Friday Trends and Indexes 11/30

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Friday, November 30

Good Luck on day #334 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

FOOTBALL
We are providing football trends & indexes that are available through Monday.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Friday

NFL trends to consider for Week 13......

-- Minnesota covered 10 of last 13 as home favorite.

-- Bears failed to cover their last six home games.

-- Falcons covered seven of their last eight road games.

-- Buffalo covered ten of last fourteen as an underdog.

-- Dolphins are 10-27 vs spread in last 37 home games.

-- Chargers covered one of last six as road favorite.

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[pm530]

Friday's List of 13: Facts, figures for a fun fall Friday........

13) Kurt Warner, in his two Super Bowl appearances, threw for 414-365 yards, the two highest single game totals in the history of the Super Bowl.

12) Al Luginbill was Warner's coach on Amsterdam Admirals in the old NFL Europe; he was Marshall Faulk's college coach at San Diego State, and was also the head coach of only XFL champions, when he coached the LA Xtreme. He has a son Tom, who is a commentator on CSTV.

11) Defensive lineman Mike Lodish is only player to play in six Super Bowls, four with Bills, two with the Broncos.

10) Carolina Panthers (6-3) have best winning percentage in the playoffs, of all the 32 current NFL franchises.

9) Eight of the 32 NFL teams have been in the Super Bowl one time; those teams are 3-5 in those games. Six teams have not made it to the big game yet.

8) From 1981-94, the NHL leader in goals had at least 60 every year; since then, only Mario Lemieux (69 in '96) had led NHL with more than 60 goals.

7) The last NHL player to get 100+ assists in season was the great Wayne Gretzky (122 in '91). Joe Thornton had 96 assists two years ago, the closest player to 100 assists since Gretzky.

6) LaDainian Tomlinson once had 406 rushing yards against Texas-El Paso in 1999, the most ever in a I-A game.

5) Former Hawai'i QB Timmy Chang, who is now in the CFL, completed 1,399 passes in his college career, 157 more than any other player in the history of college football.

4) Toledo once had a QB named Chuck Ealey who had career record of 35-0 as a starter, the best W-L record in college ball.

3) Of the eleven biggest college football stadiums, five are in the Southeastern Conference, the most fun college league.

2) There are four teams who have never played in the World Series: Tampa Bay-Seattle-Washington-Texas.

1) Cardinals have won 10 World Series titles, second-most in big league history; A's are third, with nine world titles.

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[pm530]

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 30

Game 305-306: Fresno State at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 89.826; New Mexico State 64.974
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 25; 63
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 13; 67
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-13); Under

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 1

Game 307-308: Army vs. Navy
Dunkel Ratings: Army 70.820; Navy 78.363
Dunkel Line: Navy by 7 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Navy by 14; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Army (+14); Under

Game 309-310: Louisiana Tech at Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 74.461; Nevada 80.580
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 6; 59
Vegas Line: Nevada by 8 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+8 1/2); Under

Game 311-312: UCLA at USC
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 96.504; USC 106.704
Dunkel Line: USC by 10; 40
Vegas Line: USC by 20; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+20); Under

Game 313-314: Oregon State at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 101.578; Oregon 99.272
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 2 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 315-316: California at Stanford
Dunkel Ratings: California 91.914; Stanford 86.022
Dunkel Line: California by 6; 47
Vegas Line: California by 13 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+13 1/2); Under

Game 317-318: Pittsburgh at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 83.892; West Virginia 116.213
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 32 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 26 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-26 1/2); Under

Game 319-320: Arizona at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 98.588; Arizona State 102.062
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 3 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 7 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+7 1/2); Over

Game 321-322: Washington at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 91.091; Hawaii 102.529
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 11 1/2; 67
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 14; 74
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+14); Under

Game 323-324: Florida Atlantic at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 73.152; Troy 93.380
Dunkel Line: Troy by 20; 55
Vegas Line: Troy by 15; 65
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-15); Under

Game 325-326: North Texas at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 65.867; Florida International 57.433
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 8 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: North Texas by 2; 64
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-2); Over

Game 327-328: Central Michigan vs. Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 74.729; Miami (OH) 76.383
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 1 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 3 1/2; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+3 1/2); Over

Game 329-330: Tulsa at Central Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 84.650; Central Florida 93.529
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 9; 69
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 6 1/2; 75
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-6 1/2); Under

Game 331-332: Virginia Tech vs. Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 99.341; Virginia Tech 100.905
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 1 1/2; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 4 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+4 1/2); Under

Game 333-334: Tennessee vs. LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 99.377; LSU 103.251
Dunkel Line: LSU by 4; 65
Vegas Line: LSU by 7 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7 1/2); Over

Game 335-336: Oklahoma vs. Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 106.250; Missouri 112.114
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 6; 62
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 3; 67
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+3); Under

Game 367-368: BYU at San Diego State
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 98.295; San Diego State 84.063
Dunkel Line: BYU by 14; 52
Vegas Line: BYU by 16; 55
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+16); Under

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[pm530]

College Football – Long Sheet

NCAAF
Long Sheet


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Friday, November 30
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FRESNO ST (7 - 4) at NEW MEXICO ST (4 - 8) - 11/30/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 19-38 ATS (-22.8 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 1
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ARMY (3 - 8) vs. NAVY (7 - 4) - 12/1/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
NAVY is 96-67 ATS (+22.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 91-62 ATS (+22.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
NAVY is 47-19 ATS (+26.1 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
NAVY is 43-20 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NAVY is 96-67 ATS (+22.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 1-1 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOUISIANA TECH (5 - 6) at NEVADA (5 - 6) - 12/1/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEVADA is 2-0 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 2-0 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UCLA (6 - 5) at USC (9 - 2) - 12/1/2007, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 1-1 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
USC is 1-1 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OREGON ST (7 - 4) at OREGON (8 - 3) - 12/1/2007, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON is 2-0 against the spread versus OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
OREGON is 1-1 straight up against OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CALIFORNIA (6 - 5) at STANFORD (3 - 8) - 12/1/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
CALIFORNIA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.
STANFORD is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 1-1 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
CALIFORNIA is 2-0 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 7) at W VIRGINIA (10 - 1) - 12/1/2007, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
W VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (5 - 6) at ARIZONA ST (9 - 2) - 12/1/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA ST is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA ST is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (4 - 8) at HAWAII (11 - 0) - 12/1/2007, 11:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 47-73 ATS (-33.3 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FLA ATLANTIC (6 - 5) at TROY (8 - 3) - 12/1/2007, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TROY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
TROY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
TROY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 2-0 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NORTH TEXAS (2 - 9) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (0 - 11) - 12/1/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NORTH TEXAS is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
NORTH TEXAS is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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C MICHIGAN (7 - 5) vs. MIAMI OHIO (6 - 6) - 12/1/2007, 11:00 AM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TULSA (9 - 3) at UCF (9 - 3) - 12/1/2007, 12:00 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 1-1 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 1-1 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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VIRGINIA TECH (10 - 2) vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (10 - 2) - 12/1/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 31-9 ATS (+21.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-1 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (9 - 3) vs. LSU (10 - 2) - 12/1/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons
LSU is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA (10 - 2) vs. MISSOURI (11 - 1) - 12/1/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
MISSOURI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
MISSOURI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISSOURI is 1-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BYU (9 - 2) at SAN DIEGO ST (4 - 7) - 12/1/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
BYU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

