Sunday Trends and Indexes 12/16

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, December 16

Good Luck on day #350 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

FOOTBALL:
We are providing football trends & indexes that are available through the Bowl games.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Sunday

NFL information for Sunday's games.

-- Because of bad weather, the total in Jet-Patriot game that was listed at 52 to open week, was 41 late Saturday.

-- Crowd for Chiefs' last home game was the smallest crowd at Arrowhead in last six seasons, not a good sign.

-- Derek Anderson is 5-0 vs spread as starting QB at home.

-- Baltimore is -17 in turnovers; they were +14 last season.

-- Lions covered two of their last eight games on grass.

-- Cardinals are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine road games.

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[pm530]

Six-packs

(Two earlier “Six-packs” are repeated here.)

NFL trends for Week 15's games........

-- Ravens failed to cover last seven tries as road favorite.

-- Carolina is 3-12-1 vs spread in last sixteen home games.

-- Arizona is 10-2-1 vs spread in last 13 tries as underdog.

-- Bengals covered eight of last eleven as road favorite.

-- Browns covered 12 of last 15 as a favorite.

-- Colts covered eight of last 12 as double digit favorite.

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NFL trends to think about as Week 15 rolls around

-- Steelers covered eight of their last eleven home games.

-- Patriots covered 41 of last 60 as a favorite.

-- Packers are 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten games as favorite.

-- Bills covered four of last 13 non-division road games.

-- Raiders covered two of last eight as double digit dog.

-- Eagles covered four of last five division road games.

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[pm530]

Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) UAB's Robert Vaden, who came to UAB from Indiana as a transfer with coach Davis, scored 28 second half points, as the Blazers rallied from a 14-point deficit to beat Kentucky in a game played at Freedom Hall in Louisville.

12) Not a Merry Christmas for Billy Gillispie, whose Wildcats just aren't very good. The Kentucky-Louisville game should be a miseryfest, with Pitino's Cardinals having obvious issues chemistry-wise.

11) If I'm A's manager Bob Geren, I'm asking my friend Billy Beane, the A's GM, to extend my contract, because sure as hell Geren is going to be sub-.500 for next couple of seasons with Dan Haren being traded. Would also expect Blanton and Street to get traded before New Year's, to complete the purge.

10) All this because Crosby, Chavez and Kotsay are fragile; the team won't be able to compete this year, so they have to purge salary, build a team that will be good when the ballpark in Fremont opens in 2011 or so. At least thats the plan.

9) Feel bad for NW Missouri's football team; they got to D-II title game three years in row, lost all three times, but what an accomplishment to get to finals three years in a row.

9) One sign that once you get below I-AA football, it isn't so bigtime; an assistant coach in D-II game had a Nike hat on, with an Adidas jacket. You'd never, ever see that in bigtime ball; then again, the coach probably bought both items- that wouldn't be happening in D-I, either.

8) Why did U of Denver hire hoop coach who runs Princeton offense? It is boring to watch-- they trailed 26-10 Saturday at freakin' halftime!!!! They scored 10 points the whole first half. Playing in altitude, would think you'd want a fast-paced team.

7) This Shaun Hill has been in NFL for six years and made his first start Saturday night, and he played very well. Once again the best way to develop QBs is to have them sit, watch, learn; not for six years, but it is clear that this method works. Now if coaches had enough job security to implement such a plan, we'd probably be seeing it more.

6) Tennessee-Western Kentucky game was very high level contest. Hilltoppers will beat someone they're not supposed to in March-- you heard that here first.

5) We're used to seeing Pitt Panthers as muscle team that isn't as skilled as some of their Big East foes, but these Panthers can and will run very well. Jamie Dixon is underrated coach.

4) Purdue has four freshman and a sophomore in its top six guys; they're pretty good. Would expect Boilers to finish in top four of Big 11, and once again make noise in March.

3) Saw something I don't think I've ever seen before at NBA or college level Saturday night; South Alabama trailed 32-30 at halftime, and only two of their players scored-- one kid had 25, one of the big kids had the other five. The other three kids played so badly (0 for 13 from floor, I think they said) it was hard to believe they were only down by a hoop.

2) You watch the Nets play, and you just get feeling there is going to be a big trade later this winter, and Jason Kidd will be a part of it. Don't think Vince Carter is that marketable and if they're smart, they'll want to keep Richard Jefferson.

1) This NFL Network thing bothers me; there are no angels in this dispute. The NFL is arrogant enough to believe nitwits like myself will get a satellite dish just to watch their games, while cable gurus don't want to pay full-time cash for product that is popular less than half the year. I think the NFL has to eventually give in on this, but I have absolutely no business sense, so what do I know?

I do know this; I can't watch stuff I'm willing to pay extra for, because billionaires can't figure out how to slice up a very big pie full of cash. They're hurting their own businesses.

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[pm530]

(Yesterday’s “List of 13” is repeated here.)

List of 13: Things to look for in NFL's Week 15

Things I'll be following for each game on Sunday in the NFL:

13) Cardinals-Saints - Winner stays alive in NFC Wild Card race; Arizona will score a lot of they don't turn the ball over. Saints are on short week, have a new kicker (Gramatica).

12) Falcons-Bucs - Atlanta on road after Monday night game when its coach quit on Tuesday; QB is only there because he played for the departed coach in college. Good luck against Tampa team that needs the win, and plays better at home.

11) Jets- Petriots - Best hitting in this game will be jockeying by photographers to get shot of post-game "handshake". Jets will play with desperation, in fear of being humiliated, but at 3-10, can it be prevented? Horrible weather is expected to further confuse the situation.

10) Packers-Rams - Not sure why Rams throwing Bulger into fray when he has concussion issues; why? I'm not anxious to see Favre's offense run up, down field against Rams; Pack is still playing for #2 seed and the critical first-round bye.

9) Seahawks-Panthers - Carolina has no home field edge at all (3-12-1 vs spread in last 16 home games), Seattle has clinched division, is making third trip to east in the last four weeks. If Panthers start Moore at QB, he'll be their fourth starting QB in 14 games.

8) Jaguars-Steelers - Last Pitt home game until playoffs, and more bad weather expected, so should be lot of running on sloppy track. Not sure about Roethlisberger's shoulder, but history says picking warm weather teams at frigid December sites has seldom been a good idea.

7) Bills-Browns - Who would have thought that two Pac-10 QB's would be leading cold weather Cinderellas in the most pivotal game of Week 15? Like the way Cleveland ran ball late in last week's win. Another bad weather game.

