2007-2008 Bowl Season Trend Factors And Indexes

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NCAAF
Preview


Thursday, December 27

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NCAAF Preview – Holiday Bowl (Texas vs. Arizona State)
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No Holiday for Horns against ASU attack

College football bowl season usually reserves the games with public appeal for New Year’s Eve and afterward. This season’s Holiday Bowl between the Arizona State Sun Devils and Texas Longhorns is a sparkling exception.

Arizona State and Texas are big programs with massive fan bases. They also maintained their places in the national polls nearly all season, finishing Nos. 11 and 17, respectively.

Their Dec. 27 meeting in San Diego is the elite pre-New Year’s bowl game this year. ESPN knows what fell in its lap, sending its A-list team of Brent Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit and Lisa Salter to call the game.

I’m left to wonder, then, if the Holiday Bowl’s public appeal will be revealed in the betting line.

Arizona State posted a better record than Texas and won a share of the Pac-10 crown, but the Longhorns have owned the early betting momentum. Texas opened as a 1 to 1 ½-point favorite in early December, with the spread widening to 2 ½ points by the middle of the month.

Three explanations for the betting shift away from the Sun Devils immediately popped into my head:

1. ASU went 0-4 against the spread (ATS) in November and December.

2. Two of those dropped paydays were nationally-televised losses against its biggest Pac-10 challengers.

3. The Sun Devils are disappointed they were passed over for the Fiesta Bowl and are due for a letdown.

All three anti-ASU arguments have some merit. But when I compare this year’s Holiday Bowl combatants, two potential mismatches jump out at me. Texas’ defense comes up short in both of them.

The Sun Devils can’t protect quarterback Rudy Carpenter. ASU allowed 50 quarterback sacks this season, third-most in the entire country, including 15 in its two losses to Oregon and USC.

Texas, however, doesn’t boast the defensive schemes to take advantage of ASU’s biggest weakness. Head coach Mack Brown stresses stopping the run at the expense of a pass rush. The defensive unit’s top individual players are run-stuffing tackles Frank Okam and Derek Lokey.

Of course, sacks aren’t always the result of a poor offensive line. If a secondary can prevent receivers from finding open space, quarterbacks become vulnerable as the linemen protecting them tire. Unfortunately, the secondary is the Longhorns’ other defensive weakness.

Texas’ final four opponents threw for 393 yards per game. It’s a big number that isn’t inflated by teams attempting comebacks by abandoning the ground game. Of the four, only Texas Tech trailed the Horns early and it is a team that relies on the pass anyway. All four foes recognized the Horns’ vulnerability to passing and threw the ball with success.

They hit 70 percent of their pass attempts, connecting on 13 touchdowns through the air while Texas forced only three interceptions. The Longhorns even made Texas A&M look like a deadly passing team in the season finale at College Station.

Carpenter played with an injured hand late in the season, but is feeling more comfortable as the Holiday Bowl approaches. Give him time and he’ll connect all night in San Diego’s pass-friendly weather.

ASU also has a talented group of targets. Sophomore Chris McGaha has become Carpenter’s go-to guy, Michael Jones is a dangerous red-zone threat, and Kyle Williams and Rudy Burgess might be the best receivers of the bunch.

I know better than to base a bet on one potential mismatch that may or may not materialize. Sportsbooks take in a ton of cash during bowl season, so bettors can count on sharp lines everywhere you look.

All the same, I hope money keeps coming in on Texas. As long as Carpenter stays on his feet, I think he has the arm and the targets to regularly hang points on the Horns. An ASU line of +3 or better, then, could be a Christmas gift to unwrap on Dec. 27.

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[pm530]

College Football – Write up (December 28)

NCAAF
Write-up

2007-2008 Bowl Analysis
All three Bowl games for December 28
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Friday, December 28

#9-- Champs Sports Bowl, beautiful downtown Orlando, 12/28
Senior QB Ryan led Boston College to 8-0 start, but 8th win was 14-10 at Va Tech, when Eagles trailed 10-0 in last 2:00, and flaws were exposed. BC went 2-3 after that, going -8 in turnovers, as Ryan was picked off nine times, including twice by Hokies in the rematch (ACC title game). Eagles are 8-0 when they allowing 17 pts or less, 2-3 otherwise- they led at half in just one of last six games. BC failed to cover last four tries as favorite. In their last six games, Eagles ran ball for just 62.8 ypg. Under now-NC State coach O’Brien, BC won its last seven bowls (6-1 vs spread).

Michigan State beat Pitt, Notre Fame to go to 4-0 (those wins looked better then than now), then had 1-5 skid, before beating Purdue, Penn State to get momentum for this, in Dantonio’s first year as HC. All five Spartan losses are by seven points or less- they lost pair of OT games (Northwestern, Iowa), had trouble stopping run late in year (allowed 167+ rushing yards in four of last five games). BC is more of passing team, so not sure if they can exploit that weakness.

Michigan State is in bowl for first time in four years, so they’re thrilled to be in warm weather, while BC players are probably a little disappointed, especially after 8-0 start. Eagles are 4-11 vs spread in last 15 tries as road favorite. As usual with a Big 11 team, BC’s last game was two weeks later than State's, which is why conditioning should favor State. Neither coach has much bowl experience, BC has the senior QB who is used to winning these bowl games.


#10-- Texas Bowl, Houston, Dec 28
If you're in this game, you didn't have a great year; TCU was 4-4 at one point, then won three of last four games (lone loss was a respectable 27-22 loss at BYU); they outscored foes 63-22 in the second half of those four games. Horned Frogs also used two QBs most of season; they were 1-4 vs bowl teams, beating only New Mexico (37-0). TCU has young OL with one senior starter; Patterson is 3-3 in bowls. Frogs covered last three tries as fave, were 5-4 for season.

Houston coach Briles bolted for Baylor and took his assistants with him, at least the guys on offense, so Cougars are short on coaches. They replaced Briles with an Oklahoma assistant, but he is still in Norman. Cougars won six of last seven games after a 2-3 start; they beat the only Mountain West team they played (Colorado State 38-27), but are 0-4 vs bowl squads this season. They used two QBs in most every game and scored 34+ points in six of their last seven games. They gave up 30+ points in all four of their losses, are 1-2 as an underdog this season.

This game is in Houston, but Coogs often hurt for support; it is tough to endorse team whose coach just walked out on them. It had to be noted that although Briles rebuilt Houston's program, Cougars' last bowl win is still back in 1980. TCU had an uneven season, but played well down stretch. In game that is televised on NFL Network (meaning no one gets to see it), if you made me lean to one team, I would probably give a weak nod to TCU.


