Announcement

**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 04:44 AM

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Pittsburgh's play down the stretch has been as sloppy as Heinz Field. For this reason, the Steelers may be happy to hit the manicured confines of Edward Jones Dome. Another reason would be facing the Rams. St. Louis is a woeful 1-6 at home this season and is coming off a 33-14 loss to Green Bay in which the Rams failed to score a TD in the second half for the 10th time this season. Scoring shouldn't come any easier against the top-rated Pittsburgh defense, which is allowing just 16.7 points per game and has limited six opponents to 10 or fewer points. With the Steelers desperately needing a win to stay in playoff contention, Pittsburgh looks like a good pick to cover (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 20

Game 301-302: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.597; St. Louis 123.851
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7 1/2) Under

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 307-308: Dallas at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 137.733; Carolina 127.714
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 10; 40
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+10 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 315-316: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.636; Cincinnati 126.323
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 4 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-2 1/2); Under

Game 317-318: Green Bay at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.417; Chicago 127.007
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 13 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-8 1/2); Over

Game 319-320: Houston at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.171; Indianapolis 145.701
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 16 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 46
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-7); Under

Game 321-322: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.423; Detroit 129.493
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+4 1/2); Over

Game 323-324: Miami at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 122.129; New England 150.718
Dunkel Line: New England by 28 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 22; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-22); Over

Game 325-326: NY Giants at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.184; Buffalo 129.056
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 38
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over

Game 327-328: Oakland at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.348; Jacksonville 144.198
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 21; 42
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 13; 39
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-13); Over

Game 329-330: Philadelphia at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 129.468; New Orleans 135.177
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Over

Game 331-332: Washington at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.446; Minnesota 138.901
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Under

Game 333-334: Atlanta at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.358; Arizona 130.064
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 14 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-10); Over

Game 335-336: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 123.095; Seattle 134.837
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Over

Game 337-338: NY Jets at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 125.290; Tennessee 130.879
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 9; 37
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+9); Over

Game 339-340: Tampa Bay at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 133.494; San Francisco 121.220
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 12; 39
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 6; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-6); Over

MONDAY, DECEMBER 24

Game 343-344: Denver at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 128.041; San Diego 138.363
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 10; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 8 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-8 1/2); Over

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**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 04:45 AM

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

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Thursday, December 20
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PITTSBURGH (9 - 5) at ST LOUIS (3 - 11) - 12/20/2007, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 22
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DALLAS (12 - 2) at CAROLINA (6 - 8) - 12/22/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 23
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CLEVELAND (9 - 5) at CINCINNATI (5 - 9) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (12 - 2) at CHICAGO (5 - 8) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (7 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 2) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 10) at DETROIT (6 - 8) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 13) at NEW ENGLAND (14 - 0) - 12/23/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 116-85 ATS (+22.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (9 - 5) at BUFFALO (7 - 7) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (4 - 10) at JACKSONVILLE (10 - 4) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (6 - 8) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 7) - 12/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 117-84 ATS (+24.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 37-59 ATS (-27.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-73 ATS (-30.3 Units) in home games in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-73 ATS (-30.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-76 ATS (-33.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-76 ATS (-33.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (7 - 7) at MINNESOTA (7 - 6) - 12/23/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (3 - 11) at ARIZONA (6 - 8) - 12/23/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 10) at SEATTLE (9 - 5) - 12/23/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (3 - 11) at TENNESSEE (8 - 6) - 12/23/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (9 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 10) - 12/23/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 24
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DENVER (6 - 8) at SAN DIEGO (9 - 5) - 12/24/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 04:46 AM

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 16

Thursday, December 20th

Pittsburgh at St. Louis, 8:15 EST NFL
Pittsburgh: 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
St. Louis: 2-10 ATS at home in the second half of the season

Saturday, December 22nd

Dallas at Carolina, 8:15 EST NFL
Dallas: 8-1 ATS away off a division game
Carolina: 1-5 ATS vs. NFC East opponents

Sunday, December 23rd

Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Cleveland: 7-0 ATS as a favorite
Cincinnati: 0-7 ATS off an Under

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS after allowing 14 or less points
Chicago: 1-5 ATS in home games

Houston at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST
Houston: 1-9 ATS away off a home game
Indianapolis: 15-6 ATS off 4+ wins

Kansas City at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Kansas City: 17-6 Over off 3+ ATS losses
Detroit: 11-1 ATS at home off 5+ losses

(TC) Miami at New England, 4:05 EST
Miami: 1-9 ATS vs. division opponents
New England: 15-6 ATS playing on artificial turf

NY Giants at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
NY Giants: 6-1 Under off a home loss by 10+ points
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Oakland at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Oakland: 2-11 ATS in December
Jacksonville: 6-0 ATS off BB Overs

Philadelphia at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
New Orleans: 8-19 ATS at home after winning 3 of their last 4 games

(TC) Washington at Minnesota, 8:15 EST NBC
Washington: 0-6 ATS off a road game
Minnesota: 5-1 Under vs. Washington

Atlanta at Arizona, 4:05 EST
Atlanta: 13-4 ATS away after allowing 175- rushing yards
Arizona: 6-0 Over after losing 3 of their last 4 games

Baltimore at Seattle, 4:15 EST
Baltimore: 1-8 ATS off an Over
Seattle: 17-7 ATS in home games

NY Jets at Tennessee, 4:15 EST
NY Jets: 3-12 ATS off a SU road loss / ATS win
Tennessee: 5-1 Under off a straight up win

(TC) Tampa Bay at San Francisco, 4:05 EST
Tampa Bay: 8-2 ATS vs. conference opponents
San Francisco: 2-9 ATS vs. conference opponents

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Monday, December 24th

Denver at San Diego, 8:30 EST ESPN
Denver: 2-9 ATS vs. division opponents
San Diego: 17-6 ATS off a win by 21+ points

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**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 04:47 AM

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up

Week 16 NFL schedule

Thursday, December 20

Steelers (9-5) @ Rams (3-11) — Pittsburgh now even with Browns in AFC North; they win tie-breaker, but have no wiggle room, and are 1-4 in last five road games, losing to Cards, Denver, Jets, all non-playoff teams, so they have to be little nervous. Rams try hard, but don’t protect Bulger (from Pittsburgh) well; they have yielded 19 sacks in last six games. St Louis is 1-6 at home, beating only lowly Atlanta; they’re 24 for last 75 on 3rd down (32%), so despite Jackson running well last few weeks, they don’t make critical plays that move chains and help win field position game. Tough to travel on short week (home team is 3-1 on NFL Network Thursday night games) but contending Steelers need this game, Rams don’t.

Saturday, December 22

Cowboys (12-2) @ Panthers (6-8) — In last three weeks, Cowboys gave up 124-152-134 rushing yards (5.4 yds/carry) which has to be a concern, but Romo’s thumb key concern here; he was 13-36/ 187 vs Eagles, had trouble gripping ball. Dallas now tied with the Packers for best mark in NFC, but to keep home field edge thru playoffs, they need to win out- they’re 6-0 on road (3-2 as road favorite), with wins by 17-24-1-21-1-11 points. Carolina won last two home games after losing first five; their home losses are by 13-13-24-7-25 pts. Seven of Panthers’ eight losses are by 13+ pts. Cowboys are 3-0 on grass fields this year, scoring 37-34-38, but in last five halves overall, they’ve been outscored 47-44.

Sunday, December 23

Browns (9-5) @ Bengals (5-9) — Cincy allowed 48.1 yds/drive to 49ers last week, when Niners’ previous best in any game had been 26.7, so Bengals don’t always play hard- would guess they will in rivalry game, but Browns won first meeting 51-45 in Week 2 (+6.5), outrushing Cincy 226-137, averaging 9.9 yds/pass (TY was 554-531, Browns). Cleveland is finding ways to win; they’re 7-2 in last nine games, and just 3-4 on road, with wins by 7 points (Rams), 3 (Ravens), 6 (Jets) points. Bengals are 4-3 at home, with wins last two ; they’re 2-9 if they allow 20+ points—Browns had scored 21+ in eight straight games before 8-0 win last week in blizzard. Bengals scored one offensive TD in each of last three games.

Packers (12-2) @ Bears (5-9) — This is NFL’s oldest rivalry, and Bears won first meeting 27-20 (Pack led 17-7 at half-- Bears were +4 in turnovers, had 13-yard edge in field position), but Pack now in position to get home field thru NFC playoffs, if Dallas slips up, so win here is big. Green Bay is 8-1 since first Bear game; its last three road wins all by 11+ points. Chicago was +3 in turnovers Monday night, still lost 20-13 at Minnesota; they were 1-14 on 3rd down, were outgained 372-209, and averaged just 4.5 ypp in dome. Bears lost four of last five home games; they’re 3-4 vs the spread as underdog. Pack is 6-1-1 as favorite. Over is 4-0-1 in Green Bay’s last five games.

Texans (7-7) @ Colts (12-2) — Colts locked into #2 seed for AFC playoffs, don’t have history of driving hard in such situations in past. Houston needs an upset in last two weeks for first .500 season; they lost first meeting vs Indy 30-24 in Week 3 (+5), as Manning was 20-29/267 passing, Colts were +2 in turnovers. Texans had few extra days to prepare after Thursday win last week; they’re 1-5 in last six road games, with losses by 10-20-25-10-8 points (lone ’07 road wins at Carolina, Oakland), 2-4 as road dog. Colts won last five games, but only two of those wins (vs Falcons, Ravens) were by more than seven points- they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six tries as favorite. Over is 4-2-1 in Houston road games.