6) Ravens-Dolphins - Baltimore just played Patriots, Colts at home in primetime; now they go on road to face 0-13 foe that is desperate for a win. Of course, they've been desperate for several weeks now, and it hasn't helped before. Miami has five losses by exactly three points.

5) Titans-Chiefs - Norm Chow is supposed to interview for UCLA job, at some point; why would they hire him? If you have to go head-to-head with UCLA, don't you need either a real young guy (Lane Kiffin) or an established winner (Rick Neuheisel), who happens to be an alum? Anyway, the Chow thing is a distraction for the Titans and USC alum Fisher.

4) Eagles-Cowboys - Philly lost last three games by total of 10 points, but they got drilled in first meeting with Dallas. Would guess Eagles give whats left in their tank here.

3) Colts-Raiders - Manning?s first-ever game in the Oakland Coliseum comes when his Colts are getting hot. Not sure how much time Raiders will give rookie QB Russell, but he will not do well vs. Indy.

2) Lions-Chargers - How much did last week's loss to Dallas take out of free-falling Lions (lost last five games, after the 6-2 start)? Bolts have key injuries, but are also gaining momentum towards playoffs.

1) Redskins-Giants - Could be very ugly weather in Swamp, to greet 36-year old Collins for his first start of season, as he replaces injured QB Campbell. When will Giants play as well at home as they do on road?

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 16

Game 255-256: Arizona at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 125.489; New Orleans 135.115
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 10; 55
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over

Game 257-258: Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 118.824; Tampa Bay 134.702
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 16; 42
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 13; 39
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-13); Over

Game 259-260: Baltimore at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 123.551; Miami 125.356
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2; 43
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3 1/2); Over

Game 261-262: Buffalo at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.138; Cleveland 132.616
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5 1/2); Over

Game 263-264: Green Bay at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.076; St. Louis 122.589
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 17 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-8); Over

Game 265-266: Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 141.257; Pittsburgh 136.902
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+4); Over

Game 267-268: NY Jets at New England
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 127.045; New England 151.822
Dunkel Line: New England by 25; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 23 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: New England (-23 1/2); Over

Game 269-270: Seattle at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 134.527; Carolina 124.387
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 10; 45
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 38
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7); Over

Game 271-272: Tennessee at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 131.295; Kansas City 125.357
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 37
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4; 34
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-4); Over

Game 273-274: Indianapolis at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 143.308; Oakland 128.029
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 15 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 10 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-10 1/2); Under

Game 275-276: Detroit at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 127.719; San Diego 139.120
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 11 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-10); Under

Game 277-278: Philadelphia at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 129.139; Dallas 142.493
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 13 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10; 49
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10); Over

Game 279-280: Washington at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.709; NY Giants 134.387
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 8 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-4 1/2); Over

MONDAY, DECEMBER 17

Game 281-282: Chicago at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 126.534; Minnesota 139.375
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 46
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10); Over

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Sunday, December 16
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ARIZONA (6 - 7) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 7) - 12/16/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (3 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (8 - 5) - 12/16/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 9) at MIAMI (0 - 13) - 12/16/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (7 - 6) at CLEVELAND (8 - 5) - 12/16/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEVELAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
BUFFALO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (11 - 2) at ST LOUIS (3 - 10) - 12/16/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (9 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (9 - 4) - 12/16/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (3 - 10) at NEW ENGLAND (13 - 0) - 12/16/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 5-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (9 - 4) at CAROLINA (5 - 8) - 12/16/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 45-69 ATS (-30.9 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
CAROLINA is 70-45 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
SEATTLE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SEATTLE is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (7 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 9) - 12/16/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 2) at OAKLAND (4 - 9) - 12/16/2007, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (6 - 7) at SAN DIEGO (8 - 5) - 12/16/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 8) at DALLAS (12 - 1) - 12/16/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 116-84 ATS (+23.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 44-23 ATS (+18.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (6 - 7) at NY GIANTS (9 - 4) - 12/16/2007, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 17
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CHICAGO (5 - 8) at MINNESOTA (7 - 6) - 12/17/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-24 ATS (-20.4 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CHICAGO is 6-24 ATS (-20.4 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, December 16th

Arizona at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Arizona: 5-1 ATS off a straight up loss
New Orleans: 2-10 ATS as a home favorite

Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Atlanta: 13-1 ATS away after allowing 450+ total yards
Tampa Bay: 2-9 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

Baltimore at Miami, 1:00 EST
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS off a home game
Miami: 6-1 ATS off BB Overs

Buffalo at Cleveland, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 8-19 ATS off a division win by 10+ points
Cleveland: 6-0 ATS as a favorite

Green Bay at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 8-2 ATS off a straight up win
St. Louis: 2-8 ATS after scoring 14 or less points

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 6-0 Over after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Pittsburgh: 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

NY Jets at New England, 1:00 EST
NY Jets: 0-6 ATS away off a loss by 6 or less points
New England: 8-2 ATS vs. conference opponents

Seattle at Carolina, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 8-2 ATS vs. conference opponents
Carolina: 0-7 ATS off a road loss

Tennessee at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 1-5 ATS off BB home games
Kansas City: 6-0 ATS after scoring 9 or less points

Indianapolis at Oakland, 4:05 EST
Indianapolis: 9-0 ATS off a road win by 21+ points
Oakland: 1-11 ATS in December

Detroit at San Diego, 4:15 EST
Detroit: 3-11 ATS off a home game
San Diego: 28-14 ATS off 3+ ATS wins

Philadelphia at Dallas, 4:15 EST
Philadelphia: 10-2 ATS off a division game
Dallas: 9-2 Over off a straight up win

Washington at NY Giants, 8:15 EST NBC
Washington: 10-23 ATS revenging a home loss
NY Giants: 23-12 ATS vs. conference opponents


Monday, December 17th

Chicago at Minnesota, 8:30 EST ESPN
Chicago: 6-24 ATS away in December
Minnesota: 10-1 Under off a win by 10+ points

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Week 15 NFL schedule

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Sunday, December 16
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Cardinals (6-7) @ Saints (6-7) — Winner stays on Vikings’ heels in Wild Card race. Short week for Saints, after Monday night win; they’re 2-4 at home, allowing 37-27 points to Rams, Bucs in last two. Arizona turns ball over too much (2+ TOs in eight of last ten games- they’re 3-1 when they turn it over 0 or 1 time). In last four games, Cardinal TO ratio has been +5/-4/+3/-4; is up to Saints to pressure two-time MVP Warner and force miscues. NO allowed 6.7+ yards/pass in five of last six games, so if Arizona WRs are healthy, this could be high scoring contest. Four of last five Arizona games, five of last seven Saint tilts went over total. Warner lost playoff games by FG each here in both ’00,’01.

