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Here's my week 11 plays fellas. All my past plays are at www.Byeweekpicks.com (not a tout I assure you)
2007
18-20-1
Units
+.23
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
May have a 4:00 Play also
3* N.Y. Jets +10 over Pitt
I love the Jets in this game primarily because Pittsburgh has played poor on the road versus lesser opponents and does not deserve to be a double digit favorite. How short the betting public's memory is. It was just weeks ago that Pittsburgh lost to Arizona and Denver (who has one of the league's worst defenses) on the road. Don't let Pittsburgh record and stats fool you, they have played absolutely no one (their strength of schedule is 30th in the league). Pitt averages 4.43 YPR (7th) and 8.2 YPPA (3rd). Their defense allows 3.7 YPR (7th) and 5.5 YPPA. I don't see them playing to these stats as they are traveling on the road off a huge win versus the Browns.
The Jets stats are less than stellar, but I am not betting them because of their stats but because Pitt is overrated and don't deserve to be such a big favorite and great situational factors favoring the Jets. They average 3.6 YRP (24th) and 6.6 YPPA (22nd). They allow 4.4 YPR (25th) and 8.2 YPPA (31st). The Jets are coming off six consecutive losses and a bye which puts them in prime position for an upset here. In fact, underdogs off 6 or more losses are 77-41 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 25 years. Also, teams with a winning record (Steelers) are just 62-103-3 ATS as road favorites of 5 points or more against poor teams off consecutive losses. The most amazing trend is 18-0 ATS since 1980! There are 20 more great trends favoring the Jets. I love the Jets, the only reason I am not making this a 4* is because of the stats.
2* Baltimore +3 over Cleveland
Cleveland is definitely the better team in this contest, but this is a typical NFL game where Baltimore wins though they are inferior. Cleveland is coming off a huge emotional loss and will be in for a letdown. On the other hand Baltimore is coming off 3 losses including two divisional losses including a home loss against Cincinnati. Don't let the Bengals game fool you, because Baltimore committed 6 turnovers last week which is the big reason for the defeat. Cleveland has a good offense this year, but their defense is pitiful. Cleveland is dead last in the league allowing 29 PPG (versus teams that have combined to score 23). They allow 4.6 YPR (29th), 7.2 YPPA (20th), and 273 YPG in the air (2nd to last in NFL). Even Baltimore's offense will not have trouble moving the ball against this team. Cleveland does score a lot of points, but dissecting their offense they are not overwhelming in either category. They average 4.16YPR (13th) and 7.5 YPPA (10th). Also, the last 3 games their offense has taken a hit as they are averaging only 5.3 yards/play (as opposed to greater than 6 yards/play the prior 6).
Baltimore's offense is poor, but their defense is strong. Baltimore only averages 3.93 YPR (20th) and 5.54 YPPA (31st). But, facing the Browns terrible Defense I think they will move the ball better than average. Boller will be starting in place of McNair which will give them a boost. Baltimore allows 203 YPG passing (12th) and they are 1st in the NFL allowing only 2.7 YPR. This is also a revenge game for the Ravens as they lost 27-13 week 4 in Cleveland. There are 3 trends favoring the Ravens. One trend is: Teams coming off back-to-back games scoring 9 points or less (Baltimore) playing at home against an opponent that has given up 38+ points over last two games (Cleveland) are 20-8 (71.4%) ATS the last 10 years. I'll take Baltimore in a 2* play.
1* T.B. -2.5 (-130) over Atlanta (Buy 1/2 point)
Tampa is a very good team this year and should handle the Falcons. The Falcons offense is very bad as they only manage 3.8 YPR (21st) and6.5 YPPA (23rd). Defensively they are terrible against the run allowing 4.2 YPR (22nd) and average against the pass allowing 6.7 YPPA (10th). Atlanta is coming off a divisional underdog victory against the Panthers and are in prime position for a letdown. To show you how bad the Falcons are they are an amazing +8 in turnover ratio and still managed to win only 3 games.
Tampa is coming off a bye and will be ready to face their division foes this week. They are a very well rounded team. Offensively they gain 4 YPR (16th) and 7.5 YPPA (9th). Defensively, they allow only 3.77 YPR (10th) and 6.14 YPPA (5th). There is a 33-2 straight up winner trend favoring the Bucs (if they win they will likely cover). Take the Bucs in a 1* play. I would buy the 1/2 point in this contest, if you get it at -3 it is still a 1* play.