#11-- Emerald Bowl, San Francisco, 12/28
Maryland won last three bowls by average score of 32-6. Terps might have had more injuries than anyone in country this year, but some of those guys are healthier now; Terps were 4-2 after beating Georgia Tech 28-26, then went 2-4 down stretch, beating BC and NC State in pair of upsets, waxing Wolfpack 37-0. Terps are 2-4 in games decided by 8 points or less. Maryland was dog in nine of their last ten games (4-5 vs spread); their last couple opponents were just 3-25 on third down, so defense improved as season rolled on. Terps are x-x vs bowl teams in 2007.

Oregon State was 2-3, losing 34-3 at Cincinnati, 44-32 at ASU (in game they led 19-0), then 40-14 to UCLA in game they led 14-12 in second half. Very strange team, but they won six of last seven winning wild 31-28 game at Cal (vs freshman QB), snaking out a 29-23 win vs Washington (when horrible call almost cost them game) and beating Dixon-less Oregon in Civil War (but 38-31 in OT). Beavers are grind-it-out short passing team that had ratio of +1 in turnovers, but had games of -5/+3/-4/+4/+8. A hot/cold type club, and one playing their backup QB, who was once WR.

Always concerned about Pac-10 team playing in this game; not exactly garden spot for a bowl, compared to other places, but I guess Oregon State should be happy to be in any bowl, having started season 2-3. The eastern-most team has won four of last five Emerald Bowls; both coaches are offensive-minded, though injuries are problem at QB for both squads. I have a selection on this game in the box below.

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[pm530]

College Football – Report

NCAAF


Tuesday, December 24

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Michigan State benches five players, including key defenders
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ORLANDO, Fla. -- Defensive standouts Jonal Saint-Dic and SirDarean Adams are among five Michigan State players who will sit out the Champs Sports Bowl on Friday against No. 14 Boston College because of academic or other violations.

Oddsmakers have Boston College listed as a 3 1/2-point favorite.

The Spartans said Monday that Saint-Dic, a senior defensive end, and three other players are academically ineligible for the bowl game. Adams, a senior linebacker, violated unspecified team rules.

The other ineligible players are wide receiver and return specialist Terry Love, wide receiver/cornerback T.J. Williams and offensive guard Abre Leggins.

''We're obviously disappointed for these young men and for their teammates,'' coach Mark Dantonio said in a release from the bowl site. ''We will miss them and their contributions on and off the field here at the Champs Sports Bowl.''

Dantonio said he makes no excuses for any of the players being ineligible.

''We have stressed the importance of finishing things all season, both in the classroom and on the playing field,'' the coach said. ''Michigan State provides its student-athletes with a tremendous amount of resources and tools for academic success.

''Each individual must be committed to putting forth the time and effort in the classroom, resulting in a reasonable amount of success.''

Adams was a key player in the game that made Michigan State (7-5) bowl eligible. He made two interceptions in the Spartans' 48-31 victory over Purdue on Nov. 10.

Dantonio would not discuss the violation, but said Adams' situation ''provides a learning opportunity for all of us. We continually stress to our student-athletes the importance of making good decisions, both on and off the field. It is unfortunate that we all must suffer the consequences.

''This provides playing opportunities for others. We've been pleased with the way our team has responded to challenges throughout this season, and we will again need to measure up.''

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[ironman95]

Thanks for your efforts guys.
May Christmas bring you all you deserve for your hard work here.
Happyy Holidays!!

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College Football - Gameday

NCAAF
Gameday


Wednesday, December 26

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NCAAF Gameday
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College Football Gameday

The college football bowl season continues on Wednesday with the Motor City Bowl between the Purdue Boilermakers and the Central Michigan Chippewas.

Motor City Bowl
Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Purdue vs. Central Michigan

The Boilermakers ended the season on a three-game losing streak, but still qualified for a bowl game with a 7-5 record. Purdue packs a potent offense, but their defense, which ranked among the worst in the Big Ten, was unreliable all season. Quarterback Curtis Painter is coming off a solid season that saw him pass for 3300 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Running back Kory Sheets rushed for 832 yards on 156 carries with nine touchdowns, while Dorien Bryant and Dustin Keller combined to catch 143 passes for more than 1600 yards and 14 touchdowns.

The Chippewas topped the Mid-American Conference this season after finishing with an 8-5 record. Quarterback Dan LeFevour was a double threat for Central Michigan with terrific passing and rushing numbers. LeFevour passed for 3360 yards with 23 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and also led the Chippewas in rushing with 1008 yards and 17 touchdowns. Justin Hoskins also had a solid season on the ground with 649 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Central Michigan needed a high-scoring offense this season, as they had the second-worst defense in the MAC after allowing 35.8 points per game.

The Boilermakers and Chippewas met up during the regular season when Purdue defeated Central Michigan 45-22 as a 21.5-point favorite. Painter picked apart the Chippewas for 360 yards and three touchdowns, while LeFevour had 364 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns with an interception for Central Michigan. Kory Sheets also had a big game for Purdue with 144 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries.

The Boilermakers played in the Champ Sports Bowl last season and lost to Maryland. The Chippewas are making their second-straight appearance in the Motor City Bowl after defeating Middle Tennessee in Detroit last year. In this year's Motor City Bowl the Boilermakers are a 9-point favorite, while the total has been set quite high at 71.5.

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College Football - Preview

NCAAF
Preview


Wednesday, December 26

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Motor City Bowl preview: Central Michigan vs. Purdue
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Motor City Bowl
Teams: Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Date: Wednesday, Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ford Field, Detroit
Line: Purdue -9, Total 72 ½

Detroit’s Big Three automakers sponsor the Motor City Bowl, so it’s fitting that this year’s combatants pack serious horsepower. The Central Michigan Chippewas and Purdue Boilermakers should light up the Ford Field scoreboard on Boxing Day.

The schools met earlier this season, a 45-22 Purdue win on the Boilermakers’ home turf. The Week 3 win helped Joe Tiller’s boys jump out to a 5-0 start this year. Central Michigan’s loss turned out to be its second of three defeats in September. The schools’ fortunes changed once their conference schedules began in earnest.

Central Michigan earned another Motown berth by repeating as Mid-American Conference champions. The Chippewas were the MAC’s offensive dynamo under Brian Kelly last year, then did it again under new head coach Butch Jones this season. CMU led the MAC in scoring under both coaches, with the common link being sophomore quarterback Dan LeFevour.

LeFevour joined current NFLer Vince Young as the only top-flight college quarterbacks to throw for more than 3,000 yards and run for another 1,000 in the same season. The MAC offensive player of the year, LeFevour is surrounded by talent at the skill positions, especially young wideouts Bryan Anderson and Antonio Brown.

It’s a good thing CMU can score points, because its defense isn’t shy about conceding them.

