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Power Sweep College Selections
NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
4* PURDUE over Arizona - First meeting. Arizona comes into this one after
B2B home contests where they were annihilated by LSU (59-13) and Oregon
(48-10). Purdue is 4-12 ATS prior to the Irish since ‘81. Arizona is 20-8
ATS as an AD since ‘95. The Boilers are a quality HF going 18-11-2 ATS
since Tiller took over. They were upset by BG in their last home game and
that has only happened twice under Tiller and they won their next home game
both times. This will be the first road start for UA’s QB rotation of Ryan
O’Hara and Nic Costa and neither has been very effective as in the L/2
losses they have combined for an avg of 119 ypg (only 38%) with a 1-2
ratio. Mackovic has talked about the lack of depth the team has, which has
shown up the L/2 games. We won with plays vs Arizona each of the L/2 weeks
and Tiller is an offensive minded coach who loves to score and should roll
it up at home. PU delivered a Late Phone Winner for us LW vs a much tougher
foe on the road. FORECAST: PURDUE 49 Arizona 3
3* Pitt over TOLEDO - LY we used Pitt as a 4* Late Phone Play and the
Panthers dominated with a 37-19 win as 4’ pt HF’s. The Rockets play tough
in the Glass Bowl, but are just 0-3 SU and ATS since 1998 as a regular
season HD. This is Pitt’s 3rd game in a row vs a MAC opp but they have a
road trip to Texas A&M on deck. UT is off the always tough road trip to
Marshall, but were lucky to pull out a close win in Huntington last Friday
thanks to 5 TO’s. Toledo is really a shadow of LY’s team with new starting
QB Bruce Gradkowski is avg just 136 ypg (60%) vs IA competition. Pitt is
1-5 ATS as a DD non-conf AF. QB Rod Rutherford who is avg 287 ypg (64%)
with a 7-0 ratio. His top target is Larry Fitzgerald who has 13 rec (19.0),
and RB Brandon Miree has 186 yds (5.2). The Panthers are the superior team
by far in this matchup as Pitt has our #13 ranked offense and #22 defense
compared to Toledo’s #79 offense and #69 D. Toledo has played the role of
giant-killer very well in the past with SU wins over three Big 10 teams in
the L/7Y but Pitt is the stronger team. FORECAST: Pitt 31 TOLEDO 13
3* Tennessee over FLORIDA - UT is just 3-8-1 ATS the L/12Y vs their
archrival Florida. Zook was successful in his first try vs Tenn with a
30-13 upset as 5 pt AD’s LY. Rain was certainly a factor in the outcome as
UT fumbled the ball 8 times (losing 3), and UF only outgained UT 418-385
(see Past History). The last time these 2 teams met in Gainesville, UT
pulled the surprising upset as they pounded the Florida D for 226 yds
rushing and won 34-32 as 17’ pt dogs capturing the Vols’ first win at The
Swamp since 1971. The Vols are 1-7-1 as a dog overall since 1999, including
bowls. UT faced Marshall two weeks ago and UF runs an almost identical
offense, so they have been preparing for this offense for 3 weeks. The edge
should be with the more veteran team, which this year is Tenn (11 starters
back and 54 lettermen vs 9 starters and 37 lettermen for Florida). Another
angle here is that the Leak brothers will face each other on opposite sides
of the field. Some have speculated that CJ will share some of UT’s
offensive gameplan with his little brother, but Fulmer said he’s not
concerned. UF played better than expected vs Miami 2 weeks ago. QB Ingle
Martin suffered a concussion which caused him to miss most of the 2H and UF
couldn’t find much offense without him in the lineup. The offenses are
close in our rankings (UF #4, UT #6), but UT rates the edge on defense (#9
vs #31) and also in coaching and special teams (#22 vs #89) and gets their
second straight win in the once feared Swamp. FORECAST: Tennessee 30
FLORIDA 27
NCAA OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* LSU over Georgia - Georgia is off a satisfying home win vs S Car, and
the Dawgs have a bye on deck. LSU is off a home win vs W Illinois, and has
a road trip to Miss St on deck. These are 2 tough defenses with LSU ranking
#14 and Georgia ranking #13. UGA is 5-0 ATS as an AD under Richt. LSU is
5-1 ATS as a HF the L/6. This matchup pits UGA’s Top 3 receiving corps vs
LSU’s Top 25 secondary. The biggest edge goes to LSU’s #10 DL vs UGA’s OL
which has 0 starters back from LY. LSU QB Matt Mauck is avg 198 ypg (63%)
with an 8-1 ratio. Top WR Michael Clayton has 23 rec 18.4). UGA will be
without top WR Fred Gibson. They are also without RB Tony Milton, but
Michael Cooper has 217 yds (7.0) in 3 gms. QB David Greene is avg 226 ypg
(68%) with a 3-0 ratio, and is known for his poise on the road with a 9-0
SU record as a starter on opponents’ home fields. LSU is our pick to win
the SEC West this year, and gets our call to expose an overrated Georgia
(#7) in AP poll and we take the stronger team that is at home and could be
our big 5* Play. FORECAST: LSU 27 Georgia 17
2* WASHINGTON over Idaho - LY Washington led 28-3 at the half but UI kept
fighting back and did score a garbage TD with 1:07 left to make it look
closer than it was losing 41-27 as a 30’ pt AD. Idaho’s offense is led by
QB Michael Harrington (Joey’s brother) who beat out Sr Brian Lindgren and
Harrington is avg 196 ypg (47%) with a 1-3 ratio. The Vandals’ D, which has
been a weak spot the last few years, has shown some improvement giving up
19 ppg and 372 ypg after giving up an avg of 35.7 ppg and 464 ypg LY.
Expect HC Gilbertson to be a better HF than Neuheisel was and he is already
1-0. UW is 6-3 ATS off a bye. Wash is still our pick to win the Pac 10. We
won with them as a 3* Key Selection on these pages in their win over
Indiana and side with them over the Vandals here. Pickett should have a lot
of success vs a vulnerable Vandal secondary. FORECAST: WASHINGTON 45 Idaho 6
2* MINNESOTA over Louisiana-Lft - Minny leads this series 2-0 SU and ATS.
LY ULL’s defense kept the game close and trailed just 21-11 at the end of
the 3Q. UM mounted 2 long drives of 95 and 77 yds for TD’s in the 4Q to
cover 35-11 as a 13 pt AF. Those 2 drives helped give them a 22-7 FD edge
and a 458-133 yardage edge. Minny is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS vs current SBC
teams covering by 11.8 ppg. ULL’s offense is struggling (8 ppg) although
top RB Travis Smothers (Warrick Dunn’s brother) already has 253 yds (4.3).
Minnesota starts Big 10 play next week with a visit to PSU but are great as
a big fav under Mason and has already delivered three 4* Wins for Phil
Steele’s Power Plays Newsletter and should cover again here. FORECAST:
MINNESOTA 49 Louisiana-Lft 3
NCAA OTHER GAMES:
Texas A&M at VIRGINIA TECH - LY VT notched the only win at Kyle Field by a
non-conf opponent in RC Slocum’s 13 year tenure (30-1 SU). A&M RB Courtney
Lewis has 174 yds (6.0) which is the most after the first 2 games for an
Aggies RB since ‘97. VT also had LW off and are playing their toughest opp
YTD as they opened with UCF and IAA James Madison. Star Hokie RB Kevin
Jones who has 140 yds (4.1) had to leave the last game after being shoved
into a concrete wall but is expected to be 100% for this one. VT QB Bryan
Randall has hit for 216 ypg (73%) with a 3-0 ratio. This is one of two
games being played on Thursday Night. Phil will choose one and release it
as the Thursday Night ESPN Play which has hit 89-53 63% since 1991 and is
13-6 68% the L/2Y!! Call 1-900-903-9467 or log onto the NCstore
(www.ncsports.com) on Thursday Night after 5:00 ET for the Red Hot Thursday
Night ESPN Play!
SAN JOSE ST at Nevada - SJS had a shutout win over Grambling 29-0 but was
manhandled at Florida 65-3 and was beaten by Stanford 31-10 (SJS did lead
10-0). Nevada beat a IAA team and covered at Oregon. Both teams have high
hopes in the WAC this year and need to win this pivotal game. Since there
are two games being played on Thursday Night, Phil will choose one and
release it as the Thursday Night ESPN Play which has hit 89-53 63% since
1991 and is 13-6 68% the L/2Y!! Call 1-900-903-9467 or log onto the NCstore
(www.ncsports.com) on Thursday Night after 5:00 ET for the Red Hot Thursday
Night ESPN Play!
Hawaii at UNLV - These teams meet for the first time since 2000. Hawaii
leads the series 5-2-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. The Warriors will have a short
week having played Saturday vs USC and they stayed on the mainland this
week instead of flying back home. UNLV pulled off a 23-5 victory at Camp
Randall thanks to their defense (see Misleading Finals). Hawaii also made
that section after trailing USC 62-7 LW. This is the Friday Night Play and
is available after 5:00 pm ET at 1-900-903-9467 or at the NCstore at
www.ncsports.com. Marquee Private Play Hotline Plays are 32-11 74% this
year and the Friday Night Play is 2-1!!!!!
Miami (FL) 30 BOSTON COLLEGE 23 - BC has won an AMAZING 14 in a row ATS in
Big East HG’s (last loss 1998)!!! They haven’t beaten Miami since the 1984
Hail Mary Game (13 in a row SU). Because of the huge difference in weather
and turf, it isn’t surprising that the visitor is 1-8 ATS. LY’s game was
really much closer than the final indicated as BC led 6-3 with 1:13 left in
the 1H, and trailed just 17-6 early in the 4Q, but UM got the frontdoor
cover with 3 quick scores in the 4Q (2 resulting from BC TO’s). The last
time these two teams met in Chestnut Hill, BC almost ended UM’s unbeaten
season as Ken Dorsey threw 4 int, and BC had a FD at the UM 9 when a pass
bounced off a BC player and was picked off and ret’d 91 yds for a TD and a
14 pt turnaround (18-7) but BC covered as 20 pt HD’s. UM is 19-9 ATS prior
to a bye since 1990. BC is 5-0 ATS as a HD since 1999 and Miami is just 1-6
ATS on the BE road. The two biggest mismatches are Miami’s #3 secondary vs
a young QB and on special teams where Miami is #21 and BC is #61. BC QB
Quinton Porter is avg 181 ypg (53%) with a 5-2 ratio. RB Derrick Knight has
rushed for 470 yds (5.7). BC respectably ranks #27 in our pass eff D
rankings. UM QB Brock Berlin is avg 241 ypg (59%) with a 5-4 ratio. RB
Frank Gore has rushed for 379 yds (5.5). BC has earned a reputation as a
giant-killer as of late ending ND’s undefeated streak LY in South Bend and
upsetting Penn St in Happy Valley this year. BC should have won vs Wake in
their home opener as they outFD’d them 28-15 and outgained them 448-316
including 186-46 in the 1H so they could be 3-0 while Miami is allowing
4.76 ypc rushing.
SYRACUSE 34 UCF 27 - Syracuse is 2-0 SU and ATS vs UCF despite being
outgained by 143 yds LY. Syr’s secondary was scorched in 2002 allowing 304
ypg passing (#110 in our rankings). UCF QB Ryan Schneider had 440 yds
(60%), but key blocks and TO’s allowed by UCF were their downfall. Two
years ago when these 2 teams met in the Dome, Schneider left the game twice
because of inj and only hit 9 of 26 for 140 yds. The Orangemen are 10-0 SU
and 5-1 ATS the L/10 vs MAC. LW SU lost outright to Louisville, 30-20,
yielding 451 total yds after allowing 500+ in the 5 previous games. While
the defense has been less than stellar, the Orangemen’s offense has done
well. QB RJ Anderson is avg 259 ypg (62%) with a 3-0 ratio. RB Walter Reyes
has 278 yds (6.3). UCF survived a scare from IAA Florida Atlantic (who did
upset Middle Tenn 2 weeks ago) LW holding on 33-29. The Knights’ D, which
lost several key players before the season including MLB Chad Mascoe
(PS#4LB), has given up an avg of 493 ypg. SU was without 3 defensive
starters LW so call a Northcoast Full Service Line to check their status.
