Tweet
This is something I posted in someones thread at a different forum. The thread was about how to know when to fade the public. I thought it might be helpful to post it here too.
I did find and play two games tonight.
Play Philly 76ers -2.5 67% on Wash
Play Texas Pam Am +4 73% on Pepperdine
The problem is because I'm in California, I played them just as they were ready to start and wasen't able to post these in time for anyone to follow. If something changes and I see another good public fade play for any game later tonight, I'll try to post it. Seattle could be a good fade play if more money gets bet on Seattle and the line stays at Indy -1.5 or goes lower . It's now only 61%
THIS IS WHAT I POSTED YESTERDAY
I've been fading this way for some time and for the most part, it works. I know a couple of the managers at sportsbook.com well enough that they are truthful with me and they told me the info they post is an accurate picture of the money wagered on each game. The only problem is that it is not updated very often and can be a half hour or so old.
All I know is that it works for me. I don't just play against the teams where all the money is going, it's not that easy, the line has to move toward those teams also. Just ask yourself, why would "Vegas" lower the line at least a point on a favorite when 75% of the money is already on that favorite. Answer that and you are on your way to making money.
I found three games tonight that fit the about example. There may have been more that I missed but tonight all the money was on Wake Forest, Tulane and Air Force while all three lines went down, instead of up. I faded those teams playing NC Charlotte +3.5, Buffalo +4.5 and Colorado +6. Not only did all three cover, all three won outright as dogs, although I didn't play the Money Line. Wish I had.
I did find and play two games tonight.
Play Philly 76ers -2.5 67% on Wash
Play Texas Pam Am +4 73% on Pepperdine
The problem is because I'm in California, I played them just as they were ready to start and wasen't able to post these in time for anyone to follow. If something changes and I see another good public fade play for any game later tonight, I'll try to post it. Seattle could be a good fade play if more money gets bet on Seattle and the line stays at Indy -1.5 or goes lower . It's now only 61%
THIS IS WHAT I POSTED YESTERDAY
I've been fading this way for some time and for the most part, it works. I know a couple of the managers at sportsbook.com well enough that they are truthful with me and they told me the info they post is an accurate picture of the money wagered on each game. The only problem is that it is not updated very often and can be a half hour or so old.
All I know is that it works for me. I don't just play against the teams where all the money is going, it's not that easy, the line has to move toward those teams also. Just ask yourself, why would "Vegas" lower the line at least a point on a favorite when 75% of the money is already on that favorite. Answer that and you are on your way to making money.
I found three games tonight that fit the about example. There may have been more that I missed but tonight all the money was on Wake Forest, Tulane and Air Force while all three lines went down, instead of up. I faded those teams playing NC Charlotte +3.5, Buffalo +4.5 and Colorado +6. Not only did all three cover, all three won outright as dogs, although I didn't play the Money Line. Wish I had.
Comment