Falcons (3-10) @ Tampa Bay (8-5) — Not only is Atlanta travelling on short week, their coach quit on Tuesday, after less than year on job; Bucs won’t have any sympathy, since Gruden and Falcon GM McKay (former Buc GM) aren’t best of buddies. Falcons lost last four games, all by 12+ points; they’re 4-2 as a road dog this year, but this is tough spot, using 4th-string QB on road with interim coaching staff who now have to all be scrambling to find jobs for next year. Bucs won first meeting 31-7 four wks ago (-3), with four takeaways (+2) and 149-49 edge running ball. Tampa won four of last five games, but only one of the four was by more than seven points; they’re 3-1-1 vs. spread as a home favorite.

Ravens (4-9) @ Dolphins (0-13) — Baltimore is off pair of national televised home games vs Pats, Colts, now go on road, trying to avoid being Miami’s first victim of ’07; Ravens lost last seven games, allowing 27+ in last four; they’re 1-6 vs spread as favorite in ’07. Miami home losses are by 17-18-21-3-27 points; they had to go back to Lemon at QB last week, because rookie Beck was so awful. In last eight games, Fish lost field position battle by 7-13-20-17-12-22-10-7 yards; its bad enough if you are a bad team, but then to have to play on longer field makes it worse. Baltimore has two wins this season by more than three points, vs. Bengals (Week 1), Rams (Week 6). Last four Raven games all went over the total.

Bills (7-6) @ Browns (8-5) — Both sides won six of their last eight games; this is key game in AFC Wild Card race. Bills won three of last four road games- they’re 7-1 if they allow 21 or less points,
0-5 if they don’t. Buffalo covered six of its last eight as underdog. Browns scored 24+ in 10 of last 12 games; they’re 1-4 when they score 24 or less, and 3-0 as home favorite, winning its last five at home by 6-14-10-3-10 pts. Favorite is 7-1 vs spread in their last eight games. Improved field position has held Browns; their opponents started 13 drives in Cleveland territory over first six games (scoring 57 points) but in last seven games, they started only seven drives in Brown territory, scoring 24 pts, so Cleveland making foes earn their points.

Packers (11-2) @ Rams (3-10) — Packers are 5-1-1 vs spread as a favorite (not often an 11-2 team has been favored in only seven of 13 games), 5-1 SU on road, with wins by 22-7-6-11-11 points, losing only at Dallas. One of worst games of Favre’s career was six-INT loss in ’01 playoffs in this dome, but those Rams aren’t these Rams, although St Louis is 4-1 vs spread since 0-8 start (1-7 vs spread). Berlin played OK in rainy NFL debut (17-28/153, no sacks, one INT), but only TD was scored by defense that is showing spunk down stretch for Haslett. Over is 9-3 in last dozen Packer games. Would guess Cheeseheads will buy up lot of seats from apathetic Ram fans; not wise to buck Favre this season.

Jaguars (9-4) @ Steelers (9-4) — Spunky Jax is 4-2 vs spread as dog this season, 4-2 SU on road, losing in Superdome (41-24, with Gray at QB), 28-25 at Indy- they’re 9-1 in last ten outdoor games, so elements of Heinz Field shouldn’t bother them- only two of their four losses are by more than FG. Steelers are 7-0 at home, with two easy road games (Rams, Ravens) to follow- their home wins are by 23-21-21-31-3-3-14 points. In last five weeks, Jags ran ball 44-37-26-31-38 times (avg of 35.2), while Steeler opponents ran ball 18-34-23-23-9 times (avg of 21.8), interesting to see if Jax can establish run game on sloppy track. Jaguars have 3+ TDs in each of last five games; their last seven games went over total.

Jets (3-10) @ Patriots (13-0) —It was reported this week that Patriots had Jet cameraman removed from walkway in game at Foxboro LY, which may have been genesis of Spygate Game in Week 1 this year, which NE won 38-14 (-6), when Pats outrushed Jets 134-60 (TY 431-227), had five sacks, averaged 10.6 yards/ pass attempt. Pats averaged 61.6 yds/drive in low-possession game; they’re 5-1 as home favorite, with wins by 24-31-17-45-3-21. Only two of ten Jet losses are by more than 11 pts (34-3 at Dallas was the other); they’re 4-6 vs spread as dog. Over is 11-2 in Patriot games this year; when I saw spread was around 24, my first thought was, "That’s pretty low", since Belichick might want to hang big number on Jets.

Seahawks (9-4) @ Panthers (5-8) — Really impossible to endorse Carolina squad playing Testaverde’s ghost at QB; they’re 1-6 in last seven games, with five losses by 13+ points, and have been outscored 85-31 in second half of last five games, indicating lack of spunk/grit/heart. Panthers have seven TDs on last 93 drives. Seattle clinched fourth NFC West title in row last week, are making third east coast trip in last four weeks, but have won, covered last five games, though only one of last four wins was by more than seven pts. Hawks have three special teams TDs and another on defense in last seven games; they’ve picked off 11 passes in last three games, and held last six foes to 6.0 or less yards per pass.

Titans (7-6) @ Chiefs (4-9) — Damaging loss for Titans last week, blowing 17-3 lead at home in final 10:00, for fourth loss in last five games- they allowed 105 points in last three road games, after giving up only 37 in first three- they’re 3-4 vs spread as favorite. Chiefs are another team without decent QB; they’re 0-6 since bye (1-5 vs spread), with losses by 11-16-3-3-14-34 points; they’re 2-5 at home, with last home win Oct. 14- they went 3/out ten times in 12 drives at Denver last week, getting outgained 453-129. Over last five games, KC turned ball over 14 times (-10). Chiefs have been outscored 76-14 in second half of last five games- they averaged 19.1/10.8 yards/drive in last two games, not good at all.

Colts (11-2) @ Raiders (4-9) — In last three games, Indy had 21-21-37 points at half, so with Clark back in lineup and Ohio State rookie Gonzalez filling in ably for Harrison, Manning’s passing game is back in gear. Not sure if Oakland will use Russell for part of game (he played second quarter in last home game); Raiders got smoked at Lambeau last week, giving up 445 yards, plus two special teams scores, but they won last two at home, upsetting Chiefs, Denver. Colts are 6-1 on road, with last four wins by 22-24-18-24 points. This is their last road game until likely visit to Foxboro for AFC title game Jan. 20. Last three Indy games, last four Oakland games all went over the total.