Syracuse NEEDS a win here and WR Johnnie Morant has 15 rec (20.1) in 2 games.
MARYLAND 34 West Virginia 20 - The dog is 9-4-1 the L/14 in the series. MD
has a 5-2 ATS series edge the L/7 in College Park. WV is 4-9-1 ATS the L/14
vs the Terps (fav 12 times). The dog has delivered 5 Underdog POW Winners
for Power Sweep in the L/14Y. LY WV was coming off a 536 yds rushing
manhandling of EC. The Terps were humiliated vs ND and FSU. The result? The
Terps led 28-0 after one and never looked back in a 48-17 drubbing mostly
on big plays. The Fridge is 2-0 SU and ATS over Rodriguez outscoring the
Mountaineers 80-37. UM is 10-1 ATS as a HF under Friedgen. WV was 3-1 ATS
as an AD LY, but was just 3-8 in that role from 1998 to 2001. LY MD went
into week 4 at 1-2, but turned it around and would go 10-1 the rest of the
year. QB Scott McBrien is avg 116 ypg (67%) with an 0-2 ratio. RB Josh
Allen has 204 yds (6.2) and Sam Maldonado (PS#3) has 126 yds (5.0) with
Bruce Perry being ? here. WV is off a home loss to Cincy, which is the
first time in school history the Bearcats defeated WV. The Mounties were
outplayed in the opener by Wisky (442 to 282 total yds) but are 16-6-1 ATS
prior to a bye S/’91. QB Rasheed Marshall is avg 139 ypg (48%) with a 6-2
ratio. RB Quincy Wilson has 285 total rush yds (4.7). Despite the dog’s
dominance, the Fridge should get his team turned around again and WV is in
a rebuilding year.
PENN ST 37 Kent St 13 - These teams last met in 1965. KSU HC Pees was Mich
State’s DC from ‘95-’97 and was 3-0 ATS vs Penn St holding them to 23.3
ppg. KSU is 1-2 ATS vs the Big 10 since 1990 (avg loss 49-9). PSU is 5-1 SU
and 3-2 ATS vs MAC teams. The Lions do have the Big 10 opener vs Minnesota
on deck so this may be a flat spot. Two weeks ago Kent was also in the
Keystone State when they lost to Pitt 43-3 as a 28’ pt AD. This will be the
biggest crowd to ever see the Golden Flashes play. Paterno has been
benevolent to undermanned squads in the past but has gone 3-1 ATS as a fav
of 20+ the L/2Y. The only loss was the opener this year when they beat
Temple 23-10 (-25). Kent’s QB Joshua Cribbs is avg 173 ypg (53%) with a 2-4
ratio but is the team’s #2 rusher. Kent’s defense is allowing 31.3 ppg and
421 ypg. The Flashes are just 2-6 ATS their L/8 as a DD dog. Kent’s K
Travis Mayle kicked a last second game winning FG for the 2nd time this
year, pulling out a 17-14 victory over a IAA team. Penn St has faced
overpowering OL and DL for 2 straight weeks but should not be pushed around
here. The Lions have one of the NCAA’s better LB corps and should be able
to contain the athletic Cribbs and at 1-2 the Lions need a win.
OHIO ST 31 Bowling Green 17 This is the 3rd meeting since 1992. BG is 2-0
ATS despite being outscored 61-19. Two weeks ago BG upset Purdue, 27-26, as
an 11 pt AD. First year HC Gregg Brandon is already 3-0 but 2 wins are over
IAA teams. OSU is just 2-5 ATS vs MAC teams. The Bucks have gone 3-7 ATS as
a DD HF. The Falcons’ QB Josh Harris is avg 250 ypg (63%) with a 6-2 ratio.
He is also an impressive 4-0 SU and ATS vs BCS schools as a starter. BG is
avg 50.7 ppg (two IAA foes) but face our #4 rated defense. BG has a bye
next week while OSU opens up their Big 10 season vs Northwestern. Another
intrastate team almost upset the Buckeye’s LY at the same spot in the
schedule (Cincy 19-23). OSU was impressive vs Washington and led NC St 24-7
LW (see News and Notes). RB Maurice Hall has just 151 yds (3.2). OSU is
coming off a 3 OT game for their 17th straight win. It was their 9th win by
7 pts or less, the 7th game that they were outgained by their opp in that
streak. BG is coming off an easy 62-3 win over IAA Liberty. Harris gives BG
backdoor potential.
ILLINOIS 30 California 20 - UI just faced another Pac 10 foe LW in their
6-3 loss at UCLA, but will be facing a Bears’ team that is a couple of
steps down from the Bruins’ #11 defense. Cal has a couple of extra days off
after their Thursday loss. The Bears are 6-2 ATS on art turf and 11-5 ATS
as an AD. The Illini are 7-1 SU all-time vs Cal with the last matchup
coming in a 44-17 win as 2’ dogs in the 2001 season opener. They are just
2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS vs the Pac 10 at home. Cal will go to JC trans Aaron
Rodgers (PS#14JC) who took over for a struggling Reggie Robertson and led
the team on a comeback vs the Utes. RB Ace Echemandu has 275 yds (5.3)
while WR Geoff McArthur has 25 rec (18.8!). Illinois QB Jon Beutjer is avg
236 ypg (67%) with a 5-4 ratio. RB Ibrahim Halsey has 288 yds (4.5).
Illinois is better than results have shown so far this season as they had a
411-223 ydg edge over Missouri, then were up on Illinois St, 31-3, at the
half before “only” winning 49-22 vs the IAA school. LW they missed a FG
which could have tied UCLA and they have our #36 D while Cal is #67. Will
we use the underrated Illini as our Big 5* Play?
WISCONSIN 41 North Carolina 24 - NC is 5-1 ATS on the road vs non-conf
beating the likes of Pitt, Syracuse and Ariz St outright the L/3Y.
Wisconsin is 2-9 ATS at home vs non-conf. UW is 1-12 ATS as a DD fav
including LW’s shocking 23-5 loss to UNLV. They have the Big 10 opener on
deck. NC OL coach Hal Hunter was at Indy when his Randle El led squad
routed UW in Camp Randall, 63-32, in 2001 as 14’ point dogs. NC is 5-0 ATS
on the fake stuff since ‘95. They had a bye LW but blew a 34-17 late 3Q
lead to Syracuse and lost 49-47 in double OT in their last game. We won a
3* College Totals Play on the Over in that game. NC’s defense has allowed
233 ypg (5.2) rushing but UW allowed 8 sks LW and were held without an
offensive TD at home for the first time since ‘95. RB Anthony Davis who has
425 yds (7.0) suffered an ankle injury on the 2nd series and is ? for this.
His replacement, Dwayne Smith, ran for 92 yds (5.1) but fmbl’d the ball
twice, once inside the UNLV 10 and another which was ret’d for a TD. WR Lee
Evans has 18 rec (19.0). One week after allowing Akron 534 yds, the UW
staff opened up some jobs in the defensive back 7 and held UNLV to 11 FD’s
and 187 yds. Tar Heel QB Darian Durant is avg 231 ypg (65%) with a 4-2
ratio and is actually the team’s leading rusher with 90 yds (5.0). Take
away Durant’s rushing numbers and the team is avg 74 ypg (2.9). In the bye
week Bunting said it’s possible that a number of younger players could see
increased action vs the Badgers and UW should be angry after LW’s upset loss.
WAKE FOREST 34 E Carolina 20 - The Pirates and Deacs have met three times
since 1997, with all three games decided by just 8 points. The visitor is
2-0-1 ATS. LY WF took advantage of 5 Pirate TO’s and two defensive stops
(an int in the EZ and a 4th down sack) in the final 4:00 to turn back EC,
27-22, in Winston-Salem. The Deacons are 2-10 ATS as a DD favorite (rare)
since 1984. The Pirates are just 1-6-1 ATS on the road. WF was actually
ranked #20 in the AP Poll, which is the first time they have been ranked
that high since 1979. The Boilermakers, however, busted that bubble and
gave us a 4* Late Phone Play Winner. This will be EC’s 3rd road game in 4
weeks. EC gave up 361 yds rushing vs W Virg AND Cincy TY and now face
another option team. However, WF ranked #113 in pass D and EC QB Desmond
Robinson is avg 127 ypg (72%) with an 0-4 ratio. WR Terrance Copper has 30
rec (10.5). EC has played much better than the final the L/2 weeks (see
News and Notes) and WF is not in their preferred underdog role.
GEORGIA TECH 23 Clemson 17 - This is one of the hardest fought series in
the ACC, the L/7 have been decided by 5 points or less (6 by exactly 3
pts). Not surprisingly, the dog is 13-1 the L/14 and has covered 8
straight. We have been on the right side of this series for 6 straight
years including a Big Dog Play of the Week, a Thursday Night ESPN Play, 3*
Late Phone Winners and LY even won with a 3* Totals Play on the Under. GT
has the home and defensive edges as GT surprisingly with their smallish,
inexperienced but speedy DL has been doing MUCH better than expected and
have our #16 rated D. True frosh QB Reggie Ball has handled the pressure
well avg 137 ypg (66%) with a 1-2. CU was shut out by Georgia in the
opener. QB Charlie Whitehurst is avg 250 ypg (71%) with a 6-2 ratio but
most of that success has been in their 2 games vs smaller teams. GT looks
like the stronger team but the dog dominates this series and GT has thrived
as the dog the L/2 weeks and lack that motivation this week.
FLORIDA ST 31 Colorado 13 - A relatively inexperienced CU offense will face
our #1 rated D. The Buffs’ defense will try to pressure QB Chris Rix and
force TO's, but Rix has matured greatly TY and the team has responded as
the OL has only allowed 4 sks and have our #9 rated offense. Rix is avg 207
ypg (64%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB Greg Jones has 160 yds (4.4), but was held
to just 13 yds on 14 carries LW vs GT. PS#1 Lorenzo Booker, who missed LW
with inj, is expected to return here and he has 129 rush yds (7.2). CU QB
Joel Klatt inj’d his shoulder LW vs Wash St and is listed as doubtful.
Klatt is avg 236 ypg (62%) with a 6-0 ratio. Walk-on Eric Greenberg will
get his first true start here and he threw for 199 yds (61%) with a 3-2
ratio LW. CU is a solid 8-3 ATS as an AD under Barnett. FSU looked past GT
LW and while we were hoping to expose Colorado in this (and it happened
LW). Could an outstanding and still underrated FSU team could be our big 5*
Play?
Tulane 37 ARMY 20 - In this short series, the home team is 5-2 SU and 6-1
ATS. The Cadets are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS and they have pulled 3 consecutive
outright upsets in this series. In the last meeting here in 2001 TU was
without starting QB Patrick Ramsey and JP Losman had 384 yds. LY Tulane was
in a bad spot here off of a close loss at TCU with S Miss on deck and they
Cadets won 14-10 as a 19 pt AD (see Past History). The Greenies are 8-5
ATS as an AF. TU is off of a 31-28 home win vs Miss St coming from 14
points down with 4:50 left with Losman throwing for 349. Army will be
looking for a QB. Starter Reggie Nevels is out due to injury and backup Zac
Dahman has been ineffective (41% LW). Matt Silva was 10-12 in a mop up role
vs Rutgers and may start here. Tulane is the much better team offensively
and Army got 2 late TD’s LW vs Rutgers to make it respectable. Army has
lost by 27 and 15 at home so far and this may be their toughest foe yet.
