Sunday Trends and Indexes 11/25

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, November 25

Good Luck on day #329 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Sunday

NFL trends to ponder for Week 12 ..........

-- Saints are 19-4-1 vs spread in last 24 division road games.

-- Raiders are 6-3-1 vs spread in last 10 division road tilts.

-- Chargers covered five of last seven as home favorite vs non-division opponents.

-- Seattle is 7-14 vs spread in last 21 tries as road favorite.

-- Redskins are 1-5-1 vs spread in last seven games as road dog in non-division games.

-- Giants covered four of last 13 when laying more than 7.

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[pm530]

Sunday's List of 13: Summing up a super Saturday.........

13) Kentucky had 37 first downs, converted 10-20 of its third down plays, gained 564 yards, and lost in OT to a Tennessee club that finds itself in the SEC title game, despite trailing in fourth quarter 24-9 to Vandy last week, and blowing 24-7 lead at half in this one. Senior QBs make a difference.

12) Stan Van Gundy met up again with the Miami Heat, for the first time after he was unceremoniously dumped as coach of the team; Stan's Magic buried the struggling Heat, 120-99.

11) This is hard to believe, but the five QBs who played in the Oregon-UCLA game Saturday combined to complete 15 of 56 passes in Bruins' 16-0 upset win. Ducks are toast with Dixon out with an injured knee.

10) It says Texas beat Tennessee in hoops Saturday, but the team that really beat Vols Saturday was West Virginia, who took lot out ofTennessee in their close loss Friday night.

9) Duke had a game-winning FG try to beat North Carolina; as the kick headed towards goalposts, nitwit Duke players hit their coach with bucket of ice water. One problem: kick wasn't good, and Duke lost when the other kicker missed a field goal in overtime.

8) You don't think SEC is toughest league in country? Late in Auburn's win over Alabama, a police dog bit Auburn player #8 as the player defended a pass deep in the end zone. Lucky the kid had a glove on, but still............

7) UConn has had a terrific season, but West Virginia hung 66 points and 517 rushing yards on them. Mountaineers will be tough out in national title game on carpet at Superdome, if they get invited there.

6) Xavier guard Drew Lavender was originally recruited by an Oklahoma coach named Kelvin Sampson to play for OU, but now both have left Norman; they met up again Saturday, as Lavender's Musketeers upset Sampson's Hoosiers, 80-65.

5) Has there ever been a season where there was so much to be determined this late in the season? College football is so weird this year, that the national title game, as I type this, is on track to be Missouri vs West Virginia. Go figure.

4) Significant score in big scheme of things: Fresno State 49, Kansas State 27. It really helps Hawai'i's case to be in BCS, since it shows middle-rung WAC teams can beat the middle-rung Big 12 clubs, and thats a big thing.

3) Washington goes to Hawai'i next week; Huskies lost 42-35 to rival Washington State in Apple Cup game, a good omen for Hawai'i's passing offense next weekend.

2) Butler's basketball team plays in Hinkle Fieldhouse, where final scenes in Hoosiers were filmed. You can see why; they are like team full of Jimmy Chitwoods, jump-shooting clones.

1) All the money spent on Steve Spurrier and Nick Saban, but they both finish 6-6. Not what the boosters had in mind.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25

Game 199-200: Denver at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 131.773; Chicago 130.697
Dunkel Line: Denver by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2 1/2); Under

Game 201-202: Tennessee at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 127.902; Cincinnati 131.705
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 45
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2); Under

Game 203-204: Buffalo at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 130.096; Jacksonville 136.677
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 7 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+6 1/2); Over

Game 205-206: Oakland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.388; Kansas City 128.466
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3; 37
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 6; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+6); Over

Game 207-208: Houston at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.663; Cleveland 127.999
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Over

Game 209-210: Seattle at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 130.938; St. Louis 123.062
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 8; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Under

Game 211-212: Minnesota at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 127.649; NY Giants 136.204
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 8 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7); Over

Game 213-214: New Orleans at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 126.406; Carolina 128.508
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 2; 38
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under

Game 215-216: Washington at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.835; Tampa Bay 136.493
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 10 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over

Game 217-218: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 115.797; Arizona 132.837
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 17; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10; 38
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-10); Over

Game 219-220: Baltimore at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 122.195; San Diego 138.216
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 16; 45
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9); Over

Game 221-222: Philadelphia at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 128.278; New England 158.994
Dunkel Line: New England by 30 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: New England by 22; 50
Dunkel Pick: New England (-22); Over


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19

Game 223-224: Miami at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 122.486; Pittsburgh 139.708
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 17; 37
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 16; 41
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-16); Under

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Sunday, November 25
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DENVER (4 - 5) at CHICAGO (4 - 6) - 11/25/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (6 - 3) at CINCINNATI (3 - 7) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (5 - 5) at JACKSONVILLE (7 - 3) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (2 - 8) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 6) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-47 ATS (-30.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (5 - 5) at CLEVELAND (6 - 4) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (6 - 4) at ST LOUIS (2 - 8) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 5-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (4 - 6) at NY GIANTS (7 - 3) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 18-38 ATS (-23.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 6) at CAROLINA (4 - 6) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 49-27 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 70-43 ATS (+22.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CAROLINA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (5 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (6 - 4) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 8) at ARIZONA (5 - 5) - 11/25/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
ARIZONA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 5) - 11/25/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
BALTIMORE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
BALTIMORE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
BALTIMORE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (10 - 0) - 11/25/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 26
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MIAMI (0 - 10) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 3) - 11/26/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


Sunday, November 25th

Denver at Chicago, 1:00 EST
Denver: 4-14 ATS vs. NFC North opponents
Chicago: 14-4 ATS vs. AFC West opponents

