Thursday Trends and Indexes 11/22

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Thursday, November 22





Good Luck on day #326 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

FOOTBALL
We are providing football trends & indexes that are available through Monday.

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[pm530]

Six-pack for Thursday

NFL trends for Week 12 to chew on.....

-- Detroit is 9-3-1 as home dog in NFC North games.

-- Cowboys covered five of last seven as favorite of 10+ pts

-- Colts covered seven of last ten as double digit favorite.

-- Browns covered eight of their last ten games.

-- Seahawks are 7-14 in last 21 tries as road favorite.

-- Cardinals are 2-7 as favorite csa NFC West rivals.

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Thursday's List of 13: Tell your statistics to shut up.....

13) Lions lost last three Thanksgiving Day games, and five of last six; this is first time in at least a decade they played home game the week before Turkey Day, which would seem to be pretty significant advantage.

12) This is sixth time in last seven years Cowboys played at home week before Thanksgiving.

11) Favorite covered four of Detroit’s last five Thanksgiving games, five of Dallas’ last six. Cowboys are just 4-5 in last nine Turkey Day games.

10) Detroit’s last five Thanksgiving Day games stayed under total; five of last six Dallas games went over total.

9) So far this season, in nine games, Lions forced 29 fumbles (recovered 13); Jets have forced five (recovered two).

8) Bengals are only team in NFL allowing six yards per play. Steelers are allowing 4.2.

7) Pittsburgh is allowing 40.4 yards/game less than any other team in league; they’ve also been on field 21 less plays than anyone else (489). Browns have been on field for 636 plays, most in NFL.

6) Dallas is averaging 6.5 yards/play on offense; Patriots are at 6.4, Packers 5.9. 49ers average 3.9.

5) Seattle opponents have committed twice as many penalties (66 for 477 yards) as Seahawks (32 for 215).

4) Bills are 5-5, despite gaining second-fewest yards (268.3/ game) in league.

3) There have been 29 fumbles in Raven games this season; Baltimore players recovered only nine of the 29; they’ve lost 15 of their own 20 fumbles, which is big part of why they’re not contenders.

2) The importance of turnover ratio is one of biggest reason football is so tough to handicap; Patriots, Chargers are both +11, leading NFL. Rams, Raiders are both -11. ‘nuff said.

1) Scary stat for Falcon fans: Atlanta is a bad team, but they are +9 in turnovers. Teams with that good a turnover ratio are not supposed to be 3-7.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index




NFL
Dunkel Index

Green Bay at Detroit
The Lions have had chances to put themselves in a better position for the NFC wild card race, but have failed to capitalize in the last two weeks. Detroit suffered an ugly loss at Arizona in which the offense committed five turnovers (four by QB Jon Kitna) and had minus-18 yards rushing. They followed that up with an equally anemic effort at home last weekend against the Giants in which Kitna threw three more INTs. Now Detroit faces a Green Bay team that ranks fifth in the league in points allowed (15.9) and has ridden the arm of Brett Favre to the fourth-ranked offense (370.3 ypg). The Packers look like the pick to cover (-3) according to Dunkel, which has Green Bay favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22

Game 103-104: Green Bay at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.240; Detroit 130.805
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Under

Game 105-106: NY Jets at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 123.304; Dallas 140.518
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 17; 44
Vegas Line: Dallas by 14; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-14); Under

Game 107-108: Indianapolis at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 145.751; Atlanta 125.516
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 20; 37
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 11; 42
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-11); Under


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25

Game 199-200: Denver at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 131.773; Chicago 130.697
Dunkel Line: Denver by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2 1/2); Under

Game 201-202: Tennessee at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 127.902; Cincinnati 131.705
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 45
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2); Under

Game 203-204: Buffalo at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 130.096; Jacksonville 136.677
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 7 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+6 1/2); Over

Game 205-206: Oakland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.388; Kansas City 128.466
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3; 37
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 6; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+6); Over

Game 207-208: Houston at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.663; Cleveland 127.999
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Over

Game 209-210: Seattle at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 130.938; St. Louis 123.062
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 8; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Under

Game 211-212: Minnesota at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 127.649; NY Giants 136.204
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 8 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7); Over

Game 213-214: New Orleans at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 126.406; Carolina 128.508
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 2; 38
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under

Game 215-216: Washington at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.835; Tampa Bay 136.493
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 10 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over