NC STATE 38 Texas Tech 17 - NCSt is 3-0 SU and ATS in this short series and
these two have avg’d 76.7 total ppg. LY was supposed to be a showcase for
QB’s but NCSt’s RB TA McLendon had 5 rushing TD’s to help them win 51-48 in
OT. NCSt actually bounced back to win after blowing a 38-10 lead they had
built mid-3Q. Tech is 14-7 ATS after a bye since 1985, but are just 5-6 as
an AD under Leach. TT is just 1-5 ATS on the road vs non-Big 12 BCS conf
foes. This game marks new Tech QB BJ Symons’ first career road start and he
takes a big step up in level of competition here as the team opened up with
NM and SMU prior to LW’s bye. Symons is avg 358 ypg (65%) with an 8-2 ratio
(#22 in NCAA). This is also the first true test for the Raiders’
inexperienced secondary that starts an ex-walk-on and a true frosh at the
CB spots and NM exploded for 377 2H yds. NCSt QB Philip Rivers is avg 356
ypg (76%) with a 10-4 (#11 in NCAA). McLendon, who was expected to miss LW
with a knee inj but saw some time, has 101 yds (4.6). WR Jerricho Cotchery
has 18 rec (16.0). NCSt is 1-2 and needs a win and is the much stronger
team that exposes an untested TT outfit.
NAVY 34 E Michigan 13 - Navy has not beaten a IA team at home since 1999
(15 games). They are coming off a bye week after losing 17-3 at #25 ranked
TCU as a 23 pt AD. Navy blew 5 scoring opportunities in the 1H vs TCU, and
led 3-0 at the half before succumbing in the 2H but delivered a 3* Late
Phone Winner for us. EM is just 2-17 ATS the L/9Y vs non-conf. The Mids are
15-8 ATS the week after a bye. EM has first year starting QB Chinedu Okoro
who is avg 219 ypg (56%) with a 2-2 ratio, but that includes 2 out of 3
games vs IAA teams. Navy is 1-5 ATS as a fav the L/4Y. The Mids have 42
Sr’s and Jr’s in the two deep while EM has just 6 Sr starters. Navy is 3-1
the L/4 as a DD favorite, but haven’t been a DD favorite since their
opening game of the 2000 season. EM has to switch from the pass happy Akron
attack to the bone of Navy and travel for a 2nd straight week.
BALL ST 27 C Michigan 24 - Ball St is coming off a 42-21 loss at Pitt as a
30 pt AD. CM is coming off two close wins the L/2 weeks against IAA teams.
Ball St is 4-2 SU but just 1-5 ATS their L/6 vs CM. In LY’s game, BSU
outgained CM 449-332 and won 38-21 as a 2’ pt AF. The Cardinals starting QB
Andy Roesh was out LW (check status). Former starter Talmadge Hill threw
for 192 yds (63%) with 3 TD’s. CM’s QB Jeff Perry is avg 176 ypg (61%) with
a 4-2 ratio. Their top RB Jerry Seymour, a true frosh, is leading the team
with 346 yds (5.2). The L/6 here in Muncie have been decided by just 4.2
ppg and CM has a bye next week.
Northwestern 24 DUKE 23 - These two fine academic bastions have met every
year since ‘96 with NW enjoying a 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS edge. The visitor is
6-1 ATS. Duke has 18 Jr’s and Sr’s starters that have never beaten
Northwestern. With their win LW vs Rice, Duke has now won B2B games for the
first time S/’95. Duke RB Chris Douglas has 305 yds (5.2). The Devils are
just 1-9 ATS as a fav the L/8Y! They did lead most of LY’s game at NU but
came up short 26-21 (+6). NW opened the season impressively with a 28-20
win on the road in Kansas and had a 20-7 lead over AF before throwing that
game away in the 4Q (3 int). Their new 3-3 defense was picked apart LW by
Miami QB Ben Roethlisberger (353 yds and 3 TD’s) and HC Walker said after
that game that their secondary is still a unit in transition. QB Brett
Basanez suffered an inj to his non-throwing shoulder in the 2Q and played
little after. RB Jason Wright has struggled with a hamstring injury and has
been used sparingly the last 1.5 games (20 yds on 11 carries LW). Their top
OL Trai Essex (PS#2TE) also left the Miami game due to injury and had his
arm X-rayed after the game. NU should play better this week.
NOTRE DAME 30 Mich St 16 - LY ND got a short pass from backup QB Pat
Dillingham for a 60 yd TD late in the 4Q to break the ND’s 5 game losing
streak. MSU won 2 of those games on late 4Q TD passes by backup QB’s. The
dog has won 6 of the L/7 outright in this series. LW MSU blew a 12 pt lead
in the final 1:09 to lose to LT. This is their first road trip to a very
tough place and a big step up in level of competition. ND is 4-2 ATS as HF
under Willingham. MSU QB Jeff Smoker is avg 271 ypg (64%) with a 6-3 ratio
but left LW’s game in the 2Q with toe and inj’s. The Spartans managed just
5 FD’s and 127 yds in the final 3Q’s after 12 FD’s and 234 yds in the 1Q.
MSU has started 3 different secondary combinations in 3 weeks. ND has
scored just 2 offensive TD’s in the L/17Q’s. In their first 2 gms the Irish
have been outgained 243-22 in the 1Q. True frosh PS#12 Brady Quinn may take
over the QB job. The Irish’s young OL (4 new starters) have allowed 9 sks
and they have gained just 108 ypg (3.1) rushing. ND’s defense is the
toughest, by far, that the Spartans have faced this year. ND is coming off
their worst loss since 1985.
LOUISVILLE 48 UTEP 6 - UTEP HC Gary Nord was a UL asst from 1981-1994. He
spent 14 of his 22 years in the business with the Cards and also earned his
degree there in 1979. His brother Greg is in his ninth year as the Cards
asst HC/TE’s coach. The Miners are 0-9 ATS in non-WAC play under Nord. UL
QB Stefan LeFors is hitting 63% with a 4-2 ratio and RB Eric Shelton (PS#3)
has 286 yds (5.8) and will enjoy facing one of the weakest teams in IA ball.
AIR FORCE 41 Wyoming 20 - The Falcons had been cruising right along at 5-0
and ranked #18 nationally before being “upset” by ND LY, the week before
this matchup, and had a nationally televised Thursday Night game on deck.
Casey Bramlet threw for 387 yards in WY’s 34-26 upset. The home team is 1-4
ATS L/5. AF has a large game vs BYU on deck and is just 2-4 ATS the next
year vs a foe that upset them in MWC play the previous year. Bramlet is avg
291 ypg (61%) with an 8-0 ratio. Wyoming is starting 2 rFr at the OT
positions and LW we won with a 4H Late Phone Play on Kansas (+4) over
Wyoming. UW QB Chance Harridge is avg 71 ypg (55%) with a 3-0 ratio and has
rushed for 157 yds (4.2). Most of Wyoming’s yards the L/2 weeks have been
after trailing big. In ‘97 we used Air Force (+2’) here at home as our 5*
College Play of the Year and they rolled to a 14-3 win for us. Will we go
back with AF for this week’s 5* Play?
COLORADO ST 31 Miami (Oh) 27 - Miami is coming off a 44-14 win over
Northwestern as a 3 pt AF. Two weeks ago Miami lost 21-3 vs Iowa, but had a
22-17 FD edge (5 TO’s). They have archrival Cincy on deck. Miami QB Ben
Roethlisberger is avg 301 ypg (70%) with a 3-4 ratio. The OL, which
returned 4 starters from LY, has given up just 4 sacks. The RedHawks are
9-5 ATS as road dogs under Hoeppner. The Rams are 3-9 ATS the L/3Y as a HF.
CSU has their MWC opener on deck vs Utah. They rested a lot of players in
the 2H LW. Two weeks ago vs Cal they had a 448-299 yd edge winning 23-21.
QB Bradlee Van Pelt is avg 246 ypg (57%) with a 6-2 ratio. RB Marcus
Houston (Colo trans, PS#1) has 236 yds (4.9). Miami beat us LW and we were
very impressed with them and we side with the scrappy dog if getting enough
points here.
OKLAHOMA 24 Ucla 10 - These teams meet up for the first time S/’90. UCLA
already visited a Big 12 team in the opener, a narrow 16-14 loss (covered
+3) to Colorado. OU is 4-0 ATS prior to a bye since ‘00. UCLA QB Drew Olson
struggled LW vs Illinois in his first start of the year only throwing for
94 yds (35%) and the Bruins only have our #69 ranked offense. OU also has a
big advantage on the sidelines as Stoops goes against rookie HC Dorrell.
UCLA does have our #8 rated D so points look to be at a premium but the
Sooners’ offense gets the edge with their #11 ranked group.
Michigan 33 OREGON 23 - LW Michigan destroyed ND, 38-0. They now play at
one of the loudest home venues. UO is 16-0 SU and 9-6 ATS in Autzen Stadium
vs non-conf foes. The Wolves are just 4-15-1 ATS as AF’s since winning the
National Title in ‘97. QB John Navarre has lost his L/2 starts SU on the
road vs the Pac 10 but has an outstanding OL in front of him. The Ducks
have not been a HD outside the Pac 10 since 1992 and are 3-0-1 SU and 4-0
ATS in that role since 1982! The situation greatly favors Oregon but UM is
#1 on offense and #4 on defense while UO is just #20 and #38. The Ducks
have a good front 7 although they are currently without DT Haloti Ngata
(PS#1) who is out with a knee injury. UM RB Chris Perry has 549 yds (6.9).
Oregon’s secondary was the weak point LY and while they have shown
improvement this season (pass eff D was #87 LY vs #24 currently) they have
not faced a QB like Navarre or his fine WR’s.
Kentucky 27 INDIANA 24 - These two teams have met every year since 1987 and
there has been a different coaching matchup for the L/4Y. The Hoosiers are
1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS vs Kentucky the L/8. LY IU actually outFD’d UK 21-17 and
outgained them 394-327, but lost 27-17 as a 17’ pt AD (see Past History).
IU is 7-17 ATS since 1995 as a HD. UK is 4-2 ATS as an AF since 1996. Two
weeks ago vs Washington, IU led 13-10 with 11:07 left in the 3Q and had a
242-185 yard edge before UW woke up and took over, outgaining them 305-38
the rest of the game. New Hoosiers’ QB Matt LoVecchio is avg 185 ypg (53%)
with a 1-1 ratio. IU’s new base 4-2-5 defensive scheme has already faced 2
top-notch QB’s in UConn’s Orlovsky and Washington’s Pickett and has allowed
264 pass ypg (65%) with a 6-3 ratio. UK QB Jared Lorenzen is avg 282 ypg
(61%) with a 7-2 ratio in 3 starts vs UI. He has struggled to grasp Brooks’
offense and is avg 198 ypg (62%) with a 7-2 ratio. He played the 2H of the
Bama game with a knee inj which limited his mobility. Star WR/PR Derek
Abney hasn’t been 100% due to a nagging inj. The Cats have been manhandled
at the line of scrimmage allowing 255 ypg rush (5.2) vs the two Div IA foes
they’ve faced. UK is in a Bama/Florida sandwich while Indy is off an easy
33-3 home win over IAA Indiana St.
WASH ST 31 New Mexico 17 - First meeting. NM is 3-0 ATS vs the Pac 10. WSU
is off two tough road games (ND and Colo) and then travel to Oreg next week
for their P10 opener. Washj St is 3-6 ATS their L/9 Sept AG’s and 3-6 ATS
in their L/9 lined vs non-conf. They did not let Colo “slip” away LW
winning 47-26 with big plays and benefitting from 5 TO’s. Matt Kegel is avg
237 ypg (54%) with a 5-3 ratio. N Mex is a better team than their 42-28 and
10-7 losses to TTech and to BYU would indicate. N Mex had a 18-14 FD edge
LW. The Lobos could be in a let down spot here knowing that they had to
beat BYU to win the MWC. Casey Kelly is avg 249 ypg (54%) with a 5-3 ratio.
Dontrell Moore came back from an inj LW and has 251 yds (5.0) while DD Cox
has 282 total yds (4.2).
KANSAS ST 44 Marshall 13 - After playing 2 in a row vs IAA teams KSU takes
on MAC powerhouse Marshall for the very first time. MU lost 34-24 to Tenn 2
weeks ago. They are 3-7 SU vs BCS foes since making the jump up to Div IA.