Tennessee at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 4-1 ATS playing on artificial turf
Cincinnati: 2-10 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Buffalo at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 5-1 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Jacksonville: 15-4 Over off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

Oakland at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Oakland: 8-25 ATS off 3+ ATS losses
Kansas City: 22-10 Under vs. conference opponents

Houston at Cleveland, 1:00 EST
Houston: 1-8 ATS away off a home game
Cleveland: 11-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points

Seattle at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 15-5 Over off a home win
St. Louis: 18-5 ATS after allowing 14 points or less

Minnesota at NY Giants, 1:00 EST
Minnesota: 14-3 Under off a straight up win
NY Giants: 21-40 ATS in November

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 EST
New Orleans: 11-3 Over as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Carolina: 0-6 ATS off a road loss

Washington at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Washington: 5-1 ATS off a division loss
Tampa Bay: 1-8 ATS off BB wins

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:05 EST
San Francisco: 1-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
Arizona: 9-1 Over off BB games scoring 25+ points

Baltimore at San Diego, 4:15 EST
Baltimore: 0-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
San Diego: 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

Philadelphia at New England, 8:15 EST NBC
Philadelphia: 3-7 ATS off a home win
New England: 8-1 ATS off a straight up win


Monday, November 26th

Miami at Pittsburgh, 8:30 EST ESPN
Miami: 0-9 ATS off a road loss
Pittsburgh: 10-2 ATS at home on Monday nights

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Week 12 NFL schedule

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Sunday, November 25
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Broncos (5-5) @ Bears (4-6) — Road trip after Monday night win (third road game in last four weeks) usually tough duty, but Broncos won last two games, scoring 27-34 points- they ran ball for 141-166 yards, ending four-game stretch where they ran ball for average of just 74.3 ypg. Chicago’s last six opponents ran ball for over 100 yards. Bears lost last three home games, giving up 28 pg; they’re -11 in turnovers at home in ’07 (+4 on road), turning ball over 15 times in those four home games. Denver is 4-0 when they pick off 2+ passes in game, 1-5 when they don’t (sluggish 15-14 win at Buffalo in Week 1 only exception) Eight of last nine Denver games went over total.

Titans (6-4) @ Bengals (3-7) — Haynesworth’s injury makes Titans vulnerable to run; they allowed 166-166 rushing yards in last two games, after allowing average of 68.1 ypg in first eight. Road game after Monday night road loss is tough spot for Fisher’s crew, but Titans have big edge on defense here, still ranking 2nd in NFL in yards allowed per game. Cincy is only NFL team allowing 6.0+ yards/play; they’ve 30th in NFL in points allowed (27.9), 31st in yards allowed (383.2/g). Titans turned ball over 10 times in last three games (-8), not good. Bengals allowed 24+ points in eight of last nine games; they’re 1-3 in last four home games, allowing 31 pg.

Bills (5-5) @ Jaguars (7-3) — Buffalo is 2-2 on road, beating sorry Jets, Dolphins, losing at Steelers (26-3), Patriots (38-7); they got whacked 56-10 at home by Pats last week, ending four-game win streak (and 5-0-1 run vs spread). How do they bounce back from that? Jags won three of last four games, have trip to Indy on deck- they’re only one game behind Colts in AFC South. Bills are 1-5 when they allow more than 14 points- they scored total of just 7.7 pg in three games on natural grass (16.2 on turf). Jaguars scored 24+ in each of last four games, scoring even when backup QB Gray was under center. Three of four Buffalo road games stayed under the total.

Vikings (4-6) @ Giants (7-3) — Minnesota needs to run ball to win; in their last three wins (3-3 since bye), they ran ball for 311-378-228 yards (in losses, 131-105-86). Shaky QB play makes it harder, yet more necessary to run it well; Vikings are 1-15 on third down last two games- last time they started same QB who started week before was month ago (Week 7). Giants won seven of last eight games after 0-2 start, losing only to Dallas; teams haven’t run that much on them, since they’ve been ahead (average of just 19.2 runs against them the last five weeks). Vikings are 1-3-1 vs spread as road dog, with away losses by 3-3-10-34 points. Over is 4-1 in Giants’ ’07 games in Swamp.

Raiders (2-8) @ Chiefs (4-6) — Oakland is 0-6 since its bye, losing by 14-2-4-7-11-7 points; they lost first meeting to Chiefs 12-10 in Week 7 at Coliseum, with KC outrushing them 126-55. Raiders are 1-4 on road, 2-3 as road dog, with away losses by 3-14-4-7 points. Chiefs are 0-3 since their bye, losing by 11-16-3 points; they lost three of last four at home. RB Johnson is banged up and Holmes is talking retirement- KC averaged less than six yards/pass attempt six games in row- their QB’s were sacked 18 times in last five games. Chiefs have only five TD’s all season on drives of less than 70 yards- they have one TD on 23 drives in their last two games. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Oakland games.

Texans (5-5) @ Browns (6-4) — Over is 9-1 in Cleveland games this season, with only one of last nine totals under 47; their last three games were all decided by three points- clearly, the most exciting team in NFL. Texans won last two games, have Schaub/ Johnson back in lineup (averaged 9.5/84 ypp last two games); they’re 2-3 on road, 2-2 as road dog, with away losses by 10-20-25 points. Browns won last four home games, scoring 38 pg (13 TDs/41 drives), but last week in Baltimore, they started four drives in Raven territory, only scored 10 points (had scored seven TDs on nine such drives previously). Over is 3-1-1 in Houston road games this season.