Chiefs (4-10) @ Lions (6-8) — KC lost last seven games (1-6 vs spread), getting outscored 119-35 in second half (47-3 in second half of last three games); they’re actually 4-2 vs spread on road, with losses by 17-10-3-34 pts. Detroit lost last six games (1-5 vs spread) after 2-6 start; they’ve run ball less than ten times in two of last three games, would guess they try to establish Jones early here, as Chiefs allowed 153-191-215-148 rushing yards in last four games. Lions are 2-0-1 vs spread as favorite this year; this is first time since Week 9 (their last win) that they’re favored. Chiefs have been -2 or worse in turnovers in four of last six games (-12 total in last six). Lions are 6-0 vs spread when they win turnover battle.

Dolphins (1-13) @ Patriots (14-0) — Heat is off Miami after they got first win last week; they’re 0-7 on road, 2-3-2 vs spread as road dog this season, with losses by 3-3-3-10-10-3-21 points. Fish lost first game vs Patriots 49-28 in Week 7 (was 42-7 at half), as NE averaged 12.4 yards/pass attempt, scored six TDs on 10 drives, although they did put Brady back in game after backup Cassel threw INT for Miami TD. Last home game for Patriot team pursuing perfection; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four games, winning by 3-3-21-10 pts; they’re 5-2 vs spread as home favorite. Miami has been outrushed 550-174 in last three games; they won field position battle last week for first time in last nine games.

Giants (9-5) @ Bills (7-7) — Emotional day, as injured Everett (neck) expected to be on field, which will pump home crowd up; last home game for gritty Buffalo squad that is 4-3 in Orchard Park, losing to Denver (15-14), Dallas (25-24), Patriots- they’re 7-5 vs spread as underdog, 5-1 at home. Visitor won last six Giant games, as Big Blue won last six road games, last four by six or less points. In their last two games, Giants have two offensive TDs, 11 3/outs on 26 drives; they’re 16-46 (34.8%) on third down in last three games. Hard to endorse Giant receivers in potential bad weather game- Manning’s 34 IPs last week were most by any NFL QB in last forty years—about ten of them were drops.

Raiders (4-10) @ Jaguars (10-4) — If you stripped team names off performance charts, Jax would be #3 in NFL, behind Patriots, Colts; they’ve won five of last six games (6-0 vs spread), winning last three home games by 7-22-31 points; this is probably their last home game of season for road-grating offense that ran ball for 168-178-225 yards in last three games (two of three foes were Colts, Steelers). Raiders hung with Indy at home last week, losing in last 5:00; they’re 4-3 as road dog this season, with away losses by 3-14-4-7-31 pts (won at Miami, KC). Jax is 4-2 as home favorite this season; they’ve clinched playoff spot, aren’t going to get week off, so no great motivation here. Last six Jaguar games went over total.

Eagles (6-8) @ Saints (7-7) — Have feeling Philly is satisfied after upsetting hated rival Dallas last week, while Saints in the middle of playoff race. Eagles had lost three in row by total of 10 pts before Cowboy game; they’re 4-1 in last five road games (5-0 vs spread), losing only 31-28 at unbeaten Patriots. NO won three of last four games, scoring 29.8 pg; they’ve averaged 8.0/9.9 ypp in last two games, and averaged 46+ yards/drive in each of last three weeks. Philly allowed average of 20.7/26.5/20.0 ypd in last three games, giving up just one TD on last 24 drives in last two games, so good matchup between Johnson’s blitzes and veteran QB Brees. Six of last eight Saint games went over the total.

Redskins (7-7) @ Vikings (8-6) — Sunday night game is huge, as Redskin win would put Saints in driver’s seat for #6 seed, with Skins poised to pounce should Saints falter. Vike QB Jackson hurt calf late in Monday’s game; status unknown; there is very large dropoff to #2 QB Bollinger. Washington is 3-4 on road, with two of three wins in Swamp; they’re 3-2-1 as road dog, with away losses by 3-45-5-6 points, but they were all with Campbell at QB. Collins was awful in gusty winds last week (8-25/156); interesting to see how he fares in dome, vs Viking defense that held last five foes to average of 52.8 rushing yards/game. Sign Vikings might be really good; in last five weeks, they’ve won two games with a -3 turnover ratio.

Falcons (3-11) @ Cardinals (6-8) — Arizona is 1-3 vs spread as favorite this year; in weak NFC, no excuse for this team to miss playoffs- they just weren’t a clutch team, converting just 17 of last 58 (29.3%) on 3rd down in last five games- they’ve committed 8+ penalties for 64+ yards in nine of last 10 games, which helped keep them from postseason. Last week at Superdome, Saints averaged 9.9 yards/pass, had just nine third down plays out of 60 they ran, so defense was awful, but Atlanta is in tank with their coaches scrambling to find employment for next year. Last week, they got outgained 285-133, completed 4-15 passes with just five first downs; they’re 0-5 vs spread in losing last five games, by 24-18-12-20-34 points.

Ravens (4-10) @ Seahawks (9-5) — Baltimore had ball on Miami’s half-yard line with 0:12 left last week, down 16-13, 4th down- they had 163 rushing yards in game, and Miami alum McGahee running ball, but they kick tying FG, lose in OT to winless Dolphins. You think these players believe in those coaches? Neuheisel has interviewed for UCLA job, so distractions aplenty, with banged-up Boller at QB, bad news vs Seahawk club that annoyed Holmgren in loss at Carolina last week, running ball just 14 times for 44 yards in 13-10 loss that was 0-0 at half. Last home game for Seattle team that will have home playoff game in two weeks; think they go hard here, maybe rest some guys at Atlanta next week.

Jets (3-11) @ Titans (8-6) — Big question here is did Jets leave anything in tank after their grudge match last week in Foxboro; Clemens got KO’d early, Pennington came in and relieved; had Jets not come up empty on three of four trips to red zone (kicked one FG in four trips) they could have handed Pats first loss. Not sure which QB goes here— Pennington probably gives Jets better chance to cover. Tennessee is 2-4 in last six games, with wins by 8,9 points; they’re 4-4 vs spread as favorite this season, Jets are 3-2 as road dog, with losses away from Swamp by 7-3-7-31-10 points. Titans want to run ball; in last three games, they gained 153-131-148 yards on the ground. Four of Jets’ last five games stayed under total.

Buccaneers (9-5) @ 49ers (4-10) — Garcia returns to old home, finds 6-year veteran Hill making just second NFL start for 49ers, who upset Bengals last week’s in Hill’s starting debut. Maryland alum was 21-28/181 last week, as Niners converted 9-15 third downs, didn’t turn ball over. Bucs are 3-4 on road, with wins at Carolina (20-7), Atlanta (31-7), Saints (27-23)- they’re 5-2-1 vs spread as favorite this season, 1-1 on road. Last road game for Tampa club that is locked into home playoff game in two weeks. 49ers are 2-5 at home, 2-4 as home dog, with losses at Candlestick by 20-2-21-4-20 points. They’re 4-0 this season when scoring 17+ points; Bucs allowed 23+ in four of last five road games.

Monday, December 24

Broncos (6-8) @ Chargers (9-5) — San Diego is rolling, (4-0 SU, vs spread last four games) with wins at home by 37-18-2-25-14 points in last five home games. Cutler is from Santa Claus, IN, hard to buck him on Christmas Eve, but Denver lost three of last four games, giving up 31+ points in all three losses; they’re 1-5 in last six road games, with losses by 18-37-3-14-18 pts. In last three games, Norv’s offense ran ball for 191-148-274 yards; they crushed Broncos 41-3 in first meeting, running ball for 214 yards. Shanahan cut the punter this week, so he must be in great mood. Six of last seven Denver games went over the total. Denver is 2-4 vs spread as underdog this season- this is their fourth road game in last five weeks.

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**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 04:48 AM

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL

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Tips and Trends
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Thursday, December 20

Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (NFL | 8:15 PM ET)

Pittsburgh is tied with Cleveland atop the AFC North following last week's disappointing home loss to Jacksonville. The Steelers have dropped 2 straight for the 1st time this season but aren't panicking since they close out the regular season against sub-.500 teams. "Do we feel good about where we are right now - absolutely not," Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin said. "That's the mental toughness of this game - you have to stay singularly focused and in the tunnel. Every team faces trials and tribulations." EDGE: STEELERS
The Edward Jones Dome hasn't been too much of a home-field advantage for the Rams, as thousands of Packers fans made the trip to St. Louis to see their team pull off a 33-14 victory last Sunday. Rams RB Steven Jackson said that it felt like playing at Lambeau Field without the frozen tundra, and QB Marc Bulger said he expects a similar atmosphere on Thursday night. "I'd be surprised if it's not like Green Bay, the Terrible Towels and everything," Bulger said. "It'll be just as loud, I think. So we have to get ready for that." EDGE: STEELERS
Pittsburgh's primary concern is injuries to the NFL's top scoring defense, which is giving up 15.6 points per game. The Steelers could be without LB Clark Haggans (knee) and DE Travis Kirschke (rib), who is filling in for Aaron Smith, already out for the season with a biceps injury. SLIGHT EDGE: RAMS
Play after halftime has been the Achilles' heel for the Rams all season after getting off to fast starts. St. Louis has outscored opponents 144-132 in the first half only to get outscored 217-76 after the intermission. BIG EDGE: STEELERS - SECOND HALF
Steelers were 8-1 ATS in their previous 9 December games before dropping 2 in row both SU & ATS the last 2 weeks. They are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 overall.
Rams are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.

