New England PATRIOTS Lines for Remaining Games

[dave T]

This is what I calculated the lines to be if the games were played TODAY, give or take a 1/2 point or so:

NE -17.5 vs Phi
Ne -15.5 at BAL*
NE -11.0 vs Pit
NE -23.0 vs Nyj
NE -24.5 vs Mia**
Ne -10.5 at NYG*

*These two games are potential "go against" situations for the Pats according to the venerable 3010 DBL PK System. If the Pats "peak" (30-10) vs Philly, they would be a "go against" when they play the Ravens. If not, if they peaked in BOTH the Jets and Dolphins games, they would be play against at the Giants. This would be ideal to see if the system could beat the best team ever (imo). The system has beat some of the best teams in NFL history including the '79 Steelers, '85 Bears, '93 49ers, the list goes on and on. Despite how good the Pats are this year, only the COWBOYS have double peaked this season; only the Bears last season, and only the Seahawks in '05. All three IMPLODED after the double 30-10 peak as is usually the case. Even the 1985 Bears IMPLODED when up against the 3010 DBL PK. I hope it comes up. It'll be cool to see who wins...the Greatest team EVER, or the Greatest system EVER.

**If this line is correct, it would be the biggest opening line ever in the NFL. The 1993 49ers, while "closing" at 23.5 or 24.0 (depending on the book), it "opened" at 21.0 or 21.5. Btw, they were a "go against" according to 3010 system. Cincinnati led the game 8-7 at halftime and held on for the double-digit "cover" losing to San Fran 21-8.

P.S.- The lines are what I think they WOULD be, not what I think they SHOULD be.

gl,
dave

[jcheckers]

Interesting Dave,
Can you please explain the significance
of the "30-10". Thanks.

[drugstuntman]

all I know is that I will play NE regardless of the line all the way thru the super bowl....I hate them, but I know greatness when I see it, and there is nobody in their class right now

[GrandPa]

They can't make the line high enough v NYJ for me to take the NYJ.

I will lay up to 45 on NE in that one. Only a fluke will prevent NE from destroying the record book in that one.

And how can you go against them in any game? They are an unprecedented ATS destroying MACHINE

[dave T]

The line on the Philly game is up to 22 already. Wow. Yeah, it's hard to go against the Pats. But trust me, there IS a number that will draw you on the other side. The biggest rout in football history was 202-0. Would you take the Pats minus 202.5? Of course not. They will get the number right sooner or later. Hard to go against them, but that's what the number is for. I think they FINALLY got the number right in this game.

The lines I posted were what I thought they WOULD be, not SHOULD be. If I were posting the lines, I developed a fairly simple "modifier" years ago to adjust for spread killers very early on. Going into this week's games, my "modifier" is 4.5, which means if I were making the line I would OPEN it at NE -22.0. If any of these games were played this weekend, the modifier, or adjustment, would be 4.5 points to the line posted and that would be the opener. So, the case of the Miami game, I would open it at NE -29.0...

...IF...

...the game were played this weekend. But the modifier changes from week to week as well as the raw line that is to be modified.

dt

[LVJimmy]

Philly line is 22 if McNabb doesn't play...18 if he does

[littlewager]

Interesting Dave,
Can you please explain the significance
of the "30-10". Thanks.

The 30 - 10 system play is when a team scores 30 or more and allows 10 or less for two straight weeks and are playing a non division game the week after always wager against that team.

It is a play that has an unbelievable record. It won this year with Buff over Dallas.

Littlewager

[ScrantonKid]

