Announcement

**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:37 AM

Six-pack for Thursday

The worst six bowls to be invited to...........

6) Poinsettia Bowl-- San Diego is terrific place, but this is first of the bowls, so not much time to enjoy it, and Navy is the opponent- they're going to run ball whole game, while most people root for them in a military city.

5) International Bowl-- Noon Saturday game from Toronto. At the end of bowl season. Nothing against Canada, but if we go to a bowl, I don't want to bring a parka.

4) Armed Forces Bowl-- Want to play Air Force in a bowl sponsored by the armed forces? I didn't think so.

3) Emerald Bowl-- They play this game on field where the Giants play baseball; very little atmosphere, both benches are on same sideline. You think bowls, you don't think SF.

2) Motor City Bowl-- Detroit. In a dome. No thanks.

1) Humanitarian Bowl-- It is cold in Boise, and Broncos will be your opponent, so you'll probably freeze and lose.

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:37 AM

Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but..........

13) We need a Pac 10-SEC bowl matchup; hasn't been one in 18 years, since a Florida-Washington matchup in Anaheim, in the old Freedom Bowl. You'd think they'd make this happen. After all thats happened, wouldn't USC-LSU be a natural?

12) I feel bad for the Oregon players, whose season went up in flames when Dixon blew out his knee; they're not going to get as good a bowl as they should have.

11) Looks like Boise State will play at home in Humanitarian Bowl; what visiting team is going to be excited about going there? Road game in cold weather in freakin' Idaho? Umm, no.

10) Rumors are hot that Michigan might go after Kirk Ferentz, the Iowa coach; he has daughter who goes to Michigan, but they also finally got permission to talk to Les Miles last night the move that makes the most sense.

9) What does it say about NFL coaching that rumor mill has Lane Kiffin and Bobby Petrino both interested in going back to school, after only one NFL season each?

8) Apparently, the LA Coliseum hasn't been upgraded in 10 or more years, so USC is using Rose Bowl as leverage to get someone to fix up the Coliseum. UCLA can veto the Trojans' move to Pasadena; the two rivals shared the Coliseum back before Bruins moved to Rose Bowl.

7) Ole Miss was interested in Rick Neuheisel, but he has his eyes on UCLA job (he played there), so he tried to prolong things with process at Ole Miss, but Rebels acted quickly, to maintain recruiting momentum they had under Orgeron, who is great recruiter but was terrible head coach.

6) Over last four games, Baltimore Raven opponents started 15 of their 51 drives in Raven territory; making first downs is a priority for Ravens, to give some support to their defense, who shouldn't have to be defending short field 30% of time.

Nightly college basketball knowledge..........

5) ESPN's Fran Fraschilla likens Kansas State star freshman Michael Beasley to Derrick Coleman, a strong lefty.

4) UMass 107, Syracuse 100. Good thing Coach K picked Jim Boeheim as his zone defense guru for the Olympic team. Now though, Argentina might hire Travis Ford to coach offense. No whining in March if Syracuse gets snubbed again- if you never leave home to play, you better win an awful lot.

3) Arkansas 94, Missouri 91-- Two teams running, pressing all night long; Mike Anderson was assistant for Hogs when they won national title, adding a little subplot, and John Daly was yukking it up courtside. Big-time fun.

2) A year or two from now, Pepperdine is going to challenge Gonzaga's supremacy in WCC; they have great system, just need the players to fit into it. Wednesday, Waves had best win of the Wallberg era when they won 93-87 in overtime at Northern Arizona, after being down eight at the half.

1) In D-III ball, which can be bizarre at times, Ithaca lost 93-82 at Potsdam on November 16, making 9-15 from foul line, when Potsdam, the home team, was 24-37. One other detail; one of the refs that night had a son playing for Potsdam. Seriously.

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:39 AM

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index

Rutgers at Louisville
Louisville had been hoping to be playing for an invite to a BCS bowl at this time of the season, but instead is just struggling to get back to .500. The Cardinals have watched a bad season turn to worse as they have dropped three of their last four games, including a 55-17 thrashing at South Florida on November 17. That porous defense should be a welcome sight to Rutgers' Ray Rice, who comes into the contest with 1,612 rushing yards and will make one final push for the Doak Walker Award. In addition, the Scarlet Knights' two talented receivers (Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt) both have a shot at setting the school record for receiving yards. On the defensive end, Greg Shiano's unit is ranked No. 1 in pass defense and should give Louisville's Brian Brohm plenty of problems. Rutgers looks like a good underdog pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Scarlet Knights favored straight up by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 29

Game 303-304: Rutgers at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 95.619; Louisville 91.396
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 4 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Louisville by 3; 60
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+3); Under

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 30

Game 305-306: Fresno State at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 89.826; New Mexico State 64.974
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 25; 63
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 13; 67
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-13); Under