Seahawks (6-4) @ Rams (2-8) — Seattle heads east; Hasselbeck is banged up (might not practice this week, but is expected to play) and Alexander still out; they’re just 1-3 on road, losing at Arizona (23-20), Pittsburgh (21-0), Cleveland (33-30), winning only at Candlestick (23-3). Hawks won first meeting 33-6 vs Rams five weeks ago (-8.5), forcing five turnovers, with seven sacks and holding Rams to 221 total yards. Rams won last two games, after 0-8 start; their offensive line is still awful (Bulger was sacked six times in SF), but at least they have Jackson back (133-102 rushing yards in two games since bye). Rams have been outscored 159-58 in second half of games this season.

Saints (4-6) @ Panthers (4-6) — Carolina is 0-4 since its bye, scoring four TDs on 47 drives; they’re 0-4 at home, allowing 26.5 pg, but won first meeting vs Saints, 16-13 at Superdome, despite being outgained by 98 yards. Saints started 0-4, then won four in row, now lost last two, allowing 37-23 points; they’re 2-3 on road, but have become total passing team, running ball just 30 times for 90 yards in last two games. Saints are 0-5 if they score less than 22 points, a figure Carolina yielded in just two of last eight games (Packers, Colts). NO’s pass defense has been torched for 9.8/7.3/8.4 ypp in last three games- they failed to pick off a pass in four of last five games. Six of last seven Panther games stayed under total.

Redskins (5-5) @ Buccaneers (6-4) — Tampa is 6-0 when it allows 14 or less points, 0-4 when it does not (allowed 20-33-23-24 in losses); Washington scored 23-25-23 points in last three games, but Skins gave up 54 points in last six quarters, losing twice to division foes. Washington is 2-3 on road, beating Eagles, Jets- this is their fourth road game in last five weeks. In their last three games, Bucs allowed just 18.3/17.7/19.6 yards/drive, but young QB Campbell has impressed in recent weeks. Tampa has run ball for 124-136-162-149 yards in last four games, after averaging 88.5 over first six games. Last five Washington games went over.

49ers (2-8) @ Cardinals (5-5) — Upset alert for Arizona, which won last two games, scoring 33 pg, and now has shot at playoffs; they’re 5-1 when scoring 20+ points, 0-4 when they don’t. 49ers allowed 20+ points in four of last five games. Cardinals won three of their four home games, have 10 takeaways in last two games, after having total of one in previous three. Niners lost eight games in row after 2-0 start, including 20-17 win over Redbirds in Week 1, when 49ers gained just 194 yards; they lost last four road games, by 21-18-4-24 points. Five of last seven SF games stayed under total. Word is Smith isn’t healing well, so another week of the Trent Dilfer era, which should be good news for Cardinals.

Ravens (4-6) @ Chargers (5-5) — Baltimore lost last four games, turning ball over 14 times in last three (-11); after scoring 14-7-7 in consecutive losses, Boller played well last week (22-41/240) but at end, Raven defense gave out., Browns got lucky doink off upright, and losing skid grew to four. Home side covered last five San Diego games. Chargers are 4-1 at home (3-1 as home favorite), with wins by 11-14-25-2 points, but their play on road has been so bad, it put their season in jeopardy. Bolts have 42-91-79 rushing yards in last three games, as Rivers’ QB play has been so spotty that teams are ganging up on run. Six of last nine Charger games went over the total.

Eagles (5-5) @ Patriots (10-0) — New England playing at very high level, covering nine of ten games; they are legitimate threat to go 19-0, which is why this is first 20-point spread in NFL game in six years- they’re 4-0 vs spread at home, winning by 38-14/38-7/34-17/52-7 scores. This is just second home game for Pats in seven weeks, with four road games and bye in there. They’ve scored 6+ TD’s in four of last five games. McNabb is iffy here; Eagles won three of last four games, but trailed last three at half- they’re 0-4 if they allow more than 6.2 yards/pass attempt. Patriots’ worst games this year are pair of 7.0 ypp (Browns, Colts) so Philly has to do something no one else has done, to pull off biggest upset since 1974.

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Monday, November 26
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Dolphins (0-10) @ Steelers (7-3) — Cameron inserted rookie QB Beck as starter at weird time, with games at Philly, Pittsburgh; he was 9-22/109 yards passing last week, in first NFL start. Pitt is just lot better at home (5-0, scoring 30.8 pg, 4-1 as home favorite), a lot better (2-3 on road, scoring 23.2); they did lousy job of protecting Big Ben last week- Jets had seven sacks. Miami is 0-6 away from (2-2-2 as road dog) with losses by 3-3-3-10-3-10 points. In last four games, Fish lost field position battle by 13-20-17-12 yards, really awful numbers. Not sure if Ricky Williams plays here, after being reinstated by NFL; how good shape can he be in? Only three of ten Miami losses are by 17+ points (Dallas, Patriots were two of three). mmmmm

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Sunday, November 25

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Tips and Trends
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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Carolina has won four straight and eight of 10 meetings with New Orleans. The Panthers won the first meeting this season at New Orleans back on October 7th when John Kasay hit a 52-yard field goal as time expired. EDGE: PANTHERS
The Panthers expect to have All-Pro WR Steve Smith back for this game after he has missed last week's loss at Green Bay with a shin injury. They have lost four straight games and need their game breaker to return to form here if they want to get to the playoffs. EDGE: PANTHERS
Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
Saints are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Panthers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games against a losing team.
Panthers are 1-10 ATS in their 11 games on grass.
The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.


Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Tennessee's previously tough run defense has struggled in the last two games, surrendering 166 yards in losses to both the Broncos and Jaguars. "We have to make tackles," Titans head coach Jeff Fisher said. "It's something that's been a problem for us which was not a problem for us earlier in the year." Insiders believe a lot of that has to do with the absence of star DT Albert Haynesworth, who has missed those games with a sore right hamstring. EDGE: BENGALS
Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer is coming off a career-high four-interception game vs. Arizona, two of which were returned for touchdowns. "It feels terrible, horrible," Palmer said. "I felt like I let the team and the coaches and the organization and the fans down. When you give up four interceptions and 14 points, it makes it almost impossible to win." The Bengals had given up a season-low 247 yards to the Cardinals. EDGE: TITANS
Titans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against the AFC.
Titans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a small road favorite.
Bengals are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.
Bengals are 3-9-1 ATS in the last 13 games against a winning team.
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.


Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Browns are just one game behind Pittsburgh for the lead in the AFC North thanks to last week's wacky OT win at Baltimore. "This team, for whatever reason, thrives on adversity - the tougher the situation, the better we do," said Cleveland kicker Phil Dawson, who kicked both the game-tying and game-winning field goals. "We all had a feeling when we got the call and went into overtime, what a shame it would have been to not capitalize on it." EDGE: BROWNS
Despite the team's success, Cleveland continues to struggle defensively, allowing an NFL-high 29.4 points and 406.3 yards per game. That could mean big trouble against a Texans team that has their best offensive player back in the lineup in WR Andre Johnson. EDGE: TEXANS & OVER
Texans are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games in November.
Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the AFC.
Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
The OVER is 8-0-1 in the Browns last 9 games following a SU win.


Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Injuries continue to take a toll on the Jaguars, who got starting QB David Garrard back last week only to lose leading tackler Mike Peterson for the season with a broken hand. Peterson becomes the eighth starter to miss time this season for Jacksonville. EDGE: BILLS
The Jags have allowed a combined 30 points in their last two games and now face a Buffalo offense that ranks 31st in the NFL, averaging just 268.3 yards per game. That should help ease the blow of losing Peterson. SLIGHT EDGE: JAGUARS
Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC.
Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC.
The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.


Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Chiefs have dropped three games in a row and now must deal with the sudden retirement of RB Priest Holmes, who suffered a neck injury last week at Indy. Holmes was filling in for Larry Johnson, who is still out with a foot injury. That means rookie Kolby Smith will get the start and line up behind QB Brodie Croyle, who has just one start under his belt. BIG EDGE: RAIDERS
Oakland has lost its last five trips to Arrowhead Stadium and 15 of 18. The Raiders continue to play erratic under rookie head coach Lane Kiffin, promting veteran DT Warren Sapp to call his teammates out after last week's loss at Minnesota. "It's not going to change until we get out of our own (darn) way," Sapp said. "There's nothing else to be said. We're just an undisciplined unit from top to bottom." EDGE: CHIEFS
Raiders are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games against the AFC.
Raiders are 23-51-1 ATS in their last 75 games overall.
Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the AFC West.
Chiefs are 12-27 ATS in their last 39 games in November.
The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.


Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (FOX | 1 PM ET)

This game marks a stretch of five straight opponents that are at or below .500 for the Giants, who have won seven of eight following an 0-2 start. All three of their losses have come at the hands of Green Bay and Dallas, who are a combined 20-2 this season. EDGE: GIANTS
Injuries are becoming a bit of a concern for the Giants, who lost both RB Brandon Jacobs (hamstring) and LB Mathias Kiwanuka (broken leg) last week at Detroit. The loss of Jacobs means veteran Reuben Droughns might have to start since Derrick Ward has missed time with ankle and groin injuries. EDGE: VIKINGS
Minnesota got an impressive performance from RB Chester Taylor in last week's win over Oakland, as he ran for 164 yards and three touchdowns filling in for rookie Adrian Peterson. "I ain't the one to start no controversy," Taylor said. "I knew I could do what I did in the game. I'm going to play hard no matter what, and if I get the opportunity I'm going to take advantage of it." EDGE: VIKINGS
Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC.
Vikings are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a winning team.
Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Giants are 10-28 ATS in their last 38 games in November.
The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.


Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck has not practiced all week due to sore ribs, which started the last time he faced the Rams. Hasselbeck was hit in the second quarter of the last meeting back on October 21st, but he battled back to help his team beat St. Louis for the fifth straight time. His status will be key since star RB Shaun Alexander remains out, and the offense has become more pass happy due to that fact. "What he has to do is prepare himself to play without getting the practice time," Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren said. "And I think he can do this. It's not unprecedented at the quarterback position. He can pull it off." SLIGHT EDGE: RAMS
The Rams are 0-4 at home and will be looking to avoid their worst home losing streak since dropping eight in a row there between the 1997-98 seasons. They have won two straight overall at New Orleans and San Francisco thanks to the return of RB Steven Jackson, who has 212 total yards and a touchdown during that stretch. EDGE: RAMS
Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
Seahawks are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.
Rams are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.


Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Bucs own a two-game lead in the NFC South after winning last week and seeing both Carolina and New Orleans lose. "We've got a lot of guys on our football team who know how to win, expect to win and come in here every day preparing to win," Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden said. "The same with the coaches. We realize that we have six wins and that doesn't guarantee us anything. But we are seeing signs of improvement, and for that we're excited to get back to work." EDGE: BUCCANEERS
Tampa Bay is getting increased production from RB Earnest Graham, who is averaging 95 yards in the last four games after totaling 88 in his previous three games combined. Graham is filling in for both Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman, who are out with major injuries. EDGE: BUCCANEERS
Tampa has won the last two meetings with Washington along with the last five between the teams at home. The Bucs are 4-1 at home this season while Washington has lost three of four on the road. EDGE: BUCCANEERS
Redskins are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 game as a road underdog.
Redskins are 0-5-1 AS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC.
Bucs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of 14+ points.
Redskins are 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.