MU is off a Friday Night matchup with Toledo, a 24-17 last minute loss
which saw them turn the ball over 5 times behind backup QB Graham Gochneaur
who filled in for an injured Stan Hill (knee). Gochneaur threw for 289 yds
(79%) LW and MU’s L/3 poss ended deep in Toledo territory. Hill is avg 293
ypg (67%) and could return. The Cats have a bye on deck. KSU has dominated
Sept HG’s under Bill Snyder going 23-5 ATS. They’re also 23-8 ATS since ‘93
in non-conf games but surprisingly 0-3 this year. KSU is 33-10 ATS as a fav
of 20 or more. Marshall has not done well the L/3Y going 1-6 ATS as an AD.
KSU QB Ell Roberson suffered a hand injury 2 weeks ago and is doubtful.
Backup QB Jeff Schwinn threw for 228 yds (65%) with a 1-2 ratio in his
debut LW vs IAA UMass. KSU has underperformed this year and the Herd plus
big points is worth a look.
TCU 23 Vanderbilt 10 - TCU is just 3-12 ATS vs SEC opponents but they are
4-1 both SU and ATS following a bye which also gives them extra time to
prep for Vandy’s option. TCU faced Navy’s option prior to their bye, and
had trouble containing the Midshipmen. Fortunately they were only down 3-0
at the half because Navy blew 5 scoring opportunities. TCU was fortunate
enough to come back to post a 17-3 win in the 2H, and only allowed Navy 207
total yds. Vandy is just 2-7 ATS in their L/9 as an AD. The Frogs are just
2-5 ATS as a HF the L/7 after compiling an 11-1 ATS mark in that role the
previous three years. The Vandy D has 10 soph starters, yet amazingly held
Ole Miss to just 48 yards in the 1Q of the opener. TCU is a different team
without QB Tye Gunn who will miss 3-5 weeks. Brandon Hassell (PS#79) takes
over and he is a junior with no pass att in 2 years here. TCU also lost top
RB Ricky Madison for the season. Two weeks ago in Power Sweep our System
Section featured The Injury Factor System which won with Atlanta over
Dallas. This system certainly applies to TCU this week. Vandy was held to
221 total yds by an angry Auburn squad at home and now face TCU’s tough #28
D. VU QB Jay Cutler is avg 185 ypg (57%) with a 4-1 ratio, and the top RB
is Norval McKenzie who has 186 yds (5.2).
OREGON ST 34 Boise St 17 - The Broncos are 0-6 both SU and ATS vs the Pac
10 since 1996. BSU is in their second straight AG and they are taking a
major step up in competition after facing IAA Idaho St and Idaho. Boise is
a solid 13-8-1 ATS as an AD. They are not as strong when not on their blue
home turf. The Broncos are riding a 13 game winning streak however and must
now face the explosive OSU offense that is #23 in our ratings (BSU #76).
BSU has not done well stepping up on the road and was manhandled at
Arkansas LY 41-14. Boise QB Ryan Dinwiddie is avg 200 ypg (54%). OSU could
have won the game at Fresno St however TO’s and 5 int cost them the game
16-14. OSU RB Steven Jackson (423, 4.6) was injured LW so check his status.
Their OL weighs 311 per man vs a Boise DL that avg 259. QB Derek Anderson
should be more comfortable at home. LY we won VERSUS OSU with TWO 5H’s but
also used OSU as our Top Weekly Late Phone Play once and all 3 Big Games
were Winners. Will we be looking to use the Beavers for THE Big Play here?
Miss St 30 HOUSTON 24 - Houston is playing their only HG in a 6 week
stretch. Cougar frosh QB Kevin Kolb has followed HC Art Briles from
Stephenville HS and performed well beyond his years. After being welcomed
to the big time by Michigan, Kolb had a pedestrian 157 yds (44%) through
the air but rushed for 92 yds (6.6) showing his versatility in the UH road
win at ULL. He was superb in his only other home game, a rout of Rice. It
may be too late to save Jackie Sherrill’s job after LW allowing Tulane a
come-from-behind 31-28 win. The Waves struck for 17 points in the final
4:50 for the win. This is the Bulldogs’ 2nd straight road game and yet
another gut check for them as they are 0-2 so far in them this season. MSU
should win as they have more talent and their VHT RB’s should find holes in
a UH D allowing 246 ypg rushing and 5.4 ypc.
Texas 49 RICE 10 - This game was moved to the brand new Reliant Stadium and
there should be plenty of burnt orange in the crowd. Rice played the
inaugural college football game in the facility LY in a 37-20 win over LT
as 6 pt dogs. Texas has burned Rice with a 18-1 SU record their L/19. The
home team is 14-5 ATS in the same time frame. These 2 coaches have faced
one another 6 times dating back to their ACC days with the series split 3-3
SU and ATS. UT is 5-13 ATS as a DD fav vs non-conf. UT QB Chance Mock and
backup Vince Young are both Houston-area natives. UT’s defense has likely
been practicing vs the option all offseason as they faced NMSt, Arkansas LW
(allowed 265 yds rush) and still have Kansas St and Nebraska to come. The
Owls are a super 14-1 ATS in their L/15 as a HD. Rice is led by backup QB
Greg Henderson who is playing for the injured Kyle Herm. Mack Brown is 9-2
ATS off a loss and his #1 receiving corps will have a field day vs a Rice
secondary that does not cover well.
Oklahoma St 34 SMU 6 - LY’s contest was all OSU (52-16) as they scored all
7 times they had the ball in the 1H compiling a 45-0 lead with a 345-88 yd
edge. OSU is just 2-5 ATS in their L/7 in Texas and 4-9-1 ATS on grass. The
Cowboys are 12-3 ATS prior to a bye since 1991. SMU is a solid 6-2 ATS as a
DD dog while the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS as a fav of 14 or more. OSU rates a
huge edge on offense in our ratings at #33 (SMU #112). OSU played Wyoming
in their second game and led them 34-0 in the 2Q before they put in their
backups. While SMU is at home they already lost to TT, 58-10, and Miles
likes to put the hammer down when he can and should roll. SMU’s offense
(242 ypg, 2.5 ypc rush, 47% comp) does not bear much of a backdoor threat.
BYU 27 Stanford 20 - The Cardinal are 1-4-1 ATS mark on the road under
Teevens and playing in just their 2nd game of the year. SU QB Trent Edwards
is making his first road start but he was impressive in their opener. BYU’s
“D” is loaded with 10 returning starters and new DC Mendenhall has them
rated as our #24 D. BYU won a very emotional gm 10-7 vs N Mexico in
Albuquerque LW. QB Matt Berry hurt his hand and didn’t play the 2H. Berry
is avg 194 ypg (64%) with a 5-4 ratio. Reynaldo Brathwaite has 281 yards
(7.1). While BYU has played three tough games in a row, they are 3-0 ATS
this year and have an edge playing in game 4 vs the lightly experienced
Cardinal.
FRESNO ST 27 Louisiana Tech 17 - FSU is 4-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in this series
winning by an avg 44-18. FSU won 38-28 here in 2001 but failed to cover as
a 22 pt HF. LY the game was really a flat spot for the Bulldogs as they had
already secured their bowl bid and LT was treating the National TV game as
their “bowl” at home. FSU won nonetheless 45-13 as a 1’ pt AF. LT is just
1-6 ATS in the final game of a 3 or more game road trip. FSU is off of a
hellacious three game non-conf slate that included trips to Tenn and #1
ranked Oklahoma. In their first HG vs Oregon St, FSU won on a last minute
FG a Friday Night ESPN Play Winner. Tech is the only team in the WAC to
have covered at Boise St. FSU was 0-4-1 ATS as a HF LY. Tech is off their
miracle comeback win over Mich St, 20-19. Luke McCown passed for 436 yds
and the Bulldogs scored their final TD to win after recovering an onside
kick. MSU had 3 missed FG’s and QB Jeff Smoker left the game early. QB Paul
Pinegar may return this week for the Bulldogs.
MISSOURI 34 Middle Tenn 10 - first meeting. MTSU is on their 3rd straight
road game. Missouri has only faced Ball St and IAA E Tenn the L/2 weeks.
They have the Border War with Kansas on deck but have managed to remain
focused as they are 8-3 ATS their L/11 prior to KU. They are 13-5 ATS when
laying DD. The Raiders have gone 9-3 ATS as a dog of 17+. MTSU’s once high
flying offense struggled with injuries LY and has continued to sputter this
year despite a healthy QB Andrico Hines who was held to just 103 yds
passing LW vs Clemson. MTSU’s D has allowed 474 ypg the L/2 weeks. They
take on the task of trying to stop MU super soph QB Brad Smith who is avg
225 ypg (72%) with a 4-0 ratio and 109 ypg (6.2) rush.
UConn 38 BUFFALO 6 - UConn QB Dan Orlovsky is avg 294 ypg (59%) with a 10-6
ratio. RB Terry Caulley has 367 yds (6.1). The Huskies are coming off a
huge HG losing 24-14 to Boston Coll as a 4 pt HD. They have another big
game next week at Virginia Tech. Two years ago Buffalo beat UConn 37-20 for
their first IA road win since 1969. UConn is 3-0 ATS as an AF the L/3Y. The
Bulls have switched to a option offense and have been avg 230 ypg on the
ground but the passing game has been nonexistent. They just lost to
Colgate, 38-15, which brings them to 12 straight losses, IA’s longest
losing streak. The Huskies have won big in both games they were favored in
this year and we look for them to do it again to a floundering Buffalo team.
ARKANSAS 23 N Texas 6 - NT opens conference play next week hosting ULL so
they may try to save their players for that game. LY, vs Alabama, the
Eagles lost 33-7 as a 21 pt AD and were outgained 534-141. The Mean Green
is known for their defense but has been shredded for 407 ypg in non-conf
road efforts vs Oklahoma and Air Force. Ark RB Cedric Cobbs is finally
healthy and has gotten loose for 260 yds (8.1). This game is being played
at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock which is Houston Nutt’s hometown. UA
is a perfect 14-0 SU in Little Rock (8-5 ATS). UA is 4-8 ATS as a HF the
L/3Y. The Hogs are in a tough position off the big upset of Texas with
another tough game vs Alabama on deck and LY was outFD’d by Troy St 14-6 in
a similar sandwich.
Arkansas St 21 TULSA 17 - This is a designated “conference game” for ASU.
ASU was 6-0 ATS in league games LY. The home team is a perfect 3-0 SU in
this series. LY when these two met Tulsa had an 11 game losing streak but
was still a 4’ pt AF. The Indians outgained the Canes 346-219. RB Antonio
Warren had 193 of ASU’s 295 rushing yards in that game as ASU gave then new
HC Steve Roberts his first win, 21-19. ASU has been living off its defense
which allowed just 256 yds to Texas A&M in its opener and 259 to prolific
SE Missouri St LW. ASU is just 2-7 ATS their L/9 on the fake stuff. Tulsa
is just 3-11 ATS as a HF. Tulsa is just 2-8-1 ATS in their L/11 at home.
Tulsa is actually 0-4 SU vs the SBC the L/4 and ASU has the better D (#66
vs #105).
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK:
Over the past 19 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 152-85
64%! Last year the Underdog Play of the Week added another 4 OUTRIGHT UPSET
WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is the Underdog Play for this week:
ARIZONA ST +10 over IOWA
The only meeting was in the ‘97 Sun Bowl. Iowa is off their big 40-21 win
over Iowa St and has their Big 10 opener at Mich St on deck. ASU had 2 warm
ups with IAA N Arizona and Utah St and treated them as such resting some
players. The key matchup here will be between ASU QB Andrew Walter (250
ypg, 57%, 6-1 ratio TY) and UI QB Nathan Chandler is avg 105 ypg (61%) with
a 5-0 ratio. Iowa is rebuilding its offense and while RB Fred Russell is
doing well with 340 yds (5.7) they have not had to face a legitimate bowl
team like the Sun Devils. ASU holds the offensive edge here (#38 vs #46)
while the Hawks have the edge on D (#23 vs #60). Iowa was basically
outplayed by Miami (OH) yet won 21-3 via TO’s and LW had just 10 FD’s vs
their rival who they needed to defeat after 5 straight losses. They are
overvalued and ASU was saving everything for this game and should bag the
road upset and wouldn’t that make a nice 5* Game of the Month Winner?