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 1

Game 307-308: Army vs. Navy
Dunkel Ratings: Army 70.820; Navy 78.363
Dunkel Line: Navy by 7 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Navy by 14; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Army (+14); Under

Game 309-310: Louisiana Tech at Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 74.461; Nevada 80.580
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 6; 59
Vegas Line: Nevada by 8 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+8 1/2); Under

Game 311-312: UCLA at USC
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 96.504; USC 106.704
Dunkel Line: USC by 10; 40
Vegas Line: USC by 20; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+20); Under

Game 313-314: Oregon State at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 101.578; Oregon 99.272
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 2 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 315-316: California at Stanford
Dunkel Ratings: California 91.914; Stanford 86.022
Dunkel Line: California by 6; 47
Vegas Line: California by 13 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+13 1/2); Under

Game 317-318: Pittsburgh at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 83.892; West Virginia 116.213
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 32 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 26 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-26 1/2); Under

Game 319-320: Arizona at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 98.588; Arizona State 102.062
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 3 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 7 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+7 1/2); Over

Game 321-322: Washington at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 91.091; Hawaii 102.529
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 11 1/2; 67
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 14; 74
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+14); Under

Game 323-324: Florida Atlantic at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 73.152; Troy 93.380
Dunkel Line: Troy by 20; 55
Vegas Line: Troy by 15; 65
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-15); Under

Game 325-326: North Texas at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 65.867; Florida International 57.433
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 8 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: North Texas by 2; 64
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-2); Over

Game 327-328: Central Michigan vs. Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 74.729; Miami (OH) 76.383
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 1 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 3 1/2; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+3 1/2); Over

Game 329-330: Tulsa at Central Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 84.650; Central Florida 93.529
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 9; 69
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 6 1/2; 75
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-6 1/2); Under

Game 331-332: Virginia Tech vs. Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 99.341; Virginia Tech 100.905
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 1 1/2; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 4 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+4 1/2); Under

Game 333-334: Tennessee vs. LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 99.377; LSU 103.251
Dunkel Line: LSU by 4; 65
Vegas Line: LSU by 7 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7 1/2); Over

Game 335-336: Oklahoma vs. Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 106.250; Missouri 112.114
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 6; 62
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 3; 67
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+3); Under

Game 367-368: BYU at San Diego State
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 98.295; San Diego State 84.063
Dunkel Line: BYU by 14; 52
Vegas Line: BYU by 16; 55
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+16); Under

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:40 AM

College Football – Long Sheet

NCAAF
Long Sheet

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Thursday, November 29
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RUTGERS (7 - 4) at LOUISVILLE (5 - 6) - 11/29/2007, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 1-1 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 1-1 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, November 30
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FRESNO ST (7 - 4) at NEW MEXICO ST (4 - 8) - 11/30/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 19-38 ATS (-22.8 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 1
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ARMY (3 - 8) vs. NAVY (7 - 4) - 12/1/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
NAVY is 96-67 ATS (+22.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 91-62 ATS (+22.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
NAVY is 47-19 ATS (+26.1 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
NAVY is 43-20 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NAVY is 96-67 ATS (+22.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 1-1 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOUISIANA TECH (5 - 6) at NEVADA (5 - 6) - 12/1/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEVADA is 2-0 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 2-0 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UCLA (6 - 5) at USC (9 - 2) - 12/1/2007, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 1-1 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
USC is 1-1 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OREGON ST (7 - 4) at OREGON (8 - 3) - 12/1/2007, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON is 2-0 against the spread versus OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
OREGON is 1-1 straight up against OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CALIFORNIA (6 - 5) at STANFORD (3 - 8) - 12/1/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
CALIFORNIA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.
STANFORD is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 1-1 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
CALIFORNIA is 2-0 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 7) at W VIRGINIA (10 - 1) - 12/1/2007, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
W VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (5 - 6) at ARIZONA ST (9 - 2) - 12/1/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA ST is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA ST is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (4 - 8) at HAWAII (11 - 0) - 12/1/2007, 11:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 47-73 ATS (-33.3 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FLA ATLANTIC (6 - 5) at TROY (8 - 3) - 12/1/2007, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TROY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
TROY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
TROY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 2-0 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NORTH TEXAS (2 - 9) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (0 - 11) - 12/1/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NORTH TEXAS is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
NORTH TEXAS is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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C MICHIGAN (7 - 5) vs. MIAMI OHIO (6 - 6) - 12/1/2007, 11:00 AM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TULSA (9 - 3) at UCF (9 - 3) - 12/1/2007, 12:00 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 1-1 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 1-1 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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VIRGINIA TECH (10 - 2) vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (10 - 2) - 12/1/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 31-9 ATS (+21.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-1 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (9 - 3) vs. LSU (10 - 2) - 12/1/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons
LSU is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA (10 - 2) vs. MISSOURI (11 - 1) - 12/1/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
MISSOURI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
MISSOURI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISSOURI is 1-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BYU (9 - 2) at SAN DIEGO ST (4 - 7) - 12/1/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
BYU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:41 AM