Lions (6-7) @ Chargers (8-5) — Free-falling Detroit (lost last five games, giving up 37-42-28 points) visits Charger team playing without Merriman, Neal, two of its key players. Bolts won last three games, rallying from 17-3 deficit to win in OT last week in Nashville- they’re 5-1 at home, with wins by 11-14-25-2-18 pts. Lions are 2-4 on road, with losses by 35-31-10-31 points; they forced only five turnovers in last four games (-1), after forcing 28 in first nine (+7). Interesting to see if LT can run on Detroit defense that allowed just one of last seven foes to rush for more than 100 yards (Vikings had 216 two weeks ago). Five of last six Detroit games went over the total.

Eagles (5-8) @ Cowboys (12-1) — Snakebit Philly lost last three games by total of 10 points; they covered last four road games, are 3-3 SU on foreign soil, with losses at Green Bay (16-13), Giants (16-3), Foxboro (31-28). Dallas (-3) won first meeting 38-17 in Week 9, as Romo was 20-25/324 passing (13 yards/pass attempt). Cowboys scored two of their five TDs on drives that started in Eagle territory, as they had 12-yard edge in field position. Dallas is 6-1 at home, 5-1 as home favorite, with wins by 10-28-10-5-31-10 pts. Eagles have only two INTs in their last seven games. Five of last seven Philly games, five of last six Dallas games went over total.

Redskins (6-7) @ Giants (9-4) — Giants play better on road; visiting team won their last five games. Washington had 10 days to breathe after whirlwind week, with loss to Bills, funeral next day, then win Thursday over Bears, snapping four-game skid, but QB Campbell is out now, leaving reins to 36-year old sub Collins, who makes first start in Swamp, where Giants are just 3-3, losing last two, to Vikings, Dallas. Giants (+3.5) won first meeting 24-17 in Week 3, rallying from 17-3 deficit to take lead, then using late goal line stand to preserve it. Skins were +2 in turnovers, had 15-yard edge in field position in first meeting, still lost. Game has more urgency for Redskins, who play Vikings next week.


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Monday, December 17
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Bears (5-8) @ Vikings (7-6) — Red-hot Minnesota won, covered four in row since 34-0 beating at Lambeau; their defense scored four TDs, allowed four in last three games. Vikes are 4-2 as home favorite, winning last three in Metrodome by 35-17/29-22/42-10 scores (13 TDs on 33 drives), running ball for 378-228-216 yards in those three games. Vikings ran ball for 311 yards first meeting, a dramatic 34-31 win when Grossman rallied Bears from two-TD deficit to tie game late (Chicago averaged 8.0 ypp, highest this year). Tough spot for Orton to make first start in couple years (Grossman is out (knee)); Bears lost three of last four games, are 3-4 on road, 2-3 as road dog, with losses by 11-10-7-8 points.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL



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Tips and Trends
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Sunday, December 16

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

This is actually one of the worst situational spots we have seen all season, as Seattle should have a very difficult time getting up for this cross-country contest (with an early starting time of 10 a.m. Pacific) after clinching the NFC West Division title last week. Some team insiders reported seeing some Seattle players very tired in this brutal traveling spot as this is their third long trip in the last four weeks. EDGE: PANTHERS
Seattle offense is on a roll scoring 33, 30, 24, 30, 24, 28 and 42 points over their last 7 games. EDGE: SEAHAWKS
Seahawks are 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a win of more than 14 points.
Panthers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
The OVER is 20-8 in Seattle's last 28 games against a losing home team.


Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (CBS | 1 PM ET)

This is a monumental game for the Buffalo Bills, coming into this contest tied with Tennessee at 7-6 and just one game behind their opponent Cleveland (8-5) in the race for the AFC's final playoff spot. EDGE: BILLS
Cleveland has been on a roll lately but still has flaws. Despite the fact that the Browns come into this contest with the NFL’s No. 8 ranked offense, their defense nevertheless has the distinction of being worst in the NFL allowing 389 yards per game. Indeed, their rushing defense allows 130 yards per game (28th), and the pass defense allows 259 yards per game (30th in the league). EDGE: BILLS
The Bills have 7 wins over their last 10 games with the only losses coming to the undefeated Patriots, Jaguars and Cowboys (losing 25-24). EDGE: BILLS
Buffalo rookie QB Trent Edwards is 5-1 in games he has started this season. EDGE: BILLS
Bills are on a 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run over their last 10 games.
Bills are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win.
Bills are 13-7 ATS as an underdog under head coach Dick Jauron.
Browns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a winning team.
Browns are 5-1 SU & ATS at home and 5-0 SU & ATS as a favorite.
The UNDER is 24-11 in Buffalo's last 35 games as a road underdog.


Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Kansas City team insiders are very concerned about the Chiefs defense that has been shredded over their last 6 games, giving up 33, 27, 13, 17, 24 and 41 points. Considering the Chiefs are only averaging 15 points per game at home this season, they need their defense to play well in order to have any shot at winning this contest. EDGE: TITANS
Tennessee has been struggling as of late, losers of 4 of their last 5 games and should have trouble against Chiefs team that should be fired up to play their last home game of the season. EDGE: CHIEFS
Titans are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite.
Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.


Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders are concerned with a Miami run defense that ranks last in the NFL, allowing 155 yards per game. Their overall defense has not been all that impressive either as the Dolphins have allowed 40 and 38 points against the mediocre offenses of the Jets and Bills over their last 2 games. EDGE: RAVENS
The injury bug has hit this winless Miami team hard, as four starters sat out of last Sunday's game with injuries: their top RB in Jesse Chatman (ankle), top WR in Marty Booker (knee) and top tackler in Channing Crowder (foot), all doubtful this week. EDGE: RAVENS
Team insiders are reporting that Baltimore players are discouraged and frustrated after losing a franchise-record 7 straight games. EDGE: DOLPHINS
Despite the winless record, Miami has shown a lot of heart this season, as 6 of the team's 13 losses have been by 3 points or less. EDGE: DOLPHINS
Miami rookie QB John Beck has played 4 games, 12+ quarters, and has not produced a single touchdown this season. That means it's back to Cleo Lemon under center. EDGE: RAVENS
The Dolphins should come into this game more refreshed than the Ravens, who come into this contest off four hard-fought games against winning opponents (Indianapolis, New England, San Diego and Cleveland) whose combined record is 40-12. EDGE: DOLPHINS
Ravens are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Dolphins are 1-15-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against a losing road team.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.