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**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 04:49 AM

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday

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NFL Gameday
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There are two early games in Week 16 of the NFL as the Pittsburgh Steelers battle the St. Louis Rams tonight, and the Dallas Cowboys face the Carolina Panthers on Saturday.

Thursday NFL Gameday

Pittsburgh at St. Louis

The Steelers lost their second straight game last week, falling to Jacksonville 29-22 as a 3-point home favorite. Ben Roethlisberger played through a sore shoulder and completed 16-of-33 passes for 146 yards with three touchdowns in the loss. Willie Parker rushed for 100 yards on 14 carries, but once again failed to find the end zone. Hines Ward caught four passes for 31 yards and a touchdown, while Heath Miller and Nate Washington also caught touchdown passes. The Pittsburgh defense, which was ranked No. 1 in the league heading into the game, surrendered 421 yards to the Jaguars including more than 200 rushing yards.

The Rams dropped to 3-11 after losing to Green Bay 33-14 as a 7-point underdog last week. Marc Bulger returned from a two-week injury layoff and completed 20-of-39 passes for 219 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Steven Jackson rushed for 143 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries, while Torry Holt caught a touchdown pass.

It’s been four years since Pittsburgh and St. Louis have squared off. Back in 2003, the Rams defeated the Steelers 33-21 as a 1.5-point favorite. The Steelers are a 7.5-point favorite in Thursday night’s game.

Saturday NFL Gameday

Dallas at Carolina

The Cowboys had their seven-game winning streak snapped last week after a 10-6 loss to Philadelphia as a 10-point favorite. Tony Romo had his worst game of the season while completing 13-of-36 passes for 214 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Romo suffered a thumb injury on his throwing hand in the loss, but is expected to start on Saturday. Against Philadelphia, Marion Barber was held to 32 rushing yards on seven carries. Tight end Jason Witten led Dallas with eight receptions for 113 yards, while Terrell Owens was limited to two catches for 37 yards. Dallas will likely be without safety Roy Williams this week, as he has been suspended for one game for a horse-collar tackle he made on Donovan McNabb last week.

The Panthers upset Seattle 13-10 as a 7.5-point underdog last week. Matt Moore made his first career start at quarterback for Carolina and completed 19-of-27 passes for 208 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. DeAngelo Williams scored the Panthers’ lone touchdown while rushing for 61 yards on 15 carries, and Steve Smith caught eight passes for 72 yards. Vinny Testaverde returned to practice this week, but Moore will once again get the start on Saturday. A few injury concerns to keep an eye on this week are defensive end Julius Peppers and Steve Smith. Peppers missed practice earlier in the week with a sprained knee, while Smith was held out of practice with an illness.

Dallas and Carolina clashed last season when the Cowboys defeated the Panthers 35-14 as a 5-point road underdog. Dallas is a 10.5-point favorite in Saturday’s game.

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**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 05:00 AM

National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL
NFL poolies' cheat sheet

Monday, December 17

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Cheat Sheet
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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 16

Pittsburgh at St. Louis (+9)

Why Steelers cover: Need to win to keep pace with Cleveland in the AFC North. St. Louis has allowed 33 touchdowns and 30 field goals so far this season. Rams are 0-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Why Rams cover: Steven Jackson will get to test a banged-up Pittsburgh defense that gave up 224 yards rushing to Jacksonville last week. In his only game against Pittsburgh, Marc Bulger threw for 375 yards with one TD. Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Total (43 ½): Under is 4-1 in Steelers’ last five road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

Dallas at Carolina (+10 ½)

Why Cowboys cover: Still trying to lock up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Have thrown for 35 TDs this season while Carolina has allowed 19 TDs through the air. Won seven of the last eight meetings between these teams.

Why Panthers cover: Still in the playoff hunt. Rookie QB Matt Moore made his first career start and led Carolina to a win over Seattle last week as 7-point underdogs. Tony Romo is dealing with a thumb injury that affects his grip on the ball. Roy Williams might be suspended. Road team is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Total (43): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings, 4-1 in the last five in Carolina.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (+3)

Why Browns Cover: Need to win to keep pace with Pittsburgh in the AFC North. Won last meeting 51-45 as 7-point underdogs. Cincinnati has only 20 sacks this season. Favorite is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

Why Bengals cover: Have won five of last six meetings. Carson Palmer has thrown for 1,401 yards and 14 TDs in his last five games against Cleveland. Browns have allowed the most offensive yards against them in the NFL and the second most passing touchdowns.

Total (43 ½): Teams totaled 96 points in last meeting.

Green Bay at Chicago (+9)

Why Packers cover: Still trying to clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Kyle Orton was shaky in his first game as the new Bears QB last week. Are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Chicago. Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Why Bears cover: Won four of the last five meetings including a 27-20 victory in Week 5 at Lambeau Field as 3-point underdogs. Have intercepted Brett Favre 11 times in their last five meetings.

Total (39): Over is 4-0 in Packers’ last four road games and 5-0 in their last five games overall.

Houston at Indianapolis (-7)

Why Texans cover: Are 3-0 ATS with Sage Rosenfels as the starting quarterback. Colts could end up resting starters for part of the game.

Why Colts cover: Won nine of last 10 meetings. Are holding opponents to 4.47 yards per offensive play, best in the league. Peyton Manning has thrown 12 touchdowns and only one interception in his last five games against Houston. Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Total (44 ½): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.

Kansas City at Detroit (-4 ½)

Why Chiefs cover: Won last four meetings. Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Jon Kitna has thrown 11 interceptions during Detroit’s current six-game losing streak. There is a chance Larry Johnson could play this week. Detroit has allowed the most first downs in the NFL.

Why Lions cover: Home team has won three of last four meetings. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. Are averaging 22 points per game to the Chiefs’ 14.

Total (43): Over is 5-1 in Chiefs’ last six vs. a team with a losing record, and 4-0 in Lions’ last four games overall.

N.Y. Giants at Buffalo (+3)

Why Giants cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Can clinch a playoff birth with win or tie. Bills have one of the worst offenses in the league.

Why Bills cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Won five of last seven meetings. Averaging 131.5 yards rushing in their last four games. New York is only averaging 16 points per game in their last five.

Total (32 ½): Under is 6-0 in Giants’ last six road games and 4-1 in Giants’ last five games overall.

Oakland at Jacksonville (-13)

Why Raiders cover: Have covered in three of last four games. Have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns this season.

Why Jaguars cover: Won last two meetings. Are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Can clinch a playoff birth with win or tie. Fred Taylor has rushed for 572 yards and three TDs in his last five games. Raiders lost offensive leader Justin Fargas for the season with a sprained MCL.

Total: (38 ½): Over is 7-0-1 in Jaguars’ last eight games and 4-1 in Raiders’ last five games.

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3)

Why Eagles cover: Won seven of last nine meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Saints. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Have picked off Drew Brees four times in their last two meetings.

Why Saints cover: Still fighting to make the playoffs. Brees has been on fire with 1,082 yards passing and 10 touchdowns in his last four games. Reggie Bush could return from a knee injury. Aaron Stecker has totaled 248 yards and two TDs in two games while filling in for Bush.

Total (47): Over is 4-0 in Saints’ last four home games.

Atlanta at Arizona (-10 ½)

Why Falcons cover: Won four straight meetings. Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NFC. Arizona has allowed 35 touchdowns this season.

Why Cardinals cover: Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games and have been outscored 161-53 during that time. Atlanta could be without starting DE John Abraham who suffered knee injury on Sunday.

Total (43 ½): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (+6)

Why Buccaneers cover: Are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Jeff Garcia gets to face the team that released him in 2004. Earnest Graham has scored a TD in six straight games.

Why 49ers cover: Shaun Hill has a 98.6 quarterback rating since taking over as the starter. Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and has won eight of the last 10. Niners have won last five meetings in San Francisco.

Total (37): Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

Baltimore at Seattle (-10)

Why Ravens cover: Have won last three meetings. Willis McGahee ran for 116 yards and four TDs in his only career game against Seattle.

Why Seahawks cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 333 yards and five TDs in their last meeting. Ravens QB Kyle Boller is day-to-day with a concussion. Ray Lewis will play with a dislocated finger. Ravens are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games.

Total (38): Over is 5-0 in Ravens’ last five games.

N.Y. Jets at Tennessee (-9)

Why Jets cover: Won last three meetings. Have covered in four of last six games. Chad Pennington could return as the starting quarterback if Kellen Clemens can’t go. Vince Young has thrown 10 interceptions in his last seven games.

Why Titans cover: Have AFC’s fourth-best rush defense. Need to win to stay in the playoff race. League’s fourth-best rush offense gets to face the NFL’s 30th-ranked rush defense.

Total (37): Over is 4-1-1 in Titans’ last six games.

Miami at New England (-21 ½)

Why Dolphins cover: Coming off first win of the season. New England has failed to cover in three games this season with spreads bigger than 19 points. Pats have only covered twice in last six games after covering 11 straight times going back to last season. With nothing left to gain, Patriots could rest their regulars in the second half.

Why Patriots cover: Are still looking to become second team to go undefeated in a season. Tom Brady and Randy Moss are still looking to set NFL records. Home team is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in New England.

Total (45): Over is 8-2 in Patriots’ last 10 home games and 4-1 in Dolphins’ last five vs. AFC East.