College Football – Short Sheet

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Thursday, November 29th

Rutgers at Louisville, 7:45 EST ESPN
Rutgers: 5-1 Under as a road underdog
Louisville: 10-1 ATS off BB Overs

Friday, November 30th

Fresno State at New Mexico State, 8:00 EST ESPN2
Fresno State: 5-1 ATS off a win
New Mexico State: 2-12 ATS off a home game

Saturday, December 1st

Army vs. Navy, 12:00 EST CBS
Army: 0-6 ATS after allowing 42+ points
Navy: 28-7 ATS off a home win

Louisiana Tech at Nevada, 4:00 EST
Louisiana Tech: 4-13 ATS off a bye week
Nevada: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite

UCLA at USC, 4:30 EST ABC
UCLA: 8-1 ATS as an underdog
USC: 5-14 ATS off 3+ wins

Oregon State at Oregon, 4:30 EST ESPN2
Oregon State: 0-7 ATS off a win by 17+ points
Oregon: 6-1 ATS playing on artificial turf

California at Stanford, 7:00 EST VER
California: 24-11 ATS away off a combined score of 60+ points
Stanford: 2-10 ATS in home games

(TC) Pittsburgh at West Virginia, 7:45 EST ESPN
Pittsburgh: 9-31 ATS off a home loss
West Virginia: 12-4 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

Arizona at Arizona State, 8:00 EST ESPN2
Arizona: 8-0 ATS away off 3+ conference games
Arizona State: 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

(TC) Washington at Hawaii, 11:30 EST ESPN
Washington: 12-3 ATS off a loss as a home favorite
Hawaii: 6-1 Under off 7+ wins

Added Games:

Florida Atlantic at Troy, 2:00 EST
Florida Atl: 2-7 ATS off a conference win
Troy: 6-1 ATS off a straight up win

North Texas at Florida International, 7:00 EST
North Texas: 10-3 Under off a win
Florida Int: 2-12 ATS off 4+ losses

Championship Games:

MAC Championship
Detroit, Michigan
Central Michigan vs. Miami OH, 11:00am EST ESPN2
Central Michigan: 12-1 ATS off a road game
Miami OH: 3-10 ATS off an Over

Conference USA Championship
Orlando, Florida
Tulsa vs. Central Florida, 12:00 EST
Tulsa: 1-9 ATS after scoring 37+ points
Central Florida: 6-1 ATS off BB Unders

ACC Championship
Jacksonville, Florida
Virginia Tech vs. Boston College, 1:00 EST ABC
Virginia Tech: 7-17 ATS off BB conference wins by 10+ points
Boston College: 6-0 ATS as an underdog

SEC Championship
Atlanta Georgia
Tennessee vs. LSU, 4:00 EST CBS
Tennessee: 5-1 ATS off BB wins by 6 or less points
LSU: 3-11 ATS vs. conference opponents

Big 12 Championship
San Antonio, Texas
Oklahoma vs. Missouri, 8:00 EST ABC
Oklahoma: 6-17 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Missouri: 6-0 ATS with a total of 63+ points

Write-In Game:

BYU at San Diego State, 6:30 EST
BYU: 18-6 Under off BB Unders
San Diego State: 6-0 ATS at home off a conference loss

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:42 AM

College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up

Thursday, November 29

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Thursday’s Game

Rutgers RB Rice might run wild vs Louisville defense that has given up 453 rushing yards, 93 points in last two games- they've turned ball over 22 times in last eight games, but are 7-4 and will go to decent bowl with win here. Louisville is just 11 for last 39 on 3rd down- they lost two of last three home games, are ending miserable season but can still finish at .500 with win. Five of last seven Rutgers games stayed under the total. Knights are 2-1 on road, beating Syracuse, Army, losing 38-19 at UConn.

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:43 AM

College Football - Tips & Trends

NCAAF
Tips and Trends

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Tips and Trends
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Thursday, November 29

Rutgers at Louisville (ESPN | 7:30 PM ET)

Rutgers has likely already locked up a postseason bowl bid while Louisville has one more chance to salvage the season and become bowl eligible. This will be senior QB Brian Brohm's last home game, and you can bet he will go all out to impress the NFL scouts in what will become the last game of his career if the Cardinals lose. EDGE: CARDINALS
This is also a big revenge spot for the Cardinals after the Scarlet Knights ended their perfect season with a 28-25 victory last November 9th. EDGE: CARDINALS
Louisville has the second-worst run defense in the Big East, surrendering 166.5 yards per game. That could be big trouble going against the conference's leading rusher in Ray Rice, who has averaged 146.5 yards per game and totaled 17 touchdowns on the ground. BIG EDGE: RUTGERS
Rutgers is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against a losing team.
Rutgers is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss.
Rutgers is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 Thursday games.
Louisville is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 November games.
Louisville is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points previously.
Louisville is 0-4 ATS at home this year.