Central Michigan allowed opponents 36 points a game this season, a number inflated by the Chipps’ appearances against BCS-conference opponents. They conceded 52 points to Kansas, 45 to the Boilermakers and 70 to Clemson. The defensive low-light may have been allowing 44 points to Football Championship Subdivision (formerly Division II) school North Dakota State.

A soft defense is exactly what Purdue needs to end its season on a positive note. The Boilermakers lost five of their last seven games, all against Big Ten opponents. None of the losses hurt more than the season-ending defeat at Indiana. Purdue had rallied from a 21-point deficit late in the second half, but lost the Old Oaken Bucket to its state rivals on a last-minute field goal.

The Boilermakers still bring some of the Big Ten’s top offensive talent to Detroit. Quarterback Curtis Painter tossed 26 touchdown passes against only nine interceptions this year. Tight end Dustin Keller and running back Cory Sheets excel in the red zone, and star receiver / return man Dorien Bryant might be the best athlete in the entire conference.

Purdue’s defenders will hope CMU doesn’t pack as much punch as their other Michigan-based opponents this season. Both Michigan and Michigan State scored 48 points against the Boilermakers. Still, Purdue’s ‘D’ improved its overall numbers for the second straight season under defensive coordinator Brock Spack. Purdue excels at causing turnovers, forcing 27 of them in its 12 games this year.

Central Michigan will play only its fourth bowl game in school history and has a chance to repeat as Motor City Bowl champs. The Chippewas handled Middle Tennessee State 31-14 at Ford Field last year. Purdue poses a bigger challenge to CMU, however, and the Boilermakers are hungry to end their three-game bowl losing streak.

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College Football - Gameday (Holiday Bowl)

NCAAF
Gameday

Wednesday, December 26

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NCAAF Gameday
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College Football Gameday

There's only one college football bowl game to keep bettors and pigskin fans occupied on Thursday, as Arizona State will take on Texas in the Holiday Bowl.

Holiday Bowl
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
Arizona State vs. Texas

The Sun Devils earned a spot in the Holiday Bowl after going 10-2 and finishing second in the Pac-10. A loss to Pac-10 champs USC cost Arizona State their shot at playing in a BCS Bowl. It was still a very successful season for the Sun Devils, who posted double-digits wins for the first time since 1996. On offense Arizona State is led by quarterback Rudy Carpenter, who passed for 3015 yards with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. Running back Keegan Herring rushed for 816 yards with five touchdowns, while back Dimitri Nance had seven rushing touchdowns. The Arizona State defense was ranked second in the Pac-10 after allowing 20.1 points and 334.4 yards per game.

The Longhorns ended the regular season poorly as they were upset by Texas A&M in their finale, which snapped their five-game winning streak. Texas went 9-3 on the season with all three of their losses coming against conference opponents. Texas quarterback Colt McCoy passed for 3128 yards with 21 touchdowns, but he also had a problematic 18 interceptions. Running back Jamaal Charles led the Big 12 with 1458 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. The Texas receiving corps suffered a big loss in October when No. 1 wideout Limas Sweed was lost for the season with a wrist injury. With Sweed sidelined Nate Jones led Texas with 64 receptions for 748 yards and five touchdowns, while Quan Cosby had 59 catches for 625 yards and five touchdowns. The usually strong Texas defense had its problems this season and ranked fourth in the Big 12 after allowing 24.6 points and 374.8 yards per game.

The Sun Devils played in the Hawaii Bowl last season and lost to the Warriors. Arizona State last played in the Holiday Bowl in 2002 when they lost to Kansas State. The Longhorns enter the Holiday Bowl on a three-bowl winning streak after defeating Iowa in last year's Alamo Bowl. Texas last appeared in the Holiday Bowl in 2003 when they lost to Washington State.

This will be the first ever meeting between the Sun Devils and the Longhorns. In the game Texas is a small 3-point favorite, while the total has been set at 62.

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[pm530]

College Football – Report

NCAAF


Thursday, December 27

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Baker, Bowman among five Penn State players to miss upcoming Alamo Bowl
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Alamo Bowl – scheduled for Saturday, December 29

SAN ANTONIO -- Two Penn State players charged with assault in connection with a campus fight will miss the Alamo Bowl.

Saturday's game against Texas A&M will be the second straight for the Nittany Lions without starting defensive tackle Chris Baker and backup linebacker Navorro Bowman, who also missed the regular-season finale Nov. 17 against Michigan State.

They are two of five Penn State defensive players who did not travel to San Antonio.

Oddsmakers have listed the PSU as 5-point favorites and the total is set at 51 1/2.

Baker and Bowman are scheduled to stand trial this spring on misdemeanor charges after police said they beat up a man at a fraternity party Oct. 7 at the campus student union. A judge earlier dismissed felony assault charges against them, but prosecutors refiled those counts last week.

Backup cornerback and special teams ace Knowledge Timmons will also miss his second consecutive game. Timmons faces misdemeanor charges in an incident directly after the fight.

Penn State coach Joe Paterno said two weeks ago that the three would travel to Texas, but a school official said Wednesday they did not make the trip. Offensive coordinator Galen Hall declined comment at a news conference at the Alamodome on Wednesday, referring questions to Paterno.

Also not making the trip was backup cornerback Willie Harriott, who was charged with driving drunk on Nov. 11. Harriott had also been suspended by Paterno a few games earlier this season after university police cited him on a count of underage drinking.

Backup defensive tackle Tom McEowen also did not make the trip for undisclosed reasons.

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[pm530]

College Football – Report

NCAAF


Thursday, December 27

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Oklahoma DB Holmes doesn't travel to Fiesta Bowl
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Fiesta Bowl - scheduled for Wednesday, January 2

PHOENIX -- Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops confirmed Wednesday that starting defensive back Lendy Holmes will not play in the Fiesta Bowl, leaving the third-ranked Sooners depleted in the secondary for their game against No. 9 West Virginia.

''He didn't come on the trip and won't be here,'' Stoops said upon arriving in Arizona for the Jan. 2 game.

Holmes' father told The Dallas Morning News this weekend that his son expected to be academically ineligible for the Fiesta Bowl but a school spokesman indicated that Stoops was holding out hope Holmes would be able to play.

Holmes started nine games for Oklahoma (11-2, 7-6 against the spread) this season and had been expected to move from his primary role at safety to fill in for starting cornerback Reggie Smith, who broke his toe in the Big 12 championship game.

Stoops said redshirt freshman Dominique Franks or sophomore Brian Jackson would likely start at the vacated cornerback position opposite Marcus Walker.

''We'll see how those guys work through the week. We have a lot of confidence in both of them,'' Stoops said. ''We'll continue to play like we always have.''

Senior Darien Williams is expected to start at safety in place of Holmes.

The Sooners are listed as 7 ½-point favorites with a total of 63 ½.