Game 217-218: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 115.797; Arizona 132.837
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 17; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10; 38
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-10); Over

Game 219-220: Baltimore at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 122.195; San Diego 138.216
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 16; 45
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9); Over

Game 221-222: Philadelphia at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 128.278; New England 158.994
Dunkel Line: New England by 30 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: New England by 22; 50
Dunkel Pick: New England (-22); Over


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19

Game 223-224: Miami at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 122.486; Pittsburgh 139.708
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 17; 37
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 16; 41
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-16); Under

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Thursday, November 22
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GREEN BAY (9 - 1) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/22/2007, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (2 - 8) at DALLAS (9 - 1) - 11/22/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 7) - 11/22/2007, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, November 25
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DENVER (4 - 5) at CHICAGO (4 - 6) - 11/25/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (6 - 3) at CINCINNATI (3 - 7) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (5 - 5) at JACKSONVILLE (7 - 3) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (2 - 8) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 6) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-47 ATS (-30.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (5 - 5) at CLEVELAND (6 - 4) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (6 - 4) at ST LOUIS (2 - 8) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 5-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (4 - 6) at NY GIANTS (7 - 3) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 18-38 ATS (-23.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 6) at CAROLINA (4 - 6) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 49-27 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 70-43 ATS (+22.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CAROLINA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (5 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (6 - 4) - 11/25/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 8) at ARIZONA (5 - 5) - 11/25/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
ARIZONA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 5) - 11/25/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
BALTIMORE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
BALTIMORE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
BALTIMORE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (10 - 0) - 11/25/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 26
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MIAMI (0 - 10) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 3) - 11/26/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


Thursday, November 22nd

Green Bay at Detroit, 12:30 EST FOX
Green Bay: 10-2 ATS in road games
Detroit: 7-13 ATS off a home game

NY Jets at Dallas, 4:15 EST CBS
NY Jets: 1-6 ATS off BB ATS wins
Dallas: 10-1 Over at home off 4+ wins

Indianapolis at Atlanta, 8:15 EST NFL
Indianapolis: 6-0 ATS off BB ATS losses
Atlanta: 11-25 ATS at home off a home game


Sunday, November 25th

Denver at Chicago, 1:00 EST
Denver: 4-14 ATS vs. NFC North opponents
Chicago: 14-4 ATS vs. AFC West opponents

Tennessee at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 4-1 ATS playing on artificial turf
Cincinnati: 2-10 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Buffalo at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 5-1 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Jacksonville: 15-4 Over off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

Oakland at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Oakland: 8-25 ATS off 3+ ATS losses
Kansas City: 22-10 Under vs. conference opponents

Houston at Cleveland, 1:00 EST
Houston: 1-8 ATS away off a home game
Cleveland: 11-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points

Seattle at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 15-5 Over off a home win
St. Louis: 18-5 ATS after allowing 14 points or less

Minnesota at NY Giants, 1:00 EST
Minnesota: 14-3 Under off a straight up win
NY Giants: 21-40 ATS in November

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 EST
New Orleans: 11-3 Over as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Carolina: 0-6 ATS off a road loss

Washington at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Washington: 5-1 ATS off a division loss
Tampa Bay: 1-8 ATS off BB wins

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:05 EST
San Francisco: 1-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
Arizona: 9-1 Over off BB games scoring 25+ points

Baltimore at San Diego, 4:15 EST
Baltimore: 0-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
San Diego: 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

Philadelphia at New England, 8:15 EST NBC
Philadelphia: 3-7 ATS off a home win
New England: 8-1 ATS off a straight up win


Monday, November 26th

Miami at Pittsburgh, 8:30 EST ESPN
Miami: 0-9 ATS off a road loss
Pittsburgh: 10-2 ATS at home on Monday nights

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Week 12 NFL schedule

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Thursday, November 22
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Packers (9-1) @ Lions (6-4) — Pack won last five games, covered last four; they led by 10 at half in only loss. Lions lost last three Thanksgiving Day games, and five of last six; this is first time in at least a decade they played home game week before Turkey Day, which would seem to be pretty big advantage. Lions are 5-0 with edge in turnovers, with all those wins by 7+; they’re 0-4 if they lose TO battle, with losses by 35-31-10-6 (they won 20-17 in only game where turnovers were equal). In typical Martz Madness fashion, Lions turned ball over nine times in last two games; they’ve lost field position seven games in row. Have to force lot of turnovers to make up for that.