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:44 AM

College Football – Line Moves

NCAAF
Line Moves

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Early NCAAF line moves – Week 14
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In nine weeks of tracking the most significant early line movements as an indicator of weekend success there have only been two weekends where playing on the games with the sharpest early action would have turned a profit. Last weekend was not one of them.

Clearly you should continue to fade and fade hard. The early-week steam moves are just 19-27 this season for a bankroll-busting 41.3-percent clip.

With that in mind, here are the college football games with the most significant early movements heading into Championship weekend:

UCLA at Southern California (4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 1)

Open: USC -16

Current: USC -20

Last year this game was for a ticket to the BCS Championship Game for the Trojans. This year it holds an invite to the Rose Bowl in the balance. It looks like oddsmakers are anticipating USC to dole out a large dose of revenge for UCLA’s upset last season. Further complicating the line is the health of Bruins QB Drew Olson, who can be spotty even when healthy. If there is no Olson, or if he can’t go the whole 60, this number will be covered with ease. If he does play, and plays well, then I’m not opposed to cashing on the Bruins – again.

Washington at Hawaii (11:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 1)

Open: Hawaii -10

Current: Hawaii -14

Beware the letdown game. The Warriors are coming off the contest that they had built up as the defining point in their season. Now they have to man up and take on a Huskies team that is not only full of seniors but also has nothing to lose. Hawaii is just 2-6 against the spread (ATS) in its last eight games against the Pac-10 and Washington was good enough to beat Boise State by two touchdowns earlier this season.

Florida Atlantic at Troy (2 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 1)

Open: Troy -15

Current: Troy -16 ½

There aren’t a lot of heavy movers this week. But in a matchup of the Sun Belt's No. 1 and No. 2 teams I was not only a little shocked to see such a large number, but also a little surprised the early action was on the Trojans.

The numbers suggest that it does make sense. Troy has been an ATM machine this season, covering four straight and eight of 10, and the Trojans are a stellar 13-3 against the number over the past two years. Also, FAU is just 2-10 ATS as a road dog. Be wary either way with this one.

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:45 AM

College Football – Cheat Sheet

NCAAF
NCAAF cheat sheet

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College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet
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Virginia Tech vs. Boston College (+4 ½)

Why Hokies cover: Virginia Tech has won, and covered, in four straight games and six of its last seven. The Hokies allow the second-fewest points per game in the nation (15.4) and the fourth-fewest yards (285.3).

Why Eagles cover: Boston College is averaging over 100 yards more per game than the Hokies. Earlier this season, the Eagles recorded a 14-10 come-from-behind win at Virginia Tech. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against the Hokies.

Total (46 ½): The over is 4-1 in the Hokies’ last five games as a favorite.

Tennessee vs. Louisiana State (-7 ½)

Why Volunteers cover: Tennessee has covered in four of its last five games. Quarterback Erik Ainge threw for a career-high 397 yards and a school-record seven TDs in last week’s 52-50 win over Kentucky.

Why Tigers cover: LSU covered in two of its last three meetings with Tennessee. The Tigers rank third in the nation in total defense (280.1 yards per game), while their offense is scoring 40.2 points per contest behind QB Matt Flynn.

Total (60 ½): The over is 7-0 in the Tigers’ last seven games overall.

Oregon State at Oregon (N/A)

Why Beavers cover: Oregon will be without star quarterback Dennis Dixon, who suffered a season-ending injury in the loss to Arizona. The Beavers have covered in five of their last six games.

Why Ducks cover: Oregon is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Has covered the spread in three of its last four against Oregon State. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams.

Total (N/A): The over is 5-0 in the last five games between Oregon and Oregon State.

UCLA at Southern California (-20 ½)

Why Bruins cover: UCLA has covered the spread in two of its last three games against USC, and in two straight games overall. Quarterback Ben Olsen, who has 1,040 yards and seven TDs this season, returned from injury in last week’s win over Oregon.

Why Trojans cover: USC is sixth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 16.7 points per game. The Bruins, meanwhile, are second-last in the Pac-10 in scoring (24.4), and scored just one touchdown last week.

Total (46 ½): The under is 8-1 in the Trojans’ last nine games overall.

Brigham Young at San Diego State (+15)

Why Cougars cover: Brigham Young has won 16 straight conference games, including five of its last six against San Diego State. It also covered the spread in five of those six games.

Why Aztecs cover: San Diego State has covered in four of its last five. The last time the Cougars traveled to San Diego (2005), the Aztecs recorded an impressive 31-10 home win to cover a 3-point spread.