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[pm530]

College Football – Previews for Friday's games

NCAAF
Previews


Friday, December 28

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Previews for all three of Friday’s Bowl Games
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Champs Sports Bowl preview: Boston College vs. Michigan State
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Champs Sports Bowl
Teams: Boston College (10-3) versus Michigan State (7-5)
Date: Friday, Dec. 28, 5 p.m. ET
Location: Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, Fla.
Line: Boston College -3, 56 1/2 O/U

The Boston College Eagles and the Michigan State Spartans meet in Orlando's Champs Sports Bowl, a pair of programs that improved under first-year head coaches this season.

Boston College's rise to claim the ACC Atlantic title under new man Jeff Jagodzinski may have been the bigger surprise. The Eagles lost former coach Tom O'Brien to division rival North Carolina State. O'Brien led BC for 10 seasons and a seven-game winning run in bowl games, the nation's longest current streak.

Jagodzinski's first college head coaching job was made easier by the presence of upperclassmen throughout the Eagles' lineup. None was more important than senior quarterback Matt Ryan.

Ryan came out gunning, leading the Eagles to an 8-0 start. He led an amazing comeback win in the dying minutes at Virginia Tech at the end of October that served two purposes: it placed Boston College No. 2 in the national rankings and made Ryan the favorite for the Heisman Trophy at the time.

Eagles-fever died down in November and December, when Ryan threw more interceptions than touchdown passes and BC slumped to a 2-3 finish. The Eagles had a shot at an Orange Bowl berth but lost their rematch with the Hokies in the ACC Championship game.

The Eagles' anticlimactic conclusion to the season doesn't diminish how threatening they are to opposing teams.

The team's offensive numbers are pass-heavy. That's a natural reaction to having an NFL-ready quarterback running the show behind an experienced line that excels in pass protection. Boston College's senior backfield duo can make plays when needed. Andre Callender caught the game-winning touchdown pass against the Hokies, one of 72 catches he made on the year out of the backfield. Callender also ran for nearly 1,000 yards.

One of the only offensive glitches for the Eagles is former walk-on kicker Steve Aponavicius, who hit only 65 percent of his field goal attempts and missed four extra points this season.

Defensively, the Eagles could use the healthy return of shutdown cornerback DeJuan Tribble. However they excelled all year at stuffing the run. Boston College was the top school in the nation against the ground game, allowing opponents only 68 rushing yards per game.

There lies the battle for the Spartans, who come to Orlando boasting one of the country's top ground attacks. Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick were a nightmare lightning-and-thunder duo for opponents this year, combining for 2,159 yards and 27 touchdowns, all rushing.

MSU's new head coach Mark Dantonio rode Ringer and Caulcrick to an early-season winning record, something Dantonio's predecessor, John L. Smith, had no problem doing. The Spartans overcame their reputation for late-season collapses by shifting focus away from the run. They recognized that receiver Devin Thomas is as dangerous a player as you'll find in the Big Ten.

The Spartans delivered a pair of upset wins to close the season 7-5 as quarterback Brian Hoyer looked Thomas' way early and often. Thomas, who doubles as a kickoff return threat, caught 17 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns in the final two wins.

Michigan State will need all the offensive balance it can muster to keep up with Boston College. The Spartans' defense rarely slowed down its conference opponents, allowing 33 points per game in Big Ten action.

One shining star on the MSU defense was Jonal Saint-Dic, a finalist for the Ted Hendricks award as the nation's top defensive end. Saint-Dic was a disruptive force in opposing backfields, recording 10 quarterback sacks and setting a Big Ten single-season record by forcing eight fumbles.

Saint-Dic and fellow end Ervin Baldwin may, in fact, be the keys to the Champs Sports Bowl. If they can find ways to hassle Ryan, the Spartans could surprise. If Ryan has time to set up and throw downfield, however, the Eagles could recapture their early-season winning ways.


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Texas Bowl preview: Texas Christian vs. Houston
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Texas Bowl
Teams: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Houston Cougars
Date: Friday, Dec. 28, 2007, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Reliant Stadium, Houston
Line: TCU -3 1/2, 61 1/2

The Houston Cougars won't have far to travel to play in this year's Texas Bowl, but their home-town advantage might not make up for the mess on the sideline as they face the Texas Christian Horned Frogs.

Art Briles resigned as Houston's head coach after the regular season to take over at Baylor. Briles, who doubled as the offensive coordinator, led the Cougars to four bowl games in his five seasons in Houston. His offensive lieutenants on the sideline, Philip Montgomery and Randy Clements, also bailed for Baylor. Briles called every offensive play from the sidelines during his tenure, leaving one of the nation's most potent offenses in limbo.

At least Houston's on-field offensive talent will be at Reliant Stadium on Dec. 28. The Cougars were one of only four teams in the country to top 500 yards of total offense per game, and did so almost equally through the air and on the ground.

Quarterbacks Case Keenum and Blake Joseph took an equal number of snaps early in the season. Keenum threw more interceptions than Joseph but played a little more down the stretch because of his ability to scramble and make good things happen. Anthony Alridge remained the Cougars' main man no matter who was at QB. Alridge compiled nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage and reached the end zone 19 times.

The Cougars' defense posted average-or-better numbers in most categories in the ultra-offensive Conference-USA. So with a decent defense and a stacked offense, how did Houston miss the C-USA title game? By losing 56-7 at Tulsa in its most important game of the season, that's how. It was Houston's only loss over its final seven games.

TCU was no stranger to mystery itself. The Horned Frogs were preseason favorites to become this season's Boise State, the small-conference team with a shot at crashing the BCS. Through a game and a half, everything went according to plan.

The Horned Frogs opened the season with a shutout win over Baylor before visiting Texas. The scoreboard in Austin read 10-0 in TCU's favor at halftime, but the Horned Frogs gave up 34 second-half points and lost to the Longhorns by three touchdowns. They didn't recover from the collapse, losing to Air Force only five days later.

TCU finished 4-4 in the Mountain West, a conference it was favored to win in the preseason. The Frogs' slow start could partially be blamed on the absence of defensive end Tommy Blake, who left the team for an extended period for stress-related reasons.


Blake came back to anchor the defensive line as the Frogs won three of their final four games and clinched a bowl berth. Blake recorded a quarterback sack in each of the final three contests, a sign that he's finally on his game. Fellow defensive end Chase Ortiz recorded eight sacks on the season and can't be keyed on when Blake mans the other end of the line.

On offense, preventing turnovers was TCU's biggest improvement as the season advanced. The Frogs committed multiple turnovers in every game in the first half of the season, but did so only twice in the second half.

Houston posted a better record than TCU in 2007 and put up prettier numbers in the process. The Cougars' offensive masterminds have vacated the team, however, not great timing with TCU on deck. The Horned Frogs take pride in their defense and hope to put right at Reliant Stadium some of the wrongs that went down this season.