College Football – Short Sheet

NCAAF
Short Sheet


Friday, November 30th

Fresno State at New Mexico State, 8:00 EST ESPN2
Fresno State: 5-1 ATS off a win
New Mexico State: 2-12 ATS off a home game


Saturday, December 1st

Army vs. Navy, 12:00 EST CBS
Army: 0-6 ATS after allowing 42+ points
Navy: 28-7 ATS off a home win

Louisiana Tech at Nevada, 4:00 EST
Louisiana Tech: 4-13 ATS off a bye week
Nevada: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite

UCLA at USC, 4:30 EST ABC
UCLA: 8-1 ATS as an underdog
USC: 5-14 ATS off 3+ wins

Oregon State at Oregon, 4:30 EST ESPN2
Oregon State: 0-7 ATS off a win by 17+ points
Oregon: 6-1 ATS playing on artificial turf

California at Stanford, 7:00 EST VER
California: 24-11 ATS away off a combined score of 60+ points
Stanford: 2-10 ATS in home games

(TC) Pittsburgh at West Virginia, 7:45 EST ESPN
Pittsburgh: 9-31 ATS off a home loss
West Virginia: 12-4 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

Arizona at Arizona State, 8:00 EST ESPN2
Arizona: 8-0 ATS away off 3+ conference games
Arizona State: 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

(TC) Washington at Hawaii, 11:30 EST ESPN
Washington: 12-3 ATS off a loss as a home favorite
Hawaii: 6-1 Under off 7+ wins

Added Games:

Florida Atlantic at Troy, 2:00 EST
Florida Atl: 2-7 ATS off a conference win
Troy: 6-1 ATS off a straight up win

North Texas at Florida International, 7:00 EST
North Texas: 10-3 Under off a win
Florida Int: 2-12 ATS off 4+ losses

Championship Games:

MAC Championship
Detroit, Michigan
Central Michigan vs. Miami OH, 11:00am EST ESPN2
Central Michigan: 12-1 ATS off a road game
Miami OH: 3-10 ATS off an Over

Conference USA Championship
Orlando, Florida
Tulsa vs. Central Florida, 12:00 EST
Tulsa: 1-9 ATS after scoring 37+ points
Central Florida: 6-1 ATS off BB Unders

ACC Championship
Jacksonville, Florida
Virginia Tech vs. Boston College, 1:00 EST ABC
Virginia Tech: 7-17 ATS off BB conference wins by 10+ points
Boston College: 6-0 ATS as an underdog

SEC Championship
Atlanta Georgia
Tennessee vs. LSU, 4:00 EST CBS
Tennessee: 5-1 ATS off BB wins by 6 or less points
LSU: 3-11 ATS vs. conference opponents

Big 12 Championship
San Antonio, Texas
Oklahoma vs. Missouri, 8:00 EST ABC
Oklahoma: 6-17 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Missouri: 6-0 ATS with a total of 63+ points

Write-In Game:

BYU at San Diego State, 6:30 EST
BYU: 18-6 Under off BB Unders
San Diego State: 6-0 ATS at home off a conference loss


** (TC) Denotes Time Change

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[pm530]

College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up


Friday, November 30

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Friday’s Game

Fresno State's 45-29 win vs Kansas State last week eleveates the WAC to where Hawai'i might get bid to Sugar Bowl, which helps whole conference. Bulldogs are 2-3 on road this season, beating Idaho 37-24, Nevada 49-41; they're 2-2 vs spread as favorite and allowed average of 31.8 ppg in last four games- in their last three games, they averaged 224.3 rushing yards/game. New Mexico St lost last four games, allowing average of 44 ppg; they're 2-5 vs spread as underdog; five of last seven losses are by 18+ points. LY, Fresno State struggled to 23-18 home win over the Aggies.

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[pm530]

College Football - Tips & Trends

NCAAF
Tips and Trends


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Tips and Trends
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Friday, November 30

Fresno State at New Mexico State (ESPN2 | 8 PM ET)

Undefeated in 13 previous meetings against the New Mexico State Aggies, the Fresno State Bulldogs try to maintain perfection in Las Cruces, as the squads collide in the regular-season finale for both WAC programs. The Bulldogs, who finished a disappointing 4-8 a year ago and failed to make it to the postseason, are back on track for coach Pat Hill in 2007. The squad is 5-2 in WAC play - losing only to Hawaii and Boise State - and is making their case for a postseason bowl bid. Fresno State has won two out of its last three games, and in those three games the offense is averaging 38 points per game while compiling over 440 total yards per. This is great news considering New Mexico State's defense has been giving up 42 per game over their last three. EDGE: FRESNO STATE
Fresno State's defense is currently ranked eighth in the conference and 107th in the nation in turnover margin but has made up for this in sacks and tackles for loss. The Bulldogs are second in the WAC in both categories and ranked 14th in the nation, averaging three sacks and eight tackles for loss per game. This is more good news for the Bulldogs, as NMSU QB Chase Holbrook has been carrying the offense with his 25 touchdowns, but thanks to a non-existent running game he will be holding onto the ball more, attempting 53 passes per game over his last three. EDGE: FRESNO STATE
New Mexico's offense has been solid at home, averaging 40 points per game with over 500 total yards per contest. Holbrook is the offense and has also been good at home, throwing for over 400+ yards in three home games this season. Fresno State's secondary hasn't been able to pick off many passes this year, ranking 107th in the nation in turnover margin. Look for Holbrook to air it out all game long. EDGE: NEW MEXICO STATE & OVER
Fresno State is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU win.
Fresno State is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games against a losing team.
Fresno State is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 Friday games.
New Mexico State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games following a bye week.
New Mexico State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games.
New Mexico State is 1-11-1 ATS in its last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Fresno State is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings dating back to '88.