FORECAST: Arizona St 27 IOWA 24
4* PURDUE over Arizona - First meeting. Arizona comes into this one after
B2B home contests where they were annihilated by LSU (59-13) and Oregon
(48-10). Purdue is 4-12 ATS prior to the Irish since ‘81. Arizona is 20-8
ATS as an AD since ‘95. The Boilers are a quality HF going 18-11-2 ATS
since Tiller took over. They were upset by BG in their last home game and
that has only happened twice under Tiller and they won their next home game
both times. This will be the first road start for UA’s QB rotation of Ryan
O’Hara and Nic Costa and neither has been very effective as in the L/2
losses they have combined for an avg of 119 ypg (only 38%) with a 1-2
ratio. Mackovic has talked about the lack of depth the team has, which has
shown up the L/2 games. We won with plays vs Arizona each of the L/2 weeks
and Tiller is an offensive minded coach who loves to score and should roll
it up at home. PU delivered a Late Phone Winner for us LW vs a much tougher
foe on the road. FORECAST: PURDUE 49 Arizona 3
3* Pitt over TOLEDO - LY we used Pitt as a 4* Late Phone Play and the
Panthers dominated with a 37-19 win as 4’ pt HF’s. The Rockets play tough
in the Glass Bowl, but are just 0-3 SU and ATS since 1998 as a regular
season HD. This is Pitt’s 3rd game in a row vs a MAC opp but they have a
road trip to Texas A&M on deck. UT is off the always tough road trip to
Marshall, but were lucky to pull out a close win in Huntington last Friday
thanks to 5 TO’s. Toledo is really a shadow of LY’s team with new starting
QB Bruce Gradkowski is avg just 136 ypg (60%) vs IA competition. Pitt is
1-5 ATS as a DD non-conf AF. QB Rod Rutherford who is avg 287 ypg (64%)
with a 7-0 ratio. His top target is Larry Fitzgerald who has 13 rec (19.0),
and RB Brandon Miree has 186 yds (5.2). The Panthers are the superior team
by far in this matchup as Pitt has our #13 ranked offense and #22 defense
compared to Toledo’s #79 offense and #69 D. Toledo has played the role of
giant-killer very well in the past with SU wins over three Big 10 teams in
the L/7Y but Pitt is the stronger team. FORECAST: Pitt 31 TOLEDO 13
3* Tennessee over FLORIDA - UT is just 3-8-1 ATS the L/12Y vs their
archrival Florida. Zook was successful in his first try vs Tenn with a
30-13 upset as 5 pt AD’s LY. Rain was certainly a factor in the outcome as
UT fumbled the ball 8 times (losing 3), and UF only outgained UT 418-385
(see Past History). The last time these 2 teams met in Gainesville, UT
pulled the surprising upset as they pounded the Florida D for 226 yds
rushing and won 34-32 as 17’ pt dogs capturing the Vols’ first win at The
Swamp since 1971. The Vols are 1-7-1 as a dog overall since 1999, including
bowls. UT faced Marshall two weeks ago and UF runs an almost identical
offense, so they have been preparing for this offense for 3 weeks. The edge
should be with the more veteran team, which this year is Tenn (11 starters
back and 54 lettermen vs 9 starters and 37 lettermen for Florida). Another
angle here is that the Leak brothers will face each other on opposite sides
of the field. Some have speculated that CJ will share some of UT’s
offensive gameplan with his little brother, but Fulmer said he’s not
concerned. UF played better than expected vs Miami 2 weeks ago. QB Ingle
Martin suffered a concussion which caused him to miss most of the 2H and UF
couldn’t find much offense without him in the lineup. The offenses are
close in our rankings (UF #4, UT #6), but UT rates the edge on defense (#9
vs #31) and also in coaching and special teams (#22 vs #89) and gets their
second straight win in the once feared Swamp. FORECAST: Tennessee 30
FLORIDA 27
NCAA OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* LSU over Georgia - Georgia is off a satisfying home win vs S Car, and
the Dawgs have a bye on deck. LSU is off a home win vs W Illinois, and has
a road trip to Miss St on deck. These are 2 tough defenses with LSU ranking
#14 and Georgia ranking #13. UGA is 5-0 ATS as an AD under Richt. LSU is
5-1 ATS as a HF the L/6. This matchup pits UGA’s Top 3 receiving corps vs
LSU’s Top 25 secondary. The biggest edge goes to LSU’s #10 DL vs UGA’s OL
which has 0 starters back from LY. LSU QB Matt Mauck is avg 198 ypg (63%)
with an 8-1 ratio. Top WR Michael Clayton has 23 rec 18.4). UGA will be
without top WR Fred Gibson. They are also without RB Tony Milton, but
Michael Cooper has 217 yds (7.0) in 3 gms. QB David Greene is avg 226 ypg
(68%) with a 3-0 ratio, and is known for his poise on the road with a 9-0
SU record as a starter on opponents’ home fields. LSU is our pick to win
the SEC West this year, and gets our call to expose an overrated Georgia
(#7) in AP poll and we take the stronger team that is at home and could be
our big 5* Play. FORECAST: LSU 27 Georgia 17
2* WASHINGTON over Idaho - LY Washington led 28-3 at the half but UI kept
fighting back and did score a garbage TD with 1:07 left to make it look
closer than it was losing 41-27 as a 30’ pt AD. Idaho’s offense is led by
QB Michael Harrington (Joey’s brother) who beat out Sr Brian Lindgren and
Harrington is avg 196 ypg (47%) with a 1-3 ratio. The Vandals’ D, which has
been a weak spot the last few years, has shown some improvement giving up
19 ppg and 372 ypg after giving up an avg of 35.7 ppg and 464 ypg LY.
Expect HC Gilbertson to be a better HF than Neuheisel was and he is already
1-0. UW is 6-3 ATS off a bye. Wash is still our pick to win the Pac 10. We
won with them as a 3* Key Selection on these pages in their win over
Indiana and side with them over the Vandals here. Pickett should have a lot
of success vs a vulnerable Vandal secondary. FORECAST: WASHINGTON 45 Idaho 6
2* MINNESOTA over Louisiana-Lft - Minny leads this series 2-0 SU and ATS.
LY ULL’s defense kept the game close and trailed just 21-11 at the end of
the 3Q. UM mounted 2 long drives of 95 and 77 yds for TD’s in the 4Q to
cover 35-11 as a 13 pt AF. Those 2 drives helped give them a 22-7 FD edge
and a 458-133 yardage edge. Minny is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS vs current SBC
teams covering by 11.8 ppg. ULL’s offense is struggling (8 ppg) although
top RB Travis Smothers (Warrick Dunn’s brother) already has 253 yds (4.3).
Minnesota starts Big 10 play next week with a visit to PSU but are great as
a big fav under Mason and has already delivered three 4* Wins for Phil
Steele’s Power Plays Newsletter and should cover again here. FORECAST:
MINNESOTA 49 Louisiana-Lft 3
NCAA OTHER GAMES:
Texas A&M at VIRGINIA TECH - LY VT notched the only win at Kyle Field by a
non-conf opponent in RC Slocum’s 13 year tenure (30-1 SU). A&M RB Courtney
Lewis has 174 yds (6.0) which is the most after the first 2 games for an
Aggies RB since ‘97. VT also had LW off and are playing their toughest opp
YTD as they opened with UCF and IAA James Madison. Star Hokie RB Kevin
Jones who has 140 yds (4.1) had to leave the last game after being shoved
into a concrete wall but is expected to be 100% for this one. VT QB Bryan
Randall has hit for 216 ypg (73%) with a 3-0 ratio. This is one of two
games being played on Thursday Night. Phil will choose one and release it
as the Thursday Night ESPN Play which has hit 89-53 63% since 1991 and is
13-6 68% the L/2Y!! Call 1-900-903-9467 or log onto the NCstore
(www.ncsports.com) on Thursday Night after 5:00 ET for the Red Hot Thursday
Night ESPN Play!
SAN JOSE ST at Nevada - SJS had a shutout win over Grambling 29-0 but was
manhandled at Florida 65-3 and was beaten by Stanford 31-10 (SJS did lead
10-0). Nevada beat a IAA team and covered at Oregon. Both teams have high
hopes in the WAC this year and need to win this pivotal game. Since there
are two games being played on Thursday Night, Phil will choose one and
release it as the Thursday Night ESPN Play which has hit 89-53 63% since
1991 and is 13-6 68% the L/2Y!! Call 1-900-903-9467 or log onto the NCstore
(www.ncsports.com) on Thursday Night after 5:00 ET for the Red Hot Thursday
Night ESPN Play!
Hawaii at UNLV - These teams meet for the first time since 2000. Hawaii
leads the series 5-2-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. The Warriors will have a short
week having played Saturday vs USC and they stayed on the mainland this
week instead of flying back home. UNLV pulled off a 23-5 victory at Camp
Randall thanks to their defense (see Misleading Finals). Hawaii also made
that section after trailing USC 62-7 LW. This is the Friday Night Play and
is available after 5:00 pm ET at 1-900-903-9467 or at the NCstore at
www.ncsports.com. Marquee Private Play Hotline Plays are 32-11 74% this
year and the Friday Night Play is 2-1!!!!!
Miami (FL) 30 BOSTON COLLEGE 23 - BC has won an AMAZING 14 in a row ATS in
Big East HG’s (last loss 1998)!!! They haven’t beaten Miami since the 1984
Hail Mary Game (13 in a row SU). Because of the huge difference in weather
and turf, it isn’t surprising that the visitor is 1-8 ATS. LY’s game was
really much closer than the final indicated as BC led 6-3 with 1:13 left in
the 1H, and trailed just 17-6 early in the 4Q, but UM got the frontdoor
cover with 3 quick scores in the 4Q (2 resulting from BC TO’s). The last
time these two teams met in Chestnut Hill, BC almost ended UM’s unbeaten
season as Ken Dorsey threw 4 int, and BC had a FD at the UM 9 when a pass
bounced off a BC player and was picked off and ret’d 91 yds for a TD and a
14 pt turnaround (18-7) but BC covered as 20 pt HD’s. UM is 19-9 ATS prior
to a bye since 1990. BC is 5-0 ATS as a HD since 1999 and Miami is just 1-6
ATS on the BE road. The two biggest mismatches are Miami’s #3 secondary vs
a young QB and on special teams where Miami is #21 and BC is #61. BC QB
Quinton Porter is avg 181 ypg (53%) with a 5-2 ratio. RB Derrick Knight has
rushed for 470 yds (5.7). BC respectably ranks #27 in our pass eff D
rankings. UM QB Brock Berlin is avg 241 ypg (59%) with a 5-4 ratio. RB
Frank Gore has rushed for 379 yds (5.5). BC has earned a reputation as a
giant-killer as of late ending ND’s undefeated streak LY in South Bend and
upsetting Penn St in Happy Valley this year. BC should have won vs Wake in
their home opener as they outFD’d them 28-15 and outgained them 448-316
including 186-46 in the 1H so they could be 3-0 while Miami is allowing
4.76 ypc rushing.
SYRACUSE 34 UCF 27 - Syracuse is 2-0 SU and ATS vs UCF despite being
outgained by 143 yds LY. Syr’s secondary was scorched in 2002 allowing 304
ypg passing (#110 in our rankings). UCF QB Ryan Schneider had 440 yds
(60%), but key blocks and TO’s allowed by UCF were their downfall. Two
years ago when these 2 teams met in the Dome, Schneider left the game twice
because of inj and only hit 9 of 26 for 140 yds. The Orangemen are 10-0 SU
and 5-1 ATS the L/10 vs MAC. LW SU lost outright to Louisville, 30-20,
yielding 451 total yds after allowing 500+ in the 5 previous games. While
the defense has been less than stellar, the Orangemen’s offense has done
well. QB RJ Anderson is avg 259 ypg (62%) with a 3-0 ratio. RB Walter Reyes
has 278 yds (6.3). UCF survived a scare from IAA Florida Atlantic (who did
upset Middle Tenn 2 weeks ago) LW holding on 33-29. The Knights’ D, which
lost several key players before the season including MLB Chad Mascoe
(PS#4LB), has given up an avg of 493 ypg. SU was without 3 defensive
starters LW so call a Northcoast Full Service Line to check their status.