2007
18-20-1
Units
+.23
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
May have a 4:00 Play also
3* N.Y. Jets +10 over Pitt
I love the Jets in this game primarily because Pittsburgh has played poor on the road versus lesser opponents and does not deserve to be a double digit favorite. How short the betting public's memory is. It was just weeks ago that Pittsburgh lost to Arizona and Denver (who has one of the league's worst defenses) on the road. Don't let Pittsburgh record and stats fool you, they have played absolutely no one (their strength of schedule is 30th in the league). Pitt averages 4.43 YPR (7th) and 8.2 YPPA (3rd). Their defense allows 3.7 YPR (7th) and 5.5 YPPA. I don't see them playing to these stats as they are traveling on the road off a huge win versus the Browns.
The Jets stats are less than stellar, but I am not betting them because of their stats but because Pitt is overrated and don't deserve to be such a big favorite and great situational factors favoring the Jets. They average 3.6 YRP (24th) and 6.6 YPPA (22nd). They allow 4.4 YPR (25th) and 8.2 YPPA (31st). The Jets are coming off six consecutive losses and a bye which puts them in prime position for an upset here. In fact, underdogs off 6 or more losses are 77-41 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 25 years. Also, teams with a winning record (Steelers) are just 62-103-3 ATS as road favorites of 5 points or more against poor teams off consecutive losses. The most amazing trend is 18-0 ATS since 1980! There are 20 more great trends favoring the Jets. I love the Jets, the only reason I am not making this a 4* is because of the stats.
2* Baltimore +3 over Cleveland
Cleveland is definitely the better team in this contest, but this is a typical NFL game where Baltimore wins though they are inferior. Cleveland is coming off a huge emotional loss and will be in for a letdown. On the other hand Baltimore is coming off 3 losses including two divisional losses including a home loss against Cincinnati. Don't let the Bengals game fool you, because Baltimore committed 6 turnovers last week which is the big reason for the defeat. Cleveland has a good offense this year, but their defense is pitiful. Cleveland is dead last in the league allowing 29 PPG (versus teams that have combined to score 23). They allow 4.6 YPR (29th), 7.2 YPPA (20th), and 273 YPG in the air (2nd to last in NFL). Even Baltimore's offense will not have trouble moving the ball against this team. Cleveland does score a lot of points, but dissecting their offense they are not overwhelming in either category. They average 4.16YPR (13th) and 7.5 YPPA (10th). Also, the last 3 games their offense has taken a hit as they are averaging only 5.3 yards/play (as opposed to greater than 6 yards/play the prior 6).
Baltimore's offense is poor, but their defense is strong. Baltimore only averages 3.93 YPR (20th) and 5.54 YPPA (31st). But, facing the Browns terrible Defense I think they will move the ball better than average. Boller will be starting in place of McNair which will give them a boost. Baltimore allows 203 YPG passing (12th) and they are 1st in the NFL allowing only 2.7 YPR. This is also a revenge game for the Ravens as they lost 27-13 week 4 in Cleveland. There are 3 trends favoring the Ravens. One trend is: Teams coming off back-to-back games scoring 9 points or less (Baltimore) playing at home against an opponent that has given up 38+ points over last two games (Cleveland) are 20-8 (71.4%) ATS the last 10 years. I'll take Baltimore in a 2* play.
1* T.B. -2.5 (-130) over Atlanta (Buy 1/2 point)
Tampa is a very good team this year and should handle the Falcons. The Falcons offense is very bad as they only manage 3.8 YPR (21st) and6.5 YPPA (23rd). Defensively they are terrible against the run allowing 4.2 YPR (22nd) and average against the pass allowing 6.7 YPPA (10th). Atlanta is coming off a divisional underdog victory against the Panthers and are in prime position for a letdown. To show you how bad the Falcons are they are an amazing +8 in turnover ratio and still managed to win only 3 games.
Tampa is coming off a bye and will be ready to face their division foes this week. They are a very well rounded team. Offensively they gain 4 YPR (16th) and 7.5 YPPA (9th). Defensively, they allow only 3.77 YPR (10th) and 6.14 YPPA (5th). There is a 33-2 straight up winner trend favoring the Bucs (if they win they will likely cover). Take the Bucs in a 1* play. I would buy the 1/2 point in this contest, if you get it at -3 it is still a 1* play.
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