Saturday, December 1

Miami (Ohio) vs. Central Michigan at Detroit (ESPN | 11 AM ET)

The Central Michigan Chippewas have finished the year with a 6-1 conference ledger, and are led by quarterback Dan LaFevour, who was recently named the MAC Offensive Player of the Year. He has completed 66 percent of his throws for 3,175 yards while pacing the team with 838 rushing yards. The RedHawks defense has been horrible against the run, allowing 160 yards per game, and is fresh off giving up 38 points to Ohio. EDGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN
The Chippewas defense has been the Achilles' heel for the team throughout the season, as they are allowing 38 points per game. The unit has struggled against the pass, as well as the run, surrendering 287 ypg through the air, while being pounded for 175 ypg on the ground. Miami-Ohio's offense is coming off one of their better offensive performance totaling close to 400 total yards of offense, and this Chippewas non-existent defense will certainly help matters. EDGE: MIAMI-OHIO & OVER
Miami-Ohio is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games against a winning team.
Miami-Ohio is 0-4 ATS its last 4 conference games.
Central Michigan is 22-7-3 ATS in its last 32 games overall.
Central Michigan is 15-3-2 ATS in its last 20 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 7-0 in Central Michigan's last 7 games overall.



Navy at Army (CBS | 12 PM ET)

Navy heads into this contest riding a three-game winning streak, and currently has won five consecutive meetings against Army. It's no secret what the Midshipmen plan to do on offense, run. The Middies currently lead the nation with 358 ypg on the ground and out of the 54 touchdowns scored, 47 have come via the run. The team's leading rusher and quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada has done a tremendous job this season, and is expected to be healthy enough to play with a bruised knee. Army's defense has been horrible this year, allowing 30 ppg, along with getting shredded to the tone of 229 rushing yards per game. Look for Navy to run the ball with great success. BIG EDGE: NAVY
The Black Knights are coming off their best offensive performance of the season, racking up 491 total yards of production en route to a 39-point showing. This is great news for an offensive unit which has struggled at times, with QB Carson Williams completing 26-of-38 passes for 328 yards and three scores. Even better news for this Army offense is the fact they will be facing a horrific defense in Navy. The Midshipmen are currently allowing 40 points per game, along with 460 total yards per game. EDGE: ARMY & OVER
Navy is 42-20-1 ATS in its last 63 games against a losing team.
Navy is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5+ points.
Army is 4-9-1 ATS in its their last 14 games as an underdog.
Army is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a bye week.
Army is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 meetings at Navy.



Tulsa at Central Florida (ESPN | 12 PM ET)

This is essentially a home game in the Conference USA title game for Central Florida, which beat Tulsa 44-23 on this same field back on October 20th. UCF RB Kevin Smith bounced back from a season-low 55 yards by totaling 170 on the ground and scoring three touchdowns on 33 carries, and he now needs just 179 yards to surpass former USC great Marcus Allen for the second-best season in NCAA major college history. Smith is averaging 180.3 yards per game. EDGE: CENTRAL FLORIDA
Tulsa QB Paul Smith had his worst game of the season in the last meeting with the Knights, throwing four of his 16 interceptions despite tossing three of his 39 touchdowns. Central Florida comes into this game with a league-best 20 interceptions. EDGE: CENTRAL FLORIDA
Tulsa is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win.
Tulsa is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
Tulsa is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games against a winning home team.
Central Florida is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 conference games.
Central Florida is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 home games.
The UNDER is 15-1-1 in Central Florida's last 17 games after allowing 280 passing yards previously.



#6 Virginia Tech vs. #11 Boston College at Jacksonville (ABC | 1 PM ET)

This is an obvious revenge spot for the Hokies after BC left Blacksburg with a 14-10 victory in the last meeting back on October 25th. The Eagles were unbeaten at the time and got two touchdown passes from Matt Ryan in the last three minutes to pull off the win. Virginia Tech has won four straight since then, averaging 36 points per game. "There's not much more we could ask for," Hokies QB Sean Glennon said. EDGE: VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies are coming off arguably their best offensive performance at Virginia in a 33-21 win, as they successfully utilized both Glennon and true freshman Tyrod Taylor for the first time. Glennon threw for 260 yards while Taylor scored the team's first and last touchdowns of the game. That balance helped RB Brandon Ore produce his first 100-yard game of the season, totaling 147 yards on 31 carries. BIG EDGE: VIRGINIA TECH
The winner of this game gets the ACC's BCS berth and is likely headed to the Orange Bowl.
Virginia Tech is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 conference games.
Virginia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games in December.
Boston College is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games against a winning team.
Boston College is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
Virginia Tech is 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings.



#14 Tennessee vs. #7 LSU at Atlanta (CBS | 4 PM ET)

Speculation continues to surround LSU head coach Les Miles, especially following his team's 50-48 loss in triple overtime last Friday. Miles has been obviously angered by the continuous rumors that he is headed to Michigan after this season, and now his players may have a serious concern after seeing their dream of playing in the BCS title game go up in smoke. "Right now, there's a goal of our football team taken off the board and it's sad," Miles said. "(After this), we'll be sick." There is now added speculation that defensive coordinator Bo Pelini is the top candidate for the Nebraska head coaching job since Bill Callahan was fied. EDGE: TENNESSEE
Tennessee has been playing to save head coach Phillip Fulmer's job, and it certainly appears safe after the Vols have reeled off five straight wins since suffering a 41-17 loss at Alabama. "We were 1-2 and everyone had given us up for dead," Fulmer said. "We had one of those Sunday night player meetings, where you pound on the podium and tell them what they need to do to be a better football team, and to their credit, they have listened." EDGE: TENNESSEE
The winner of this game gets the SEC's BCS berth and is likely headed to the Sugar Bowl.
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against a winning team.
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 conference games.
LSU is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a SU loss.
LSU is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall.
The UNDER is 24-9-2 in Tennessee's last 25 games following an ATS win.