Syracuse NEEDS a win here and WR Johnnie Morant has 15 rec (20.1) in 2 games.
MARYLAND 34 West Virginia 20 - The dog is 9-4-1 the L/14 in the series. MD
has a 5-2 ATS series edge the L/7 in College Park. WV is 4-9-1 ATS the L/14
vs the Terps (fav 12 times). The dog has delivered 5 Underdog POW Winners
for Power Sweep in the L/14Y. LY WV was coming off a 536 yds rushing
manhandling of EC. The Terps were humiliated vs ND and FSU. The result? The
Terps led 28-0 after one and never looked back in a 48-17 drubbing mostly
on big plays. The Fridge is 2-0 SU and ATS over Rodriguez outscoring the
Mountaineers 80-37. UM is 10-1 ATS as a HF under Friedgen. WV was 3-1 ATS
as an AD LY, but was just 3-8 in that role from 1998 to 2001. LY MD went
into week 4 at 1-2, but turned it around and would go 10-1 the rest of the
year. QB Scott McBrien is avg 116 ypg (67%) with an 0-2 ratio. RB Josh
Allen has 204 yds (6.2) and Sam Maldonado (PS#3) has 126 yds (5.0) with
Bruce Perry being ? here. WV is off a home loss to Cincy, which is the
first time in school history the Bearcats defeated WV. The Mounties were
outplayed in the opener by Wisky (442 to 282 total yds) but are 16-6-1 ATS
prior to a bye S/’91. QB Rasheed Marshall is avg 139 ypg (48%) with a 6-2
ratio. RB Quincy Wilson has 285 total rush yds (4.7). Despite the dog’s
dominance, the Fridge should get his team turned around again and WV is in
a rebuilding year.
PENN ST 37 Kent St 13 - These teams last met in 1965. KSU HC Pees was Mich
State’s DC from ‘95-’97 and was 3-0 ATS vs Penn St holding them to 23.3
ppg. KSU is 1-2 ATS vs the Big 10 since 1990 (avg loss 49-9). PSU is 5-1 SU
and 3-2 ATS vs MAC teams. The Lions do have the Big 10 opener vs Minnesota
on deck so this may be a flat spot. Two weeks ago Kent was also in the
Keystone State when they lost to Pitt 43-3 as a 28’ pt AD. This will be the
biggest crowd to ever see the Golden Flashes play. Paterno has been
benevolent to undermanned squads in the past but has gone 3-1 ATS as a fav
of 20+ the L/2Y. The only loss was the opener this year when they beat
Temple 23-10 (-25). Kent’s QB Joshua Cribbs is avg 173 ypg (53%) with a 2-4
ratio but is the team’s #2 rusher. Kent’s defense is allowing 31.3 ppg and
421 ypg. The Flashes are just 2-6 ATS their L/8 as a DD dog. Kent’s K
Travis Mayle kicked a last second game winning FG for the 2nd time this
year, pulling out a 17-14 victory over a IAA team. Penn St has faced
overpowering OL and DL for 2 straight weeks but should not be pushed around
here. The Lions have one of the NCAA’s better LB corps and should be able
to contain the athletic Cribbs and at 1-2 the Lions need a win.
OHIO ST 31 Bowling Green 17 This is the 3rd meeting since 1992. BG is 2-0
ATS despite being outscored 61-19. Two weeks ago BG upset Purdue, 27-26, as
an 11 pt AD. First year HC Gregg Brandon is already 3-0 but 2 wins are over
IAA teams. OSU is just 2-5 ATS vs MAC teams. The Bucks have gone 3-7 ATS as
a DD HF. The Falcons’ QB Josh Harris is avg 250 ypg (63%) with a 6-2 ratio.
He is also an impressive 4-0 SU and ATS vs BCS schools as a starter. BG is
avg 50.7 ppg (two IAA foes) but face our #4 rated defense. BG has a bye
next week while OSU opens up their Big 10 season vs Northwestern. Another
intrastate team almost upset the Buckeye’s LY at the same spot in the
schedule (Cincy 19-23). OSU was impressive vs Washington and led NC St 24-7
LW (see News and Notes). RB Maurice Hall has just 151 yds (3.2). OSU is
coming off a 3 OT game for their 17th straight win. It was their 9th win by
7 pts or less, the 7th game that they were outgained by their opp in that
streak. BG is coming off an easy 62-3 win over IAA Liberty. Harris gives BG
backdoor potential.
ILLINOIS 30 California 20 - UI just faced another Pac 10 foe LW in their
6-3 loss at UCLA, but will be facing a Bears’ team that is a couple of
steps down from the Bruins’ #11 defense. Cal has a couple of extra days off
after their Thursday loss. The Bears are 6-2 ATS on art turf and 11-5 ATS
as an AD. The Illini are 7-1 SU all-time vs Cal with the last matchup
coming in a 44-17 win as 2’ dogs in the 2001 season opener. They are just
2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS vs the Pac 10 at home. Cal will go to JC trans Aaron
Rodgers (PS#14JC) who took over for a struggling Reggie Robertson and led
the team on a comeback vs the Utes. RB Ace Echemandu has 275 yds (5.3)
while WR Geoff McArthur has 25 rec (18.8!). Illinois QB Jon Beutjer is avg
236 ypg (67%) with a 5-4 ratio. RB Ibrahim Halsey has 288 yds (4.5).
Illinois is better than results have shown so far this season as they had a
411-223 ydg edge over Missouri, then were up on Illinois St, 31-3, at the
half before “only” winning 49-22 vs the IAA school. LW they missed a FG
which could have tied UCLA and they have our #36 D while Cal is #67. Will
we use the underrated Illini as our Big 5* Play?
WISCONSIN 41 North Carolina 24 - NC is 5-1 ATS on the road vs non-conf
beating the likes of Pitt, Syracuse and Ariz St outright the L/3Y.
Wisconsin is 2-9 ATS at home vs non-conf. UW is 1-12 ATS as a DD fav
including LW’s shocking 23-5 loss to UNLV. They have the Big 10 opener on
deck. NC OL coach Hal Hunter was at Indy when his Randle El led squad
routed UW in Camp Randall, 63-32, in 2001 as 14’ point dogs. NC is 5-0 ATS
on the fake stuff since ‘95. They had a bye LW but blew a 34-17 late 3Q
lead to Syracuse and lost 49-47 in double OT in their last game. We won a
3* College Totals Play on the Over in that game. NC’s defense has allowed
233 ypg (5.2) rushing but UW allowed 8 sks LW and were held without an
offensive TD at home for the first time since ‘95. RB Anthony Davis who has
425 yds (7.0) suffered an ankle injury on the 2nd series and is ? for this.
His replacement, Dwayne Smith, ran for 92 yds (5.1) but fmbl’d the ball
twice, once inside the UNLV 10 and another which was ret’d for a TD. WR Lee
Evans has 18 rec (19.0). One week after allowing Akron 534 yds, the UW
staff opened up some jobs in the defensive back 7 and held UNLV to 11 FD’s
and 187 yds. Tar Heel QB Darian Durant is avg 231 ypg (65%) with a 4-2
ratio and is actually the team’s leading rusher with 90 yds (5.0). Take
away Durant’s rushing numbers and the team is avg 74 ypg (2.9). In the bye
week Bunting said it’s possible that a number of younger players could see
increased action vs the Badgers and UW should be angry after LW’s upset loss.
WAKE FOREST 34 E Carolina 20 - The Pirates and Deacs have met three times
since 1997, with all three games decided by just 8 points. The visitor is
2-0-1 ATS. LY WF took advantage of 5 Pirate TO’s and two defensive stops
(an int in the EZ and a 4th down sack) in the final 4:00 to turn back EC,
27-22, in Winston-Salem. The Deacons are 2-10 ATS as a DD favorite (rare)
since 1984. The Pirates are just 1-6-1 ATS on the road. WF was actually
ranked #20 in the AP Poll, which is the first time they have been ranked
that high since 1979. The Boilermakers, however, busted that bubble and
gave us a 4* Late Phone Play Winner. This will be EC’s 3rd road game in 4
weeks. EC gave up 361 yds rushing vs W Virg AND Cincy TY and now face
another option team. However, WF ranked #113 in pass D and EC QB Desmond
Robinson is avg 127 ypg (72%) with an 0-4 ratio. WR Terrance Copper has 30
rec (10.5). EC has played much better than the final the L/2 weeks (see
News and Notes) and WF is not in their preferred underdog role.
GEORGIA TECH 23 Clemson 17 - This is one of the hardest fought series in
the ACC, the L/7 have been decided by 5 points or less (6 by exactly 3
pts). Not surprisingly, the dog is 13-1 the L/14 and has covered 8
straight. We have been on the right side of this series for 6 straight
years including a Big Dog Play of the Week, a Thursday Night ESPN Play, 3*
Late Phone Winners and LY even won with a 3* Totals Play on the Under. GT
has the home and defensive edges as GT surprisingly with their smallish,
inexperienced but speedy DL has been doing MUCH better than expected and
have our #16 rated D. True frosh QB Reggie Ball has handled the pressure
well avg 137 ypg (66%) with a 1-2. CU was shut out by Georgia in the
opener. QB Charlie Whitehurst is avg 250 ypg (71%) with a 6-2 ratio but
most of that success has been in their 2 games vs smaller teams. GT looks
like the stronger team but the dog dominates this series and GT has thrived
as the dog the L/2 weeks and lack that motivation this week.
FLORIDA ST 31 Colorado 13 - A relatively inexperienced CU offense will face
our #1 rated D. The Buffs’ defense will try to pressure QB Chris Rix and
force TO's, but Rix has matured greatly TY and the team has responded as
the OL has only allowed 4 sks and have our #9 rated offense. Rix is avg 207
ypg (64%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB Greg Jones has 160 yds (4.4), but was held
to just 13 yds on 14 carries LW vs GT. PS#1 Lorenzo Booker, who missed LW
with inj, is expected to return here and he has 129 rush yds (7.2). CU QB
Joel Klatt inj’d his shoulder LW vs Wash St and is listed as doubtful.
Klatt is avg 236 ypg (62%) with a 6-0 ratio. Walk-on Eric Greenberg will
get his first true start here and he threw for 199 yds (61%) with a 3-2
ratio LW. CU is a solid 8-3 ATS as an AD under Barnett. FSU looked past GT
LW and while we were hoping to expose Colorado in this (and it happened
LW). Could an outstanding and still underrated FSU team could be our big 5*
Play?
Tulane 37 ARMY 20 - In this short series, the home team is 5-2 SU and 6-1
ATS. The Cadets are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS and they have pulled 3 consecutive
outright upsets in this series. In the last meeting here in 2001 TU was
without starting QB Patrick Ramsey and JP Losman had 384 yds. LY Tulane was
in a bad spot here off of a close loss at TCU with S Miss on deck and they
Cadets won 14-10 as a 19 pt AD (see Past History). The Greenies are 8-5
ATS as an AF. TU is off of a 31-28 home win vs Miss St coming from 14
points down with 4:50 left with Losman throwing for 349. Army will be
looking for a QB. Starter Reggie Nevels is out due to injury and backup Zac
Dahman has been ineffective (41% LW). Matt Silva was 10-12 in a mop up role
vs Rutgers and may start here. Tulane is the much better team offensively
and Army got 2 late TD’s LW vs Rutgers to make it respectable. Army has
lost by 27 and 15 at home so far and this may be their toughest foe yet.
