Capping the NFL- What really works!

[Spearit]

To my fellow Cappers!


A fine feathered fellow on another site took the Top 8 teams in the NFL, or Top 25%, in a variety of statistical categories and combined their wins and losses, both straight up and against the spread. The belief was that the most important of the stats would post the best combined outright and ATS winning percentages.

Summary of Results
The chart below will list all of the analyzed statistics in their order of relation to pointspread success. As expected, the offensive yards per pass attempt has again proven to be of utmost importance. Until the game shifts again to a more grind-it-out, physical mentality that was prominent in the 70’s and early 80’s, I’d be willing to argue the importance of the PYA until I was blue in the face.

If you’ve been using rushing statistics and other misleading numbers to handicap your games, or even worse, buying picks from a so-called expert who cites a team’s ability to stop the run or its turnover numbers as reason for a selection, STOP NOW. There is still time to turn it around.

As far as going forward is concerned, if these numbers have shown us anything, perhaps it’s that Houston could be a team to “Play on” and Detroit a team to “Play against” the rest of the way. The Texans are a team that has not took advantage YET of its passing prowess where the pointspread in concerned, and the Lions have fared Ok thus far, but much ado to turnovers.

Final Combined Top 10 Teams Statistical Category Rankings

Now to understand the Rankings and why Passing is so important- Please look at No. 1 and No. 26!

Rank, Category, Top 10 Combined SU Record, ATS Record
1. YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT: 60-20 SU (75%), 55-24 ATS (70%)
2. POINTS PER GAME SCORED: 59-21 SU (74%), 53-25 ATS (68%)
3. TURNOVERS COMMITTED: 55-25 SU (69%), 53-25 ATS (68%)
4. TOTAL YARDS PER POINT: 57-23 SU (71%), 54-26 ATS (68%)
5. OPPONENT RUSHING ATTEMPTS/GAME: 61-19 SU (76%), 52-25 ATS (68%)
6. POINTS PER GAME ALLOWED: 59-21 SU (74%), 51-26 ATS (66%)
7. OPPONENT TOTAL YARDS PER POINT: 52-28 SU (65%), 50-26 ATS (66%)
8. TOTAL YARDS PER PLAY: 54-26 SU (68%), 49-27 ATS (65%)
9. OPPONENT YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT: 56-24 SU (70%), 49-28 ATS (64%)
10. TOTAL YARDS PER GAME: 54-26 SU (68%), 46-31 ATS (60%)
11. 3RD DOWN CONVERSION PERCENTAGE: 57-23 SU (71%), 47-32 ATS (60%)
13. PASSING YARDS PER GAME: 52-28 SU (65%), 45-31 ATS (59%)
12. TURNOVERS FORCED: 53-27 SU (66%), 45-31 ATS (59%)
14. OPPONENT RUSHING YARDS PER GAME: 53-27 SU (66%), 43-33 ATS (57%)
15. RUSHING ATTEMPTS PER GAME: 49-31 SU (61%), 42-33 ATS (56%)
16. RUSHING YARDS PER GAME: 48-32 SU (60%), 42-33 ATS (56%)
17. COMPLETION PERCENTAGE: 51-29 SU (64%), 43-34 ATS (56%)
18. OPPONENT TOTAL YARDS PER GAME: 53-27 SU (66%), 44-35 ATS (56%)
19. OPPONENT PASSING YARDS PER GAME: 42-38 SU (53%), 42-34 ATS (55%)
20. OPPONENT COMPLETION PERCENTAGE: 43-37 SU (54%), 38-36 ATS (51%)
21. OPPONENT 3RD DOWN CONVERSION %: 42-38 SU (53%), 39-37 ATS (51%)
22. OPPONENT TOTAL YARDS PER PLAY: 47-33 SU (59%), 40-39 ATS (51%)
23. YARDS PER RUSHING ATTEMPT: 41-39 SU (51%), 37-39 ATS (49%)
24. OPPONENT YARDS/RUSHING ATTEMPT: 42-38 SU (53%), 35-42 ATS (46%)
25. PASSING ATTEMPTS PER GAME: 38-42 SU (48%), 31-45 ATS (41%)
26. OPPONENT PASSING ATTEMPTS/GAME: 23-57 SU (29%), 25-51 ATS (33%)
AVERAGE TOTALS PER CATEGORY. : 50-30 SU (63%), 44.2-32.6 ATS (58%)

[TwoTonTony]

wow.......great stats......i still tend to go with uniform color.......74%

[Spearit]

wow.......great stats......i still tend to go with uniform color.......74%

Now thats funny! I don't care who ya are!

Remember this is one guys looked at the top 8 only. Other findings can come from this info or continued for a better look at what is working and what is not! We can only educate ourselves if we know what is real and what is a perception. And even then is it really real or a trend that could downturn- Meaning early on it may be this way and as the season goes it may be something different!