UCLA at #8 USC (ABC | 4:30 PM ET)

The Trojans will be looking to exact big-time revenge on their intracity rivals after getting knocked out of last year's BCS title game with a shocking loss to UCLA at the Rose Bowl. USC head coach Pete Carroll is 26-1 all-time in November, with that lone loss keeping him from a perfect record. The Trojans will be looking to win their sixth Pac-10 title in a row and advance to the Rose Bowl with a victory. BIG EDGE: USC
The Bruins have an outside shot at winning the Pac-10, as another win over USC combined with a loss by Arizona State to Arizona would give them the conference crown. The team's chances will likely hinge on who plays QB against the Trojans, with Ben Olson possibly taking over as the starter. Olson saw his first action since October 6th in a 16-0 win over Oregon last Saturday in relief of Osaar Rasshan, who started but did not complete a pass on seven attempts to go along with an interception. EDGE: USC
UCLA is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games as an underdog.
UCLA is 11-5 ATS in its last in its last 16 games overall.
UCLA is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 meetings at USC.
USC is 27-13 in its last 40 games following an ATS win.
USC is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games as a 10.5+ favorite.



Oregon State at #17 Oregon (ESPN2 | 4:30 PM ET)

Oregon senior QB Brady Leaf (ankle) is not expected to start on Saturday. Quarterbacks Cody Kempt and Justin Roper are the only options. Last week Kempt was 6-of-23 yards for 51 yards with two interceptions while Roper was 1-of-4 for 8 yards with one pick. Usually, the Ducks could just lean on RB Jonathan Stewart, but he is nursing a toe injury. EDGE: OREGON STATE
Oregon State head coach Mike Riley has already warned his team about a possible "trap game" due to Oregon's QB situation. The Beavers have also been working on silent counts while piping in crowd noise during this week's practice to help prepare for the Eugene faithful. EDGE: OREGON STATE
Oregon State is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games following an ATS win.
Oregon State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against a winning team.
Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after less than 20 points previously.
Oregon is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall.
The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.



Pittsburgh at #2 West Virginia (ESPN | 7:45 PM ET)

The 100th edition of the Backyard Brawl has special meaning to the Mountaineers this year since this matchup with Pittsburgh is likely the only thing standing in the way of an appearance in the BCS title games. A victory would essentially guarantee a spot in the Top 2 for the Mountainees, and QB Pat White said he and his teammates will be more than ready. "It's the biggest game in my lifetime," White said. "I don't think it will be tough to be focused. This team is focused. We were today, and it will carry into next week. We will be ready." BIG EDGE: WEST VIRGINIA
Pittsburgh RB LeSean McCoy is just 81 yards short of the Big East record for rushing yards by a freshman, and he has already broken Tony Dorsett's freshman school record for touchdowns with 14. The Panthers need a win to avoid their worst season since 1998. SLIGHT EDGE: PITTSBURGH
Pitt is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 games following a SU loss.
Pitt is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 conference games.
Pitt is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
West Virginia is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 games after accumulating less than 170 yards previously.
West Virginia is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games following an ATS win.


#9 Oklahoma vs. #1 Missouri at San Antonio (ABC | 8 PM ET)

The top-ranked Tigers can secure a spot in the BCS title game with a victory, but they will need to avenge their only loss of the season to a team playing the ultimate spoiler role. To make matters worse, the Sooners will be extra fired up after Mizzou players said they "let one slip away" in the first meeting, turning the ball over twice after holding a 24-23 lead on Oklahoma in an eventual 41-31 loss. "You can spin it however you want but I know this: When we're kicking off with 2:20 left in the game, we're up three possessions - I'll take that every week ," Sooners head coach Bob Stoops said. "If that's giving it to us, then we'll take it every time." BIG EDGE: OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma held Missouri to a season-low 57 yards in the first meeting, but the Tigers without senior RB Tony Temple. Since then, they have won six in a row, and Temple has scored five of his eight touchdowns in the last five. "Having Tony back is great," Mizzou head coach Gary Pinkel said. "We never came out of that game saying we wished we had Tony Temple, we don't do that around here, and other players I thought went in and did a good job. But Tony, he can make a huge impact. There's no question he makes us a better team." EDGE: MISSOURI
Mizzou is the only team in the country that has scored at least 31 points in every game this season. The key again will likely be the play of junior QB Chase Daniel, who has thrown 10 touchdowns without an interception in the last three games. Daniel tossed a season-high two INTs in the last meeting with the Sooners, who rank second in the Big 12 with 18 picks this season. SLIGHT EDGE: OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma starting RB DeMarco Murray remains out with a dislocated kneecap but backup Allen Patrick has proven to be more than capable, also filling in for NFL star Adrian Peterson this time a year ago after he suffered a broken collarbone. Patrick rushed for a season-high 202 yards and two touchdowns last week against Oklahoma State. EDGE: OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.
Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games after scoring 40+ points previously.
Missouri is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games overall.
Missouri is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 neutral site games.
The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.


Arizona at #13 Arizona State (ESPN2 | 8 PM ET)

The Sun Devils can still win the Pac-10's BCS bid if they beat Arizona and USC loses to UCLA. However, ASU QB Rudy Carpenter believes his team needs to simply focus on beating their intrastate rival and not worry about what bowl they're playing in. "We are just trying to win as many games as we can," Carpenter said. "I don't think we are really looking at the big bowl scenarios because we can't really control any of that." Arizona State has won the last two meetings along with six of the last eight. EDGE: ARIZONA STATE
Arizona has not played since stunning previous #2 Oregon back on November 15th. The Wildcats can become bowl eligible with a victory and might enjoy more success if they can get to Carpenter, who has been sacked 20 times in the last three games. Only Syracuse and Notre Dame have allowed more sacks than Arizona State this season with 49. EDGE: ARIZONA
This matchup has extra meaning for Arizona QB Willie Tuitama, who was foreced out of last year's game after taking a hit to the head. Tuitama completed 6-of-10 passes for 36 yards with one touchdown, and he is tied for the Pac-10 lead in TD passes this season with 26. EDGE: ARIZONA
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 conference games.
Arizona is 10-27 ATS in its last 37 games following an ATS win.
Arizona State is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against a losing team.
Arizona State is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as a 3.5-10 point favorite.
The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.