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Emerald Bowl preview: Maryland vs. Oregon State
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Emerald Bowl
Date: Friday, Dec. 28, 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: San Francisco, Cal.
Line: Oregon State -4 1/2, 49

The Emerald Bowl at AT&T Park pits the Maryland Terrapins against the Oregon State Beavers, a pair of perfect strangers from opposite coasts.

Maryland hasn't faced a Pac-10 opponent since 1982, but it's more than unfamiliarity that will make the Terrapins a mystery to Oregon State. The Terps were up and down all season, playing giant-killer one week and nondescript football the next.

Ralph Friedgen's team entered the season with high hopes after going 9-4 last year. The Terps stumbled to a 6-6 record this year, though their numbers were actually a little better this time around.

The difference was Maryland's performance in close games. The Terps shot towards the top of the ACC Atlantic last year when they won five straight games by a combined total of 13 points. The magic ran out this year as Maryland lost four conference games by single-digit margins.

Three wins, however, illustrate that the Terrapins can't be taken lightly.

The first was their Sept. 29 upset at Rutgers when the Scarlet Knights were ranked in the Top 10. That win featured senior running backs Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball playing power football against a staunch run defense. The yeomen duo combined for 214 yards and three touchdowns.

The second key win came on Nov. 10 over Boston College, another Top 10 team at the time. The upset was nationally televised and showcased sophomore quarterback Chris Turner outplaying his senior counterpart Matt Ryanl. At that time Ryan was still among the favorites for the Heisman Trophy.

The third win was the season-ending shutout at North Carolina State. The defense stole the show in Raleigh, a fitting payoff for talented players like outside linebacker Erin Henderson and tackle Dre Moore. Both were first-team All-ACC defenders and both are possibly NFL-bound after the Emerald Bowl.

Oregon State notched some statement wins of its own, but the Beavers' overall body of work was the most impressive part of 2007.

OSU won 10 games a year ago and looked to repeat the feat. Then Beavers lost all-purpose threat Sammie Stroughter over the summer to grief-related issues, a sign of things to come.

Stroughter returned briefly but the Beavers' talented offensive parts rarely played together. All-American guard Jeremy Perry made only three starts all season, quarterback Sean Canfield missed the last three games and perennial 1,000-yard running back Yvenson Bernard missed two of the Beavers' last four contests.

Despite the injuries, Oregon State won six of its last seven and shot up the Pac-10 standings as other schools floundered. The rally was testament both to Mike Riley's coaching and an improved defensive effort.

The Beavers' low point came in late September after conceding 40-plus points to Arizona State and UCLA in consecutive weeks. The defense didn't allow another opponent to top 28 points in regulation time.

Speed rules on Oregon State's defense. Playmaking linebacker Derrick Doggett is justifiably the unit's most recognized name, though defensive ends Victor Butler and Slade Norris introduced themselves to a number of quarterbacks this year. The duo combined for 18 1/2 quarterback sacks.

The Beavers' confidence peaked in the season finale at Oregon, where they ended the Civil War's 10-game streak of home wins. Quarterback Lyle Moevao never looked more comfortable in the pocket, though credit must go to OSU's stellar offensive line. With Perry back, the Beavers can protect the passer as well as open holes for whichever running back is healthiest.

Maryland and Oregon State aren't the most publicized schools in their respective conferences. But both the Terps and Beavers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Even better, they share a pedigree for showing up to play in the postseason. Maryland and Oregon State have each won their last three bowl games under their current head coaches.

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[pm530]

College Football - Gameday

NCAAF
Gameday


Friday, December 28

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NCAAF Gameday
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College Football Gameday

Another three-pack of bowl games arrives on Friday, as Boston College takes on Michigan State in the Champs Sports Bowl, Maryland gets Oregon State in the Emerald Bowl, and TCU faces Houston in the Texas Bowl.

Champs Sports Bowl
Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida
Boston College vs. Michigan State

The Eagles had hoped to be playing in a BCS bowl, but a loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game knocked them out of BCS contention. Boston College still had a solid season with a 10-3 record that saw them win the ACC Atlantic Division. The Eagles were led by quarterback Matt Ryan, who passed for 4258 yards with 28 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. Double-threat running back Andre Callender rushed for 956 yards and nine touchdowns on 206 carries and also led the team with 72 receptions for 705 yards and four touchdowns. The Eagles' top wide receiver was Rich Gunnell, who caught 58 passes for 793 yards and five touchdowns. On defense the Eagles were two different teams against the run and the pass. Boston College was No. 1 in the ACC against the run, while being dead last defending the pass.

Michigan State finished the regular season with an upset win over Penn State. That improved their season record to 7-5 and earned them a berth in the Champs Sports Bowl. The Spartans have a decent offense led by quarterback Brian Hoyer, who threw for 2594 yards with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season. Running back Javon Ringer was third in the Big Ten with 1346 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Jehuu Caulcrick may have only rushed for 813 yards, but he also had a team-leading 21 touchdowns. The Spartans' defense was middle of the road in the Big Ten after allowing 26.8 points and 351.3 yards per game during the season.

Heading into the Champs Sports Bowl Boston College has the longest active bowl winning streak, having won their last seven bowls games. Last season the Eagles defeated Navy in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. The Spartans' last bowl appearance was in the 2003 Alamo Bowl, which they lost to Nebraska. In the Champs Sports Bowl the Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite, while the total was set at 56.

Emerald Bowl
AT&T Park, San Francisco, California
Maryland vs. Oregon State

The Terrapins barely got into a bowl game after posting a 6-6 record this season. Maryland just made it back to the .500 mark by shutting out N.C. State in their regular season finale. The Terrapins live and die by the run. Running backs Keon Lattimore and Lance Bell both rushed for more than 700 yards this season and scored double-digit touchdowns. Lattimore rushed for 789 yards with 13 touchdowns, while Bell rushed for 763 yards with 12 touchdowns.

The Beavers went on a great run to end the season and finished 8-4. Oregon State won their last three games and six of their final seven after starting the season 2-3. The Beavers' offense also relies heavily on the run. Running back Yvenson Bernard rushed for 1037 yards with 12 touchdowns this season. The Beavers defense may be a perfect match for the Terrapins, as they led the Pac-10 in rushing defense this season.

The Terrapins made it to a bowl game for the first time since 2003 last season when they defeated Purdue in the Champs Sports Bowl. Oregon State defeated Missouri in last year's Sun Bowl. In the Emerald Bowl the Beavers are a 5-point favorite and the total sits at 48.

