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**Sports Guru** · 09-16-2003, 12:38 AM

WINNING POINTS NEWSLETTER

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:

BEST BETS
**** Miami over Buffalo by 20
*** Houston over Kansas City by 7

PREFERRED SELECTIONS
New England over New York Jets by 16
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh by 7

NFL TOTALS:
UNDER: Baltimore at San Diego
OVER: Cleveland at San Francisco
UNDER: Tampa Bay at Atlanta

SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:

BEST BETS
**** PITTSBURGH over TOLDEO* by 24
*** NOTRE DAME* over MICHIGAN STATE by 22

PREFERRED SELECTIONS
Penn State* over Kent State by 15
Ohio State* over Bowling Green by 4
Texas over Rice* by 39
Arkansas* over North Texas by 8

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RATED SELECTIONS:

****BEST BET
*Miami over Buffalo by 20

After their shocking loss to Houston opening week, the joke about the Dolphins was they wouldn’t have to wait until December to experience their annual meltdown. The Dolphins have a lot to prove here. Not only is this a double revenge spot for the Dolphins, who lost to Buffalo twice last year, but this is their first home game since the embarrassing defeat to the Texans. Traditionally the Dolphins are at their best at home the first month of the season. Miami is 13-4-1 ATS at Pro Player Stadium, including covering seven of their past nine. Even though this is the Sunday night game, the Dolphins still have a strong weather edge being used to South Florida’s humidity. The Bills haven’t played in 89-degree weather since 1995. They are a cold weather, carpet team. This is a hot weather game on grass. While the Bills’ defense definitely looks improved, they have yet to go against a running back as talented and powerful as Ricky Williams. We see the Dolphins controlling the ball with Williams on the ground. But we also see Miami QB Jay Fielder occasionally taking some shots downfield against a mediocre Buffalo secondary with Chris Chambers, who is off to a great start. Fielder is at his best when he can pick and choose his spots. The Bills intercepted just 10 passes last season. On defense the Dolphins should be much better than they were opening week now that newcomers Junior Seau and Sammy Knight have had a couple of games to get used to their new teammates. The Dolphins should be able to put plenty of pressure on slow-footed QB Drew Bledsoe, who no longer has Peerless Price to throw to. With Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain, the Dolphins have top quality cornerbacks, who can smother Eric Moulds. While Travis Henry has scored touchdowns, he’s a fumbler and not in the class of Williams. The Dolphins defense is too strong and aroused for the Bills in this spot. MIAMI 27-7.

***BEST BET
*Houston over Kansas City by 7

The undefeated Chiefs take to the road now fresh off satisfying victories against San Diego and Pittsburgh. The Chiefs are averaging an impressive 34 points per game, and their defense appears much improved from last season. Then again it couldn’t be much worse. The last team who took the Texans lightly paid the price. That was Miami on opening week. The Texans finally get to play at home now for the first this season. They will be aroused. So will their fans. The problem for the Texans isn’t defense. Coach Dom Capers has an excellent defensive mind. He’ll have some tricks ready to unfold. The key to stopping Kansas City is controlling Priest Holmes. He’s looked great so far with no problems from last year’s hip injury. However, QB Trent Green hasn’t put up big numbers yet, and TE Tony Gonzalez is hindered by a foot injury. Take away Holmes, and the Chiefs could be in for a lot of trouble. The Texans will try to do this since they play a 3-4 defense designed to limit the run while blitzing the quarterback from different angles. The Texans made Ricky Williams a non-factor in their Week One victory against the Dolphins. What makes the Texans a viable upset choice is their offense appears greatly improved. Houston’s offensive line now can protect big-armed quarterback David Carr. Given time, and working against a below average defense that ranked on the very bottom last year, Carr can hook up with his good receivers. Rookie Andre Johnson gives Carr a big target across the middle, Jabar Gaffney is solid on the flank while Corey Bradford is a dangerous deep threat. Carr also has a good pass-catching tight end in Billy Miller. Stacey Mack gives Carr an upgrade at running back, too. He can pound the ball between the tackles. Hey, it’s not like the Chiefs are some elite team. They beat the winless Chargers and knocked off Pittsburgh at home. They are far from being invincible. HOUSTON 31-24.