Washington at #12 Hawaii (ESPN2 | 11:30 PM ET)

Hawaii will be looking to avoid a major letdown and remain the only unbeaten team in the country following the biggest win in school history last Friday against Boise State. The Warriors will need to win this game to ensure a spot in the BCS Top 12, which is required to qualify for an at-large BCS bid. "To be here 11-0 with a ring and the WAC championship, I mean it seems like a fairy tale," Hawaii QB Colt Brennan said. EDGE: HAWAII
Brennan remains a candidate for the Heisman Trophy after throwing for 495 yards and five touchdowns against the Broncos, breaking the career record for most TD passes with 126 in the process. "(Brennan) was the best college football player in America last year and he still is this year," Hawaii head coach June Jones said. "If he plays good next week and we win it, he should win the Heisman Trophy." EDGE: HAWAII
Washington got starting QB Jake Locker back from a neck injury last week, but it wasn't enough to beat intrastate rival Washington State. The Huskies fell 42-35 despite Locker throwing for 224 yards and running for 103 to go along with three touchdowns. EDGE: HAWAII
Washington is 5-12-3 ATS in its last 20 non-conference games.
Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games against a winning home team.
Hawaii is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 home games against a losing road team.
Hawaii is 19-8-1 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 21-6-1 in Hawaii's last 28 games following an ATS win.

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[pm530]

College Football – Line Moves

NCAAF
Line Moves


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Early NCAAF line moves – Week 14
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In nine weeks of tracking the most significant early line movements as an indicator of weekend success there have only been two weekends where playing on the games with the sharpest early action would have turned a profit. Last weekend was not one of them.

Clearly you should continue to fade and fade hard. The early-week steam moves are just 19-27 this season for a bankroll-busting 41.3-percent clip.

With that in mind, here are the college football games with the most significant early movements heading into Championship weekend:


UCLA at Southern California (4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 1)

Open: USC -16

Current: USC -20

Last year this game was for a ticket to the BCS Championship Game for the Trojans. This year it holds an invite to the Rose Bowl in the balance. It looks like oddsmakers are anticipating USC to dole out a large dose of revenge for UCLA’s upset last season. Further complicating the line is the health of Bruins QB Drew Olson, who can be spotty even when healthy. If there is no Olson, or if he can’t go the whole 60, this number will be covered with ease. If he does play, and plays well, then I’m not opposed to cashing on the Bruins – again.


Washington at Hawaii (11:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 1)

Open: Hawaii -10

Current: Hawaii -14

Beware the letdown game. The Warriors are coming off the contest that they had built up as the defining point in their season. Now they have to man up and take on a Huskies team that is not only full of seniors but also has nothing to lose. Hawaii is just 2-6 against the spread (ATS) in its last eight games against the Pac-10 and Washington was good enough to beat Boise State by two touchdowns earlier this season.


Florida Atlantic at Troy (2 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 1)

Open: Troy -15

Current: Troy -16 ½

There aren’t a lot of heavy movers this week. But in a matchup of the Sun Belt's No. 1 and No. 2 teams I was not only a little shocked to see such a large number, but also a little surprised the early action was on the Trojans.

The numbers suggest that it does make sense. Troy has been an ATM machine this season, covering four straight and eight of 10, and the Trojans are a stellar 13-3 against the number over the past two years. Also, FAU is just 2-10 ATS as a road dog. Be wary either way with this one.

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[pm530]

College Football – Cheat Sheet

NCAAF
NCAAF cheat sheet


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College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet
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Virginia Tech vs. Boston College (+4 ½)

Why Hokies cover: Virginia Tech has won, and covered, in four straight games and six of its last seven. The Hokies allow the second-fewest points per game in the nation (15.4) and the fourth-fewest yards (285.3).

Why Eagles cover: Boston College is averaging over 100 yards more per game than the Hokies. Earlier this season, the Eagles recorded a 14-10 come-from-behind win at Virginia Tech. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against the Hokies.

Total (46 ½): The over is 4-1 in the Hokies’ last five games as a favorite.


Tennessee vs. Louisiana State (-7 ½)

Why Volunteers cover: Tennessee has covered in four of its last five games. Quarterback Erik Ainge threw for a career-high 397 yards and a school-record seven TDs in last week’s 52-50 win over Kentucky.

Why Tigers cover: LSU covered in two of its last three meetings with Tennessee. The Tigers rank third in the nation in total defense (280.1 yards per game), while their offense is scoring 40.2 points per contest behind QB Matt Flynn.

Total (60 ½): The over is 7-0 in the Tigers’ last seven games overall.


Oregon State at Oregon (N/A)

Why Beavers cover: Oregon will be without star quarterback Dennis Dixon, who suffered a season-ending injury in the loss to Arizona. The Beavers have covered in five of their last six games.

Why Ducks cover: Oregon is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Has covered the spread in three of its last four against Oregon State. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams.

Total (N/A): The over is 5-0 in the last five games between Oregon and Oregon State.


UCLA at Southern California (-20 ½)

Why Bruins cover: UCLA has covered the spread in two of its last three games against USC, and in two straight games overall. Quarterback Ben Olsen, who has 1,040 yards and seven TDs this season, returned from injury in last week’s win over Oregon.

Why Trojans cover: USC is sixth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 16.7 points per game. The Bruins, meanwhile, are second-last in the Pac-10 in scoring (24.4), and scored just one touchdown last week.

Total (46 ½): The under is 8-1 in the Trojans’ last nine games overall.


Brigham Young at San Diego State (+15)

Why Cougars cover: Brigham Young has won 16 straight conference games, including five of its last six against San Diego State. It also covered the spread in five of those six games.

Why Aztecs cover: San Diego State has covered in four of its last five. The last time the Cougars traveled to San Diego (2005), the Aztecs recorded an impressive 31-10 home win to cover a 3-point spread.

Total (55 ½): The over is 4-0 in the Aztecs last five conference games and last five overall.


Pittsburgh at West Virginia (-28)

Why Panthers cover: Freshman running back LeSean McCoy ran for three TDs last week, and is one short of the single-season record for a freshman. The Panthers have covered the spread in their last two road games.

Why Mountaineers cover: Quarterback Pat White had one of the best games of his career against the Panthers last season, running for 220 yards and two touchdowns and passing for 204 yards and another two scores. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Pittsburgh.

Total (58 ½): The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Virginia.


Oklahoma vs. Missouri (+3)

Why Sooners cover: Oklahoma recorded a 41-31 win over Missouri on Oct. 13, the Tigers’ only loss of the season. Sooners quarterback Sam Bradford has thrown for an NCAA freshman-record 32 touchdowns this season.

Why Tigers cover: Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel, a serious contender for the Heisman Trophy, has thrown for a career-best 3,951 yards and 33 touchdowns. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Total (67): The under is 13-3-1 in Oklahoma’s last 17 conference games.