Washington at Minnesota (-6 ½)

Why Redskins cover: After losing four straight, have won two consecutive games covering both times. Need to win to stay in the playoff race. Holding opponents to 15.5 points in their last four games.

Why Vikings cover: Won three of last four meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Saints loss or tie. Washington is dealing with multiple injuries in many key areas. Holding opponents to 67.6 rushing yards per game.

Total (41): Over is 5-1 in Vikings’ last six home games.

Denver at San Diego (-9)

Why Broncos cover: With both Javon Walker and Brandon Stokley hurting, Brandon Marshall has stepped up his play and has 21 catches, 222 yards receiving and two TDs in his last two games. Jay Cutler has five TDs and zero interceptions in his last two games.

Why Chargers cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. LaDainian Tomlinson has scored 10 touchdowns in his last five games against Denver. Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Have picked off opposing quarterbacks 27 times this season.

Total (47): Over is 5-1 in Broncos’ last six road games.

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**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 05:14 AM

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 20

Game 303-304: Navy vs. Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 82.940; Utah 92.340
Dunkel Line: Utah by 9 1/2; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah by 8; 66
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-8); Under

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21

Game 305-306: Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 74.549; Memphis 75.987
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 1 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 3; 67
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3); Over

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 309-310: Southern Mississippi at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 82.077; Cincinnati 97.871
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 16; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 11; 56
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-11); Under

Game 311-312: Nevada vs. New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 86.090; New Mexico 86.684
Dunkel Line: Even; 58
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 3 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+3 1/2); Under

Game 313-314: UCLA vs. BYU
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 95.600; BYU 98.610
Dunkel Line: BYU by 3; 50
Vegas Line: BYU by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+7); Over

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 341-342: East Carolina vs. Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 84.667; Boise State 99.423
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 15; 64
Vegas Line: Boise State by 10 1/2; 72
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-10 1/2); Under

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26

Game 401-402: Central Michigan vs. Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 81.392; Purdue 85.522
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 4; 75
Vegas Line: Purdue by 9; 72
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+9); Over

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27

Game 403-404: Texas vs. Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 96.683; Arizona State 99.483
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 3; 68
Vegas Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+2 1/2); Over

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

Game 405-406: Michigan State vs. Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 99.341; Boston College 97.258
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 2; 60
Vegas Line: Boston College by 3 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+3 1/2); Over

Game 407-408: TCU vs. Houston
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 95.433; Houston 83.788
Dunkel Line: TCU by 11 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: TCU by 3 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-3 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Maryland vs. Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 97.194; Oregon State 98.854
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 4 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+4 1/2); Under

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29

Game 413-414: Connecticut vs. Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 95.073; Wake Forest 93.060
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 2; 51
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 3 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3 1/2); Over

Game 415-416: Central Florida vs. Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 87.201; Mississippi State 90.690
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 3 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 3; 60
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+3); Under

Game 417-418: Penn State vs. Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 97.908; Texas A&M 96.335
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Penn State by 6; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+6); Under

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 30

Game 449-450: Colorado vs. Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 93.541; Alabama 93.507
Dunkel Line: Even; 56
Vegas Line: Alabama by 4; 51
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+4); Over

MONDAY, DECEMBER 31

Game 451-452: Air Force vs. California
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 95.982; California 95.318
Dunkel Line: Even; 52
Vegas Line: California by 4; 54
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+4); Under

Game 453-454: Oregon vs. South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 95.990; South Florida 97.318
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 1 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: South Florida by 7; 52
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+7); Over

Game 455-456: Fresno State vs. Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 88.248; Georgia Tech 90.721
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 2 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 4 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+4 1/2); Under

Game 457-458: Florida State vs. Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 94.005; Kentucky 96.901
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 3; 52
Vegas Line: Pick; 56
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky; Under

Game 459-460: Indiana vs. Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 85.280; Oklahoma State 97.061
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 12; 60
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 4; 69
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-4); Under

Game 461-462: Auburn vs. Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 95.786; Clemson 99.817
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 4; 52 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 1 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-1 1/2); Over

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

Game 463-464: Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 98.299; Tennessee 97.478
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 1; 62
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+4); Over

Game 465-466: Arkansas vs. Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 101.992; Missouri 104.454
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 2 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Missouri by 3 1/2; 69 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+3 1/2); Over

Game 467-468: Michigan vs. Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 95.120; Florida 107.493
Dunkel Line: Florida by 12 1/2; 67
Vegas Line: Florida by 9 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-9 1/2); Over

Game 469-470: Texas Tech vs. Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 97.229; Virginia 94.831
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 2 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 5 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+5 1/2); Under

Game 471-472: Illinois vs. USC
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 95.302; USC 105.428
Dunkel Line: USC by 10; 46
Vegas Line: USC by 13 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+13 1/2); Under

Game 473-474: Hawaii vs. Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 99.289; Georgia 103.503
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 4; 64
Vegas Line: Georgia by 9; 69
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+9); Under

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2

Game 475-476: West Virginia at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 107.094; Oklahoma 109.453
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 2 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 7; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+7); Under

THURSDAY, JANUARY 3

Game 477-478: Kansas vs. Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 108.046; Virginia Tech 108.374
Dunkel Line: Even; 57
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+3 1/2); Over

SATURDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 483-484: Ball State vs. Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 83.401; Rutgers 91.494
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 8; 55
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 10; 60
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+10); Under

SUNDAY, JANUARY 6

Game 489-490: Bowling Green vs. Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 83.544; Tulsa 84.741
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 1; 69
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 5; 76
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+5); Under

MONDAY, JANUARY 7

Game 491-492: Ohio State vs. LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 109.014; LSU 112.040
Dunkel Line: LSU by 3; 54
Vegas Line: LSU by 6; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+6); Over

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**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 05:15 AM

College Football – Long Sheet

NCAAF
Long Sheet

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Thursday, December 20
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NAVY (8 - 4) vs. UTAH (8 - 4) - 12/20/2007, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
UTAH is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NAVY is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) against Mountain West conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
NAVY is 48-19 ATS (+27.1 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
NAVY is 51-21 ATS (+27.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 97-67 ATS (+23.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 97-67 ATS (+23.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 63-38 ATS (+21.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, December 21
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FLA ATLANTIC (7 - 5) vs. MEMPHIS (7 - 5) - 12/21/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 22
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SOUTHERN MISS (7 - 5) vs. CINCINNATI (9 - 3) - 12/22/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SOUTHERN MISS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEVADA (6 - 6) at NEW MEXICO (8 - 4) - 12/22/2007, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UCLA (6 - 6) vs. BYU (10 - 2) - 12/22/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
UCLA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 1-0 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 1-0 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, December 23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E CAROLINA (7 - 5) vs. BOISE ST (10 - 2) - 12/23/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 49-19 ATS (+28.1 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
BOISE ST is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 71-42 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 71-42 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 55-32 ATS (+19.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
E CAROLINA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, December 26
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C MICHIGAN (8 - 5) vs. PURDUE (7 - 5) - 12/26/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 1-0 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
PURDUE is 1-0 straight up against C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Thursday, December 27
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS (9 - 3) vs. ARIZONA ST (10 - 2) - 12/27/2007, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, December 28
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN ST (7 - 5) vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (10 - 3) - 12/28/2007, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TCU (7 - 5) vs. HOUSTON (8 - 4) - 12/28/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MARYLAND (6 - 6) vs. OREGON ST (8 - 4) - 12/28/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
OREGON ST is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, December 29
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONNECTICUT (9 - 3) vs. WAKE FOREST (8 - 4) - 12/29/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CONNECTICUT is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
WAKE FOREST is 1-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UCF (10 - 3) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST (7 - 5) - 12/29/2007, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PENN ST (8 - 4) vs. TEXAS A&M (7 - 5) - 12/29/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, December 30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (6 - 6) vs. ALABAMA (6 - 6) - 12/30/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
ALABAMA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, December 31, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AIR FORCE (9 - 3) vs. CALIFORNIA (6 - 6) - 12/31/2007, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
AIR FORCE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
AIR FORCE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CALIFORNIA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
CALIFORNIA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CALIFORNIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OREGON (8 - 4) vs. S FLORIDA (9 - 3) - 12/31/2007, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FRESNO ST (8 - 4) vs. GEORGIA TECH (7 - 5) - 12/31/2007, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA ST (7 - 5) vs. KENTUCKY (7 - 5) - 12/31/2007, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (7 - 5) vs. OKLAHOMA ST (6 - 6) - 12/31/2007, 5:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AUBURN (8 - 4) vs. CLEMSON (9 - 3) - 12/31/2007, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WISCONSIN (9 - 3) vs. TENNESSEE (9 - 4) - 1/1/2008, 11:00 AM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS (8 - 4) vs. MISSOURI (11 - 2) - 1/1/2008, 11:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN (8 - 4) vs. FLORIDA (9 - 3) - 1/1/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS TECH (8 - 4) vs. VIRGINIA (9 - 3) - 1/1/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ILLINOIS (9 - 3) vs. USC (10 - 2) - 1/1/2008, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAWAII (12 - 0) vs. GEORGIA (10 - 2) - 1/1/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
GEORGIA is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, January 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

W VIRGINIA (10 - 2) vs. OKLAHOMA (11 - 2) - 1/2/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, January 3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS (11 - 1) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (11 - 2) - 1/3/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 46-75 ATS (-36.5 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
KANSAS is 25-48 ATS (-27.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
KANSAS is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 32-9 ATS (+22.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
KANSAS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
KANSAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, January 5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALL ST (7 - 5) vs. RUTGERS (7 - 5) - 1/5/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, January 6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOWLING GREEN (8 - 4) vs. TULSA (9 - 4) - 1/6/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, January 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OHIO ST (11 - 1) vs. LSU (11 - 2) - 1/7/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 05:17 AM