Jets (2-8) @ Cowboys (9-1) — Dallas won last four games, by 10-21-11-5 points; since loss to Patriots, Pokes outscored foes 69-16 in second half- they’re 6-2 vs spread as favorite this season, 4-1 SU at home, with home wins by 10-28-10-5 points. Jets upset Steelers in Swamp last week; they’re 0-3 on road, losing 20-13/17-14/38-31. They scored just two TDs on last 32 drives and averaged less than five yards/pass attempt in last three games. Dallas in Redskin-Packer sandwich vs AFC foe, so there is chance they overlook the Jets, although national TV slot would indicate otherwise. Cowboys are just 4-5 in last nine Turkey Day games; five of their last six T-day games went over total.

Colts (8-2) @ Falcons (3-7) — Indy offense struggling without Harrison, Clark; in last three weeks, they scored 18 pg (five TDs/34 drives), after averaging 32 pg in first seven games (25 TDs/67 drives). Atlanta turned ball over four times last week, first time all year they had more than two turnovers in game; at +9, they have third-best TO ratio in NFL, but are still 3-7, red flag for sure. Five of seven Indy wins are by 18+ points, but they limped to 13-10 win vs Chiefs last week, after losing two games before that. Harrington gets nod at QB for Atlanta, which tells you how fouled up Atlanta’s offense is right now. Last five Colt games stayed under total.

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Sunday, November 25
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Broncos (5-5) @ Bears (4-6) — Road trip after Monday night win (third road game in last four weeks) usually tough duty, but Broncos won last two games, scoring 27-34 points- they ran ball for 141-166 yards, ending four-game stretch where they ran ball for average of just 74.3 ypg. Chicago’s last six opponents ran ball for over 100 yards. Bears lost last three home games, giving up 28 pg; they’re -11 in turnovers at home in ’07 (+4 on road), turning ball over 15 times in those four home games. Denver is 4-0 when they pick off 2+ passes in game, 1-5 when they don’t (sluggish 15-14 win at Buffalo in Week 1 only exception) Eight of last nine Denver games went over total.

Titans (6-4) @ Bengals (3-7) — Haynesworth’s injury makes Titans vulnerable to run; they allowed 166-166 rushing yards in last two games, after allowing average of 68.1 ypg in first eight. Road game after Monday night road loss is tough spot for Fisher’s crew, but Titans have big edge on defense here, still ranking 2nd in NFL in yards allowed per game. Cincy is only NFL team allowing 6.0+ yards/play; they’ve 30th in NFL in points allowed (27.9), 31st in yards allowed (383.2/g). Titans turned ball over 10 times in last three games (-8), not good. Bengals allowed 24+ points in eight of last nine games; they’re 1-3 in last four home games, allowing 31 pg.

Bills (5-5) @ Jaguars (7-3) — Buffalo is 2-2 on road, beating sorry Jets, Dolphins, losing at Steelers (26-3), Patriots (38-7); they got whacked 56-10 at home by Pats last week, ending four-game win streak (and 5-0-1 run vs spread). How do they bounce back from that? Jags won three of last four games, have trip to Indy on deck- they’re only one game behind Colts in AFC South. Bills are 1-5 when they allow more than 14 points- they scored total of just 7.7 pg in three games on natural grass (16.2 on turf). Jaguars scored 24+ in each of last four games, scoring even when backup QB Gray was under center. Three of four Buffalo road games stayed under the total.

Vikings (4-6) @ Giants (7-3) — Minnesota needs to run ball to win; in their last three wins (3-3 since bye), they ran ball for 311-378-228 yards (in losses, 131-105-86). Shaky QB play makes it harder, yet more necessary to run it well; Vikings are 1-15 on third down last two games- last time they started same QB who started week before was month ago (Week 7). Giants won seven of last eight games after 0-2 start, losing only to Dallas; teams haven’t run that much on them, since they’ve been ahead (average of just 19.2 runs against them the last five weeks). Vikings are 1-3-1 vs spread as road dog, with away losses by 3-3-10-34 points. Over is 4-1 in Giants’ ’07 games in Swamp.