Arizona at Arizona State (-7)

Why Wildcats cover: Arizona has won three in a row and covered the spread each time. QB Willie Tuitama threw for 1,117 yards and 10 TDs during this streak.

Why Sun Devils cover: Arizona State is second in the conference with 33.3 points per game. QB Rudy Carpenter is third in the Pac-10 in yards (2,768) and touchdowns (21). The Sun Devils are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record.

Total (57 ½): The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams.


Washington at Hawaii (-14)

Why Huskies cover: Starting quarterback Jake Locker returned from injury to throw 224 yards and a touchdown last week. Locker has thrown for 1,920 yards and 14 touchdowns this season.

Why Warriors cover: Hawaii is the only unbeaten team left in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Warriors rank third in the nation in total offense (528.5 yards per game) and are outscoring opponents by an average of 23.4 points.

Total (74): The under is 5-1 in Hawaii’s last six home games.

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[pm530]

NCAAF
Preview


Friday, November 30

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What bettors need to know: Fresno State at New Mexico State
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Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico State Aggies (+13, 66.5)

Friday’s game from Aggie Memorial Stadium will be televised on ESPN2. Kickoff is 6 p.m. local, 8 p.m. ET.

Raindrops keep fallin’ on their heads

It’s rare enough for the worldwide leader to set foot in Las Cruces. It might be even odder for the Aggies to play a home game in the rain. But both will likely occur Friday night. The forecast for Las Cruces gives a 60 percent chance of light showers through the latter stretches of the game. A wind from the south measuring 10-12 mph also sets the scene for a mildly messy game.

The rain also fell in Fresno State’s last visit to Las Cruces. NMStatesports.com reports the 2005 contest was the first Aggies home game played in rain since 1993. The Bulldogs won 37-7 as 28-point favorites two seasons ago, contributing to New Mexico State’s 0-12 record that year.

What, me motivated?

Fresno State has already clinched a bowl berth. Last week’s convincing win over Kansas State was the Bulldogs’ seventh of the season, leaving them in prime position for a New Mexico Bowl berth (possibly a Hawaii Bowl appearance if Hawaii cracks the BCS equation).

Fresno State head coach Pat Hill, however, tried to suggest on Monday that his team will keep its motivation through Friday night.

“I really do care about getting our eighth win. I want to go from 4-8 to 8-4," Hill told reporters at his weekly WAC conference. "I read all the time that when another team does that it's a miraculous turnaround. To me, that's what we're supposed to do."

Potential Fresno State backers are forgiven for their timidity. As bad as the Bulldogs’ straight-up record was a year ago, their 1-11 against-the-spread mark was the nation’s worst.

New Mexico State is out of the bowl scene but can record its first win in school history against the Bulldogs. The Aggies have lost all of their 13 games against Fresno State.

Using the run to set up the backdoor?

Fresno State is more comfortable running the ball than passing. The Bulldogs ran the ball in more than two-thirds of their offensive plays during their five WAC wins and will look to do the same Friday.

That will especially be the case if NFL prospect Bear Pascoe can’t play due to his lingering ankle concerns. Pascoe is quarterback Tom Brandstater’s top target when healthy. If Pascoe is sidelined, backup tight end Jesus Tapia and his excellent run-blocking skills come to the forefront.

Keep an eye on the second-half line if the favored Bulldogs build a decent lead as expected. Fresno State has run twice as many run plays as pass plays three times this season and was outscored down the stretch in each of them.

The Bulldogs ran the ball in 68.6 percent of their plays at Nevada and were outscored 21-7 in the fourth quarter. Fresno State’s numbers were nearly identical at Idaho (68.1 percent runs, outscored 17-6 in the last 17 minutes) and against Utah State (72.3 percent running plays, outscored 20-7 in the second half).

Cut to the Chase

A backdoor cover is more likely when the losing underdog team has a quality quarterback. New Mexico State’s Chase Holbrook fits the bill. He’s connected on at least 69.7 percent of his passes in nine of his 10 healthy games this season.

Holbrook’s other passing numbers are slightly down from his first season in Las Cruces. Injuries to his receivers are partially to blame. Speedster Chris Williams is still sidelined with a broken collarbone and Derek Dubois missed the Aggies’ last contest with a knee sprain. A.J. Harris leads New Mexico State in catches, but he’s a possession receiver.

Without his deep threats, Holbrook’s yards-per-attempt average in WAC play has dropped from 8.2 in 2006 to 7 this season.

New Mexico State has been a double-digit underdog three times this season and Holbrook couldn’t lead the Aggies to a backdoor cover in any of those games (though in his defense, Holbrook missed the majority of the game at Boise State).

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 2

Game 337-338: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 122.793; St. Louis 124.042
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4; 42
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4); Under

Game 339-340: Buffalo at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.104; Washington 129.111
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Washington by 6; 37
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+6); Over

Game 341-342: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 127.897; Minnesota 135.679
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 8; 49
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over

Game 343-344: Houston at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 127.735; Tennessee 127.515
Dunkel Line: Even; 38
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4; 42
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+4); Under

Game 345-346: Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 138.389; Indianapolis 143.401
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7); Under

Game 347-348: NY Jets at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 122.702; Miami 127.504
Dunkel Line: Miami by 5; 32
Vegas Line: Miami by 1; 38
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1); Under

Game 349-350: San Diego at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 134.437; Kansas City 131.143
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+5 1/2); Over

Game 351-352: Seattle at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 129.959; Philadelphia 131.823
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over

Game 353-354: San Francisco at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 120.807; Carolina 126.957
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 6; 38
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Over

Game 355-356: Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 133.216; New Orleans 133.682
Dunkel Line: Even; 39
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Under

Game 357-358: Cleveland at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.410; Arizona 129.225
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 60
Vegas Line: Arizona by 1; 52
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+1); Over

Game 359-360: Denver at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.919; Oakland 127.498
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3 1/2); Under

Game 361-362: NY Giants at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 129.346; Chicago 132.112
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3; 40
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2 1/2); Under

Game 363-364: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.795; Pittsburgh 139.407
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12; 42
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 48
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7); Under


MONDAY, DECEMBER 3

Game 365-366: New England at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: New England 152.649; Baltimore 125.195
Dunkel Line: New England by 27 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 20 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-20 1/2); Over