New York Jets at New England Patriots (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Patriots come into this contest with the NFL’s No. 1 offense in the league as they have scored 38, 38, 38, 34, 34, 48, 49, 52, 24, 56, 31, 27 and 34 points. That could present all kinds of problems against a Jets defense that is 3rd-worst in the league. BIG EDGE: PATRIOTS

Team insiders expect an angry bunch of Patriots who are eager to send a message to Jets head coach Eric Mangini, who blew the whistle on the Patriots taping a game earlier this season. New England won 38-14, out-gaining New York by 204 yards. BIG EDGE: PATRIOTS
Weather could be a big concern with such a lofty point spread as temperatures are forecasted to be in the low 30s with snow and sleet. EDGE: UNDER
Team insiders are impressed with the recent resurgence of the New York running game, as the Jets have rushed for 166 and 119 yards over their last 2 games. EDGE: JETS
The Jets are 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road this season.
Jets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss.
Jets are 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Patriots are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win of 14+ points.


Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders are concerned of the recent play of the Arizona defense which has been shredded as of late, giving up 21, 27, 37, 21 and 42 points over their last 5 games. Even the 49ers - who ranked last in the NFL in several offensive categories - gained 374 yards in a 37-31 win three weeks ago. EDGE: SAINTS
League insiders are expecting a lot of offense in this contest as both teams are in the Top 10 in the league in passing offense.
New Orleans comes into this contest with the No. 4 in passing offense in the league but will be without star RB Reggie Bush, who is out for the year. EDGE: OVER
Arizona team insiders are reporting that Kurt Warner may have another target back for this game, as WR Anquan Boldin - who has been out with a dislocated toe on his left foot - hopes to be back this game. EDGE: CARDINALS
The Saints defense is 27th overall, allowing over 252 passing per game, good for 4th- worst in the league. EDGE: CARDINALS

Cardinals are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
Saints are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points.
The OVER is 36-16 in Arizona's last 52 games as a road underdog.


Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

With a win against Atlanta, Tampa Bay will clinch the division title, which should give the Bucs extra motivation for this contest. EDGE: BUCS
Team insiders are curious to see how Atlanta reacts after the news that their head coach Bobby Petrino stepped down after their Monday night loss to New Orleans. EDGE: BUCS
Over the past 4 games, Atlanta has lost by an average margin of 31-12, also producing 10 turnovers. EDGE: BUCS
The Falcons come into this contest with the 3rd-worst offense in the NFL, as only the Chiefs and 49ers average fewer points. They are averaging a meager 12 points per game on the road, which is bad news against a Tampa defense that is ranked 3rd-best in the league, allowing just 12 points per game at home. EDGE: BUCS
Falcons are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against a winning team.
Bucs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a losing team.
The favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders are reporting the Pittsburgh players and coaches are eager to avenge their embarrassing loss against New England last weekend after Pittsburgh safety Anthony Smith guaranteed a victory. But the question remains, can they recover from that thrashing? The last 5 teams that lost to New England failed to cover in their next game. SLIGHT EDGE: JAGUARS
This is a bit of a letdown spot for Jacksonville, as the Jaguars have all but wrapped up their wild card berth and their chances of catching the Colts in the AFC South are slim. EDGE: STEELERS
Team insiders are concerned as to how the Jacksonville players will react to the bitter cold temperatures expected at kickoff in this contest. Warm weather teams tend to fade quickly after a few quarters playing in the bitter cold. EDGE: STEELERS
The Jaguars may sit some players, as several of their key defensive players are injured. Ruled out are middle linebacker Mike Peterson, pass rusher Reggie Hayward and tackle Marcus Stroud, who was put on injured reserve this week. EDGE: STEELERS
Jacksonville insiders are concerned with the team's pass defense, which currently ranks 27th in the league, allowing 237 passing yards per game. EDGE: STEELERS
Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS at home and they allowing opponents just 9 points per game this season. Jags are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog.
Steelers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points.
The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.


Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders are reporting that St. Louis will start Marc Bulger (concussion) at QB this week after he missed the last 2 games. This could be trouble against a Green Bay defense that has shown great skills in rushing the passer this season. EDGE: PACKERS
Since Ryan Grant took the starting RB job in Green Bay, he leads the league in rushing yards. He is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, the 2nd-best average among backs currently starting for their teams. EDGE: PACKERS
Green Bay comes into this contest winners of 7 of its past 8 road contests, losing only at Dallas when several key injured defensive starters were out, including Charles Woodson and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. Both Woodson and Gbaja-Biamila are healthy for this contest. EDGE: PACKERS
Packers are outscoring their opponents by a 28-16 average this season.
Packers are 15-2 SU & 14-3-1 ATS their last 17 games overall.
Packers are 5-1 SU & ATS on the road this season.
Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points.
Packers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against a winning team.


Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (CBS | 4:05 PM ET)

Indianapolis team insiders are reporting that Colts WR Marvin Harrison (knee) is likely out until the playoffs. EDGE: RAIDERS
The Raiders run defense comes into this contest as the 2nd- worst in the league, allowing 150 yards per game, which is good news for the Colt’s Joseph Addai. If they have to stack the box to stop the run, then Peyton Manning will have his way passing the football despite Harrison's absence. EDGE: COLTS
Insiders close to the Raiders are reporting that rookie head coach Lane Kiffin was "very disappointed" that he did not get the Arkansas job, and his players realize he is eyeing a return to college football. That could make Oakland a good fade play down the stretch, especially with rookie QB Jamarcus Russell getting more playing time. BIG EDGE: COLTS
Colts are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points.
The UNDER is 38-18-4 in Oakland's last 60 games following a SU loss.


Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)

Eagles are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games as an underdog.
Eagles are 8-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Dallas.
Cowboys are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 home games against a losing road team.


Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers (FOX | 4:15 ET)

Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10 points.
Chargers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points.
The OVER is 11-4 in Detroit's last 15 road games.


Washington Redskins at New York Giants (NBC | 8:15 ET)

Redskins are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win.
Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings at New York.

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[pm530]

National Football League – over/under plays

NFL
Total bias: Week 15 over/under plays


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NFL over/under picks
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Total bias: Week 15 over/under plays

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns – over 43 ½

The Browns’ big-play receivers should have a field day with the Bills’ mediocre secondary. The Bills will likely put cornerback Terrence McGee on future Pro Bowl receiver Braylon Edwards but there’s not a player in a Buffalo uniform who can match up with Browns tight end Kellen Winslow.

No team gives up more points (27.4) than the Browns. Buffalo will take advantage of Cleveland’s Achilles’ heel with a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch. Expect the rookie running back to rush for two touchdowns on Sunday.