College Football – Short Sheet

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Thursday, December 20th

SDC Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, California
TV: ESPN
Navy vs. Utah, 9:00 ET

Navy:
6-1 Over off a conference game
9-2 Over after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games

Utah:
10-2 ATS off 3+ conference games
23-9 ATS playing with rest

Friday, December 21st

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: ESPN2
Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis, 8:00 ET

Florida Atlantic:
6-1 Over off an Over
6-0 Over in the second half of the season

Memphis:
3-12 ATS off BB conference wins
2-14 ATS after scoring 42+ points

Saturday, December 22nd

PapaJohns.com Bowl
Birmingham, Alabama
TV: ESPN2
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati, 1:00 ET

Southern Miss:
0-6 ATS as an underdog
6-16 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss

Cincinnati:
12-2 ATS off an ATS win
5-1 ATS off a win by 21+ points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, New Mexico
TV: ESPN
Nevada vs. New Mexico, 4:30 ET

Nevada:
7-0 Under away after scoring 42+ points
9-1 Under away off 3+ conference games

New Mexico:
0-9 ATS after allowing 6 or less points
1-8 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: ESPN
UCLA vs. BYU, 8:00 ET

UCLA:
9-1 ATS as an underdog
8-1 ATS off a conference loss

BYU:
10-2 Under playing on a neutral field
29-14 Under as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

Sunday, December 23rd

Sheriton Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu, Hawaii
TV: ESPN
East Carolina vs. Boise State, 8:00 ET

East Carolina:
14-4 Under after winning 3 of their last 4 games
12-5 Under off BB conference games

Boise State:
41-12 ATS off BB conference games
18-3 ATS with a total of 63+ points

Wednesday, December 26th

Motor City Bowl
Detroit, Michigan
TV: ESPN
Central Michigan vs. Purdue, 7:30 ET

Central Michigan:
14-5 ATS playing on artificial turf
10-2 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games

Purdue:
9-0 Under off BB losses
16-6 Under off a conference game

Thursday, December 27th

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
San Diego, California
TV: ESPN
Texas vs. Arizona State, 8:00 ET

Texas:
13-3 ATS off 3+ Overs
10-2 ATS after allowing 525+ total yards

Arizona State:
11-2 Under away off a home game
12-4 Under away off a conference game

Friday, December 28th

Champs Sports Bowl
Orlando, Florida
TV: ESPN
Michigan State vs. Boston College, 5:00 ET

Michigan State:
6-16 ATS off a conference game
6-16 ATS off BB games with combined scores of 60+ points

Boston College:
12-4 Under playing on grass fields
21-9 Under away off an ATS loss

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Texas Bowl
Houston, Texas
TV: NFL
TCU vs. Houston, 8:00 ET

TCU:
10-1 ATS off BB conference wins
16-5 ATS after having 275+ rushing yards

Houston:
6-0 Under off an ATS loss
6-0 Under away off a combined score of 60+ points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Emerald Bowl
San Francisco, California
TV: ESPN
Maryland vs. Oregon State, 8:30 ET

Maryland:
17-3 Under after scoring 37+ points
14-4 Under after committing 0 turnovers

Oregon State:
10-2 ATS off a conference win by 7 or less points
12-3 ATS off BB conference games

Saturday, December 29th

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: ESPN
Connecticut vs. Wake Forest, 1:00 ET

Connecticut:
8-1 ATS off a road loss
21-8 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents

Wake Forest:
16-6 Under vs. non-conference opponents
8-2 Under off BB games forcing 3+ turnovers

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, Tennessee
TV: ESPN
Central Florida vs. Mississippi State, 4:30 ET

Central Florida:
6-1 Under off a conference win
7-0 Under after allowing 325+ passing yards

Mississippi State:
16-30 ATS off an Under
1-5 ATS off a home win

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, Texas
TV: ESPN
Penn State vs. Texas A&M, 8:00 ET

Penn State:
16-5 Under away vs. non-conference opponents
22-9 Under off a combined score of 60+ points

Texas A&M:
1-12 ATS after gaining 525+ total yards
4-14 ATS away playing with rest

Sunday, December 30th

PetroSun Indepedence Bowl
Shreveport, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
Colorado vs. Alabama, 8:00 ET

Colorado:
10-1 Over after scoring 50+ points
6-0 Over after allowing 325+ passing yards

Alabama:
3-11 ATS as a favorite
0-6 ATS off BB losses

Monday, December 31st

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, Texas
TV: ESPN
Air Force at California, 12:30 ET

Air Force:
7-1 ATS off a straight up win
13-3 ATS away playing with 2+ weeks rest

California:
0-7 ATS off BB conference games
2-10 ATS off a straight up loss

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brut Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas
TV: CBS
Oregon vs. South Florida, 2:00 ET

Oregon:
16-6 ATS off a home loss
9-2 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

South Florida:
9-2 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games
5-1 Under off BB conference wins

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl
El Paso, Texas
TV: ESPN2
Fresno State vs. Georgia Tech, 2:00 ET

Fresno State:
20-8 Over playing on artificial turf
22-10 Over off an Under

Georgia Tech:
1-9 ATS off BB Overs
1-5 ATS off a home game

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Nashville, Tennessee
TV: ESPN
Florida State vs. Kentucky, 4:00 ET

Florida State:
6-1 ATS after allowing 37+ points
5-1 ATS off 3+ games forcing 1 or 0 turnovers

Kentucky:
11-3 Under playing with 2+ weeks rest
12-2 Under off BB conference losses

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Insight Bowl
Tempe, Arizona
TV: NFL
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State, 5:30 ET

Indiana:
4-15 ATS off 5+ games committing 2+ turnovers
1-5 ATS off a home win by 3 or less points

Oklahoma State:
13-3 Over off an ATS loss
5-1 Over off BB road games

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN
(TC) Auburn vs. Clemson, 7:30 ET

Auburn:
6-1 ATS as an underdog
5-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Clemson:
9-2 Under in bowl games
16-6 Under after winning 4 of their last 5 games

Tuesday, January 1st

Outback Bowl
Tampa, Florida
TV: ESPN
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee, 11:00am ET

Wisconsin:
10-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
39-22 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

Tennessee:
5-1 Under off BB games with 40+ pass attempts
8-3 Under off 3+ conference games

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AT&T Cotton Bowl
Dallas, Texas
TV: FOX
Arkansas vs. Missouri, 11:30am ET

Arkansas:
7-1 ATS off BB games allowing 31+ points
15-4 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points

Missouri:
24-7 Over after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
7-3 Over off a loss by 21+ points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Capital One Bowl
Orlando, Florida
TV: ABC
Michigan vs. Florida, 1:00 ET

Michigan:
0-5 ATS after having 100 or less rushing yards
3-7 ATS off a straight up loss

Florida:
9-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
6-1 ATS off an ATS win as a favorite of 10+ points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Florida
TV: CBS
Texas Tech vs. Virginia, 1:00 ET

Texas Tech:
0-8 ATS away off a conference win
0-7 ATS away off an ATS win

Virginia:
10-2 Under off a straight up loss
8-1 Under after having 100 or less rushing yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Pasadena, California
TV: ABC
Illinois vs. USC, 4:30 ET

Illinois:
7-1 ATS off a straight up win
10-2 ATS away after scoring 37+ points

USC:
9-2 Under as a favorite
7-1 Under off a conference game

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: FOX
Hawaii vs. Georgia, 8:30 ET

Hawaii:
7-1 Under off 7+ wins
6-1 Under playing on artificial turf

Georgia:
17-5 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents
21-9 ATS away off an Under

Wednesday, January 2nd

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Arizona
TV: FOX
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma, 8:00 ET

West Virginia:
8-1 ATS away off an ATS loss
6-0 ATS off BB games having 125 or less passing yards

Oklahoma:
8-1 Under away off 3+ conference games
14-4 Under as a neutral field favorite

Thursday, January 3rd

FedEx Orand Bowl
Miami, Florida
TV: FOX
Kansas vs. Virginia Tech, 8:00 ET

Kansas:
3-12 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
25-48 ATS off a conference loss

Virginia Tech:
7-1 ATS off a conference game
15-5 ATS in the second half of the season

Saturday, January 5th

International Bowl
Toronto, Canada
TV: ESPN2
Ball State vs. Rutgers, 12:00 ET

Ball State:
9-1 ATS off an ATS loss
6-1 ATS off a win by 6 or less points

Rutgers:
10-4 Over off BB conference games
4-1 Over playing with 2+ days rest

Sunday, January 6th

GMAC Bowl
Mobile, Alabama
TV: ESPN
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa, 8:00 ET

Bowling Green:
19-8 ATS off a home win by 17+ points
16-6 ATS after allowing 3 or less first-half points

Tulsa:
0-6 ATS after allowing 37+ points
0-8 ATS after having 475+ total yards

Monday, January 7th

BCS Championship Game
New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: FOX
Ohio State vs. LSU, 8:00 ET

Ohio State:
12-1 ATS off an Under
10-2 ATS off a road game

LSU:
1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
1-5 ATS off an ATS loss

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 05:18 AM

College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up

2007-2008 Bowl Analysis

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 20

#1-- Poinsettia Bowl, 12/20, San Diego
Navy won its last four games, scoring 43.3 ppg, but since lost coach Johnson, who went to Ga Tech; this is fifth straight bowl for defensively-challenged Middie squad that lost to Delaware, a I-AA team, and gave up 62 at North Texas in 74-62 win. They threw total of of 26 passes in their last four games- in their four losses, they gave up 41-34-44-59 points. This game is only 19 days after they won their biggest game, against Army. Middies won Poinsettia bowl two years ago, beating Colorado St 51-30.