NC STATE 38 Texas Tech 17 - NCSt is 3-0 SU and ATS in this short series and
these two have avg’d 76.7 total ppg. LY was supposed to be a showcase for
QB’s but NCSt’s RB TA McLendon had 5 rushing TD’s to help them win 51-48 in
OT. NCSt actually bounced back to win after blowing a 38-10 lead they had
built mid-3Q. Tech is 14-7 ATS after a bye since 1985, but are just 5-6 as
an AD under Leach. TT is just 1-5 ATS on the road vs non-Big 12 BCS conf
foes. This game marks new Tech QB BJ Symons’ first career road start and he
takes a big step up in level of competition here as the team opened up with
NM and SMU prior to LW’s bye. Symons is avg 358 ypg (65%) with an 8-2 ratio
(#22 in NCAA). This is also the first true test for the Raiders’
inexperienced secondary that starts an ex-walk-on and a true frosh at the
CB spots and NM exploded for 377 2H yds. NCSt QB Philip Rivers is avg 356
ypg (76%) with a 10-4 (#11 in NCAA). McLendon, who was expected to miss LW
with a knee inj but saw some time, has 101 yds (4.6). WR Jerricho Cotchery
has 18 rec (16.0). NCSt is 1-2 and needs a win and is the much stronger
team that exposes an untested TT outfit.
NAVY 34 E Michigan 13 - Navy has not beaten a IA team at home since 1999
(15 games). They are coming off a bye week after losing 17-3 at #25 ranked
TCU as a 23 pt AD. Navy blew 5 scoring opportunities in the 1H vs TCU, and
led 3-0 at the half before succumbing in the 2H but delivered a 3* Late
Phone Winner for us. EM is just 2-17 ATS the L/9Y vs non-conf. The Mids are
15-8 ATS the week after a bye. EM has first year starting QB Chinedu Okoro
who is avg 219 ypg (56%) with a 2-2 ratio, but that includes 2 out of 3
games vs IAA teams. Navy is 1-5 ATS as a fav the L/4Y. The Mids have 42
Sr’s and Jr’s in the two deep while EM has just 6 Sr starters. Navy is 3-1
the L/4 as a DD favorite, but haven’t been a DD favorite since their
opening game of the 2000 season. EM has to switch from the pass happy Akron
attack to the bone of Navy and travel for a 2nd straight week.
BALL ST 27 C Michigan 24 - Ball St is coming off a 42-21 loss at Pitt as a
30 pt AD. CM is coming off two close wins the L/2 weeks against IAA teams.
Ball St is 4-2 SU but just 1-5 ATS their L/6 vs CM. In LY’s game, BSU
outgained CM 449-332 and won 38-21 as a 2’ pt AF. The Cardinals starting QB
Andy Roesh was out LW (check status). Former starter Talmadge Hill threw
for 192 yds (63%) with 3 TD’s. CM’s QB Jeff Perry is avg 176 ypg (61%) with
a 4-2 ratio. Their top RB Jerry Seymour, a true frosh, is leading the team
with 346 yds (5.2). The L/6 here in Muncie have been decided by just 4.2
ppg and CM has a bye next week.
Northwestern 24 DUKE 23 - These two fine academic bastions have met every
year since ‘96 with NW enjoying a 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS edge. The visitor is
6-1 ATS. Duke has 18 Jr’s and Sr’s starters that have never beaten
Northwestern. With their win LW vs Rice, Duke has now won B2B games for the
first time S/’95. Duke RB Chris Douglas has 305 yds (5.2). The Devils are
just 1-9 ATS as a fav the L/8Y! They did lead most of LY’s game at NU but
came up short 26-21 (+6). NW opened the season impressively with a 28-20
win on the road in Kansas and had a 20-7 lead over AF before throwing that
game away in the 4Q (3 int). Their new 3-3 defense was picked apart LW by
Miami QB Ben Roethlisberger (353 yds and 3 TD’s) and HC Walker said after
that game that their secondary is still a unit in transition. QB Brett
Basanez suffered an inj to his non-throwing shoulder in the 2Q and played
little after. RB Jason Wright has struggled with a hamstring injury and has
been used sparingly the last 1.5 games (20 yds on 11 carries LW). Their top
OL Trai Essex (PS#2TE) also left the Miami game due to injury and had his
arm X-rayed after the game. NU should play better this week.
NOTRE DAME 30 Mich St 16 - LY ND got a short pass from backup QB Pat
Dillingham for a 60 yd TD late in the 4Q to break the ND’s 5 game losing
streak. MSU won 2 of those games on late 4Q TD passes by backup QB’s. The
dog has won 6 of the L/7 outright in this series. LW MSU blew a 12 pt lead
in the final 1:09 to lose to LT. This is their first road trip to a very
tough place and a big step up in level of competition. ND is 4-2 ATS as HF
under Willingham. MSU QB Jeff Smoker is avg 271 ypg (64%) with a 6-3 ratio
but left LW’s game in the 2Q with toe and inj’s. The Spartans managed just
5 FD’s and 127 yds in the final 3Q’s after 12 FD’s and 234 yds in the 1Q.
MSU has started 3 different secondary combinations in 3 weeks. ND has
scored just 2 offensive TD’s in the L/17Q’s. In their first 2 gms the Irish
have been outgained 243-22 in the 1Q. True frosh PS#12 Brady Quinn may take
over the QB job. The Irish’s young OL (4 new starters) have allowed 9 sks
and they have gained just 108 ypg (3.1) rushing. ND’s defense is the
toughest, by far, that the Spartans have faced this year. ND is coming off
their worst loss since 1985.
LOUISVILLE 48 UTEP 6 - UTEP HC Gary Nord was a UL asst from 1981-1994. He
spent 14 of his 22 years in the business with the Cards and also earned his
degree there in 1979. His brother Greg is in his ninth year as the Cards
asst HC/TE’s coach. The Miners are 0-9 ATS in non-WAC play under Nord. UL
QB Stefan LeFors is hitting 63% with a 4-2 ratio and RB Eric Shelton (PS#3)
has 286 yds (5.8) and will enjoy facing one of the weakest teams in IA ball.
AIR FORCE 41 Wyoming 20 - The Falcons had been cruising right along at 5-0
and ranked #18 nationally before being “upset” by ND LY, the week before
this matchup, and had a nationally televised Thursday Night game on deck.
Casey Bramlet threw for 387 yards in WY’s 34-26 upset. The home team is 1-4
ATS L/5. AF has a large game vs BYU on deck and is just 2-4 ATS the next
year vs a foe that upset them in MWC play the previous year. Bramlet is avg
291 ypg (61%) with an 8-0 ratio. Wyoming is starting 2 rFr at the OT
positions and LW we won with a 4H Late Phone Play on Kansas (+4) over
Wyoming. UW QB Chance Harridge is avg 71 ypg (55%) with a 3-0 ratio and has
rushed for 157 yds (4.2). Most of Wyoming’s yards the L/2 weeks have been
after trailing big. In ‘97 we used Air Force (+2’) here at home as our 5*
College Play of the Year and they rolled to a 14-3 win for us. Will we go
back with AF for this week’s 5* Play?
COLORADO ST 31 Miami (Oh) 27 - Miami is coming off a 44-14 win over
Northwestern as a 3 pt AF. Two weeks ago Miami lost 21-3 vs Iowa, but had a
22-17 FD edge (5 TO’s). They have archrival Cincy on deck. Miami QB Ben
Roethlisberger is avg 301 ypg (70%) with a 3-4 ratio. The OL, which
returned 4 starters from LY, has given up just 4 sacks. The RedHawks are
9-5 ATS as road dogs under Hoeppner. The Rams are 3-9 ATS the L/3Y as a HF.
CSU has their MWC opener on deck vs Utah. They rested a lot of players in
the 2H LW. Two weeks ago vs Cal they had a 448-299 yd edge winning 23-21.
QB Bradlee Van Pelt is avg 246 ypg (57%) with a 6-2 ratio. RB Marcus
Houston (Colo trans, PS#1) has 236 yds (4.9). Miami beat us LW and we were
very impressed with them and we side with the scrappy dog if getting enough
points here.
OKLAHOMA 24 Ucla 10 - These teams meet up for the first time S/’90. UCLA
already visited a Big 12 team in the opener, a narrow 16-14 loss (covered
+3) to Colorado. OU is 4-0 ATS prior to a bye since ‘00. UCLA QB Drew Olson
struggled LW vs Illinois in his first start of the year only throwing for
94 yds (35%) and the Bruins only have our #69 ranked offense. OU also has a
big advantage on the sidelines as Stoops goes against rookie HC Dorrell.
UCLA does have our #8 rated D so points look to be at a premium but the
Sooners’ offense gets the edge with their #11 ranked group.
Michigan 33 OREGON 23 - LW Michigan destroyed ND, 38-0. They now play at
one of the loudest home venues. UO is 16-0 SU and 9-6 ATS in Autzen Stadium
vs non-conf foes. The Wolves are just 4-15-1 ATS as AF’s since winning the
National Title in ‘97. QB John Navarre has lost his L/2 starts SU on the
road vs the Pac 10 but has an outstanding OL in front of him. The Ducks
have not been a HD outside the Pac 10 since 1992 and are 3-0-1 SU and 4-0
ATS in that role since 1982! The situation greatly favors Oregon but UM is
#1 on offense and #4 on defense while UO is just #20 and #38. The Ducks
have a good front 7 although they are currently without DT Haloti Ngata
(PS#1) who is out with a knee injury. UM RB Chris Perry has 549 yds (6.9).
Oregon’s secondary was the weak point LY and while they have shown
improvement this season (pass eff D was #87 LY vs #24 currently) they have
not faced a QB like Navarre or his fine WR’s.
Kentucky 27 INDIANA 24 - These two teams have met every year since 1987 and
there has been a different coaching matchup for the L/4Y. The Hoosiers are
1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS vs Kentucky the L/8. LY IU actually outFD’d UK 21-17 and
outgained them 394-327, but lost 27-17 as a 17’ pt AD (see Past History).
IU is 7-17 ATS since 1995 as a HD. UK is 4-2 ATS as an AF since 1996. Two
weeks ago vs Washington, IU led 13-10 with 11:07 left in the 3Q and had a
242-185 yard edge before UW woke up and took over, outgaining them 305-38
the rest of the game. New Hoosiers’ QB Matt LoVecchio is avg 185 ypg (53%)
with a 1-1 ratio. IU’s new base 4-2-5 defensive scheme has already faced 2
top-notch QB’s in UConn’s Orlovsky and Washington’s Pickett and has allowed
264 pass ypg (65%) with a 6-3 ratio. UK QB Jared Lorenzen is avg 282 ypg
(61%) with a 7-2 ratio in 3 starts vs UI. He has struggled to grasp Brooks’
offense and is avg 198 ypg (62%) with a 7-2 ratio. He played the 2H of the
Bama game with a knee inj which limited his mobility. Star WR/PR Derek
Abney hasn’t been 100% due to a nagging inj. The Cats have been manhandled
at the line of scrimmage allowing 255 ypg rush (5.2) vs the two Div IA foes
they’ve faced. UK is in a Bama/Florida sandwich while Indy is off an easy
33-3 home win over IAA Indiana St.
WASH ST 31 New Mexico 17 - First meeting. NM is 3-0 ATS vs the Pac 10. WSU
is off two tough road games (ND and Colo) and then travel to Oreg next week
for their P10 opener. Washj St is 3-6 ATS their L/9 Sept AG’s and 3-6 ATS
in their L/9 lined vs non-conf. They did not let Colo “slip” away LW
winning 47-26 with big plays and benefitting from 5 TO’s. Matt Kegel is avg
237 ypg (54%) with a 5-3 ratio. N Mex is a better team than their 42-28 and
10-7 losses to TTech and to BYU would indicate. N Mex had a 18-14 FD edge
LW. The Lobos could be in a let down spot here knowing that they had to
beat BYU to win the MWC. Casey Kelly is avg 249 ypg (54%) with a 5-3 ratio.
Dontrell Moore came back from an inj LW and has 251 yds (5.0) while DD Cox
has 282 total yds (4.2).
KANSAS ST 44 Marshall 13 - After playing 2 in a row vs IAA teams KSU takes
on MAC powerhouse Marshall for the very first time. MU lost 34-24 to Tenn 2
weeks ago. They are 3-7 SU vs BCS foes since making the jump up to Div IA.