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Sunday, December 2
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ATLANTA (3 - 8) at ST LOUIS (2 - 9) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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BUFFALO (5 - 6) at WASHINGTON (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 41-66 ATS (-31.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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DETROIT (6 - 5) at MINNESOTA (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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HOUSTON (5 - 6) at TENNESSEE (6 - 5) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 4-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 5-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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JACKSONVILLE (8 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 2) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NY JETS (2 - 9) at MIAMI (0 - 10) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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SAN DIEGO (6 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 7) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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SEATTLE (7 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 8) at CAROLINA (4 - 7) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CAROLINA is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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TAMPA BAY (7 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-58 ATS (-27.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) in home games in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-75 ATS (-33.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-75 ATS (-33.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CLEVELAND (7 - 4) at ARIZONA (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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DENVER (5 - 6) at OAKLAND (3 - 8) - 12/2/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 22-47 ATS (-29.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NY GIANTS (7 - 4) at CHICAGO (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 18-39 ATS (-24.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CINCINNATI (4 - 7) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 3) - 12/2/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Monday, December 3
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NEW ENGLAND (11 - 0) at BALTIMORE (4 - 7) - 12/3/2007, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


Sunday, December 2nd

Atlanta at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Atlanta: 6-1 ATS off BB Overs
St. Louis: 1-6 ATS off an Under

Buffalo at Washington, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 7-2 ATS off BB Overs
Washington: 0-5 ATS off BB games with 400+ total yards

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 EST
Detroit: 18-6 ATS off 3+ ATS losses
Minnesota: 2-11 ATS off a win by 14+ points as an underdog

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Houston: 6-0 ATS away off a road loss
Tennessee: 9-22 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 0-7 ATS away off a home win by 21+ points
Indianapolis: 12-4 ATS in dome stadiums

NY Jets at Miami, 1:00 EST
NY Jets: 21-7 ATS vs. Miami
Miami: 2-12 ATS vs. division opponents

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 1-6 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Kansas City: 5-1 ATS off a division loss

Seattle at Philadelphia , 1:00 EST
Seattle: 15-35 ATS off a division win
Philadelphia: 22-10 ATS vs. NFC West opponents

San Francisco at Carolina , 1:00 EST
San Francisco: 13-2 ATS off 3+ division games
Carolina: 2-10 ATS in home games

(TC) Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 4:15 EST
Tampa Bay: 9-1 Under off BB wins
New Orleans: 2-9 ATS as a home favorite

Cleveland at Arizona, 4:05 EST
Cleveland: 7-1 ATS off an ATS win
Arizona: 13-5 Over playing on artificial turf

Denver at Oakland, 4:05 EST
Denver: 7-0 Over off an ATS loss
Oakland: 3-12 ATS at home vs. conference opponents

NY Giants at Chicago, 4:15 EST
NY Giants: 9-2 ATS away vs. conference opponents
Chicago: 12-3 Over in home games

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 8:15 EST NBC
Cincinnati: 13-16 Over revenging a same-season loss
Pittsburgh: 7-2 ATS in December


Monday, December 3rd

New England at Baltimore, 8:30 EST ESPN
New England: 7-1 ATS vs. conference opponents
Baltimore: 0-8 ATS vs. conference opponents

**(TC) Denotes Time Change

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Week 13 NFL schedule

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Sunday, December 2
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Falcons (3-8) @ Rams (2-9)—Hard to get excited about either side; Rams have awful offensive line; only twice in ’07 have five guys who started a game on OL finished that game. Bulger got knocked goofy last week, not sure if he plays here. College rumors have Petrino looking to bolt Falcons after one season, never a good sign. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t played bad; but offense is terrible- they scored total of just 43 points (four TD, five FG) on 19 drives that started in enemy territory, while foes scored 44 points (five TD, three FG) on just nine drives that started in Falcon territory. Rams had won two in row, led Seattle 19-7 at half last week, but let game slip away in last minute.

Bills (5-6) @ Redskins (5-6)—Hard to analyze game where one of star players was murdered during week, but we’ll try. Bills gave up 92 points (10 TD, five FG on last 18 drives) in losing last two games; they scored 9.3 pg in four games on natural grass. Skins lost last three games, somehow losing to Bucs last week, even though Tampa didn’t have first down in second half, and was outgained 412-192 for game. Redskin DC Williams is former head coach of Bills, so this game has to have special meaning for him; his defense has only one INT in last five games- they were -6 in turnovers last week, still almost won in Tampa. Five of last six Washington games went over total.

Lions (6-5) @ Vikings (5-6)—Detroit won first meeting 20-17, in game where both teams had five turnovers, and Vikings also had 12 penalties for 96 yards, but Lions lost last three games overall, allowing 28 pg- they’re 1-5 when they don’t win turnover battle, which they haven’t in last three weeks. Viking defense scored three TDs it self in rout of Giants at Swamp last week; Minnesota scored 70 points in winning last two games, averaging 9.3/7.8 ypp as Jackson is showing improvement as season wears on. Five of last six Viking games went over the total. Detroit has three extra days to rest/prep, having played on Thursday last week.

Texans (5-6) @ Titans (6-5)—Titan PK Bironas kicked NFL-record eight FGs in first meeting, 38-36 Titan win, in game where Texans rallied from 32-7 deficit to take lead at end, before backup QB Collins completed long pass to set up winning FG. Tennessee lost last three games, allowing 32.3 pg; they’re -7 in turnovers last four games, turning ball over 12 times. Houston is 5-0 when it allows 21 points or less; they’re 0-6 when they allow more- Titans scored 20 or less points ine ach of last five games, but are 3-2 at home, losing only to Colts, Jaguars. Under is 3-0-1 in four Texan games since the Week 7 loss to Tennessee.

Jaguars (8-3) @ Colts (9-2)—Jags can tie for first in AFC South with win, but they lost first meeting 29-7 to Indy (+3), as Colts outgained them 384-226, holding Jags to 2.8 yards/pass attempt. Jax won, covered last three games, winning by 15-7-22 points; they lost 41-24 in Superdome in only game on carpet so far this season (this is last of their two on artificial turf in ’07). Jags ran ball for average of 137.7 ypg in last three games (they were also +2 in turnovers in all three). Since getting 11 penalties in Week 2 vs. Falcons, Jaguars have been called for five or less penalties in each of last nine games; Colts are only other team that can make that claim. Five of last six Indy games stayed under total.