Utah won its last five bowls, winning last four years by scores of 17-0/35-7/38-10/25-13; they won seven of last eight games; in finale, rivalry game at BYU, they blew 10-6 lead in last minute to snap win streak. Utes were held to 7-12-0-10 points in its losses; Navy is incapable of holding them down like that. Utah, in their last four games, outscored foes 74-6 in first half- they won pair of games on this field in last few years, beating San Diego State by 51-28/38-7 scores in regular season meetings.

Not big on giving points in bowls, but with Johnson leaving, it is difficult to support unbalanced Middies here. Utah has one of best bowl records in country-- would lean to them in this game.

Friday, December 21

#2-- New Orleans Bowl, 12/21
Florida Atlantic is in its first-ever bowl, under former Louisville/ Miami coach Schnellenberger; he was 4-0 in bowls as coach at those schools, beating Alabama (34-7), Michigan State (18-7) at Louisville, after beating Virginia Tech (20-10), Nebraska (31-30) with the 'canes. The man can coach.

FAU is 6-0 this season when they allow less than 33 points and 3-2-1 vs spread as favorite; they scored 93 points in winning its last two games, after 59-20 loss at Florida left them at 5-5. Their last seven games went over the total. They had 18 starters back from LY, are fairly experienced group.

Memphis is playing 4th bowl in last five years, missing out last year; favorite covered their last three bowls, with Tigers taking two of three. They won this game four years ago, 27-17 against Sun Belt champ North Texas. Tigers won three in row, five of its last six games after 2-4 start- they lost first two games of season by combined total of six points; they're 4-2-1 vs spread as dog this season.

New Orleans Bowl has seen C-USA team win four of six vs Sun Belt foe, with Troy State winning LY vs Rice, only second win for SBC. Of last six Memphis wins, they won five by three or less points, so they know how to make plays in these big spots. This should be a good game, but damned if I know which side is right. Game is in dome, so take a shot at the over?

Saturday, December 22

#3- PapaJohn's Bowl, Birmingham, 12/22
Southern Mississippi fired coach Bower despite 14 winning yrs in a row, and nine bowls in last ten years. USM won three bowls in row, 31-10 (-6), 31-19 (-15), 28-7 (-6), but hard to back them in choatic situation, where new coach has already been hired, but not soon enough that he can out his offense into place. Eagles are 1-4 this season against bowl teams, beating East Carolina- despite a mediocre 7-5 season, they were only underdog twice, losing 39-19 at Tennessee (+12), 38-16 at Boise (+10).

Cincinnati is 4-1 vs bowl teams this season, losing only to West Virginia, beating UConn, South Florida, Oregon State, Rutgers. UC is 5-2 vs spread as a favorite, but they also allowed 23+ pts in six of their last seven games, so not a great defensive team. Bearcat coach Kelly is trying to get Michigan job; last year, he won two bowl games, winning with Bearcats, Central Michigan.

These teams used to be rivals in C-USA, before basketball put Cincinnati in Big East; last time they met was three years ago, but neither of these coaches was there then. Visiting side won last two series games. USM has something of regional edge, as game is in Alabama, but Cincinnati has all other intangibles on its side. Would be difficult to back Southern Miss in this game.

#4-- New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, 12/22
New Mexico's leading rusher was declared academically out for this game on Tuesday.
Nevada split one-point bowl decisions the last two years; going back to their last five bowls, games were decided by total of just nine points. Wolf Pack had only five starters back on offense in '07; emergence of mobile freshman QB Kaepernick, Wolf Pack ran ball for 211+ yards in six of last eight games, winning five of last seven after tough 69-67 OT loss on blue carpet at Boise St. Nevada covered three of four as dog this year, after being 4-11 in last three seasons. Five of last seven Nevada tilts were won by three or less points, so they've been in tough spots, going
2-4 on road (winning 31-28 at Utah St, 40-38 at N. Mexico State)

New Mexico had 18 starters back this year; this is fifth bowl in last six years for Lobos, but they lost previous four (20-12/34-19 55-14/27-13) despite being favored in two of them. They lost this game to San Jose State LY (-3). Lobos covered three of last ten as home favorite. Lobos were 1-2 vs bowl teams this year, losing to BYU (31-24), Utah (28-10), beating Air Force (34-31). In their last four games, New Mexico lost eight fumbles, were -6 in TOs, after being +6 in first eight games. They were held to 10 or less points in three of their four losses.

This is home game for Lobos, who last won bowl game back in 1961 (Aviation Bowl vs Western Michigan). Both teams start a very young QB, so the extra practices were valuable for getting ready for '08 season. Not sure why there even is a bowl game in New Mexico, other than to give ESPN another 4-hour block of programming. I have absolutely no opinion on this game.

#5-- Las Vegas Bowl, 12/22
UCLA beat BYU 27-17 on Sept 8 (-7.5), even though Bruins were outgained 435-236; they were 5-2 after upsetting Cal, then lost four of last five games, and Dorrell was fired, with only win vs Oregon squad that played three different QBs, trying to replace injured Dixon. Bruins lost three of last four bowls, despite being favored in all four games- they allowed 38,44 points in their last two bowls. UCLA lost in this bowl 24-21 to Wyoming in '04, but beat New Mexico here 27-13 in '02. Underdog covered nine of last 10 UCLA games, with Bruins 5-0 vs spread as underdog.

BYU started out 1-2, getting waxed 55-47 by Tulsa week after it lost to UCLA, but they haven't lost since, driving 83 yards for a winning TD to win rivalry tilt vs Utah 13-10 in last game. Hall passed for 391 yards in UCLA loss. BYU is so good, they went 10-2 with a -6 turnover ratio- doesn't happen often. They had six wins of 10+ points during win streak. Cougars are playing in this bowl for third straight year, normally a problem, but this is Las Vegas, America's favorite city, so no problem. BYU snapped its bowl losing streak by routing Oregon 38-8 LY; favorite is 4-1 vs spread in their last five bowl appearances.

With a late season collapse behind them, UCLA is a program in turmoil- there are rumors that alum Rick Neuheisel will be Bruins' next coach, but at this point, an interim coach is running things, rarely a good sign. BYU won its last nine games, gaining 417+ yards in each of their last five- they're 6-4 vs spread as favorite. We have a selection on this bowl in the box at bottom of page.

Sunday, December 23

#6-- Hawai'i Bowl, 12/23 Honolulu
East Carolina lost 24-7 to South Florida in Papajohn's Bowl LY, their first bowl since 2001; Pirates allowed 28+ points in eight of their 12 games, so they try to outscore people-- they are 4-2 vs spread as underdog this season. ECU used a +13 turnover ratio to forge its 7-5 record; they were 1-3 at one point, then 4-4, but won three of last four games to earn this spot. Pirates are 7-0 if they score more than 21 points, 0-5 when they didn't; in five of their seven wins, they allowed 31+ points, which makes them a great fit for the Hawai'i Bowl.

Boise State was 10-1 before coming to paradise and losing 39-27 to Hawai'i Warriors (+3); no Colt Brennan on other side for this game, though. Boise covered six of its last eight games as fave; they scored 34+ points in eight of their last nine games. Broncos are 3-2 in last five bowls, beating Oklahoma in one of greatest greatest finishes in college football history; underdog covered three of their last four bowls. Before losing to Hawai'i, Boise had outscored its last three foes 76-0 in second half of games, so the coaches make solid adjustments at halftime.

This game has traditionally been high scoring, with the winning side scoring 41+ points in last four years. ESPN.com's Pat Forde pointed out that while Boise State's Peterson was turning down jobs this month, East Carolina's Holtz was trying to get new job, rarely a good sign. Boise should handle this trip better, since they come to Hawai'i to play Rainbow Warriors in WAC play. It is usually a wise thing to look at the over in this game.