**PREFERRED
*New England over New York Jets by 16

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has made a lot of good quarterbacks look terrible as Peyton Manning and Drew Bledsoe will attest to. Belichick’s latest example is Donovan McNabb. In this case Belichick won’t have to do much because Jets offensive coordinator Paul Hackett will do it for him. Hackett and Vinny Testaverde are a terrible fit. Hackett’s a West Coast style of coach, while Testaverde is a seven-step, old-fashion drop back type of slinger. This is reflected in how Testaverde has played under Hackett. In Testaverde’s last four starts, the Jets have averaged less than nine points. The Patriots buried New York, 44-7, on the road when Testaverde started against them last year. Meanwhile, Pats QB Tom Brady got on track with three touchdown passes against the Eagles this past Sunday. While the Patriots have yet to get their ground game going, Brady should be able to take advantage of the Jets’ old and slow linebackers. The Jets don’t have their ground game working either. Unfortunately for them, they don’t have a quarterback that can make up for it with injured Chad Pennington in street clothes on the bench. After two straight road games, the Patriots finally get to play their first home game. They’ll make the most of it with their many new defensive faces like Roosevelt Colvin and Rodney Harrison who came over via free agency along with nose guard Ted Washington, who they acquired from Chicago for a draft choice. NEW ENGLAND 26-10.

*Cincinnati over Pittsburgh by 7

These aren’t the Bengals of David Shula, Bruce Coslet and Dick LeBeau. They’re much better. Honest. The Bengals narrowly lost to the Raiders last week on the road, out-gaining the defending AFC champions, 400-237. The Bengals definitely are improved under first-year coach Marvin Lewis. The Steelers, on the other hand, may have taken a step back. Now Pittsburgh lives and dies with its passing attack. They have become one-dimensional. The Bengals are ranked No. 1 against the pass, though. They held Denver’s Jake Plummer to 115 yards passing opening week, and last Sunday kept passing machine Rich Gannon to just 103 yards through the air. Gannon is not Plummer. He threw for the most yards last season. The Steelers defense is not nearly as good as Ravens rookie QB Kyle Boller made them look in Week One. Their secondary is vulnerable and they still could be without their top pass rusher, linebacker Joey Porter (check status). Bengals WR Chad Johnson is an emerging star and Peter Warrick is playing better than ever for Cincinnati. Star RB Corey Dillon hyperextended his knee, but the Bengals have a solid backup in Brandon Bennett if Dillon can’t go. The problem for Cincinnati has been turnovers. They have committed two or more in five straight games. If QB Jon Kitna can limit turnovers the Bengals stand an excellent chance because the team is more organized and disciplined under Lewis. CINCINNATI 24-17.

****BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over TOLDEO* by 24
Having disposed on M.A.C. lightweights Kent State and Ball State in workmanlike fashion, now it is time for Walt Harris to cut his team loose as they go on the road against better competition. And when we look at the way that they played on the road LY, and then add the maturity of the current group (especially QB Rod Rutherford), this becomes a mismatch. The 2002 tables may “only” show a 4-2 record for the Panthers on the road, but some of the wins were dominating on the scoreboard (48-24 at Syracuse and 38-13 vs. Oregon State in the Insight.com Bowl), while some were dominating in the stat columns (out-gained Virginia Tech by 22-15 in first downs and 483-285 in total offense). And yet the two losses might have been the best performances of all. They man-handled Notre Dame to the tune of 21-10 in first downs and 402-185 in total offense in a bitter 14-6 scoreboard loss at South Bend, and they took the game to Miami on the road like few have in the last decade, leading by a shocking 26-13 first down count in a hard-fought 28-21 defeat. With almost all of the key contributors back we can take advantage of a cheap price here against a Toledo team that has been more lucky than good so far. Rockets were dominated by a combined 16 first downs and 231 yards in lined games vs. U.N.L.V. and Marshall, but were +6 in takeaways to escape with a split. Fundamentally-sound Panthers only have one turnover in 150 offensive snaps, and use their dominance in the trenches much like they did in that 37-19 home win over Toledo last year. PITTSBURGH 41-17.