Jets (2-9) @ Dolphins (0-11)—Clemens makes 4th career start, Beck 3rd in this epic clash; NY scored 2 TDs on 32 drives in last three games, while only Dolphin TD in last two games came on long punt return, although quagmire at Heinz Monday rendered stats of that game useless. Jets won first meeting 31-28 in Week 3 (-3), almost blowing 31-13 lead in 4th quarter. Miami is winless, but lost five games by FG each- they have some hope, especially now that Ricky Williams experiment ended after five plays. Last four Miami games stayed under total; in their last five games, Dolphins have lost battle of field position by average of 13-20-17-12-22 yards. That’s hard to do.

Chargers (6-5) @ Chiefs (4-7)—San Diego has 22 takeaways at home (+12), seven on road (+1); they lost four of five road games (winning only at Denver) and are 1-4 when scoring less than 23 points, a figure Chiefs have allowed only twice this season (to Packers, Broncos, both at home). Chiefs won 30-16 at Qualcomm in first meeting (+11.5), outscoring Bolts 24-0 in second half, with four takeaways and average of 7.9 ypp. Ravens nay have done Norv a favor last week, forcing Rivers to pass, taking LT’s runs away- Rivers actually looked pretty good. Chiefs are 0-4 since bye, scoring 38 points in last three games (three offensive TDs on last 31 drives).

Seahawks (7-4) @ Eagles (5-6)—Philly played very well in loss at Foxboro last week, but threw three more INTs, are -6 in turnovers last two games; since allowing 13 yards/pass to Dallas in Week 9, Eagle D has improved, holding Brady to 6.4 last week. Philly is just 2-3 at home, may have QB controversy, especially if Feeley plays again and does well. Seattle trailed 19-7 at half in St Louis last week, rallied to win when Rams fumbled on 1-yard line on last play of game- the kind of play that winning teams benefit from (they did nothing to force the fumble). Hawks are 1-3 on grass this year, beating only the 49ers. Four of last five Philly games went over total.

49ers (3-8) @ Panthers (4-7)—Wow, talk about two sorry teams; Niners needed four takeaways and a missed 32-yard FG in OT (after a hideous delay of game penalty) from one of NFL’s best kickers to sweep Arizona, ending 8-game skid- Warner passed for 456 net yards (8.6 yards/try, even with four sacks). Niners had two TDs on 49 drives before scoring four on 14 drives at Arizona. Carolina didn’t give it the ol’ college try once Saints got ahead last week; they haven’t won home game in over a full calendar year (0-5 this year, allowing 27.2 pg), ar e-6 in turnovers last two games, and won battle for field position once all season. An NFL team with no QB is guaranteed to be a disaster.

Buccaneers (7-4) @ Saints (5-6)—Tampa went into shell with a lead and Garcia hurt last week, forced six turnovers, hung on to win third straight game, despite not getting first down in second half (Garcia returned in 4th quarter)- they’ve given up just three TDs on foes’ last 37 drives. Bucs won first meeting 31-14 at home in Week 2 (+3.5), averaging a whopping 15.2 ypp (10-16/243). Saints scored 29+ points in four of last five games, but are just 2-3 at home; they beat Jags, but lose to Rams/Texans, go figure. Bucs outscored last three opponents 43-6 in first half. Bucs are 1-3 on carpet in ’07, winning in Atlanta, losing at Seattle (20-6), Indy (33-14) and Detroit (23-16).

Browns (7-4) @ Arizona (5-6)—Could fill book with way Cards screwed last week’s game up, now they have to bounce back vs Cleveland squad that won five of last six games (covering all six), scoring 27+ points in all six. Cleveland has seven takeaways and 12 sacks in last two games, after having total of 15-7 in first eight; Arizona gave up seven sacks in last two games, mostly because Warner holds ball so long. Browns covered four of five road games (2-3 SU, beating Rams, Ravens). Over will be fashionable pick here, as Redbirds scored 31-35-31 points in last three games, while Browns yielded 31+ in five of last seven outings (over 6-1 in those seven games).

Broncos (5-6) @ Raiders (3-8)—Pay attention to media reports in pre-game shows; if Raiders decide to use rookie QB Russell in this game, Denver becomes play, because it is going to take him while to become NFL QB, not having played as many years as he could have at LSU. Oakland snapped 6-game skid in KC last week; opponents are just 9 for last 35 on 3rd down. Broncos blew 34-20 lead in 4th quarter last week, converting just 1-12 on 3rd down, with several special teams disasters. You think Denver worked on their punting this week, after getting one blocked and another run back for TD in Chicago? Nine of last ten Denver games went over the total.

NY Giants (7-4) @ Bears (5-6)—After disaster vs Vikings last week, younger Manning needs to man up, have strong game vs Chicago defense that yielded 425-430 total yards in last two weeks, vs Seattle, Denver. Giants won last four on road, allowing just 11.8 pg, but they’ve been outscored 51-19 in second half of last four games- you could question their heart. Bears generally win field position (won it in six of last eight games) because of Hester, but Chicago is 0-4 SU and vs spread in game following a win, losing by 34-10/34-31/16-7/30-23 scores. This is only Giants’ third game on grass; they won in London 13-10, on soccer field unfit for NFL, rallied from behind in Week 3 to beat Skins 24-17.

Bengals (4-7) @ Steelers (8-3)—Heinz Field quagmire shouldn’t be much better six days after 3-0 debacle Monday night that almost saw Pitt lose to 2-8 Jets/0-10 Dolphins back/back; Steelers won first meeting 24-13 at Cincinnati in Week 8 (-4); as Steelers outrushed Bengals 160-91, converted 8-11 on 3rd down, scored three TDs in four red zone trips (Cincy had one on its four). Bengals are 1-4 on road, beating Ravens in last away game; they held Titans to pair of FGs on five red zone trips last week. Short work week for Steelers, who have one TD on last 22 drives, after scoring 15 TDs on previous 44 drives in four games before the loss to the Jets.

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Monday, December 3
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Patriots (11-0) @ Ravens (4-7) —Hideous Raven offense (15 for last 59 on 3rd down, -13 turnover ratio in last four games), special teams are putting too much pressure on Baltimore defense; 15 of foes’ last 51 drives started in Raven territory, after only 8 of first 78 did this season. Patriots took Eagles’ best shot last week, still won; they’re 6-0 on road, winning 38-14/34-13/48-27/49-28/24-20/56-10. In second half of those six games, Pats outscored foes 113-34. Emotional Ravens are capable of great defense, but they’ll need their best offensive game of year to move chains enough to take pressure off their defense. Over is 9-2 in Patriot games this season, 6-1 in last seven Baltimore games.

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