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**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 05:20 AM

College Football – Tips & Trends

NCAAF
Tips and Trends

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Tips and Trends
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(Note: Effective 12/18/07 additional info has been posted. If more data becomes available we will post it on subsequent updates)

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 20TH

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego, CA
Utah vs. Navy (ESPN | 9 PM ET)

Utah has won 6 straight bowl games, the second-longest postseason winning streak in the nation. The Utes have covered their last 5 postseason appearances. Navy owns the top-ranked rushing offense in the country and faces the top scoring defense in the Mountain West. However, Air Force rolled 334 yards on the ground against the Utes in a 20-12 win back on September 8th. The Midshipmen don't expect much of a change with assistant coach Ken Niumatalolo taking over for departed head coach Paul Johnson. "I don't care whose offense we call it," Niumatalolo said. "We're going to use it because it works. I've been involved with this offense for 20 years. I've called the plays for this offense before. I learned a lot from Paul about the various wrinkles and how to make adjustments."
Navy is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. Mountain West opponents.
The OVER is 8-2 in Navy’s last 10 neutral site games.
The OVER is 9-3 in Navy’s last 12 non-conference games.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21ST

R&L Carriers Bowl - New Orleans, LA
Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis (ESPN2 | 8 PM ET)

The Memphis Tigers won five of their last six games after the tragic shooting death of DL Taylor Bradford to finish 7-5. This is their fourth bowl game in five seasons. Memphis QB Martin Hankins returned in mid-October from a hip injury, and since then the team's offense has become one of Conference USA’s most potent. The Tigers averaged 34 points and 504 yards of total offense in the second half of the season. The concern for the Memphis Tigers is their defense. Memphis held only one opponent under 21 points this season and conceded 50-plus points to three C-USA opponents.
The Florida Atlantic Owls have also turned it around in the second half of the season. Florida Atlantic averaged 36 points per game in the second half, including a 38-point performance against Troy in the final game of the season. The Owls are led by QB Rusty Smith, who posted the best passing numbers in the Sun Belt. Linebacker Cergile Sincere spearheads the defense, which led the Sun Belt in turnover margin. Florida Atlantic has been hot on offense, but like Memphis has had trouble slowing its opponents down on defense. The Owls have been getting torched to the tone of 34 ppg and 417 yards per game by their opponents on the season. Memphis is 15-7 ATS in its last 14 games overall.
Florida Atlantic is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games.
The OVER is 7-0 in Florida Atlantic’s last 7 games overall.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22ND

PapaJohns.com Bowl - Birmingham, AL
#22 Cincinnati vs. Southern Miss (ESPN2 | 1 PM ET)

Tale of two coaches here as Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly is on the hot list for every major job in the country after turning the Bearcats into a Top 25 team while Southern Miss’ Jeff Bower resigned and will be coaching his last game for the Golden Eagles.
Cincinnati has covered only 1 of its last 5 bowl games.
Cincinnati is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games.

New Mexico Bowl - Albuquerque, NM
New Mexico vs. Nevada (ESPN | 4:30 PM ET)

This is essentially a home game for the Lobos, who were 5-1 SU in Albuquerque this year but only 2-3 ATS. In fact, New Mexico is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games.
Nevada freshman QB Colin Kaepernick was 4-3 as a starter this season, but 3 of those losses were decided by a combined 7 points. The Wolfpack covered 2 of those 3 losses but dropped 5 of 6 ATS overall to end the season.
Nevada is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games on grass.

Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl - Las Vegas, NV
BYU vs. UCLA (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

Second meeting between the teams after UCLA won 27-17 in Week 2. BYU has won 9 straight since then while the Bruins finished the season at 6-6 and fired head coach Karl Dorrell.
Mountain West teams have covered the last 6 Las Vegas Bowls, going 5-1 SU in those games. That suggests a big letdown for Pac-10 teams who were aiming for better bowls.
BYU is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 bowl games.
UCLA is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. Mountain West opponents.
The UNDER is 9-2 in UCLA’s last 11 games vs. Mountain West opponents.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23RD

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Honolulu, HI
East Carolina vs. #24 Boise State (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

East Carolina played only 2 ranked teams all season, losing to Virginia Tech and West Virginia by a combined score of 65-14.
The Broncos return to Hawaii for the second time in a month after losing to the Warriors 39-27 back on November 23rd.
We all know about Boise State’s offense, but the team's defense has improved to allow just 20 points per game this year. Boise did get lit up against Colt Brennan and the Hawaii Warriors, allowing 495 passing yards. However, that was the case for most of Hawaii's opponents this season. East Carolina runs a balanced attack on offense but does rely on the run with 171 rushing yards per game. The Broncos pride themselves with being a balanced attacking defense, and they are only allowing 3 yards per rush on the season.
The UNDER is 8-2 in Boise State’s last 10 non-conference games.
The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 Hawaii Bowls.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26TH

Motor City Bowl - Detroit, MI
Purdue vs. Central Michigan (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

Insiders believe this is a classic power conference vs. mid-major “mismatch” where the public will likely assume the bigger, more physical Boilermakers will push the Chippewas around. However, Purdue dropped 3 straight to close out the regular season following a 5-0 start and finished a disappointing 3-5 in Big Ten play. Central Michigan won 4 of 5 before winning the MAC title game.
Central Michigan is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs. Big Ten opponents.
Purdue is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. MAC opponents.
The OVER is 7-1-1 in Central Michigan’s last 9 non-conference games.
The OVER is 7-1 in Central Michigan’s last 8 games overall.
The OVER is 7-3-1 in Purdue’s last 11 non-conference games.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27TH

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - San Diego, CA
#19 Texas vs. #11 Arizona State (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

The Texas Longhorns were hoping for bigger and better things at the start of the season than the Holiday Bowl. Texas started the year 4-0 and then lost their National Championship hopes when dropping back-to-back games in the Big 12. Texas coach Mack Brown said: “We didn’t play to our standards. Our guys need a really good opponent to get up for.” His players have one now in Arizona State, but most of the senior players are not happy with the team's finish, including DT Frank Okam who said: “This (the Holiday Bowl) is not where we want to be.”
Arizona State finished the year 10-2 under first year coach Dennis Erickson, and those 10 victories are the most by the team since 1996. Being ranked No. 11 in the BCS and not getting to go to a BCS Bowl game is considered a bad break by most team insiders, but according to Coach Erickson: “They voted and I don’t agree, but it’s over and done.”
Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter looks to be poised to have a big game against this Texas defense. Carpenter has thrown for 7 touchdowns and just 1 interception over his last five games, and Texas allowed 276 passing yards per game on the season – one of the worst marks in the country.
The OVER is 8-2 in Texas’ last 10 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 10-3 in Texas’ last 13 non-conference games.
The UNDER is 12-2 in Arizona State’s last 15 games overall.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28TH

Champs Sports Bowl - Orlando, FL
#14 Boston College vs. Michigan State (ESPN | 5 PM ET)

Boston College is looking to extend the nation’s longest active winning steak in bowl games to 8. BC opened the season 8-0 and was ranked No. 2 in the BCS poll at one point, but the Eagles dropped to the Champs Sports bowl thanks to a loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. BC seniors have all said this year was a disappointment, including linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunba:r “We wanted the Orange Bowl, and that loss to Virginia Tech set this program and all of us back.”
Michigan State’s defense will have its hands full against Boston College. The Spartans have been lit up for an average of 394 total yards over their final 3 games of the season while also allowing 30 points per game. BC QB Matt Ryan is the ACC Player of the Year and racked up a total of 328 passing yards per game. Ryan and the Eagles offense are averaging 29 ppg on the season, totaling over 400 total yards per game in their final 3 games of the season.
Michigan State is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games on grass.
Boston College has covered 6 of its last 7 bowl games.
Boston College is 15-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The OVER is 7-2 in Boston College’s last 9 games as a favorite.

Texas Bowl - Houston, TX
TCU vs. Houston (NFL | 8 PM ET)

Houston will play its 4th bowl in 5 seasons, but the Cougars will do so without coach Art Briles, who resigned to go to Baylor. Though Briles is gone, RB Anthony Alridge and redshirt freshman QB Case Keenum will still be on the field. Thes dangerous duo has led this potent offense, which is ranked 4th nationally and averaging 36 points and 513 yards per game.
Even though TCU is playing in its 3rd straight bowl game and ninth in 10 seasons, the Horned Frogs had higher expectations for 2007 after finishing 11-2 in 2006 and starting this season ranked 22nd. TCU's offense has improved in the final month of the season, averaging 33 points in going 4-2 after scoring 21 per game during a 3-3 start.
TCU is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 vs. Conference USA.
The UNDER is 8-2 in TCU’s last 10 games as a favorite.

Emerald Bowl - San Francisco, CA
Maryland vs. Oregon State (ESPN | 8:30 PM ET)

Maryland has won its last 3 bowl games. The Terps have outscored opponents by a 95-17 margin during the winning streak, which includes a 24-7 victory over Purdue in the Champs Sports Bowl last December 29th.
Maryland is one of only four teams in the country with two running backs to each compile at least 750 rushing yards this season. Keon Lattimore totaled 789 with 13 touchdowns and Lance Ball had 763 with 12 TDs to help the Terps rank third in the ACC with 147 rushing yards per game. However, Oregon State allows just 75 rushing yards per game to rank second in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
Oregon State boasts one of the most potent running games in the country as well, averaging 167 rushing yards per game. Star RB Yvenson Bernard expects to be ready to play in this game, meaning the Beavers ground game will be at full strength for the first time in weeks.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29TH

Meineke Car Care Bowl - Charlotte, NC
Wake Forest vs. #25 Connecticut (ESPN | 1 PM ET)

UConn is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games on grass.
UConn is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 overall.
The UNDER is 11-4 in UConn’s last 15 non-conference games.
The OVER is 7-2 in Wake Forest’s last 9 games.

AutoZona Liberty Bowl - Memphis, TN
Central Florida vs. Mississippi State (ESPN | 4:30 PM ET)

The UNDER is 8-3 in Mississippi State’s last 11 vs. Conference USA.