***BEST BET
NOTRE DAME* over MICHIGAN STATE by 22
It is no secret that line value is the key to winning in this game, and for all of the subtleties that we have to use at times to find over-rated or under-rated teams, every once in a while there is one handed right to us. In theory, what happened to Michigan State last week should not be mathematically possible. A 12-point favorite, playing at home, and holding a 5-0 takeaway advantage, is an incredible long-shot to lose a football game. Unless, of course, we can establish what will look rather obvious after they lose again here – THEY WERE NEVER SUPPOSED TO HAVE BEEN FAVORED IN THAT CATEGORY IN THE FIRST PLACE. In time John L. Smith will turn things around in East Lansing, but for now there are shortages in terms of both talent and discipline left over from the Bobby Williams era. That did not show in these easy early wins over weak sisters Rutgers and Western Michigan, but the immaturity was evident in the late collapse vs. Louisiana Tech, and now the physical problems come into play this week. The national statistics will show that they are #1 in the nation against the run, but that is more a result of who they have played than any particular strengths. Now they take to the road for the first time against someone that will line up and take the ball right at them, and they will not hold up well. Meanwhile the disciplined play of the Fighting Irish will take advantage of any and all Spartan mistakes, especially with a chance to have a little breathing room on offense after being ravaged by the Michigan defensive front. NOTRE DAME 35-13.

**PREFERRED
Penn State* over Kent State by 15

We’ve had some difficult defeats hrough the years, but perhaps none as hard to swallow as Nebraska coming up short vs. Penn State on Saturday night. The game went almost exactly as we had projected, with the Cornhuskers dominated the Lions in the trenches on both sides of the ball, mashing them to the tune of 337-41 in rushing yards. But a blocked FG, interception in the end zone, failed PAT, fumble to set up the only Penn State TD, etc., cost us what should have been an easy win. But at least it keeps the value fair to play against Joe Paterno’s squad, and we will come right back against the Lions here, with Joshua Cribbs and the Golden Flashes having the ability to control the ball for long stretches against this soft defensive front. Any time we find an underdog in this price range that can move the chains and work the clock we are going to step in, and the lack of explosiveness from the Penn State offense also helps to keep this close. PENN ST. 35-20.

Ohio State* over Bowling Green by 4

Yes, we could make most of the case here that the Falcons will come in with a much more intense focus than the Buckeyes, and will also be much fresher off of the events of last Saturday. After all, the schedule sets up for Bowling Green to play this as the “Game of the Year”, with a bye immediately on deck. But there is more than that going for the visitors here. With a 4-0 SU and ATS record on the road against BCS conferences the last three season they will come in with plenty of confidence, and given the incredible struggles of the Buckeyes to run the football (Maurice Hall and Lydell Ross combined for a remarkable three yards on 17 carries vs. N. C. State last Saturday), there is not the usual fear of an underdog in this price range being physically dominated. Josh Harris has the athleticism to cope with the Ohio State defense and make some plays, which takes this right to the gun, something the Buckeyes are growing accustomed to. OHIO STATE 26-22.

Texas over Rice* by 39

Usually when a talent gap is this wide, and the game is being indoors under perfect conditions, the underdog needs for the favorite to lack motivation in order for the game to be close. Unfortunately for Ken Hatfield and his Owls, that will not be the case this week. Not only is there no home field advantage at all (more folks will be wearing burnt orange than any other color in the stands), but Hatfield must face a Texas team that will be snarling off of that defeat vs. Arkansas, and with the Longhorns only having Tulane at home next week, there is absolutely no distraction coming in. With the pressure that he will feel this week Mack Brown should actually be seeking a margin, rather than coasting vs. an out-manned side, and having seen plenty of option all ready this season the tactical preparations should be much easier than usual to put together. Once Rice falls behind, that awful passing attack has no chance at the back door. TEXAS 49-10.

Arkansas* over North Texas by 8

Houston Nutt earned another bar in his coaching stripes with that tremendous game plan that led to a rather easy win over Texas. It was the type of plan that showed a lot of prior preparation, which can happen when only Tulsa was on the schedule prior to meeting the Longhorns. But now there are going to be some of the usual after-effects of getting too high for a particular opponent. Now there is the very real prospect of coming up flat, especially with an S.E.C. revenge affair at Alabama next week, and North Texas is just the kind of opponent that can be dangerous in a spoilers role. Mean Green has a defense that can stand toe-to-toe here, and having played at Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, T.C.U., Kansas State, Arizona State, Texas A&M, L.S.U., Boise State and Air Force, to name a few, over the past four seasons there is nothing about Little Rock that will intimidate them. Not enough firepower to win, but they take this to the very limit. ARKANSAS 28-20.

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