Washington Redskins at New York Giants – under 36 ½

When I watch the Giants play I get the distinct impression head coach Tom Coughlin doesn’t trust his quarterback. Eli Manning has made too many poor decisions over the last few weeks and that’s led to an even larger role for the running game.

The Redskins aren’t much of a threat with Todd Collins running the show. The career backup looked good last week, but I think that had more to do with a Bears defense sucking wind in the second half.


Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings – under 43 ½

The last time the Bears traveled to Minnesota to play the Vikings, oddsmakers put out a total of 36 and the contest ended in a push. Of course that was when the Bears’ defense still had some bite and the Vikes didn’t have rookie running back Adrian Peterson.

Chicago’s ‘D’ can still get to the quarterback (35 sacks) and you know the Bears would love to knock a division opponent out of postseason contention. Hey, misery loves company.

The Vikings have scored at least 27 points in their last four games but several six-pointers came from defensive scores and special teams’ plays.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Underdogs

NFL
Underdogs


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NFL underdogs: picks
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NFL underdogs: Week 15 picks

Buffalo at Cleveland – Bills +5 ½

You knew this was coming. Surprise, the Bills are pulling a Rodney Dangerfield.

"It's no different than any other week," linebacker Angelo Crowell told reporters. "We've been trying to make a statement around here every week. No one respects us, so we're just back to work.”

That’s the beauty of this Bills club. They could easily be 9-4 if a couple bounces had gone their way and are 8-4-1 against the spread as it is.

The defense has been solid all year and Trent Edwards gives the offense a real spark. I like the Browns a lot, but I’ll take the points with Buffalo. I’ll give them some respect.


Jacksonville at Pittsburgh – Jaguars +3 ½

What would the Jaguars be with a consistent passing attack? A legitimate contender, that’s what.

Reggie Williams is doing his part. The former first-pick started slow and didn’t make much of an impact outside of the red zone until Week 9 when he went off for 128 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Since then he’s become a much more consistent target for David Garrard, going over the middle and moving the chains to get into scoring position instead of waiting for a 12-yard fade route in the back of the end zone.


Washington at New York Giants – Redskins +4 ½

Sometimes tragedies have a way of pulling a team together.

The Redskins lost a heartbreaking 17-16 decision to the Bills just days following Sean Taylor’s death, but rebounded to smoke the Bears 24-16 less than a week later. They pulled out the win even though they lost their starting quarterback, Jason Campbell, to a knee injury in the process.

The 36-year-old backup Todd Collins was efficient in relief and you can expect much of the same this week in a huge game for Washington. He’s not flashy, but he’s a bright guy who’s learned a lot since his last start way back in 1997. He won’t make a mistake that loses the game – he can leave that up to the sloppy Giants.


Last week’s record: 0-3
Season record to date: 20-21-1

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[pm530]

National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL
NFL poolies' cheat sheet


Sunday, December 16

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Cheat Sheet
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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 15

Denver at Houston (pick)

Why Broncos cover: Have won last five meetings. Young stars are excelling in place of banged-up veterans. Brandon Marshall has 279 yards receiving and three TDs in his last three games and Selvin Young is averaging over six yards per touch. Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC and are now down to their third-string running back.

Why Texans cover: Are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games. Sage Rosenfels is 2-0 as the starting quarterback. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Denver could be without wide receivers Brandon Stokley and Javon Walker, both game-time decisions.

Total (37): Over is 5-0 in Broncos’ last five road games and 14-3 in their last 17 vs. AFC.


Cincinnati at San Francisco (+8 ½)

Why Bengals cover: Have won last two meetings. Rudi Johnson has scored in three straight games. San Francisco has allowed the second-most offensive plays in the league. 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Why 49ers cover: Home team has won four straight meetings. Quarterback Shaun Hill looked better than both Trent Dilfer and Alex Smith and gets to face Cincy’s 26th-ranked pass defense. Bengals are 1-6 ATS versus a team with a losing record.

Total (43): Under is 5-1 in 49ers’ last six home games and 4-1 in Bengals’ last five games overall.


Arizona at New Orleans (-3 ½)

Why Cardinals Cover: Are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Could have receiver Anquan Boldin back from a toe injury. Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.

Why Saints cover: Aaron Stecker filled in nicely for an injured Reggie Bush with 100 yards rushing. Have won four of their last five road games. Have the NFC’s third-best passing offense.

Total (47 ½): Over is 4-1 in Saints’ last five vs. NFC and 4-1 in Cardinals’ last five games overall.


Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-13)

Why Falcons cover: Will be inspired to win to spite Bobby Petrino, the team’s former head coach who suddenly resigned on Tuesday. Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Why Buccaneers cover: Jeff Garcia is probable to return from a back injury. Earnest Graham has six TDs in his last five games and will face the Falcons’ 27th-ranked rush defense. Favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these clubs.

Total (39): Over is 4-0 in Falcons’ last four games.


Baltimore at Miami (+3 ½)

Why Ravens cover: Won’t want to be the only team that loses to Miami. Holding opponents to 2.8 yards per carry, which is tops in the NFL. After losing six of its first 11 games by just three points, Miami has been outscored 78-30 in its last two. Running back Willis McGahee gets to face the worst rushing defense in the league.

Why Dolphins cover: Cleo Lemon replaces the ineffective John Beck at quarterback. Home team has won four of last five meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Ravens’ cornerbacks are both hampered by injuries. Matt Stover has only attempted four field goals in his last seven games. Ravens have yet to cover on the road this season.

Total (37 ½): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Miami and 5-1 in the last six meetings overall.


Buffalo at Cleveland (-5 ½)

Why Bills cover: Are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Have only committed 17 turnovers this season. Buffalo is 5-1 with Trent Edwards as the starting quarterback. Fred Jackson (197 yards in last two games) teams up with Marshawn Lynch for two-headed rushing attack.

Why Browns cover: Are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Can clinch a wild-card spot with a win. AFC’s fifth best offense goes up against NFL’s 30th-ranked defense. Jamal Lewis has taken pressure off the passing game with 406 yards rushing and three TDs in his last four games.

Total (44 ½): AFC’s two worst defenses face off.


Green Bay at St. Louis (+10)

Why Packers cover: Brett Favre has 1,201 yards and 10 TDs in his last five games against the Rams. Ryan Grant has averaged 102.4 rushing yards per game since becoming the featured running back. If Marc Bulger isn’t fully recovered from his concussion, Brock Berlin (60.6 rating) will make his second NFL start. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams.