Raiders (2-8) @ Chiefs (4-6) — Oakland is 0-6 since its bye, losing by 14-2-4-7-11-7 points; they lost first meeting to Chiefs 12-10 in Week 7 at Coliseum, with KC outrushing them 126-55. Raiders are 1-4 on road, 2-3 as road dog, with away losses by 3-14-4-7 points. Chiefs are 0-3 since their bye, losing by 11-16-3 points; they lost three of last four at home. RB Johnson is banged up and Holmes is talking retirement- KC averaged less than six yards/pass attempt six games in row- their QB’s were sacked 18 times in last five games. Chiefs have only five TD’s all season on drives of less than 70 yards- they have one TD on 23 drives in their last two games. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Oakland games.

Texans (5-5) @ Browns (6-4) — Over is 9-1 in Cleveland games this season, with only one of last nine totals under 47; their last three games were all decided by three points- clearly, the most exciting team in NFL. Texans won last two games, have Schaub/ Johnson back in lineup (averaged 9.5/84 ypp last two games); they’re 2-3 on road, 2-2 as road dog, with away losses by 10-20-25 points. Browns won last four home games, scoring 38 pg (13 TDs/41 drives), but last week in Baltimore, they started four drives in Raven territory, only scored 10 points (had scored seven TDs on nine such drives previously). Over is 3-1-1 in Houston road games this season.

Seahawks (6-4) @ Rams (2-8) — Seattle heads east; Hasselbeck is banged up (might not practice this week, but is expected to play) and Alexander still out; they’re just 1-3 on road, losing at Arizona (23-20), Pittsburgh (21-0), Cleveland (33-30), winning only at Candlestick (23-3). Hawks won first meeting 33-6 vs Rams five weeks ago (-8.5), forcing five turnovers, with seven sacks and holding Rams to 221 total yards. Rams won last two games, after 0-8 start; their offensive line is still awful (Bulger was sacked six times in SF), but at least they have Jackson back (133-102 rushing yards in two games since bye). Rams have been outscored 159-58 in second half of games this season.

Saints (4-6) @ Panthers (4-6) — Carolina is 0-4 since its bye, scoring four TDs on 47 drives; they’re 0-4 at home, allowing 26.5 pg, but won first meeting vs Saints, 16-13 at Superdome, despite being outgained by 98 yards. Saints started 0-4, then won four in row, now lost last two, allowing 37-23 points; they’re 2-3 on road, but have become total passing team, running ball just 30 times for 90 yards in last two games. Saints are 0-5 if they score less than 22 points, a figure Carolina yielded in just two of last eight games (Packers, Colts). NO’s pass defense has been torched for 9.8/7.3/8.4 ypp in last three games- they failed to pick off a pass in four of last five games. Six of last seven Panther games stayed under total.

Redskins (5-5) @ Buccaneers (6-4) — Tampa is 6-0 when it allows 14 or less points, 0-4 when it does not (allowed 20-33-23-24 in losses); Washington scored 23-25-23 points in last three games, but Skins gave up 54 points in last six quarters, losing twice to division foes. Washington is 2-3 on road, beating Eagles, Jets- this is their fourth road game in last five weeks. In their last three games, Bucs allowed just 18.3/17.7/19.6 yards/drive, but young QB Campbell has impressed in recent weeks. Tampa has run ball for 124-136-162-149 yards in last four games, after averaging 88.5 over first six games. Last five Washington games went over.

49ers (2-8) @ Cardinals (5-5) — Upset alert for Arizona, which won last two games, scoring 33 pg, and now has shot at playoffs; they’re 5-1 when scoring 20+ points, 0-4 when they don’t. 49ers allowed 20+ points in four of last five games. Cardinals won three of their four home games, have 10 takeaways in last two games, after having total of one in previous three. Niners lost eight games in row after 2-0 start, including 20-17 win over Redbirds in Week 1, when 49ers gained just 194 yards; they lost last four road games, by 21-18-4-24 points. Five of last seven SF games stayed under total. Word is Smith isn’t healing well, so another week of the Trent Dilfer era, which should be good news for Cardinals.

Ravens (4-6) @ Chargers (5-5) — Baltimore lost last four games, turning ball over 14 times in last three (-11); after scoring 14-7-7 in consecutive losses, Boller played well last week (22-41/240) but at end, Raven defense gave out., Browns got lucky doink off upright, and losing skid grew to four. Home side covered last five San Diego games. Chargers are 4-1 at home (3-1 as home favorite), with wins by 11-14-25-2 points, but their play on road has been so bad, it put their season in jeopardy. Bolts have 42-91-79 rushing yards in last three games, as Rivers’ QB play has been so spotty that teams are ganging up on run. Six of last nine Charger games went over the total.