Total (55 ½): The over is 4-0 in the Aztecs last five conference games and last five overall.

Pittsburgh at West Virginia (-28)

Why Panthers cover: Freshman running back LeSean McCoy ran for three TDs last week, and is one short of the single-season record for a freshman. The Panthers have covered the spread in their last two road games.

Why Mountaineers cover: Quarterback Pat White had one of the best games of his career against the Panthers last season, running for 220 yards and two touchdowns and passing for 204 yards and another two scores. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Pittsburgh.

Total (58 ½): The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Virginia.

Oklahoma vs. Missouri (+3)

Why Sooners cover: Oklahoma recorded a 41-31 win over Missouri on Oct. 13, the Tigers’ only loss of the season. Sooners quarterback Sam Bradford has thrown for an NCAA freshman-record 32 touchdowns this season.

Why Tigers cover: Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel, a serious contender for the Heisman Trophy, has thrown for a career-best 3,951 yards and 33 touchdowns. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Total (67): The under is 13-3-1 in Oklahoma’s last 17 conference games.

Arizona at Arizona State (-7)

Why Wildcats cover: Arizona has won three in a row and covered the spread each time. QB Willie Tuitama threw for 1,117 yards and 10 TDs during this streak.

Why Sun Devils cover: Arizona State is second in the conference with 33.3 points per game. QB Rudy Carpenter is third in the Pac-10 in yards (2,768) and touchdowns (21). The Sun Devils are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record.

Total (57 ½): The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams.

Washington at Hawaii (-14)

Why Huskies cover: Starting quarterback Jake Locker returned from injury to throw 224 yards and a touchdown last week. Locker has thrown for 1,920 yards and 14 touchdowns this season.

Why Warriors cover: Hawaii is the only unbeaten team left in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Warriors rank third in the nation in total offense (528.5 yards per game) and are outscoring opponents by an average of 23.4 points.

Total (74): The under is 5-1 in Hawaii’s last six home games.

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:48 AM

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet

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Thursday, November 29
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GREEN BAY (10 - 1) at DALLAS (10 - 1) - 11/29/2007, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
GREEN BAY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
GREEN BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, December 2
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ATLANTA (3 - 8) at ST LOUIS (2 - 9) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (5 - 6) at WASHINGTON (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 41-66 ATS (-31.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (6 - 5) at MINNESOTA (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (5 - 6) at TENNESSEE (6 - 5) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 4-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 5-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (8 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 2) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (2 - 9) at MIAMI (0 - 10) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (6 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 7) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (7 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 8) at CAROLINA (4 - 7) - 12/2/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CAROLINA is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (7 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-58 ATS (-27.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) in home games in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-75 ATS (-33.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-75 ATS (-33.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (7 - 4) at ARIZONA (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (5 - 6) at OAKLAND (3 - 8) - 12/2/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 22-47 ATS (-29.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (7 - 4) at CHICAGO (5 - 6) - 12/2/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 18-39 ATS (-24.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (4 - 7) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 3) - 12/2/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 3
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NEW ENGLAND (11 - 0) at BALTIMORE (4 - 7) - 12/3/2007, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:50 AM

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet

Thursday, November 29th

Green Bay at Dallas, 8:15 EST NFL
Green Bay: 11-2 ATS in road games
Dallas: 2-13 ATS off a win by 28+ points

Sunday, December 2nd

Atlanta at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Atlanta: 6-1 ATS off BB Overs
St. Louis: 1-6 ATS off an Under

Buffalo at Washington, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 7-2 ATS off BB Overs
Washington: 0-5 ATS off BB games with 400+ total yards

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 EST
Detroit: 18-6 ATS off 3+ ATS losses
Minnesota: 2-11 ATS off a win by 14+ points as an underdog

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Houston: 6-0 ATS away off a road loss
Tennessee: 9-22 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 0-7 ATS away off a home win by 21+ points
Indianapolis: 12-4 ATS in dome stadiums

NY Jets at Miami, 1:00 EST
NY Jets: 21-7 ATS vs. Miami
Miami: 2-12 ATS vs. division opponents

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 1-6 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Kansas City: 5-1 ATS off a division loss

Seattle at Philadelphia , 1:00 EST
Seattle: 15-35 ATS off a division win
Philadelphia: 22-10 ATS vs. NFC West opponents

San Francisco at Carolina , 1:00 EST
San Francisco: 13-2 ATS off 3+ division games
Carolina: 2-10 ATS in home games

(TC) Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 4:15 EST
Tampa Bay: 9-1 Under off BB wins
New Orleans: 2-9 ATS as a home favorite

Cleveland at Arizona, 4:05 EST
Cleveland: 7-1 ATS off an ATS win
Arizona: 13-5 Over playing on artificial turf

