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Im going to call this a GOY because its a 10* which is my highest rating. There are a bunch of game I am also considering for 10 stars over the next two weekends so I am going to officially call this my Weekday GOY so I dont have people thinking I put GOYs out every week. This is my first 10 Unit CFB play this year, as I am very selective.
10* Nevada +7
This line has dropped some since it opened and thats because of the Hawaii QB, Colt Brennan's injury. It was announced today he is probable for the game though so you may see this line creep back up a bit, but I am fine with the where it is nowand here are my thoughts.:
This is a great spot for Nevada. They have had extra time to prepare for this game, while Hawaii comes off of a short week and may be looking ahead to WAC Champ Boise State who the take on next week. Not to mentioned a decent PAC10 foe, Washington State, to end their regular season. Hawaii is tops in scoring at 50.2 points per game but Nevada isnt far behind at 15 with 37.3. More importantly to me and a lot of the reason I am calling for an upset is that in four full games since redshirt freshman quarterback Colin Kaepernick took over for the injured Nick Graziano, Nevada has averaged 43.8 points and they are 3-1 in those games with the only loss being a 67-69 overtime loss at Boise State,at Boise State as a 27 point underdog! Also just Kaepernicks second game. In addition, this series has been dominated by the home team. These two teams have played 11 times with three of them being at Nevada and Nevada is 3-0 here. Nevada has been also good in the past with extra time to prepare as the Wolfpack are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games following a bye week and short weeks have not been good to the Warriors as they are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six Friday games. Furthermore Hawaii is 3-13 ATS on the road against teams with winning records and 4-4 ATS in November games. Ranked teams do not come into Nevada very often and their crowd should be fired up. Also Hawaii is leaving a tropical climate of 70s and 80s degree temperatures to come to Reno where they are calling for temperatures in the 30's at gametime. Add that to the altitude advantage Nevada has and these are some reasons for Nevada's dominant home field advantage in this series and also reasons why Hawaii's numbers are what they are playing on the road in the WAC late in the year. Finally, even if Brennan does play I believe that could make the play even stronger. Yes, he is a superb talent, but anyone that saw that vicious hit last week could and should agree that his bell is still rung and probably will not be able to focus and concentrate up to his normal playing level which that timing offense relys so heavily on. Not to mention that he will be more prone to leaving the game with any kind of knock to the head as to not risk him for a potential BCS bowl game. And if he does start the game and does get knocked out or leaves for precautionary reasons the potential is there for the offense (especially that type of offense) to stall. So whether he plays or not, I call for the outright upset.
Good Luck to eveyone.
10* Nevada +7
This line has dropped some since it opened and thats because of the Hawaii QB, Colt Brennan's injury. It was announced today he is probable for the game though so you may see this line creep back up a bit, but I am fine with the where it is nowand here are my thoughts.:
This is a great spot for Nevada. They have had extra time to prepare for this game, while Hawaii comes off of a short week and may be looking ahead to WAC Champ Boise State who the take on next week. Not to mentioned a decent PAC10 foe, Washington State, to end their regular season. Hawaii is tops in scoring at 50.2 points per game but Nevada isnt far behind at 15 with 37.3. More importantly to me and a lot of the reason I am calling for an upset is that in four full games since redshirt freshman quarterback Colin Kaepernick took over for the injured Nick Graziano, Nevada has averaged 43.8 points and they are 3-1 in those games with the only loss being a 67-69 overtime loss at Boise State,at Boise State as a 27 point underdog! Also just Kaepernicks second game. In addition, this series has been dominated by the home team. These two teams have played 11 times with three of them being at Nevada and Nevada is 3-0 here. Nevada has been also good in the past with extra time to prepare as the Wolfpack are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games following a bye week and short weeks have not been good to the Warriors as they are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six Friday games. Furthermore Hawaii is 3-13 ATS on the road against teams with winning records and 4-4 ATS in November games. Ranked teams do not come into Nevada very often and their crowd should be fired up. Also Hawaii is leaving a tropical climate of 70s and 80s degree temperatures to come to Reno where they are calling for temperatures in the 30's at gametime. Add that to the altitude advantage Nevada has and these are some reasons for Nevada's dominant home field advantage in this series and also reasons why Hawaii's numbers are what they are playing on the road in the WAC late in the year. Finally, even if Brennan does play I believe that could make the play even stronger. Yes, he is a superb talent, but anyone that saw that vicious hit last week could and should agree that his bell is still rung and probably will not be able to focus and concentrate up to his normal playing level which that timing offense relys so heavily on. Not to mention that he will be more prone to leaving the game with any kind of knock to the head as to not risk him for a potential BCS bowl game. And if he does start the game and does get knocked out or leaves for precautionary reasons the potential is there for the offense (especially that type of offense) to stall. So whether he plays or not, I call for the outright upset.
Good Luck to eveyone.
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