Texas Bowl
Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas
TCU vs. Houston

The Horned Frogs finished 7-5 in the Mountain West this season. The TCU offense was inconsistent all season and averaged 32 points in their wins and only 12 points in their losses. Quarterback Andy Dalton passed for 2210 yards with 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Joseph Turner led TCU with 587 rushing yards and six touchdowns.

The Cougars finished 8-4 in Conference USA after winning six of their last seven games. Quarterback Case Keegan passed for 1924 yards with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and he also ran in nine touchdowns. Running back Anthony Alridge also had a solid season on the ground with 1566 yards and 14 touchdowns.

TCU went to the Poinsettia Bowl last year and defeated Northern Illinois. Houston went to the Liberty Bowl last year and lost to South Carolina. In the Texas Bowl TCU is a 3.5-point favorite, while the total was set at 60.

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[pm530]

College Football – Write up (December 29, 30)

NCAAF
Write-up

2007-2008 Bowl Analysis
Bowl games for December 29, 30
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Saturday, December 29

#12-- Meineke Car Care Bowl, Charlotte 12/29
Wake Forest led 14-0 after 5:00 in opener at Boston College, but lost that game, then lost to Nebraska week after that, but won eight of 10 games since. Deacons (+6) upset UConn 24-13 LY, are excited their coach hasn’t been scooped up by program with more resources- they’ve got 19 wins in the last two seasons, an unheard-of feat before Grobe got to Wake. Hard to believe that Wake will be disappointed team after an 0-2 start, but they did play in Orange Bowl LY, much bigger bowl than this. Wake covered four of its last five tries as the favorite.

UConn was 8-1 at one point, covering six games in row This is UConn’s second bowl (beat Toledo 39-10 in the ’04 Motor City Bowl (+3)); Huskies covered just four of last 15 as road dog (2-2 this year), losing last three away games this season (17-16/27-3/ 66-21)- they gave up average of 243 rushing yds/game over last five games, as West Va ripped them for 517 in season finale, and South Florida had 251. Huskies won turnover battle in nine of 12 games, broke even once- they got trounced in both games they lost TO margin- they completed more than half their passes in only two of last six games.

ACC team is 4-1 against Big East in this bowl; the only Big East winner was BC, which is now in the ACC. Best part of this bowl is that George Foreman does all the commercials for Meineke. Charlotte is ACC country, so Wake should have edge in crowd support. UConn is young team (only four senior starters) that might be happier to be here than Wake, which played in Orange Bowl LY, but Grobe is excellent coach. Wake is 8-1 this year when it scores more than 17 points; UConn held first eight foes to 17 or less, but gave up average of 29.8 pg in last four games. Favorite covered this bowl three of last four years. Would lean to Wake Forest in this game.

#13—Liberty Bowl, Memphis, 12/29
Central Florida’s star RB Smith needs 180+ yards to set all-time single season rushing record, but has to do it against the stout Mississippi State defense that is used to seeing NFL-caliber talent. UCF was 3-3 after getting blasted 64-12 by South Florida, but they won seven in row since (scoring 34+ pts in all seven), scoring 44 points in both wins vs. Tulsa, including C-USA title game. After turning ball over 16 times in first six games (-11), UCF turned it over only seven times after that (+15). Question is, can UCF QB Israel make enough plays when State puts extra guy in the box? Knights are in their second bowl (lost 49-48 to East Carolina in Hawai’i two years ago).

Miss State used freshman 3rd-string QB most of season; they allowed 17 or less points in all seven of its wins, an average of 39.8 in its losses; four of last six teams they faced ran for 200+ yards; they were 3-0 in games decided by five or less points. State sold its allotment of 30,000 tickets, while UCF struggled to sell 10,000; while Bulldogs are listed as poor on special teams, it was punt return for TD that beat Ole Miss in last 3:00 and put them in this game. This is their bowl game in seven years, first under Croomso enthusiasm is high

Liberty Bowl has had some cold weather in past, but last three editions were high scoring (44-40/31-24/44-36). Favorite covered seven of last ten Liberty Bowls. UCF has struggled as favorite away from home (1-8 vs. spread in last nine) while Miss State is used to being and dog and thrives in that role (7-2 vs spread in last nine, with four SU wins). You don’t see many bowl teams that led only three games at halftime, but State did, rallying to win four games they didn’t lead at intermission. UCF may play in weaker league but they lost by just 35-32 to Texas this year, so they can play. Both coaches worked in pros, so no edge there, although this is Croom’s first bowl as HC. Slight lean to Central Florida to get just its second win in 14 tries against SEC competition.

#14-- Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, 12/29
Penn State failed to cover its last five games on artificial turf, underlining lack of speed in program; they also don’t develop QB’s well, as evidenced by senior Morelli’s mediocre season (completed less than 50% at both Michigan schools). Lions are 2-3 on road, winning 36-31 at Indiana (-7), 31-0 at Temple (-24, it wasn’t really road game, as most fans were from PSU)- they are 7-1 when allowing less than 27 points, losing 14-9 at Michigan. Their four non-league games were against awful teams; they were 2-6 vs spread in conference. Offense did turn ball over less as year went on (16 giveaways in first six games, 7 in last six).

Texas A&M lost four of last five games, but the win was second in row vs. Texas; still they fired the coach, and new coach is finishing up his NFL duties, so interim coach is veteran mentor Darnell, who has been in this role before (oddly enough, he was replacing current Penn State OC Hall at Florida, in the late 80’s). Aggies are 1-4 on road, winning 36-14 at Nebraska, losing other four by 17-28-28-14 points. A&M had seven halves in ’07 where they were outscored by 14+ points- they were outscored 90-16 in first half of their five losses. Grittiness was not exactly a trait this team showed a lot of this season.

Game is sellout, since College Station is only 2.5 hours from the Alamo; Aggies are the much older team, with 13 senior starters, compared to just three for Penn State. JoePa is 22-10-1 in bowls, Darnell is 0-1, and that game was in 1989. Don’t trust Big 11 teams in bowls, but I have thing against interim coaches in bowl games—distractions are bad for football teams. Underdog covered last three Alamo Bowls. If you made me a take a side in this game, I’d have to decide between Penn State and the under.

Sunday, December 30

#15—Independence Bowl, Shreveport, 12/30
Alabama played in this game LY, fired its coach, spent a king’s ransom on Nick Saban, then went 6-6 and is back here again; Saban might be least popular person in entire state, so he has to be thrilled to spend few days here, after his Tide lost last four games, scoring just 12 pg in last three (no second half TD’s in those three), while his former team LSU is prepping for national title game. None of Tide’s six losses were by more than 7 points- they played lot of close games, but loss to UL-Monroe as 25-pt favorite wasn’t what Bama fans had in mind when 92,000 went to the spring game. Tide was 1-8-1 vs. spread in their last ten games, 1-5 vs spread in last six bowls, but with recovery time and veteran QB, they should play better here.