Why Rams cover: Have covered in four of last five games. Have won three of last four meetings with Green Bay and two straight at home. Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (44): Over is 5-1 in Packers’ last six road games and 4-0 in their last four games overall.


Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-3 ½)

Why Jaguars cover: Are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams. Fred Taylor has rushed for 578 yards and scored five TDs in his last five games against Pittsburgh. Held Willie Parker to 87 yards and no scores in three games. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Why Steelers cover: Allow 30 yards less per game than the next best defense and hold opponents to 14.5 points per game. Expected to get Troy Polamalu back from a knee injury. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Jaguars will be without star DT Marcus Stroud for the rest of the season.

Total: (37): Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.


N.Y. Jets at New England (-23 ½)

Why Jets cover: Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in New England. Road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings. After covering in eight straight games to start the season, New England has failed to cover in three of its last five.

Why Patriots cover: Will want to punish Jets for the Spygate scandal that cost them a first-round draft pick. Have won nine of last ten meetings. Favorite is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings. Jets are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Total (47): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.


Tennessee at Kansas City (+4)

Why Titans cover: Trying to keep playoff hopes alive. Have 1,736 rushing yards, fourth best in the league. K.C. has the league’s 24th-ranked rush defense. After starting 4-3, Kansas City has lost six straight games and is 1-4 ATS since Larry Johnson suffered his foot injury. If Kolby Smith isn’t healthy enough to play, the Chiefs will be down to fourth-string running back Gilbert Harris.

Why Chiefs cover: Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Titans could be without defensive stud Albert Haynesworth who re-aggravated his hamstring injury last week. Home team has won seven of last 10 meetings. Vince Young has thrown nine interceptions in his last six games.

Total (34): Over is 4-1 in Chiefs’ last five home games.


Seattle at Carolina (+7)

Why Seahawks cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five games, winning each time. Shaun Alexander has 195 yards and two scores in two career games against Carolina. Panthers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Rookie Matt Moore might start at QB for Carolina.

Why Panthers cover: Home team has won all three previous meetings. Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite.

Total (37 ½): Under is 4-1 in Panthers last five home games.


Indianapolis at Oakland (+10 ½)

Why Colts cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Can clinch AFC South title with win. Peyton Manning has thrown eight TDs in three career games against Oakland. Raiders have allowed 21 rushing touchdowns, most in the league.

Why Raiders cover: Have won four of the last five meetings. Are fifth in the NFL with 1,705 rushing yards. Have the league’s fifth-best pass defense.

Total (45): Over is 4-0 in Raiders’ last four games.


Detroit at San Diego (-10)

Why Lions cover: Are fighting for their playoff lives. Jon Kitna has thrown 10 touchdowns in his last five games against San Diego. Chargers will be without All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman who has a knee injury. Quarterback Philip Rivers’ mobility could be hampered by a knee brace.

Why Chargers cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Have won seven of last nine games. In his only game against Detroit, LaDainian Tomlinson had 236 combined yards and two TDs. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Total (45 ½): Over is 5-1 in Lions last six games overall.


Philadelphia at Dallas (-10)

Why Eagles cover: Are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Dallas. Brian Westbrook totaled 155 yards and a TD in the last meeting between these teams. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and has won three of last four. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Why Cowboys cover: Can clinch a first-round playoff bye with win. Tony Romo threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns in their last meeting. Have picked off Donovan McNabb five times in last five meetings.

Total (49): Over is 4-1 in Eagles’ last five vs. NFC and 5-1 in Cowboys’ last six games overall.


Washington at N.Y. Giants (-4 ½)

Why Redskins cover: Need to win to keep playoff hopes alive. Intercepted Eli Manning twice in last meeting. Giants’ defensive starters Antonio Pierce, Gibril Wilson and James Butler are all battling injuries.

Why Giants cover: Need a win to secure wild-card berth. Feared pass rush will pressure immobile QB Todd Collins. Washington only averages 16.7 points on the road. Clinton Portis is averaging 47.5 yards rushing over his last four games. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (36 ½): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in New York.


Chicago at Minnesota (-10)

Why Bears cover: Have won five of last eight meetings between these teams. Only lost by three points in first meeting this season. Vikings have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL and have allowed the second-most passing first downs and third-down conversions.

Why Vikings cover: Trying to maintain hold of NFC’s final wild-card spot. RBs Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor meet a Bears defense struggling to stop the run. Chicago will start third-string quarterback Kyle Orton. Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota.

Total (43 ½): Over is 5-0 in Vikings’ last five home games.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday


Sunday, December 16

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NFL Gameday
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Sunday NFL Gameday

Two 9-4 teams will meet at Heinz Field on Sunday afternoon as the Pittsburgh Steelers will play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Here's a rundown in your NFL Gameday . . .

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) (Total 36.5)
Heinz Field, 1:00pm ET (CBS)

The Jaguars are two games back of the Colts in the AFC South, but they've got the best record of all the Wild Card contenders in the AFC right now. Jacksonville is coming off an easy 37-6 home win over the Panthers in Week 14, with David Garrard completing 20-of-36 pass attempts for 230 yards and two touchdowns in that contest. Fred Taylor had a huge game on the ground against Carolina, as he picked up 132 yards and a TD.

The Steelers were down just 17-13 at halftime against the Patriots on Sunday, but the Pats pulled away in the second half to secure a 34-13 victory. Willie Parker ran for 124 yards on 21 carries for Pittsburgh in that loss, while Ben Roethlisberger was good on 19-of-32 pass attempts for 187 yards and a TD. Big Ben is listed as questionable this week with a sore right shoulder, and he could end up as a game-time decision Sunday.

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-5.5) (Total 40.5)
Cleveland Browns Stadium, 1:00pm ET (CBS)

Buffalo improved to 7-6 and remained in the AFC's playoff picture with a 38-17 home pasting of the hapless Dolphins in Week 14. The Bills scored 24 points in the first quarter of that contest and cruised from there to the win. Trent Edwards was good on 11-of-23 pass attempts for 165 yards against Miami, with four TDs and zero INTs. Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson each rushed for over 100 yards in the easy victory.