MU is off a Friday Night matchup with Toledo, a 24-17 last minute loss
which saw them turn the ball over 5 times behind backup QB Graham Gochneaur
who filled in for an injured Stan Hill (knee). Gochneaur threw for 289 yds
(79%) LW and MU’s L/3 poss ended deep in Toledo territory. Hill is avg 293
ypg (67%) and could return. The Cats have a bye on deck. KSU has dominated
Sept HG’s under Bill Snyder going 23-5 ATS. They’re also 23-8 ATS since ‘93
in non-conf games but surprisingly 0-3 this year. KSU is 33-10 ATS as a fav
of 20 or more. Marshall has not done well the L/3Y going 1-6 ATS as an AD.
KSU QB Ell Roberson suffered a hand injury 2 weeks ago and is doubtful.
Backup QB Jeff Schwinn threw for 228 yds (65%) with a 1-2 ratio in his
debut LW vs IAA UMass. KSU has underperformed this year and the Herd plus
big points is worth a look.
TCU 23 Vanderbilt 10 - TCU is just 3-12 ATS vs SEC opponents but they are
4-1 both SU and ATS following a bye which also gives them extra time to
prep for Vandy’s option. TCU faced Navy’s option prior to their bye, and
had trouble containing the Midshipmen. Fortunately they were only down 3-0
at the half because Navy blew 5 scoring opportunities. TCU was fortunate
enough to come back to post a 17-3 win in the 2H, and only allowed Navy 207
total yds. Vandy is just 2-7 ATS in their L/9 as an AD. The Frogs are just
2-5 ATS as a HF the L/7 after compiling an 11-1 ATS mark in that role the
previous three years. The Vandy D has 10 soph starters, yet amazingly held
Ole Miss to just 48 yards in the 1Q of the opener. TCU is a different team
without QB Tye Gunn who will miss 3-5 weeks. Brandon Hassell (PS#79) takes
over and he is a junior with no pass att in 2 years here. TCU also lost top
RB Ricky Madison for the season. Two weeks ago in Power Sweep our System
Section featured The Injury Factor System which won with Atlanta over
Dallas. This system certainly applies to TCU this week. Vandy was held to
221 total yds by an angry Auburn squad at home and now face TCU’s tough #28
D. VU QB Jay Cutler is avg 185 ypg (57%) with a 4-1 ratio, and the top RB
is Norval McKenzie who has 186 yds (5.2).
OREGON ST 34 Boise St 17 - The Broncos are 0-6 both SU and ATS vs the Pac
10 since 1996. BSU is in their second straight AG and they are taking a
major step up in competition after facing IAA Idaho St and Idaho. Boise is
a solid 13-8-1 ATS as an AD. They are not as strong when not on their blue
home turf. The Broncos are riding a 13 game winning streak however and must
now face the explosive OSU offense that is #23 in our ratings (BSU #76).
BSU has not done well stepping up on the road and was manhandled at
Arkansas LY 41-14. Boise QB Ryan Dinwiddie is avg 200 ypg (54%). OSU could
have won the game at Fresno St however TO’s and 5 int cost them the game
16-14. OSU RB Steven Jackson (423, 4.6) was injured LW so check his status.
Their OL weighs 311 per man vs a Boise DL that avg 259. QB Derek Anderson
should be more comfortable at home. LY we won VERSUS OSU with TWO 5H’s but
also used OSU as our Top Weekly Late Phone Play once and all 3 Big Games
were Winners. Will we be looking to use the Beavers for THE Big Play here?
Miss St 30 HOUSTON 24 - Houston is playing their only HG in a 6 week
stretch. Cougar frosh QB Kevin Kolb has followed HC Art Briles from
Stephenville HS and performed well beyond his years. After being welcomed
to the big time by Michigan, Kolb had a pedestrian 157 yds (44%) through
the air but rushed for 92 yds (6.6) showing his versatility in the UH road
win at ULL. He was superb in his only other home game, a rout of Rice. It
may be too late to save Jackie Sherrill’s job after LW allowing Tulane a
come-from-behind 31-28 win. The Waves struck for 17 points in the final
4:50 for the win. This is the Bulldogs’ 2nd straight road game and yet
another gut check for them as they are 0-2 so far in them this season. MSU
should win as they have more talent and their VHT RB’s should find holes in
a UH D allowing 246 ypg rushing and 5.4 ypc.
Texas 49 RICE 10 - This game was moved to the brand new Reliant Stadium and
there should be plenty of burnt orange in the crowd. Rice played the
inaugural college football game in the facility LY in a 37-20 win over LT
as 6 pt dogs. Texas has burned Rice with a 18-1 SU record their L/19. The
home team is 14-5 ATS in the same time frame. These 2 coaches have faced
one another 6 times dating back to their ACC days with the series split 3-3
SU and ATS. UT is 5-13 ATS as a DD fav vs non-conf. UT QB Chance Mock and
backup Vince Young are both Houston-area natives. UT’s defense has likely
been practicing vs the option all offseason as they faced NMSt, Arkansas LW
(allowed 265 yds rush) and still have Kansas St and Nebraska to come. The
Owls are a super 14-1 ATS in their L/15 as a HD. Rice is led by backup QB
Greg Henderson who is playing for the injured Kyle Herm. Mack Brown is 9-2
ATS off a loss and his #1 receiving corps will have a field day vs a Rice
secondary that does not cover well.
Oklahoma St 34 SMU 6 - LY’s contest was all OSU (52-16) as they scored all
7 times they had the ball in the 1H compiling a 45-0 lead with a 345-88 yd
edge. OSU is just 2-5 ATS in their L/7 in Texas and 4-9-1 ATS on grass. The
Cowboys are 12-3 ATS prior to a bye since 1991. SMU is a solid 6-2 ATS as a
DD dog while the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS as a fav of 14 or more. OSU rates a
huge edge on offense in our ratings at #33 (SMU #112). OSU played Wyoming
in their second game and led them 34-0 in the 2Q before they put in their
backups. While SMU is at home they already lost to TT, 58-10, and Miles
likes to put the hammer down when he can and should roll. SMU’s offense
(242 ypg, 2.5 ypc rush, 47% comp) does not bear much of a backdoor threat.
BYU 27 Stanford 20 - The Cardinal are 1-4-1 ATS mark on the road under
Teevens and playing in just their 2nd game of the year. SU QB Trent Edwards
is making his first road start but he was impressive in their opener. BYU’s
“D” is loaded with 10 returning starters and new DC Mendenhall has them
rated as our #24 D. BYU won a very emotional gm 10-7 vs N Mexico in
Albuquerque LW. QB Matt Berry hurt his hand and didn’t play the 2H. Berry
is avg 194 ypg (64%) with a 5-4 ratio. Reynaldo Brathwaite has 281 yards
(7.1). While BYU has played three tough games in a row, they are 3-0 ATS
this year and have an edge playing in game 4 vs the lightly experienced
Cardinal.
FRESNO ST 27 Louisiana Tech 17 - FSU is 4-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in this series
winning by an avg 44-18. FSU won 38-28 here in 2001 but failed to cover as
a 22 pt HF. LY the game was really a flat spot for the Bulldogs as they had
already secured their bowl bid and LT was treating the National TV game as
their “bowl” at home. FSU won nonetheless 45-13 as a 1’ pt AF. LT is just
1-6 ATS in the final game of a 3 or more game road trip. FSU is off of a
hellacious three game non-conf slate that included trips to Tenn and #1
ranked Oklahoma. In their first HG vs Oregon St, FSU won on a last minute
FG a Friday Night ESPN Play Winner. Tech is the only team in the WAC to
have covered at Boise St. FSU was 0-4-1 ATS as a HF LY. Tech is off their
miracle comeback win over Mich St, 20-19. Luke McCown passed for 436 yds
and the Bulldogs scored their final TD to win after recovering an onside
kick. MSU had 3 missed FG’s and QB Jeff Smoker left the game early. QB Paul
Pinegar may return this week for the Bulldogs.
MISSOURI 34 Middle Tenn 10 - first meeting. MTSU is on their 3rd straight
road game. Missouri has only faced Ball St and IAA E Tenn the L/2 weeks.
They have the Border War with Kansas on deck but have managed to remain
focused as they are 8-3 ATS their L/11 prior to KU. They are 13-5 ATS when
laying DD. The Raiders have gone 9-3 ATS as a dog of 17+. MTSU’s once high
flying offense struggled with injuries LY and has continued to sputter this
year despite a healthy QB Andrico Hines who was held to just 103 yds
passing LW vs Clemson. MTSU’s D has allowed 474 ypg the L/2 weeks. They
take on the task of trying to stop MU super soph QB Brad Smith who is avg
225 ypg (72%) with a 4-0 ratio and 109 ypg (6.2) rush.
UConn 38 BUFFALO 6 - UConn QB Dan Orlovsky is avg 294 ypg (59%) with a 10-6
ratio. RB Terry Caulley has 367 yds (6.1). The Huskies are coming off a
huge HG losing 24-14 to Boston Coll as a 4 pt HD. They have another big
game next week at Virginia Tech. Two years ago Buffalo beat UConn 37-20 for
their first IA road win since 1969. UConn is 3-0 ATS as an AF the L/3Y. The
Bulls have switched to a option offense and have been avg 230 ypg on the
ground but the passing game has been nonexistent. They just lost to
Colgate, 38-15, which brings them to 12 straight losses, IA’s longest
losing streak. The Huskies have won big in both games they were favored in
this year and we look for them to do it again to a floundering Buffalo team.
ARKANSAS 23 N Texas 6 - NT opens conference play next week hosting ULL so
they may try to save their players for that game. LY, vs Alabama, the
Eagles lost 33-7 as a 21 pt AD and were outgained 534-141. The Mean Green
is known for their defense but has been shredded for 407 ypg in non-conf
road efforts vs Oklahoma and Air Force. Ark RB Cedric Cobbs is finally
healthy and has gotten loose for 260 yds (8.1). This game is being played
at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock which is Houston Nutt’s hometown. UA
is a perfect 14-0 SU in Little Rock (8-5 ATS). UA is 4-8 ATS as a HF the
L/3Y. The Hogs are in a tough position off the big upset of Texas with
another tough game vs Alabama on deck and LY was outFD’d by Troy St 14-6 in
a similar sandwich.
Arkansas St 21 TULSA 17 - This is a designated “conference game” for ASU.
ASU was 6-0 ATS in league games LY. The home team is a perfect 3-0 SU in
this series. LY when these two met Tulsa had an 11 game losing streak but
was still a 4’ pt AF. The Indians outgained the Canes 346-219. RB Antonio
Warren had 193 of ASU’s 295 rushing yards in that game as ASU gave then new
HC Steve Roberts his first win, 21-19. ASU has been living off its defense
which allowed just 256 yds to Texas A&M in its opener and 259 to prolific
SE Missouri St LW. ASU is just 2-7 ATS their L/9 on the fake stuff. Tulsa
is just 3-11 ATS as a HF. Tulsa is just 2-8-1 ATS in their L/11 at home.
Tulsa is actually 0-4 SU vs the SBC the L/4 and ASU has the better D (#66
vs #105).
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK:
Over the past 19 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 152-85
64%! Last year the Underdog Play of the Week added another 4 OUTRIGHT UPSET
WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is the Underdog Play for this week:
ARIZONA ST +10 over IOWA
The only meeting was in the ‘97 Sun Bowl. Iowa is off their big 40-21 win
over Iowa St and has their Big 10 opener at Mich St on deck. ASU had 2 warm
ups with IAA N Arizona and Utah St and treated them as such resting some
players. The key matchup here will be between ASU QB Andrew Walter (250
ypg, 57%, 6-1 ratio TY) and UI QB Nathan Chandler is avg 105 ypg (61%) with
a 5-0 ratio. Iowa is rebuilding its offense and while RB Fred Russell is
doing well with 340 yds (5.7) they have not had to face a legitimate bowl
team like the Sun Devils. ASU holds the offensive edge here (#38 vs #46)
while the Hawks have the edge on D (#23 vs #60). Iowa was basically
outplayed by Miami (OH) yet won 21-3 via TO’s and LW had just 10 FD’s vs
their rival who they needed to defeat after 5 straight losses. They are
overvalued and ASU was saving everything for this game and should bag the
road upset and wouldn’t that make a nice 5* Game of the Month Winner?
FORECAST: Arizona St 27 IOWA 24
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