Eagles (5-5) @ Patriots (10-0) — New England playing at very high level, covering nine of ten games; they are legitimate threat to go 19-0, which is why this is first 20-point spread in NFL game in six years- they’re 4-0 vs spread at home, winning by 38-14/38-7/34-17/52-7 scores. This is just second home game for Pats in seven weeks, with four road games and bye in there. They’ve scored 6+ TD’s in four of last five games. McNabb is iffy here; Eagles won three of last four games, but trailed last three at half- they’re 0-4 if they allow more than 6.2 yards/pass attempt. Patriots’ worst games this year are pair of 7.0 ypp (Browns, Colts) so Philly has to do something no one else has done, to pull off biggest upset since 1974.

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Monday, November 26
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Dolphins (0-10) @ Steelers (7-3) — Cameron inserted rookie QB Beck as starter at weird time, with games at Philly, Pittsburgh; he was 9-22/109 yards passing last week, in first NFL start. Pitt is just lot better at home (5-0, scoring 30.8 pg, 4-1 as home favorite), a lot better (2-3 on road, scoring 23.2); they did lousy job of protecting Big Ben last week- Jets had seven sacks. Miami is 0-6 away from (2-2-2 as road dog) with losses by 3-3-3-10-3-10 points. In last four games, Fish lost field position battle by 13-20-17-12 yards, really awful numbers. Not sure if Ricky Williams plays here, after being reinstated by NFL; how good shape can he be in? Only three of ten Miami losses are by 17+ points (Dallas, Patriots were two of three). mmmmm

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Thursday, November 22

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Tips and Trends
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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (FOX | 12:30 PM ET)
League insiders remain impressed with a very stout Green Bay defense that is only giving up 15 points per game but will be tested against the Lions offense that ranks 14th in the league. SLIGHT EDGE: PACKERS
League insiders believe that Green Bay’s fundamental matchup advantage on offense will be too much for Detroit to overcome. Detroit comes into this contest with one of the worst passing defenses in the league (ranked 30th in the NFL, allowing 258 yards per game), which will be a big problem against the NFL's second-ranked passing attack. EDGE: PACKERS
One team insider is classifying this contest as a must win for the Lions if they hope to make the playoffs. Detroit comes into this contest at 6-4 and cannot afford to lose because Arizona is right behind at 5-5, as the Lions have lost to both of their nearest Wild Card competitors. EDGE: LIONS
Green Bay has failed to cover in 11 of the past 12 times it has been favored against the Lions in Detroit.
Green Bay has been outscoring their opponents by a 27-15 average on the road this season where they are 4-0 SU & ATS.
Lions are 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS at home this season
Packers are 13-1 SU & 11-2-1 ATS their last 14 games


New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)
One league insider believes that this game could get very ugly as the Jets defense ranks 28th in the league, and they must try to find any way to stop the NFL's second-ranked offense. Although New York was able to stack the line to stop the run last weekend (allowing Pittsburgh 112 yards on just 3.4 yards per carry), Dallas has a very balanced attack, so the Jets won’t have the luxury of keying in on any particular run or pass. EDGE: COWBOYS
This is a very tough situational setting for Jets rookie quarterback Kellen Clemens to be making his road debut. BIG EDGE: COWBOYS
The Jets are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, giving up 27 points per game.
The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 home games for Dallas.


Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (NFL | 8:15 PM ET)
Some team insiders believe that the Colt’ might be in some trouble this season. The injury bug has hit Indianapolis hard this season as the team played without five starters last weekend: WR Marvin Harrison (knee), LT Tony Ugoh (neck), DT Raheem Brock (neck) and LBs Freddy Keiaho (ear) and Tyjuan Hagler (neck). The Colts also lost All-Pro DE Dwight Freeney (ankle) for the season the week before at San Diego. EDGE: FALCONS
Atlanta's search for a respectable quarterback will be the story again this weekend. The Falcons are off an embarrassing 31-7 home loss to Tampa Bay, and QB Byron Leftwich was nothing short of terrible, completing just 15 of 28 passes for 106 yards with two interceptions and two fumbles. Again Joey Harrington came off the bench to finish and will get the call as the starter this week. EDGE: COLTS
Similar to the Colts, the Falcons are also nursing many injuries, as DT Trey Lewis appeared to sustain a season-ending knee injury, and OT Todd Weiner aggravated his left knee, which already needed surgery this season. TE Dwayne Blakley (neck, head) and DT Rod Coleman (arm, hand) also went down. EDGE: COLTS
The UNDER is 5-0 in Indy's last 5 games.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Preview

NFL

Thursday, November 22

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NFL Preview
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What bettors need to know: Thanksgiving Day


Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3 1/2)

Packers' incentive program

The league is investigating whether Packers players offered payments to teammates for achieving specific defensive goals.