San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (FOX | 4:05 PM ET)

The Arizona Cardinals are looking to win three games in a row for the first time in five years. Cardinals QB Kurt Warner has shined in his last two games despite playing with a torn ligament in his elbow. The 36-year-old has thrown for 470 yards with five touchdowns and one interception in the two victories. Arizona has scored a combined 66 points over those two games, and San Francisco’s road defense has allowed 26 points per game with over 335 yards. EDGE: CARDINALS
The San Francisco 49ers offense has simply disappeared. They rank last in the NFL with 221 total yards per game and 11 points per game. The 49ers have not scored a touchdown since November 4th, and will again be with backup QB Trent Dilfer at the helm. Dilfer hasn't been very strong under center, throwing three touchdowns, seven interceptions while posting a 51.8 passer rating on the season. To make matters worse for this San Fran offense is the Cardinals defense has forced 10 of their 19 turnovers just in their last two games. EDGE: CARDINALS
49ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC.
Cardinals are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Cardinals are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points.
The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.


Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)

Behind a suddenly explosive offense led by Jay Cutler, the Denver Broncos have moved into a tie for first place in the AFC West. The Broncos have scored 61 points in winning their last two games with Jay Cutler throwing for almost 400 yards combined. This is great news for Denver as they face a Chicago Bears defense which was just torched for 30 points at Seattle. EDGE: BRONCOS
While the Bears defense has been sputtering, Chicago's offense actually showed some signs of life last Sunday with Rex Grossman back as the starting quarterback. The Bears are 25th in the league in offense, but gained 345 yards and matched a season high with 107 on the ground last week. The Broncos defense is allowing 133 rushing yards per game on the road, and according to the Bears “Time is running out and we need this win”. EDGE: BEARS
Broncos are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win.
Bears are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 21-10-1 in the Bears last 32 games overall.


Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)

The Baltimore Ravens enter this game losers of four straight, and have to shrug off one of the tougher loses last week against the Browns. Backup QB Kyle Boller is expected to start again after throwing for 279 yards last week, including 255 during the second-half comeback. The good news was his second half performance, and combine that with RB Willis McGahee scoring a touchdown in five straight games you actually have the look of an offense to go with their defense. EDGE: RAVENS
The San Diego Chargers are leading their division thanks to their competition playing just as up-and-down as them. Chargers defense and offense haven’t been close to what they looked liked in 2006, but they find themselves at home where they are 4-1 on the season while scoring 23 points per game. The Chargers lost last years game thanks to some blaming it on “Marty Ball” – and the players have stated they would like nothing better then to defeat their rivals this time in San Diego. EDGE: CHARGERS
Ravens are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games.
Ravens are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Chargers are 13-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points.
Chargers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against a losing team.


Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (NBC | 8:15 PM ET)

Tom Brady and the Patriots look to improve to 11-0 when they meet the Eagles on Sunday for the first time since they met in the Super Bowl. This team has look invincible at times, and look to continue their dominance when again on National Television. The Patriots are averaging 41 points per game, and close to 450 total yards per game at home. The Eagles defense shut down the Dolphins last week, but before that they allowed 63 points to the Redskins and Cowboys. BIG EDGE: PATRIOTS
Eagles backup QB AJ Feeley is now the expected starter, as Donovan McNabb is unlikely to play. He was good for Philadelphia last week, going 13-for-19 for 116 yards and throwing a TD pass to put the Eagles up by 10 points in the fourth quarter."It's nothing out of the ordinary," Feeley said. "It's what I do as a backup.” Philadelphia has won three of four to pull within a game of the final NFC wild-card spot, and Feeley did beat the Patriots in his only career start against them back in 2004. SLIGHT EDGE: EAGLES
Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an undersog,
Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their las7 games following a SU win.
Patriots are 57-24-3 ATS in their last 84 games overall.
Patriots are 38-18-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.
The OVER is 12-3 in the Patriots last 15 games following an ATS win.

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[pm530]

National Football League – over/under plays

NFL
Total bias: Week 12 over/under plays


Sunday, November 25

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NFL over/under picks
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Total bias: Week 12 top over/under plays


Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars over 36 1/2

The Jags have been identified as a defensive team since Jack Del Rio took over the club in 2003. This year things have been out of whack. Jacksonville is allowing an average 351 yards per game. The loss of middle linebacker Mike Peterson won?t help correct this trend.

Jacksonville hasn't played under for four straight weeks but oddsmakers continue to pair low totals with the squad.

Buffalo will still be without running back Marshawn Lynch this weekend, but that should only increase the likelihood of the Bills airing it out.


Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers over 38 1/2

I'm picking on another overrated defense. The one thing you could always depend on with the Ravens was a long-scoring yawner, but as Bob Dylan says, the times they are a changin'.

Baltimore's stout defenders got old quickly. The club is left with a bunch of creaky knees and bad backs.

San Diego will bounce back and find the end zone multiple times.


Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers over 41

The Fish may be forced to put Ricky Williams back in action earlier than planned because of Jesse Chatman's sore ankle. This will be rookie quarterback John Beck?s second start and the Dolphins are curious want to see what the kid can do. My guess is Beck will be passing early and often.

The Steelers are anxious to prove last week's debacle at the Meadowlands was a fluke. Ben Roethlisberger & Co. will do their best New England impression and run up the score against an undermatched Miami team.

Last week's record: 1-2

Season record: 19-14

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[pm530]

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday


Sunday, November 25

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NFL Gameday
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Sunday NFL Gameday

Joey Galloway and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be looking for their third straight win on Sunday when they take on the Washington Redskins. Here is your NFL Gameday …

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers (Total 41)
Bank of America Stadium, 1:00pm ET (FOX)

The Saints have lost two straight games to put themselves in a hole in the NFC South. New Orleans was knocked off 23-10 on the road by the Texans last week to fall to 4-6 on the season. Drew Brees went 33-of-49 for 290 yards passing in that contest, with one touchdown strike and two interceptions. Reggie Bush was held to just 34 yards rushing, but he did have 70 receiving yards. Marques Colston was good for 118 yards.