Colorado is one of few teams that comes here and is happy; they were 2-10 LY, after all, but with coach’s son at QB, Buffs improved to 6-6, but had Kansas State won its last game, Buffs would be sitting home or on ski slopes. CU had lost four of five games before crushing Nebraska 65-51 in finale, giving up 610 yards to the Huskers, but scoring 41 second half points (they trailed 35-24 at half, after giving up 55-31 points in two games before that). Buffs beat Oklahoma, only lost to Kansas 19-14, so they have talent, just not enough of it, especially on defense (three of last four foes passed for 429+ yards).

Big 12 teams won this game last three years; six of the last eight Independence Bowls were decided by four or less points. This is only one out of 32 bowls where both sides are 6-6, so loser is going to have losing season, which raises stakes a little. Game is in SEC country, obviously, but no one in Cajun Country is going to root for Tide. Colorado has a terrible defense, giving up 55-31-51 points in last three games. Game is more important for Alabama, as Buffs were 2-10 LY, have freshman QB—this season is success, no matter what. Tide’s year is not a success, no matter what, but 7-6 looks hell of a lot better than 6-7. Bama is right side here-- will be long winter if they lose.

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[pm530]

College Football - Gameday

NCAAF
Gameday


Saturday, December 29

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NCAAF Gameday
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College Football Gameday

Three more bowl games pack the college football schedule on Saturday, as Connecticut faces Wake Forest in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, UCF takes on Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl, and Penn State collides with Texas A&M in the Alamo Bowl.

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Connecticut vs. Wake Forest

The Huskies will head to a bowl game for only the second time this season. Connecticut's only other bowl appearance came in 2004 when they defeated Toledo in the Motor City Bowl. This season the Huskies finished a surprising 9-3 in the Big East. Connecticut was actually 7-1 at one point, but went on to lose two of their final three games to Cincinnati and West Virginia. The Huskies' offense was led by quarterback Tyler Lorenzen, who passed for 2269 yards with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Andre Dixon and Donald Brown split the carries on the ground, with Dixon rushing for 809 yards and three touchdowns and Brown recording 749 yards and eight touchdowns.

The Demon Deacons failed to repeat as ACC champs, but they did have another winning season at 8-4. The Wake Forest offense was once again led by Riley Skinner, who passed for 1936 yards with 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Josh Adam rushed for 887 yards with 10 touchdowns, while Kenneth Moore was a double-threat with 318 yards and thee touchdowns on the ground as well as 899 receiving yards and five touchdown receptions. Wake Forest lost to Louisville in last year's Orange Bowl and this season marks the first time the school will play in back-to-back bowl games.

The Demon Deacons are a 2.5-point favorite in the game, while the total has been set at 48.

Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
UCF vs. Mississippi State

The Knights won the Conference USA championship behind a monumental season from running back Kevin Smith. Smith is the leading rusher in college football with 2448 yards and 29 touchdowns on the season. Smith needs only 180 yards in the bowl game to surpass Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record. With 415 rushing attempts Smith has already shattered Marcus Allen's old record for rushing attempts in a single season. UCF's only other bowl appearance came back in 2005 when they lost to Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl.

Mississippi State won three of their last four games, including an upset win over Mississippi in their finale, to finish the season 7-5. The Bulldogs' offense is led by quarterback Wesley Carroll, who passed for 1353 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions. Sophomore running back Anthony Dixon led the Bulldogs in rushing with 980 yards and 13 touchdowns. The Bulldogs' last bowl game was the 2000 Independence Bowl, in which they defeated Texas A&M.

The Knights are a 3-point fave in this game, and the total comes in at 57 points.

Alamo Bowl
The Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Penn State vs. Texas A&M

The Nittany Lions were 8-4 in the Big Ten this season, but they were upset by Michigan State in their final game. Penn State's hopes in the Alamo Bowl rest on quarterback Anthony Morelli and running back Rodney Kinlaw, who carry the offense. Morelli threw for 2508 yards with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions during the season, while Kinlaw rushed for 1186 yards with 10 touchdowns. The Penn State defense was ranked second in the Big Ten after allowing 17.6 points per game. The D also ranked second against the run after surrendering 87.9 yards on the ground per game. Last season Penn State defeated Tennessee in the Outback Bowl.

The Aggies had a difficult year in the Big 12 and finished 7-5. However, Texas A&M did have a big finish to the regular season, as they upset Texas in their final game. Aggies quarterback Stephen McGee can beat you with both his arm and his legs. This season McGee passed for 2147 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he also ran for 858 yards with five touchdowns. Running back Jorvorskie Lane also had a strong season on the ground with 746 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. The Aggies will be coached by defensive coordinator Gary Darnell in the bowl game since Dennis Franchione resigned hours after Texas A&M upset Texas. It will be a short coaching job for Darnell, as former Houston Texans associate coach Mike Sherman has already been named as Franchione's replacement. Last season the Bulldogs played in the Holiday Bowl and lost to California.

This game is a rematch of the 1999 Alamo Bowl which Penn State won 24-0. In this year's Alamo Bowl Penn State is a 5.5-point favorite and the total was set at 51.5.

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[Udog]

Guys,

I first saw this post on Friday and copied it before Friday night's games. The results, posted below as 7-0, are better after last night's play.


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Betting the Best Rushing Team
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This is a list of all of the best rushing teams in the bowl games. This system worked very well last year with "running dogs" going 11-2 ATS. The best scenerio to look for is a team with the best rushing stats, with a good defense and getting the points etc.. This better "run" team info is based on (YPC gained vs opponents YPC allowed on offense & vice versa on defense).

THIS WAS POSTED PRIOR TO THE START OF THE BOWL SEASON


Navy +.85 (no surprise here since Navy is a running team)
FAU +.04
Cincinnati +.75
New Mexico +.07
UCLA +.08
ECU +.20 (very surprising considering this team is getting double digits)
CMU +.23
Texas +2.17 (A HUGE difference)
BC +.53 (plus the better defense and QB)
TCU +.16
Oregon State +2.37 (again a huge difference)
Wake Forest +.66
UCF +1.61
Penn State +.90
Bama +.51
Air Force +.55 (again no surprise since this is a run first team)
Ga Tech +2.06 (I liked Fresno until I saw this stat..It's now a no-play for me)
Oregon +.44 (This is with Dixon's numbers. But Oregon has continued for the most part to rush the ball well in his absence.
FSU +.34
Okie State +1.13 (I wasn't going to play a side here..But this may change my mind)
Auburn +.07
Tennessee +.11 (i thought Wisky would have the better numbers here)
Arkansas +1.17
Virginia +.88 (I generally throw Texas Tech and hawaii out of this system because they both use the short pass in place of the run)
Florida +1.66
Illinois +.15 ( and their getting double digits to USC)
Georgia +2.19
West Virginia +1.05
Kansas +.64 (and no one gives Kansas a chance here..Watch out!)
Rutgers +1.09
Tulsa +.35
Ohio State +.46 (Surprise Surprise! This is the reason why I'm having trouble deciding on this game).

