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**Chado1** · 11-29-2007, 07:04 PM

BOL with the open teaser rocco...you may want to add the Steelers -0.5 in that open slot...thats what I did!!!

**roccodean** · 11-29-2007, 07:05 PM

I like pitt too, have you heard anything on the field conditions?

**Chado1** · 11-29-2007, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by roccodean

I like pitt too, have you heard anything on the field conditions?

No shit...

**roccodean** · 12-02-2007, 01:09 PM

May have a couple more plays at 4:00 and will probably play pitt tonight just waiting on field condition. Good luck to all!!!

2007 NFL
24-22-2
+3.91
(you can see my past picks at www.byeweekpicks.com)

1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units

4* Philadelphia -2.5 over Seattle (Buy 1/2 point) (-130)
My first 4* since week 5! Seattle is an overrated team, they are coming of 3 wins SU and ATS (and are due for a loss), and they are traveling cross country on Sunday. Seattle's offense is mediocre at best. They average 22.3 PPG, but the teams that they have played have allowed 22.7 PPG. Their rushing game only gains 3.5 YPR (24th), and this week S. Alexander is back and he is worse than back up Morris (Alexander: 3.3 YPR vs Morris: 4.2 YPR). In the air the Hawks are also average; 7.3 YPPA, 15th in NFL. The forecast calls for freezing rain which is going to make it tough for the Hawks to throw which is their only offensive threat. The Eagles will exploit Seattle's mediocre rush D that allows 3.91 YPR (15th). Their pass defense is stronger allowing 6.6 YPPA (8th). Seattle may be 7-4, but they have played zero competition and their strength of schedule is dead last in the league!
Philly is coming off a close game with N.E. and this will give them confidence leading into this game. Feely had good stats last week except for his 3 picks and if he doesn't commit turnovers Philly will easily win this game. The Eagles rushing game behind Westbrook is one of the best in the league averaging 4.5 YPR (3rd). Their passing game is also pretty good averaging 7.2 YPPA (13th) (Feely averaged 7.7 YPPA last week). Philly's defense allows 19.8 PPG versus teams that have combined to score 23.6 PPG. Their pass game allows 7.26 YPPA (23rd), but their rushing D is very good allowing only 3.65 YPR (6th). As opposed to Seattle, the Eagles have the 2nd most difficult strength of schedule. There are 4 strong trends favoring Philly including a 36-11 ATS trend since 1985. This is still a 4* play at -3.

3* Arizona -1 over Cleveland
Cleveland is a much improved team with a good offense but it is very hard to win on the road in the NFL without a defense. Cleveland has won 5 of 6 games and is due for a loss. Cleveland allows 28.3 PPG (last in the NFL) versus teams that have combined to score 22 PPG. They are 30th versus the run allowing 4.6 YPR and 30th versus the pass allowing 267 YPG! Their pass offense is good as D.A. is averaging 7.5 YPPA (10th), but their rushing game is only average (4.1 YPR, 15th). So, their strength is obviously in their passing game and they are facing a Cardinal's defense that is ranked 7th allowing only 6.53 YPPA. The Brownies won't be able to run either as the Cards only allow 3.9 YPR.
The Cards are coming off a double digit loss to S.F. and historically these are good plays in the NFL. Arizona has a good offense averaging 23 PPG and their passing game is good (7.2 YPPA). Their running game is weak averaging only 3.5 YPR (30th), but a high school team can run against the Browns. There is a strong trend favoring the Cards that is 142-76 ATS over the last 25 years. I love the Cards in this one!

3* Detroit +5,5 over Minnesota
(somehow got 5.5 at bookmaker but I like them at any line of 3 or higher)
I am also taking the money line at +210 for 0.25 units.
I love Detroit in this game because they are coming off 3 consecutive losses including 2 at home and they will shut down Minnesota's only offensive strength, their running game, while exploiting Minnesota's weakness, their pass defense. Minnesota leads the league averaging 5.6 YPR, but Detroit is 8th in the league allowing only 3.7 YPR and 96 YPG rushing (9th). The Vikings have zero passing game with T. Jackson as they only average 159 YPG in the air (31st in the NFL) and 6.8 YPPA (18th). Detroit's passing defense is not stellar allowing 7.2 YPPA (22nd) but as I said I am not worried about T. Jackson.
Detroit started the season hot but they have lost their last three and they are fighting for a playoff wildcard birth. Detroit is coming off a Turkey Day game and 10 days rest which gives them an even bigger advantage this week. Their rushing game is average (4 YPR, 18th), but their passing game is strong averaging 7.53 YPPA (7th). They are not going to run this game because Minnesota has one of the best rush defenses in the league (3 YPR), but their pass defense allows 7.2 YPPA (21st) and a whopping 283 YPG (last in NFL). My Super System does not come into play in this contest as it has the Vikes as a 2 point favorite. There are trends favoring both teams, but the strongest is on the Lions and is 33-13 ATS since 1983. This line is as high as 5.5 at some places. I rate this a 3* at +3 or higher.

2* 6.5 Point Teaser: Dallas/Indy
Dallas -0.5 over G.B. : Winner (see above)

Indy Pick over Jax
The Jags are coming off 3 consecutive victories and are due for a let down. Meanwhile, Indy is at home coming off 10 days rest and will be ready for this division show down. The Jags defense is overrated, big time! I hear all the announcers talking about how dominant their defense is and I laugh to myselft. They allow 4.1 YPR (21st), 7.3 YPPA (24th), and 247 YPG in the air (28th)! Their offense is solid as they average 4.2 YPR (9th) and 7.33 (12th). Garrard has not thrown a pick all year and this cannot last all year and I foresee him having a tough game this week against a great Indy pass D (2nd in the league in YPPA and YPG allowed in the air).
Indy's offense is very good as usual and this week they get all of their weapons back except Harrison. They average 4.1 YPR (14th) and 7.43 YPPA (9th). They are averaging 28.1 PPG versus teams that have allowed only 20.6 PPG this year. They will have no problem scoring against a bad Jags D! Their defense is even more impressive as they only allow 3.85 YPR (12th) and only 5.55 YPPA (2nd). Their defense is allowing only 15.6 PPG versus teams that have averaged over 20 PPG. My Super System has Indy as a 12.8 point favorite. There are 2 strong trends favoring Indy (242-155 ATS and 135-75 ATS) and a 34-2 SU winner trend!

**Kaptain** · 12-02-2007, 01:44 PM

gl to ya today

**jmarty6969** · 12-02-2007, 01:45 PM

gl rocco

**libertypl** · 12-02-2007, 01:52 PM

BOL to ya today.

**roccodean** · 12-03-2007, 01:31 AM

Damn A.J. Feely..Could have been 4-1 (forgot to post pittsburgh). Why'd I bet a back up

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