Carolina has now lost four games in a row to sit at 4-6 as well, and they're tied with the Saints in the NFC South. Vinny Testaverde was at the helm for the Panthers again last week in their 31-17 road loss to the Packers; the veteran QB went 19-of-37 for 258 yards passing, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Steve Smith missed the Green Bay game with a leg injury, but he's now expected to return to action on Sunday.

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) (Total 37.5)
Raymond James Stadium, 1:00pm ET (FOX)

The Redskins now find themselves tied at 5-5 with the Eagles in the basement of the NFC East, and they'll need to get a win this week to move back over the .500 mark. Washington lost their second in a row last week, falling 28-23 on the road to the rival Cowboys. Jason Campbell was pass-happy for the 'Skins in that contest, going 33-of-54 for 348 yards with two TDs and an INT. Clinton Portis rushed for 36 yards on 12 carries.

Tampa Bay now has a two-game lead in the NFC South thanks to their two-game winning streak. The Bucs blasted the Falcons 31-7 on the road last weekend, losing their shutout in the last minute of play. Jeff Garcia went 10-of-20 for 159 yards in that win, with two touchdown passes, while Earnest Graham ran for 102 yards and a score on 26 carries. Galloway picked up 63 receiving yards, and he also found the end zone.

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (-2) (Total 41)
Soldier Field, 4:15pm ET (CBS)

The Broncos have won two games in a row and suddenly they're tied for top spot in the AFC West with the Chargers. Denver got past the Titans 34-20 last Monday night, with Jay Cutler going 16-of-21 for 200 yards and two touchdowns. Selvin Young ran for just 54 yards on 14 carries in that contest, and both he and Travis Henry have been battling knee injuries over the past week. Javon Walker is expected to return to action Sunday.

Chicago has fallen into a last-place tie with the Vikings in the NFC North thanks to their 30-23 road loss to the Seahawks last weekend. Rex Grossman went 24-of-37 for 266 yards in that contest, with no TDs and no INTs. Cedric Benson ran for 89 yards on 11 carries versus Seattle, and he managed to find the end zone in the first quarter. Bernard Berrian picked up 102 yards through the air, and Robbie Gould booted three field goals.

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-22.5) (Total 50)
Gillette Stadium, 8:15pm ET (NBC)

The Eagles will be in tough against the undefeated Patriots on Sunday, and at best they'll have a hobbled Donovan McNabb at quarterback. McNabb, who was still listed as a game-time decision at press time, has both ankle and thumb injuries and definitely won't be 100% if he goes. The Eagles slipped past lowly Miami 17-7 last time out, with Brian Westbrook rushing for 148 yards on 32 carries and McNabb throwing two picks.

New England took a 35-7 lead into halftime against the Bills last weekend and cruised from there to an easy 56-10 victory over their fellow AFC East team. Tom Brady added to his impressive season totals by going 31-of-39 for 373 yards and tossing five TD strikes. Randy Moss had four of those catches and picked up 128 receiving yards, while Wes Welker had seven catches for 78 yards. Ben Watson had the other scoring catch.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Underdogs

NFL
Underdogs


Sunday, November 25

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NFL underdogs: picks
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NFL underdogs: Week 12 picks

It’s hard for me to fathom, but I’m aware enough to realize some people (fools) just don’t share my love for pointspreads.

One of these individuals is Brian Dawkins, who isn’t allowed to like pointspreads anyway because he’s the starting free safety for the Philadelphia Eagles and the NFL frowns on any sort of Pete Rose-like behavior.

So it was no huge surprise that he was a bit stiff when questioned about his Philadelphia Eagles being huge 23-point underdogs against the evil New England Patriots this weekend.

''I really don't care [about the point spread],'' Dawkins was quoted as saying in the Allenton Morning Call this week. “That's for people who are going to put down money on the game, and it doesn't have anything to do with me.

''If we lose by three, then we covered, does that means we're fine? Now we're a pretty good team? No, I want to win the game.”

And I’d like to be the NFL commissioner with a nice box of cigars and a Jacuzzi in my office, but that’s probably not going to happen either, Brian.

With Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb nursing a bad ankle and a fat thumb on his throwing hand, oddsmakers opened New England as a 17-point favorite earlier this week. A flood of early sharp action jumped that line to -22 within hours and it’s currently closing in on 24 points at some sportsbooks in Vegas.

To put it in perspective, this is the highest line bettors have seen since the San Francisco 49ers beat the Atlanta Falcons 25-17 way back in 1987, but couldn’t cover as 23 ½-point favorites. Before that, the defending champion 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers were pegged as 24-point favorites against the expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and easily covered with a 42-0 win.

The point is this kind of spread just doesn’t pop up everyday. But neither does a team like this year’s New England Patriots.

They’re unbeaten through 10 games and have already covered four pointspreads of more than 15 points. Patriots mania is hitting a fever pitch already and it’s only Week 12.

It’s not just that they’re undefeated and 9-1 against the spread either - they’re absolutely embarrassing the rest of the league. Traditionalists hate it, but I love seeing the Pats run their regular offence in the second half when they’re up four touchdowns.

Bad habits start brewing as soon as you start letting up. Maybe the guys get a little lazy; maybe they don’t practice quite as hard. The next thing you know, Bill Belichick is blowing a gasket from under his hoodie when his starters are jumping offside and missing blocking assignments.

By keeping his team’s drive and intensity through the roof no matter what the score is, the Patriots stay sharp. Sharp enough that there’s no way I’m betting against them just yet despite completely ridiculous pointspreads like this one.

Houston at Cleveland – Texans +3 ½

Houston’s a totally different team now that wideout Andre Johnson is back burning defensive backs again. A nasty knee injury has kept him out of all but three games this year and he has still managed 382 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

The Texans’ defense is improving too. Last week they held the throw-it-around Saints to just 10 points.