Green Bay cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Al Harris reportedly offered to compensate defensive linemen more than $500 each if they limited Vikings star running back Adrian Peterson to less than 100 rushing yards in a game two weeks ago. A similar incentive was reportedly offered last Sunday for a contest against the Carolina Panthers.

"I don't see anything wrong with it, but obviously the league has a policy and they're enforcing it," Woodson told reporters. "That's all I can say about it."

The league forbids player- or team-specific bonuses under what it describes as bounty rules.

"I didn't know the league had a strict policy on it as far as what you can do," Woodson continued. "But I know one thing about our team: Nobody went out there trying to hurt anybody, even if there was some sort of bounty. We're not those type of players. So we're not worried about that at all."

Detroit gives and takes

Packers head coach Mike McCarthy told reporters that games involving the Lions have been packed with turnovers. Detroit, leading the league in takeaways with 30, is also tied for third in turnovers with 25 mishaps.

"They've generated turnovers in every single one of their football games," McCarthy told reporters. "That's impressive from a defensive standpoint. They've also turned the ball over. I think there's only been one game where they haven't turned it over. That is a big factor in the outcome of their games in my opinion."

The Lions have forced a league-leading 32 fumbles, recovering almost half of those blunders.

"They do an excellent job of stripping the ball, it's a technique," McCarthy said. "They spend a lot of time on it. That's the backbone to that defense. They play with vision to the quarterback, vision to the football. They do an excellent job in pursuit. They play fast. They're a much faster team at home than on the road."


New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (-14)

Owens playing "out of his mind"

Dallas wide receiver Terrell Owens has eight touchdowns in his last four games. He's also notched 100-yard receiving efforts in those contests.

"I'm just playing out of my mind right now," Owens told reporters after Sunday?s game. "This is one of the greatest games, really, that I feel like I've played in, just me coming through in the clutch. I pride myself in trying to make plays for the team. When my number's called and opportunities are there for us to make plays, I know that's my job."

Owens has more than 1,000 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns this season. The outspoken star is averaging more than 17 yards per catch, which is four yards more per grab than last season.

Coles notes

New York could be without veteran wide receiver Laveranues Coles for its Thanksgiving Day tilt with Dallas.

Coles, who is leading the team with six touchdowns, suffered a high ankle sprain in the Jets' 19-16 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday at Giants Stadium.

The speedster has just one touchdown in his last five contests. Coles had his best performance of the season against the Cincinnati Bengals on Oct. 21, putting up 130 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Jets head coach Eric Mangini would not elaborate on Coles' status for the Thanksgiving showdown.


Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (+11 1/2)

Byron takes a seat

Falcons quarterback Joey Harrington, who lost his starting job in Week 7, will start Thursday for injured Byron Leftwich.

Leftwich was forced out of Sunday's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after taking a hit that hurt his tailbone.

"We took X-rays, and it's not a fracture," Falcons coach Bobby Petrino told reporters. "He couldn't participate at all today."

Leftwich, who has struggled since putting on a Falcons uniform, has a horrid 51.4 quarterback rating. He also has fewer than 250 passing yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in three starts.

Harrington has been better, but not by much. The veteran signal caller has fewer than 2,000 passing yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions in 11 contests as a member of the Falcons.

Colts players dropping like flies

The Colts placed receiver Aaron Moorehead on injured reserve with a back ailment that he suffered in last Sunday's 13-10 victory over the Chiefs. Moorehead has been Marvin Harrison's replacement in recent weeks.

Indianapolis' normally powerful attack has been ineffective since losing receivers Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez and tight end Bryan Fletcher. The Colts should get a couple of those players back in time for Thursday.

"I think we'll get some guys back this week and I think we'll get a few more after that," Colts coach Tony Dungy told reporters. "I think Anthony Gonzalez, Tony Ugoh and Bryan Fletcher could all be back this week."