The Browns are just one game back of the Steelers in the AFC North, and they enter the weekend as the conference's second Wild Card team. Cleveland managed to get past the Jets in New York by a score of 24-18 last weekend to improve their record to 8-5 on the season. Derek Anderson went 16-of-29 for 185 yards with two TDs and an INT in that contest, while Jamal Lewis ran for 118 yards and a touchdown on his 21 carries.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-10) (Total 48.5)
Texas Stadium, 4:15pm ET (FOX)

The Eagles' playoff chances suffered a blow with a 16-13 home loss to the Giants in Week 14. That defeat dropped Philadelphia to 5-8 on the season, and kept them in last place in the NFC East. Donovan McNabb went 20-of-30 for 179 yards passing in that contest, with one touchdown strike. Brian Westbrook ran for 116 yards on 20 carries and also caught a TD pass. TE L.J. Smith will miss Week 15 with knee and rib injuries.

Dallas has clinched the NFC East division title, and they'll be looking for their eighth straight victory when they host the Eagles on Sunday afternoon. The 12-1 Cowboys narrowly edged the Lions 28-27 in Detroit last weekend, thanks to a Tony Romo TD pass with 18 seconds left in the game. Romo went 34-of-44 for 302 yards passing on the day with two TD strikes. Jason Witten had the late TD grab and picked up 138 yards.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-4.5) (Total 36)
Giants Stadium, 8:15pm ET (NBC)

The Redskins knocked off the Bears 24-16 at home last week despite losing starting quarterback Jason Campbell with a knee injury. Campbell went 10-of-16 for 100 yards passing before leaving that contest, and he'll definitely miss this Sunday's game against the Giants. Todd Collins, who tossed two TD strikes against Chicago, will get the nod at quarterback, and at 6-7 on the year the Redskins can't afford to lose any more games.

Eli Manning went 17-of-31 for 219 yards passing in New York's win over Philadelphia in Week 14, with one touchdown strike and no interceptions. That put the Giants at 9-4 on the season, and they're in the driver's seat for a Wild Card berth in the NFC. Plaxico Burress caught seven passes for 136 yards and a touchdown versus Philly, but he's listed as questionable for Sunday with a sore ankle. Brandon Jacobs ran for 70 yards.

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[pm530]

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 20

Game 303-304: Navy vs. Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 82.940; Utah 92.340
Dunkel Line: Utah by 9 1/2; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah by 8; 66
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-8); Under


FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21

Game 305-306: Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 74.549; Memphis 75.987
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 1 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 3; 67
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3); Over


SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 309-310: Southern Mississippi at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 82.077; Cincinnati 97.871
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 16; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 11; 56
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-11); Under

Game 311-312: Nevada vs. New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 86.090; New Mexico 86.684
Dunkel Line: Even; 58
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 3 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+3 1/2); Under

Game 313-314: UCLA vs. BYU
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 95.600; BYU 98.610
Dunkel Line: BYU by 3; 50
Vegas Line: BYU by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+7); Over


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 341-342: East Carolina vs. Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 84.667; Boise State 99.423
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 15; 64
Vegas Line: Boise State by 10 1/2; 72
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-10 1/2); Under


WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26

Game 401-402: Central Michigan vs. Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 81.392; Purdue 85.522
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 4; 75
Vegas Line: Purdue by 9; 72
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+9); Over


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27

Game 403-404: Texas vs. Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 96.683; Arizona State 99.483
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 3; 68
Vegas Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+2 1/2); Over


FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

Game 405-406: Michigan State vs. Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 99.341; Boston College 97.258
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 2; 60
Vegas Line: Boston College by 3 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+3 1/2); Over

Game 407-408: TCU vs. Houston
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 95.433; Houston 83.788
Dunkel Line: TCU by 11 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: TCU by 3 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-3 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Maryland vs. Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 97.194; Oregon State 98.854
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 4 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+4 1/2); Under


SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29

Game 413-414: Connecticut vs. Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 95.073; Wake Forest 93.060
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 2; 51
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 3 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3 1/2); Over

Game 415-416: Central Florida vs. Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 87.201; Mississippi State 90.690
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 3 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 3; 60
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+3); Under

Game 417-418: Penn State vs. Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 97.908; Texas A&M 96.335
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Penn State by 6; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+6); Under


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 30

Game 449-450: Colorado vs. Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 93.541; Alabama 93.507
Dunkel Line: Even; 56
Vegas Line: Alabama by 4; 51
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+4); Over


MONDAY, DECEMBER 31

Game 451-452: Air Force vs. California
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 95.982; California 95.318
Dunkel Line: Even; 52
Vegas Line: California by 4; 54
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+4); Under

Game 453-454: Oregon vs. South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 95.990; South Florida 97.318
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 1 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: South Florida by 7; 52
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+7); Over

Game 455-456: Fresno State vs. Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 88.248; Georgia Tech 90.721
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 2 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 4 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+4 1/2); Under

Game 457-458: Florida State vs. Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 94.005; Kentucky 96.901
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 3; 52
Vegas Line: Pick; 56
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky; Under

Game 459-460: Indiana vs. Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 85.280; Oklahoma State 97.061
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 12; 60
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 4; 69
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-4); Under

Game 461-462: Auburn vs. Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 95.786; Clemson 99.817
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 4; 52 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 1 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-1 1/2); Over


TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

Game 463-464: Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 98.299; Tennessee 97.478
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 1; 62
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+4); Over

Game 465-466: Arkansas vs. Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 101.992; Missouri 104.454
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 2 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Missouri by 3 1/2; 69 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+3 1/2); Over

Game 467-468: Michigan vs. Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 95.120; Florida 107.493
Dunkel Line: Florida by 12 1/2; 67
Vegas Line: Florida by 9 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-9 1/2); Over

Game 469-470: Texas Tech vs. Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 97.229; Virginia 94.831
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 2 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 5 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+5 1/2); Under

Game 471-472: Illinois vs. USC
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 95.302; USC 105.428
Dunkel Line: USC by 10; 46
Vegas Line: USC by 13 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+13 1/2); Under

Game 473-474: Hawaii vs. Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 99.289; Georgia 103.503
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 4; 64
Vegas Line: Georgia by 9; 69
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+9); Under


WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2

Game 475-476: West Virginia at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 107.094; Oklahoma 109.453
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 2 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 7; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+7); Under


THURSDAY, JANUARY 3

Game 477-478: Kansas vs. Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 108.046; Virginia Tech 108.374
Dunkel Line: Even; 57
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+3 1/2); Over


SATURDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 483-484: Ball State vs. Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 83.401; Rutgers 91.494
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 8; 55
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 10; 60
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+10); Under


SUNDAY, JANUARY 6

Game 489-490: Bowling Green vs. Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 83.544; Tulsa 84.741
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 1; 69
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 5; 76
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+5); Under


MONDAY, JANUARY 7

Game 491-492: Ohio State vs. LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 109.014; LSU 112.040
Dunkel Line: LSU by 3; 54
Vegas Line: LSU by 6; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+6); Over

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