with a toe ailment. Gasol is averaging 17 points and seven rebounds.

Pick: Pistons


Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves (+5 1/2, 202)

Don’t overlook the rebuilding Timberwolves.

Minnesota leading scorer Al Jefferson is averaging 20 points and 12 boards and he’s shooting 49 percent from the field. Boston College product Craig Smith is also having a strong sophomore campaign, averaging 11 points and four rebounds.

The Timberwolves toppled the high-octane Suns in Minneapolis on Dec. 8. ****** tallied 32 points and 20 rebounds in the victory.

Minnesota has also covered the spread in two of its last three meetings with the Pacers.

Pick: Timberwolves


Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (-12, 192)

The Clippers are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last five outside L.A.

However, with starters Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley sidelined with injuries it is unlikely that L.A. can compete with the surging Mavericks.

Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last seven and has won two straight over the Clippers dating back to last April.

Pick: Mavericks


Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-2, 202 1/2)

There is a bad taste in Denver’s mouth stemming from its 116-105 home setback to the Trail Blazers last Sunday.

The Nuggets, though, can avenge that defeat Friday at the Rose Garden.

Denver has won eight of its last 10 tilts with the Blazers dating back to 2005. That includes a 17-point home victory over Portland on Nov. 14.

Pick: Nuggets


Toronto Raptors at Seattle SuperSonics (+4 1/2, 193 1/2)

The Raptors have failed to cover in the first two games of their western road trip.

Chris Bosh, though, should lead the Raptors to a much needed cash grab against the struggling SuperSonics. Bosh is averaging 20 points and 11 rebounds in his last seven contests. Overall, the forward is averaging 18.9 points and 8.8 rebounds.

Toronto is looking for its third victory in three contests with Seattle. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six matches between the Raptors and Sonics.

Pick: Raptors

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Matchup Notes

NBA
Betting Matchup Notes


Friday, December 21

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Today's key NBA betting matchup notes
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Friday's key NBA matchup notes

Chicago at Boston (-10, 182 1/2)

The Celtics won 92-81 on Dec. 8 in Chicago in the teams' first meeting this season, ending an eight-game losing streak to the Bulls. Chicago, however, has won four straight in Boston.


Atlanta at Washington (-5, 189 1/2)

Atlanta has dropped 12 of its last 14 against the Wizards, and has lost seven straight in Washington since an 83-73 victory on Dec. 30, 2003.


New York at Charlotte (-5, 191)

New York is just 1-9 on the road this season and 2-4 all-time in Charlotte against the Bobcats.


Utah at Orlando (-4, 207 1/2)

The Magic have won three straight and six of seven against the Jazz, including four straight in Orlando.


L.A. Lakers at Philadelphia (+3, 199 1/2)

Los Angeles won 87-84 on Feb. 20, 2000, for its most recent victory at Philadelphia, but has won two of the last three meetings between the clubs overall.


Memphis at Detroit

Detroit has won five straight over the Grizzlies and 18 of the 23 all-time meetings.


Indiana at Minnesota (+5 1/2, 202)

The Timberwolves have won three of four against the Pacers and two straight in Minneapolis.


L.A. Clippers at Dallas (-12, 192)

The Mavericks won both meetings in Dallas last year by an average of 21 points, and have won five of their last seven against the Clippers.


Denver at Portland (-2, 202 1/2)


Toronto at Seattle (+4 1/2, 193 1/2)

Chris Bosh has been dominant in his last three games against the Sonics, averaging 25.7 points and 11.3 rebounds in leading the Raptors to wins in two of those contests.

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