Harrison, though, is expected to miss his sixth straight contest with a knee injury.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Turkey Day Notes

NFL
Notes


Thursday, November 22

NFL mismatches: Where to find the edge in Thursday’s games

If you are trying to find an edge for your Thanksgiving bets, look no further. The following is a selection of Thursday’s NFL games where mismatches in key areas could have a major impact on the outcome.

Packers QB Brett Favre vs. Lions’ pass defense

Brett Favre has sliced through every team he has faced this season and is second only to Tom Brady in passing yards (2,975) this season. The veteran QB seems certain to have another bumper day when he faces a Lions pass defense that ranks among the worst in the league.

Favre has rolled back the clock, throwing for more than 300 yards in six different games this season. In his most recent outing, the 38-year-old racked up 218 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 31-17 win over Carolina – Green Bay’s fifth straight victory.

The Lions’ biggest struggle this season has been defending the pass. They are giving up more than 257 yards per game in the air and their secondary shows no signs of improvement. Detroit has dropped its last two games, yielding 544 passing yards and five passing TDs in the process.

Green Bay is an 3 ½-point road favorite on Thursday.


Cowboys running back Marion Barber vs. Jets’ rush defense

Marion Barber leads the Cowboys with 610 rushing yards and six TDs this season. A Jets rush defense that is allowing more than 148 yards per game is unlikely to be able to deal with Barber’s strength and speed.

Barber’s best attribute is his versatility. As well as leading the team in rushing, he has clocked up 189 receiving yards and a receiving TD. He’s also returned three kicks for 58 yards and is averaging 4.84 yards per carry.

The Jets have the NFL’s 28th-ranked rush defense, a big reason they have lost nine of their 11 games this season. Their defense against the run has been severely weakened by season-ending injuries to starting linebackers Jonathan Vilma and Cody Spencer.

Despite a strong showing in its upset win over the Steelers on Sunday, New York has allowed six different running backs to rush for more than 100 yards this season.

Dallas is a 13 ½-point home favorite in his contest.


Colts receiver Reggie Wayne vs. Falcons’ pass defense

Reggie Wayne has been on fire in recent weeks, catching 35 passes for 576 yards and two touchdowns in the past five games. The All-Pro receiver is the main target of quarterback Peyton Manning and should continue to produce against the struggling Falcons this week.

Wayne is the third-ranked receiver in the league, with 945 yards and six touchdowns in 10 games. He has hit the century mark in passing yards in four games this season and is averaging more than 15 yards per reception.

The Falcons secondary did a decent job against the pass early in the season, but has since struggled. In the past five games Atlanta has allowed an average of 197 passing yards per game.

Indianapolis is an 11 ½-point favorite on the road.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday


Thursday, November 22

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NFL Gameday
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NFL Thursday Gameday

A Thanksgiving tripleheader feast from the NFL should keep sports fans and bettors entertained all day Thursday as Green Bay visits Detroit, the Jets fly into Dallas and Indianapolis travels to Atlanta.

Green Bay at Detroit

The Packers won their fifth straight to improve to 9-1 on the season last week, dropping Carolina 31-17 as a 10-point favorite. Brett Favre added three more touchdown passes to his record haul and completed 22-of-30 passes for 218 yards. Tight end Donald Lee had two touchdown receptions, while running back Ryan Grant kept the running game going with 88 rushing yards on 20 carries.

The Lions continued their recent stumble last week with a 16-10 loss to the Giants as a 2.5-point underdog. Jon Kitna threw for a huge 377 yards with a touchdown, but also had three interceptions. Running back Kevin Jones had trouble getting going again and only rushed for 25 yards on 11 carries. Shaun McDonald led all receivers with seven catches for 113 yards, but also fumbled and had an easy catch go through his hands that ended up as a New York interception.

The Packers defeated the Lions twice last season and covered the spread in both wins. In their first meeting this season, Green Bay is a 3-point favorite.

NY Jets at Dallas

The Jets are coming off a shocking 19-16 overtime win over Pittsburgh as a 9-point underdog. Jets’ kicker Mike Nugent kicked four field goals, including the game-winner from 38 yards out in OT. Quarterback Kellen Clemens handled the Steelers’ defense while completing 14-of-31 passes for 162 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Thomas Jones had a strong day versus the Steelers' formerly top-ranked run defense, rushing for 117 yards on 30 carries. The real difference maker in the win was the Jets’ defense, which recorded seven sacks. Prior to that game the Jets had only nine sacks in the entire season. One minus for New York in the win was an ankle injury to wide receiver Laveranues Coles, that has him listed as doubtful for today’s game.