Denver at Oakland, 4:05 EST
Denver: 7-0 Over off an ATS loss
Oakland: 3-12 ATS at home vs. conference opponents

NY Giants at Chicago, 4:15 EST
NY Giants: 9-2 ATS away vs. conference opponents
Chicago: 12-3 Over in home games

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 8:15 EST NBC
Cincinnati: 13-16 Over revenging a same-season loss
Pittsburgh: 7-2 ATS in December

Monday, December 3rd

New England at Baltimore, 8:30 EST ESPN
New England: 7-1 ATS vs. conference opponents
Baltimore: 0-8 ATS vs. conference opponents

**(TC) Denotes Time Change

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:51 AM

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up

Week 13 NFL schedule

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Thursday, November 29
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Packers (10-1) @ Cowboys (10-1)—Green Bay won six in row, Dallas five in row in what figures to be the NFC Game of Year, determining home field throughout NFC playoffs. Favre is 0-8 at Dallas in his career, but only once in last 10 games this year has he averaged less than 6.9 yards/pass- Pack is 5-0 vs spread as dog this season, has 11 TDs on 31 drives in last three games and is 3-0 on carpet, scoring 31.7 pg. Romo grew up a Favre fan in Wisconsin; Cowboys covered four of last five games, outscoring foes 82-16 in second half; they’ve scored 24+ points in every games this season, with five of their last seven games going over the total.

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Sunday, December 2
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Falcons (3-8) @ Rams (2-9)—Hard to get excited about either side; Rams have awful offensive line; only twice in ’07 have five guys who started a game on OL finished that game. Bulger got knocked goofy last week, not sure if he plays here. College rumors have Petrino looking to bolt Falcons after one season, never a good sign. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t played bad; but offense is terrible- they scored total of just 43 points (four TD, five FG) on 19 drives that started in enemy territory, while foes scored 44 points (five TD, three FG) on just nine drives that started in Falcon territory. Rams had won two in row, led Seattle 19-7 at half last week, but let game slip away in last minute.

Bills (5-6) @ Redskins (5-6)—Hard to analyze game where one of star players was murdered during week, but we’ll try. Bills gave up 92 points (10 TD, five FG on last 18 drives) in losing last two games; they scored 9.3 pg in four games on natural grass. Skins lost last three games, somehow losing to Bucs last week, even though Tampa didn’t have first down in second half, and was outgained 412-192 for game. Redskin DC Williams is former head coach of Bills, so this game has to have special meaning for him; his defense has only one INT in last five games- they were -6 in turnovers last week, still almost won in Tampa. Five of last six Washington games went over total.

Lions (6-5) @ Vikings (5-6)—Detroit won first meeting 20-17, in game where both teams had five turnovers, and Vikings also had 12 penalties for 96 yards, but Lions lost last three games overall, allowing 28 pg- they’re 1-5 when they don’t win turnover battle, which they haven’t in last three weeks. Viking defense scored three TDs it self in rout of Giants at Swamp last week; Minnesota scored 70 points in winning last two games, averaging 9.3/7.8 ypp as Jackson is showing improvement as season wears on. Five of last six Viking games went over the total. Detroit has three extra days to rest/prep, having played on Thursday last week.

Texans (5-6) @ Titans (6-5)—Titan PK Bironas kicked NFL-record eight FGs in first meeting, 38-36 Titan win, in game where Texans rallied from 32-7 deficit to take lead at end, before backup QB Collins completed long pass to set up winning FG. Tennessee lost last three games, allowing 32.3 pg; they’re -7 in turnovers last four games, turning ball over 12 times. Houston is 5-0 when it allows 21 points or less; they’re 0-6 when they allow more- Titans scored 20 or less points ine ach of last five games, but are 3-2 at home, losing only to Colts, Jaguars. Under is 3-0-1 in four Texan games since the Week 7 loss to Tennessee.

Jaguars (8-3) @ Colts (9-2)—Jags can tie for first in AFC South with win, but they lost first meeting 29-7 to Indy (+3), as Colts outgained them 384-226, holding Jags to 2.8 yards/pass attempt. Jax won, covered last three games, winning by 15-7-22 points; they lost 41-24 in Superdome in only game on carpet so far this season (this is last of their two on artificial turf in ’07). Jags ran ball for average of 137.7 ypg in last three games (they were also +2 in turnovers in all three). Since getting 11 penalties in Week 2 vs. Falcons, Jaguars have been called for five or less penalties in each of last nine games; Colts are only other team that can make that claim. Five of last six Indy games stayed under total.