Alamo Bowl - San Antonio, TX
Penn State vs. Texas A&M (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

The Big Ten is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 bowl appearances vs. Big 12 opponents.
Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 bowl games.
Penn State has failed to total more than 49 points with its last 6 bowl opponents.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 30TH

Petro Sun Independence Bowl - Shreveport, LA
Colorado vs. Alabama (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

Colorado's last 6 bowl appearances have all produced 54 points or more.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 31ST

Bell Helicoptor Armed Forces Bowl - Fort Worth, TX
Air Force vs. California (ESPN | 12:30 PM ET)

While Air Force has won six of its last seven games, the game they lost, 34-31 to New Mexico, was the only team of the bunch to finish the season with a winning record. Going back even farther, the last win Air Force had over a winning team was on September 13th, when they beat Texas Christian, 20-17.
Although the Bears have lost five of their last six games, it gives the team a chance to finish on an up note, and begin laying the foundation for next season. The game also marks a homecoming for the two Golden Bears from the Dallas area, Justin Forsett and Brock Mansion.
Motivation could again be a huge factor, as Cal lost $10 in slipping from Rose Bowl to Holiday Bowl and got blown out 45-31 by Texas Tech as an 11-point favorite back in 2004. )
Cal is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games on grass.
The OVER is 13-6 in Air Force’s last 19 games as an underdog.

Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX
South Florida vs. Oregon (CBS | 2 PM ET)

Oregon is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on turf.
South Florida is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.
The OVER is 7-3 in Oregon’s last 10 non-conference games.

Humanitarian Bowl - Boise, ID
Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State (ESPN2 | 2 PM ET)

Fresno State is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games overall.
The OVER is 10-4 in Fresno’s last 14 games as an underdog.
The OVER is 6-2 in Fresno’s last 8 games on turf.

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl - Nashville, TN
Kentucky vs. Florida State (ESPN | 4 PM ET)

Florida State has an undetermined number of players that are not expected to play in the Music City Bowl due to academic misconduct.

Chick-fil-A Bowl - Atlanta, GA
#23 Auburn vs. #15 Clemson (ESPN | 7:30 PM ET)

Auburn is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games overall.
Clemson is 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The UNDER is 15-5 in Auburn’s last 20 games as an underdog.
The UNDER is 11-5 in Clemson’s last 16 non-conference games.

Insight Bowl - Tempe, AZ
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State (NFL | TBA)

Indiana is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on grass.
The OVER is 16-7 in Indiana’s last 23 games as an underdog.
The OVER is 7-2 in Oklahoma State’s last 9 games as a favorite.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1ST

Outback Bowl - Tampa Bay, FL
#18 Wisconsin vs. #16 Tennessee (ESPN | 11 AM ET)

Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall.

AT&T Cotton Bowl - Dallas, TX
#6 Missouri vs. Arkansas (FOX | 11:30 AM ET)

Missouri is 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Missouri is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall.
The OVER is 8-2 in Arkansas’ last 10 non-conference games.
The OVER is 10-4 in Missouri’s last 14 games overall.

Gator Bowl - Jacksonville, FL
#20 Virginia vs. Texas Tech (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Virginia’s last 17 games overall.

Capital One Bowl - Orlando, FL
Michigan vs. #12 Florida (ABC | 1 PM ET)

The OVER is 8-1 in Michigan’s last 9 Bowl games.
The UNDER is 9-4 in Florida’s last 13 non-conference games.

Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA
#7 USC vs. #13 Illinois (ABC | 4:30 PM ET)

Insiders believe no team will benefit more from the extra time off than the Trojans, who were also beat up at the end of last season before beating Michigan 32-18 in the Rose Bowl. Injuries ultimately hurt USC’s shot at the national championship, as both of the team’s losses happened with backup QB Mark Sanchez under center. Many considered the Trojans the most dangerous team in the country at the end of the season with the early losses costing them a BCS spot.
Illinois is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games on grass.
Illinois is 10-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The UNDER is 10-1 in Illinois’ last 11 games on grass.
The UNDER is 16-5 in USC’s last 21 games overall.

Allstate Sugar Bowl - New Orleans, LA
#10 Hawaii vs. #5 Georgia (FOX | 8:30 PM ET)

Oddsmakers opened Hawaii at +8 in this game after Boise State’s stunning win over Oklahoma last year in the Fiesta Bowl, but the public quickly bet this number up to 11 points in favor of Georgia. Many still believe Hawaii’s schedule that produced an unbeaten season was too soft and lacked a legitimate power conference opponent like the Bulldogs.
Georgia likely won’t be overconfident in this game after underestimating West Virginia in the 2006 Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs were blown out by the Mountaineers in the first half before a furious rally came up short. They realize this is a statement game for them, which could lead to a preseason #1 ranking next year with an impressive victory.
Two very different offenses will take the field in New Orleans, as Georgia would love to control the clock with a power running game while Hawaii looks to light up the scoreboard with a pass-happy attack led by Heisman Trophy contender Colt Brennan. Some insiders think the Bulldogs will get a major test defensively since the closest thing to Hawaii’s offense in the SEC is Kentucky.
Hawaii is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games on turf.
Hawaii is 7-18 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The OVER is 23-9-1 in Hawaii’s last 33 games on turf.

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2ND

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Glendale, AZ
#4 Oklahoma vs. #9 West Virginia (FOX | 8 PM ET)

Oklahoma played in this game a year ago and saw an underrated Boise State team pull off a shocking upset. The Sooners have had to listen to how they “let themselves get beat” by the Broncos every day since then and just got done beating a Missouri team that said “they beat themselves” in the first meeting. Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops takes revenge very seriously, so you can bet he will have his team fired up for an explosive West Virginia team with a similar run-oriented attack as Boise.
West Virginia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on grass.
West Virginia is 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The OVER is 7-1 in Oklahoma’s last 8 non-conference games.
The UNDER is 6-1 in Oklahoma’s last 8 Bowl games.
The UNDER is 7-3 in West Virginia’s last 10 games overall.

THURSDAY, JANUARY 3RD

FedEx Orange Bowl - Miami, FL
#3 Virginia Tech vs. #8 Kansas (FOX | 8 PM ET)

Kansas is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall.
The OVER is 6-2 in Kansas’ last 8 games as an underdog.
The OVER is 14-6 in Kansas’ last 20 non-conference games.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 5TH

International Bowl - Toronto, ON
Rutgers vs. Ball State (ESPN2 | 12 PM ET)

Ball State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games overall.
Rutgers is 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 6TH

GMAC Bowl - Mobile, AL
Tulsa vs. Bowling Green (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

Tulsa is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall.
The UNDER is 9-4 in Bowling Green’s last 13 games on grass.
The OVER is 9-4 in Bowling Green’s last 13 non-conference games.

MONDAY, JANUARY 7TH

BCS National Championship - New Orleans, LA
#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Louisiana State (FOX | 8 PM ET)

Last year, the extended time off (51 days) between games really cooled off the previously unbeaten Buckeyes, and insiders feel that same problem will recur against the SEC’s best team. The Tigers have the most NFL talent on their roster and will be able to make good use of the break to heal their wounds, just like USC did in last year’s Rose Bowl. That’s bad news for the Buckeyes and could very well lead to another ugly title game.
Ohio State is 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Ohio State is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games overall.
LSU is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games on turf.
LSU is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
Underdog is 6-3 SU in BCS title games, winning 4 of last 5.

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**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 05:23 AM

National Basketball Association - Tips & Trends

NBA

Thursday, December 20

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Tips and Trends
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Thursday, December 20

New Jersey Nets at Miami Heat (7:30 PM ET)

Heat are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games.
The UNDER is 8-3 in New Jersey's last 11 road games.
The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Miami's last 22 vs. Atlantic Division.

Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers (TNT | 8 PM ET)

Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Pacific Division.
Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
The UNDER is 36-17-1 in LA's last 54 vs. Central Division.

Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets (TNT | 10:30 PM ET)

Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Southwest Division.
Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Northwest Division.
The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Houston's last 11 games.
The UNDER is 20-7 in Denver's last 27 vs. Southwest Division.

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**pm530** · 12-20-2007, 05:24 AM

National Basketball Association – Hot Lines

NBA
Hot Lines

Thursday, December 20

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Pick 'n' roll: Thursday's best NBA bets
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New Jersey Nets at Miami Heat (-2, 189)

What is the best way to snap a losing streak? Take a trip to South Beach.

Miami is 1-3 straight up (SU) and 0-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last four home tilts, including Monday’s ATS setback to last-place Minnesota.

Shaquille O’Neal scored 15 points against the Wolves. Shaq is averaging a career-low 14 points and has only managed more than 15 points once in his last 11 outings.

“When you win, it’s easier to accept,” O’Neal told reporters Tuesday. “You can’t say nothing. I have to adjust. We still have to adjust. Hopefully, it doesn't take a full season of failing for us to adjust.”

The Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Florida.

Pick: Nets

Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers (+1 1/2, 205)

Lakers scoring leader Kobe Bryant rescinded his trade request. LeBron James, on the other hand, may want to submit his.

Cleveland is a miserable 1-8 SU in its last 10 and is 3-7 ATS in that stretch. It has also failed to cover the spread in three of its last four in Ohio.

“We’re not playing very good basketball,” James told reporters. “Right now, we’re not a very good team.”

L.A., meanwhile, has won six of its last seven and is 6-1 ATS in that span. The Lakers are 4-0 in their last four outside La La Land.

Pick: Lakers

Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets (off)

Denver is 4-2 in its last six in the Mile High City.

The high-scoring Nuggets should have no problem outlasting struggling Houston. The Rockets are averaging less than 83 points in their last four contests. Denver, fourth in the league in scoring, is notching 106 points per game.

Rockets star Tracy McGrady missed Monday’s practice with a bruised knee. McGrady, listed as probable, is averaging a mere 18 points in his last three contests.

Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five road outings.

Pick: Nuggets

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Thursday Trends and Indexes 12/20

Thursday Trends and Indexes 12/20

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