Baltimore at San Diego – Ravens +9 ½

Baltimore, how about some offense? Simple as easing Mr. Steve McNair into his retirement rocker.

Kyle Boller stepped in and threw for 279 yards against the Browns last week. Granted, it was against the Browns’ defense, but McNair needed his last three starts to rack up that kind of yardage.

I think the Ravens are going to be able to rattle Philip Rivers, though they’re also going to have to protect Boller better if they don’t want him to end up like McNair.

San Francisco at Arizona – 49ers +10 ½

I know San Francisco’s terrible, but I just don’t think I can start chugging the Cardinals’ Kool-Aid just yet.

I just spent close to half an hour trying to find out the last time Arizona was a double-digit favorite. Had to go all the way back to 1993 when the redbirds were at home to, you guessed it, the New England Patriots. And of course, the Cards lost outright.

I know a sign when I see one.

Last week’s record: 1-2

Season record to date: 17-15-1

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[pm530]

National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL
NFL poolies' cheat sheet


Sunday, November 25

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Cheat Sheet
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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 12

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8)

Why Bills Cover: Coming off worst loss in franchise history. Are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Jacksonville. Jags will be without leading tackler Mike Peterson who has a broken hand. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in last five meetings. Road team is 5-2 ATS in last seven meetings.

Why Jaguars cover: Fighting for AFC South lead. QB David Garrard is the AFC’s third-ranked passer and has yet to thrown an interception this year. Bills leading rusher Marshawn Lynch unlikely to play because of an ankle injury.

Total (36): Over is 4-1-1 in Jaguars’ last six games.


Houston at Cleveland (-3 ½)

Why Texans cover: Have covered every game with receiver Andre Johnson in the lineup. Won last two meetings. Browns defense has allowed most first downs in the NFL.

Why Browns cover: Have covered in five straight games and eight of last nine. Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five versus AFC. Houston has only 15 sacks all season.

Total (51): Over is 5-1-1 in Texans’ last seven road games and 9-0-1 in Browns’ last 10 games overall. Both teams have offenses ranked in the top 10.


Minnesota at N.Y. Giants (-7 ½)

Why Vikings cover: Have the league’s best rushing attack by far (177.9 yards per game) even without star rookie Adrian Peterson. Giants likely to be without running back Brandon Jacobs (hamstring) and linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka (broken leg). Eli Manning has thrown four interceptions and only one TD in two career games versus the Vikings. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Why Giants cover: Facing worst pass defense in NFL. Only San Francisco has a worse passing offense than Minnesota. Lead the league with 34 sacks. Vikings are 1-6-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

Total (41): Over is 4-1 in Giants’ last five home games.


New Orleans at Carolina (+3)

Why Saints cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Carolina. Panthers have lost four straight games and are ranked 30th in the league in passing first downs and 29th in rushing touchdowns. Road team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

Why Panthers cover: Drew Brees has only thrown one touchdown in four career games against Carolina. Underdog is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings. Saints defense allowing 5.86 yards per offensive play, worst in the league. New Orleans has a minus-10 turnover differential, worst in the NFL.

Total (41): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Carolina.


Oakland at Kansas City (-5 ½)

Why Raiders cover: Are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Kansas City. Without Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes, Chiefs will start rookie Kolby Smith at running back. Road team is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Why Chiefs cover: Have won last nine meetings. Have only allowed nine passing TDs this season. Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (34 ½): Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.


Seattle at St. Louis (+3)

Why Seahawks cover: Have won last five meetings. Maurice Morris rushed for 174 yards and two touchdowns in the last two games while filling in for the injured Shaun Alexander. Rams have allowed the second-most sacks in the league.

Why Rams cover: Have won two games in a row after losing their first eight. Matt Hasselbeck dealing with rib injury that kept him out of practice most of the week. Seattle is 1-3 ATS on the road this season. Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Total (45): Over is 4-0 in Rams’ last four games as a home underdog.


Tennessee at Cincinnati (+1 ½)

Why Titans cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Cincinnati. Vince Young is averaging 281 yards passing in his last two games after averaging only 106.9 in his first eight. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and has won seven of the last 10 games.

Why Bengals cover: Carson Palmer has thrown for 519 yards and two scores in two career games against Tennessee. Titans’ defense has allowed 166 yards rushing in each of their last two games, both losses. Chris Henry has 180 yards receiving and a score since returning from suspension.

Total (47): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings. Both teams struggling defensively.


Washington at Tampa Bay (-3)

Why Redskins cover: Are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Clinton Portis has rushed for 292 yards and two TDs in two career games versus Tampa Bay.

Why Buccaneers cover: Fifth-ranked defense holding opponents to 15.1 points per game. Earnest Graham is averaging 110 all-purpose yards per game since taking over as the starting running back.

Total (38): Over is 5-0 in Redskins’ last five games overall.


San Francisco at Arizona (-10 ½)

Why 49ers cover: Patrick Willis leads the league with 92 tackles. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Why Cardinals cover: Have won four of the last five meetings. San Francisco ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories and are second-last in the NFL with a minus-nine turnover differential. Frank Gore still struggling through an ankle injury. San Fran is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.

Total (37 ½): Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.


Baltimore at San Diego (-9 ½)

Why Ravens cover: Have AFC’s top-ranked rush defense, holding opponents to 78 yards per contest. Won the last three meetings. Held Philip Rivers to 145 yards, one touchdown and an interception in their last meeting.

Why Chargers cover: Willis McGahee only averages 2.5 yards per carry for his career against San Diego. Ravens lead the NFL with 17 fumbles. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (38 ½): Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.


Denver at Chicago (-1 ½)

Why Broncos cover: Have won four of last five meetings. Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Chicago has the worst rush defense in the NFC while Denver averages 4.7 yards per rushing play, second best in the league.