The Cowboys got past Washington 28-23 as an 11-point favorite last week. Tony Romo completed 22-of-32 passes for 293 yards with four touchdowns and an interception. All four of Romo’s touchdowns were caught by Terrell Owens, who finished the game with eight receptions for 173 yards. Owens may be in for another busy day, as Cowboys’ No. 2 receiver Patrick Crayton is questionable with a sprained ankle.

This is the first time the Jets and Cowboys have squared off since 2003, when Dallas defeated New York 17-6 as a 3-point underdog. In Thursday’s game the Cowboys are a 14-point favorite at home.

Indianapolis at Atlanta

The Colts escaped with a 13-10 win over Kansas City as a 15-point favorite last week, thanks to a fourth-quarter field goal from Adam Vinatieri. The usually reliable Colts’ kicker was off his game early in the win, as he missed two field goals before connecting on his final two of the game. Quarterback Peyton Manning also had an off-game, completing only 16-of-32 passes for 163 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. Joseph Addai scored the Colts’ only touchdown while rushing for 72 yards on 21 carries. Colts’ receiver Marvin Harrison sat out again last week due to a knee injury and is listed as questionable again for Thursday’s game.

The Falcons lost badly to Tampa Bay 31-7 as a 3-point underdog last week. Byron Leftwich’s return to the starting QB job proved unsuccessful after he completed 15-of-28 passes for 106 yards with two interceptions. Joey Harrington replaced Leftwich and completed 16-of-20 passes for 139 yards with a touchdown. Harrington has already been named the starter for Thursday’s game.

The Colts last played the Falcons back in 2003 when Indy crushed Atlanta 38-7 as a 7.5-point favorite. The Colts are a 12.5-point favorite in Thursday’s game.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL
NFL poolies' cheat sheet


Thursday, November 22

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Cheat Sheet
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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Thanksgiving Day

Green Bay at Detroit (+3 ½)

Why Packers Cover: Have won eight of the last ten meetings. Are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games and 4-0 ATS in last four games overall. Brett Favre has thrown for 1,321 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions in four road games this season.

Why Lions cover: Last meeting Favre threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. Packers running back Ryan Grant has been limited in practice this week and is questionable for the matchup. Home team is 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Packers are 2-8 ATS in last 10 meetings in Detroit.

Total (47): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Detroit.


N.Y. Jets at Dallas (-14)

Why Jets cover: Coming off win over Steelers as 9-point underdogs. Road team has won four of five meetings. Have covered in both games since Kellen Clemens was named starting quarterback.

Why Cowboys cover: Are second in the NFL in passing TDs (27) and total TDs (37). Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Thomas Jones has rushed for only 131 yards and no touchdowns in his last five games against the Cowboys. New York should be without Laveranues Coles who is doubtful with an ankle injury.

Total (47 ½): Under is 12-3 in Cowboys’ last 15 home games versus a team with a losing road record.


Indianapolis at Atlanta (+11 ½)

Why Colts cover: Lead league in rushing touchdowns. Falcons are 25th in NFL in rushing yards allowed. Could get left tackle Tony Ugoh back from injury. Both of Atlanta’s starting defensive tackles have been placed on injured reserve.

Why Falcons cover: Have covered in five of last seven games. Home team has won four of last six meetings. Colts only averaging 18 points per contest in their last three games and are 0-5 ATS versus a team with a losing record.

Total (41): Under is 5-0 in Colts’ last five games and 5-1 in Falcons’ last six.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Notes

NFL


Thursday, November 22

NFL game day buzz: Thanksgiving Day betting notes

Green Bay at Detroit (+3 ½)

The Lions are 11-5-1 all-time against Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. Green Bay has won five of the last six meetings in this series, and 11 of the last 13.


N.Y. Jets at Dallas (-14)

The Cowboys are 6-2 against the Jets, who will be visiting Dallas for just the third time.


Indianapolis at Atlanta (+11 ½)

The Colts are 12-1 against Atlanta, but lost 28-21 in their only visit to the Georgia Dome in 1998, Peyton Manning's rookie season.

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[pm530]