I think Oregon State, Penn State and BC are the best "favored teams" out of this bunch.

I haven't looked yet at all of the "running dogs". But these teams look very inviting:


UCLA +6 -- WINNER
ECU +10----------WINNER
Oregon +6.5
Illinois +13
Kansas +3
Navy +11-----WINNER

The best rush teams hit at a pretty high clip of over 60%..But if you pick and choose here with the other qualifications I listed above like good defense or tougher schedules etc. then you could really clean up with this system.



7-0 SO FAR BETTING THE BETTER RUNNING TEAM


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[Kaptain]

Article on NE Pats/NY Giants

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) -The Patriots will get help from plenty of fans instead of a video camera when they return to the scene of "Spygate."

Those who aren't at the Meadowlands can still watch the final step in New England's bid for an undefeated regular season on the channel of their choice.

Interest in the potential history-making event convinced the league to allow NBC and CBS to simulcast Saturday night's game against the New York Giants nationally. It had been restricted to the NFL Network and local stations in the Boston and New York areas.

Win, and the Patriots become the first team to finish a regular season at 16-0. Lose, and Patriot-haters throughout the country can celebrate in front of their TV sets.

"It will be like the State of the Union address," an unusually cheery Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. "You can flip to every channel and see it."

New England fans who just have to be there can pay exorbitant prices online for tickets. Some are being offered by Giants fans who don't care to attend an event that has no bearing on their team's playoff status.

New York plays a first-round game at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the following weekend.

"We definitely appreciate the support of the fans. We definitely hear them when we're on the road," Patriots safety Rodney Harrison said. "We always have a lot of support on the road, but at the end of the day the game is won or lost between the lines."

The Giants (10-5) clinched a wild-card berth last Sunday with a win at Buffalo. That improved their road record to 7-1. They're 3-4 at home, where fans - like those selling their tickets for Saturday's game - may not be very supportive.

"That's probably one of the reasons why we are better on the road than we are at home," running back Brandon Jacobs said. "If it is that way and (the Patriots) got more fans, then so be it."

At least one person won't be there the way he was three months ago - the Patriots' video assistant who got caught taping the New York Jets' defensive coaches with a sideline camera in the season opener, costing Belichick and the team $750,000 in fines and a first-round draft pick.

That, too, was at the Meadowlands where the Patriots beat the Jets 38-14.

Now, New England, still without a loss, will end its regular season on the same field in front of cameras the NFL wants to be there.

Then the Patriots get to rest during their bye week. They have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

"We're not looking at the playoffs right now and we're not really thinking about being undefeated," linebacker Tedy Bruschi said. "There's a simple way how we got here, and that's focusing on the opponent that we happen to have in front of us. This week we've got a formidable one in the New York Giants."

The Giants lead the NFL in sacks and have the fourth-most productive running game in the league, led by Jacobs.

"He's 270 pounds," said Harrison, who will have to tackle him. "So that's like a Ferrari meeting a Mack truck."

The Patriots would be helped if the Giants play their regulars sparingly, since the outcome of the game has no bearing on their playoff position. Coach Tom Coughlin hasn't said what he'll do.

Belichick said he'll use his players according to what he feels is best for the team.

"This has been a very special season," Tom Brady said. "I'd hate to think that we'd go out there and not put our best out there this week."

The Giants would love to stop New England from being the first team to go undefeated in the regular season since the Miami Dolphins in 1972, who won the Super Bowl to finish at 17-0.

They'd also like to keep Brady from breaking Peyton Manning's single-season record of 49 touchdown passes and Randy Moss from passing Jerry Rice's mark of 22 scoring receptions. Each needs two more to set the records.

"Nobody in the NFL wants to see them go undefeated," defensive end Osi Umenyiora said. "If they do go undefeated, they are going to be known as that team that was just that much better than everybody else. I don't want to see that."

The Patriots need six points to break Minnesota's record of 556 in a season set in 1998 when Moss was a rookie with the Vikings. They've outscored opponents by a record 312 points with a margin of 36.7-15.9 per game. They're tied with Tampa Bay for fewest points allowed, 239.

"The good thing about those records is all those didn't come against us," Giants linebacker Antonio Pierce said. "Those 551 points, those 15 wins, that wasn't against the New York Giants. This is just one game. It isn't our fault the guys before decided to give up all those points."

The Patriots are trying to make history. The Giants want to stop them.

"It would definitely help just knowing that you're playing a good team and having the opportunity to end on a high note," New York quarterback Eli Manning said. "The outcome doesn't ultimately matter, but you still want to go out there and play good football."

It matters to the Patriots and all the fans around the country who will be tuning in.

So what does Belichick think of the widespread TV coverage?

"We're just trying to get ready for the game," he said. "I'm not planning on watching it."

************************************************** *********



Weather
Morning clouds. Cool.
Hi Temp Lo Temp Wind Humidity Precip %
51°F 40°F 10mph/NW 66% 29%



Head To Head
Scoring
Total Points 551

338

Average 36.7

22.5

Passing
Net Passing Yds 4385

2917

Passing Yds/Game 292.3

194.5

Completions % 68.2

54.7

Rushing
Rushing Yds 1805

2069

Rushing Yds/Game 120.3

137.9

Rushing Avg 4.2

4.6

Complete Head To Head


New England New York


Key Players

New England Patriots

Randy Moss Rec. 92
Rec. Yds 1393
Rec. TDs 21
Rec. Avg 15.1
Rushing Att. 0
Rushing Yds 0
Rushing TDs 0
Rushing Avg. 0
New York Giants

Eli Manning Pass Att. 497
Pass Comp. 275
Passing Yds 3085
Passing TDs 19
Ints 19
Rushing Att. 26
Rushing Yds 56
Rushing Avg. 2.2





INJURIES
DOUBTFUL TE Kyle Brady (Foot)
FB Kyle Eckel (Stomach)

QUESTIONABLE FS Willie Andrews (Foot)
G Steve Neal (Shoulder)
TE Benjamin Watson (Ankle)
G Billy Yates (Foot)

PROBABLE QB Tom Brady (R Shoulder)
SS Rodney Harrison (Thigh)



INJURIES
DOUBTFUL CB Kevin Dockery (Hip)
WR Sinorice Moss (Back)

QUESTIONABLE RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Calf)
NT Manuel Wright (Ankle)

PROBABLE WR Plaxico Burress (Ankle)
RB Brandon Jacobs (Ankle)