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1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
1* St. Louis +8 over Pitt
I like the Rams in this game because the Steelers are a bad road team (2-4 SU and ATS) and overrated because of the competition they have faced. The Steelers are fighting to win the division and for a playoff spot, but don't let that scare you. Actually, over the last 17 years teams that are out of playoff contention are 75-48-4 ATS in weeks 16 and 17 against teams that must to get into the playoffs. Pittsburgh stats are good, but I take them with a grain of salt because of their strength of schedule that is ranked 27th (was 32nd before playing the Jags last week). Amazingly the only winning teams they have beat are Seattle and the Browns twice (one was in the first week and one was a come from behind win by 3). The Steelers average 4.3 YPR (7th) and 7.45 YPPA (7th). Defensively they allow 3.8 YPR (7th) and 5.7 YPPA (2nd).
The Rams are a better team than their stats show when Jackson and Bulger are not hurt and play to their potential. The Rams average 3.7 YPR (25th) and 6.3 YPPA (25th). Defensively they allow 4.14 YPR and 7 YPPA. There are 7 trends favoring the Rams including one that is 26-6 ATS over the last 11 years. I usually don't go against my math system (I went against it once this year on the Jets last week) and it favors the Steelers by 13.8 (but after adjusting for strength of schedule it is Steelers -9), but I really like the Rams in this game.
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
1* St. Louis +8 over Pitt
I like the Rams in this game because the Steelers are a bad road team (2-4 SU and ATS) and overrated because of the competition they have faced. The Steelers are fighting to win the division and for a playoff spot, but don't let that scare you. Actually, over the last 17 years teams that are out of playoff contention are 75-48-4 ATS in weeks 16 and 17 against teams that must to get into the playoffs. Pittsburgh stats are good, but I take them with a grain of salt because of their strength of schedule that is ranked 27th (was 32nd before playing the Jags last week). Amazingly the only winning teams they have beat are Seattle and the Browns twice (one was in the first week and one was a come from behind win by 3). The Steelers average 4.3 YPR (7th) and 7.45 YPPA (7th). Defensively they allow 3.8 YPR (7th) and 5.7 YPPA (2nd).
The Rams are a better team than their stats show when Jackson and Bulger are not hurt and play to their potential. The Rams average 3.7 YPR (25th) and 6.3 YPPA (25th). Defensively they allow 4.14 YPR and 7 YPPA. There are 7 trends favoring the Rams including one that is 26-6 ATS over the last 11 years. I usually don't go against my math system (I went against it once this year on the Jets last week) and it favors the Steelers by 13.8 (but after adjusting for strength of schedule it is Steelers -9), but I really like the Rams in this game.
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