Jets (2-9) @ Dolphins (0-11)—Clemens makes 4th career start, Beck 3rd in this epic clash; NY scored 2 TDs on 32 drives in last three games, while only Dolphin TD in last two games came on long punt return, although quagmire at Heinz Monday rendered stats of that game useless. Jets won first meeting 31-28 in Week 3 (-3), almost blowing 31-13 lead in 4th quarter. Miami is winless, but lost five games by FG each- they have some hope, especially now that Ricky Williams experiment ended after five plays. Last four Miami games stayed under total; in their last five games, Dolphins have lost battle of field position by average of 13-20-17-12-22 yards. That’s hard to do.

Chargers (6-5) @ Chiefs (4-7)—San Diego has 22 takeaways at home (+12), seven on road (+1); they lost four of five road games (winning only at Denver) and are 1-4 when scoring less than 23 points, a figure Chiefs have allowed only twice this season (to Packers, Broncos, both at home). Chiefs won 30-16 at Qualcomm in first meeting (+11.5), outscoring Bolts 24-0 in second half, with four takeaways and average of 7.9 ypp. Ravens nay have done Norv a favor last week, forcing Rivers to pass, taking LT’s runs away- Rivers actually looked pretty good. Chiefs are 0-4 since bye, scoring 38 points in last three games (three offensive TDs on last 31 drives).

Seahawks (7-4) @ Eagles (5-6)—Philly played very well in loss at Foxboro last week, but threw three more INTs, are -6 in turnovers last two games; since allowing 13 yards/pass to Dallas in Week 9, Eagle D has improved, holding Brady to 6.4 last week. Philly is just 2-3 at home, may have QB controversy, especially if Feeley plays again and does well. Seattle trailed 19-7 at half in St Louis last week, rallied to win when Rams fumbled on 1-yard line on last play of game- the kind of play that winning teams benefit from (they did nothing to force the fumble). Hawks are 1-3 on grass this year, beating only the 49ers. Four of last five Philly games went over total.

49ers (3-8) @ Panthers (4-7)—Wow, talk about two sorry teams; Niners needed four takeaways and a missed 32-yard FG in OT (after a hideous delay of game penalty) from one of NFL’s best kickers to sweep Arizona, ending 8-game skid- Warner passed for 456 net yards (8.6 yards/try, even with four sacks). Niners had two TDs on 49 drives before scoring four on 14 drives at Arizona. Carolina didn’t give it the ol’ college try once Saints got ahead last week; they haven’t won home game in over a full calendar year (0-5 this year, allowing 27.2 pg), ar e-6 in turnovers last two games, and won battle for field position once all season. An NFL team with no QB is guaranteed to be a disaster.

Buccaneers (7-4) @ Saints (5-6)—Tampa went into shell with a lead and Garcia hurt last week, forced six turnovers, hung on to win third straight game, despite not getting first down in second half (Garcia returned in 4th quarter)- they’ve given up just three TDs on foes’ last 37 drives. Bucs won first meeting 31-14 at home in Week 2 (+3.5), averaging a whopping 15.2 ypp (10-16/243). Saints scored 29+ points in four of last five games, but are just 2-3 at home; they beat Jags, but lose to Rams/Texans, go figure. Bucs outscored last three opponents 43-6 in first half. Bucs are 1-3 on carpet in ’07, winning in Atlanta, losing at Seattle (20-6), Indy (33-14) and Detroit (23-16).

Browns (7-4) @ Arizona (5-6)—Could fill book with way Cards screwed last week’s game up, now they have to bounce back vs Cleveland squad that won five of last six games (covering all six), scoring 27+ points in all six. Cleveland has seven takeaways and 12 sacks in last two games, after having total of 15-7 in first eight; Arizona gave up seven sacks in last two games, mostly because Warner holds ball so long. Browns covered four of five road games (2-3 SU, beating Rams, Ravens). Over will be fashionable pick here, as Redbirds scored 31-35-31 points in last three games, while Browns yielded 31+ in five of last seven outings (over 6-1 in those seven games).

Broncos (5-6) @ Raiders (3-8)—Pay attention to media reports in pre-game shows; if Raiders decide to use rookie QB Russell in this game, Denver becomes play, because it is going to take him while to become NFL QB, not having played as many years as he could have at LSU. Oakland snapped 6-game skid in KC last week; opponents are just 9 for last 35 on 3rd down. Broncos blew 34-20 lead in 4th quarter last week, converting just 1-12 on 3rd down, with several special teams disasters. You think Denver worked on their punting this week, after getting one blocked and another run back for TD in Chicago? Nine of last ten Denver games went over the total.

NY Giants (7-4) @ Bears (5-6)—After disaster vs Vikings last week, younger Manning needs to man up, have strong game vs Chicago defense that yielded 425-430 total yards in last two weeks, vs Seattle, Denver. Giants won last four on road, allowing just 11.8 pg, but they’ve been outscored 51-19 in second half of last four games- you could question their heart. Bears generally win field position (won it in six of last eight games) because of Hester, but Chicago is 0-4 SU and vs spread in game following a win, losing by 34-10/34-31/16-7/30-23 scores. This is only Giants’ third game on grass; they won in London 13-10, on soccer field unfit for NFL, rallied from behind in Week 3 to beat Skins 24-17.