Vegas will set the lines as we (the public) perceive,or think, what the lines should be...I would not be surprised if they have the Patriots as double-digit favs the rest of the year, after watching them totally annihilate a not-so-bad Buffalo team last night.
What us chronic gamblers should always remember is that there are really three sets of numbers that the oddsmakers set for Vegas every game:
(1)the spread (ATS)
(2)the total (O/U)
(3)the moneyline(ML)
Unfortunately, not all of us have the opportunity to bet on the moneyline, but we can use it as a tool in helping us make a wagering decision. If the ATS and the ML move to a teams favor, I normally will go the other way...I always assume that Vegas will not lose two out of three...they'd much rather win two out of three.
Likewise, if the total line climbs, say from 38 to 41, and the ATS opens at 3 and moves to 6, and the ML stays at -500/+400, than it would be gambling suicide to take the favorite at minus 6 and the over in the same bet...you are better off taking the favorite and the under, or the dog outright, since Vegas rarely loses two out of three wagers.
My own thoughts are that sooner or later, the Vegas line will be inflated beyond a New England "cover", due mainly to Bandwagon Bettors. As great as New England is,(they will probably win the Super Bowl), they will eventually falter,and not cover.I think Dave-T's conception is 100% correct. It is not a matter of time, it is a matter of when.In other words, if Vegas is a glutton for losing money on the Pats every week, they will eventually call the oddsmakers out and assert that the line be adjusted for more "even" action.If the line moves in New England's favor by more than 3,I will go the other way...I don't care if its the Jets, the Fins, or the Ravens,Vegas won't allow the Pats to cover every week.If they do cover every game here on out, it is because the line was set higher than the public's perception,and the money went against the Pats, not with them.So, wait for a New England minus 23, and a NE-1200/500 moneyline, and if it climbs to minus 26, and a minus 1500/ go the other way.My own thoughts, not a system, just my own experience.(By the way, the opening lines for last night's game were New England -14.5/ O/U 47.5/ and ML -1500/500...it ended up at New England -16{+/-},46{+/-}, and -1100/750...Vegas won two out of three of those bets,people.So did I.

[dave T]

The 30 - 10 system play is when a team scores 30 or more and allows 10 or less for two straight weeks and are playing a non division game the week after always wager against that team.

It is a play that has an unbelievable record. It won this year with Buff over Dallas.

Littlewager

Thanx. Exactly. Hasn't lost since 1977 and averages about one game per season, perhaps less. I don't recall it ever having 2 games in a season, but it may have.

dt

[dave T]

Vegas will set the lines as we (the public) perceive,or think, what the lines should be...I would not be surprised if they have the Patriots as double-digit favs the rest of the year, after watching them totally annihilate a not-so-bad Buffalo team last night.
What us chronic gamblers should always remember is that there are really three sets of numbers that the oddsmakers set for Vegas every game:
(1)the spread (ATS)
(2)the total (O/U)
(3)the moneyline(ML)
Unfortunately, not all of us have the opportunity to bet on the moneyline, but we can use it as a tool in helping us make a wagering decision. If the ATS and the ML move to a teams favor, I normally will go the other way...I always assume that Vegas will not lose two out of three...they'd much rather win two out of three.
Likewise, if the total line climbs, say from 38 to 41, and the ATS opens at 3 and moves to 6, and the ML stays at -500/+400, than it would be gambling suicide to take the favorite at minus 6 and the over in the same bet...you are better off taking the favorite and the under, or the dog outright, since Vegas rarely loses two out of three wagers.
My own thoughts are that sooner or later, the Vegas line will be inflated beyond a New England "cover", due mainly to Bandwagon Bettors. As great as New England is,(they will probably win the Super Bowl), they will eventually falter,and not cover.I think Dave-T's conception is 100% correct. It is not a matter of time, it is a matter of when.In other words, if Vegas is a glutton for losing money on the Pats every week, they will eventually call the oddsmakers out and assert that the line be adjusted for more "even" action.If the line moves in New England's favor by more than 3,I will go the other way...I don't care if its the Jets, the Fins, or the Ravens,Vegas won't allow the Pats to cover every week.If they do cover every game here on out, it is because the line was set higher than the public's perception,and the money went against the Pats, not with them.So, wait for a New England minus 23, and a NE-1200/500 moneyline, and if it climbs to minus 26, and a minus 1500/ go the other way.My own thoughts, not a system, just my own experience.(By the way, the opening lines for last night's game were New England -14.5/ O/U 47.5/ and ML -1500/500...it ended up at New England -16{+/-},46{+/-}, and -1100/750...Vegas won two out of three of those bets,people.So did I.

Good stuff. You can be sure they will be double digit faves. Already the numbers suggest just that, even before adjustments, just based on the numbers.

dt

[littlewager]

With a win next week they will be able to start wearing their division champion hats.

[ScrantonKid]

With a win next week they will be able to start wearing their division champion hats.

And will they rest there starters in "meaningless"games, and will they get backdoored? Stay tuned,as Vegas will adjust the lines on these "meaningless" games to account for the Pats vulnerbility when they have clinched the division and home field advantage.If two out of three of these lines move "North",I will play "South".If you bet with Vegas, you will win. Not all the time, but most of the time.