Why Bears cover: Rex Grossman has played well since regaining the starting quarterback job from Brian Griese. Cedric Benson has touchdowns in his last two games and gets to face a Broncos rushing defense that ranks 30th in the NFL. Broncos could be without running backs Travis Henry and Selvin Young who are both injured.

Total (41): Over is 5-1 in Broncos’ last six road games and 6-0 in their last six games as underdogs.


Philadelphia at New England (-22 ½)

Why Eagles cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs. Road team has won three of last four meetings. Spread is 6-points larger than any New England has faced this season. Brian Westbrook leads the NFL with 1,367 total yards.

Why Patriots cover: Have won last five meetings. Incredible offense averaging 41.1 points per game and showing no signs of slowing down. Donovan McNabb left last game with an injury which means A.J. Feeley could be Eagles’ starting QB.

Total (50 ½): Over is 7-0 in Patriots’ last seven home games and 6-1 in Eagles’ last seven games as road underdogs.


Miami at Pittsburgh (-16)

Why Dolphins cover: Are averaging 5.4 yards per rushing play, third best in the NFL. Ricky Williams returns to face a Pittsburgh rush defense that allowed Thomas Jones to gain 117 yards on the ground last week. Held Ben Roethlisberger to 163 yards passing in their last meeting.

Why Steelers cover: Have won last four meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Dolphins’ defense has only 12 sacks this season and has allowed 30 total touchdowns. Willie Parker rushed for 115 yards in his only game against Miami.

Total (41): Over is 6-1-1 in Steelers’ last eight home games versus a team with a losing road record.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet

Grey Cup

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Sunday, November 25
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WINNIPEG (12 - 7 - 1) vs. SASKATCHEWAN (14 - 6) - 11/25/2007, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a division game this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 72-44 ATS (+23.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-3 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Write up

CFL
Write-up
CFL Grey Cup


Sunday, November 25

Grey Cup (@ Toronto)

Winnipeg (12-7-1) vs Saskatchewan (14-6)

Both second place teams get to Grey Cup final; Roughriders are 8-1 in last nine games, losing meaningless game to Toronto in last wk of regular season- they beat Winnipeg 31-26 in Regina in Week 10, then lost 34-15 in Manitoba the next week, as the Bombers racked up 488-448 total yards in the two games. Blue Bombers are 3-4-1 vs Western Division; Riders are 6-2 against the eastern teams, if you count Winnipeg as eastern team. In their visits to Toronto this seaso, Winnipeg lost both times it visited Rogers Centre, while Saskatchewan won its only visit.

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Canadian Football League – Hot Lines

CFL
Hot Lines

Grey Cup Final


Sunday, November 25

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Makin’ Canadian bacon: CFL Grey Cup preview and picks
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Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (-11, 49)
Sunday, Nov. 25, 5:30 p.m. ET

Winnipeg is 10-10 against the spread (ATS) this season including the playoffs, inferior to Saskatchewan's 12-8 ATS mark. But the Bombers covered the spread in the teams' head-to-head meetings this season, both as a 6-point underdog in Regina in Week 10 (a 31-26 Saskatchewan win on a last-second Kerry Joseph touchdown) and as a 2 ?-point home favorite a week later (a game the Bombers won 34-15).

Winnipeg is a heavy underdog on Sunday because of Glenn's broken arm. Former Boise State star Ryan Dinwiddie starts at quarterback and, if nothing else, he?s kept the press entertained throughout the week. He's confident-bordering-on-cocky and has an accurate arm, both attributes you like to see in a quarterback.

More importantly, however, Dinwiddie has proven game-breakers surrounding him on offense. None will be more important on Sunday afternoon than Charles Roberts, who finally gets a crack at a league championship.

I like Saskatchewan to walk away with the Cup on Sunday afternoon, I just don't like the Riders laying 11 points. Winnipeg's defense came up huge last week in the Rogers Centre, so expecting Saskatchewan to hang a double-digit margin of victory on Sunday is a bit unreasonable.

Picks: Blue Bombers +11 and over 49


First quarter line: Saskatchewan -3, 9 1/2

A touchdown and three rouges for the over? Count me in!

Seriously, Dinwiddie showed no qualms about going deep in his relief appearance last week. The commentators in the CBC booth assumed Winnipeg would revert to a conservative game plan to protect the lead. But Dinwiddie showed he isn't afraid to make plays and head coach Doug Berry showed he isn't afraid to ask his young quarterback to do the same.

Saskatchewan will try to blitz Dinwiddie into submission, which should leave plenty of one-on-one situations downfield. Whether it's Milt Stegall, Derick Armstrong or Terrence Edwards, I?m counting on one of the Bombers receivers to find the end zone early.

First-quarter picks: Blue Bombers +3 and over 9 1/2


First half line: Saskatchewan -7, 24 1/2

Once the Bombers score early, however, I'm counting on the Riders to step up and take what the entire province of Saskatchewan has been waiting for since Dave Ridgway booted the Cup-winner in 1989.

Head coach Kent Austin quarterbacked that champion Riders squad and will make sure this year?s version plays with intensity. Austin returns to the city where he was frequently criticized as an offensive coordinator, which would make a win a little sweeter. There's no criticizing the job he has done in Regina this year. He doles out equal amounts of encouragement and criticism and has the respect of his team.

Joseph is Austin's No. 1 weapon on offense and also the No. 1 reason I like the over throughout this game. He?s the league's top run-pass double-threat and has full confidence in receivers D.J. Flick and Andy Fantuz.

The Bombers' pass defense looked vulnerable at times in Toronto last week (don't put too much stock in the final score, Michael Bishop was off on a lot of passes). As long as Joseph has quick enough feet to evade the rush, and he does, then he should be able to make hay with his receivers.

First-half pick: over 24 1/2


Last week: 1-1

Year to date: 36-40

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