Bengals (4-7) @ Steelers (8-3)—Heinz Field quagmire shouldn’t be much better six days after 3-0 debacle Monday night that almost saw Pitt lose to 2-8 Jets/0-10 Dolphins back/back; Steelers won first meeting 24-13 at Cincinnati in Week 8 (-4); as Steelers outrushed Bengals 160-91, converted 8-11 on 3rd down, scored three TDs in four red zone trips (Cincy had one on its four). Bengals are 1-4 on road, beating Ravens in last away game; they held Titans to pair of FGs on five red zone trips last week. Short work week for Steelers, who have one TD on last 22 drives, after scoring 15 TDs on previous 44 drives in four games before the loss to the Jets.

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Monday, December 3
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Patriots (11-0) @ Ravens (4-7) —Hideous Raven offense (15 for last 59 on 3rd down, -13 turnover ratio in last four games), special teams are putting too much pressure on Baltimore defense; 15 of foes’ last 51 drives started in Raven territory, after only 8 of first 78 did this season. Patriots took Eagles’ best shot last week, still won; they’re 6-0 on road, winning 38-14/34-13/48-27/49-28/24-20/56-10. In second half of those six games, Pats outscored foes 113-34. Emotional Ravens are capable of great defense, but they’ll need their best offensive game of year to move chains enough to take pressure off their defense. Over is 9-2 in Patriot games this season, 6-1 in last seven Baltimore games.

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:52 AM

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL

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Tips and Trends
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Thursday, November 29

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (NFL | 8:15 PM ET)

Green Bay QB Brett Favre has never won at Texas Stadium during his Hall of Fame career, going 0-8 straight-up and 1-7 against the spread there. BIG EDGE: COWBOYS
Dallas knows home-field advantage for the NFC playoffs is likely on the line in this game, and the Cowboys surely don't want to visit Lambeau Field in January with a Super Bowl trip on the line. Look for them to be extra motivated to get a win here so they can play at home again with much more at stake if they should meet the Pack a second time. EDGE: COWBOYS
Packers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Packers are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against the NFC.
Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a winning road team.

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**pm530** · 11-29-2007, 05:55 AM

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday

Thursday, November 29

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NFL Gameday
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NFL Gameday: Packers at Cowboys

The best two teams in the NFC collide on Thursday night when Terrell Owens and the 10-1 Dallas Cowboys face Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers as Week 13 in the NFL gets started early. Barring a New York Mets-like collapse, the Packers and Cowboys are both assured a trip to the playoffs so this game should end up deciding home-field advantage should they meet up again in the postseason.

The Cowboys are coming off a 34-3 rout of the Jets as a 14.5-point favorite on Thanksgiving. Dallas controlled the game from the start, as Tony Romo completed 21-of-28 passes for 195 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Marion Barber had a strong game on the ground with 103 rushing yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Terrell Owens caught six passes for 65 yards and a touchdown, while Jason Witten also had a TD catch, while hauling in four passes for 54 yards. On defense the Cowboys stopped the Jets at every turn, with Terrence Newman and Greg Ellis both delivering standout performances. Newman returned an interception 50 yards for a touchdown, while Ellis recorded a pair of sacks. Ellis is second on the team with 8.5 sacks despite missing the first three games of the season.

The Packers also played on Thanksgiving last week and defeated Detroit 37-26 as a 3-point favorite. Brett Favre continued re-writing the record books while completing 31-of-41 passes for 381 yards with three touchdown passes. Ryan Grant did not show any ill effects from a mild ankle sprain and rushed for 101 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. Donald Driver led all receivers with 10 receptions for 147 yards, while Greg Jennings caught a pair of touchdown passes.

On defense the Packers had a rough day last week after losing two key players to injury. Cornerback Charles Woodson leads the team with four interceptions, but he is questionable for Thursday’s game after suffering a toe injury last week. Defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila also went down with an ankle injury and could be out on Thursday. Gbaja-Biamila is second on the team with 9.5 sacks, 1.5 behind Aaron Kampman who leads the league with 11 after recording a pair against Detroit last week.

It’s been a few years since Dallas and Green Bay have clashed, with their last meeting taking place back in 2004. The Packers defeated the Cowboys 41-20 as a 4-point home favorite in that game. It’s been quite a different story when these two teams meet in Dallas. The Cowboys have defeated the Packers eight straight times at Texas Stadium, and they have covered the spread in seven of those victories. In Thursday night’s game, the Cowboys are a 7-point favorite.

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Announcement

Thursday Trends and Indexes 11/29

Thursday Trends and Indexes 11/29

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