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CA$HCLUB INC NFL for this weekend. We stand at 1-2, minus 1.2 units YTD.
This is not a joke. I handicapped these games and came up with certain selections. But I kept running into some trends and angles that worked against me too powerfully to ignore. Sometimes things don't work in sports that should work when you use common sense. For instance, you use talent evaluation AND motivational aspects, and you come up with Tampa Bay vs New Orleans last year in Sunday Night Football. Tampa was healthy, wanted and needed the win to chase 1 or 2 seed, and had learned Gruden's offense. They had already been knocked off by the Saints earlier in the year. They promptly go out and get beaten again. Next week, they face Pittsburgh at HOME. Line is low because Johnson is out. They wanted this one as well for the "paper champions" comment. They go out and get smoked!!
So then you jump off the TB bandwagon and they go out and win the Super Bowl. This happened with a great number of teams last year. Tennessee, Dallas, Philly, SF, Green Bay......the list went on and on. The teams were offensive teams, defensive teams. Road teams. Home teams. Good teams. Bad teams. The only thing they had in common was that they were favorites! Many of them favorites that made sense due to motivation and talent advantages. Yet they all went through a similar cycle as the one I just described.
I don't think this year will be all dogs all the time like last season. But I do think that the dogs will rebound shortly. So far this season, the favorites have covered to the tune of 18 - 10 - 2. That's 18 wins, 10 losses and two pushes (NYJ vs Wash and SF vs STL). I threw out the NE/BUF and STL/NYG games from week 1 because those were primarily "pick 'em" games. I know, I know....some books went to NE -1 and NYG -1 on that Sunday (which would have added 1 win and 1 loss to each side), but there was no concensus favorite with those games.
The bottom line is this. No matter how I have handicapped these contests, I will not go into the teeth of a 'dogs rebound. So I am going in with these wagers, plain and simple. I hate doing it this way, but I am doing it nonetheless. ALL DOGS THIS WEEK.
NYJ +7 -- 1.5 units
Cincy +5 -- 1.5 units
Jax + 7.5 -- 1.5 units
Detroit +4 -- 1.5 units
NO + 4.5 -- 1.5 units
ATL + 4 -- 1.5 units
Hou +7.5 -- 1.5 units
NYG + 3 (-125) -- 1.5 units
ARI + 7.5 -- 1.5 units
STL + 3.5 (-125) -- 1.5 units
SD +1 -- 1.5 units
Cle +7.5 (-120) -- 1.5 units
Buf + 3.5 (-125) -- 1.5 units
That's 1.65 to win 1.5 units on all except where the half point was bought. This isn't that risky since I am only wagering less than 2 units on each and the favs did so well last week (10-5-1). If I lose, that's life. But I am betting against the favs winning 3 weeks in a row. Really the only danger is if Vegas is lying and most people are taking the dogs so far this year, but I don't think that's the case. Again, there are some games I disagree with, but I'm sticking to these for the aforementioned reasons.
Good luck everybody.
This is not a joke. I handicapped these games and came up with certain selections. But I kept running into some trends and angles that worked against me too powerfully to ignore. Sometimes things don't work in sports that should work when you use common sense. For instance, you use talent evaluation AND motivational aspects, and you come up with Tampa Bay vs New Orleans last year in Sunday Night Football. Tampa was healthy, wanted and needed the win to chase 1 or 2 seed, and had learned Gruden's offense. They had already been knocked off by the Saints earlier in the year. They promptly go out and get beaten again. Next week, they face Pittsburgh at HOME. Line is low because Johnson is out. They wanted this one as well for the "paper champions" comment. They go out and get smoked!!
So then you jump off the TB bandwagon and they go out and win the Super Bowl. This happened with a great number of teams last year. Tennessee, Dallas, Philly, SF, Green Bay......the list went on and on. The teams were offensive teams, defensive teams. Road teams. Home teams. Good teams. Bad teams. The only thing they had in common was that they were favorites! Many of them favorites that made sense due to motivation and talent advantages. Yet they all went through a similar cycle as the one I just described.
I don't think this year will be all dogs all the time like last season. But I do think that the dogs will rebound shortly. So far this season, the favorites have covered to the tune of 18 - 10 - 2. That's 18 wins, 10 losses and two pushes (NYJ vs Wash and SF vs STL). I threw out the NE/BUF and STL/NYG games from week 1 because those were primarily "pick 'em" games. I know, I know....some books went to NE -1 and NYG -1 on that Sunday (which would have added 1 win and 1 loss to each side), but there was no concensus favorite with those games.
The bottom line is this. No matter how I have handicapped these contests, I will not go into the teeth of a 'dogs rebound. So I am going in with these wagers, plain and simple. I hate doing it this way, but I am doing it nonetheless. ALL DOGS THIS WEEK.
NYJ +7 -- 1.5 units
Cincy +5 -- 1.5 units
Jax + 7.5 -- 1.5 units
Detroit +4 -- 1.5 units
NO + 4.5 -- 1.5 units
ATL + 4 -- 1.5 units
Hou +7.5 -- 1.5 units
NYG + 3 (-125) -- 1.5 units
ARI + 7.5 -- 1.5 units
STL + 3.5 (-125) -- 1.5 units
SD +1 -- 1.5 units
Cle +7.5 (-120) -- 1.5 units
Buf + 3.5 (-125) -- 1.5 units
That's 1.65 to win 1.5 units on all except where the half point was bought. This isn't that risky since I am only wagering less than 2 units on each and the favs did so well last week (10-5-1). If I lose, that's life. But I am betting against the favs winning 3 weeks in a row. Really the only danger is if Vegas is lying and most people are taking the dogs so far this year, but I don't think that's the case. Again, there are some games I disagree with, but I'm sticking to these for the aforementioned reasons.
Good luck everybody.
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